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Subject: RATIONALES 6-10 for ESPN AAA 2020
Posted by: Judy
- [30244220] Mon, Mar 09, 2020, 22:14
Keep going.
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| 1 | Seattle Zen
ID: 301361318
Sun, Mar 15, 2020, 10:49
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Nelson doesn’t make it back. Now I scramble to find a bat. I look at Josh Bell and Marcus Semien. I wonder who Toral is going to take. Looking at his roster, I suspect it will be an outfielder. I now start thinking that I want 6.4.84 Eloy Jimenez for his upside. I’m a big fan, think he really figured it out at the end of the year last year and will make giant strides in power. May be light in OBP as he has a fairly low walk rate, but I suspect that he will crush, sending his slugging towards .600 and RBIs to go with that. Doesn’t run. I also like Ramon Laureano, he was a target of mine last year. Was delighted when Toral choose him over Eloy, though the Canadian is putting together a well balanced team. Had Jorge Solar in my queue. Luis Robert is too risky for me, he may put up a great season helping the White Sox make a huge leap this year, he will have to at that price. Loved watching three Twins go back-to-back-to-back Bomba Squad in this round. I am very interested in seeing what Shohei will show us this year. I would love to see him pitch in Safeco. (I refuse to call it T-Mobile Park)
I am not ready to take a closer yet. Want another bat. I have sort of ignored catchers, not done the research yet, I’ve got a bit of love/hate but mostly hate relationship with those tools of ignorance. Rarely does a rationale of mine fail to mention that my first ever RIBC draft pick was of Joe Mauer in the first round of 2010. After Mitch Garver comes off, I look at who is commonly considered the third ranked catcher in 7.13.109 Yasmani Grandall, C, Chi White Sox Wait a minute! He had a 17% walk rate last year? That was second in all of baseball, behind that Trout kid out in California. How did I not notice that? Last year he batted .246 but his OBP was .380! Damn! He also managed 632 plate appearances for a National League team, that’s a ton for a catcher. He is slated to hit clean up for the Pale Hose, Eloy will be knocking him home on the regular, I’m liking this. And it’s not like this was a one time fluke for YG, he has had a walk rate in the teens every year as a pro but one. Hopefully he can be all “set it and forget it” for the whole year. He may lead the team in steals!
I set my sights on Grand Caravan Biggio with my next pick. I am expecting big things from him this year, possibly a better season than his brother Bo Bichette. I was rather upset when Thumper took him, I made an audible groan of disappointment at my office. I guess I will act like a responsible adult and take a closer. I am glad I did because boy howdy, the run was on! I view 8.4.116 Brad Hand, RP, Cle and Ken Giles as interchangeable, I like Hand just a fingernail more… I also think Edwin Diaz will have a great bounceback season, I have one share of him so far this year. Eight closers go off the board before my next pick, so I am grateful that I landed one of few closers the market deems as pretty safe.
Because I missed out on Biggio, I am worried that my MI will be weak. I will have to land a surprisingly profitable second baseman later in the draft or on the waiver wire because the shelves look like our local retailers, empty. I did come into this draft thinking that 9.13.141 Corey Seager, SS, Dodgers might be undervalued. Here’s what Baseball Prospectus said about him in 2016 - “he only needed 27 games to produce nearly two WARP slashing .337/425/561 as a 21 year old. He enters 2016 as the prohibitive ROY favorite.” People didn’t think a 6’4” kid could stick at short, he has “upgraded from great to elite prospect status”. In 2017 they said that he had “lived up to the hype” slashed .307/365/512 scored 105 runs all as a 22 year old. He was taken #23 overall in RIBC in 2017. I bring this up because this guy is turning 26 in April. He’s younger than Bryce Harper. He is not suffering from age decline, he could and maybe should still be improving. He just needs to stay healthy. I like getting the likely six hole hitter on one of the best offenses in the league. He will slot into my MI spot just fine with his contemporary Manny Machado. Mash away, boys.
