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Subject: RATIONALES 1-5 for ESPN AAA 2020
Posted by: Judy
- [30244220] Mon, Mar 09, 2020, 22:13
first, tell us why you chose or got stuck with your slot.
Do rationales in groups of five/5. If possible, bold the header which has the name, position and team.
Thanks.
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| 1 | Species
SuperDude
ID: 07724916
Wed, Mar 11, 2020, 15:32
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13th Slot: I was resigned to picking 13th or 14th and began a bunch of mocks from those spots to see how I liked it - which I did at least from a 1st and 2nd round perspective (it gets really murky after that, so why worry). When it was my turn, however, both 11 and 12 were available. In general, unless I have a high pick and I want one of the elite tier, I like to pick in the middle to be able to respond to runs. So, I picked 11th.
1.11: Alex Bregman, SS/3b, HOU
I had Trevor Story atop my queue but he was sniped by youngroman. Thus, the debate was between Jacob DeGrom (who I did not really consider would be here) and Bregman. I love DeGrom and gave him serious consideration, particularly in light of the sign stealing controversy for Bregman. There is some risk that he will be beaned or otherwise be negatively affected emotionally by the heckling and media questions that surround him in particular as kind of the villain of the controversy.
In the end, even when you take his 2019 and discount it for all of the risk factors above, Bregman is still such a 4-category stud in this format - his OBP and SLG are elite because even if he hits fewer HR he still blasts a ton of doubles - that made me feel safe about a foundational piece in round 1. 100/100 with a .390+ OBP and .530+ SLG seem like a lock. SS/3b eligibility doesn't hurt.
2.06 Anthony Rendon, 3b, LAA
Rendon moves to the American League to hit behind Mike Trout and his ridiculous .430-whatever OBP, giving Rendon more ducks on the pond than ever before. I expect him to hit 3rd and have Ohtani and Upton behind him for protection. He does not have to duplicate his 1.010 OPS from 2019 to live up to this draft spot. Something around a .385 OBP and .530 SLG - comfortable numbers based upon his 2017 and 2018 - with 100/100 would be wonderful.
I would have taken JD Martinez or Freddie Freeman here but they appropriately went ahead of me. I felt Rendon was the last of a mini-tier of top bats and was okay 'settling' for him.
3.11 Austin Meadows, OF, TB
While awaiting the human rain delay that has been twilson to start this draft, I identified that Springer and Meadows were the two main targets of this pick. Freed of the Pirates, Meadows broke out in 2019 with Tampa, who really knows how to develop players.
There is some risk that his 2019 was a fluke, but all of the Statcast data backs up when he did at the plate. After two players that contribute little to nothing in SB, having Meadows capable of something in the teens was also a factor. Other options were Keston Hiura and Clayton Kershaw.
4.06 Yu Darvish, SP, CHC
Reach!
Maybe, maybe not. But Darvish showed his skill in the second half of 2019, posting a 3.58 ERA and 0.92 WHIP with an eye-popping 192 K's in 146 IP. The man has a lifetime 3.57 ERA and 1.17 WHIP with 1299 K in 1051 career innings , so expecting him to be at roughly his career norms is a piece of cake.
So long as he is healthy. But you can say that about every pitcher.
I had Luis Castillo higher and hoped he would fall but he went 2 picks before me. I debated for a while between Darvish and Charlie Morton, as I could not stomach the risk of Blake Snell. If I did not have Rendon I would have considered Josh Donaldson.
5.11 Mike Clevinger, SP, CLE
This is one of those points in the draft where you alter the next few rounds depending upon which way you go. Do you grab that strong hitter or shore up your rotation with a second SP. In the end there were enough bats I liked that I decided to grab a SP, with Paddack, Giolito and Syndergaard (who I like for a rebound) staring me in the face.
Clevinger has fallen in drafts due to a partial tear in the meniscus (knee cap). I had just read how he threw his first bullpen yesterday with no ill effects and it made me consider him. There is no doubting that he is an easy top 10 SP if healthy with 3-year averages of 2.96 ERA and 1.15 WHIP with 10.33 K/9. So, I am rolling the dice for a mid-April return and 165-ish stud innings. YOLO!!
