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Subject: RIBC 2017 AAA RATIONALES 1-5
Posted by: Judy
- [35493114] Sat, Mar 11, 2017, 19:32
Example:
1.01 Sam smasher cubbies
Awesome dude!
Only picks 1-5 here please |
| 1 | Judy
ID: 35493114
Sat, Mar 11, 2017, 19:37
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ESPN LEAGUE
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| 2 | Species
Dude
ID: 07724916
Fri, Mar 17, 2017, 18:15
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Slot #8 - so here I outsmarted myself a little bit. I had the 6th pick and decided to put a little thought into it and strategize. My initial set of projections had a big grouping of players from 5 to say 11-ish that didn't really stand out THAT much. I did have a top 8 that I really liked, and also thought Votto and Kershaw would get slipped in there, allowing someone in my top 6 to get to me. That didn't happen. A bad sign?
All that said, 5 rounds in I am loving my team and really loving being in the middle. I can really let the draft come to me and not get caught too badly on the wrong side of a position run.
1.08 Manny Machado, SS/3b, BAL
After missing out on Mookie Betts, I had to make the choice between Manny and Donaldson. In my original projections that I use as a rough guide, Donaldson was a strong #5.....and the rest of the top 7 went roughly as I planned. The problem was, between the time I made my choice to take the #8 slot and making this pick, Donaldson wasn't as much of a slam dunk here. Age, Toronto's lineup not being as pimped out with E5 gone, etc had me re-thinking it.
In the end, Machado's youth, upside and multi-positional eligibility won out over Donaldson's studliness. I hold out some hope that he returns to stealing 10+ bases. Another year away from his injury, he may just do that.
2.09 Edwin Encarnacion, 1b, CLE
In taking the #8 slot, I started to form a list of possibles for this pick. While one of the top 1b were certainly on the list of hopes, honestly I didn't think there was a chance of it happening. In general I thought one of the Shortstops would be here.
In the end, the SS run hit right before my pick, with 4 out of 5 picks being SS. The only exception being blue hen. bh texted me about choosing between Stanton and Encarnacion. I prayed he wouldn't take E5 and he didn't.....and louky took a SS so I got E5. Feeling really good about my start with two infield cornerstones in rounds 1 and 2.
3.08 Ryan Braun, OF, MIL
As SP started coming off the board, I started salivating at some of the hitters that were falling. I would have taken Cano and given serious consideration to Dozier if he had fallen. With Toral on the clock I made a list of OF that included Nelson Cruz, Braun and JD Martinez. Cruz would have been a huge boon, but Braun is a decent booby prize. The dozen or so sb are a nice bonus.
4.09 Carlos Gonzalez, OF, COL
Here is where I took a big leap of faith. I had no pitchers yet, but the only pitchers that stood out were Strasburg and DeGrom......and with their injury concerns I just could not pull the trigger. So, in looking over the hitters, CarGo and Kyle Seager stood out as real bargains here. I changed my mind a couple of times before putting CarGo atop my queue. Another strong hitter with helpful ratios and counting stats now gives me a massive offensive base for my team.
5.08 Jacob DeGrom, SP, NYM
....and the 4th round gamble pays off HUGE as DeGrom falls to me here. I am a DeGrom owner in the G20 league and just love his consistency. Sure, he had (relatively) minor offseason surgery so there is undoubtedly some risk here (or else there is no way based upon merit that he falls to this pick). But I felt his surgery would not affect him as much as some of the other undrafted starters so I jumped on him.
If he returns to normal glory he is a huge steal and on par with starters taken 2 rounds earlier.
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| 3 | Toral
ID: 0181517
Sat, Mar 18, 2017, 08:34
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0.07 Draft Position #6
Aside from being able to take Trout, I wouldn’t have seen all that much difference where I drafted down to around #10. But by the time the draft starts, things can happen that shrink your pool of desirables, so I saw no reason not to take the best draft slot available. In a Bonzai draft, I would have taken something between 8 and 10.
1.06 Bryce Harper, OF, Was (RIBC 1.08)
I don’t like to start with an OF in a 4-OF format with MI and CI. However, the guys I wanted – Goldscmidt, Bryant, and Arenado, were gone before I picked. Bryant was the guy I would have picked if he hadn’t gone right before me, making it the first time I had my pocket picked this draft.
