| 0 |
Subject: Happy Baseball 2018 Pre-Season Thread
Posted by: Fosten
- [4097314] Wed, Feb 14, 2018, 12:58
Draft Lottery
1 Jason Nadolsky
2 Cory Thomas
3 Jordan Rodgers
4 Ray Breta
5 Eric Spiker
6 Brian Davis
7 Andy Biter
8 Russell Enedy
9 Craig Balch
10 Eric Wiggins
11 Rick Custer
12 Dave Lipman
13 Bruce Scott
14 Justin Kiel
15 Sean Burke
16 Jay Sherby
17 Amit Simha
18 Tim Robine
19 Ryan Hoover
20 Brian Adams
Please indicate your Draft Slot below. |
| 1 | Fosten
ID: 4097314
Wed, Feb 14, 2018, 16:02
|
1 JNadolsky
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
|
| 2 | Fosten
ID: 4097314
Wed, Feb 14, 2018, 16:52
|
1 JNadolsky
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10 Cuba
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
|
| 3 | Fosten
ID: 4097314
Wed, Feb 14, 2018, 17:23
|
1 JNadolsky
2 Jordanski
3 HGHSluggers
4 Spiker
5 Fosten
6
7
8
9
10 Cuba
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
RoBoGooRoo is up, Russ on deck, C1-NRB in the hole.
|
| 4 | Andy
ID: 111411417
Wed, Feb 14, 2018, 18:41
|
1 JNadolsky
2 Jordanski
3 HGHSluggers
4 Spiker
5 Fosten
6 RoBoGuRu
7
8
9
10 Cuba
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
RoBoGooRoo is up, Russ on deck, C1-NRB in the hole.
|
| 5 | Fosten
ID: 71111419
Wed, Feb 14, 2018, 20:11
|
Russ takes 7.
C1-NRB is up, wiggs on deck, Custer in the hole.
|
| 6 | C1-NRB
ID: 92521217
Wed, Feb 14, 2018, 21:48
|
1 JNadolsky
2 Jordanski
3 HGHSluggers
4 Spiker
5 Fosten
6 RoBoGuRu
7 Russ
8 C1-NRB
9
10 Cuba
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
wiggs is up, Rick on deck
|
| 7 | Wiggs
ID: 20502821
Wed, Feb 14, 2018, 23:14
|
hole.
6 C1-NRB
ID: 92521217
Wed, Feb 14, 2018, 21:48 1 JNadolsky
2 Jordanski
3 HGHSluggers
4 Spiker
5 Fosten
6 RoBoGuRu
7 Russ
8 C1-NRB
9 wiggs
10 Cuba
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
Rick is up, Bh on deck
|
| 8 | Fosten
ID: 4097314
Thu, Feb 15, 2018, 10:17
|
Rick takes 19.
blue hen is up, mailedfoot on deck, JP in the hole.
|
| 10 | blue hen
ID: 5254718
Thu, Feb 15, 2018, 10:32
|
1 JNadolsky
2 Jordanski
3 HGHSluggers
4 Spiker
5 Fosten
6 RoBoGuRu
7 Russ
8 C1-NRB
9 wiggs
10 Cuba
11 Blue Hen
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19 Rick
20
|
| 11 | mailedfoot
ID: 41154159
Thu, Feb 15, 2018, 10:55
|
1 JNadolsky
2 Jordanski
3 HGHSluggers
4 Spiker
5 Fosten
6 RoBoGuRu
7 Russ
8 C1-NRB
9 wiggs
10 Cuba
11 Blue Hen
12 mailedfoot
13
14
15
16
17
18
19 Rick
20
|
| 12 | Fosten
ID: 4097314
Thu, Feb 15, 2018, 11:02
|
1 JNadolsky
2 Jordanski
3 HGHSluggers
4 Spiker
5 Fosten
6 RoBoGuRu
7 Russ
8 C1-NRB
9 wiggs
10 Cuba
11 Blue Hen
12 mailedfoot
13
14
15
16
17
18
19 Rick
20 JP
Seanfeld is up, slizz on deck, WG in the hole.
|
| 13 | Fosten
ID: 4097314
Thu, Feb 15, 2018, 11:28
|
Seanfeld laughs in the face of superstition, 13.
|
| 14 | slizz
ID: 310522313
Thu, Feb 15, 2018, 12:22
|
1 JNadolsky
2 Jordanski
3 HGHSluggers
4 Spiker
5 Fosten
6 RoBoGuRu
7 Russ
8 C1-NRB
9 wiggs
10 Cuba
11 Blue Hen
12 mailedfoot
13 Seanfeld
14 Slizz
15 WG
16
17
18
19 Rick
20 JP
|
| 15 | Tim
ID: 251591514
Thu, Feb 15, 2018, 15:59
|
18 This draft pick thing is bullshit and not that random. It's pretty awesome to pick 15 or worse every single year since it's been implemented and other teams are top 5 every single year.
|
| 16 | blue hen
ID: 5254718
Thu, Feb 15, 2018, 17:22
|
Let's see some stats!
|
| 17 | Fosten
ID: 4097314
Thu, Feb 15, 2018, 18:17
|
Tim is referring to a 3-year trend:
- Nadolsky: 1, 1, 2
- Robine: 18, 11, 20
Had we randomized by last name instead of first,
Tim would have drawn 3 and Nadolsky would have drawn 16.