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| 2 | JeffG
ID: 44182712
Wed, Mar 11, 2020, 17:27
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Hoping everyone does rationales
Slot 7
Just going with my usual approach of closest to the top. This year after a clear top 3 picks, there can be a number of ways managers can draft so being close to the top at number 7 may land me someone I have ranked 4 or 5. Six of the seven folks with slot selection ahead of me thought the same, all going top pick left. For those of us in the middle, one could make an argument this season that there is a bunch of similar options 10-16 and that it may be better to be on the back end of the draft this year to get a front line starter or maybe a top round 2 bat. When considering pick 7, i decided it would be to me is too early for Cole or DeGrom so I will be curious to see who makes it back to me at 2.10 if I want to go SP in round 2.
1.07 Juan Soto OF Was
This is why I like going close to the front.I had Soto ranked top 4 (ok 4th) in this format, as he improves his standing compared to traditional roto rankings because of his high walk rate which should trend him towards a OBP over .400 and should again be the top guy in the entire league for on base not named Trout. His SLG is in line with other hitting options at the front of the draft and he should be in the triple digits for R and RBI. Minor downside is he is not really a steals guy but none of the others under consideration here are either. Did not consider pitching here with stud hitters still on the board, will see who is best available when i pick next to see if i go that way. Next name in my queue this pick was Bregman whose projections are only slightly under Soto across the board and has SS eligibility.
2.10 Jack Flaherty SP Stl
In round 2, my hitter queue took an expected beating in the 9 picks before me (JD, Rizzo, Rendon, Devers), but not as many pitchers as I expected to be grabbed this round which luckily left me with a choice between Flaherty and Strasburg. I usually have bad luck with selecting late in draft SP, for every late gem there is a late blow up your ratios guy, and with starting pitchers in general seeing less innings of work it would be nice to get someone who should have a solid workload pitching deeper into games (starting and throwing more innings should relate to a few more wins.. another stat becoming tougher to chase in fantasy). Last couple of RIBC seasons my staff was no where near the innings limit costing me valuable counting stats. So I may amend my SP strategy from prior years. For this pick I actually went back and forth on this one with Strasburg and Flaherty, eventually going with Flaherty who is six years younger.
3.07 George Springer OF Hou
Oh my... we had a run of MI since my last pick, not unexpected, no reaches I guess, well maybe. I tend this early to take best player available without relation to position, at least the first three rounds that is kind of the plan. So no biggie having 2 outfielders in 3 rounds. When my last pick was selected I had Bryant, Springer, Blackmon, Torres, Cruz queued as best available hitters available, and Strasburg and Beiber as the best pitchers left before a tier drop. I was left to decide between Springer and Bieber when this pick hit. It was close, not a bad idea to solidify pitching... but wanted another 4-tool hitter. Like everyone else, looking to solidify my ratios and counting stats to counter act those who will be drafted later, and in a loaded linuep should he be real solid in all (non steals) categories and maybe his OBP will see a little surge with everyone throwing at Astros this year.
4.10 Josh Donaldson 3B Min
My top SPs on the board here were Snell and Grienke (who was taken significantly ahead of pick 58 in the other RIBC drafts) , also had been looking at DH Cruz here, but decided on 3B Josh here. He is another type of player like my earlier pick Soto that is more valued with our OPS format vs a standard 5x5. He should contribute well in four of the hitting categories. A quick glance at everyone else's roster and most have already taken someone who can help in the steals category, and I'll be likeley chasing stolen bases all year to stay out of the bottom.