I see Toral take Amed Rosario with the next pick. I sure hope he let out a howl of discontent when Seager went right before. I took Amed last year and was impressed with his .287 batting average, but he hates to walk and not much power so his .755 OPS is meh. He attempted 29 steals and was thrown out 10 times. He was atop the Mets order because their much better lead off hitter was injured for most of the year. He will probably hit at the bottom of the order and if the Mets were smart, they would pull the Ebrake on his running game. I expect Toral will be disappointed this season.
While I’m looking back at old Baseball Prospectus, I peek over at Corey’s teammate. Here is a summary of their pithy quips: 2015 – Nelson Muntz voice - “HA HA! Look at those stupid Mets, DFA’ing this guy who goes out and slashes 340/404/493. The ‘Obvious Prognosticator’ says he won’t hit like that again, but that’s not bad for a utilityman.” 2016 – He looks like a wildling and set career highs in plate appearances, homers, ISO and slashed 294/370/491. 2017 – Career highs in games played, signs big contract, we won’t call him a utility player anymore 275/339/493. 2018 – Dude is a ginger Animal doppelganger, red headed poster boy for the fly ball revolution. Slashed 322/415/530, more walks than strikeouts. Yes, I have a bit of a thing for 10.4.148 Justin Turner, 3rd, Dodgers. He is great in this format. Since he joined the Dodgers, he has the 20th best wOPA in baseball, just ahead of Mookie Betts, R Acuna, C Yelich, Charlie Blackmon and Jose Altuve. Not bad company, I’d say. He is batting third for the presumptive World Champs, if we ever do get to play baseball in 2020. Getting on base 40% of the times you come to bat is one of the rarest skills in baseball, stay healthy and Cory Seager will knock you home quite a bit, homey. Slump or get hurt, Corey can fill your spot in the three hole. My season is not riding on my tenth round pick though it sure would be nice to do my Nelson “HA HA” voice in my season recap. :)
I’m guessing you missed out on the “gets malignant colon cancer surgically removed” news about Trey Mancini, Val. The longer the break, the better for the Mancini family, here’s to a speedy recovery. I like the Kyle Schwarber pick. I am a big fan of Ryu and think that he will not regress as much as the market has. I might sit him against the Yankees. Tosh will likely crow about what a great pick he was. Last year I traded Adam Eaton to JeffG and he went nuts on his new team. That must have left a good impression so I am not surprised JeffG took him again. Ryan McMahon, good pick, on the smart end of a potential platoon and Bud Black said he wants to get McMahon into 150+ games, so he will fill in here and there. Garrett Hampson, terrible, Blue Hen-type pick. On the idiot end of a platoon. Do you even want many at bats for a guy forecasted to get on base 30% of the time and slug less than .400? He may steal some bases, but you can’t steal first, yet…
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| 2 | JeffG
ID: 44182712
Sun, Mar 15, 2020, 11:07
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6.10 Rhys Hoskins 1B Phi
Though Phillie-phile Judy might grab Rhys right before me. Liked some pitchers here and only have one SP so far, but I expect the one I want next to make it back to me as not likely on radars at this point (Woodruff 7.07 did make it to me). Instead will continue to load up the big gun hitters over position scarcity. Perhaps the CI (like OF) is deeper if I went elsewhere now and wait but Hoskins is a solid power guy who should drive in and score runs, and in this format above average for getting on base.
7.07 Brandon Woodruff SP Mil
Still going to wait a round on a closer, I like this starter. This is the latest I've ever gone in an RIBC without an RP, but at this point with only the top 4 gone, I figured the ones on the bottom of my current 7 man RP queue are no more or less risky than the others, and everyone has them ranked differently anyway. Sure, I could have taken closers Jansen or Hendricks here, but behind them on my RP board - next tier Hand, Taylor, Giles, ... if not then Workman, Diaz, Kimbrel, etc). So went with a SP2 and Woodruff. I'm high on Woodruff this year and chose him over a couple of guys rated over him like Carrasco and Wheeler. Not touching Gray (sorry, bad taste from his short pinstripe stint). Brandon was close to a lights out pitcher possibly on the way for Cy Young votes last year before his July oblique injury. That injury seems to be a thing of the past as he has been healthy this spring. Yes expecting a little regression but a full season should project to 200 Ks, double digit plus wins, and solid mid-3 ERA and a decent SP WHIP (projections over 162 games... I know we'll see less).
