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Subject: 2015 RIBC AAA ESPN - Draft Rationales
Posted by: Jaydog
- [3216916] Mon, Mar 30, 2015, 11:23
Going to fire up a quick draft rationale. would love as much participation as possible. Even those who do not want to go pick by pick, a short response talking about general strategy, and perhaps your favorite and least favorite picks would be fun to look through. Here goes... |
| 1 | Jaydog
ID: 3216916
Mon, Mar 30, 2015, 13:42
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I had the last position in the draft spot selection round, and ended up with #12. While I would have preferred to pick a bit earlier, I ended up being very happy with my choice.
1.12: Edwin Encarnacion, 1B, TOR
My short list for this spot was Rizzo, Tulo, Bautista, and Edwin. My interest really waned after those 4, so I was very happy when Edwin survived. Elite power in an improved lineup (Martin likely now batting ahead of him, and Donaldson behind).
2.05: Hanley Ramirez, SS, BOS
Would have seriously considered Scherzer or Strasburg here, but had Hanley targeted from the get go. Expecting 4 category production (with a few steals sprinkled in) from a SS (playing OF). Bust potential is decent given injury risk, but 1st round upside if he stays healthy.
3.12: Adam Jones, OF, BAL
Adam Jones is a perennial entry on my "do not draft list" partially because of his poor OBP, but mostly because he always seems to get drafted by the early 2nd round. To get his production at the end of the 3rd round was hard to pass up. Elite production in three categories, with a few steals, and no signs of slowing down. Also, nice to have a player with a long history of good health (knock on wood). I'll have to keep in mind his poor OBP when drafting players later on, but the trio of Edwin, Hanley, and Jones gives me a real nice head start in the power categories.
4.05: Corey Kluber, SP, CLE
After missing out on Strasburg or Scherzer, and therefore anticipating that pitching may start going off the board a bit earlier than expected in this draft, I decided to jump on Kluber here. The last of the "elite" strikeout pitchers, coming off a cy young season. Don't expect him to replicate last season, but even if I get 90% of last season, he's still worth the 4th round pick as the anchor of my staff. Had Kluber not been available, I'd have probably waited several more rounds. Holland and Carlos Santana were the next two in my list.
5.12: Delin Betances, RP, NYY
I struggled with this pick all the way until pressing the "ok" button, and continued to second guess myself all draft. At the start of the draft I had hoped to get one of Chapman, Kimbrel, and Holland given their immense K ratio's, and stranglehold on the closers job. Failing at one of those 3, I decided on Betances. His strikeout numbers rival anyone in the game, although his lock on the closers role is a bit iffy. At the time of the pick, he was rumored to get the first shot at closing, however there were also reports that he'd be splitting saves with Andrew Miller. I figured that his strikeout rates make him plenty serviceable even when not getting saves, and went ahead with the selection. Drafting Betances here meals I'll have to jump on Andrew Miller a little earlier than I normally would have.
6.05: Mark Melancon, RP, PIT
Still second guessing my Betances pick, I figured I'd go all in on saves. Melancon was the last closer available in the top tier, and with 22 picks until I choose again, I was very exposed to a closer run. The closer run didn't happen, but I'm still happy with the pick. If Betances closes, Melancon should give me a nice head start on that category, and if he doesn't, Melancon puts me into the middle of the pack. I probably would have selected David Wright here if available.
7.12: Neil Walker, 2B, PIT
With a good start on my offense, and having two closers locked up, I had a lot of flexibility in this choice. I decided to look at the differential in stats between the top guy available at each position, and those below him, and settled on Walker. I had him ranked well higher than any other 2nd baseman on the board. Good OBP and SLG (elite as a 2nd baseman), and it's very possible that he bats cleanup for the Pirates giving him a ton of RBI opportunities.
8.05: Carlos Carrasco, SP, CLE
It's starting to feel like SP's are going a bit earlier than I expected and closers are going a bit later. I really missed the boat on that one. Feeling a trend, I decided to snatch up my second starting pitcher here. Would have gone with Gio, but when he want Carrasco was at the top of my board. There's not a long track record of success with Carrasco, but with the potential for elite K's with good ratio's, I had to jump.
9.12: Devin Mesoraco, C, CIN
Noticing a seemly large gap between the top two catchers (Mesoraco and Gattis), and the next few catchers (McCann, Gomes, Molina, etc...) I decided to pounce on one. Gattis probably provides a bit more power, but at a potentially dismal OBP. Already having Adam Jones weighing my OBP down, I decided to sacrifice some power and go w/ Mesoraco. His spot in the batting order will determine his value as I've seen him as high as 4th, and as low as 7th.
10.05: Jayson Werth - OF, WAS
Werth had been at the top of my list for a few rounds now, but I had been playing the differentiation game, and there hadn't been much between Werth and the next few OF's on my list. With a few more OF's off the board I was down to Werth or Gordon. Werth enters the season a little banged up, although he shouldn't miss much time, and once healthy provides very strong 5 category production in a stacked Washington lineup. He also should have an elite OBP to help prop up Adam Jones. I was close to taking Alex Gordon, but Werth's OBP is what sealed the deal.
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| 2 | Jaydog
ID: 3216916
Mon, Mar 30, 2015, 14:09
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11.12: Chase Headley, 3B, NYY
My pre-draft strategy had be targeting either Longoria, Wright, or Zimmerman at 3B, but I missed out on all three. The next three on my list were Headley, Aramis Ramirez, and Pedro Alvarez. Given my interest in high OBP guys, I hoped to avoid Pedro, and felt that making sure I either ended up with Chase or Aramis was my best bet. Not expecting anywhere near Headley's 2012, but if I can get a ~750 OPS from a weak 3B position, I'll consider that a win.