5.07 Marcus Semien SS Oak
Nelson Cruz who I have been looking at for a few rounds is still on the board. Folks likely skittish on his age and wrist injury, but he should be alright? right? Is it just his DH eligibility scaring people? Who knows! A couple of closers grabbed right before me. Will there be a closer run coming this early? Have a bunch of interchangeable starters, and I'm sure one or more will come back to me. Anyway went with Semien. Was among my top hitters queued and went for the shortstop. He sits at the top of the Oakland lineup with some pop, could near 100 runs scored. Not a steals guy per se, but likely at lead off could swipe 10.
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| 3 | youngroman
ID: 25116273
Wed, Mar 11, 2020, 18:02
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draft pick #10
I was not yet prepared when selecting this pick so when I was up and #10 was the best pick available I just took it. I am not a fan of having my picks too close, so #10 was the best I could get, which is almost in the middle in each round. I hope this allows me to not get caught up if some runs are started in between.
1.10 Trevor Story, SS, COL
with this pick I was either taking a pitcher (deGrom) or one out of Story/Turner because there was no hope in getting Betts or Soto.
I thought a lot if I should take the more SB's of Turner over the Coors-Field inflated numbers of Story. in the end I took the 20 SB's of Story because I don't need 30+ from Turner in round 1.
2.07 Rafael Devers, 3B, BOS
coming into that pick, and with deGrom gone I penciled in one of Rendon, Devers or Altuve. Rendon went at 2.06 so I thought back and forth between Devers, the potential young star, and Altuve, the known commodity that does not run as much as in prior years.
there is not much space between these 2. There is definitely more potential for Devers, so I took him. Devers even gets compared to Mike Trout and there are some statistics out there where they have almost identical stats after roughly 2 full seasons worth of stats. I would not mind if that trend continues.
3.10 Shane Bieber, SP, CLE
a lot of SP's in the first 2 tiers have already injury issues or there are serious injury concerns heading into the season: Verlander, Snell, Kershaw, Morton. The only one that has no such sign attached yet is Shane Bieber. So it is either him or a hitter. Out of the hitters nobody was ahead of its group, so I better take Bieber and see which hitter is left at 4.07.
4.07 Joey Gallo, OF, TEX
all starting pitchers projected to be drafted until round 4 are either already on a team or have injury concerns. This means that looking for hitters was the route to go.
With SS and 3B filled I primarily looked at 1B (Olsen, Abreu, Bell) and OF (Gallo, Eloy). I did not want to take a DH (Cruz) that early, because it reduces roster flexibility at a point where I don't know yet where I might have a surplus.
I was not able to decide between any of the 1B's and with taking a risk on Devers in round 2 I did not feel comfortable taking Eloy with this pick. Gallo looks good on paper, and matches better in our scoring system with OBP instead of AVG. I just hope that he keeps crushing balls out of the field.
5.10 Jose Abreu, 1B/DH, CWS
A few closers went this round, but the run stopped and I do not expect too many of them going until my next pick is due. I don't like the starting pitchers that are usually considered around this ADP. again.
I thought about Abreu a pick ago. Olson went since then, so the top 1B options available are him and Bell. Eloy and Cruz, who I also considered with my last pick are still out there as well. I still like Abreu the most out of all of them, and with 4 teams without a 1B until I am up again, I better take him now, because he most likely won't be there at 6.07.
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| 4 | Seattle Zen
ID: 301361318
Thu, Mar 12, 2020, 14:30
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It’s that time of year! Why did I go with the 13th pick when I could have taken the 7th? Well, I like the first three slots a lot, but the next three are quite a bit behind them, in my mind. I like four starters – Cole, deGrom, Max and Verlander. I like the Top Four – Acuna, Trout, Yelich and Bellinger. Betts is a tier below, but if available at 13, I’d take him. Also a big fan of Juan Soto. There are four shortstops I like, too, Lindor, Bregman, Turner and Story. That’s fourteen players, I will get one of them. I went with 13 because I get pick number 20 and I like who will be available at #20 a lot more than who I would likely land at #26. Add Arenado, Rendon, Jose Ramirez, JD Martinez, Tatis Jr. to the list above and landing two of those players is very appealing.
