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0 Subject: AAA-Yahoo Rationales Rounds 16-20

Posted by: Toral
- [9541311] Wed, Mar 20, 2019, 14:17


This thread is for AAA-Yahoo draft rationales from rounds 16-20.

Please do not mention undrafted players.
1Uptown Bombers
      ID: 38261518
      Wed, Mar 20, 2019, 16:02
16.09 Christin Stewart, OF, DET

You guys really ate up my queue since my last pick. I was hopeful one of Grichuk, Cron, or Mancini would make it back to me. No dice. This really made me want to draft another pitcher, but a few that I had my eye on were also recently drafted and it feels like I need to draft more offense here anyway having spent the last two picks on pitching. The problem is that all the top hitters on my spreadsheet have a much later ADP than this. I’d like to risk it and take more pitching but at this stage of the draft, especially in a league this competitive, if I want a player I should just take him. So I trust the spreadsheet and take one of my top available hitters. I choose Stewart because he should have every opportunity to play every day on a crap DET roster (some of my other options are platoons), his OPS potential, and his hot spring. I know, I know, Spring stats are for suckers.

17.08 Matt Strahm, SP, SD

I’m doubling up on SD pitchers. Strahm is an upside pick. He has had a good spring and should win a rotation spot. It’s unrealistic to count an anything more than 125-140 IP, but if he gets those innings and has the breakthrough some experts expect, this will be a great pick. The good news is that in round 17, it’s a gamble worth taking. History dictates low success rate on picks this late, so we all try to find sleeper value. Side note: all four SP’s I’ve drafted are lefties.

18.09 Wilmer Flores, 2B/CI, ARI

Another pick, like Christin Stewart, that my rankings like more than his ADP. But Flores fits everything I want for my team at this point: a 4th MI, position flexibility, RBI and SLG potential. I would have taken Alonso or Kang had they made it to me and hoped for Flores later, but with both gone, I go for it. My other consideration here was Brad Peacock. I am really hoping he lasts until my next pick.

19.08 Brad Peacock, SP, HOU

I’m happy to get my top pitching choice.

What I don’t know: do I have my 5th SP or my 4th RP. Reports indicate that Peacock is in the lead for a rotation spot but given the teams depth at SP and Peacock’s success in the bullpen, it wouldn’t surprise me for him to be a part time starter. (Update: Now Hinch calls Peacock the “leading candidate” for the 5th starter. Still not a rock solid commitment.)

What I think I know: regardless of where they come from, I am getting quality innings from Peacock. Low ratios and solid K’s. I suspect he will start the season in the rotation and then get sent back to the pen.

What I can hope for: Peacock shines in his early starts and the Astros have no choice but to leave him in the rotation. He would still likely face an innings cap, so I’ll need to stream some guys in an out. Banking the quality innings from Peacock will make that more tolerable.

20.09 Odubel Herrera, OF, PHI

Based on the other RIBC drafts, I am the only one who likes Christin Stewart that much. I should probably draft some OF protection. Most projections have Herrera improving from last year’s numbers and returning closer to 2017, 60/60/.750 OPS and 8-9 SB. Better yet, he is still young in an improved Phillies lineup so there is potential to exceed that. His 1st/2nd half splits last year were lopsided. Maybe I get a full year of the first half Odubel. Or maybe he is streaky and I can play him when hot and bench when not. In round 20, what else can you ask for. He was drafted in 16th round in RIBC and AA and 18th round in AAA ESPN, so maybe I got some of my lost value back from the early Christin Stewart pick in 16th round.
2Nerfherders
      ID: 33543714
      Wed, Mar 20, 2019, 17:55
16.12 Nathan Eovaldi, SP BOS
It's time to catch up on pitching. I ended up taking a pitcher on every turn for the next 6 after 12/13. Eovaldi projects with an average ERA but a good WHIP and peripherals, so the ERA could certainly go down. He's also on a great team, so the wins should come.

17.05 Pete Alonso, 1B, NYM
I knew I wanted a CI here, and I was looking at bunch of players. I scrolled a bit lower on my draft board and spotted Alonso. The projection was mediocre, but when I saw his minor numbers from the season before I did a double take - 36 HR and a .970 OPS! I couldn't let this one go. The Mets will probably play the service-time game with him to start the season, but I suspect he will out-perform his rather pedestrian projections. This is probably the pick I'm most excited about in this draft. I love getting these young players and see what they can do.

