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0 Subject: AAA-Yahoo Rationales 11-15

Posted by: Toral - [9541311] Sun, Mar 17, 2019, 22:39


This thread is for AAA-Yahoo draft rationales from rounds 11-15.

Please do not mention undrafted players.
1Uptown Bombers
      ID: 38261518
      Sun, Mar 17, 2019, 23:22
11.08 Kyle Schwarber, OF, CHC

Schwarber fits my team needs pretty well. He fills my 2nd OF slot while helping the ratio categories. Hitting in a good lineup means I feel safe on the counting stats being at least 65, which potential for mid 70s or more depending on playing time. He is the top batter from my list left behind last round, so I am happy about that. I’ve really hated seeing Jose Alvarado being available the last few rounds. It has me rethinking round 9.

12.09 Ketel Marte, 2B/SS, ARI

I didn’t love what I saw when I looked at the remaining MI selections. My rankings had Marte and Semien a notch above others. Not wanting to risk losing both and then having to settle, I decide to take Marte. Sure enough Semien was drafted just a handful of picks later and then several more MI gone before my round 14 pick. I like that Marte is eligible at both MI spots and that he’ll contribute around 10 steals. He won’t kill my ratios and give me useful counting stats. That sounds like a good MI #3. I think he’s safe enough to be a starter in our format and now I can still hope to find lightning in a bottle with MI #4 later in the draft or during the season.

13.08 Max Kepler, OF, MIN

I have Kepler as a 70-75 R/RBI, 5-10 STLs, with OPS upside. He’s been near the top of my OF list for a few rounds. I was also looking at Domingo Santana but that option disappeared. Also looked at Bauers, but I was a little worried about his playing time. I would have been happy with either but took Kepler instead because Carlos Santana is going to have an MVP like season and steal playing time away from Bauers….or at least I hope so. The rankings I am using have Kepler as OF #36, #43, and #46. All of those present some value based on when I drafted him yet I can’t help but feel like I’d rather have Santana (Domingo, I mean).

14.09 Joey Lucchesi, SP, SD

Back in round 10, I mentioned choosing Happ over UNDRAFTED. Welcome to my team UNDRAFTTED! Perhaps I could have waited longer, but once a few other popular pitching sleepers were drafted, I thought the time was right. As my 3rd SP and 14th round pick, Lucchesi offers a lot of value. The stats guys can tell you all about K/9, BB/9 and xFIP better than I can. I’ll just take their word for it.

15.08 Matt Barnes RP, BOS

Matt Barnes owned a rate of 14 K/9 last year. The projections I am using for this year say 69 IP, 90K’s, 3.36 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. I think that is useful enough in this format to be a valuable MR in round 15. Sure, Betances (taken at pick 186 overall) is better and more proven, but almost 50 picks later I’m getting something close. That’s not a knock on the Betances pick; he offers tremendous value in RIBC when paired with a SP. But I’ve come this far in my rationale and I haven’t even added anything about Barnes’s potential for SV’s. Does he become closer? I don’t know. His peripherals support the idea and the opportunity is there. I can live with the pick if he merely helps K’s and ratios, but when I add the possibility of him being the closer for the whole year or part of it, well then, to me this was an obvious pick.
2Nerfherders
      ID: 33543714
      Mon, Mar 18, 2019, 13:41
11.05 Paul DeJong, SS STL
I wanted an MI on this turn but several of my targets disappeared (Moncada, Rosario). My consolation prize is DeJong, who has more power than many of the MI alternatives. He will put up great SLG, and decent counting stats. Unfortunately, little in SB department, so that's going to have to be addressed later (imminently).

12.12 Billy Hamilton, OF KC
I knew I would have to address SB eventually. I usually like to spread out the SB's among a half-dozen players, but for whatever reason that just wasn't working out. I needed that SB guy. I wanted Mallex Smith but he went earlier. I waited on Hamilton as long as I thought I could. Yes, he's an SB only guy - he's gonna kill all the rest of your stats. You better have a strong team around him otherwise, which I do. KC is gonna run, run, run, so barring injury, I see his projected total of 40 SB as his floor.

13.05 Jordan Hicks, RP STL
I wanted a RP here - I thought I could latch on to some leftover closers at this point in the draft. Hicks is a phenom. If he can reign in his fastball just a little bit more, he will be devastating. There's some question if he will get full-time closing duties, and I don't really know the answer to that question. It's a risk-reward play, but much less risk at round 13.