I was lucky pick number 13 in an earlier draft and when it got to pick #12, it was down to Turner and 1.13.13 Gerritt Cole, P, NYY. Cole was taken right before me in that draft, the opposite happened here. I feel quite fortunate to land the #1 arm on my list at thirteen, he has not been taken after #10 in the 90 NFBC drafts in March. I think he will win a ton of games for the Yankees this year, his K rate and ERA/WHIP are stellar.
After Valkarie took his second starter, I had 2.04.20 JD Martinez, OF, Bos ahead of Rendon and Freddy Freeman as my next choice. I already have Freddy in two keeper leagues and after hearing about how bad his elbow hurt him last season and still stings in Spring Training, that is a touch concerning. Toral took him, so I am more than happy to take JD, the guy I took seventh overall last year. Four category god.
Watching the rest of the second round and early third round, no surprises other than Tim Anderson going a bit early. Pitchers are not coming off the board as fast as I thought they might. I like George Springer and was hoping he may fall to me, JeffG got a bargain. I know that shortstop is remarkably deep, historically deep, but that doesn’t mean that all sixteen teams will draft a great one. I have my eye on a few bargains and would really love to land Carlos Correa at pick 77, but if I wait for him there and he’s gone, then what? I don’t need to tell all of you how we covet middle infielders. I am not crazy about 3.13.45 Manny Machado, SS, SD. He has a large career split between playing at Camden Yards and all other fields. So I have decided that I am going to put on my Colorado Rockies GM hat and make a challenge trade with the Padres – Noland for Manny, straight up. That will help. Even staying at Petco, he has a decent projection of 820 OPS and 160-170 R/RBI. Maybe steal ten bags. He has the ability to have a +850 OPS season, very good for a shortstop.
As I am awaiting my turn, I start to panic. I fully intended to take a bat, best one available but all my favorites have come off the board. I feel discombobulated. Do I take a flier on Justin Verlander? Tommy Pham hasn’t played at all this Spring coming off an injury? Do I take Joey Gallo, he was mashing last year, a 1.100 OPS before he got hurt? Josh Donaldson, DJ LeMahieu are targets. Will Nelson Cruz last until the 5th round? What about Clayton Kershaw? Well, Verlander goes to Valkarie, who won’t care if he misses half the year because he already has deGrom and Scherzer! Toral takes Kershaw and now I’m not sure what to do. I look to the market for help. I’m torn between Charlie Morton and 4.04.52 Luis Castillo, SP, Reds. The projections are nearly identical, the market favors Luis, Castillo is younger, the Reds are improved, I go with the Spanish speaking flamethrower. The two headed monster of Cole and Castillo will be a great foundation.
Most of my queue gets taken as I watch the picks come in. I have Nelson Cruz at the top and Victor Reyes way up there. I am light on steals and I figure he will improve this year, stealing even more. Nelson is Big Papi 2.0, the Latin basher who slips in drafts because he is a UTIL only player. He’s great in all formats and healthy like bull! But I am also looking at my third base list and I see a drop off on the horizon after the perennially undervalued 5.13.77 Eugenio Suarez, 3rd, Reds Outstanding walk rate, he’s projected to have a 880-890 OPS, over one hundred RBI and maybe this season the Reds can knock him in a few more times. No, he doesn’t steal bases, why, is that a category? Hopefully Nelson Cruz can make it around the corner back to me...
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| 5 | Toral
ID: 9541311
Thu, Mar 12, 2020, 15:50
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0.12, 14th Slot
10, 11, and 12 were open here, but I didn't go my normal route of taking the best slot available. With the shortage of top pitching around in this juiced ball era, I wanted an ace. I figured that there were 4 available, later added Buehler to make 5. Slots 13 and 14 became desirable. Seattle Zen took 13, simplifying the choice. At 14, I will know whether I have to pick a pitcher, depending on how many putative aces have already been taken. It's highly unlikely that either of those picking 15th and 16th will take pocket aces, so if 3 aces are left, I don't need to take a pitcher in the first round.
