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0 Subject: RIBC AAA PCL (ESPN) 2018 Rationales

Posted by: JeffG
- [0151257] Thu, Mar 15, 2018, 00:10

Copied from other AAA

Draft rationales for AAA are optional but strongly encouraged. A couple of rules about rationales to keep in mind:

1. post 2-3 rounds behind the current pick

2. Never post the name of an undrafted player


For your round 1 pick if you choose to do rationales, please post your rationale and a little blurb about why you took the draft spot you took.
1JeffG
      ID: 0151257
      Thu, Mar 15, 2018, 00:25
Pick 7. Had the seventh choice and my desire was to take the pick closest to the beginning available. The six managers before me thought the same way. Got 7. No real reason other than to get the best player available to me round 1

1.07 Bryce Harper OF Was
Set a big queue of 7, and figured my choice would be whoever was left over from Votto, Harper, and Bryant (who I had in that order). Did not have Turner or Kershaw in my top 7 but thought if any of them went in top 6, the three I mentioned would be my options. Votto was gone so Harper it is. I could say he is looking to play for next years contract so expect a monster season, but his resume is solid regardless. The ASG is in his home ballpark, but he just needs to be healthy and he is on the team. But no reason to doubt he’ll have an off year. Bryce is consistent, productive as hell, and one of only three players projected above .415/.560.
2JeffG
      ID: 0151257
      Thu, Mar 15, 2018, 00:49
2.10 Chris Sale SP Bos
Was looking for a top tier SP. Sale was the last one from that tier for me left. If he was taken probably would have waited for the turn at 3 and grabbed Donaldson. But Sale was there. A K and inning machine who should have an ERA just north of 3 and a WHIP around 1.10. Playing in the AL East does not scare me as much as prior years (except for one Red Sox division opponent)

3.07 Edwin Encarnacion 1B Cle
Was hoping Bregman or Rendon fell here, so ended up choosing EE over NCruz based on Edwin having a position other than DH, high ratios, and projected counting stats in a loaded lineup. I’ll deal with steals somehow later

4.10 Elvis Andrus SS Tex
Can’t wait too long to grab a MI, position drops off so quick. Plus I had him Just behind a few 1B and OF on my board, but elevated Elvis based on being a shortstop. Won’t drain the ratios like the MI down draft will, should score and drive in around 80 and good for a dozen steals

5.07 Dallas Keuchel SP Hou
Not as many starters going off the board as I would have thought, so picked up one I think will have a very good season. Buying low as his stock is dropping based on some injury issues the last two years and a poor finish over the second half of last year. But when he is on, he is as good as any lefty in the game. On a good team, in an average division, with a solid bullpen.

3Species
      SuperDude
      ID: 07724916
      Thu, Mar 15, 2018, 13:51
Draft Slot #10: I generally prefer to be in the middle and I did not see a huge difference in my round 2 position to tempt me into taking a lower spot.

1.10 Freddie Freeman, 1b, ATL
Apparently I am the highest on Freeman this year in the RIBC drafts......and I really wonder why. OK, maybe he won't be a 120 RBI guy, but 100/100 seems easy and his ratios stood out from my perspective. Freeman was awesome last year and honestly I expect him to be even better this year. In round 1 you typically do not pay for upside, but I think there is upside here.

I probably should have given Mookie Betts more consideration, but I dismissed him relatively quickly due to more pedestrian ratios. I did not even consider Blackmon - I wasn't ready to pay for a career year with a Round 1 price.

2.07 Aaron Judge, OF, NYY\
When Noah Syndergaard went at 2.04, I jumped for joy, because it guaranteed that one of Judge, Donaldson or JD Martinez would fall to me here. I was all prepared to take Donaldson (who I think is awesome if not underrated this year) but when Judge fell there was no way I was resisting. Particularly at this draft position, Judge does not need to recreate his insane 1.049 OPS to be a great value pick. With a .950 OPS and 100/100 he is a steal here.

Steals/surprises in Round 2 - the aforementioned Syndergaard seemed very optimistic and I thought Corey Seager was taken pretty early.

3.10 Christian Yelich, OF, MIL
When Yelich fell to me here, it made me go back and make sure I sorted my projections correctly, as my projections have him like #24 overall. I value elite OBP early in these drafts to the combo of a .370+ OBP (and between better lineup protection and Miller Park, I hope that can go up), 17-ish steals and 100/90 runs/rbi made this a pretty easy pick. I would have been tempted by Encarnacion or Abreu here but they were gone.

Steals/surprises in Round 3 - Valkyrie getting skipped and have around 5 picks go through before he returned. Seeing guys like Upton and Marte go in this round was a little surprising. I thought Buster Posey was a real reach here. I liked Rendon here, but he wasn't a steal as much as solid value.

4.07 Justin Verlander, SP, HOU
I wanted Justin Turner here, so had to change direction when he went a couple picks ahead of me. Taking a SP went against my expectation of roughly duplicating "The Guru Strategy" of not taking a SP until the 8th/9th-ish round. But I valued Verlander in the same tier with the likes of Degrom, Severino and Grienke so I felt I was getting the last of a strong Tier 2 in Round 4. My other main consideration with this pick was a middle infielder. But, none of them really stood out, and there were 7 or 8 of them that were all grouped together, so I figured I could wait. Ooops.

Steals/surprises in Round 4 - the vehemence of the MI run surprised me. The biggest surprise was Billy Hamilton - particularly by Fosten who already has Turner. Seems strange to torpedo ratios for a commodity you already have one of the top 4 or 5 guys in. I loved the value of Turner at 4.05.

5.10 Trevor Story, SS, COL
As I sat and watched SEVEN middle infielders go out of 18 picks, I was reminded of my own general "rule" when it comes to runs on positions --- that I do not necessarily want to be the last guy to pick in that run. IMO, a big run opens up value at other positions -- players that are more valuable overall fall and represent strong buy opportunities.

But when I looked at the remaining shortstops I was not amused. Story is definitely a bit of a reach here and with significant risk. His strikeout percentage was massive last year in a regression year. That said, he is still a huge threat in Colorado and a candidate to rebound with something between his 2016 rookie year and his 2017 disappointment. He will get his counting stats, so if he can meet in the middle on his ratios this pick will turn out OK. I gave some consideration to Yoan Moncada but felt there was more depth at 2b that could be had later (and I was right).

Steals/surprises in Round 5 - Didn't feel the love for Khris Davis here, as he is much better in HR leagues than OBP/SLG leagues. Also do not believe in a resurgence for Andrew McCutcheon this year based upon ballpark and lineup factors. I did like Carlos Santana (a darling of OBP leagues) who I thought was real bargin.
4Seattle Zen
      ID: 1610533022
      Fri, Mar 16, 2018, 00:25
So I got the 14th pick of draft position and I ended up with the 14th pick, which I like because the greatest American League firstbaseman of the 1980s wore #14, Kent Hrbek. I really like the guys going around pick #20, so I would rather take 14 over 12 or 13. I was thinking I could start with Carlos Correa and then take Freddy Freeman at #19, but no one is sleeping on Freddy in RIBC as he was a first rounder. Never would I have imagined he would be taken before 1.14.14 Charlie Blackmon OF. I can't remember the last Charlie I have drafted, it's a great name. As great as Correa will be, I would have taken my namesake over Spanish Charles the shortstop because I also love 2.3.19 Francisco Lindor SS. I don't think Kris Bryant will earn what a #9 pick should. I was also thinking of going with Kershaw at #14 if he slipped there. He is much like Bryce Harper, if they stay healthy, they are going to be in the top three of all players, the type of player that delivers pennants. With Blackmon I get one of the few five category contributors left in our game. He was the second best player overall last year and I see no reason for him to slow down.

Lindor is a delight to watch and another five category stud but at the shortstop position. My SSs last year were awful, hopefully Lindor will give me a "set it and forget it" season as the Indians fight for the respect and recognition the Stros took from them last season. The picks flew around the turn and if Lindor was not there, I would have been fluxomed and not sure who I would go with. I like JD Martinez. Would I have gone with Aaron Judge? I can't imagine wanting to buy that lotto ticket. He had the most improbable rookie OPS ever. He struck out like 400 times and had a .420 OPS. Can he approach that again? I have doubts. Last season I took Chris Sale as my second pick and he was awesome. I was really surprised to see Thor get taken before him and Kluber, for that matter.