12.05: Andrew Miller - RP, NYY
Taking Betances in the 5th, I couldn't risk missing out on the NYY saves situation, so decided this was as long as I wanted to wait for Miller. If he splits save chances with Betances, I'll have both sides of the closer spot, but even if he doesn't, Miller should provide elite K/9 numbers with solid rankings limiting his downside. Would have loved to wait another round, but saw that he went in the 12th in the RIBC and didn't want to risk losing out.
13.12: Dexter Fowler - OF, CHC
Looking at my team, I feel very good with my power, but am definitely lacking runs and steals. Fowler should help me in both categories hitting at the top of a stacked Cubs lineup. His steals have been trending down, but he has the talent to steal 20 bases while scoring 90+ runs, and having a solid OBP. Three category production in the 13th round is about as much as I can hope for.
14.05: Joe Nathan, RP - MIN
This was more of a pick due to the lack of other interesting options than an interest in Nathan as a closer. I had hoped that Gyorko or Asdrubal would survive 8 picks, but neither did. Nathan was terrible last year, but still racked up 35 saves. He enters the season with the job, and the Tigers should have plenty of save opportunities. Hope he gets at least 10 before losing the job. I should have enough talent in the rest of my bullpen to deal with his likely terrible ratios.
15.12: Michael Morse - 1B, MIA
This pick was my biggest dissapointment of the draft so far. I had been eyeing Billy Butler for a while now, and was ready to pounce with Adam Lind as my fallback plan. Figures that they both went the two picks just before mine. Still needing a MI, and not liking any of the available options after Morse I jumped on him. Like his dual eligibility, and hoping he gets plenty of RBI chances hitting behind Giancarlo.
16.05: Jose Quintana - SP, CHI
I had two choices with this pick. Quintana or Soria, who would have served as a nice handcuff to Joe Nathan. I ended up going with Quintana as my 3rd SP who should provide decent enough strikeouts and good ratio's on an improved White Sox team. Was hoping Soria would make it back to me in round 16, but alas he was taken with the next pick. Still happy with Quintana and the value he gives in the 16th round.
17.12: Curtis Granderson - OF, NYM
At this point in the draft I needed to start filling out my remaining holes. On offense I needed a 4th OF, MI, and UTIL. There were a few options for me, but settled on Granderson hoping that being reunited with his former hitting coach will bring back his power stroke. Last year was concerning for him, but he'll no doubt bat in the top half of the Mets lineup, and has the potential to hit 20+ HR's with 80+ RBI's, which would provide good value as a 4th OF.
18.05: Dallas Keuchel - SP, HOU
Felt like with my top three starters I had a good start on strikeouts, so Keuchel looked to be a nice fit for my staff. Tough ballpark in Houston, but the team is better around him, and he seems to do a good job keeping the ball in the park. Hoping for modest strikeouts, but good ratio's. Didn't hurt seeing that Guru snagged him in the 13th round in his draft...
19.12: D.J. LeMahieu - 2B, COL
My list of target MI's had all been dried up. I had hoped for either Aaron Hill or Micah Johnson, with Jace Peterson as my sleeper candidate, but alas all three are off the board. Don't love LeMahieu, especially because it looks like he'll bat towards the bottom of the order, but at least he won't kill my OBP, which is more than can be said about most of the MI options remaining.
20.05: Ervin Santana - SP, MIN
Love Santana's strikeout potential as a 5th starter. His ratio's have been a bit up and down, but moving to MIN should help in that department.
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| 3 | blue hen
ID: 01052416
Mon, Mar 30, 2015, 15:04
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Good stuff. Impressed at the depth here.
Without going pick by pick, just want to note that outfielders and closers both went slowwwwly in this draft. To wit, I could have had Jason Heyward with my 5th pick. Sensing the closer run, I took Robertson. The closer run never came, and I wound up with Colby Rasmus as a starting outfielder.
My best picks:
- 2.13 Harper/3.04 Yelich. The two guys I had desperately been targeting at 2.13. Both up and comers; I expect both to be high in MVP voting this year.
- 8.13 Rollins/9.04 Andrus. With no middle infielders entering round 8, I was worried. This turned out quite well.
- 20.13 Wieters/21.04 Zunino. Decent chance I have the two best catchers in baseball, both drafted 20 or later. Good example of why you should wait for catchers.
No-so-good picks:
- 5.04 Robertson. Only because it could have been Heyward.
6.13 Gray. He was clearly the best SP available. But I could have waited. There was a lot of SP depth later in the draft.
13.04 Lawrie. He could be great, and is a decent gamble at 13. But still plenty of 2B many, many rounds later.
16.13 Singleton. He's got a big future, but looks like he may get sent down. And I already had Goldy/Napoli and had several OF spots to fill.
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| 4 | Seattle Zen
ID: 1610533022
Mon, Mar 30, 2015, 17:00
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Thanks for starting the thread, Jaydog. It will be interesting to watch how Encarncion/H Ramirez compare to Carlos Gomez/R Cano this year.
This is a running diary I keep as I draft:
For the past four years I have spent more effort preparing for the RIBC than the year before. Made my way from AA to AAA to The Show last year. I spent so much time writing down projections from various sources, reading books on fantasy baseball strategy, reading analysis and weeding out noise. And despite all that work, I got demoted just like most people do up there. I had a terrible draft and a horrible season on the waiver wire. I couldn’t even bring myself to write up an end of the year summary.
