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Subject: RIBC 2017 AAA RATIONALES 6-10
Posted by: Judy
- [35493114] Sat, Mar 11, 2017, 19:33
Picks 6-10 |
| 1 | Judy
ID: 35493114
Sat, Mar 11, 2017, 19:38
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ESPN LEAGUE
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| 2 | slizz
ID: 3556212
Mon, Mar 20, 2017, 01:54
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6.16 - Evan Longoria, 3B, TB
I knew rolling the dice on Kenley at 5 would leave me gambling to find quality hitters in the 6th & 7th rounds. Through 5 rounds my only two hitters are Mike Trout and Gregory Polanco. Two Outfielders! I felt confident that I could get a solid 1st baseman in the 6/7 range, but the other infield position I was more concerned about...especially when Judy nabbed Sano at 6.04. Fortunately for me, just about every team picking after Judy had a 3rd baseman. When it came time to select, I really had no other option than to choose Longoria or reach a little on another infielder.
Longoria should hit another 30 HR for Tampa Bay as advance hitting metrics show that he should experience little to no decline in his batted ball performance. My only hope is that his on base % goes to the .330 range. I won't hold my breath...either way, I'll take a repeat of 2016.
7.01 - Hanley Ramirez, 1B, BOS
It was between Eric Hosmer (MJD - 7.07) and Hanley. I already own Hosmer in G20, so I saw no reason to rank him above Hanley. Had Evan been taken, I would've gone Hosmer and Hanley at 6/7. Hanley is going to hit in the middle of what should be a loaded lineup and, barring health, should continue to rake. I just hope Hanley is consistent from start to finish and not great in the latter months. If so, I see no reason why he shouldn't hit 30 HR and generate 100+ RBI's.
Wish I could give you better analysis for picks 6 & 7, but I desperately needed two infield bats with power upside, and these two gave me exactly that.
8.16 - Albert Pujols, 1B, LAA
I really wasn't considering Pujols at this pick and was looking for reasons to take Carlos Carrasco (9.05 - Meatwads). During my Carrasco research, I came across the following article:
Fantasy Baseball Spring Training Takeaways: Albert Pujols feeling good, but A.J. Pollock and Carlos Carrasco not so much
Carrasco will be fine, but committing another early pick to pitching in a competitive RIBC draft felt like the wrong move. Pujols it is! If Pujols can make those singles doubles again, his OPS should see a considerable boost as the power is going to remain the same. Pujols contact rate has been consistent and he should give me a floor of a .330 OB% while sprinkling in 30+ HR and 100+ RBI's for a second consecutive season.
9.01 - Javier Baez, 2B/3B/SS, CHC
This pick was about position flexibility. Before selecting Baez, I had 0 MI on my squad. With Baez, I acquire a high upside player who offers me a ton of flexibility when it comes to rounding out my roster later in the draft. Sure, there are playing time questions, but when he's on the field he will be inserted into my starting lineup.
My biggest fear with Baez is his plate discipline. Sure he saw a considerable improvement in the overall line, but can it be trusted? I am cautiously optimistic that it will. Baez has traditionally struggled in each of his promotions, only to come back the following season and showcase a significant improvement. For example:
2013 AA - .346 OB% over 218 AB
2014 AAA - .323 OB% over 388 AB
2014 MLB - .227 OB% over 213 AB
2015 AAA - .385 OB% over 281 AB (19% increase over the previous year vs AAA)
2015 MLB - .325 OB% over 76 AB (too small of a sample)
2016 MLB - .321 OB% over 421 AB.
If Baez continues to improve, as most young players do, I don't see why a .340 OB% (6% increase) would be out of the question. If he gets on base at a .340 clip with everything else he brings to the table, he would provide 5-6th round ROI for me at a significant discount. **FINGERS CROSSED**
10.16 - Cam Bedrosian, RP, LAA
To quote Razzball: The thing that I love about Cam is that he is growing as a pitcher. He always had the K/9 rate (9.3 in 2014, 9.2 in 2015, and 11.4 in 2016), but the thing that says that he is legit is that his walk rate was basically halved last year. To extrapolate on that further, in his last 26 appearances of last year he faced 92 batters, walked 8, and allowed 12 hits. Good for a slash line of .146/.239/.159 for a .398 OPS... If you are looking to invest in him for the season, he is basically going to give you Kelvin Herrera type production, and by his ever rising ADP (last week 200, this week 140) the secret is out for the save chase in La La Grey.