2010 was my first year in RIBC and I used to drive to Forks, WA every Monday to appear in court. I would go to the library and log into the internet to manage my queues at lunch. I was back there again this year, but this novelty was sadly interrupted by my boss calling me to tell me my colleague Jon passed away from a heart attack. Poor kid was only 27, it shocked everyone. It sure made me pause and reflect - no one is promised tomorrow. I also realized that there are few things I like more than a quality RIBC slowdraft. Glasses up for Jon.

Waiting for my third rounder was difficult as many of the bats I wanted got taken. I had a four starter Q - Greinke, de Grom, Severino, and Verlander, that I settled upon after Abreu was taken. As bat after bat gets taken, I start to rethink. I see that neither wolfer nor Thumqer have taken an OF and Wolf had Scherzer, so I felt that if there were at least two of those SPs left, one would make it back to me. I looked at some draft lists and 3.14.46 Justin Upton, OF was the highest available bat. Species, people like Upton because his slugging was a full one hundred points better than your pretty boy who hits grounders. The grass in Miller Park is slower than the turf at Marlins Stadium, I'd be worried. I liked what Upton did last year, especially how happy he was to be back in the warmth of southern CA. I have to believe he is a lock for 100 RBI. Steal 12 bases and slug over .500 and you are my man! But I also like Starling Marte. That guy could easily steal 40 and I wouldn't need to draft another guy who could steal more than 5 the rest of the way. And what about Tommy Pham? I feel the need for more slugging so J Upside it is. Sure enough, both wolfer and T take Marte and Pham and I just KNOW when I read their rationales, they will say that they were looking at Upton. And, lo and behold, 4.3.51 Zach Greinke, SP is still there! I like the DBacks and Zach has a higher floor and ceiling than Verlander in my mind. I don't know, I just fear that WS and wedding rings will make JV soft. But today I hear he may not be ready for Opening Day, crap!

I just told my girlfriend in a text that I am writing up a piece on my reasoning behind my draft picks in this drafts. "To put on your Bumble profile?" Ha! Yeah, nothing drops the panties faster than an OPS reference.
5Seattle Zen
      ID: 1610533022
      Fri, Mar 16, 2018, 01:26
I like Justin Turner, he kills it in points leagues, like top ten points per at bat. Maybe I should have taken him at #51. I am also a fan of Elvis Andrus, but I'm set at SS. Was hoping maybe Daniel Murphy or R Cano might make it to #78, but that was far too optimistic. By the time my pick is up, I'm taking my favorite young arm in the NL, 5.14.78 Aaron Nola, SP Baseball Prosectus turned me on to him last year and I got him in my ottoneu league. He improved and I expect another step up this year. The Phillies should be pretty good.

Five relievers have come off the board and there will be 28 players taken in between my 6th and 7th round picks. I figure around 12 of those 28 picks would be relievers and I would be stuck at the end of the closer run. 6.3.83 Aroldis Chapman, RP is one of the top three relievers on my list. He is still throwing seeds and striking out over 30% of the batters he faces. Unfortunately the Yankees are going to win a bunch of games this year, but none of them will be complete games, so Chappy might finally save 40.

There are 14 picks before mjd takes Doolittle, so there wasn't an immediate run. In the end, eight closers get taken before my next pick. I'm still okay with my Chapman pick at #83 because he was taken higher in each of the other RIBCs, in the Bigs bmd took him at #52.

Not sure what I want to do here after Miguel Sano was taken at 92. I am a big fan of 7.13.110 Jake Lamb, 3B His batting average may be in the .240s but he had the 11th best walk rate in the majors last year, shooting his OBP up to near .360. He was absolutely killing it last year until a hand injury slowed him down. Even with an injured hand that hampered his power, he still drove in over 100 runs. He's one guy who has an enormous amount of difference in value in RIBC versus regular roto.

I'm now torn on what to do with this pick. I have three or four second basemen that I like that are down toward the bottom of the list, around 18-25. I figured I would focus on other positions and wait on second, but then I remembered last year. I had a similar plan for shortstop, but our best laid plans... It's not as easy in a draft as it is in an auction. It seemed that other managers had their eyes on my favorite shortstop sleepers and I ended up with like the 18th shortstop off the board in the 19th round. Maybe I don't want to go through that again. Right now 8.3.115 Rougned Odor, 2nd is high on cheatsheet lists, real high. Much like how Jake Lamb benefits from his OBP, Odor is the opposite as he is allergic to ball four. He was pretty poor last year, yet he still knocked over thirty Perm Dudes out of various stadiums. He's only 24 and he punched Jose Bautista in the most convincing way. I spend a lot of time looking at projections. I have three sources that I really admire and trust and all three of them expect Rougned to bounce back and be a four category contributor. But what about Javier Baez? He, too, is a Sportscenter darling. And he has dual MI eligibility. But his OBP is putrid, too, and the Cubs have a lot of players vying for at bats. But what about Ryan Braun? He will outperform both of them. He certainly is capable of a 900 OPS season with all the trimmings, maybe even 10 steals. Why spend the time reviewing projections (numbers) if when the pressure is on I revert to my gut (firm and flat, but emotional)? Roll the dice, Odor is a top 10 second baseman and a perfect match for Lindor.
6Species
      SuperDude
      ID: 07724916
      Fri, Mar 16, 2018, 11:36
4: Upton vs. Yelich

Let's make a fun bet and use the ESPN Player Rater (assuming it can do so based upon the RIBC scoring system) and the loser has to author a post proclaiming the other manager is vastly superior (something to that effect).

PS - your Odor pick was awful! Happ WAY better! ;)
7Species
      SuperDude
      ID: 07724916
      Fri, Mar 16, 2018, 12:52
6.07 Rafael Devers, 3B, BOS
Ouch. After taking Story in the 5th I held hope that one of 3 2B would make it to me in the 6th in the form of Moncada, Merrifield or Albies. Three strikes and I am out.....

Instead of reaching for a 2B here I zigged and looked over 3b. Again, I saw a long list of very viable candidates between Devers, Sano, Beltre, Seager and Lamb and almost talked myself into passing on one and going elsewhere (probably Jose Quintana). But I didn't want to be on the wrong end of a run so I quickly narrowed down my search to Devers and Sano.

I own Sano in a keeper league so I am familiar with both his shortcomings (k rate) and his awesomeness (barrel%, hard hit%, exit velocity) and honestly rank him higher than Devers because of these factors. But between his domestic violence accusation and mumblings of him looking too much like Pablo Sandoval (out of shape) I chose Devers instead.

Devers is a beast and if he progresses along his development path he could end up driving in 100 runs.

Surprises/steals in Round 6 - I loved the Eric Hosmer pick and would have given him serious consideration had he gotten to me. Ratios will be consistent and he is a solid 90/90 guy. James Paxton was a curious pick - not because he wasn't worthy of selection, but because it was Jordan's 3rd straight SP - a trend he would continue in Rounds 7 AND 8 (?!?!???).

7.10 Cody Allen, RP, CLE
Good timing on the closer run for once. I passed on closer in round 6 figuring people would wait, and it worked. Allen was in a second tier of closers that I felt comfortable with. Job security is my first priority, and despite the presence of Andrew Miller, it has become apparent that Francona prefers him in a variety of spots and often in multiple innings.

Allen is the picture of consistency in terms of innings, saves and K rate. Cleveland is one of the better teams AND has a strong line of setup men to get to him. Admittedly I had a very hard time differentiating between Allen, E. Diaz and Ingelsias (who went in the next 2 picks).

I considered nothing else but closer here.

Surprises/steals in Round 7 - I love Matt Olson and think he will outperform some 1b ranked ahead of him.....but I question the round he was chosen in. That said, by this time in the draft ADP starts to go out the window, and when you have someone you like, sometimes you have to pick him a round or two early just to secure them. I also felt that Arrieta went too early - I think he is on a clear downslope and other SP would have been better values here.

8.07 Ian Happ, 2B/OF, CHC
I am going to start a *friendly* rivalry here with Seattle Zen and personally thank him for his bad pick of Roughned Odor over Ian Happ. As things were unfolding in Round 7 and I determined I needed to go closer, I went through my 2B rankings and honestly Ian Happ stood out as someone who should have already been picked. While his strikeout rate was high (can be common for rookies) he also nearly eclipsed a 10% walk rate, so his OBP was serviceable for someone slugging over .500. I expect him to do even better this year and be an absolute steal.

Surprises/steals in Round 8 - Kyle Seager is a boring but steady value here in round 8. I also really like Puig at the end of round 8 as well.
8Seattle Zen
      ID: 301361318
      Fri, Mar 16, 2018, 15:59
Re: 6

Yeah, why not? Upton beat the snot out of him last year, no reason why he won't do it again. And no one believes what I write anyways, so I have nothing to lose.