1.14 Nolan Arenado, 3B, Col (RIBC 1.16, OtherAAA 1.10)
Justin Verlander has departed the list of aces; I was watching him pitch Sunday and thought something was wrong with him even before he was pulled from the game. But happily there are still 3 aces left so it's safe to pick a hitter because there's no way that Valkyrie or Thumper are going to take pocket aces.
The guys like Turner, Story and Harper I might have wanted here are gone. Arenado is a slugger who is a model of consistency. The only worry is that he might get shipped out of Colorado.
2.03 Freddie Freeman, 1B, Atl (RIBC 1.14, OtherAAA 2.02)
Help! Murder! Police! The best laid schemes o' mice an' men gang aft agley! Valkyrie crossed me up by taking 2 aces from the 15 hole– the two I would have picked too. With Thumqer taking Buehler, so much for my plan.
So I need a hitter. Freeman looks like the best of the bunch here. Too young to enter his decline phase I hope. A season somewhere closer to '19 than '18 would be would be fine. In the past I've concentrated on MIs early and found myself lacking power; maybe that won't be a problem this year.
3.14 Keston Hiura, 2B, Mil (RIBC 3.15, Other AAA 3.13)
A 23-year old 2B projected to bat cleanup looks good to me. Hoping for double-digit steals. OPS of 1.185 with 3 taters in spring training as I type this. Apparently I drafted him at his consensus position looking at the other leagues. FBG 4-PICK, 0-PAN. Also considered: Whit Merrifield (4.09), Bo Bichette (4.01), Adalberto Mondesi (3.15).
4.03 Clayton Kershaw, SP, LA (RIBC 3.01, OtherAAA 4.03)
I thot I should be looking for a pitcher here. I had Luis Castillo (4.04) all teed up when it suddenly occurred to me to doublecheck that Kershaw had been taken. I'm drafting in the AA league which has been going at about the same pace and I knew he had been taken there. I sometimes get confused who has been taken where. Finding him available here, I grabbed him.
Kershaw has injury concerns, but the way pitchers have been falling in ST, who doesn't? He will start on Opening Day for what may be the best team in baseball, and will pitch well when he can take the mound.
5.14 Lucas Giolito, SP, ChA(OtherAAA 5.15)
I was away from Internet for 2 hours Wednesday morning and was looking at outfielders, thinking it was time to draft one. After considerable mulling, I decided Victor Robles was the guy out of 7 or so I was considering. When I got back online, I see that Tosh had picked him at 5.09. I can't really decide between the other 6 guys, so I will defer that decision go with a position where do I do have an opinion – SP.
Giolito last year just did what had always been expected of him. He altered his repertoire and his fastball got quicker as the uear went on. The Sox are supposed to be better this year and he's throwing to Grandal, one of the best pitch framers in the league. The only thing against him is a fade late in the year. Most likely is that he just got a little tired, or so the experts tell me. FBG 4-PICK, 0 PAN.
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| 6 | Judy
ID: 142511220
Sat, Mar 14, 2020, 19:07
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Pick .08/.09. I do like to be in the Middle so runs don’t catch me by surprise and I don’t get left with dregs in categories like C, RP.
Last year I went all in on batting stats, and whoops, it didn’t work. I am looking for a more balanced team statistically.
1.08. BRYCE HARPER. OF PHL. (Yahoo 2.04/ RIBC 1.11)
I don’t usually pick in OF to start my team, but I feel that Bryce will really settle in in Philly this year. He has 4 tool stats (over 100 for R and RBI / OBP .390 / SLG .570). And for good measure he might steal 10 bases.
The fact that he went early in AAA yahoo and RIBC confirms my choice!
And, of course, he is a Phillie!
2.09. PETE ALONSO 1B NYM (2.07/2.09)
I really don’t like the Mets, but Pete is just too good to pass up and you need a slugging 1B to “survive” in this league. About 100 R and RBI will be nice as well as OBP .360 / SLG .570. He sorta matches up with Bryce stats wise.
He’s listed as 1B #3 on my cheat sheet. That works. My pick also matches yahoo and RIBC.
