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Subject: RIBC 2017 AAA RATIONALES 11-15
Posted by: Judy
- [35493114] Sat, Mar 11, 2017, 19:34
11-15 |
| 1 | Judy
ID: 35493114
Sat, Mar 11, 2017, 19:36
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ESPN LEAGUE
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| 2 | slizz
ID: 3556212
Tue, Mar 21, 2017, 17:37
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11.01 - Rich Hill, SP, LAD
MJD took my favorite second-tier pitcher in Kevin Gausman (10.10), so it left me wanting to take Jameson Taillon (10.13 - Jordanski) as his replacement. I could live with that as I have zero shares of Taillon in any leagues and this would be a great opportunity to get him on my squad...as a result of Jordanski, I won't have any shares for a second consecutive year. I'll be completely honest, I would probably take a mulligan on this selection and have selected Steven Matz (Jordanski - 12.13). Selecting Matz would get me a pitcher who will guarantee, health pending, 180 IP rather than 130ish from Hill. Its a huge investment to take a 37 year old who has topped 110 IP in a season only once. Why do I feel like the guy who bought someone at their absolute peak with nowhere to go but down?
12.16 - Devon Travis, 2B, TOR
Looks like I am using Baez at SS! I desperately needed MI help and Travis was the last of the fantasy-worthy 2B in RIBC. As per Razzball: Assuming his knee is fine, and by all reports I’ve seen it will be, seven steals over a season will be low. He’s not a speedster by any stretch. He’s one of those sneaky, pick-your-spots, base stealers. The kind that could get 12-15 steals. The kind that should get that many steals. Hit and run plays alone and he should get more than eight steals, throw in a few vs. poor pitchers and catchers and he gets a few more. Chuck in the Jays won’t be offensively as good so they may need to run more and you get more steals — are we up to 45 steals on the year for Travis yet? Okay, okay, I’m not saying he’ll get 20 steals, but 7 steals is nothing. Then, his power. Last year, he hit fly balls 34% of the time. His homers/fly balls is roughly 11%. So, quick math tells us he’ll hit about 175 fly balls and 19.25 of them will go for home runs. So, 19 homers and a single that travels 425 feet. 19 HRs, 12 SBs, .300 average. You know who I’m describing? The AM/PM mascot, Toomgis? No! I’m not describing that. I’m describing Xander Bogaerts but hitting leadoff instead of third. Intrigued yet? Yeah, I thought you would be. Travis is likely more of a .280 hitter than .310, but he has hit .300 in his career. Conservatively, for 2017, I’ll give you Devon Travis’ projections at 91/19/64/.285/10 in 578 ABs with chance for even some upside from there.
Sign me up!
13.01 - James Paxton, SP, SEA
Meatwads will vouch for this. I had Domingo Santana (Coldwater Coyotes - 14.06) selected and ready to click on "make draft pick" when I had a last second change of heart. I LOVE Santana. It killed me that I didn't have the bandwidth to keep him in G20...but felt that I could still extract hitter value much later with my "targets".
Since blue hen got Paxton in G20, I wanted to make sure I got him here. Paxton is the chic breakout pick to go from pick ADP 170-200 to a top 50 mainstay on just about every fantasy site one can go to. The in depth statistics seem to back this up and I feel that he could be a sneaky good add to my deep pitching staff. I won't waste your time with link after link after link. Just google "james paxton fantasy" and you'll get a plethora of articles supporting my belief.
Darvish - 170IP
Kluber - 200IP
Hill - 110IP
Paxton - 150IP
Jansen - 60IP
Bedrosian - 60IP
Conservatively, I'm up to 750IP...halfway there!
14.16 - Yangervis Solarte, 3B, SD
I can shift Pujols to UT and use Solarte at CI. In my projections, I was slated to finish DEAD LAST in on base %. Solarte was more of a 3 wood off the tee needing to hit a shot in the fairway. He won't be crazy good, but he won't hurt me and could sprinkle in some counting stats in the meantime.
15.01 - Brandon Drury, 3B/OF, ARI
My 3rd outfielder!!! YAY!!! Drury has multi-position eligibility and a starting job in Arizona. I'm pretty much picking from the dregs to round out my offense...he's young, has upside, and hits in Chase Field. #winning?