If he can give that type of production, while staying healthy, over the course of a season...he will have easily exceeded his draft position. This also keeps me from having to compete with the likes of Blue Hen, WG, Species, Meatwads, MJD, and Toral for waiver wire superiority in unearthing the next hot closer. If I don't beat them to it, I can rest knowing I have 2 elite RP and will have secured at least 11 points in Saves.
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| 3 | Toral
ID: 0181517
Mon, Mar 20, 2017, 12:10
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6.11 Ian Kinsler, 2B, Det (RIBC 6.06)
The closer I would have taken here went two picks before. Somehow it isn’t even half as annoying if someone goes two picks ahead of you instead of right before you. By my calculations there should be at least one -- and probably only one -- pick-worthy closer by my next pick. So I can go for something else.
Kinsler is 35, and I’m not expecting 20 homers again. But he should have an OPS within hailing distance of .800 and has produced double-digit steals every year of his career.
7.06 Alex Colome, RP, TB (RIBC 6.12)
My math was correct; Colome has the 4th RP taken in a row and the last one I would have been willing to take here. Actually my favourite of the bunch was Kelvin Herrera (7.05) so my pocket was picked for the third time in this draft.
Did you know that ”since the 2015 All-Star break, Alex Colome has a 2.01 ERA, which ranks eighth-best among relievers with at least 75 innings pitched during that time span.”? Neither did I when I picked him, but Tristan Cockroft has a neat column today featuring 101 facts you need to know before the baseball season.
Colome had an unreplicably high strand rate last year, but he has stuff enough to keep his competion at bay until he gets injured.
8.11 Dustin Pedroia, 2B, Bos (RIBC 7.13)
I was all set to pick an SP here (the one I got with my next pick anyway) or an OF (maybe Adam Eaton, who went two-and-a-half rounds later) when I saw that Pedroia was still in my queue and asked myself what the heck he was doing here. I had been prepared to pick him 2 rounds earlier if Kinsler had been gone.
Well I’ve had problems before filling that MI slot, so I’ll do that right now.
Another aged hitter coming off a great season, will score 80 runs or more.
9.06 Julio Teheran, SP, Atl (Other AAA 8.04)
I picked Teheran 2nd in a group of 5 starters taken within 6 picks. Why do I like him better than the others?
Because he is a potential ace disguised by the hideous face of an awful team. Has been durable. And that awful team was last in MLB in runs scored before the ASB last year, 6th in the second half. So this year I expect his win total to be closer to 17 than 7.
10.11 Dallas Keuchel, SP, Hou (Other AAA 8.15)
I would have picked Keuchel last time if Teheran had been taken, so it makes sense to take him now. His imputed ERA last year was 3.50, and I expect his actual ERA to that or lower this year.
Checking one set of rankings I generally like, I couldn't find him. I was looking too low; this source has him as the 18th highest pitcher in baseball, two spots below Johnny Cueto, who I picked in the third round! I’m not buying that, but he was picked 34th here, and can beat that, I figure.
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| 4 | Species
Dude
ID: 07724916
Mon, Mar 20, 2017, 14:20
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6.09 Edwin Diaz, RP, SEA
I normally wait on closers (at times to my detriment), but in the picks before this pick two starters I would have considered - Tanaka and Quintana - vanished before me. As this closer run started and I saw Diaz there, I jumped on him as an elite ratio, high strikeout closer on a competitive team. Like Toral, if he wasn't there, I may have passed (or gone Kimbrel) on closers until next round.
The other guys I considered were Kinsler, Longoria and Turner -- but I felt there was sufficient depth at those positions.
7.08 Justin Turner, 3b, LAD
I had been playing "chicken" with 3rd base for several rounds after passing on Kyle Seager in Rd 4. Turner was near the end of the tier of 3b I was comfortable with so I jumped on him when this turn came along. I have Turner pegged for a strong OPS with strong counting stats (80/80 runs/rbi) in a solid Dodger lineup.
If positional scarcity at 3b wasn't such a concern I would have taken Carlos Martinez here. Considering bh took Franco 2 picks later, I am glad I did not delay on 3b any longer than I did.
8.09 David Robertson, RP, CHW
I had Jason Kipnis atop my queue while enduring the louky rain delay. I was so confident I was going to get him that I basically half-assed putting Robertson as my 2nd choice in my queue. Only to wake up being really pissed off that louky took Kipnis. In reality, I should have slotted my pick of SP here instead.......however
9.08 Gerrit Cole, SP, PIT
.....if you take into account that I got someone who might have been atop my SP list at 8.09 in Gerrit Cole (or at least listed with Carrasco and Teheran), then I look at the picks in the 8th and 9th as a wash. I got a SP who was a top 10 SP last year after a REALLY good 2015 AND I got Robertson who was comfortably the strongest of the remaining closers the previous round, and I am happy overall with the duo.