So this year my cliché is “Less is More”. I suffer from the human condition, a series of biases that pollute my reasoning when it comes time to draft. It starts in January when I start my research and my bias creates groves which get more pronounced the more I study. So, maybe if I study less, open my mind more, I won’t insist upon drafting some moron. One can hope.
It’s early March and I’ve done so very little outside of read a few articles here and there. The great thing about slow drafts – they are slow, plenty of time to weigh options as the draft unfolds.
Last year I made a point of taking fewer risks, it didn’t turn out well. The notion that some players are “risky” while others are not is a fallacy. Jay Bruce hits 30 home runs and knocks in 100 every year, until he doesn’t. Troy Tulowitzski gets hurt every year, except… I’m looking for bargains amongst the players the market calls “risky” this year and hope for the best because the best out of them is a whole lot of profit.
I went with the highest available draft slot and this year it was #10. Plan to take the best bat available or Kershaw. Really wanted Joey Batts and when he was taken, I had to take some time to decide between 1.10.10 Carlos Gomez and Easy E Edwin Encarnacion. A week earlier when I made my top 30 list I had EE above Carlos, but I started to be concerned about EE’s age and nagging health issues. I also have a strong tendency to draft hitters with strong ratios and that often leads to teams with poor steals totals. Gomez’s OBP is not first round stuff, but the other four are. Those 30 to 40 steals allow me to draft a no steal big bat middle infielder, I don’t know, like Robinson Cano?
2.7.23 Cano was a target of mine at 23. He is even better in RIBC than 5X5 because his walk rate is excellent and his slugging is a lot better than his home run total. I probably would have taken King Felix Hernandez if he was available. When pick 22 was up, both Jose Altuve and Cano were left and I was torn. I already had Gomez, if I took Altuve, I wouldn’t need steals the rest of the draft. And Jose had an amazing 830 OPS last season. But… he doesn’t take a walk, so if you hit .340, no big deal, but drop that down to .300 and you are not getting on base at a rate that will lead a short dude to second round value. Cano has one of the best OPS regardless of position. The M’s offense will be better this season, he will certainly score more runs this year, don’t know how well the leadoff and second batters will fare, so maybe not 100 rbi.
Looking at the first two rounds, I have to say that taking Joey Votto 14th and Chris Davis 25th, seems like last year didn’t happen. I know Anthony Rendon is everyone’s darling, but I don’t see it. Looking at the second round, it was one of the strangest I can remember, there seemed to be a lot of reaches in my opinion. Have a feeling that lots of people will end up mentioning those picks as disappointments in their end of the season write ups – Rendon, Strasburg, Davis, Dickerson, Springer, Harper (but Blue Hen is used to that) and Wong.
Third round, hope Starlin Castro pays off for WG as he would have rather had Desmond. I was really hoping Freddie Freeman would fall to me and he nearly did. As my pick came up, I had a list of ten bats all of which I would be happy with. There is only 13 picks in between my 3rd and 4th rounds and I couldn’t really decide. Adrian Gonzalez appealed to me with a good OPS and great RBI totals. Adam Jones slipped a long way in this draft, but for good reason, we are all so damn smart, we aren’t going to ignore his horrible OBP. He stopped stealing bases last year and that detracts from his value more than most people realize. Still, he was hard to pass at 42. Looking at the other three leagues, 3.10.42 Aroldis Chapman never made it to pick 55. Guru took him at 46 in the Show. They say it is not a reach when you take a player at a spot that you are sure he would not come back around and I felt that way about Chapie. I’ve never taken a RP before I took a SP, never took a RP in the third round of a draft, but Chapie is something else. The man has a 15 or 16 k/9 and in inning limited leagues, that is sweet music. Plus, so many relievers lose their job during the year, he won’t. I pulled the trigger and I will say that it was difficult seeing Jones, Reyes, Upton and especially Cargo come off the board, but I got excited when Adrian Gonzalez was still available, damn it Wilson!
When it really comes down to it, 4.7.55 Prince Fielder vs. Adrian Gonzalez is just a coin flip. Heads, Gonzo has a 100 rbi and 800 OPS season and Fielder is hampered by his repaired neck. Tails, Fielder is healed, plays in 160 games like he always does and knocks in over 100 with a 380 OPB, like he did every year before last. I decided to go with the higher upside of the Prince over Albert Pujols and Victor Martinez. We’ll wait and see.
I was now focusing on a starter, only two come off the board between 55 and my pick at 74. First on my list is Cole Hamels. He has been a great pitcher, now if Philly would stop putzing around and trade the man already. I’m very happy with the Wheelmaker. 5.10.74 Adam Wainwright has had back to back awesome seasons. There was a little concern with some cartilage shaving surgery in his elbow during the offseason. It’s little things like that which cause many people to pause before drafting a pitcher, I take that pause as profit. He was the 14th starter off the board but I suspect he will end up in the top ten. Zimmerman and Teheran were the next two on my list, then it was a big drop off in my mind. Matt Holliday was also a serious consideration here.
I’m looking for the best player at this point. I’m not interested in David Wright or Pedroia, they have been living on their reputation for years. Looking at short stop, I see that even with only five guys gone, the cupboard looks bare. 6.7.87 Zobrist will be hitting second in Oakland and he is a OBP beast with sneaky slugging, his value really increases in RIBC. Don’t know if he will contribute in steals or not, but I like the other four categories for him much better than for any other middle infielder.
