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Subject: RATIONALES 11-15 for ESPN AAA 2020 Posted by: Judy - [30244220] Mon, Mar 09, 2020, 22:15 Reminder that these are voluntary.... But good practice in case you make it to RIBC!!! | |||||||
| 1 | JeffG ID: 44182712 Tue, Mar 17, 2020, 12:43 |
11.07 Byron Buxton OF Min Probably did not need a fourth outfielder this soon, but wanted to address the team need for a steals guy. Was a toss up for me here between Buxton and Cain. Buxton would have started the season on the IL, but now gets a few more weeks/months to heal, boy I hope there is baseball soon. Still possible he still won't be ready for whenever we start, but as of now they keep pushing back the projected season start date. Buxton is OBP is terrible but I have that covered so far with my lineup. Over a full season projected to get two dozen or so steals.... which I need.  12.10 Kolton Wong 2B StL Would have taken an RP2 here if Species did not grab Kela. Not worth the risk at 12 with anyone else I see in the closer pool. I still have no 2B and four other managers are in the same boat. There are 5 managers total who only have 1 MI at present, so each round I would expect less to choose from. I don't love this pick because I feel there is more a deep floor with Wong than high ceiling, but probably the best of the rest. Sure, potential lead off hitter who could steal 20 bases (over 162 games) and does not hurt the OBP. At this point they all hurt the SLG. I only have 2SP as well, could use another here, but lets fill one need at a time. Hope I did not make a Wong decision.  13.07 Marcus Stroman SP NYM So many ways to go with this, but time for an SP3. Since SP seem to go less deep these days, I may need one more than I usually draft so trying to get one from this relative ADP to keep my pitching staff from being to low-pick heavy. I had McCullers queued here but Twilson just grabbed him with me on deck. Stroman is a good alternative here. A few years ago he looked on the cusp of a breakout, but settled in to a middle-to-back-of-the-rotation guy. Just looking for servicable performance across the board and hopefully the occasional blow up games are coverered by the occasional quality starts, and maybe a few extra wins with a Mets team that should be competitive. #LFGM  14.10 Will Smith RP Atl Since I missed the RP boat (deliberately) and do not have a front line closer, I wanted to add another source of saves, albeit Smith may be someone more likely to be in a set up or committee role. He's one of this years top non-closer reliever with a great strike out rate and ratios. I've seen projections where he is expected to have more saves than Melancon for the Braves, but I drafted Will expecting that not to be the case, but with the projections I've seen for Melancon, seems like the best next-man-up right now.  15.07 Khris Davis DH Oak Another of my best-available picks instaed of slotting in positional needs. Does not have the positional flexibility sure, but I just feel like Khris has dropped far enough. Although light in OBP, he is a productive bat and should contribute in the counting stats projected around 80+ R and 90+ RBI over 162 games. His SLG is decent. Who needs steals? It looks like I am shooting for 16/16/16/16/1 on the offensive rantings, at least off the draft to date.  | ||||||
| 2 | Seattle Zen ID: 301361318 Wed, Mar 18, 2020, 10:37 |
I don’t have a first or second baseman yet. Three arms and seven bats on my team right now. I have a couple of firstbasemen in mind, no second baggers appeal to me right here. I’m always open to picking a starter or closer I think has fallen down the board. As of right now, my Q has Edwin Encarncion and Luke Voit at the top. Arms that appeal are Kyle Hendricks, Kenta Maeda, Odorizzi, and Joe Musgrove. 