I considered Zack Greinke as another rebound candidate as well as Danny Salazar for his sizzling strikeout potential.
10.09 Greg Bird, 1b, NYY
I have had Bird as a target of mine since the draft started --- it was just a matter of time as to when I would pull the trigger. The pool of slugging cornerman was approaching non-existent, and I felt Bird had a floor of Adrian Gonzalez and a ceiling of a pre-2016 Freddie Freeman. He happens to be obliterating the ball in spring training......and while (undrafted) looms as a potential platoon-mate, the Yankees' rebuilding with key young players to me makes it clear that if Bird takes the job and runs with it that there will not be much risk of him losing time. I looked at Napoli but felt Bird had higher potential.
I would have given serious consideration to Gausman here but also felt I needed a hitter here.
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| 5 | Jaydog
ID: 106132311
Mon, Mar 20, 2017, 17:03
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6.03: Seung Hwan Oh, RP, STL
I usually try to snag two closers, and with 26 picks before I pick again, felt I needed to grab one here. I've seen Oh ranked as high as the 4th best closer. He was filthy last year, and is playing on a good team. Assuming he wasn't a one year wonder, should anchor my bullpen nicely.
7.14: Mark Trumbo, OF, BAL
I really struggled with this pick. OF wasn't a need for me at all, but having drafted Pollack and Desmond, felt like a masher would compliment their stats nicely. Trumbo will hurt my OBP a bit, but should be elite in SLG and RBI, and given that Pollack and Desmond may start the year on the DL I wanted to build some depth there. Justin Turner or Maikel Franco would have been my first and second choices here, but missed out on both.
8.03: Jeurys Familia, RP, NYM
Maybe jumped a bit early on my second closer, but didn't want to miss out altogether, and the options behind Familiar were looking a bit iffy. He may get suspended to start the season, but I'm hearing the suspension should be short, and Familia has been a regular season beast for a few years now.
9.14: Troy Tulowitski, SS, TOR
Looking at my roster, I'm still without any middle infielders, so had succumbed to finally taking one here. Tulo certainly carries an injury risk, and in a season and a half out of the friendly confines of Coors Field has dissapointed, but still figured he was worth the pick here. When healthy, he should play every day in a loaded lineup... hoping that last years number present his floor, with upside far beyond what he's shown.
10.03: Lance McCullers, SP, HOU
Was deciding between several SP, 3B, and MI options, and McCullers looked like the best value, and the least likely to come back to me in the next found. He's young enough to expect some growth, has a power arm, and pitches on a good team. If he can improve his control even a little bit, I think there's the chance to be a really nice pitcher.
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| 6 | Nerfherders
ID: 33543714
Mon, Mar 20, 2017, 19:07
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6.02 Jake Lamb, 3B AZ
This turn was going to be closer / 3B, and I set my queue to get Lamb or Sano here. I have them rated pretty equally I just think Lamb might get more RBI's. I am hoping he can continue his good work from last year.
7.15 Ben Zobrist, 2B CHC
In a draft with this many great managers you can't afford to make an unforced error, and this, sadly was one. I was thinking 2B all the way, but what I didn't think of was what WG needed or wanted on the turn. In hindsight I should have flipped these picks and got the 2B on the way out, because I missed Duffy. In addition to that, as good as Zobrist has been his whole career, he doesn't have a position to play right now. Those things tend to work themselves out, but it was still a bad pick at the wrong time.
8.02 David Dahl, OF COL
And it cost me Duffy at this spot. Dahl is going to be a good player and I am pretty happy with this pick, but I would have felt alot better with Duffy / 2B on this turn instead.
9.15 Sam Dyson, RP TEX
I almost did it again. I was all in on SP/RP on this turn and then decided to check what WG might need. Turns out, he had no RP so I switched it and got Dyson - probably the last committed reliable closer on the board going into the season.
10.02 Danny Salazar, SP CLE
And that worked like a charm because Salazar was still waiting for me on the outbound. SP were flying off the board in round 9 so I had to go back again and again and look at my SP sheet. I was surprised that Salazar wasn't one of those picks.