With Ryan Zimmerman off the board, I have decided that third base is going to be the last position I fill on this team. The dreck is foul down there, it can wait. Kris Bryant would have gone earlier if this draft was done on April 1st, he is killing it in AZ and his legend grows. I like the Jorge Soler pick, he was lights out at the end of last year. I headed into Seattle to my 12 year old local league draft and barely any picks are made. I have a queue of two closers I like a lot, Cody Allen and Steve Cishek, who totally changed the spelling of that last name, my Polish wife would tell you it should be spelled Szczek. After that I have two outfielders in mind, 7.10.106 Shin Soo Choo and Kole Calhoun. I was really disappointed last season in RIBC when I could get Choo in the second round and had to settle for Jose Bautista. Well, I’m not going to let him get away from me again. He is a OBP monster. His health last year was really hampered, but he’s back in top form and should put up much better numbers in Texas. Maybe that dumbass manager of theirs will realize that Elvis Andrus should be batting seventh and Choo second, one can only hope. I realize at this point that Carlos Gomez at 29 is the only player I have below 30. I’m not in the “cross your fingers and hope for the upside to blossom” mode this year, obviously. I think Calhoun’s exceedingly poor performance against lefties last year scares me a lot. I think he will sit against them a lot and he didn’t run much last year. A few-steals below 800 OPS outfielder is a 16th round draft pick in my book. I like most of the players taken in the 7th and 8th rounds.
After not getting my second closer in round seven, I am amazed that there are still two of my top ten closers available as my turn approached in round 8. The other RIBCs were picked clean by this point. The top two left were 8.7.119 Huston Street and Drew Storen, I really didn’t want anyone else. I am worried about Glen Perkins’ health and Papelbon’s, well, everything. If I were to take a bat, it would have been an old favorite of mine, Justin Morneau. But be warned, he just seems incapable of having back to back productive seasons and I think he is a huge candidate to be traded early, I think the Rockies want Rosario to be the everyday guy. I was hoping to get a bigger discount on Brandon Belt this season. I remember howling at the computer last year when he was picked right before me. I was dumbfounded and had to spend a few hours that night what to do (it turned out great, I took Jordon Zimmerman). I really don’t like the combo picked by Rob at the turn, Danny Santana and S Casilla. I think Casilla will lose the job, that’s what he usually does, and as much as I enjoy Santana as a Twins fan, that doesn’t seem at all sustainable.
I love watching the third and fourth tier closers come off the board while I’m waiting for something else. I have drafted 9.10.138 Hisashi Iwakuma four years in a row in RIBC. I was the only one who took him in 2012, of course I cut him when he didn’t win a job in the rotation, but watching a lot of M’s games, he quickly became my favorite player. He is a masterful pitcher, he does everything right. He is under appreciated in fantasy baseball, he is one of the few pitchers who regularly posts a sub 3 ERA and a ratio near 1. Not a great K%, but league average. Should win more games this year. I remember talking to a M’s season ticket holder in 2012 laughing, “wouldn’t it be hilarious if Iwakuma turns out to be better than Yu Darvish,” Even he said, “That will never happen.” Well, it’s happening. I also really like Alex Wood, nice pick, Wilson.
I’m ready for another outfielder and there are a lot left I like, Jason Werth is somehow still available even though he went in the top 90 in the Yahoo AAA and AA. I also like Marcel Ozuna, JD Martinez, AJ Pollock and Alex Gordon. I got my hopes up that Werth would be joining my old man’s team, but Jay Dog took him. I was all set to take Alex Gordon, he had a career fantasy year last year and I wasn’t concerned that he had off season wrist surgery, he was on schedule to open the year on Opening Day. When it was down to the wire, I looked at the KC projected line up and saw that he would hit seventh against lefties and fifth against righties, and that lineup is not that good. I noticed that 10.7.151 Melky Cabrera was over thirty and had a great season last year. Someone wrote an article that reminded me that his 2013 season was marred by the fact that he had a f’ing TUMOR in his lower back that caused massive pain. If you removed 2013 from his projections, his OPS were 800,900,800. Yes, the 900 OPS was as a Giant and he was suspended for Roids. Roids are welcome in my clubhouse, I don’t shy away, I embrace. Melky is going to bat in between Adam Eaton and Jose Abreu. I like the sound of that.
In between Melky and my next pick only one starting pitcher goes, Mat Latos, whom I like and think will succeed in Miami. This is a pattern that bodes well for me, I seem to be taking guys at the beginning of runs on that position. You can’t plan that, you just thank the fantasy gods. I’m stoked to take 11.10.170 Wacha as my third starter and my first youngster. He is healthy and a top shelf arm, keep it up. Being able to pick him after third rate closers like Mejia, Cecil, McGee and risky bats like Segura makes me happy. I was hoping to sneak Napoli later.