8.10 Brandon Workman RP Bos
When I looked for an RP last round I expected many would not be back, had a queue of 2 top RP left, then 3 RP that would be nice, and a couple as fall backs. Those first two groups fell as the run was expected. So one of my fallbacks. Settling happily for Workman. He should start the season as Boston's closer, should help the ratios and strikes out over 1 per inning. Hoping he can grab me the 30+ Saves we need out of our top fantasy reliever, which means I guess I have to root for the Red Sox to win 30+ games this season.... ugh.
9.07 Willson Contreras C ChC
It was pointed out to me I was cornering the market on Brandons my last two picks. But no third Brandon here. I have no 2B yet, and not loving who is here, so instead let me fill another shallow position and grab a catcher. Four backstops are picked already and I feel after Willson there is a decent drop off. Willson should be someone I can plug, play, and walk away and while there are always going to be gems among the rest, he should generate a bit more production than most of the bottom-of-the-order catchers that come in the late rounds.
10.10 Adam Eaton OF Was
While waiting for this pick to come up, after Schwarber, Turner, and Ryu all fell, actually went back and forth for a good hour and flip-flopping on who to pick, Cain, Buxton, McCutchen, Eaton or an RP2, or perhaps grab a second baseman before Sparkyanne takes a 5th one like it was Purell or TP. But out of the group, ultimately went with Eaton. I seem to like hitters this draft with good walk rates for the OBP. In a full season he could have come close to triple-digit RBI and maybe double digit SB. I picked him up in an RIBC AAA trade last year and he single-handedly carried my team offense for the rest of the year. Yikes... right now this guy is my teams best source for steals. I'll be in trouble in this category. Hoping to compensate with all the other offensive stats.
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| 3 | youngroman
ID: 25116273
Sun, Mar 15, 2020, 12:19
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6.07 Luis Robert Moiran, OF, CWS
I am following him closely since I drafted him as a prospect in G20. injuries derailed his 2019, but it seems he is back at full strength this season. He is projected to bat leadoff for the Sox. hopefully he is allowed to excel on the basepaths. otherwise he has the potential to hit for power and is followed in the lineup by players like Anderson, Abreu, Moncada and Eloy Jimenez who all know how to bring home some players.
the only concern I see when looking at his projections is that most of them see his OBP relatively low. he had a value of .381 in the minors, so he can't be that bad.
7.10 Sonny Gray, SP, CIN
I ignored SP for a few rounds now. Not much depth there anymore. I expect lots of closers to go off the board until the end of round 8, so if I want to have one of them I need to pick one at 8.07. I can't wait until 9.10 to get a 2nd starting pitcher because they will have much lower potential then the ones that are available here. now you can still get pitchers with more than a K/IP, this won't be the case in 2 rounds.
the potential options of the long list I made a few rounds back are down to 2 starting pitchers: Gray and Wheeler, with Gray being ranked slightly higher. so I take Gray now with the outside chance of getting Wheeler at 8.07. then it is probably 2 closers in a row as long as there are some left with some sort of job security.
8.07 Chris Sale, SP, BOS
this pick is all about exploiting the potential delay of the season due to Covid-19. taking the timeframe from China, the expected outage will be at least 4 to 6 weeks. The US seems to be in week 2 of that process, which means that this will last until Mid-April. I doubt that the season will start on short notice, so the season will be delayed by at least 1 month, which is almost the timetable of Sale's return.
In addition to that there are further injury concerns and it is unknown if he will continue to perform at an elite level. I thought that I can take the risk at this point. it is the 8th round, 119th pick overall.
now i don't hope that you all load up on closers and I again get only some scrubs that are "good" enough to hold their job for one month only.
update: a few minutes after my pick MLB decided to suspend spring training. I don't know if it still makes sense to draft or if we should suspend it as well.