I expected this and spent a good part of the day Monday deciding just what I thought of Bryce Harper.
The potential is there and obvious. So is his underperformance as against draft position 3 of the last 4 years.
If the difference between 3rd and 4th place were the same as the difference between 6th and 7th place then Harper probably isn’t the optimum choice here. But the prize structure here is like the one in Glengarry Glen Ross. First prize – to the top 3? is a Cadillac –- promotion to RIBC. 2nd prize – to the next bunch of players is a set of steak knives –- you get to stay in AAA. 3rd prize is you’re fired –- relegation.
In such a structure, Reasonable risk-taking is required. As someone who could be the best player in fantasy, Harper is a reasonable risk.
I was bolstered in this choice by Harper’s hitting homers in spring training, because it means he’s healthy. Also by his having a manager who will let him run when he might be better off being told to stay at first base. I’m hoping Harper considers himself as having something to prove.
2.11 Trevor Story, SS, Col (RIBC 2.09)
Looking for an MI here. The bottom of the barrel of MIs can get pretty well scraped, so I like to start early.
Story was the last of 6 SS in 11 picks, while the next wasn’t picked for 2 rounds, so it looks like the end of a tier here. Dropped off a bit after sensational start last year, but prorated figures for rest of the season still good. Big bat speed suggests power real.
Would have gone to Dozier (3.03) or Cano (3.02) if Story had been gone.
3.06 Johnny Cueto, SP, SF (RIBC 3.16)
Or I could have picked Chris Sale at 2.122; he went next pick. 2 more starting pitchers were gone when it got back to me. Cueto’s strikeout rate is a tick behind what you might want in an ace but he makes up for it with control, and has been consistent since his last injury year. He plays in the right division, one full of pitchers’ parks. I might well have picked Jon Lester (3.12).
4.11 Anthony Rendon, 3B, Was (RIBC 5.02)
Was looking for a 3B and a 1B in next 2 picks. Mjd picked my pocket (2nd PP in draft) by grabbing Kyle Seager. This Seager/Rendon duet was replicated later in RIBC a few rounds later. I was more confident that a 1B I wanted would be around next pick, so I went 3B here. If this looks like a reach here by RIBC standards, I’ll make it up with my next pick....
Rendon helped wreck my year in 2015 when I picked him despite his having “a minor nagging injury” in spring training. He came back year with a no-weakness season and got better in the second half of the season. If he bats lower in the lineup he’ll have more RBI, fewer runs. Being as I have Harper, I might as well have a Nat Stack. As a gold-glove 3B, he’ll be in the lineup whenever he can play.
5.06 Carlos Santana, 1B, Cle (RIBC 4.12)
I’ll just mentally switch Rendon and Santana in comparing my pix with those of RIBC....
Santana is only 30...he only seems older. As a 100-walk guy he has some insurance against a batting average drop-off. In the forefront of the movement to bat big-OBP sluggers leadoff, he should provide value in both runs and RBI. His manager plans to play him at 1B, and not Encarnacion.
Also considered Brandon Belt, the next 1B picked up, by WG 10 picks later.
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| 4 | Nerfherders
ID: 2211442615
Sat, Mar 18, 2017, 14:23
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Pick 16 For the second year in a row I get one of the last two draft slot picks. This time the last, so I had literally no choice here. I'm beginning to wonder if this shouldn't just be a random draw, since some managers get to use strategy for the slot pick while others can't.
1.15 Madison Bumgarner, SP SF
I really wanted Scherzer here and expected him to fall to this spot, but alas. I had to take the consolation prize in Bumgarner. Not as many K's, but usually a better ERA. I have never before drafted a pitcher in the first round in RIBC, but these guys plus Kershaw are that good.
2.02 Trea Turner, 2B WAS
I actually thought this was a bit of reach, seeing as Turner has only played a half season at the ML level. But he's got all the tools to make for a great player - a power-speed combo with more speed. And it turns out it wasn't a reach at all, going in the first round in other drafts. I think he takes over SS this year so I can play him at 2B or SS which allows me to be flexible with my next MI pick.