Yeah, I'm starting to think that Species lives in some Bizzaro world. If he likes a player, beware!
9JeffG
      ID: 0151257
      Sat, Mar 17, 2018, 11:06
6.10 Matt Carpenter 1B StL
Was sure this was going to be a closer pick, but 5 out of my original list of 10 acceptable players for my RP1 still on the board, I can wait 12 picks. Even though I already have Encarnacion as a 1B feel like Matt is a solid pickup for my MI slot. He will generate good counting stats in the middle of the Cards lineup and draws walks for an above average OBP. Matt slugged .500 in 2015-16 but came a little down to earth last season, but projections expect to level or take a slight uptick this season.

7.05 Wade Davis RP Col
Would have loved Felipe Rivero here, but cannot be greedy, Davis and Cody Allen fell here in the closer run and i’m happy with Davis as my RP1 here. A top 10 closer on a decent team, albeit with half their games at Coor Field he may be a little higher in the ratios than his elite counterparts but still solid and as a pure full season saves pick, he’s as secure in his position as anyone.

8.10 Kyle Seager 3B Sea
All but three teams in our league filled their third baseman slot, and after Seager, the drop off starts (One can argue Beltre still there, but I’m not sold, and I think Suarez also on the board has upside... and then the drop off, but I think Seager is it). Kind of no harm/no help to the ratios and projected slightly north of 80/80 in the counting. No help in the steals, but what mid/late round 3B is.

9.07 Alex Colome RP Tam
In the 10+ years of RIBC rationales, the closer 2 theme is usually the same. Need to reach to not punt saves, etc etc, I’m not going to be quick enough with free agents when closer news breaks, yadda yadda, get my 35 added saves and leave, blah blah blah. Personally, I love the uniqueness in rotisserie formats of the saves category. While one or two of the closers taken as the 25-35th reliver selected will get you the same value, there is also the real possibility that the second reliever each team takes will be a wasted pick, a wasted high pick. I think Colome is less of a risk here than the ones to come, the only risk I feel is a late July trade to a contender that may take him out of the closers role.

10.10 Justin Smoak 1B Sea
While I already have 3MI and need 2B and OF (Bryce Harper is getting lonely in my outfield), I am just going here with a top of my draft board hitter, who can slot in Util or ensure I keep the MI position filled on other players off days. A ratios pick, will help the SLG where I am going to need it when I start filling in my MI and late round bats. Kind of eyed Jay Bruce, Ryan Braun, and Conforto for a few rounds now but had other needs, and none fell to me here.
10mailedfoot
      ID: 531322718
      Sat, Mar 17, 2018, 14:32
1.11 Mookie Betts, OF, BOS
I selected Betts over Harper last year in RIBC and will admit to being frustrated over that decision at times during the season. But as old sayings go, time heals all wounds and hope springs eternal. Betts is a true 5 category contributor and when he was still available at pick 11, I didn't have to think very long to select him. Still only 25 and with an expected regression to better BABIP luck, he could end up as huge bargain at this draft slot.
11mailedfoot
      ID: 531322718
      Sat, Mar 17, 2018, 15:04
2.06 Corey Kluber, SP, CLE
Decided to get one of the aces here, thinking hopefully that I could get a 1B with the number three pick. Both Sale and Kluber were available and I went with Kluber since I'm thinking he will get to face a little more weaker competition in the AL central.

3.11 Andrew Benintendi, OF, BOS
The four 1B eligible players I was looking at were selected before my turn, squashing my original plan, so I selected Benintendi. I felt it was too soon to reach for any of the other 1B and I think he complements Betts nicely as another 5 category contributor hitting in a great park with a stacked lineup. Feeling good about these first three picks.
12mailedfoot
      ID: 542431719
      Sat, Mar 17, 2018, 20:46
4.06 Wil Myers, 1B, SD
Didn't want to wait any longer to get a first sacker and selected Myers because he has the ability contribute in all 5 categories. What he lacks in OBP he makes up for with 20 steals. With some regression he could improve the OBP and he will get OF eligibility so will also give me roster flexibility.

5.11 Joey Gallo, 3B, TEX
Three outcome players are not normally targets of mine but in the OBP format, Gallo could be a monster if he can follow up on the improvements he made in his BB/K% over the second half of last year. He also figures to chip in some SB and has eligibility at 3B and 1B.
13Seattle Zen
      ID: 1610533022
      Sun, Mar 18, 2018, 01:48
At this point I have taken three arms and five bats. I'm aiming for top available player and I have my eye on Ryan Braun, Kyle Hendricks, Alex Wood, Lance McCullers, and Luke Weaver. You know, most projections have 9.14.142 Adrian Beltre putting up another HOF season, cheating Father Time for another year. None of the first basemen are jumping out at me, I will fill my CI with a man who politely asks that you don't touch his head. If the numbers Beltre is projected to hit were attributed to a 25 year old, he would have been gone days ago. It was a close call between Adrian and Moose Tacos. Not interested in Kyle Seager, he disappointed me last year, he starts real slow every year then heats up and ends with decent numbers, except last year where he sucked throughout. He could get dumped to seventh in the line up this year if that happens again.

The last remaining closer I really like was Brandon Morrow, who Thumqer takes on the turn. I also like his Adam Eaton pick. I stayed away because I was leery of him not starting the season due to injury, but today I read that he was playing in a Spring Training game, so I took him in my local league's draft. Got my annual meet and greet with fellow league member Tosh. Our league is kiddie-pool shallow and we get to keep four players. I start the year with Goldschmidt, Scherzer, Freddy Freeman and Jose Ramirez. I think I'm going to beat Tosh again this year. :)

I have had my eye on 10.3.147 Jay Bruce, OF for a while. I bet most of you thought it was a reach, he's boring, low ceiling, poor OBP. But he is likely to bat third for the Mets and the last two years he has had great seasons. As White Bread As It Gets. And the wait for my first baseman goes on.

I've got a plan. Remember how I regaled you with the story of my plan for shortstop last year. I liked like four lower tier SS as breakout candidates, but when it was time to get them, everyone snapped them up. Well, it happened again this year but with first base. I had hoped to go with one of the following - Justin Bour, Josh Bell, Eric Thames, Ryan Zim, maybe Trey Mancini. I also liked Brandon Belt as a later rebound candidate, but DAMN, maybe I should have gone with one of them instead of Bruce. I watch all those guys fall off the board and I'm shocked. I now have Chris Davis at the top of my Q. But looking at wolfer and T, both of them already have two firstbasemen and wolfer didn't have a second baseman (still doesn't!) So I think I Davis is safe to make it around the turn and I go with 11.14.174 Jonathan Villar, 2nd as a source of speed. I loved him in 2016 as much as I despised him last year. He may swing his balsa wood toothpick into a slugging percentage below .400, but I figure he is good for 30 steals and one of maybe 6 players who could steal 50. It's a chance worth taking.

WTF Wolfer, taking Chris Davis. I couldn't believe my eyes! Okay, this has gone on too long, it's time someone put 12.3.179 Ian Desmond, 1st/OF out of his misery. I admit it, I don't like him. He has a poor track record, low OBP, poor slugging for any bat not a catcher, oh, but he may steal 20 bases as your first baseman. So what, that's a novelty. How is it that ESPN has him as the #76 player overall? The 23rd best outfielder, the thirteenth best at first. Hell, we had taken 20 first basemen by this point. Looking at NFBC average draft position, he's #113, the funny thing is, out of 368 reported drafts, the latest he was taken was..., wait for it... #179! At this point I am just going to bite my lip and pull the trigger. This year I will closely follow Chris Davis and B Belt to see how they compare because they are the two guys I could have gone with. My girlfriend, who is equal parts perplexed, confounded and amused with this exercise, asked me if Mr. Desmond would be sad hearing that I was disappointed that I had to settle for him. I told her that half of his teammates will not even be drafted and assured her that his tens of millions of guaranteed $$$ would soothe whatever embarrassment he may have suffered.