9.10 Archie Bradley, RP, ARI
there are 2 other managers without a closer and both of them have 2 picks until I am up again. With 4 closers on my short list for these 2 rounds I better take one now, because there is a good chance that none of them will be there at 10.07.
there are multiple criteria to look for in a closer:
- elite ERA / WHIP
- elite K (more than 1K/IP)
- job security = more potential saves
the closers that match all 3 criteria were all gone some time ago, so I am now looking at players where 2 of the 3 criteria match. job security is important, so these players are ranked much higher on my list. elite ERA / WHIP is not available anymore, at least not in combination with job security, so I had to look at stable closers with a good K-rate. The final list included: Bradley, Robles, Kennedy and XXX with Bradley and Robles ahead of the other 2. I felt more comfortable with Bradley, but don't ask me why.
10.07 Hansel Robles, RP, LAA
I was wrong last round. Only one closer got off the board which was not even on my list.
With my 2nd option for 9.10 still available, I did not need to think about further options and take Robles.
in case Robles would have been taken, my remaining queue was: Schwarber, Turner, Franmil Reyes. the first 2 went just before this pick.
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| 4 | Species
SuperDude
ID: 07724916
Wed, Mar 18, 2020, 17:53
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6.06 Josh Bell, 1b, PIT
My list of hopefuls for this turn included Nelson Cruz clearly at the top (and I was pretty close to taking him at 5.11) and Ramon Laureano and both went a few picks in front of me. My backup was to fill my gaping hole at 1b. That left me looking at Bell, Carlos Santana and Rhys Hoskins.
I am a fan of Santana as I rode him to victory in G20 last year. He is always valued in this format for his consistent OBP production. Hoskins, despite his high walk rate, I just do not trust due to his anemic (for a power hitter) Statcast profile.
Bell stood out, but I did not ignore his poor second half. His BABIP really plummeted so I am hoping he was just a victim of bad luck. His StatCast profile looked darker red than coronavirus concentrations in Italy, so I went with him.
7.11 Giancarlo Stanton, OF, NYY
I had Cavan Biggio at the top of my queue for this pick all night. He is a beast for OBP leagues with steals and upside up the wazoo.
Then I went to the Kings vs. Pelicans game to see Zion Williams put down a can of whoop-ass onto the Kings.....until the NBA season was canceled and the game, originally supposed to go on, got canceled before tipoff. It didn't take a genius to realize that the MLB season was going to start late......
....which made Stanton a no-brainer pick here. The day before the pick he took live batting practice, hitting moonshots over the wall in Tampa. If the season was going to be delayed a few weeks (an optimistic suggestion at the time I made the pick), Stanton would have time to heal and be ready for the season. While he retains injury risk, at pick 107 that risk is baked into the cost.
8.06 Ken Giles, RP, TOR
I left my closer 'strategy' completely fluid going into this draft. Honestly I felt there were only 6 or 7 that were any decent that I would want to even target. As the draft unfolded, I did have Giles as the last of a tier of closers that I felt were safe. Giles was incredible last year, highlighted by a ridiculous 14 K/9. He won't do that again, but his FIP and xFIP are very supportive over his entire career that he is basically a 3.00 ERA type of pitcher. Good enough for me.
After missing out on Biggio, I would have targeted Scott Kingery sometime soon, but not here and sadly he went soon thereafter. The other closer I would have considered was Edwin Diaz.
9.11 Gavin Lux, 2b, LAD
As Seattle Zen has noted, I have taken some risks in this draft and Lux is one of them. I was amongst a handful of teams without a 2b, and after missing on Biggio and seeing Kingery and Escobar drafted I didn't want to miss out. Lux is only a rookie and may be on a short leash for the league leading Dodgers considering the veterans on the team who can play 2b. But I was intrigued by the upside of power, speed and ratios so I went for it.
10.06 Elvis Andrus, SS, TEX
I always despise ratio-killers like Andrus, but those 25-30 steals that he typically provides like clockwork were desperately needed, and with a pretty stout ratio basis between Bregman, Rendon, Meadows, Bell and Stanton I can afford it. This fills my MI spot but he was basically the best SB guy I felt strong about.
I did give very serious consideration to securing a 2nd reasonably reliable closer in Hansel Robles, who went next to youngroman.
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| 5 | Judy
ID: 282442111
Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 12:46
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6.09. TOMMY EDMAN 2B/3B STL (8.07/8.01)
I felt in needed another INF here and he plays both the CI and MI slots. The main stat I wanted from him was SB, projected to be about 25. He was the #8 2B (that’s where I put him) in our draft. Don’t tell him, but I really wanted Villar for SB but he went at 3.12!