3.15 Christian Yelich, OF MIA
This pick was pretty easy. I wanted the best available hitter, and Yelich was the man. In this format he can do it all - Get on base, steal a base, hit for power and average. I really couldn't go wrong here.
4.02 Chris Davis, 1B, BAL
This pick, only 3 picks later, was really hard. I thought maybe MI here, but the best MI available on my sheet was LeMahieu, and I didnt think one season of excellence was enough to warrant the early pick. Other MI were far enough down that I felt I could wait. Then I thought 3B, but while looking at the available 3B I thought I could get one just as good on the next turn. So I looked at 1B, and that choice came down to Davis or Abreu. Abreu seems like the better bet, but being Cuban, he is only a year younger than Davis. Davis also had a hand issue that held him back last year, so I am looking for him to rebound to his 2015 numbers. He's perhaps a bit of a reach here, and definitely more valuable in HR leagues, but I think he gets to .500 SLG this year with 90+ RBI's, and his ceiling, IMO is much higher than Abreu's.
5.15 Wade Davis, RP CHC
It took something like 33 hours for the draft to get back to me, and I kind of forgot what I was doing. I had a queue set up for closers in this round and realized that if jaydog took one of my 3B I would have to switch up the queue, so I had to turn them off. Of course, after waiting for 2 hours, ready to pick, my pick came up when I had to go do something. Anyways, he didnt pick one of my 3B so I was safe to take Davis here, which I believe is the best closer available, and probably just a tick below the best two guys - Jansen and Chapman.
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| 5 | Jordan7361
ID: 71512716
Sat, Mar 18, 2017, 16:08
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Slot #4
With the 4th pick in the draft, I knew I could get Arenado or Bryant. I’m really high on both of them this year, so I was definitely happy with this position.
1.04 (4 Overall) Nolan Arenado, 3B, Col
I feared Arenado going at 3, but he fell to me at 4. Even though 3B seems to be pretty deep this year, I had no hesitation with this pick.
All those counting stats, along with a homerun ballpark make Arenado a great cornerstone. Mega-numbers in 4 of 5 categories gives me flexibility later.
2.13 (29 Overall) Noah Syndergaard, SP, NYM
With Chris Sale going right before me, Noah was the best pitcher on the board. I foresee a sub-3 ERA, 1.15ish or better WHIP, 15+ Ws, & 220+ Ks…all while having the IQ of a caveman.
There aren’t many SPs out there with numbers and upside like Noah. He’ll easily be a top 20 guy next year. I thought grabbing him at 29 was a steal.
3.04 (36 Overall) George Springer, OF, Hou
At this point, the top of my que was Springer, Posey, Odor, & Carp. Odor is tough to pass up and Posey won’t make it back to me at 61; however, 5 categories in a homerun ballpark sounds fabulous to me. Springer it is! OF 1 of 4…Check.
4.13 (61 Overall) Jose Abreu, 1B, CWS
Gary Sanchez, Jansen, Hendricks, LeMahieu were the top 4 guys in my que at this point. I own Gary Sanchez in almost every league I’m in so far, so having him dropping to 61 was HUGE for me. But wait a minute…How is Abreu still out there?! I better make sure he’s not injured or suspended. And…Nope!
Already owning Arenado and Springer, adding Abreu’s OBP, SLG, and 100+ RBIs to the mix was too good to pass up. I must say, though, that lettings Sanchez go was probably the hardest thing I’ll have to do this whole draft. Sigh…
5.04 (68 Overall) Alex Bregman, 3B, Hou
Do I take who I want to take or who I SHOULD take? We all know this can be a tough decision at times. Dee Gordon and Oh seemed like the most logical choices for me here. Lucroy was also intriguing considering that Posey and Sanchez were off the board. I considered Aledmys Diaz as the top SS at this point, but not worthy of pick 68 overall. With SS being pretty thin this year, I’m not sure if he’ll slide to me at 93. What do I do?!
I already have a 3B, so taking who I want wouldn’t make much sense here. Did I mention that 3B is pretty deep this year? What the heck…Bregman! Another young buck with 5-category potential in a homerun ballpark? Don’t mind if I do!