3.08. JAVIER BAEZ SS CHC (2.16/3.08)
Surprisingly Baez was our 8th SS taken, although 5th on my cheat sheet. The depth is there, but I felt I needed to jump into the MI position to get a “good one”. He provides similar stats to Bryce and Pete: ~ 100 R/RBI, .321 OBP, .525 SLG. I will need these three guys to balance out some later selections when I draft for other stats like SB.
4.09 WHIT MERRIFIELD 2B/OF KC (4.04/3.12)
To be honest I forget how I “found” him but Toral was not happy I grabbed him although I preferred Hiura whom he grabbed in his slot ahead of me. I felt that 2B was loaded and had a 2B in mind for this slot. Fair is fair tho, when I grabbed Kingery and D. Santana whom he wanted in 8/9. Let me check his stats for you: ah, I see. It was the 26 SB I needed. I think my total SB last year was about 45. Yikes. Further on you will see I have grabbed about 120 potential SB with my picks. Let’s see what else Whit can do for my team: a respectable .341/.441 for OBP/SLG, and about 100 R. That works.
One more thing, clearly other managers thought he was a good pick too as yahoo and bigs took him early too!
5.08. AARON NOLA SP PHL (4.07/5.15)
What, you thought I wasn’t going to draft him? Silly you. I wanted a SP here and he was still here. phew. Looking for a bounce back year by the Phillies, but it will be very important for the philly RP to preserve the leads he takes to them. He lost a lot of wins last year because our RP stank. So I am looking for 16 W, about 220K despite the fact that he rarely goes beyond the 7th, and a nice ERA and WHIP — too lazy to flip over to see exact numbers.
Plus I get to watch him on TV.
So now I have 2 Phillies...stay tuned...
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| 7 | Valkyrie
ID: 371382420
Sun, Mar 15, 2020, 15:08
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Slot 15- By the time it was my turn my only choices were 12 or 15. With near back to back picks 15 gives me a chance to be a little aggressive dictating position scarcity while 12 is primarily a reaction slot. I didn't see much difference between 12/21 and 15/18 quality wise.
1.15 Degrom SP NYMets
2.02 #18 Max Scherzer SP Wash
I was surprised when 3 of the top 5 SP's fell to me. I know pitching is much less consistent to pick than hitters (hence why virtually all auction drafts split investment 2/1 hitters vs pitchers)
but I didn't believe any two hitters I could have chosen with 15/18 would have left me in an equal position with many other drafters so I fealt compelled to go the pitching route and landing 2 of the top 4 or 5 SP's gives me a big leg up. Would have preferred Verlander to Scherzer but the late disclosure of a bicep problem with Verlander led me to choose what I thought was a slightly safer selection.
3.15 #47 Alberto Mondesi SS KC
I have to admit I got a little jumpy here picking the 10th SS off the board well ahed of his expert projections. I know Mondesi carries injury risk, OB% risk, is a one slot pony and plays for a bad team but I also knew that going SP's early I needed to show well in at least one hitter category and Mondesi gives me a chance to do this in SB's. I may really regret this pick later but I didn't have any other hitters I was in love with'
4.02 # 50 Justin Verlander SP Houst
Never guessed I would be picking a third SP here or that Verlander would fall to me 32 picks after I almost took him in the second. Well with SP's in for a dime in for a dollar-i think/hope that 3 of the top 5 SP's will give me a shot at winning 4 pitching categories? It better because my hitters will suck.
5.15 #79 Aaron Judge OF NYY
6.02 #81 Nelson Cruz DH Minn
I was really surprised that two mashers fell to me this late. I had both of them pegged late 3rd early 4th rounds. I know Cruz has no position eligibility which is why I am sure he was still available here but he was by far the best hitter still available. I guess these choices cements my decision to punt OB% in favor of slugging % which is an unusual choice for me but this who;le draft is going in new directions for me
Overall I was extremely happy with how the first quarter of this draft has gone for me. I think I got great quality picking so late , didn't lose any of my highly targeted players and generally got what I wanted for my strange roto strategy for me. A great start in 4 pitching categories, a good start in SB's and still a chance to compete in RBI' and slugging. Too bad my good fortune didn't continue into the second quarter because I would be very excited if it had.