11.13.173 Edwin Encarnacion, 1B, Pale Hose I need to go get a stuffed parrot from the toy store, not the pet store, to put on my shoulder for my home run trot. I now have the Sox’s four, five and six hitters, as a Twins fan, this is distressing. I’m a big believer in EE, he’s underrated and mashes taters regardless of ball park. I was crushed when K Maeda came off the board next. The Twins made a great trade this off season when they upgraded their rotation by sending Brutal Gatoraide to the Dodgers for Maedasan. Nice pick, Toral. Back to the board. Hendricks went the pick before EE, I would have taken him because the high K rate of Cole and Castillo would mask Kyle’s low rate, his ratios are top shelf. I went with 12.4.180 David Price, SP, Dodgers on a hunch, how’s that for advanced metric-based analysis? The hunch is that he will enjoy pitching on the West Coast on a team built to win 100+ games with decent defense and one of the best pitching home parks in baseball. He gets to face the Giants quite a bit, he’s projected to have a sub 4 ERA and WHIP in the 1 teens and strike out 10 batters per nine. That should lead to a bunch of wins. Can’t Help IT…. The Price Is Right! Still don’t like any of the second basemen. I want Luke Voit, he can hit in my Utility slot. He should get to hit in a prime lineup spot while Judge and Stanton nurse one injury after another. Blue Hen takes him, damn. Maybe I should pick up a second closer. I have Sean Doolittle atop the remaining RP. Took him last year late in the draft as everyone was convinced he would loose his job. Kept the job and the Nats won the World Series, just like Everyone imagined :0 I doubt he can do it again, Jdog designated himself as the guy who will find out. And while I say I don’t like any of the keystoners, that doesn’t mean I want the few left to all be taken. K Wong can steal bases, he may turn a profit. I really like Luis Arrarez for the Twins IRL, when was the last time that the computers forecast a rookie to win the batting title? He isn’t great in this format, his OB% is not nearly as impressive as his BA, doesn’t steal or hit for power. He may score a lot of runs as a member of the Bomba Squad or he could sputter and easily be benched for another Spanish speaking glove. I didn’t come into this targeting 13.13.205 Lordes Gurriel Jr., OF, Blue Jays at all. Sometimes a guy drops so far that you suddenly take an interest. He’s slated to bat third for the Jays. How is it that he is Lordes Jr. while Yuleski is his older brother? He was taken at #146 in our Yahoo neighboring draft, average pick of ~150 in other formats. He has a very low walk rate so his projected OB% is just a hair shy of 300, but he can crush, so his value derives from SLG RBI and Runs. Does not steal bases. He was thriving last year as a 25 year old, an 860 OPS until he was injured. Hoping he makes an excellent third outfielder who crushes 30 Perm Dudes leading to a +500 SLG with all the fixings. A round later Tosh picks up Bryan Reynolds, stunt double for the Deadpool movies. Never heard of him, looked at his projections, damn, not bad. Lordy, you had better step up this season, Junior, or Bee Ryan will take your job! Judy, you realize that Victor REYES is not ROBLES, yes? No one, and I mean even his own family, is taking Reyes in the 14th round. He would still be there pretending that he is a major league outfielder on a pretend major league team in the 24th. Cesar Hernandez comes off the board. Had him last year and recency bias requires me to point out that his OB% the past four years are 371/373/356/ and 333 to go with nine steals and I was disappointed. Hoping that Jose Ramirez slides back to second base sometime this season and the Tribe bring someone in at Third. 14.4.212 Joe Odorizzi, SP, Minnesota is now my fourth starter. I like my starting four. All of them strike out more than a batter an inning. Plenty of wins and great ratios and I’m all set. His fastball speed went up two MPH in 2019 and I believe that led to his improved performance. Pitching for a large free agent contract, go get em! I’ve been liking most of the picks Species has made recently, except for Kyle Tucker. Keone Kela is an alumnus of my parents’ high school. He’s a scrappy, bull headed punk, my kind of closer. In your top ten picks you have taken quite a few chances, Species, with Stanton, Lux, and Clevenger. I really like Musgrove, Luke Weaver, and A Garcia. I wonder if Yasil Puig will sign in Japan, I think he would be a huge hit over there. I was thinking about Krush Davis at pick #212, he was a bargain for JeffG, though his SLG is quite a bit less impressive than his 40HRs is in a standard format. Sean Manaea was a great pick at #233. Matt Carpenter has been a favorite of mine since way back, speaking of “back”… OUCH. Goat, I would be surprised if you do not cut Matt. Maybe you could ask a certain Jewish Carpenter to lay hands upon