After 5 rounds, I have a superhuman pitcher and 4 top-notch hitters in HR ballparks.
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| 6 | Judy
ID: 35493114
Sat, Mar 18, 2017, 22:58
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Really no choice in slot 13.
1.13. Anthony Rizzo. 1B CHC
Looking for a solid all around player. ~ runs and BI, nice > 500 slg and OBP >375. On a team that should give him the chance to meet those goals. Ranked #4 in roto and 4th 1B taken in our league. Went 4 in RIBC and 3 in yahoo AAA.
2.04. Corey Seager SS LAD
See Rizzo above. All round stats near the top. #5 SS in roto and 3rd SS taken. Went 4 in RIBC SS and 2 in yahoo.
3.13. Roughed Odor 2B TEX
A third all round player. #2 2B in roto and 5th taken by us. Went 7 in RIBC 2B and 6 in yahoo.
All three above in the. Tops 25 on my list. Makes me feel lucky.
4.04. Aaron Nola SP PHL
Homer pick. Thought I had deGrom here. Oh well. Should do well on a young Phillies team. Over 180 K, decent ERA ~3.00 and nice WHIP ~ 1.15. Will get W elsewhere. Middle SP group is pretty deep. Not yet drafted in other leagues...
5.13. Jose Peraza 2B CIN
Another SP or a SB? Decision time. Peraza listed as SS, but will play 2B.
Decided to add some SB here ~ 35+. OBP wont hurt me and his SLG is pretty average, but my top three guys should make up for that. #8 2B in roto as SS our 7 2B taken. Not yet taken in RIBC, 11 in yahoo. Under the radar guy, but I had him in G20 and know his potential...
So far, jumped the gun on Nola but thought I was getting deGrom, know about Peraza so consider that a sneaky pick, MI very well taken care of, INF almost all set -- will do 3B for pick 6.
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| 7 | slizz
ID: 3556212
Sat, Mar 18, 2017, 23:58
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Slot #1 - Anytime you can get a chance to get Mike Trout, you do it. When I found out that I won the draft lottery, I really didn't have much of a choice in terms of choosing a draft slot. It was #1 overall and Trout all the way. If I had 2nd pick, I would've chose the 4 slot to guarantee the services of Nolan Arenado, Kris Bryant, or Goldy (in that order).
1.01 - Mike Trout, OF, LAA
Mike Trout.
2.16 - Yu Darvish, SP, TEX
In RIBC AA (2016), I did not take a pitcher until the 5th round (Danny Salazar) and learned the importance of picking at least one (1) ace early on. I knew better, but it was arrogance on my part thinking I could put together a patchwork staff by taking high upside or undervalued arms in the later rounds. With knowledgeable managers, that was anything but the case. I managed to do fine with Saves, but struggled to get above a 3 in ERA and WHIP and barely made 6th place to earn a promotion to AAA. I did not want to suffer the same fate this year, and made it a point to take the best pitcher available at the turn.
Why Darvish?
Darvish was flat out awesome last season, posting the second highest strikeout rate amongst starters in 2016, brought his walk rate to a career low, and added a tick of velocity from 2014. Command is usually the last thing that comes back for pitchers who are recovering from Tommy John...and he somehow did it in one season while he was in recovery mode. I am excited to see Darvish...fully healed and unleashed!
3.01 - Corey Kluber, SP, CLE
I nearly took Nelson Cruz (3.07 - MJD) with this pick. Cruz is the epitome of power and consistency. Only hitter in the MLB with 40 HR in each of the last three (3) seasons. However, I couldn't bring myself to take another OF knowing I would likely land one of my targets, Gregory Polanco, next round. Pass on Cruz or any outfielder.
