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Subject: Happy Baseball 2018 Pre-Season Thread
Posted by: Fosten
- [4097314] Wed, Feb 14, 2018, 12:58
Draft Lottery
1 Jason Nadolsky 2 Cory Thomas 3 Jordan Rodgers 4 Ray Breta 5 Eric Spiker 6 Brian Davis 7 Andy Biter 8 Russell Enedy 9 Craig Balch 10 Eric Wiggins 11 Rick Custer 12 Dave Lipman 13 Bruce Scott 14 Justin Kiel 15 Sean Burke 16 Jay Sherby 17 Amit Simha 18 Tim Robine 19 Ryan Hoover 20 Brian Adams
Please indicate your Draft Slot below. |
1 | Fosten
ID: 4097314 Wed, Feb 14, 2018, 16:02
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1 JNadolsky 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
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2 | Fosten
ID: 4097314 Wed, Feb 14, 2018, 16:52
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1 JNadolsky 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Cuba 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
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3 | Fosten
ID: 4097314 Wed, Feb 14, 2018, 17:23
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1 JNadolsky 2 Jordanski 3 HGHSluggers 4 Spiker 5 Fosten 6 7 8 9 10 Cuba 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
RoBoGooRoo is up, Russ on deck, C1-NRB in the hole.
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4 | Andy
ID: 111411417 Wed, Feb 14, 2018, 18:41
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1 JNadolsky 2 Jordanski 3 HGHSluggers 4 Spiker 5 Fosten 6 RoBoGuRu 7 8 9 10 Cuba 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
RoBoGooRoo is up, Russ on deck, C1-NRB in the hole.
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5 | Fosten
ID: 71111419 Wed, Feb 14, 2018, 20:11
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Russ takes 7. C1-NRB is up, wiggs on deck, Custer in the hole.
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6 | C1-NRB
ID: 92521217 Wed, Feb 14, 2018, 21:48
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1 JNadolsky 2 Jordanski 3 HGHSluggers 4 Spiker 5 Fosten 6 RoBoGuRu 7 Russ 8 C1-NRB 9 10 Cuba 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
wiggs is up, Rick on deck
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7 | Wiggs
ID: 20502821 Wed, Feb 14, 2018, 23:14
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hole. 6 C1-NRB ID: 92521217 Wed, Feb 14, 2018, 21:48 1 JNadolsky 2 Jordanski 3 HGHSluggers 4 Spiker 5 Fosten 6 RoBoGuRu 7 Russ 8 C1-NRB 9 wiggs 10 Cuba 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Rick is up, Bh on deck
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8 | Fosten
ID: 4097314 Thu, Feb 15, 2018, 10:17
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Rick takes 19. blue hen is up, mailedfoot on deck, JP in the hole.
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10 | blue hen
ID: 5254718 Thu, Feb 15, 2018, 10:32
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1 JNadolsky 2 Jordanski 3 HGHSluggers 4 Spiker 5 Fosten 6 RoBoGuRu 7 Russ 8 C1-NRB 9 wiggs 10 Cuba 11 Blue Hen 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 Rick 20
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11 | mailedfoot
ID: 41154159 Thu, Feb 15, 2018, 10:55
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1 JNadolsky 2 Jordanski 3 HGHSluggers 4 Spiker 5 Fosten 6 RoBoGuRu 7 Russ 8 C1-NRB 9 wiggs 10 Cuba 11 Blue Hen 12 mailedfoot 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 Rick 20
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12 | Fosten
ID: 4097314 Thu, Feb 15, 2018, 11:02
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1 JNadolsky 2 Jordanski 3 HGHSluggers 4 Spiker 5 Fosten 6 RoBoGuRu 7 Russ 8 C1-NRB 9 wiggs 10 Cuba 11 Blue Hen 12 mailedfoot 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 Rick 20 JP
Seanfeld is up, slizz on deck, WG in the hole.
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13 | Fosten
ID: 4097314 Thu, Feb 15, 2018, 11:28
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Seanfeld laughs in the face of superstition, 13.
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14 | slizz
ID: 310522313 Thu, Feb 15, 2018, 12:22
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1 JNadolsky 2 Jordanski 3 HGHSluggers 4 Spiker 5 Fosten 6 RoBoGuRu 7 Russ 8 C1-NRB 9 wiggs 10 Cuba 11 Blue Hen 12 mailedfoot 13 Seanfeld 14 Slizz 15 WG 16 17 18 19 Rick 20 JP
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15 | Tim
ID: 251591514 Thu, Feb 15, 2018, 15:59
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18 This draft pick thing is bullshit and not that random. It's pretty awesome to pick 15 or worse every single year since it's been implemented and other teams are top 5 every single year.
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16 | blue hen
ID: 5254718 Thu, Feb 15, 2018, 17:22
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Let's see some stats!
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17 | Fosten
ID: 4097314 Thu, Feb 15, 2018, 18:17
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Tim is referring to a 3-year trend: - Nadolsky: 1, 1, 2 - Robine: 18, 11, 20 Had we randomized by last name instead of first, Tim would have drawn 3 and Nadolsky would have drawn 16. Unfortunately, Tim asked that we change things up this year. Bad luck.