14.12 Kenta Maeda, SP LAD
I got bad news on Severino, so I needed to address SP's right now. Maeda was the highest rated SP on my board, despite only projecting for 135 IP (mostly because he has some relief IP in there). He's a better pitcher than the Dodgers seem to think he is, relegating him to the 5th spot in the rotation. (The Dodgers do have a stacked rotation, if everyone is healthy). If he can stay there, and not get moved to the bullpen, he will be fine.

15.05 Hunter Renfroe, OF SD
This spot was reserved for the tried and true "Best Available Hitter". With the UT in play, it didn't really matter what position. Renfroe will be good in SLG and RBI, some R. Not so much in OBP, but I have that pretty well covered. The offense is shaping up really well so far with only a couple spots left to address.
3Khahan
      ID: 80441414
      Mon, Mar 18, 2019, 14:45
11.03 Josh Bell 1st Pit

I had him G20 for the past few years and just traded him away this offseason. Now he's my 1st baseman (or backup) in this league, DD and 8men out. Go figure. As far as this league goes, I think he plays out really well here. I can draw a walk which helps his OBP. While he's not a huge power source for lots of HR, he can hit doubles (and has the potential for a surprising HR total). His slg should be good. Various sites have him between .775 and .790 with the potential for 135-145 runs/rbis. I'll gladly take that in the 11th in a 16 man league that also uses CI.

12.13 Archie Bradley RP, Ari
3W 23S 71K's (in 67 IP) 3.63 era and 1.25 whip That is the composite projection from rotochamp for a round 12 pick. Considering rotochamp's composite utilizes steamer and zips which I have found are pretty not-good at era/whip projections (they are usually high) this is a solid 2nd closer for me. Great k/9 for Archie, Save opps and should be solid in era/whip.

13.04 Chris Archer SP, Pit
Who's left in the draft that has the potential 200K's? Only 1 guy - Chris Archer. I could really boost in this category. And the way my era/whip are looking he actually shouldn't really hurt those categories (what I need is help in them, but i'll take 200K's at the expense of steady ratios). I've always shied away from Archer because every single year I've felt his ADP was a huge reach for what to expect for him - ie: he's over rated. But at pick 13, he actually feels like a solid pick that should give me a good return on my investment.

14.13 Francisco Mejia C, Sdg

Do over please. He's a popular pick and a hot prospect with some solid expectations this year. But do I really want to spent round 14 on a guy who will be lucky to get 330 at bats, regardless of his position? Total brain fart pick on my pick. Nothing against him. Just looking at his value and a limited number of at-bats/plate appearances, he can't justify a round 14 pick.

15.04 DJ LeMahieu 2nd NYY
Another value pick. Mid-teen pick for a MI that gives me a .750 OPS, a handful of SB and should score a ton of runs in a loaded line up. Fills out the MI spot.
4C1-NRB
      ID: 55213215
      Mon, Mar 18, 2019, 23:04
11.11 Eric Hosmer, 1B, SDG RIBC 13.04 ESPN AAA 14.02
I took Hosmer to counter Abreu’s OBP drain. Expecting +150 RuPro even in PetCo. Abreu’s off-season surgery makes me a little nervous, as it should most guys (look it up), so a workhorse like Hosmer could be a solid backup. I was really hoping for a MI at this spot, DeJong in particular.

12.06 Shin-soo Choo, OF, TEX RIBC 14.02 ESPN AAA 15.13
I only had two “real” OF at this point and needed someone that wouldn’t kill me in the ratios. Choo does well in this format with a +.350 OBP. Hitting near the top of Texas’s lineup will get him across the plate at a well-above-average rate.

13.11 Andrelton Simmons, SS, LAA RIBC 14.11 ESPN AAA 13.08
Got a MI two slots later. Simmons will get a handful of SB’s and won’t completely tank SLG. I don’t like his RuPro hitting in the middle of the Angel’s lineup but maybe he jumps back up to leadoff if Cozart doesn’t cut it.

14.06 Jose Martinez, 1B/OF, STL RIBC undrafted yet ESPN AAA 14.05
Going down my sheet I came across another high OPS still sitting there. Projected at +.800 OPS even though he won’t get a lot time, perhaps platooning with Fowler. I marked him as a 1B in Draftime, but wanted him for his OF eligibility. I had my eye on the workhorse Nick Markakis here and Jackie Bradley Jr for a few more SB’s.