Next option - Robinson Cano (3.02 - Valkryie). Couldn't bring myself to take him either. A traditional line drive hitter saw a career high fly ball % in addition to a HR/FB% of 40%. As a mid thirties hitter, I could see that power # regress some and that would make me regret picking him at 3.01 when I could've had a player with more "impact" on the league. If you look at all of the picks in round 3 - its pretty much all outfielders, Posey & Carpenter. As I'm writing this, I'm realizing that's the only drawback of taking the 1.01 slot and Trout: Outfield surplus at the turn in RIBC. Since I have Trout and those juicy ratios, I figure I could absorb the drop-off in the hitter I would take in rounds 4/5 (Rendon / Abreu / Polanco). I began to focus on another pitcher:
Kluber, Lester (ywk - 3.12), or Verlander (louky - 3.09)
Lester is going to be awesome, but I think the loss of David Ross is going to add at least 1 ER to his overall line. Lester never throws to first and, as a result, should be easy to run on. Last year, David Ross led the MLB in holding runners on 1st at a rate of 85%...Contreras and Schwarber are not known as defensive savants, so I figure he could not add max value to pick 3.01 like Verlander or Kluber could. Pass on Lester.
Verlander has had only 1 good season (2016) in the past 4-5. That being said, Verlander has only been healthy for 1 season in the past 4-5. If I have to debate a guys health in the 3rd round, I probably shouldn't pick him...even if it comes back to bite me later on. Pass on Verlander.
Kluber it is. Kluber is awesome, has a great defense behind him, and the Indians did a phenomenal job of managing his workload in the playoffs last year. I see no reason for him to not give me 200+ IP of pure satisfaction.
4.16 - Gregory Polanco, OF, PIT
My queue was 3 players for this round: Jose Abreu (Jordanski 4.13), Anthony Rendon (Toral 4.11), and Gregory Polanco. Every mock draft I did, Rendon falls to me. Every freaking one! Damn you, Toral! I genuinely think Rendon is going to have a monster year whether he hits 3rd or 5th in that lineup. In the drafts that I did not get Abreu (last solid, high floor, safe 1B pick), I took Polanco. Looks like I'm taking Polanco and having to search for another player at 5.01.
Polanco to quote ESPN has added "noticeable muscle" this offseason, which should bode well for his SLG%. That said, Polanco was an elite hitter up until he crashed against the wall vs the Nats last year:
Gregory Polanco Crashes into the Wall
Polanco had a slash line of .297 AVG/.895 OPS/12 HR/9 SB up until that point.
After that collision with the wall, Polanco pretty much stunk going .220 / .682 / 10 / 8.
I think its safe to say that wall injury had something to do with the drop in performance. I'm hoping that he can stay healthy and, if he does, you're looking at a near .900 OPS with 25+ HR and 20 SB.
5.01 - Kenley Jansen, RP, LAD
I already own two starting pitchers, so that was not an option in the 5th round. I didn't want to reach on a 1st baseman like Hanley Ramirez as his ADP didn't warrant selecting here. The ADP and Value of a Kenley Jansen was too good to pass up. Aroldis Chapman (Coldwater Coyotes 4.06) would've been my ideal pick here due to his elite K/9, but I will settle for the close 2nd in Kenley.
One can't predict how many saves he will get, but one can assume he will get his opportunities while maintaining an elite ERA and WHIP...and oh yeah, he will get his strikeouts. Using 2016 as a benchmark, Kenley is roughly 35 strikeouts more than actual innings pitched. Using the formula of 35 strikeouts times 9 innings, I have now created a surplus of 315 innings. In other words, it would take 315 innings of a 7.5 (average) K/9 in starting pitching and turns it into an elite-level 8.5 K/9 (If I had Chapman, it would be even better!!!).
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| 8 | Jaydog
ID: 106132311
Mon, Mar 20, 2017, 16:51
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Slot #14
Didn't really have much of a choice, as I chose 14th, but figured I'd want to be as close as I could to the front in the event that someone I wanted fell. I generally like being closer to the middle so I can better react to position runs, but alas...
1.14: Max Scherzer, SP, WAS
Was salivating on the prospect of Anthony Rizzo falling to me here, but Judy grabbed him at #13. Looking at the players left on the board, there were two pitchers that intrigued me (Syndergaard and Scherzer), and three hitters (Correa, Blackmon, Turner). Purely off of the fact there were more hitters than pitchers, I decided to go Scherzer first and grab whichever of the three hitters made it back to me. As a Mets fan, I personally hate drafting Mets players early due to the Jinx factor, and Scherzer has been as consistent as they come over the past several years. Locking up an elite strikeout guy, with great ratio's on a good team should allow me to be patient with the rest of my pitching staff.