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| 3 | Species
Dude
ID: 07724916
Tue, Mar 21, 2017, 19:31
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11.08 John Lackey, SP, CHC
After two injury-rebound candidates in DeGrom (who looks phenomenal so far and looks healthy) and Cole (also looking good with high K totals in Spring) I felt I needed a safe 3rd starter and found that in John Lackey. He was pretty unlucky last year for the champion Cubs in only winning 11 games despite great ratios. He strikes out enough guys and I expect more like 13-14 wins this year.
Unfortunately, I continued to play chicken with my need for stolen bases and missed out on Tim Anderson (SS-CHW) who I have targeted around this time. He went at 12.02, much to my dismay.
12.09 Jonathan Schoop, 2b, BAL
After missing out on Anderson, I felt it was time to stop ignoring MI. I only had one at this point (Machado, 1.08) and definitely needed to get another one or else risk blowing my ratios to smithereens! Schoop is awful in an OBP league, but his .500 SLG at the MI position helps balance that out. I figured I will end up needing it in order to offset a couple of speed-only, non-slugging scrubs later on.
13.08 Russell Martin, C, TOR
You would think I would learn my lesson, wouldn't you? Particularly after another sb candidate - PHI 2b Cesar Hernandez - went just before this pick I would stop jerking around and take a speed guy. I have had Rajai Davis near the top of my mind for a while to cure those woes, but......
Martin stood out as the last catcher of the non-Posey/Lucroy/Sanchez tier and they were starting to come off the board. Martin's .345-ish OBP is really valuable when the majority of catchers are more in the .300-.310 range. I talked myself into this pick due to his counting stats and I could use him to help offset Schoop's abysmal OBP.
....and so Rajai Davis went with the pick after this one. Of course he did.
14.09 Josh Harrison, 2b, PIT
So Harrison fills a 3rd MI slot with an OK obp and 15-20 steals. He seems solidified as PIT's 2b and I see no reason he can't get those steals.
I will just have to 18 steal myself to death to try to be respectable.
15.08 Travis Jankowski, OF, SD
And here is where all of my previous failures come to roost --- taking a player like Jankowski probably 3 to 5 rounds early. Oh well. Screw it. There are still plenty of strong options out there, I have gotten my share of good value picks along the way, so I will overpay for a need......that said, I don't have to like it.
Jankowski stole 30 bases in 335 at bats last year. It seems logical he can outpace that with a starting job from Day 1.
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| 4 | Toral
ID: 0181517
Wed, Mar 22, 2017, 08:12
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11.06 Dexter Fowler, OF, StL (RIBC 10.08)
I woke up at 5:30 A.M. and had to check what was left of my queue. I got a nasty shock. Slizz had taken Cam Bedrosian at 11.01. I didn’t think anyone else would take a sore-winged closer who hadn’t made an appearance in the Cactus League this early. Horror! Who knows what I’ll do for a 2nd closer now, particularly since I don’t intend to spend my summer staring at little screens to await news of a closer change.
Ah, well. C-Losers are always trouble, whether you think you own enuf or not. No wonder people want to wimp out and substitute saves+ holds as a category.
Dexter Fowler was the only name left in my queue. After composing myself and reviewing my lists, he did seem like the best choice here. About time I picked up a second OF. Fowler gives me another leadoff type, should have .375 OBP and score 80 runs, with double-digit steals, stop me if you’ve heard this before. If he’s good enuf for Guru at 10.08 in RIBC, he’s good enuf for me here.
12.11 Max Kepler, OF, Min (Other AAA 10.05)
This draft is going so damned fast that none of my next 4 picks have been taken by RIBC so I’m using AAA Yahoo for comparisons.
Kepler slumped late in his rookie season and had a BABIP of .261 which might be bad luck. He has power and should bat in runs, which I can use. He takes his share of walks, is not slow (hits triples) and could conceivably be a double-digit base stealer. He might not have been as good a choice as another young outfielder I will mention later.
13.06 Steve Pearce, 1B, Tor (Other AAA 13.06)
The Yahoo AAA conparison isn’t particularly instructive as in Yahoo! Pearce is eligible at second base, which increases his value immensely. I’d have grabbed him a lot earlier in that format.
This pick might be my first (?) stupid mistake, not becuz it’s bad, but becuz I was sure Adam Duvall, an every-day cleanup hitter had been picked. He hadn’t, and went at 13.12. I might have picked Duvall, becuz I have another sleeper in mind for first base.