Unfortunately, Tim asked that we change things up this year. Bad luck.
|
| 18 | Fosten
ID: 4097314
Thu, Feb 15, 2018, 18:56
|
1 JNadolsky
2 Jordanski
3 HGHSluggers
4 Spiker
5 Fosten
6 RoBoGuRu
7 Russ
8 C1-NRB
9 wiggs
10 Cuba
11 Blue Hen
12 mailedfoot
13 Seanfeld
14 Slizz
15 WG
16 Hoover
17 BA
18 Robine
19 Rick
20 JP
Thanks everyone! Draft will be begin momentarily...
|
| 21 | Fosten
ID: 4097314
Fri, Feb 16, 2018, 09:11
|
In 2018, lottery numbers continued to normalize towards the 10.5 ideal:
- Long-term Veterans: 9.89 -> 10.0 (10.07 last or 9.93 first) for a 2.7% advantage over 7.9 years
- Short-term Veterans: 9.06 -> 9.28 (9.41 last or 9.16 first) for a 6.4% advantage over 4.8 years
Seemingly, the switch from last name to first name, resulted in bad luck for:
- 4/10 Long-term Veterans, 2/5 Short-term Veterans, and 4/5 Rookies
- Rookies actual: 7.8 last -> 11.8 first for a 19.1% downswing to a 6.2% disadvantage this year
However, in 2 sample sets rather than 1, Rookies numbers return to normal:
- Rookies average: 9.8 both = 3.3% advantage or 0.9% ahead of the longs and 2.5% behind the shorts
If anyone can see more patterns, your eyes are better than mine.
| 11L | 12L | 13L | 14L | 15L | 16L | 17L | AVG | 18L | AVG | 18F | AVG | L/F | F/L | AVG | Avg % | Actual % | | aB | 8 | 8 | 1 | 13 | 14 | 7 | 16 | 9.57 | 20 | 10.88 | 7 | 9.25 | | | | | | | rB | 9 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 19 | 14 | 9.57 | 6 | 9.13 | 4 | 8.88 | | | | | | | sB | 3 | 4 | 13 | 16 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 8.00 | 13 | 8.63 | 15 | 8.88 | | | | | | | bD | 15 | 6 | 16 | 11 | 6 | 17 | 20 | 13.00 | 9 | 12.50 | 6 | 12.13 | | | | | | | rH | 17 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 15 | 1 | 7 | 7.14 | 5 | 6.88 | 19 | 8.63 | | | | | | | jK | | 15 | 10 | 2 | 20 | 5 | 3 | 9.17 | 14 | 9.86 | 10 | 9.29 | | | | | | | jN | 6 | 9 | 19 | 20 | 19 | 2 | 1 | 10.86 | 16 | 11.50 | 1 | 9.63 | | | | | | | tR | 12 | 16 | 7 | 18 | 16 | 20 | 11 | 14.29 | 3 | 12.88 | 18 | 14.75 | | | | | | | aS | 1 | 20 | 9 | 12 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 9.43 | 8 | 9.25 | 17 | 10.38 | | | | | | | eS | 7 | 17 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 15 | 5 | 7.86 | 19 | 9.25 | 5 | 7.50 | | | | | | | 2018 | | | | | | | | | 11.3 | | 10.2 | | -3.8% | +1.4% | | | | | AVG | | | | | | | | 9.89 | | 10.07 | | 9.93 | | | 10.00 | +2.4% | +2.7% | | bA | | | 11 | 1 | 18 | 3 | 2 | 7.00 | 17 | 8.67 | 20 | 9.17 | | | | | | | rE | | | | | 1 | 14 | 10 | 8.33 | 12 | 9.25 | 8 | 8.25 | | | | | | | dL | | | | | | 9 | 6 | 7.50 | 1 | 5.33 | 12 | 9.00 | | | | | | | jR | | | 17 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 19 | 15.20 | 14 | 15.00 | 3 | 13.17 | | | | | | | cT | | | | 4 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 7.25 | 15 | 8.80 | 2 | 6.20 | | | | | | | 2018 | | | | | | | | | 11.8 | | 9 | | -6.2% | +7.1% | | | | | AVG | | | | | | | | 9.06 | | 9.41 | | 9.16 | | | 9.28 | +5.8% | +6.4% | | cB | | | | | | | | | 7 | | 9 | | | | | | | | rC | | | | | | | | | 2 | | 11 | | | | | | | | bS | | | | | | | | | 4 | | 13 | | | | | | | | jS | | | | | | | | | 11 | | 16 | | | | | | | | eW | | | | | | | | | 15 | | 10 | | | | | | | | 2018 | | | | | | | | | 7.8 | | 11.8 | | +12.9% | -6.2% | | | | | AVG | | | | | | | | | | 7.8 | | 11.8 | | | 9.8 | +3.3% | -6.2% |
|
| 22 | Fosten
ID: 4097314
Fri, Feb 16, 2018, 16:47
|
Or as Scott Steiner would say: See, normally if you go one on one with another wrestler, you got a 50/50 chance of winning. But I'm a genetic freak and I'm not normal! So you got a 25%, AT BEST, at beat me. Then you add Kurt Angle to the mix, your chances of winning drastic go down. See the 3 way, at Sacrifice, you got a 33 1/3 chance of winning, but I, I got a 66 and 2/3 chance of winning, because Kurt Angle KNOWS he can't beat me and he's not even gonna try! So Samoa Joe, you take your 33 1/3 chance, minus my 25% chance and you got an 8 1/3 chance of winning at Sacrifice. But then you take my 75% chance of winning, if we was to go one on one, and then add 66 2/3 percents, I got 141 2/3 chance of winning at Sacrifice. See Joe, the numbers don't lie, and they spell disaster for you at Sacrifice.
|
|
|
|
Post a reply to this message: Happy Baseball 2018 Pre-Season Thread
|