At this point I feel I have a strong OBP base but not SLG. I didn’t have any plan for catcher this year, looking at the bats available and my goals, 12.7.183 Yan Gomes starts to look attractive. I’ve decided at this point that third base is now garbage here on out, I have my eyes on either Lonnie Chisenhall or Nick Castellanos and there is no need to take them here. Not willing to take the risk on Yasmany Tomas. I actually like Russell Martin a little more for his OBP but since I am in need of SLG, I go with Yan can Cook. Alex Cobb seems too risky right now, I like Hughes, Kennedy, Sanchez, Ventura and Fister. I now feel deficient in steals and need a MI, so I have my eyes set on Alcides Escobar. Damn JD Ren takes him. There is only one shortstop I’m now willing to take, Eric Aybar. Do I pull the trigger now or go for my fourth starter? Looking at the grid, I figure I can wait until the 14th to take Aybar, so I have my sights on my semi-sleeper prize I always landed in my mock drafts, Mike Fiers until vampire sucks the life out of that plan. 13.10.202 Andrew Cashner went in the 11th at 170 in RIBC, and 8th round 126 in the Yahoo league. Didn’t target him this spring, but the more I read about him, the more I like him and the Padres. I was very surprised that three different SS came off the board in the next 12 picks and they weren’t 14.7.215 Aybar. I remember making the horrible mistake of taking Andrelton Simmons over him last year, ugh, what a disaster. Oh, sorry, ywk…
The Aybar pick sets up a list of series of fist pumping picks that I hope take me over the top. My queue for the 14th round was Aybar, Butler, Cuddyer. But I also knew that I had to get Chisenhall or Castellanos around this time, too. I know that I had said just above that I needed SLG, so why take 15.10.234 Butler as my corner? Well, I also need RBI and Runs and he should do that in the heart of the A’s order. Plus, they plan on playing him at first most nights and I read that his bat suffers a lot when he is only the DH and not playing in the field. I don’t expect much SLG, but a lot of RBI/RUN OBP. I liked Shoemaker, Kazmir, B McCarthy and Kris Davis and was quite glad that putts decided to fill his 3rd base with ARod. I would have taken Cuddyer if he had first base eligibility at ESPN. I have a lot riding on 16.7.247 Nick Castellanos breaking out. He was the 19th third baseman taken, but I think he is one of the few that has hidden improvement potential that most of the other don’t. I waited to the 16th round to take my first second baseman last year, Kelly Johnson, what a disaster.
I figure Cuddyer is going to be taken by Bluehen because he only has one outfielder and he and I seem to like many of the same players. I go to bed with a two player queue, Cuddyer then Desmond Jennings. Just two outfielders come off the board, Jennings to BH and WG buying the lotto ticket called Dalton Pompey. I awake from sleep at 5am and look on my phone, 17.10.266 Cuddy is mine! I can’t believe it. He went in the first half of each of the other three drafts. He is written in at 5th in the Mets line up. Don’t give me the “oh, he’s leaving Coors for the Mets” line, I have been a fan of him since he was a young bull on the Twins. The man is built like Harmon Killabrew, he may be short but he is strong. Playing with his ol’ bud David Wright, I think he will have a great year, then get hurt. He is at the head of a list of a bunch of old outfielders, Crawford, Beltran, and a part-timer in Rajai Davis. Nice pick in Aaron Hill, 17th round, he should provide a profit even if he only plays half the year.
Next on my wish list is Kennys Vargas or another bat, Aoki, Torii Hunter, this bat will fill my UTIL slot. I’m so far behind in SLG that maybe I should consider punting it unless my bats beat their power projections. I have said it dozens of times in these write ups, American fantasy players underrate Japanese players. 18.7.279 Aoki steals 20 bases a year and gets on base at a 330/340 rate. At the top of the Giants order, that should lead to some runs. I like him a lot more than Vargas, I don’t want to be the guy who falls for the shiny new bat who flashed unpredicted high results in his cup of coffee last year. That happens to me too frequently. I take Aoki and his steals and his 33 years of age and hope that Vargas will be there on the way back.
My daughter’s favorite player is 19.10.298 CoCo Crisp for his name and fro. I loved him in 2013, very underrated in this format and unappreciated because he is made of glass. Stayed away last year and it looks like everyone is staying away this year because there are reports of a balky elbow out of AZ. He went 216th in the 14th round in RIBC. I don’t even have a batting slot open, but I can’t pass on Coco at 298. He, too, was a 5am present that makes me happy. I have way more steals projected from this team than I ever have, you take the value where you can find it.
I haven’t taken an arm in the last six rounds. That’s okay, I was the third team to pick his sixth pitcher, now most teams have seven or more arms. I like RA Dickey, Ervin Santana, Kyle Hendricks, and Jake Peavy. It takes all day, but finally 20.7.311 Dickey and his 41 year old stuff joins my squad of seniors. He was taken in the 16th round at 255 in RIBC, I really have had a lot of luck in getting guys later in our draft than the ADP in the other leagues.
I go to bed with a six player queue headlined by Kyle Hendricks and then Ervin Santana. I wake up at 4am, there must have been a disturbance in the force, and I see that both are taken. Honestly, this is the first time anyone has been taken off the top of my queue in days. Third on my queue was Torii Hunter. In my predawn haze, I decide that I could use an infield back up more than a 7th outfielder, so I switch 21.10.330 Casey McGehee up to the top. He is the fattest singles hitter in all of baseball, the size of Greg Luzinski with all the power of Duane Kiper, for the older audience. I take him for the OBP, runs and RBI, my slugging is so shot, who cares.