But I might not have. Pearce is intended for the outfield, although he’s starting at 1B in ST while he recovers from forearm surgery. He slugs, particularly against left-handers. But I think he could end up as more than a part-time player, if healthy. The Jays’ putative starter at 1B against righties was hitting .121 in ST at last look, and if he’s not replaced, Jays fans will revolt. I think Pearce could take that job, hopefully not till after acquiring ESPN OF eligibility.
14.11 Koda Glover, RP, Was (Other AAA 15.10)
The night before this pick came up speculation came out that Dusty Baker might be intending to use this guy as his closer and I put him at the top of my queue. Next day when I came back from a trip and checked the news, Dusty had just confirmed that he was giving Glover a chance to show he can close. So I picked him.
So far Glover has a 1.13 ERA with an 11/1 K/BB ratio, looking good. And Dusty is a stubborn bastard, and it's not easy to change his mind. My biggest fear is not his competition but that the Nats will trade for a “proven closer” before the season.
15.06 Carlos Rodon, SP, CHW (Other AAA 15.07)
Another unpleasant development when Jordanski picked Nomar Mazara at 15.04. Mazara will be a real slugger someday and that day could be now. A better value that Kepler, whether he proves to be a better hitter this year or not.
The top of my queue was an undrafted outfielder who is the very definition of a vanilla choice, the very picture of a 5th outfielder, but not someone you want to start. So it was time to take a halt, catch my breath, update and review all my lists, and think about just where I was going in this draft from here.
There is absolutely no consensus among the cognoscenti about the next 10 starting pitchers here.
Rodon is often mentioned as a breakout candidate this year. But then he was last year too. One source called him a “third-year pitching breakout candidate”. I don’t believe there is such a thing; pitchers are not like 3rd-year wide receivers. However he was 3rd drafted overall and sent straight to the majors. He was 7-3 with a 3.45 ERA after a DL stint last year. He has the stuff, and is high-upside. To me that makes for an ideal 4th SP.
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| 5 | Nerfherders
ID: 2211442615
Fri, Mar 24, 2017, 16:49
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11.15 Hunter Pence, OF SF
For this turn I wanted best available hitter and MI, so I ended up with Pence here as the most solid player left on my board. He's not a sexy pick by any means, and certainly a health risk, but if he plays to even his average stats he will be fine.
12.02 Tim Anderson, SS CHW
I was hoping to find a SS with speed in this slot, and Anderson certainly fills the bill, even if that is all he will probably do. So right now I'm going to get steals from Turner and Anderson, and a few thrown in from Yelich and Dahl. I am pretty satisfied with that for now and maybe get another stealish guy later.
13.15 Joe Ross, SP WSH
Most of the mid-tier pitchers were gone at this point so I was left with the little diamonds in the rough that could really turn things around. I like Ross' potential if he can only stay in the rotation.
14.02 Nate Jones, RP CHW
I wanted an RP here and I had Jones and Madson in my queue. My theory here is Jones represents saves later, while Madson represents saves now. I am convinced Robertson gets traded at some point and Jones gets the job. Besides that, he's probably the third best non-closer reliever in the game, next to Miller and Betances. So I out-weighed Jones' superior stats against Madson's 50/50 shot to keep his job the whole year. Interestingly, Madson gets taken in the very next pick. (I had a similar judgement call in G20, where I picked Madson instead. The difference was in this league I already have 2 closers, while in that league I had 1.)
15.15 Justin Bour, 1B MIA
Bour fell this far only because he was hurt last year. His numbers, even in this format, are good enough to get into the top 10 rounds. I suddenly have alot of guys coming back from injury plagued seasons, which is a bit of a concern.
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| 6 | Jordan7361
ID: 71512716
Sat, Mar 25, 2017, 15:28
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11.04 (164 Overall) Michael Fulmer, SP, Det
Since the plan was to double up on pitchers AND considering that Fulmer was the top pitcher in my que on the last pick, there was no hesitation here. Fulmer is a great young arm with mega potential.
After the pick, as I often do, I started second guessing myself and wondered if I should have gotten MI out of the way here, but oh well…
12.13 (189 Overall) Steven Matz, SP, Mets
I thought about Matz and Smyly at 164. Smyly had gone a few picks prior. Then I started looking at the next couple tiers of SPs and feared I might not be able to make up ground down the road. Also, I felt that Matz should be gone at this point, so there wasn’t too much hesitation here. I better get back to hitting after this pick though.