I haven't taken a pitcher in a long time. I have had my eye on Garrett Richards and would have drafted him had he fallen, but no. In the 12th round, wolfer took his fourth starter, I figure he wouldn't take number five, but T has only two, so he may taken one, I'll put my Sps at the top of the queue for round 13 and take an outfielder on the way back. I'm at my local draft when Tosh takes 13.14.206 Eddie Rosario, OF. I was surprised and asked him why he had not taken him in RIBC. "I have him in a different keeper league, I am trying to spread out/diversify." You know, I am a Twins fan and Eddie was my second choice to Jay Bruce back in round ten, wolf only has two OF and T has three. I've had a SP at the top of my automatic pick Q for nearly two hours when I decide to switch it up to Eddie. Sure enough, el fatador takes Mallix Smith and I snag Eddie. wolfer takes TWO OFs and T takes M Brantley and a starter but thankfully not 14.3.211 Kenta Maeda, SP. I'm really pleased with Maeda as my SP3, he is projected to have a nice WHIP and the Dodgers will let the wins flow into his column with great Feng Shui.
14mailedfoot
      ID: 531322718
      Sun, Mar 18, 2018, 08:44
6.06 Ozzie Albies, 2B, ATL
Budding star Albies plays his first full season in the bigs and I want to be in on the fun so I pull the trigger here figuring he won't be available at my next pick. Slashed .354/.456 in 57 games last year and, yes, I will have some more of that with 25-30 SB if you please. Most projections are not expecting him being quite that good but I am willing to take the chance. In retrospect, I maybe should have taken Chris Taylor who put up virtually the same line last year and gained some position flexibility but am happy with Ozzie.

7.11 Edwin Diaz, RP, SEA
Round 7 becomes closing time and I follow suit with Diaz who seems locked in as the Mariners guy with not much competition on the horizon. At my pick, eleven closers have already been taken and in these leagues I want to have at least one in hand leaving the draft.

15mailedfoot
      ID: 531322718
      Sun, Mar 18, 2018, 09:54
8.06 Gerrit Cole, SP, HOU
Feeling the need to add to my pitching staff, I go with Gerrit Cole who has ace potential but hasn't quite put it together the last couple of years. There are a number of pitchers available here who figure to be of similar caliber, but I like Cole's bounce back potential pitching for the Astros and I don't have him on any other fantasy teams.

9.11 Alex Wood, SP, LAD
This pick came down to Alex Wood or Adrian Beltre. Wood feels like a bargain at this draft slot based on last year's numbers and the fact that he pitches for the Dodgers. I would also really like to have Beltre to fill the CI position or as insurance in case Gallo doesn't pan out. Based on ADP I went with Wood thinking maybe Beltre would still be there next pick. If he wasn't I had Suarez as a backup selection.

10.06 Eugenio Suarez, 3B, CIN
As things develop, Zen takes Beltre and I go with Suarez. He is a seemingly underappreciated player at this point with a slash line of .367/.461 last year. Still happy with how my team is shaping up except I am starting to feel a little uneasy about my thin MI and the remaining options there.
16Species
      SuperDude
      ID: 07724916
      Sun, Mar 18, 2018, 15:35
9.10 Blake Treinen, RP, OAK
My biggest regret pick to date -- not because Treinen is that bad of a 2nd closer, but relative to the SP I probably should have secured that went in the next round or two. I probably could have waited and gotten a Morrow/Herrera/Melancon type and secured Alex Wood or Sonny Gray. Sigh.

I talked myself into Treinen due to his relative security in the job. I texted my A's buddy (partial season ticket holder) who gave his vote of confidence. It was a coin flip between him and Morrow -- but I felt Morrow will have a much shorter leash on the contending Cubs, given the strong setup men behind him.

Surprises/steals in Round 9 - Props to Fosten who stole Michael Conforto here. If the whispers of a swifter recovery are true, this is a great steal. The other huge steal was Seattle Zen with Adrian Beltre. OK, you may only get 130 games out of him, but they will be very strong ratios and decent counting stats. Great pick. Tanaka is due for a bounceback and is also a great pick here.

10.07 Delino Deshields, OF, TEX
I made up for my blunder in round 9 with this steal (pun intended) in round 10. After being names the leadoff man and reputedly given the green light to steal his ass off, Deshields boasted of his intention to steal 50 bases. Skeptical? Perhaps, but the kid did steal over 80 in a minor league season, so it is possible. Upside is Billy Hamilton with superior ratios. Floor is 30 SB probably. A bargain here.

Surprises/steals in round 10 - the 1b that went here - Bell, Smoak and Bour - all were great value. If I didn't need the steals here I would have grabbed one.

11.10 Trevor Bauer, SP, CLE
I suppose I should get a second SP. I had Bauer, Richards and Samardzija in my queue. Samardzija was the 'safest', but I talked myself into believing in the turnaround Bauer had in the second half of 2017. I love Cleveland's team: offense, defense and bullpen are all great, so if Cleveland's coaches can convince the famously odd Bauer to continue down the path of improvement from 2017, there is no doubt he has the repertoire to take a big leap forward in 2018.

Surprises/steals in Round 11 - Schwarber for sure. I probably would have taken Johnny Cueto if he were there - good pick. I too had my eye on Jonathan Villar and was waiting for the right time to take him. Deshields was significantly safer in my view so Villar slid down my queue, but he is a worthy gamble at this point.

12.07 Garrett Richards, SP, LAA
If Richards fails to post 140 innings this year, this pick will be a complete failure, as the turn between my 12th and 13th round picks decimated a long list of bargains I have been looking at.

That said, Richards is a potential ace in the hole for an improving Angels team. Richards succeeds when healthy and has looked great so far this spring. Ratios under 3.50 and 1.20 should be cake. All it takes is relative health and 150 innings.

Surprises/steals in Round 12 - Belt, Haniger, Martinez and Zimmer were all guys I liked at this point in the draft.
17Tosh
      Dude
      ID: 057721710
      Mon, Mar 19, 2018, 00:17
I got to pick first for slot selection. There are solid arguments about not getting 1.01, so that I can pick earlier in round 2. I call shenanigans on those arguments. Going first is cool. So I’m taking it.

1.01 ~~ Mike Trout, OF, ANA -
He’s been the best player the past 5 years. WIll probably be the best player the next 5 years. Not a hard choice.

2.16 ~~ Stephen Strasburg, SP, WAS -
I don’t normally take a SP early in these drafts. But picking on the turn is a little tricky, since I need to forecast 30 picks ahead to guess what might be available. There will be some good SP, but I’d rather have a top 5-6 guy as my ace ... as opposed to a top 10-12. So I’ll take Strasburg now, rather than Archer or Keuchel later.

3.01 ~~ Alex Bregman, SS/3B, HOU -
Lots of good names to choose from. I like Anthony Rendon a lot, but see Bregman as a comparable player with SS eligibility. I’ll give him a shot.

4.16 ~~ Craig Kimbrel, RP, BOS -
Another pick based on picking on the turn. I never take a closer early, and am happy taking a 2nd tier closer as my #1. But when is that closer run going to happen?? I’d hate to miss out on the good guys, and end up selecting a guy with less predictable job security. Kimbrel is pretty good.

5.01 ~~ Khris Davis, OF, OAK -
After taking two pitchers in the first four picks, I need some meat in the diet. This guy can hit some juicy meatballs. He’s the only player to hit 40+ HRs in each of the past two seasons. He’s not an asset for OBP, but I’ll adapt. I hope.

6.16 ~~ Jose Quintana, SP, CHC -
So the closer run I’d been waiting for didn’t happen. So do I take another closer here? Plenty of good ones to choose from. Or do I take the #4 SP for the Cubbies? He went at 6.09 in RIBC and 5.14 in AAA/Yahoo. Rotowire has him ranked as the best Cubbie starter, and #14 overall. He has no flaws to his game, and plays for a good team. I’m jumping on board.

7.01 ~~ Chris Taylor, 2B/OF, LAD -
I’m a huge Seattle Mariner fan, and go to a handful of games a season. But I can go to four AAA Tacoma Rainier games for the same price as one Mariner game. So I go to a lot more Tacoma Rainier games. And in 2014-16, I sat there watching some skinny no-power kid named Chris Taylor. He was a decent-enough AAA player, but nothing that indicated he was more than a MLB utility-guy at best. His time on the Mariners roster was a dismal failure. Not even his mother could have predicted him being picked at #97 in the 2018 RIBC draft.

But something happened when he got traded to the Dodgers. Maybe it’s Disneyland. Maybe it’s the palm trees. Maybe the Mariners hitting coaches at the time (Howard Johnson & Edgar Martinez) were just plain sucky. Maybe the balls were juiced. But whatever it was, this guy hit 21 HRs in 2017! And now in 2018, he’s the lead-off hitter for a pretty darned good Dodger lineup. He’s not one of the top OFers, but he is one of the top 2Bs. So as long as I can utilize him that way, he’s a good add for my roster.