Matt and resurrect him from the dead... Alex Verdugo is one of the players who benefits from the delay in the start of the season, great pick up Roman the Younger. Judy, what is it with you reaching for outfielders no one else wants to draft even in the 24th round? Clint Frazier is viable in a AL Only/Redheads Only league, of which I am not aware we are a part of. Who would be the first overall pick in a Redheads/AL Only league? I can’t find the hair color column on the ESPN Player Page. Time to put second base to bed. 15.13.237 Rougned Odor, 2B, Rangers fit into my lineup and 2020 philosophy just fine. His over/under for OB% is .300 but he will crush so he will contribute in SLG and RBI. Will he steal bases? He gets thrown out a lot. He has stolen 14/15/12/11 the past four years. Maybe what is most remarkable about Rougned is that he is only 26 years old. With a name you think would be found in Beowulf, perhaps he is a vampire who is actually 500+ years old. I said I would have to hope to land a late round hope and a prayer second baseman and Odor is a total wildcard. I have now drafted Odors consecutively. Should I reflect that in my team name? The MalODORous? Hodor and the White Walkers? | ||||||
| 3 | youngroman ID: 25116273 Thu, Mar 19, 2020, 13:59 |
11.10 Franmil Reyes, OF/DH, CLE after 4 pitchers in a row it was time to continue filling my hitting void. I already thought about Reyes with my last pick, so when he was still there now I had to take him. If he really brings the talent to the dish that most experts expect he will be of great value at this pick. He was doing great in spring training, while it lasted, so I hope he continues doing great when the season finally starts at some point in May or June. 12.07 James Paxton, SP, NYY the 2nd starting pitcher i am taking because of Corona. Paxton is expected to be back until the end of May. This is also the most likely potential start of the season. Without the 6 weeks of the season removed from the potential stats of other available pitchers he is by far the best option out there: more than 1K/IP, solid ERA, WHIP around 1.2, playing for the Yankees. I don't see anything against picking Paxton at this point. 13.10 Christian Walker, 1B, ARI my pitching looks fine for now, so I look at my offense holes: C, 2B, MI, CI, OF. I don't like catchers and OF are still plenty available. This is not the case at 2B/MI or CI. Since I ignored 2B until now I finally looked at which kind of player I am willing to take. I did not like anyone until at least round 15. Segura has an outside chance of gaining eligibility there at some point, bit this may take longer than expected and if he really is the starting 3B, he won't see that many chances at 2B. and out of the CI's I prefer other players more. CI's I considered: Walker, Eric Hosmer, Yandy Diaz, Brian Anderson. Walker showed promising stats last season. some models even show him having a lot of bad luck, so even more can be expected this season. Hosmer can be all-star caliber, or a total bust. A risk I would take at this point. Diaz and Anderson were there sitting in my queue with the hope that I would not need them. I would have preferred Willie Calhoun over them, whom I now target in round 14. 14.07 Willie Calhoun, OF, TEX Managers are panic shopping 2B's, like toilet paper. I stay calm, at least 1 meter away from all these poor options, and pick the really important stuff (aka. non 2B-players) in this tough times. At some point, whether it is round 15 or 20 there will be some 2B's left that are worth getting drafted in that slot. at worst I end up with someone like Robinson Cano, Tommy LaStella, #undrafted# or even Roughned Odor. speaking about Corona. Calhoun is the next victim. The earliest start date of the season, as of today, is Mid-May. Calhoun should be back on the field by then. based on projections created before his injury he was the top hitter left on the board. since the injury can be ignored, I can safely pick him. He had a great 2019 and almost all experts believe that he will take the next step and do even better in 2020. since I am no expert I tend to follow the majority in such matters. 15.10 Alex Verdugo, OF, BOS I keep repeating myself: Corona. I am now in week 4 of my Corona-regimen (working from home, mainly staying at home) and based on local news and favorable projection models it will last for at least 4 more weeks here in Austria. stay safe! and at home! Verdugo appears near the top of my list with the expectation that he misses the first month of the season. Since the season will start late this year, I don't care if he gets healthy in April or May. I only care that he will be healthy when teams continue their "spring" training sometime in late May. That is possible for Verdugo. I don't know if Corona has the same opinion or if it wants to stay on the field for longer than May. | ||||||