2.03: Freddie Freeman, 1B, ATL
Wouldn't you know it, the three hitters I wanted went the three picks prior to me in succession, leaving me to come up with a plan B. In retrospect, I should have gone hitter first and then grabbed Thor at the turn. Freddie Freeman appeared to be the best hitter on the board, so I went that way. Even if Freeman doesn't repeat his .400/.569 line from last year, he's as "guaranteed" as they come to produce an OPS above .850, around 100 RBI's, and assuming health he should play every day.
3.14: Buster Posey, C, SF
Had Odor and Carpenter queued up, but lost out on both of them. I usually thing Buster Posey is overvalued in these leagues, given his position, but in most years I've seen him go in the 1st (or early in the 2nd) rounds. To see him on the board so late in the 3rd round seemed like really good value. His power trailed off a little last year, but I've seen a few experts write that off as more of a fluke than a decline in production. Even with his power dropping a bit, he was still good for 146 games of 790+ OPS and 80/80 Runs RBI's, all from a difficult position to fill. Certainly not worth a 2nd round pick, but love getting him at the end of the 3rd.
4.03: A.J Pollack, OF, ARI
Pollack wasn't on my radar at all this year. He was as hot as they come in last years draft, but an injury knocked him out almost all season. There's no reason that his injury should affect him this season, so figure I can get someone with 2nd round upside in the 4th was appealing to me. Good OBP and Power from a guy with 30+ steal potential.
5.14: Ian Desmond, OF, COL
I was a bit iffy on this pick as Desmond should miss a few weeks to start the season with a broken hand. I heard an interview with a medical expert who stated that the type of injury/surgery that he had should not have any impact on his power/swing when he comes back. Assuming that's true, Desmond should put up career numbers in Coors Field, while hopefully gaining multi-position eligibility during the season. Thinking that there's 2nd to 3rd round upside in this pick assuming he doesn't miss much time and comes back healthy.
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| 9 | Meatwads
ID: 28231618
Wed, Mar 22, 2017, 11:47
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Slot #5
I took the top available pick at the time because I wanted to get one of the elite talents, with the possibility of someone I had ranked 2 or 3 falling to me.
1.05 Kris Bryant, 3B/OF, CHC
Not much to be said about this guy. He's a consensus 1st round pick in all formats. The multi-position from an elite player, combined with his age, pedigree, the lineup he hits in and my own belief, makes him a building block. Also considered Mookie Betts.
2.12 Chris Sale, SP, BOS
I've left myself thin at pitching in the past, and wanted to make sure I had an ace on my roster this season. Sale has been one of the most consistently dominate pitchers over the past few seasons. The move from Chicago to Boston shouldn't have any negative effect on his value. There's a decent possibility he wins 20 games this season, which has always been the category keeping his value from skyrocketing. Also considered Noah Syndergaard, Corey Kluber and Jake Arrieta.
3.05 Wil Myers, 1B, SD
I made this selection because Myers seems to have a unique ability to steal bases as a first baseman. I've always believed he would be one of the best hitters in baseball once he reached his prime, and we may have seen the beginning of that last season. There is risk involved with this pick due to his second half struggles and pitcher-friendly home park, but overall I feel I got a homeless man's Paul Goldschmidt, so I can't complain. Also considered Nelson Cruz, Ryan Braun and Christian Yelich.
4.12 Jean Segura, 2B/SS, SEA
This selection was made for several reasons. He was an elite performer last season, well above where I selected him. His multi-position at both MI positions gives me desired flexibility. His steals were also a big consideration in taking him. The move from Arizona to Seattle is not positive, and I expect regression from last season just like 99.9% of people. That being said, I feel he fell to me more than I targetted him, which makes it seem like a value pick. Also considered Jose Abreu and Kenley Jansen.
5.05 D.J. LeMahieu, 2B, COL
It took me a couple years to get on board with this guy, but last year made him too hard to ignore. This selection was made due to his outstanding season last year, combined with his great hitters park, premium position and prime age. As with the Segura selection, I believe this is a value pick who would've been taken already if he was a sexier name. Also considered Zach Britton, Dee Gordon, Edwin Diaz and Kyle Schwarber.
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