15.11 Miguel Sano, 3B, MIN RIBC undrafted yet ESPN AAA 17.10
RuPro and SLG. That’s all I saw here at this pick. I’m sure this is my Pick of Regret. And that’s saying something considering my next pick… Gregory Polanco, who went next, is where I think I would go for a do-over.
5Toral
      ID: 9541311
      Tue, Mar 19, 2019, 11:56

11.06 Ryan McMahon, 1B/2B/3B, Col The other leagues' pix aren't relevant here, becuz at ESPN McMahon is eligible only at 1B. His triple eligibility at Yahoo! makes him a totally different proposition here.

McMahon hit .337 in over 500 Triple-A at-bats. He bombed in his first call-up while learning to play 2nd base, although was better in the second half, with a 1.076 OPS at home.

This year he started in a competition with Garrett Hampson (10.02) at second base, with a platoon being the expected outcome, with McMahon on the strong side. When I picked him up he was hitting .444. He didn't stay at that level, of course. He got better, upping to .462/.511/.821 a few days later. The Rockies fielded a lineup a while back which Colorado writers and bloggers suggested might be the Opening Day lineup. McMahon was in it. I have seen good reviews of his defence.Meanwhile Hampson is being tried at SS, his original position, and in the outfield.

Perhaps I could have got McMahon later, but Gurudan forced my hand by picking Hampson at 10.02. If he's worth picking at 10.02, where should the guy who has the job go? I don't always do well trying to think with MLB organizations, but if you had a super prospect who was hitting like McMahon in spring training, wouldn't you want to get him in the lineup and see what he can do?

12.11 Nick Pivetta, SP, Phi (RIBC 13.01, OtherAAA 12.10). In an earlier rationale I mentioned Fantasy Baseball Guide. Fantasy magazines are somewhat outdated in this day and age, but you can read them in a bathtub and if you accidentally drop them in, no damage is done. The guide has a roster of 30+ contributors, who intermittently describe players as a “Pick” or a “Pan”, with short reasons. Nick Pivetta is a 9-pick player this year. I've never seen that before in FBG. And that was from before it was known that the Phillies would be a better team than expected.

His upside is about 16 wins, 200Ks, and an ERA around 3.50. His weakness is homeruns, which could bite him.

13.06 Nick Senzel, 3B, Cin (RIBC 11.12, OtherAAA 12.06) Senzel is a little more valuable at ESPN, where he's eligible at second base. The Reds' top prospect is playing center field in spring training. He had been projected to win the job, but there are now 4 guys competing for 3 positions. A typical projection has him at .290/.359/.473 with double-digit stolen bases. The Reds say they will start their best lineup with no service-time considerations. Can they be believed?

14.11 Rich Hill, SP, LAD (RIBC 12.05, OtherAAA 11.06) I had the luxury of 3 Dodger starters here, and I really couldn't decide among them. Kenta Maeda went one pick later, while Hyung-Jin Rae lasted to 16.08. The raters say Hill; my instincts said Ryu. The problem with Hill is that blisters and other maladies are likely to hold him to around 130 IP of high-quality pitching.

15.06 Danny Jansen, C, Tor (RIBC undrafted, OtherAAA 15.09) The Blue Jays don't know what they are doing and their word can't be trusted. But the key to Jansen's value is that they say they want to see if Jansen can be an everyday catcher. – not just a timesharer type To back that up, potential competition [undrafted] has been shuffled off to Buffalo, leaving only defensive specialist [undrafted] to give Jansen time off as required.

Jansen is hitting for average but without power or walks in spring training. He has shown both power and plate discipline in the minors.
6Graydog
      ID: 202281520
      Wed, Mar 20, 2019, 16:08
11.13 Ramon Laureano, OF, NYM

Looking back this was definitely a reach. I probably could have waited on Laureano. I like his profile and the changes he made for last year so I was targeting him. A power/speed guy who is slotted to leadoff to start the year. If he helps in runs and steals and doesn't hurt too much for the other categories I will do okay here.

12.04 Ryan Braun, Of, MIL

Now a boring vet who will likely miss a few games, hopefully the DL trip is shorter than longer. He should still provide double digit steals which is more valuable than ever. I didn't see anything in his profile to suggest a major decline last year. Hopefully he has another year at 17/18 levels.