8.16 ~~ Yasiel Puig, OF, LAD -
Not sure what I’ve had against this guy in the past. I’ve never owned him on any fantasy team ever. The dictionary defines ‘loose cannon’ as “an unpredictable or uncontrolled person who is likely to cause unintentional damage.” His athletic potential has never been questioned, but he carries around that extra baggage ... deserved or not. I read a lot about him before this pick. There’s not much negativity going into 2018. Maybe this is the year that he’s a MVP candidate.

9.01 ~~ Kyle Hendricks, SP, CHC -
This is the point in most RIBC drafts where teams are adding their 2nd SP. I need to address holes at 1B and 3B, but am going to add Hendricks as my SP3 instead. The CI that I like are a bit of a reach here at pick #129. Hopefully a few of them are available for my next picks. Hendricks isn’t Jamie Moyer slow ... but doesn’t throw the ball very fast. So he doesn’t have the K/9 ratios that I drool over. But he’ll be a solid contributor in Ws, ERA, and WHIP.

10.16 ~~ Ryan Zimmerman, 1B, WAS
After a long career, it appeared that age and injuries were taking their toll on Zimmerman. But 2017 was a serious bounce-back and a career-best. I’m not expecting those numbers in 2018, but even with a decline ... batting clean-up for a loaded Washington lineup should provide valuable contributions to 4 of the hitting categories.

18gramazins
      ID: 13238511
      Mon, Mar 19, 2018, 10:32
1.04 Nolan Arenado, 3B, COL
Going into the draft pick selection process I wanted a top 4 pick. I had the top 4 guys as Trout, Altuve, Arenado and Goldschmidt and wanted to anchor my team with one of them. Due to position and scarcity of SB I was hoping it would be Altuve that fell, but I'm perfectly satisfied with the 4 categories that Arenado brings at an elite level. I always tend to build my teams around Slugging and OBP in RIBC and try and play catchup in other categories later.
Other Players Considered: Paul Goldschmidt

2.13 Brian Dozier, 2B, MIN
I don't know that it would be fair to say I regret this pick, but I did struggle with it. Initially, I was going to go SP, SP in rounds 2 and 3, but I was having a difficult time committing. With Dozier I get another good OBP SLG player at a position where that is pretty rare.
Other Players Considered: Cody Bellinger, Steven Strasburg, Robbie Ray, Jacob Degrom

3.04 Rhys Hoskins, 1B, PHI
In retrospect, I definitely should have gone pitching here, but with Strasburg no longer on the table, I was seduced by the raw power Hoskins showed in his limited time last year. He should help in 4 categories and after my first 3 picks I'm pretty well set in the hitting categories moving forward. I am starting to get nervous about SBs and Ks at this point and figure I need to start addressing one of those categories soon. Targetting Dee Gordon next round, but thought it was too early to already double up on a position.
Other Players Considered: Dee Gordon, Jacob Degrom, Robbie Ray

4.13 DJ Lemahieu, 2b, COL
Complete panic pick. DJ is good in batting average leagues, but while his OBP is very good it doesn't differentiate him enough to justify doubling up on the position this early. I was at lunch when my turn came up and Robbie Ray had just been taken from my queue. I didn't want to hold up the draft after holding up the start so I chose blindly and will regret it for the next few picks.
Others Consdered: None

5.04 Byron Buxton, OF, MIN
Shaking off the debacle of pick 4.13 I decided to go for a player with upside and steals. I didn't feel like I could catch up in Ks at this point so I'm going to wait on pitching. I needed to get steals and was between Buxton and Moncada. If I grabbed Moncada he'd be locked in at my utility and I wasn't willing to go there so early in the draft. Buxton gives me a legit shot at 30 steals and he started to show promise with the bat last year. If he realizes his potential this year, he could be a top 16 pick next year. He's still only 24, so just coming into his prime and last year finally got his OBP north of .300 while slugging over .400. Hoping for a speed power combo while not sacrificing too much OBP.

19Species
      SuperDude
      ID: 07724916
      Mon, Mar 19, 2018, 14:18
13.10 Ian Kinsler, 2B, LAA
Just kind of starting to fill in at this point. The options for filling my last MI spot were dwindling faster than Lindsay Lohan's career. I would have nabbed Jason Kipnis or Orlando Arcia had they fallen -- I was very disappointed by that, particularly Arcia for a few extra steals. In general, I don't like grabbing aged veterans as there is usually little upside. But at some point you have to take the best available and Kinsler is consistent. He will be leading off for LAA in an improving lineup, so 85/90 runs with OK ratios for a 3rd MI, plus double digit SB that I never realized would be there. Honestly I think Kinsler was the end of a MI tier.....

Surprises/steals in Round 13 - most of this round were solid values. Kipnis and Arcia are strong, I liked Gardner and Morrison here as well.

14.07 Josh Reddick, OF, HOU
Another deferral of pitching in order to fill out my OF. Reddick represented another safe veteran who has no upside but is unlikely to hurt me in ratios. While he may sit against some tough lefties, Reddick's position on RF for the Champion Astros is solid. I am not expecting 2017's .847 OPS - in fact something right in the middle of his 2016 and 2017 would do just nicely here.

Surprises/steals in round 14 - Loved both Stroman and Chatwood. Chatwood was a big sleeper of mine but up until now I could not justify picking him. Gausman is in year 3 of being tabbed as a breakout, and I think he does shine more brightly in 2018 - great pick.

15.10 Matt Chapman, 3B, OAK
Hey! Back to upside guys! There are several things to like about Chapman here. Chief amongst them is his considerable power. Sure, he was outshined by his rookie teammate Matt Olson, but Chapman was no slouch with 14 bombs in half the season. Chapman is a gold glove caliber 3b, so barring a complete collapse in his batting average (and batting eye with solid walks) he will be in there pretty much every day. In fact, any improvement in reducing his strikeouts/improving his BABIP could lead in a 20 point increase in BA and resulting OBP, which would make him an even more solid value here. The cornerman were dwindling fast.....

Surprises/steals in round 15 - I would have taken Lamet if WG didn't. One of Fosten or gramazins will win the LAA closer derby - was fun to see Bedrosian and Parker go back-to-back. Leone was also a worthy gamble here.
20JeffG
      ID: 5425712
      Mon, Mar 19, 2018, 17:47
11.07 Manuel Margot OF SD
Finally picked up my second outfielder, at this point close to 40 outfielders have been drafted and I only have one. Looking for a player who can add 20-some steals to my roster and also add 75 to the runs category, with the least damage done to the ratios and RBI. I should be able to get this production from Margot, who is projected to lead off for the Padres. Last year he even produced a little bit of unexpected HR output (13) in a pitchers ballpark, and you would not see me complain if he can replicate that number and slug a bit. If Margot was gone, had Fowler in my radar. By going with SLG/RBI heavy hitters early (already have 3 first baseman), I can grab players like this SB/R heavy to build good composite team numbers.

12.10 Gio Gonzalez SP WAS
As of this writing, all the RIBC drafts are in rd15 or later and Gonzalez was only drafted in one other league, and available in the other two. So, maybe I could have waited and took a different SP here (had Samardja, Maeda, and Chase Anderson also queued). Gio has a projected K/9 of just over 8. Sure it is trending downward from year to year, but he is in a division with the Marlins and Braves so that has to be good for double digit wins. Gio will have a high 3 ERA but a servicable WHIP for a mid round SP.

13.07 Cesar Hernandez 2B PHI
I feel this is a solid MI pickup in the middle of our draft. Still had to fill my 2B slot, the longer I wait, the slimmer the pickins. Another lead off hitter who will be good for a couple dozen steals, and 75+ runs scored, but Cesar takes a bunch of walks. Will actually be a positive for my OBP.

14.10 Chase Anderson SP MIL
I looked at Chase and had him queued two rounds ago, and will grab him here before the SP start to fall from my rankings. Good K rate, but a bit concerned about what he may do to the ratios.

