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Subject: RIBC 2017 AAA RATIONALES
Posted by: Judy
- [35493114] Sat, Mar 11, 2017, 19:35
21-25
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| 1 | slizz
ID: 3556212
Sun, Mar 26, 2017, 15:47
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21.01 - Jason Heyward, OF, CHC
It can't get much worse, can it? When Heyward signed with the Cubs, I thought that he was a vastly superior hitter to Dexter Fowler, who bounced around from team to team only to become relevant once he got to Chicago. I saw a 20/30 hitter in the Friendly Confines...that was anything but the case. All I can hope for is a bounce back to the 2015 season. If I can get that, I'll at least sprinkle in some SB with Runs.
22.16 - Daniel Norris, SP, DET
Man, I never expected to get THIS many starters...love Norris, was targeting both he and Bundy in G20, but got neither...Norris was great in September, and I'm hoping he carries that momentum into the 2017 season. Here's to hoping a handful of the starters break out!
23.01 - Andrelton Simmons, SS, LAA
This was about filling my MI for the first two weeks. Once Drury and Solarte gain MI eligibility, I fully anticipate dropping Simmons. Figured it was better to take him now then be left with nothing.
24.16 - Charlie Morton, SP, HOU
When Keith Law speaks, you listen. As his #1 breakout of 2017, he was nowhere on my radar until he blogged about it the other day:
...So far this March, he has looked as good if not better for the astros, with his fastball sitting at 94-96 mph, occasionally touching 98...Morton has never been a 2.0 plus WAR pitcher by any measure, but I think he'll destroy that mark this year even if he pitches only 160 or so innings."
Morton has been a low 90's pitcher most of his career...if he does as Law anticipates, I just landed Jose Quintana production in the 24th round. Here's hoping!
25.01 - Avisail Garcia, OF/DH/, CHW
Warm body.
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| 2 | jaydog
ID: 57213279
Mon, Mar 27, 2017, 10:38
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21.14: Jordan Zimmerman, SP, DET
Onto the final 5... Zimmerman had a brutal 2016 after signing a big contract in Detroit. Hopefully his terrible year can be attributed to injury, and assuming a rebound to his pre 2016 form, he should offer me good value as my 6th starter.
22.03: Matt Joyce, OF, OAK
I was between Conforto and Joyce with this pick, and actually though I had taken Conforto, but picked the wrong choice out of my list... oh well :) Conforto has more upside, but doesn't have a clear path to playing time in a crowded Mets outfield. Joyce should play almost every day, and has been an OBP machine of late. As a fill in platoon player, being elite in one category is about all you can ask for in the 22nd round.
23.14: Kevin Siegrist, RP, STL
I always try to handcuff my closers, especially my shaky ones, but have failed to do so in this draft missing out on both Addison Reed and Sean Doolittle. Siegrist, at least gives me a handcuff to Oh. Hoping Oh repeats his 2016, and if he does, Siegrist should still be a valuable source of high K innings.
24.03: Travis d'Arnaud, C, NYM
Wasn't really planning on drafting a backup C, given Posey, but with a lack of intriguing options available, I decided to take d'Arnaud. Seemingly always injured, and even when not injured, disappointing, I figure he has one chance left to prove he's a MLB caliber catcher. He's had a good spring so far, but if he flames out again, or gets injured, he'll be easy to drop.
25.14: Brett Anderson, SP, CHC
Was between a few options here, and went with Anderson. Will start the year as the Cubs 4th/5th starter. As long as he's on my roster, I can play matchups against some really weak NL lineups, and likely snake some wins. If he gets hurt, as he always does, or craps the bed, I'll turn elsewhere.
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| 3 | Toral
ID: 0181517
Mon, Mar 27, 2017, 11:27
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21.06 Alex Cobb, SP, TB (RIBC 19.12)
We’re definitely done with rationales now. From here on it’s all rationalizations....
As one of my sources says, when Cobb is on the mound, he has the potential to be a top-20 option. He’s also not re-established himself after Tommy John surgery, has not reacquired his velocity in ST games, although he supposedly has in practice, and was scratched from his last start due to back tightness.
I think he will pitch well sometime this season; the question is whether I can hold him on my roster long enuf.
22.11 Tyler Saladino, SS/2B, CWS (RIBC 17.15)
Ron Shandler asked last week, why would anyone even draft Tyler Saladino? (He thinks Yoan Moncada (14.01) is going to get called up sooner rather than later.)
The answer, Ron, is that Saladino is the Pale Hose starting second baseman, has dual SS/2B eligibility, was hitting .406/.472/.813 in ST when I looked at him, will steal at a double-digit clip while he’s playing, and it’s not impossible that Frazier will be traded or sidelined by oblique injury and Moncada will end up at third base.
23.06 Hector Rondon, RP, ChC (Other AAA 18.01)
Wade Davis is the top tier closer I feel is least likely to make it through the season. He hit the DL twice last year, with forearm and elbow strain. He lost some velocity last year and the effort to get it back will likely strain his arm again.
OTOH Rondon had his own health issues himself, and doesn’t look like much in ST.
24.11 Tyler Thornburg, RP, Bos (RIBC 21.14)
Kimbrel’s backup, has shown closer-level ability.
25.06 Jason Grilli, RP, Tor
Catcher, catcher, who needs a catcher? We’ve got a week to go to the season becuz the draft started too damn early and went too damn fast. 3 days too early, right inline with my suggested starting time; if only my baseball projections could be so spot-on accurate. Any kind of change in closer situations could occur before the season starts.
Osuna has had neck and back problems this ST, which the Jays assure us are no big concern. Uh huh. If it turns out he’s out early, Grilli might take his place.
I’ve gone without drafting a catcher before, and it worked as well as drafting Buster Posey early, which I’ve also tried. Although I have been hurt by people drafting 2 catchers. Why would anyone draft 2 catchers in a league with 4 bench spots, unless your catcher is injured like Murphy (22.02), who was a good pickup? Just to spite me, I suppose.
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| 4 | Nerfherders
ID: 33543714
Mon, Mar 27, 2017, 12:38
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21.15 Carl Edwards, RP CHC
I was in a little bit of a pickle here, as I was without my computer and my cheat sheet in the morning without being able to do alot of research, and because being on the west coast I was going to time out fairly soon after getting up and leaving the house. I don't regret taking Edwards here, but I wished I could have looked at all of the available RP and made a more informed choice. I might have also unwittingly got the handcuff for Wade Davis, which would be a bonus.
22.03 Tom Murphy, C COL
I've never punted on catcher this far in the draft, but catcher as a position is in a really bad place offensively right now. It's just one of those eras. If you don't spend a high slot on the top 3 you might as well wait. Besides that, I have never had much luck drafting a catcher in the middle rounds. D'arnoud last year, Gattis the year before, Castro the year before that. All dissapointing at best. I figured this time I would wait, but I couldn't wait anymore and got the best upside catcher in the draft. The only problem is he's hurt and out for at least the first 2 weeks of the season, and more likely the first month. That's okay if he can put up some numbers.
23.15 Brandon Moss, OF KC
Now it's time to find a player who might put up some numbers from the bench. I had luck last year with Beltran from a similar position. I'm hoping Moss will at least hit well when I have to play him, and he'll have a bit of position flexibility along with Valencia and Turner.
24.02 Mychal Givens, RP BAL
Just a good RP guy. Perfectly servicible and fungible.
25.15 Tony Wolters, C COL
Simply Murphy's handcuff and filler while he's out. I'm not expecting much from him but it helps in the fact that when Murphy does come back, I can platoon them a bit.
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