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| 8 | GoatLocker
Dude
ID: 060151121
Sun, Mar 15, 2020, 16:14
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Picks .12 and .05 No choice at all here. And I blame it on the dummy that came up with the random numbers. (Me, for, those that are not aware!) So, as I started looking at how I wanted to plan things out, I quickly became very aware that in odd rounds I had youngromans and species in front of me and in even rounds on the turn I had Seattle Zen, Toral, Valkyrie and Thumqer in front of me. So, was very aware that I was going to have to be flexible. Had already decided I was going to pass on Pitching for my first two picks.
1.12 Trey Turner, SS, WAS Knowing I was staying away from pitching and seeing Turner available here allowed me to take care of steals early. With 35 steals last year, was actually looking at a good chance he would be in the 40s and possible as high as 44, 45. Also felt comfortable with him in the other 5 categories on the batter side. And, from a value side, I only saw 7 players with a higher value than him. And just an FYI, had him valued a fraction better than the two SS that went right in front of him. Made it fairly easy to go that route and start thinking about pick #2.
2.05 Anthony Rizzo, 1B, CHC
With Freeman already gone, my next choice at 1B was Rizzo. Not looking at SBs here, but he fit in well in the other 5 categories. Knowing that they were all going to continue to drop off as we got further into the draft and did not feel at all bad at taking him as the 21st player overall. As we all know, only time will tell. Also, with this slot, 22 picks until my next pick.
3.12 Jonathan Villar, 2B, MIA
Wasn't overly enthralled with the thought of taking a pitcher here. This helps again with steals and the only really weak category for him is slugging. And, I like his value for being 44 picks into the draft.
4.05 Tommy Pham, OF, SDG
I know, being a homer, but I do like the value here and think he can have a great season for my Padres. Will be interesting to see where they put him at in the batting order. Could have an impact on his numbers, but still felt comfortable with taking him here. I have changed up things a little this year and am being more conscious of value of a player than I have in the past. Again, only time will tell.
5.12 Noah Syndergaard, SP, NYM
Well, was time to take my first pitcher. Was fairly happy with the value I was getting from being in the 5th round. Hopefully the 4 position players I took first are worth waiting this long to pick up my first pitcher. Looking at 12 - 14 wins and an average of 9+ K's per 9 innings pitched.
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| 9 | Jaydog
ID: 350128
Mon, Mar 23, 2020, 14:26
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Pick #5 Most of the mock drafts I have seen had Trout/Acuna/Yelich/Bellinger going 1-4 (which had already been selected). The next two consensus players were Betts and Lindor in some order, and then what I felt was a minor drop off after that. Not knowing which of the two I felt best about, but wanting to be able to make the choice for myself I decided to take the highest available pick at #5.
1.05 - Cody Bellinger, 1B/OF, LAD
I did not expect Bellinger to fall to me, but when Lindor went #4 I was excited to be able to select him. One of a small few 5 category players, with elite production in 4. Even if he doesn't replicate his .406 OBP and .629 SLG, he should be towards the top of the league in both, with 100+ runs and RBI's. Throw in double digits steals, and 1B/OF eligibility and there's a lot to like here. The offense around him has only gotten better with the introduction of Betts (the only other player I considered with this pick).
2.12 - Gleyber Torres, 2B/SS, NYY
I struggled a lot with this pick, and while I'm content with the choice I don't feel great about it. On the positive side, he's only 23, plays on a great team in a hitters ballpark, has 2B/SS eligibility, and is coming off a season with 90+ RBI's and R's w/ a 500+ slg. His OBP leaves a bit to be desired, and there's no speed to speak of. Some of his peripheral stats seem to indicate some regression, which would make this a bad pick, but if he can hold his ratio stats steady he should return value here. I considered taking a SP here, but didn't love any of the options.