Let me check his other stats for you: 80 R and respectable but not spectacular .340 OBP/.451 SLG. Might have grabbed him a bit too soon...?
7.08. KENLEY JANSEN RP LAD (7.08/5.12)
My save totals also tanked last year as my RP stank. I think I did anticipate a “run” on RP with this pick. Ten (yes, 10) RP went off the board before I would have had my next pick.
Great job, ME!
He was our #5 RP and #6 on my cheat sheet. Looking for 35 saves, with a nice ERA/WHIP of 3.11/1.02.
And he pitches for the Dodgers for Pete’s sake! He should have plenty of opportunities.
8.09. SCOTT KINGERY 3B/OF PHL (9.08/9.13)
Here I am filling out my INF and OF since he can play either. Frankly I am looking for more SB (hopefully around 20). He was the #13 3B taken and you guys really cleaned out the category before I got there...thanks a bunch. Clearly you did not respect him! His other stats are modest, ~ 80 R/RBI, OBP/SLG .318/.466.
I did need a 3B and I thought he was the best one left, plus he is a Phillie. #3 on my team. I think he will have a break out year..🤞 I see the other leagues grabbed him in round 9.
9.08. DANNY SANTANA OF/1B. TEX. (9.13/9.15)
Tada. Got a note from Toral that he had wanted both Kingery and Santana. Too late. Again trying to pad my SB stats (20 expected). Those should lead to 100 R. Plus his INF/OF eligibility helps a ton. He can hit the HR ball so his SLG is decent (.480). OBP is not his strength. But I am happy with his other categories. Looks like other managers in Yahoo and bigs thought the same.
10.09. WILL SMITH C LAD (10.09/12.15)
A lot of managers wait after the clearly top C go off the board, but I do not like to do that if I see a guy who can do the job.
Every team needs a catcher. I had wanted Realmuto, but he went really early by GO at 4.15. Wow! Will was our #6 and #5 on my cheat sheet. This will be his first full year in the bigs. I expect ~ 60 R/RBI which is awesome for a C who won’t play everyday and he has power for a SLG near .500. Plus he plays for the Dodgers and they are loaded!
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| 6 | GoatLocker
ID: 492542212
Sun, Mar 22, 2020, 13:54
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6.05 Jorge Soler OF KC
So, here we are in round 6 and I have already drafted a SS/1B/2B/OF/SP. Knew I was looking for another bat and OF was a good spot to go. Hoping to see numbers close to last years. 95 runs, 117 RBI, 3 SB(obviously didn't draft him for these), OBP .354, SLG .569 (not near the 4 batters I got in the first 5, but still not horrible.) A case of rounding things out since 84 players were already gone when I made this pick. Time to start looking and taking some risks.
7.12 Taylor Rodgers RP MIN
Felt I needed to go to a closer here vice waiting 8 picks to find one. And if I didn't like who was there, it would be 22 picks before it got back to me. If I didn't say it earlier, I hate this slot. I actually like him to beat last years numbers. 2 W, 30 SV, ERA 2.61, WHIP 1.00. And he was actually in 60 games last year, so the same number or more could impact his numbers.
8.05 Carlos Carrasco SP CLE
Needed another starter and really didn't feel like waiting 22 picks to see who might be there. Might be a little bit early, but hope he bounces back to the type of numbers he put up in both 17 (18 wins) and 18 (17 wins). Expect him to still be the #3 pitcher in the order. His other numbers were way out of line with the 2 earlier years. His Ks were 45% less than his norm, His ERA was 2 points higher, and his WHIP was .2 higher.
9.12 Yuli Gurriel 3B HOU
Even though he will play more games at 1B, he still had enough to qualify for 3B. Was surprised to see that he was still available here and didn't want to hope that he would be available 8 turns from now. I really like his numbers in this format for this late in the draft. 85 Runs, 104 RBI, 5 SB(not why he's drafted), .343 OBP, and .884 SLG.