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18 | Fosten
ID: 4097314 Thu, Feb 15, 2018, 18:56
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1 JNadolsky 2 Jordanski 3 HGHSluggers 4 Spiker 5 Fosten 6 RoBoGuRu 7 Russ 8 C1-NRB 9 wiggs 10 Cuba 11 Blue Hen 12 mailedfoot 13 Seanfeld 14 Slizz 15 WG 16 Hoover 17 BA 18 Robine 19 Rick 20 JP
Thanks everyone! Draft will be begin momentarily...
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21 | Fosten
ID: 4097314 Fri, Feb 16, 2018, 09:11
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In 2018, lottery numbers continued to normalize towards the 10.5 ideal: - Long-term Veterans: 9.89 -> 10.0 (10.07 last or 9.93 first) for a 2.7% advantage over 7.9 years - Short-term Veterans: 9.06 -> 9.28 (9.41 last or 9.16 first) for a 6.4% advantage over 4.8 years Seemingly, the switch from last name to first name, resulted in bad luck for: - 4/10 Long-term Veterans, 2/5 Short-term Veterans, and 4/5 Rookies - Rookies actual: 7.8 last -> 11.8 first for a 19.1% downswing to a 6.2% disadvantage this year However, in 2 sample sets rather than 1, Rookies numbers return to normal: - Rookies average: 9.8 both = 3.3% advantage or 0.9% ahead of the longs and 2.5% behind the shorts If anyone can see more patterns, your eyes are better than mine.
| 11L | 12L | 13L | 14L | 15L | 16L | 17L | AVG | 18L | AVG | 18F | AVG | L/F | F/L | AVG | Avg % | Actual % | aB | 8 | 8 | 1 | 13 | 14 | 7 | 16 | 9.57 | 20 | 10.88 | 7 | 9.25 | | | | | | rB | 9 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 19 | 14 | 9.57 | 6 | 9.13 | 4 | 8.88 | | | | | | sB | 3 | 4 | 13 | 16 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 8.00 | 13 | 8.63 | 15 | 8.88 | | | | | | bD | 15 | 6 | 16 | 11 | 6 | 17 | 20 | 13.00 | 9 | 12.50 | 6 | 12.13 | | | | | | rH | 17 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 15 | 1 | 7 | 7.14 | 5 | 6.88 | 19 | 8.63 | | | | | | jK | | 15 | 10 | 2 | 20 | 5 | 3 | 9.17 | 14 | 9.86 | 10 | 9.29 | | | | | | jN | 6 | 9 | 19 | 20 | 19 | 2 | 1 | 10.86 | 16 | 11.50 | 1 | 9.63 | | | | | | tR | 12 | 16 | 7 | 18 | 16 | 20 | 11 | 14.29 | 3 | 12.88 | 18 | 14.75 | | | | | | aS | 1 | 20 | 9 | 12 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 9.43 | 8 | 9.25 | 17 | 10.38 | | | | | | eS | 7 | 17 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 15 | 5 | 7.86 | 19 | 9.25 | 5 | 7.50 | | | | | | 2018 | | | | | | | | | 11.3 | | 10.2 | | -3.8% | +1.4% | | | | AVG | | | | | | | | 9.89 | | 10.07 | | 9.93 | | | 10.00 | +2.4% | +2.7% | bA | | | 11 | 1 | 18 | 3 | 2 | 7.00 | 17 | 8.67 | 20 | 9.17 | | | | | | rE | | | | | 1 | 14 | 10 | 8.33 | 12 | 9.25 | 8 | 8.25 | | | | | | dL | | | | | | 9 | 6 | 7.50 | 1 | 5.33 | 12 | 9.00 | | | | | | jR | | | 17 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 19 | 15.20 | 14 | 15.00 | 3 | 13.17 | | | | | | cT | | | | 4 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 7.25 | 15 | 8.80 | 2 | 6.20 | | | | | | 2018 | | | | | | | | | 11.8 | | 9 | | -6.2% | +7.1% | | | | AVG | | | | | | | | 9.06 | | 9.41 | | 9.16 | | | 9.28 | +5.8% | +6.4% | cB | | | | | | | | | 7 | | 9 | | | | | | | rC | | | | | | | | | 2 | | 11 | | | | | | | bS | | | | | | | | | 4 | | 13 | | | | | | | jS | | | | | | | | | 11 | | 16 | | | | | | | eW | | | | | | | | | 15 | | 10 | | | | | | | 2018 | | | | | | | | | 7.8 | | 11.8 | | +12.9% | -6.2% | | | | AVG | | | | | | | | | | 7.8 | | 11.8 | | | 9.8 | +3.3% | -6.2% |
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22 | Fosten
ID: 4097314 Fri, Feb 16, 2018, 16:47
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Or as Scott Steiner would say: See, normally if you go one on one with another wrestler, you got a 50/50 chance of winning. But I'm a genetic freak and I'm not normal! So you got a 25%, AT BEST, at beat me. Then you add Kurt Angle to the mix, your chances of winning drastic go down. See the 3 way, at Sacrifice, you got a 33 1/3 chance of winning, but I, I got a 66 and 2/3 chance of winning, because Kurt Angle KNOWS he can't beat me and he's not even gonna try! So Samoa Joe, you take your 33 1/3 chance, minus my 25% chance and you got an 8 1/3 chance of winning at Sacrifice. But then you take my 75% chance of winning, if we was to go one on one, and then add 66 2/3 percents, I got 141 2/3 chance of winning at Sacrifice. See Joe, the numbers don't lie, and they spell disaster for you at Sacrifice.
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