15.07 Aaron Hicks OF NYY
I got at least one LOL for this pick, I'm sure the some if not all of the rest of you who are not Facebook Messenger friends probably did the same. May be a bit of a homer pick (homer like in my home team, not the one that goes over the outfield wall), but Hicks had a great rebound season last year, once he started seeing regular starting playing time, his stats reflected it. Starting time he backed into at first thanks to the downfall of the Yankees high priced center fielder **Name witheld because Undrafted in our league**, but his scouting report always said he hits better when playing consistently. Aaron has a little of everything - A little power, a ton of speed (but that may not reflect in steals) should have a very good OBP, and hopefully in this circular lineup he is in, decent counting numbers. Will expect that Aaron's PT may be impacted by a very crowded outfield, like when Judge/Stanton get time in LF when Sanchez is going to DH and not catch, which sometimes should mover Gardy over to CF, plus when the **Name witheld because Undrafted in our league** center fielder on the roster gets his turn to play.
21mailedfoot
      ID: 542431719
      Tue, Mar 20, 2018, 21:31
11.11 Dexter Fowler, OF, STL
I was originally planning to address MI with this pick, but after looking over various options, Dexter Fowler began to stand out as the best pick in my mind. Although he doesn't have the ADP of some other OFs still on the board, he has slashed .366/.428 over his major league career making him highly effective in OBP leagues. The only real negative is his durability as he has missed time with various injuries. He becomes my third outfielder.

12.06 Marcus Semien, SS, OAK
Finally addressing MI, I take Semien who figures to be steadily productive in all categories if not outstanding in any. Still only 27 and with an increasing BB% over each of the last 3 years, I am hopeful he can take another step forward this year.

13.11 Jameson Taillon, SP, PIT
Decided to flesh out my SP ranks with Taillon, who most projection systems like and comes at a small discount with this draft pick. Hoping he can be a pleasant surprise.
23Seattle Zen
      ID: 301361318
      Wed, Mar 21, 2018, 15:37
It was a coin flip between Maeda and Chase Anderson, nice pick Jeff G. I also had my eyes on Jacob Faria, I thought I could get him a few rounds later, guess not. The top RP on my list was Blake Parker. I figure he will be the Angels closer all season long, he has the stuff. I am finding that I naturally gravitate towards my keepers in my ottoneu league and place Blake Snell on the top of my list, but he gets snagged. Not sure of what to do, I start eying 15.14.238 Jon Gray, SP . He is popular wherever I look. He projects to have a great K/9 but average ERA/WHIP. The Rockies are good and he should get some wins.

I read some reports that 16.3.243 Luke Gregerson, RP has been throwing in Spring Training and may actually get some innings in before Opening Day. The Cards signed him and anointed him the Closer, simply because he has a sore wing in the spring doesn’t mean he has lost the job for the season. He didn’t have great results last year but his peripherals were still pretty stellar, so he should regress back to his mean, which is pretty good. Dominick Leone doesn’t cause me any real concern.

I’m doing pretty well so far. I have one 1st baseman, two 2nd, two third, a SS, four outfielders, four SPs and 2 RP. I can go any direction at this junction. I start thinking MOAR SLUGGING because I am part gorilla and I dig the long ball. Last season my squad looked like the eating disorder ward at a public hospital and I can’t bare to go through that again. I want Jonathan Villar to feel very much out of place. I want him running for his life. 17.14.270 Kendrys Morales, DH might be the last player who weighs more than his draft pick number (unless Prince Fielder is nominated as Mr. Irrevelant :)) His projections are not very good, to be honest, so I am hoping that he outperforms them. I like the Blue Jay lineup, I expect him to do quite well in the RBI category. While waiting for him, there really wasn’t much taken off the board that I was coveting. Who knows where Greg Holland ends up or if he actually contributes, I’m not going to take that risk. But he could also be the highlight of the round. I think Betances will be productive. But Chase Headley, Brandon Drury, Jose somebody on SD, no, I don’t think so.

Waiting to go around the turn, I now look at my research and think I may have made a mistake. I should have taken 18.3.275 Lucas Duda, 1st here. He has much better projections than Morales and he is a first baseman, an actual need of mine. He signed with KC and while they suck, he should bat third or fourth. He has actually had a better offensive career than Eric Hosmer. He had two outstanding years in 2014 & 15, stunk in 2016 and was putting up a ridiculous .347/.532 line for the Mets last year before being traded to the Rays where he stunk. I think playing in KC will suit him well and my lone concern is that the Royals trade him during the year, selling high, and he struggles on his new squad like he did last year.

So as I await my pick around the turn, I assure myself that I am fine, that wolfer is missing a second baseman, has taken no relievers or a catcher and already has three first basemen. Likewise, Thumqer has no third basemen and two first basemen. Sure enough, I watch as wolfer take a 2nd, T take a third, then a SP and WHAT? Wolfer, who took Chris Davis right from the top of my list Friday takes a fourth first baseman, but thankfully it was the pile of piss and vinegar Ryon Healy, whose parents couldn’t spell. El fatador makes the case that perhaps he really does need all four hours to make his pick because he autopicks sub 700 OPS Albert Pujols to clog up his UTIL slot like a hairball in your bathtub drain.

There were many of my targets taken after this – Teheran, Porcello, Roark, Maybin, Bradley Jr., Giolito, but the gorilla in me sees a fellow ape in 19.14.302 Mike Zunino, Cwho starting crushing after a demotion to Tacoma last year. I realize that I am really counting on Blackmon, Lindor, Lamb and Beltre to carry my OBP because I have gone heavy on the SLG down here.

Round twenty, time to gamble. I read that 20.3.307 Danny Salazar, SP has started “long tossing” at ST camp. I have a tiny, little remnant of a confirmation bias regarding minor injuries and the quality staring pitchers coming back from them in the spring. Can’t remember the year, might have been just a few years into the first GW Bush administration, but I do remember it was Ted Lilly. He said he would start the season on the DL with a minor arm issue but would be back by May. No one wanted to draft him. I took the chance and it paid off handsomely. I have probably taken other similar risks that did not pan out but because they were done late in drafts, I easily forget them. Come on Danny Boy, be like Teddy!
24Species
      SuperDude
      ID: 07724916
      Wed, Mar 21, 2018, 18:54
16.07 Nate Jones, RP, CHW
Joakim Soria has been declining for a while now, while Jones has seemingly been the 'closer of the future' for the White Sox for 3 years. The problem is he keeps getting hurt. It's kind of amusing that I took Jones when Soria was available....but I also took him over anointed MIA closer Brad Ziegler, so what do I know?

Surprises/steals in Round 16 - I would have given serious consideration to Cole Hamels here. I wanted Betances and Robertson as well. I might regret skipping them for a shot at 15 saves. :(

17.10 Carlos Gonzalez, OF, COL
At this point the only hitter spot I haven't filled is Utility. CarGo has declined precipitously since the early 2010s and is a shadow of his former self. He is gawd awful vs. LHP and his home/road splits are amongst the worst in baseball. So why pick him? Because I can platoon his a$$ for elite ratios at home and vs. select RHP on the road......and then combine him with either other backups or streams to form a valuable Utility position for my team.

My hope is, as the longest tenured Rockie and a presumed fan favorite that they will give him all the AB he can get vs RHP. If that is the case, he is worth the pick here.

Surprises/steals in Round 17 - Pirela is a worthwhile gamble at this point. Kepler is due to improve while I have a hard time understanding why anyone thinks Chase Headley is worth a spot on your roster.

18.07 Chad Green, RP, NYY
This just in......I am testing out the heavy reliever route this year to see how I do. My plan was to go very heavy hitting early....get a few SP as a base and surround them with high strikeout, low ratio relievers and hope to get 13+ points in ERA/WHIP while eeking out 6 or 7 points in W and K.

At this point in the draft, the available starters all have question marks. Injury, inconsistent performance, etc. Take Rick Porcello, taken a few picks later. He has a career 4.25 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. If you drafted him in 2016 and got his 3.15 ERA and 1.01 WHIP, hoorah for you. I suppose you can draft him this late, hope, and cut bait if he sucks.......but why not take a shot at a guy who whiffed 103 men in 69 innings and had elite ratios?

If you add up what Nate Jones and Chad Green should do this year, you get a vastly superior pitcher to the Pomeranz/Wheeler/Matz/Harvey/Porcello/Straily/Roark/Happ types that are going at this point. The risk of killing your ratios for pedestrian K rates and a few wins just doesn't seem worth it.

19.10 Asdrubal Cabrera, 2B/SS/3B, NYM
How this guy fell this far when stiffs like Panik, Peraza (always falls on his face) and Drury (holding the fort for Andujar or Torres) went ahead of him is beyond me. Even if his last 2 years of .810 and .785 OPS' are flukes, he is a legit everyday player......and his multi-position eligibility is HUGE in this league with such a short bench.

Considering CarGo is my utility, basically Cabrera can be a backup at EVERY position in my lineup except for C and 1b (and if I succeeded in a 2nd CI that was a 1b, he would have technically covered that too). Considering the roster space demands of my reliever strategy, this flexibility is very, very valuable to my team.