| 4 | Species SuperDude ID: 07724916 Thu, Mar 19, 2020, 17:54 |
11.11 Julio Urias, SP, LAD My queue since 10.06 included several SB options since my own SB pick of Andrus: Cain (due for a comeback), Buxton and Mercado all disappeared. I had been playing chicken with the world on when to draft Ryan McMahon who went at 10.13 and had long had Franmil Reyes on my radar but categorically he was a poor fit. As the severity of the likely delay to the MLB season continued to unfold, the concept that many of the rookie, previously injured or otherwise innings-limited SP should GAIN in value was materializing. Guys like Luzardo, Puk, Urias and others who exhibit strong ratios and K/9 but were projected for 120-130 innings rightfully should be worth more now. Picking on the next pick after mine, Kyle Hendricks, has a portion of his value predicated upon the value of his ratios relative to his volume of innings. His K/9 weakness gets partially offset by decent ratios over a higher innings projection. Urias projects to have similar or better ratios with a higher K/9 but with 50-70 less innings. Have a 120 game season and Urias is materially more valuable IMO. I really liked David Price as well. 12.06 Keone Kela, RP, PIT Meh. I would have probably taken David Price if he fell, but Zen got him 2 picks earlier. I also had David Dahl in my general queue but he was sniped by GL. The decision came down to Kela as some sort of kinda-sorta-closer or a SP. I had my eye on a fairly big queue that included Paxton, Boyd, Tanaka, Ray and McCullers (who fits my Julio Urias rationale to a T). In the end I basically decided on Kela, figuring one this fairly long list of SP would make it to round 13. Apparently not. 13.11 Kyle Tucker, OF, HOU - In 2018, a 21 year old Tucker made it to AAA and put up a .332/.400/.590 slash line with 24 bombs and 20 SB in 100 games. - In 2019, a 22 year old Tucker repeated AAA and put up a .266/.354/.555 line with 34 HR and 30 SB in 125 games. He added 4 HR and 5 SB in MLB over 22 games while not embarrassing himself with a .856 OPS. Figuring out why this guy has to fight with Josh Reddick over playing time is beyond me. Whispers of an attitude problem with Hinch or even with Luhnow are out there to potentially explain it. Perhaps a clean slate with Dusty Baker will give this stud a chance at regular at bats. We are at pick 203 at this point and his FantasyPros ADP is 154. Yeah this may be early but I would rather take a shot on grabbing this year's Pete Alonso or Keston Hiura over a stiff like, say, Eric Hosmer. 14.06 Joe Musgrove, SP, PIT Musgrove has the stuff to be much better than the 214th pick in this draft. Freed from the analytics-ignoring pitching coach Ray Searage, Musgrove has already commented about his excitement to embrace high end analytics and commented specifically about his love of the high 4-seam fastball over the outdated 2-seam sinker -- two pitches which StatCast freaks say are two of the most oppositely effective pitches in baseball. With today's launch angle madness, going high in the zone with the 4-seam fastball creates results. Musgrove's secondary pitches are there already. I would have given very serious consideration to Justin Upton if he has survived the turn. Great pick by Valkyrie there - he would have made good Tucker insurance. Other guys in my queue I liked that went later were Will Smith (ATL), Bryan Reynolds and Daniel Murphy. 15.11 Luke Weaver, SP, ARI As the impact of COVID-19 on the American landscape started wrecking even more havoc on the stock markets and the economy, my professional responsibilities became more urgent. In response I started getting behind on my tracking and basically have resorted to using an ADP list I had prepared with a bunch of guys I had highlighted as sleepers or whose value is increased in this format. I am not going by "chalk", so I am still referencing the month's worth of articles and podcasts I have accessed to base my decisions. But it is not the same as if this situation was not at hand. Now I have a convenient excuse ;) But at this point in the draft, if ADP aligns with the set of projections I am using and my recollection of guys I like and guys I don't from all of the podcast content I have listened to, I will go with that player. That is basically what I did here with Weaver. Great analysis, huh? | ||||||