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| 7 | Meatwads
ID: 28231618
Wed, Mar 22, 2017, 21:09
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6.12 Billy Hamilton, OF, CIN
There's one reason anyone picks this guy. The steals are off the charts. He stole 58 bases last season in only 411 ABs. He's projected to leadoff for the Reds, and still has room to grow as a hitter. Paired with Myers and Segura, I feel extremely elite in SB at this stage, which was part of my plan entering the draft. Also considered Craig Kimbrel, Hanley Ramirez and Kevin Herrera.
7.05 Kelvin Herrera, RP, KC
Time to get a closer. I waited as long as possible. I wish everyone would agree to take them in the 14 round, but here we are. I've admired Herrera's ability as the forgotten member of some dominant Royals bullpens. I've been waiting for years for his closing role to emerge and I'm glad to take him at this stage. Also considered Alex Colome and Jeurys Familia.
8.12 Andrew Benintendi, OF, BOS
Not the safest selection but everything this guy has done since being drafted has been positive. He's the top-ranked prospect on a lot of lists, seems to have a spot in the top half of a potent Red Sox lineup. Basically, he's oozing with potential to be more valuable than this spot. I've also been burned on similar type selections in the past, so I'm cautiously optimistic. Also considered
Khris Davis, Albert Pujols and Wilson Contreras.
9.05 Carlos Carrasco, SP, CLE
As I've gotten older and hopefully wiser, I've backed away from drafting pitching with injury red flags. (Wait for Round 17). At a certain point in the draft you see this guy that seems like he should've been gone 50 picks ago. Some people see a potential top 10 starter if everything clicks for him. I just hope he gives me good ratios, elite strikeout rate and makes getting picked 133rd overall look silly. Also considered Julio Teheran, Gerrit Cole and Zack Greinke.
10.12 Jackie Bradley Jr, OF, BOS
I felt this was another selection that fell in my lap. Bradley had a nice season last year and is locked into a potent lineup at age 26. If he comes close to repeating last season, this is a solid value. If he repeats or improves it's a steal. His defense will always keep him in the lineup and his offense took a major step forward. Also considered Cam Bedrosian, Felix Hernandez and Dansby Swanson.
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| 8 | Jordan7361
ID: 71512716
Sat, Mar 25, 2017, 15:22
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6.13 (93 Overall) Aledmys Diaz, SS, StL
I feared Diaz going in the 25 slots since my last pick, but low and behold, he was there at 93. With SS being as thin as it is this year, there was no way I was rolling the dice again with 3 people picking twice after me.
I’ve been scouting Diaz for a few years now, picked him up last year the day it was announced that he got called up, and have been reaping the benefits since. I’m glad to have Aledmys on my team.
7.04 (100 Overall) Ken Giles, RP, Hou
Beware the closer run! I could smell it coming, so I wanted to grab a solid ERA/WHIP closer with over 9 K/9. Giles was the best available in my opinion, so I snagged him.
Since I missed out on Posey, Sanchez, and Lucroy, I deeply pondered taking Contreras at 100, but decided to go Giles because of the closer run fear. Having 25 guys go between picks sucks, but there seems to be a lot of talent in the next tier of catchers, so I felt that I could wait.
8.13 (125 Overall) Khris Davis, OF, Oak
Khris Davis available at 125? I had no intentions of him being part of my plan/team, but every now and then, enough people pass on a guy where I have no other choice. Call it punishment or whatever you will to the rest of the league for passing so many times on a 40+ HR guy. Shame on all of you! Why did you make me do this?
I was shocked to see Contreras fall to 125, but I can let one of the next 3 guys take him with 1 of their 2 picks. I can make up for him later. Khris was too good to pass up.
9.04 (132 Overall) Wilson Contreras, C, ChC
Okay. If no one else wants to take the catcher at the top of the next tier, then I’ll take him. Now I won’t have to go through the frustration of guys taking the catcher I’m targeting down the road.
The tough thing about catchers is that after the first tier goes, it’s hard to project when anyone else will go. Closers seem to be the same. Ugh…
10.13 (157 Overall) Jameson Taillon, SP, Pit
I was pondering taking Greg Bird at this point, but he surprisingly had gone just a few picks before, so I I knew it was time for my first SP. Keuchel, Fulmer, and Taillon were the top 3 SPs in my que and Keuchel had gone 2 picks before me. Since the top 2 guys (Bird & Keuchel) in my que just went, I wanted to grab Taillon even though he was very arguably not the best pitcher available. Also, I missed out on Taillon in my last draft, so that bumped up his value.
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