I would have taken Chris Devenski if I didn't feel the need to jump on Cabrera. Honestly I should have gotten him in round 18.

20.07 Brad Peacock, SP/RP, HOU
More relievers, although Peacock will probably get 7 to 10 starts this year, which will work as a SP hedge for my team. But what I really want him for is relief pitching for a lot of IP, K and strong ratios. On a strong Astros team, he can also pick up some vulture wins.

An added bonus is his eligibility as a SP! I could conceivably have 9 relievers in my lineup with him listed as a SP. That is unlikely to happen due to roster space restrictions, but it is fun to consider!

Surprises/steals in Round 20 - I would have taken Devenski if he was available. Amed Rosario is a nice pick here, and Ketel Marte is rising up sleeper lists and could be a value this late.
25mailedfoot
      ID: 531322718
      Wed, Mar 21, 2018, 20:49
14.06 Jorge Polanco, SS, MIN
Polanco was going to be my third MI and I selected him in large part based on his blazing hot finish last year. Most projections have him as a solid SS pick after all the top dogs are gone, with the ability to contribute across the board. Within 24 hours however this became a wasted pick when he was suspended 80 games for PED usage.

15.11 Michael Wacha, SP, STL
Wacha becomes my fifth starter; hoping he can regain his form of 3-4 years ago. With a little luck, he may be able to get there. Also considered Jon Gray who was the next SP selected, but already have him in another league and am a little leery about Coors.

16.06 Andrelton Simmons, SS, LAA
After learning about Polanco's suspension, I took Simmons as my second third MI. I'll be happy if he can match his .331/.421/19 SB from last year. Over the course of the season, losing my 14th round pick is probably not that important, but when you're in the middle of the draft it is frustrating. Nate Jones was on my radar before I found out about Polanco and to see him taken with the next pick after Simmons was the topping on the cake.

17.11 Max Kepler, OF, MIN
I still need a 4th OF, catcher, and utility bat and looking at the options, I'm thinking that the OF ranks are getting thin. Kepler is still a young guy who can handle RH pitching fairly well (.343/.484 last year), and I am hoping he can take another step forward in his development. If not, he can be used as a platoon bat. Also considered Jackie Bradley, Jr. but didn't want three OF from the same team.

18.06 Maikel Franco, 3B, PHI
Franco has floundered the last two years but is still only 25 and will be hitting in an improved lineup this year. He is also trying to make adjustments to his swing. Most projection systems have him as one of the best hitters still available so I grab him here for CI/UTIL depth.
26JeffG
      ID: 5425712
      Thu, Mar 22, 2018, 11:35
16.10 Kole Calhoun OF LAA
Time to start filling my holes. In need of another outfielder and Kole is the best of the rest. Not going to help the slugging, or steals at all, and he should be a little light but not horrible on the OBP, but is an every day player who should likely yield 70+ in R and RBI

17.07 Brandon Crawford SS SFO
Need a full time MI for my lineup and I am starting to sense the drop off in the available players after Crawford. About a third of the teams still need to plug in their starting MI, so can wait no longer. There may be a pick or two later on that will be a steal, but want to minimize the risk as there are also a ton of stats drainers in the mix.


18.10 Welington Castillo C CWS
What a horrible catcher class we have this year. We have our top of the draft catchers tier long gone (Sanchez, Posey). The rest for the most part in my opinion are part of one long tier, and everyone will have their favorites. Five from this group are now gone, and I have been keeping my eye on the catchers gone and left to see when to make my move. I actually thought about treating this position like a kicker in fantasy football and waiting until the final round, but i feel like of those left, Castillo and two others, have a little better value then the ones who will be around, and with 9 teams still needing their catcher thought it was a good time to pull the trigger. None of these guys are very good for steals and OBP, but I feel like at .450 Castillo slugs significantly better than the field which maybe will also translate to 10-20 more RBI and 10 or so more runs than the rest.

19.07 Jackie Bradley Jr OF Bos
Waiting a few more rounds on pitching to grab another bat as the ranks are thinning out. With a full complement now of OF and UT, on days everyone plays Bradley will be on my bench, but with off days, rest days, and so on, my first bench player drafted will see alot of fantasy playing time, so I wanted someone who will likely fill in positively. Bradley is an unspectacular but servicable fantasy option who maybe has a potential for upside. Rather get someone now, than someone with more downside later.

20.10 AJ Ramos RP NYM
I should start looking for my SP5, but no one jumps out at me, and whoever/whenever I draft one, he'll be the first one dropped if someone better undrafted catches my attention with a hot start, so rather risk a later pick for someone with more likelihood of not sticking on my roster. I luckily have my two reliable closers (Davis, Colome in rd 7 and 9) and if healthy they should get me my 70-90 saves, so purely doing this the best handcuff (for someone else's closer) left on the board. I expect Famiglia to be solid for the Mets, and never root for injuries, but he has seen time on the DL every year and is suffering from a bit of dead arm issues, and it is only spring. Figure Ramos may be in the mix early for sharing the load, is waiting in the wings if needed, and will strike out around 10.5 per 9, although not offering great assistance to the ratios.

21.07 Carl Edwards Jr RP CHC
Many of the ELITE middle relievers who are likely not in the saves mix but grabbed for the K/RATIOS potential (Dellin, Bear-Claw, D-Rob, Reed, Minter) started falling off the boards in round 17, and those are all solid reliable picks. I am usually right in the mix for grabbing these types of players for that payoff. However, now I feel like now each MLB team is working towards having a hard throwing middle of the pen guy to fit this role. We are somewhere in the transition to every team having their own Andrew Miller. (not that Edwards is in the same class). In my last few RIBC years, there were always players in the free agent pool who I'd pick up for that purpose, until the next hot one catches my eyes. So for those reasons, I decided to not go for the elite MR, and dedicated the last 4 rounds to filling out my offense. But now as most of my other team needs have now been filled, I decided to take my flyer on Edwards. He does not have the control that the higher drafted MR do, but his K rate is right there.
27Seattle Zen
      ID: 301361318
      Fri, Mar 23, 2018, 14:26
I was surprised to see that Amed Rosario was still on the board. Top prospect, middle infield, New York market, usually those three items send one’s stock through the roof. Nice pick, Jordan. Brad Boxberger is now atop my queue. He finished last year strong and did save 41 games for the Rays recently. I think he has a decent chance of having the most saves for the Dbacks this season. King Felix at pick #325. He’s got to be a top ten pick in a “crazy fan section” fantasy league. King’s Court is still a thing at Safeco Field. Is he the type of player who will figure out how to get through a lineup four times without any real heat? I would rather take my chances with Patrick Corbin, but no real harm in trying. I suspect the King will appear on three or four of our rosters this season. I’m still disappointed that Joe Mauer is earning over $25 million dollars on the Twins and not the Yankees this season, thankfully his last.

I went with 21.14.334 Sean Newcomb, SP simply because of a surprisingly positive projection from the usually dour Baseball Prospectus. My system of valuing pitchers has slowly evolved. Where as before I valued WHIP above all, that would lead to starters like Tanner Roark and Kyle Hendricks who outperformed their peripherals with a low strikeout rate. The Saber community has convinced me that K% is a great way to gauge effectiveness and seek potential breakouts like Robbie Ray last season. Maybe Newcomb will string together a few quality starts, gain some confidence and thrive. Quality starters come out of nowhere every year, bargain bin shopping is fun this time of year.

With Boxberger gone, I have 22.03.339 Ryan Madson, RP as the best remaining vulture. Not a big fan of Sean Doolittle. Nationals are preseason favorites in the NL East, they won’t stick with a poor closer for long. Madson has had great results. A 1.99 FIP last year. Over 10K/9. Over 50% GB rate. Five wins. I can’t be sure that he would get the job if Doolittle lives up to his name, but he will probably remain on my squad regardless.

There are still many players I like taken in these rounds. Players with talent but maybe without a job – Joc Pederson, Y Tomas, Willie Calhoun, Robles. Players looking to bounce back – Lucroy, Estrada, McCarthy. Britton. I like Kirby Yates, Ervin Santana should provide at least 2/3 of a decent season. Jake Odorizzi is the Twins Opening Day starter, that should be good for an early win.

But why no love for 23.14.366 Jed Lowrie, 2nd? He had a remarkable season last year that, obviously, few people noticed.

Player A .280/.338 (7.6% bb rate)/.453 (.172 ISO) wOBP .334 77 runs/97 RBI/1 steal
Player B .277/.360 (11.3% bb rate)/.448 (.171 ISO) wOBP . 347 86 runs/69 RBI/0.