I’m disappointed I didn’t land Kyle Hendricks, but I know that my ol’ standby will be there for me, the Other Kyle, 22.7.343 Monsieur Lohse. He has had four straight excellent seasons for wins, ERA and his ridiculously low WHIP, but he has a poor K rate, so he is shunned. I took him last year in the 18th round, he had another stellar year, now he drops down to the 22nd, sign me up. How much different is his line compared to Doug Fister? He is a perfect coupling with RA Dickey, who has poor ratios but great Ks. I’ve said this before, with so many managers taking chances on high upside guys this draft, there are some steady but boring options sliding way down the board. In years past, most of my 20th through 25th round picks are early cuts. This year I think these guys will be contributors. That said, every team takes a reliever who is next in line for saves in the hopes they hit paydirt. That is my plan here soon as two of my targets, Romo and Mujica come off the board. Should I take this shot in the dark with my next pick if 23.10.362 Torii Hunter is still on the board? Is there a possible break through MI hidden somewhere? Clay Bucholtz is the opening day starter for the BoSox against the Phillies, hell, that should be a win, maybe I should take him and make that slot a potential stream. I go with Hunter because I am a Twins fan and he should bat 4th or 5th for them this year, I’m all about those counting stats down here. I might need a seventh outfielder with the number of fragile ones on this team.
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| 5 | Seattle Zen
ID: 1610533022
Mon, Mar 30, 2015, 17:02
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tl;dr
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| 6 | MattG
ID: 45247167
Tue, Mar 31, 2015, 11:06
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Strategy: It changes every year, well not really. But one year I'll have success with a system I use and the next year I'll try it again and it will fail miserably. I participate in 2 other leagues. One is a 12 team keeper/dynasty. You can keep 12 guys year to year on a 25 man roster and if you're lucky you can match bids on the ones you "let go." The other league I participate in is a 16 team keeper that starts 23 players a week and has 6 bench spots. This is my first year, and being in that league where the rosters are so deep it really helps me in my research. My strategy has been to go after as many 5 tool players as possible but also to be mindful of shallow positions. I've also tried to find value in draft position. If I see a player I thought should be long gone I'm going to snatch him up.
1.01 Mike Trout OF LAA No brainer here for me. Best fantasy player in baseball if not the best player as well. Set it and forget it.
2.16 Kolten Wong 2B STL Took a gamble here but I see a potential 20/20 player here with a decent OBP hitting in a lineup that should score some runs. In hind sight, I could have and Should have waited, as there were other comparable if not better 2B available way later. But I really like Wong this year and felt that 2B was rather shallow.
3.01 Madison Bumgarner SP SF Best pitcher available at this point and I thought there was a huge drop off after him here. I figured he would be much like Trout, just set him and forget him.
4.16 Jay Bruce OF CIN Another potential 20/20 guy who I'm desperately hoping he can creep his obp up into the .310 or .320 area to make this worth while.
5.01 Todd Frazier 1B/3B CIN Multiposition eligible I wanted him as a 3B here then ended up drafting Machado later which allowed me to move him to 1B.
6.16 Manny Machado 3B Bal Power and High OBP hopefully plays more than he did the last 2 years. Has all the talent in the world to be a 4 tool player.
7.01 Gerrit Cole SP Pit Almost waited to grab a starter later but I saw a bunch of them getting gobbled and figured what the heck. I like Cole, when healthy he's a top 10 pitcher.
8.16 Santiago Casilla RP SF needed a closer as there weren't many good ones left, he should be lots of opportunities in SF.
9.01 Danny Santana SS Min He's the starting SS on a team that will score some runs, also should have some OF eligibility. I don't foresee him being as good as last year, but over a full season should hit for some power, steal a good amount of bases and has an opportunity for a .330 OBP.
10.16 Brian McCann C NYY I needed a C, he'll score some runs in this lineup.
11.01 Jenrry Mejia RP NYM Needed saves.
12.16 Wil Myers OF SD Surprised he was still around, he should hit for power and could steal some bases as well. Just need the OBP to come up a bit.
13.01 Justin Verlander SP Det He's no where near his old self anymore, but he will strike out some guys and with that offense he will get some wins. If his ERA is below 4.5 I'm ok with that.
Will do the rest later.
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| 7 | jaydog
ID: 28223112
Tue, Mar 31, 2015, 13:03
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Ahh, the fun rounds!!
21.12: Matt Garza - SP, MIL
As a sixth starter I always like to draft someone safe and dependable. I feel like, outside of health, you know what you are going to get with Garza. Average to slightly below average K's with good ratio's. He may not make 30 starts, but as a sixth starter I don't need him to.
22.05: Alex Guerrero - INF, LAD
Time to make some gambles. Sure, Guerrero doesn't have a clear path to AB's, but the talent is there, and the Dodgers would be crazy to play Juan Uribe over him. If he gets enough AB's, I can see Guerrero having tremendous upside and was well worth the gamble here.
23.12: Darren O'Day - RP, BAL
Not a sexy pick, but hopefully a smart one. O'Day has had elite ratio's several years in a row, and is probably the next in line for saves if Britton falters.
24.05: Eric Young Jr. - OF, ATL
Young has been in my queue the entire draft and I almost forgot about him. Should start while Melvin (BJ) Upton is out, and hit leadoff giving me a solid source of runs and steals for a month or so. Would love it if he plays the whole season and gets 30+ steals, but if he can get me 5-8 in April, he's worth the pick here.
25.12: CC Sabathia - SP, NYY
Taking a flier with my last pick that CC's added heft will lower his ERA a bit. While his ERA was ugly last year, his K and Walk rates were still very good, and in line with his past, so if he can get his ERA back into the low 4's, he'll be a very useful pitcher. If not, first guy to get dropped.