13.13 Marwin Gonzalez, SS, Min

Many of the shortstops I was looking at fell in the two rounds before this pick. He should provide average if not super helpful numbers across the board. Currently eligible everywhere but 3rd base which he will gain quickly with Sano injured. Gonzalez gives me an injury contingency plan for everywhere which is very valuable in RIBC.

14.04 Andrew Miller, RP, STL

I'm banking on last years numbers being largely due to injury. Should provide elite ratios and a few saves.

15.13 Randal Grichuk, OF, TOR

I wanted a power bat and he seemed as likely as anyone left to slug .500 with a full season of at bats. Started poorly last year, got hurt, revamped his swing and was very good the 2nd half. If those gains stick this will be a bargain.
7filthy
      ID: 45320290
      Thu, Mar 21, 2019, 01:40
11.03 Adam Eaton, OF, WAS
RIBC (12.03); AAA (13.07); AA (9.01).
Had been debating Eloy when I took Robles. Had been looking at Rosario and Moncada for a while. Thought a catcher would make it back to me, but none of the ones I wanted remain. Another closer, SS, C would've been smartest. Eaton and Schwarber standing out though. A lot of my needs have more sleeperish names that I'm seeming to prefer. Eaton possibly batting second in a still potent looking Nats lineup has me excited. Just need to hope he has a lucky year for once. Not counting on it, building up offensive depth due to the high risk options being selected.

12.14 Shane Greene, RP, DET
RIBC (13.14); AAA (13.06); AA (13.09).
Another closer seems to have slipped below where I have him, so it feels worth scooping him up. Nothing but question marks elsewhere for relief, although they may end up as better picks, for now Greene seems set to have closer role until All Star. C/SS can still wait but starting to look a little troublesome. Locking up a likely closer seems to have more benefit at this point.

13.03 Lourdes Gurriel Jr, SS, TOR
RIBC (17.05); AAA (16.13); AA (18.09).
SS/MI/C/Util/pitching is the remaining needs. Gurriel hasn't really been set loose yet is my feeling. It was close but he had a collision at first base right when he was catching fire. Came back with minimal time to find the groove again but seemed to be recovered at least. Feeling like he will be a multi hit machine and get a nice chunk of regular AB this year. Gonna be fun to watch. Not wanting to risk that he will survive by letting him slip.

14.14 Niko Goodrum, 2B/SS, DET
RIBC (18.09); AAA (18.09); AA (17.16).
Really hitting well in spring after surprising last year. Seems like he has earned a role and not taking it for granted. Perfect recipe for success in my books. If Khahan had picked Ryu or Stripling, I would have picked the other to keep the Dodger pitcher streak alive, alas, I stuck to my original plan of selecting a bat. Hindsight I should have been looking at Yandy Diaz or Danny Jansen, as they were lower on my queue but players that I felt safer to let slip. My radar is way off! Reaching when I don't need to, and letting slip what I should reach for! Perhaps it's going to save me from myself.

15.03 Mike Foltynewicz, SP, ATL
RIBC (11.02); AAA (9.01); AA (8.13).
One of those ones where we don't know if he'll end up having setbacks and miss the year ultimately, or if he'll just miss the first few weeks and have a solid 4-5 months. Slipped enough for my liking. Two anchors at SP is going to allow me to take some big risks filling out my staff. Anything close to last year for 5 months would be unbelievable. Even a few months after some rust would be good. Lost season of setbacks is very realistic, but I don't see much better upside at this point. Jansen, Molina, Kikuchi are names that I maybe should have chosen in hindsight. Will see!
8 dan girard
      ID: 5972117
      Thu, Mar 21, 2019, 11:31
11.15 Cody Allen RP LAA

My first closer. My strategy is usually my 1st closer around RD 6, but with the top guys gone, I decided to wait.

12.02 Arodys Vizcaino RP ATL

My 2nd closer. After waiting til later, with the pool shrinking, I need to act.

13.15 Jakob Junis SP KC

I expect his results to reflect RD 13 expectations.

14.02 Harrison Bader OF STL

Projects as STL starting CFer, so I'll be delighted with him contributing in SB's

15.15 Troy Tulowitski SS NYY

Hoping for a flash from the past.

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