3.05 - Max Muncy, 1B/2B/3B, LAD
While Muncy doesn't carry the name recognition of some of the other elite bats available, he's had two consecutive years of 35 HR's with elite ratio stats due to his extremely high walk rate. Needing to buoy up my OBP given the Torres pick in round 2, I felt he was the perfect balance for my team. If nothing else, I have a ton of positional flexibility given that my first three picks all have at least 2 positions, with Muncy being able to slot in at 1B, 2B, or 3B.
4.12 - Blake Snell, SP, TAM
My strategy going into the draft was to use my highest picks to secure elite speed, and power starting pitching. While Bellinger in the first round should give me 12-15 steals, my next two picks don't help me there, and the elite starting pitching options are starting to dry up. Blake Snell comes with some injury risks after only making 23 fairly mediocre starts last season, after pitching to Cy Young level numbers the year prior. He should be entering the season healthy, and if he repeats his 2018 he will be a steal in the 4th round. If he repeats 2019, I'll regret the pick. If he's somewhere in between, he should be a fine anchor of my staff.
5.05 - Aroldis Chapman, RP, NYY
My typical strategy with closers is to take an elite one early. It backfired last year when I grabbed Blake Treinen as the 3rd closer off the board, but figured I'd run it back with Chapman (who was actually the only elite closer last season to return value after Diaz and Treinen blew up). Chapman has had two years in a row of good health, with over 30 saves, and his typical elite K rate. Fingers crossed this year.
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| 10 | GO
ID: 141062421
Thu, Mar 26, 2020, 17:49
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Pick Selection Pick selection made because there were 3 clear tier 1 players… and lesson learned in a previous football league to always at least take 1 off that tier to play it safe. One injury and you get burned between pick selection actually picking the player.
1.02 Yelich, Christian OF MIL I pretty much picked Yelich cause I had Acuna last year and wanted to mix it up. I've never had Trout in any league ever and that streak continues. One day! Steals and good AVG/OBP were a requirement of early round picks.
2.15 Albies, Ozzie 2B ATL Trying to get IF slots covered early while chipping in steals where I can. New source I use is big on Albies this year so at the 30 something pick I'm pleased with him. Usually I take IF with first pick, so already feel like I’m scrambling.
3.02 Corbin, Patrick SP WAS Wanted to lock up good ratios, Ks and W's with a relaible anchor. Happy with Corbin to do that considering the first tier of SP were wiped out by the time I got there.
4.15 Realmuto, J.t. C PHI JT is above and beyond all other catchers so I wanted to have an advantage over everyone else there, getting production where most people have a hole.
5.02 Guerrero Jr., Vladimir 3B TOR Wanted some upside picks in middle rounds and Vlad is the definition of that. First round picks won't win this thing, need to hit some "Home Runs" literally and figurativley in these middle rounds.
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| 11 | Seattle Zen
ID: 301361318
Thu, Mar 26, 2020, 19:01
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Is JT really "above and beyond" all other catchers? Well, in the opinion of the touts for standard 5X5 leagues, yes, he's the consensus number one. But what about the projections? I'm going to use Steamer here because it is generally considered the most "neutral" of projections systems - has the least amount of human intervention.
Steamer
I'm going to list three catchers' Steamer projections for a full 2020 season -
Catcher A .324/.517 66/78/1
Catcher B .329/.478 71/76/6
Catcher C .358/.460 74/73/3
Using the Auction Calculator at FanGraphs, I inputted our league parameters to generate a dollar amount for each of these catchers on a $260 budget.
Catcher A would be worth $17.60
Catcher B would be worth $18.10
Catcher C would be worth $19.60
A = Gary Sanchez
B = JT Realmuto
C = Yasmani Grandall
I disagree that JT is above and beyond in the pre season. He may end up the best catcher in the end, we'll see.
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Post a reply to this message: RATIONALES 1-5 for ESPN AAA 2020
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