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| 8 | Seattle Zen
ID: 301361318
Tue, Mar 31, 2015, 13:21
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Final two picks and final thoughts:
24.7.375 Brandon Mauer
Time to take my stab in the dark. Mauer was a horrible starter for the M's, but once he was put in the pen, he bloomed. His fastball averages 98 in the pen and he has a nasty slider. I don't think much of Joaquin Benoit, so I like his chances of being the closer for a least a part of the season.
25.10.385 Jeurys "All in the" Familia
Stab, stab again. Could write the same blurb for Jeurys. Don't care much for Mejia and Bobby Parnell reminds me of the SNL skit about guys in New Jersey who have perfected the "no show" job scam. Actually Parnell is the spitting image of Bobby Moynihan as the guy who collects a paycheck and doesn't even show up. Familia's numbers even without saves should be good enough to roster.
I am very happy with my draft. I am eager to read Guru's thread with the average pick, first and last of the four RIBC drafts, I am certain that our league will have the most first and last players taken. I know I have a few of the last taken and Chapman was the earliest at #42.
My favorite picks are Cuddyer at 17.10, Cashner at 13.10 and R Cano at #23.
The ones I worry about the most are Shin Soo Choo at 7.10 and Prince Fielder at 4.7. Both are banking on coming back strong from injuries and both are in their thirties in completely new territory.
There was a lot of discussion in RIBC about changing the draft order slightly in order to compensate the late slots in the first round. It was not passed and some people showed that former champions drafted from slot #16. It was the middle draft slots that never won anything, they showed, so I find it rather interesting that the three teams I believe have the best teams are numbers nine, ten and eleven - ywk, me, and twilson. The teams I think did not have great drafts are GO and kemics, it was downhill after Trout. I also was scratching my head at wolfer's strategy of drafting all starting pitching at the get go, I see why you don't like draft rationale threads, commish.
Best of luck to everyone. SZ
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| 9 | mmikulka
ID: 402213118
Tue, Mar 31, 2015, 19:25
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Draft order selection:
Well, it was either 12 or 13. 13 was close enough that I could predict the turn, and was 1 slot farther from twilson and Seattle Zen, who always seem to take my favorites (and did again)
1.13: Yasiel Puig, OF, LAD
Last year I took Puig in the 2nd round and it worked out great. He's fun to watch, could conceivably still improve, and his weird postseason benching doesn't worry me at all. There are very few 5-category players, so I wanted to make sure to get one when I had a chance.
2.04: Stephen Strasburg, SP, WAS
Sometimes he hasn't pitched quite as many innings as people have wanted him too. Even then, though, he has always been spectacular whenever he pitched. If this results in 160-200 IP of his typical stuff, I'll still be happy, and since he's on a great team in a potentially historically-terrible offensive division in the NL in a pitcher's park, he could easily finish as the #1 overall pitcher this year. I also briefly considered Scherzer with this pick for the same reasons, but I trust Strasburg more. There is a slight chance of Strasburg being traded, but I just don't foresee that happening this year when their window to win is so wide open.
3.13: Jose Reyes, SS, TOR
Shortstop is as thin as ever this year, and I saw a huge gap between Reyes and the next available options. Obviously he's an injury waiting to happen, but I always tend to under-draft SB, and my rating system still had 110 games of Reyes and 52 of a Zack Cozart type as a better option than most of the middle tier guys. Hopefully he has one more moderately-healthy season in him. Also, I eventually have to stop trying to draft Ben Zobrist, and it's probably better that I cut myself off ASAP.
4.04: Craig Kimbrel, RP, ATL
Closers early and closers often!! By far the easiest way to gain a whole bunch of points on the competition is by adding that 3rd closer.
The added bonus with the small group of elite closers is that they are also strong 4-category contributors despite their limited innings:
If my late-round pitcher gives me 120 IP of 4.20/1.35 with 7 K/9, Kimbrel's line last year would turn that into 180 IP, 3.34/1.20 with 9.3 K/9... and 40+ saves.
5.13: Ian Kinsler, 2B, DET
I'm not a massive Ian Kinsler fan, but this was a long way for him to drop, and I wanted to ensure I had some quality middle infielders given the sad state of the replacement-level.
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| 10 | mmikulka
ID: 402213118
Tue, Mar 31, 2015, 19:57
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6.04: David Wright, 3B, NYM
I think last year is easy to write off as injury-related difficulties rather than age-related decline. As a Mets fan, I'm pretty cynical about their offense, but Wright seems like a very obvious bounce-back candidate, and a moderately strong bounce could get him 3rd-round numbers.
7.13: Brandon Moss, 1B/OF, CLE
He has massive power and had an .878 OPS at the All-Star break before a lousy second half (certainly not helped by a BABIP 50 points below his career average) helped everybody forget about it.
He's moving to a much more hitter-friendly park, his career walk rate of 9.5% and ISO of .212 creates a pretty high floor, and he has tremendous upside if he gets a bit of luck with BABIP and HR/FB%.
8.04: Drew Storen, RP, WAS
Closers early and closers often! Washington's division, offense, and starting pitching create such a good situation for Storen.
The obvious downside is his relative lack of security, but as a Casey Janssen owner last year, I'm not too worried about his competition. Storen was viewed as the closer of the future when he first arrived in Washington, and pitched well until getting injured. As long as he doesn't completely self-destruct early in the season, he should be a lock for 40+ saves.
9.13: Addison Reed, RP, ARI
Closers early and closers often. He doesn't have the greatest job security or play in the greatest stadium, but none of the closer options at this point are very stable, and I think Reed has a good deal of rate-stat upside. It also helps that he's still relatively young and has always been thought of as a closer.