13.04 (196 Overall) Dellin Betances, RP, NYY
Betances should have gone about 40 picks prior to this. Often times, I am forced into picks, and like the Khris Davis pick, I had no other choice but to take Dellin at 196.
In my option, he’s the best setup guy in baseball. He has unbelievable ERA, WHIP, and K/9…AND gets occasional wins/saves. Why did you all let him stick around this long?!
14.13 (221 Overall) Fernando Rodney, RP, Ari
Leading into this pick, I noticed that only 3 closers remained: Rodney, Kintzler, and Gomez. I had them in that order of priority and Kintzler went 3 picks before me, so I knew I had to take 1 of the last 2 guys or the next 3 owners would take both of them.
Did I just take 5 pitchers in a row? Wow!
15.04 (228 Overall) Nomar Mazara, OF, Tex
Nooooooo-maaaaar!!! I know…That’s a SNL reference to Nomar Garciaparra from back in the day, but who cares?! With 4 OF slots to fill and only having 2 thus far, I figured it would be a good idea to go OF on this pick. I wanted to go with Jarod Dyson and/or Jankowski for steals down the road and Dyson had already gone (surprisingly early), but I felt I could wait a few rounds on Jankowski, so I went with Nomar.
Last season, in another league I’m in known as Happy Baseball, I drafted Nomar and ended up having to drop him at one point because I didn’t have room for him. 2 days after that, he got the call and someone picked him up. I got him in Happy AND RIBC this year. Yayeah!
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| 7 | jaydog
ID: 57213279
Mon, Mar 27, 2017, 10:14
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11.14: Mike Moustakas, 3B, KC
Was looking for a 3B after missing out on Maikel Franco a few rounds ago, and Castellanos and Moustakas were the top two I had on my short list. After missing out on Castellanos, I figured I should jump on Moustakas. Had a great 2015, and was hurt early last season, but should be motivated to produce in a contract year. If he can show that 2015 wasn't a fluke, he's in for a huge payday, and will be a steal as my starting 3B.
12.03: Brad Miller, SS, TAM
This was my first big mistake of the draft. I was looking to fill my 2B slot, and there were still 3 guys I would have been happy with (Schoop, Travis, and Hernandez), and I felt like at least one of the three would fall to the next round. Thinking that, I went with who I thought was the best upside play here and took Miller. I didn't need a SS (Tulo), but still had a MI spot to play him, and since he's also 1B eligible he gives me some roster flexiblity. I like Miller a lot, even if he doesn't approach last years 30 HR's, he should still offer above average power and RBI's batting cleanup for TB. In retrospect, none of the 2B options survived, and I should have taken one of them, but hopefully Miller makes me forget the mistake.
13.14: Vince Velasquez, SP, PHI
Having whiffed on my 2B targets, I now felt I could wait a bit to fill that slot, so took a shot on a young power arm from Philly. The Phillies likely don't offer him too many wins, but if he can give me 10+ k/9, along with good control, and a manageable ERA... I should be set up pretty well with my pitching staff. I'd have taken Maurer here if he had fallen as a 3rd closer, and also considered Robbie Ray for his huge K upside, but felt Velasquez offered me similar strikeout potential without as much risk to my other categories.
14.03: Ryan Madson, RP, OAK
I've had some success in years past grabbing a 3rd closer from the bottom tier. Occasionally they flame out, but in the event they hold the job, it can make a big impact in the standings, at a pretty low cost. Missing out on Maurer in round 13, the closers left were Kintzler, Gomez, and Rodney. Glover hadn't (and still hasn't) been announced as the closer, and the Ottovino/Holland situation is still a bit iffy. Looking at the options, I thought Madson had the best chance to hold onto the job given his contract, skills, and those behind him. Also, his contract makes him a little tougher to trade mid season, which would risk him losing his closer job.
15.14: Ryan Schimpf, 2B, SDG
Finally time to jump on my 2B. Schimpf and Gyorko were two I was most interested in. I went with Schimpf, mostly because he has a clearer path to playing time. He had a huge half season in 2016, hitting 20 HR's in 90 games. Can't expect that to continue, but even if he regresses a bit, could offer a nice source of power and R/RBI, and if his walk rate stays in the 10% range, his OBP floor is higher than most options.
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