Identical number of plate appearances. Both of them slated to it third in their AL West lineups. One is 35 and a half, the other turns 34 next month.

Player A is Robinson Cano and B is Jed. My bold prediction this pre-season is that Jed Lowrie outperforms Cano in 2018. They played to a virtual tie last year, all it would take is a Cano injury or age-related decline to accelerate and a healthy Jed to make that happen. Not too outlandish. I’ve got two volatile assets in Odor and Villar at second, boring production from Lowrie is a decent back up plan.

My last real target is 24.3.371 Denard Span, OF. Have always liked him since the Twins made him their first round pick 16 years ago. He is what we all should strive for in a fifth outfielder, specializes in one category while not hurting the other four. Leading off for the Rays, I imagine that even at his poor success rate, DSpan will steal a dozen bases again. With so few steals across baseball, those are quite valuable.

I like Steckenrider, I think he’ll end up with over 10 saves. Matt Bush could end up closer. Anthony Swarzak had great numbers last year. It will be interesting to see which of Barnes/Grandal end up contributing. Pat Neshek has a great delivery, but I think there is a severe bias against sidearm/submariners getting the closer gig. Mark Trumbo could be this year’s Ryan Zimmerman. Wilmer Flores is a nice backup, I’ve picked him up off the waiver wire after an injury in my line up and the man has been stellar over stretches.
28Tosh
      Dude
      ID: 057721710
      Fri, Mar 23, 2018, 15:37
I might be able to get to rounds 11-24 later. But I have to speak about 25.01.

25.01. Ichiro Suzuki, OF, SEA
One of my all time favorite Mariners returning home for 2018. I spent a lot of summer evenings sitting in RF a few years back. I drafted him now for two reasons.
1. Drafting Ichiro always gives me the same rush as eating maple bacon. Just a little bit of awesomeness.

2. I've got opening night tickets in area 51 (RF). Yeah. I know he's playing LF now. But he's not that far away.

He may only be on my team one or two days. But he'll be in my starting lineup next Thursday dagnabbit.
29JeffG
      ID: 0151257
      Fri, Mar 23, 2018, 19:51
22.10 Ervin Santana SP MIN
DOH. I usually do a better job vetting my draftees before turning on my auto-pick, but Ervin slipped through. He is dealing with a swelling issue with his middle finger that will sideline him until May. Now it makes sense why I got him so cheap.. . So i'm getting about 70% of the Santana I thought I drafted. My thought was my SP5 would be someone who can be the first to go back to the free agent pool if something better shows up. Since it is likely going to sideline Santana 6 weeks, he can take up a roster spot of mine, that is as long as I do not have other injuries on my team. I can deal. When Ervin does come back, this could be a nice value for a starting pitcher in round 22. I guess before the end of th draft I'll need an SP5-A

23.07 Austin Jackson OF SF
First time it happened since Round 1. What you ask? First time the player on the top of my queue was grabbed within 2 picks of mine once I turned autopic on. I had Chisenhall queued up, but Jackson is fine in round 23 for my final outfielder. He's not very good for any particular category, but not very bad either. When I play him as a fill in, he'll do fine, and like any 23rd rounder, the leash is short if someone else available catches my eye.

24.10 Anthony Swarzak RP NYM
Still lots of value MR available here, 7 rounds later than they started going off the board, and as I said in a prior rationale, why I decided on waiting. I had queued up Kahnle, Neshik, Swarzak, and one other (undrafted) for this pick, and Swarzak was on top when the pick came up. All to me are on my board for the K rate, and ratios in mind. Added bonus is I now have both potential Met closer handcuffs should something happen to their incumbent, for whatever that is worth.

25.07 Carsten Charles Sabathia SP NYY
First, proud of my combined 7 minutes and 56 seconds of clock useage all draft. That is an average of 19 seconds per pick, or about the time it would take you to sing the happy birthday song from start to finish (you are singing it now, aren't you?). Actually, I used most of it 7:05 on one pick, then 0:51 on another, the rest of my 23 selections were autopicks. So glad that DraftTime has this option, it beats hitting the refresh button or having to check back often. Basically I drafted a pretty good team (I think) using everyone else's clock to do my thinking... Speaking of clock. BIG PROPS to Seattle Zen who put me and my 19 second per pick to shame as his combined draft clock reads 00:00:00, an average of ZERO SECONDS per pick.

That being said, I know there are some who may have been frustrated with the stalls, but I am real happy with the draft pace and will not clamor for a faster clock or penalties on the repeat offenders. I had my spread sheets and rankings done in the weeks during pre-draft, and I think 2 1/2 rounds per day gives me ample time to get the next day's plan in order, and vet everyone for injuries, and the pace of 45 minutes or so per pick gives me time during the day to alter my strategy or queues if I need to react to the direction of the draft. If everyone else were quicker, my clock would have seen some action. Maybe Zen's too.

So on to 25.07 CC SP NYY....
With only 4 active SP on my roster, don't want to fall behind in innings, it is tough to make up with quality in the last few weeks of the season. So with not many SP options available I can really get behind, they all have ratio damage concerns, will pick my guy CC who I can pick and choose when I'll use him. Something like - Not in Fenway, not against Cleveland or Houston. Early on will likely not go longer than 6 innings so maybe his lineup can set him up for a few wins, and then let the bullpen hold it. Like any other late pick, has a short leash and will go back if there is something shiny in the free agent pool that catches my eye.
30Seattle Zen
      ID: 301361318
      Sat, Mar 24, 2018, 00:28
Everyone should know by now, if you have read this far, is that in RIBC I have drafted Hisashi Iwakuma every year he has been in Seattle.

2012 - 24th round #380
2013 - 19th round #288
2014 - 10th round #156
2015 - 9th round #138
2016 - 11th round #162
2017 - 23rd round #353

And I would have taken him this year at #398 but he is not in the database. So we signed him as a bench coach. Kuma and I are like brothers now, inseparable. We finish each other sentences, though reading a transcript of our conversations can be weird as he finishes my sentences in Japanese and I just speak over him in English because I don’t know what the hell he is saying half the time.

For instance, he and I spoke the other day about the new show premiering on ABC on Tuesday that mirrors my life, Separating Together. The story about a married couple with children who decide to split up but still live together. My soon-to-be-ex-wife and I have been doing that for 9 or 10 months. Yeah, it’s a barrel of laughs, I explain to Hisashi. When you start out and you are all polite and accommodating, then you start spending your weekends with your girlfriend and she’s not all that enthusiastic about the whole “accommodating” thing anymore. Remember those exciting Friday nights you two would spend on the couch watching Dateline NBC then 20/20 about a$$hole husbands who kill their wives and implicate themselves via texts to their mistress? Yeah, those add a whole new level of uncomfortableness to this situation.

I ask Iwakumasan some questions about Japanese culture. “How are women to ever be treated as equal in a culture that has an entire different vocabulary and method of speaking for each sex?” He says that a lot has changed in the past 50 years. Well, hell, it should have, I mean, take for instance Akira Kurosawa’s High and Low where there is this scene where Toshiro Mifune comes home from a day at work in the office, takes off his coat and tie and drops them on the floor where his wife is on all fours, head down, to take them and put them away. WTF!? Which country will first elect a female President? It’s an outrage that neither have. We both love Kurosawa, but I love Ozu much more than he does.

Iwakuma tells me that he is rather appalled at how little public infrastructure we have in the US, Seattle in particular. He regales me with tales of taking the Shikansen between the big cities at 300 KMP without having to go through airport security. Or taking a train from Tokyo right up to the lodge at a ski resort. “That would be perfect for Seattle and the resorts up at Snoqualmie Pass.” He is absolutely right. I pitch my Vancouver/Seattle/Victoria high speed rail/bridge/tunnels superloop dream. These cities are actually rather close to each other physically, but water and a border make the travel difficult and slow. Catch a train in Victoria and be in downtown Seattle in less than an hour? When the planet sends the highs in LA to 125 in the summer, 80 degrees in Victoria will be appealing.

Kuma assures me that 25.14.398 Mike Leake, SP will make a decent spot starter. He won his first three starts for the Mariners. If he gives the SZ three wins, I will be happy.
31Tosh
      Dude
      ID: 057721710
      Sat, Mar 24, 2018, 01:12
Geez. All these years I have kept my Kuma bobblehead and SZ bobblehead in separate rooms. And all this time ... They've wanted to be spooning together in the man cave. I'll have to remedy that.
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