18.12 Marco Gonzales, SP SEA
Yet another SP. I like his overall stats, even if he doesn't project as many K's as most other starters. He'll be solid, if unspectacular.

19.05 Ryan Zimmerman, 1B WAS
I admit this pick was a bit of a reach (is any pick a reach in the 19th round?), but I felt I needed someone to at least back up CI in case Alonso was kept down for April. I fully expect Zim to be hurt and off my team by the middle of June, but his numbers until then will be solid.

20.12 Chad Green, RP NYY
I had Familia all queued up here, ready to take him, but I decided to take a look at some other guys first. I liked Green's numbers a little better, even if he's less likely to get saves. You never know with relievers, of course, and if they come out of the blocks cold, it's easy to reject them quickly. We shall see!
3Graydog
      ID: 202281520
      Wed, Mar 20, 2019, 20:56
16.04 Ryan Pressly, RP, HOU

A next in line closer type with a great potential to have productive ratio stats and a few saves.

17.13 Jeff Mcneil, 2B, NYM

A rookie who had a stunning season last year at all 3 levels he played. I wasn't sure about playing time but as the mets are facing injuries it looks like he will start the season as their third basemen. He should also gain OF eligibility at some point. He has carried his 2018 hitting into spring training...maybe he can carry it into April? The Mets seem to think so as he projects to start the year hitting 1st or 2nd.

18.04 Delino Deshields, OF, TEX

steals steals steals. Hopefully if my other SB options (Mondesi and Laureano) pan out and I stay healthy he can mostly occupy my bench. He obviously can run but the question is can he get on base.

19.13 Steve Pearce, 1B, BOS

Will be in my starting lineup against lefties, until he gets hurt.

20.04 Josh Harrison, 2B, DET

Not sure if I love this pick...definitely a candidate to be an early drop. Looks like he will leadoff so hopefully I am able to hold on to him for a bit and see how he pans out.

4 dan girard
      ID: 5972117
      Thu, Mar 21, 2019, 11:38
16.02 Jon Gray SP COL
17.15 Greg Holland RP ARIZ
18.02 Joe Musgrove SP PITT
19.15 Touki Toussaint SP ATL
20.02 Daniel Palka 1B, OF CSOX

Filling out the roster with the the hope of picking up a gem!!
5Toral
      ID: 9541311
      Sat, Mar 23, 2019, 18:18

16.11 Brian Anderson, 3B/OF, Mia (RIBC 17.09, OthsrAAA16.09) Looked good in first half as rookie, crashed in September. Good plate discipline, decent speed but has not transformed it into stolen bases. Pencilled in as clean-up hitter vs. RHP, batting 2nd against LHP, so if the Marlins manage to score any runs, Anderson should be in on it.

17.06 Pedro Strop, RP ChC (RIBC 10.14, Other AAA 12.15) Strop, if healthy by Opening Day, will close until Morrow (19.12) is healthy. Has the skills to keep the job given the opportunity. I attribute the drop in K rate to the addition of a new pitch last year; his swinging K rate is the same. 5 years of sub-3.00 ERAs; I look for another.

18.11 Jeff Samardzija, SP, SFG (RIBC undrafted, OtherAAA 22.14) Every team needs to reach for a sleeper; it feels great when they come through. 1 of only 2 pitchers to throw 200 IP per year from 2013-2017. Shoulder trouble wrecked last year, but did not require surgery. Looks healthy, in a pitcher's park, could be team's best starter.

I was willing to wait until round 19, but made the judgment that one of 3 first basemen who I had as relatively equal – Justin Bour, Ryan Zimmerman, and Ryan O'Hearn -- would make it to be in round 19, which, if so, makes Samardzija safe to pick here.

19.06 Ryan O'Hearn, 1B, K.C. (RIBC 18.01, OtherAAA 18.06) The survival of one of first basemen queue to this pick was a close-run thing. Bour went at 19.02, Zimmerman at 19.05. He may have been playing over his head in 2018, but 12 HR in 149 AK earns him another chance. Good plate discipline should mitigate some of the effects of a possible decline in BA.

20.11 Blake Parker, RP, Min (RIBC 18.13, Other AAA 18.08) No closer designated yet for the Twins. Parker is the underdog, but he has more 9th inning experience and has put up a nice k/BB rate in spring training.
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