| 5 | Judy ID: 282442111 Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 13:20 |
This is the part of the draft where I start messing around. Most of the players I have heard of are long gone, so I started looking a team’s starting lineups and trying to find hidden gems. Hmmm. Well my 14, 15, 17 picks haven’t been drafted by anyone yet! And #13 and 16 by just yahoo (maybe bigs are slower.) So those guys are definitely hidden. Haven’t really studied my picks above 18 yet and I hardly knew any of them either. I did have a reason for them, but I would need to look it up! 11.08. ANDREW HEANEY SP LAA (13.07/14.12) Time to grab some more SP. but by the time it got to me, you guys had taken most of the ones I wanted. 40 guys you took!!! Sheesh. Andrew is #67 on my cheat sheet. I was looking for K (only ~160/ugh) and 10 W. His ERA and WHIP do not project well but this will be his first full season after TJ surgery. I think I made a mistake with this pick...will need to find a gem somewhere else. The price you pay when you wait, but I do like my 1-10 picks... 12.09. GERMAN MARQUEZ SP COL (12.05/13.11) Ok so my pick of him is somewhat close to the other leagues... German is #57 on my cheat sheet. He is decent when away from Coors. Mostly I was looking for K here, 180+. His other stats are not great. The run on SP cleaned out my list... this could be another loser pick. Continuing with my “who the heck are these guys?l theme. 13.08. GARRETT RICHARDS SP SD (18.02/not yet) Looking just for counting K here, hoping for north of 160. Maybe toss in some wins (10?). Beginning to think my ERA and WHIP scores are gonna suck this year... Garrett was #65 on my cheat sheet. All I can say here is that Aaron better have an awesome year to cancel out these guys. Yikes. 14.09. VICTOR REYES OF DET (not yet/not yet) Yikes. No one else wants this dude — or is it dud...this is definitely a flyer pick. Perhaps all I will get are 20 SB, with maybe 50+ R/RBI. #65 on my OF list, and we need to draft 56 to fill the starting lineups, so maybe he’s not that bad — or maybe he is...projected to be 4 OF. 15.08. CLINT FRAZIER OF NYY (not yet/not yet) This is a pick for the future, hopefully the second half of the season — what season... he as having a hot spring. Is the NYY WOW prospect who should make the club, but with the season delay he might begin in AAA. See I told you I was having a lousy draft after #10...yikes. | ||||||
| 6 | Jaydog ID: 350128 Mon, Mar 23, 2020, 14:56 |
11.05 - Hunter Dozier, 3B. KC I had my eye on Dozier for about 4 rounds now. If he repeats his 2019, he has 7th/8th round value. Given his limited track record of success, I decided to go with more consistent options, but here in the 11th round I felt the risk of Dozier was worth it. Good chance he's gives me above average R/RBI/SLG, while not hurting my OBP. 3B/OF eligibility doesn't hurt either. 12.12 - Kevin Newman, SS, PIT Where I sit in the draft, I only have two players that even have a shot at double digit steals, and neither is projected to steal more than 20. I considered just punting the category all together, but decided if I could make up a little ground here and there I may be able to move out of the category cellar. I wasn't ready to grab a single category speedster yet, but Newman projects to steal 15+ bases, with a shot at getting into the 20's. He's reported to also have the inside track on hitting leadoff for Pittsburgh. While the Pirates don't have a great offense by any means, that should provide him ample running and run scoring opportunities, with ratio's that shouldn't hurt me from a middle infielder. This pick has a chance to bust, but there's upside for Newman to give me above average production in a few categories that I need some help in. 13.05 - Sean Doolittle, RP, WAS My general draft strategy is to try and exit the draft with three