10.04: Chase Utley, 2B, PHI
It was definitely nice to shore up such a high quality MI in a deep league like this. I have confidence that he has another year of productive starts (albeit 120ish) left in him.
I eventually regretted not taking Michael Wacha here, though. Unsurprisingly, Wacha didn't make it back around to my next set of picks, and there were still some MI options available that I liked almost as much as Utley.
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| 11 | mmikulka
ID: 402213118
Tue, Mar 31, 2015, 20:21
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11.13: Joe Mauer, 1B, MIN
I really wanted Steve Pearce. His dual eligibility would have also been great for my team's needs at the moment, and my Oriole-fan friend has been raving about him. Unfortunately, twilson scooped him up, leaving me with Mauer.
Mauer was actually a good fit for my team at that point, as I was pretty high on SLG and low on OBP. I have to hope that he does have an OBP in the .380-.410 range again, though, because he has absolutely no power for a 1B.
12.04: Collin McHugh, SP, HOU
I badly needed a 2nd pitcher at this point. If last year's stats are for real, McHugh in the 12th round is a ridiculous value. I think we can all agree that his line last season was significantly helped by luck... but his K rate and walk rate were both great, and his FIP and xFIP were in the 3.30s. I'll play along and expect a good amount of regression, but part of me still hopes he'll be able to post a 3.30/1.15 line with a strikeout per inning.
13.13: Danny Salazar, SP, CLE
Pick 13.13 was indeed bad luck, as he has been demoted to AAA. I hope he gets it together again, because when he has command of his pitches, he's a legitimate ace.
14.04: Jhonny Peralta, SS, STL
With 3 aging MI, it made sense to have another quality option for when they're injured. I'm not sure why Peralta was still on the board at this point, but I'm glad he was, as having two SS and two 2B that won't hurt my rate stats gives me both injury protection and help with my counting stats.
15.13: Hyun-Jin Ryu, SP, LAD
Ryu has been a great pitcher these last two years, and is still pretty young. He has a shoulder injury and will probably miss his first few starts, but it didn't scare me the way Alex Cobb's did. Ryu is also in a good situation to rack up wins. Last year I ignored team strength while taking pitchers, and my low W total (compared to ERA/WHIP/K rate) came back to really hurt me.
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| 12 | mmikulka
ID: 402213118
Tue, Mar 31, 2015, 20:32
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16.04: Yadier Molina, C, STL
All of my "sleeper" C candidates kept being taken: McCann and Russell Martin early, and then Ramos and Grandal right before this pick. That somehow left me with Yadier Molina, and I will gladly take him.
17.13: Carlos Beltran, OF, NYY
I was still in the hole at 1B/OF, and I'm betting on Beltran bouncing back a good amount this year. Unlike Wright, I do think there is a good amount of decline involved with Beltran, but he dropped from such a high level that I think there's plenty of room for him to be a quality fantasy player.
18.04: Ryan Howard, 1B, PHI
You know you're in a deep league and/or in trouble when you're relieved nobody took Ryan Howard. Last year he was abysmal. Last year he also had 95 RBI, which is still very much a category in this league. Let me repeat that: Ryan Howard had 95 RBI last year with an OPS under .700. This year he's healthy (so far) and has dealt with some personal issues, and maybe he can at least be competent against righties again.
19.13: Travis Snider, OF, BAL
I wanted to jump on him at this point before anybody else could. He has big power potential, and could finally have plenty of at bats. He quietly had a strong season last year, and in this lineup and pitching wasteland of a division, this screams breakout to me.
20.04: Jarrod Dyson, OF, KC
As usual, I fell behind in SB. If I wanted any chance of being in the middle of the pack, Dyson was my last hope.
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| 13 | mmikulka
ID: 07283113
Wed, Apr 01, 2015, 02:43
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21.13: Yusmeiro Petit, RP, SF
By this time, Salazar had been demoted and I currently had only 2 healthy MLB starting pitchers, one of which didn't have a season with an ERA under 7.50 until last year.
Most of the interesting SP options at this point were young enough or enough of an injury risk that they were only projected for about 120 innings. I figured that I might as well take one of the best long-relief/swingmen, and get 80-100 IP with likely significantly better/more reliable results.
22.04: Joel Peralta, RP, LAD
There were still some potential early-season saves available and I decided to add Peralta in the hope that he gets the majority until Jansen returns. At that point he could be expendable unless he's doing well enough to keep for ratio help. I also considered Mujica, but Uehara had just had a positive throwing session and was anticipating being ready for the regular season.
23.13: Josh Reddick, OF, OAK
My team needed a little extra depth at OF, and my eye had been on Reddick for a while. He has a solid walk rate, should hit towards the middle of the order, and absolutely crushes righties. Despite the small benches in RIBC, I think my team is set up very well to try some platooning this year.
24.04: Nate Karns, SP, TB
I was still at only Strasburg and McHugh to start the year, so SP/SP was a necessity for my last two picks. I like Karns primarily because of his high K rate and home park.
25.13: Jon Niese, SP, NYM
Nice and boring and reliably mediocre, with a spacious home park and a few lousy teams in his division. If his line is around 3.80/1.30 with 7 K/9 like the last 3 years, that's a solid final pick. He has also been pitching great in spring training, for what that's worth. Niese was the last remaining pitcher I liked once Chris Tillman was taken: if Niese went off the board too, I would have resorted to spot starting players until Ryu's return.
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