10.05 Lance Lynn SP TEX
Thought he had a good season last year and was surprised to see he had made it to me on the short end. Had thought about him at 9.12, but felt the need to fill 3B and see what happened pitching wise. 16 W, 246 K, 0 SV(who cares), .367 ERA, .122 WHIP. Hope his ERA and WHIP are a little better, but other numbers are good. Now to see where I go 22 slots later.
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| 7 | Jaydog
ID: 350128
Mon, Mar 23, 2020, 14:41
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6.12 - Tyler Glasnow, SP, TAM
A bit of a risky pick here, but Glasnow has the stuff to be a fantasy ace. Prior to his May injury last season, he was pitching like it but then missed most of the season. All reports trend towards him being fully healthy, and fingers crossed he can rekindle his early season form. Didn't plan on picking a 2nd SP so early, especially a 2nd SP from the same team as my first (TB), but thought the upside in Glasnow's arm made the risk worth it.
7.05 - Andrew Benintendi, OF, BOS
After whiffing my intended strategy to pick up steals early, I decided I should devote this pick to securing whatever I could find. While there were a few single category speedsters available, I thought Benintendi had the best shot of providing multi-category production. Reports out of Boston indicate that he should take over the leadoff spot from the departed Betts, which should give him plenty of run scoring opportunities in front of Bogaerts, Devers, and JD Martinez, and hopefully give him more of a green light than he's had in the past. Hoping for 20 steals, but even if he doesn't get there I think 90+ runs with decent ratio's should return value with this pick.
8.12 - Nick Castellanos, OF, CIN
Given my dearth of speed, I had Cavan Biggio all queued up for this pick, but he went off the board. Should have taken him above Benintendi, and almost did... oh well. Without any speed on the board that I thought warranted an 8th round selection, I decided to continue piling up counting stats. Castellanos won't help (but won't hurt) in OBP, but should offer above average production in R/RBI and SLG. He moves from neutral to pitchers parks (in Chicago and Detroit) to a hitters heaven in Cincinnati and will hit in the meat of the lineup. He's traditionally been a doubles machine, and hope the more hitter friendly park will turn some of those doubles into HR's to only boost his power stats. Not a "sexy" pick, but should give me some nice consistent production.
9.05 - Michael Brantley, OF, HOU
My plan with this pick was to take whatever top tier closer was left out of Kimbrell, Iglesias, or Nick Anderson. When I took Castellanos in the 8th, I did so fully expecting one of those closers to make it back to me. Of course, all three left the board. Not loving any of the next tier of closers, I again decided to make an unsexy, but steady outfield selection. Brantley is another 3-4 category producer (everything but speed) who has strung together a nice stretch of consistent seasons. He's now on the wrong side of 30, but has never really relied on his speed, so hoping his decline is slower than most. If he can repeat his 2019 I'll be in great shape in my OF.
10.12 - Ian Kennedy, RP, KC
Having taken Chapman in the 5th, I thought I afforded myself the luxury of waiting a bit for my 2nd closer, but it seemed they were flying off the board quicker than I expected. Having missed out on a closer I liked in the prior round, I figured I couldn't want any longer and grabbed Kennedy. I don't love the player, but he should have a fairly stable hold on the job, and performed decently well last season.
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| 8 | GO
ID: 141062421
Thu, Mar 26, 2020, 17:50
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6.15 Berrios, Jose SP MIN Berrios as a 2nd SP to anchor this staff I'm pretty pleased with. Fosten would be pleased as he tells me he is a top ten SP despite being available 100 picks into the draft
7.02 Ohtani [[ P/OF ]], Shohei UTL LAA Fun pick with SP/UT eligibilty and with the delay to the season should get a "full" season of IP in this abbreviated year which could be huge.
8.15 Kimbrel, Craig RP CHC Hate closers, but to get a reasonably solid one this late I'm happy. Ratios aren't what they used to be but if he pitches ok the job is comfortably his.
9.02 Fried, Max SP ATL 17 game winner and on a ton of sleeper lists this year should bode well for 3rd SP. Ok K's with great ground ball rate.
10.15 Lamet, Dinelson SP SDG Lamet the lottery ticket… I like the SP's a full year after Tommy John surgery. Lets see if that’s right.
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