closers, waiting as long as I am comfortable grabbing the last of the three. Where we sit in round 13, there were only a few closers left and when Jimenez went off the board I decided to jump on Doolittle. Doolittle performed well in the role last year, but faltered down the stretch a bit and ended up conceding post season saves to Daniel Hudson, but reports are that he will get the role back to start the season. Washington should win plenty of games this season, and hopefully Doolittle will save a good number of them. 14.12 - Carson Kelly, C, ARI We are at the point in the draft where I try to just grab players I like with upside, and try not to worry too much about over drafting someone. Carson Kelly was someone I had my eye on entering the draft, and with a few catches flying off the board in the prior rounds I decided to jump in. While splitting the catching duties last season, Kelly hit 18 HR's, with 350/478 ratios. He should have the starting job secured going into this season, and if he can keep his ratios stable over a higher number of games, there's a good chance he'll end up being a top 5 catcher. 15.05 - Mike Foltynewicz, SP, ATL I normally wait until the late rounds to fill out my pitching staff, and after taking two SP's in rounds 4 and 6, I hadn't taken another until Folty. Folty battled injuries in 2019, but was amazing in 2018 pitching to a sub 3 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, and 200+ strikeouts. I'll hope that last years lack of production was injury related, and get a bounce back performance this year. Even if he doesn't bounce all of the way back to 2018, its reasonable to expect that he returns, or exceed's 15th round value as my 3rd SP. | ||||||
| 7 | GO ID: 141062421 Thu, Mar 26, 2020, 17:50 |
11.02 Mccutchen, Andrew OF PHI I'm hurting for IF and flex guys… so of course I take McCutchen. I loved what he was doing last season before the injury and I think he's a perfect fit in this format. Will figure out IF later I guess. 12.15 Davis, J.d. OF NYM Somebody got like a 1st round prospet pick for this dude in G20 so I don't know, figured he was pretty good. Flex player helps with my lack of positional flexibility. 13.02 Jimenez, Joe RP DET Not a terrible 2nd closer, despite being on a terrible team. Under contract so shouldn't necessarily be a trade candidate if does ok again 14.15 Swanson, Dansby SS ATL Dansby was pretty damn good last year before injury and I was in desperate need for a SS. Almost took him 2 rounds ago but rolled the dice based on ADP numbers it was still early. Hope he can repeat. 15.02 Madrigal, Nick 2B CWS Looking for upside IF guys and he's high on the list of odds for Rookie of the Year which seemed good enough to take a flyer on now. | ||||||
| 8 | GoatLocker ID: 492542212 Fri, Mar 27, 2020, 18:53 |
11.12 - Kyle Hendricks, SP, CHC So, here I think I'm getting my 4th starter, only to now know that my first pitcher drafted had Tommy John surgery yesterday. Will be a wait and see with him, but looks like he will be the number 3 starter for the Cubs. Hard to tell now how things will work out. 12.05 - David Dahl, OF, COL He only played 100 games last year and did play all three positions at one time or another. Do expect that he will be the starting Center Fielder this year and anticipated he would get the bulk of the starts there. Didn't draft him for SBs, but do expect him to contribute and be helpful in the other 4 categories. 13.12 - Luis Arraez, MI, MIN He had a good 92 games with the Twins last year after they brought him up. Do expect him to play 95% or more of this seasons games for them and expect that his numbers will only improve from last year. His weak areas will be SB and SLG, but won't be a killer and he will do good in the other 3. 14.05 - Wilson Ramos, C, NYM Didn't want to completely blow off catcher, so with Wilson still available, thought this was probably the best time to take him since my next pick is once again 22 picks away. Not at the top in any categories, but not as bad as most of the rest of the catchers that are left are. 15.12 - Matt Carpenter, CI, STL Looks like he will play 3B the bulk of the season which allows me to use him for the CI spot. Numbers and avgs aren't great, but will still work for this late in draft and filling this position. | ||||||
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