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0 Subject: RATIONALES 16-20 for ESPN AAA 2020

Posted by: Judy
- [30244220] Mon, Mar 09, 2020, 22:16

Go!
1JeffG
      ID: 44182712
      Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 00:54
16.10 Miguel Andujar 3B DH NYY
Looking for my 'best available' CI or SP or MI here, and after Tosh took Belt and Zen took Puk a few picks ago, Miggy bubbled to the top of my list. Wait! What? He is only UTL eligible in ESPN leagues. My bad. I just took DH Khris Davis last round, so now have two with no flexibility. Andujar's role will be primarily the Yankee DH this season but he should see time at 3B, LF, and perhaps 1B, it may take a while to get position eligible, but then again the way Yankees go down you never know (certainly not hoping for that). Before missing almost all of last year, Miggy was an extra base machine in his rookie-of-the-year season... well in my mind he was ROY. Convince me otherwise. In a loaded lineup should see plenty of opportunities to drive in and score runs. I'll make this work, or maybe have a good trade chip when he or Davis exceed their 15th/16th round status.


17.07 Kevin Gausman SP SF
Only 3 managers have three or less SP, me included. With starters as a whole going less deep into games now, it may take more starters on your fantasy roster than usual to approach the league innings cap for the season. In the past I've gotten by with five starters, and the last few years even that was not enough and I resorted to streaming starts most of September, at the expense of my ratios, to at least come close. So 67 starters now drafted in a league we will likely see close to 100 taken. Getting my SP4 here makes sense. Every available SP at this point has question marks, no exception with Gausman. They all have ERA and WHIP projections over 4 and 1.2. High for me with ERA. Maybe everyone was stealing signs when these guys threw. Just going with someone who is on the lower side of 4.xx and 1.2x I hope. Kevin has a K rate that is close to 1 per inning. Hoping the more RHP friendly confines of San Francisco and more games vs the rest of the NL West, puts his Camden Yards gopher ball years more in the rear view mirror. I've given up on believing any wins projections, it is a crapshoot with starters now going shorter into games and RP who now have to go 3 batters or end an inning in relief, more leads will be blown. Everyone overuses 'bounceback candidate', but I'm sticking with that description here for Gausman.


18.10 Renato Nunez 1B Bal
Ok, trying for a CI again (see 16.10). This time I double and triple checked to make sure Renato has 1B eligibility on ESPN since he will primarily be the Oriole DH. FUN FACT - this is the first Oriole bat who will be in the opening day lineup chosen in our draft. Step right up folks - A whole O's lineup to draft. As a matter of fact... No SP from Baltimore drafted yet either.... Grab an Oriole now, avoid the rush! Just grabbing an every day cleanup hitter to fill my CI spot. The Orioles are not going to get shut out every day, so he should be good for the counting stats with every day at bats. Hurts the OBP, ok-ish for SLG. Has pop. Over a full season last year hit 30 HR and drove in 90.


19.07 Jonathon Schoop 2B Det
Filling in the dreaded MI position. Looked at another SP here, Archer was the preference if I went that way, but let him go and maybe having a little buyers remorse. Schoop is going to get regular and consistent playing time in Detroit and is actually projected to be slotted fifth in the Tigers lineup. Fifth!?! Not asking for a lot but he should help the counting stats well for someone this deep in the draft and I feel better relative to other middle infielders this deep.


20.10 Kole Calhoun OF Ari
Every SP left has downside. Sure there are going to be hidden gems, but all with risk so will get one next round. Getting an OF5. With 2 DH only players already on my roster, only 4 OF and 2CI with no position flexible players to play with, should get someone who can get fantasy OF starts on my team on others off days. Nothing much to see here, Kole is an every day player with average ratios and average projections for R and RBI.
2Species
      SuperDude
      ID: 07724916
      Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 17:51
16.06 Avisail Garcia, OF, MIL

I see a lot of opportunity in the Milwaukee lineup for big production. The problem is that there are 3 players in line for at bats in RF and at 1b - Garcia, Smoak and Braun. I planned on targeting them all, and with daily lineup changes I could just swap out whoever wasn't playing and always have 2 guys active. I did not draft Braun but I did get Garcia and Smoak.

With Cain, Yelich and Hiura there are going to be a lot of guys on base to drive in. I think the Brewers would rotate a lot of guys around the diamond so I am hoping for the equivalent of what 450 AB would look like from Garcia.

17.11 Starlin Castro, 2b, WSH

I needed some Lux insurance and depth in the MI and jumped on Castro here. Did you realize that some outlets have him batting THIRD in the mighty Nationals lineup? If you are hitting after Turner and Eaton but ahead of Juan Soto, that is a GOOD freakin' spot to be. True, his OBP sucks and his SLG is mediocre, but what do you expect at pick 267. We need counting stats too and his spot in the lineup will provide opportunities.

18.06 Justin Smoak, 1b, MIL

I don't need his 38 homer 2017 to make this pick work. I would gladly take his .242/.350/.457 from 2018 with 450AB at this spot. Smoak is likely to his 5th vs. RHP for MIL behind Cain, Yelich and Hiura. A great spot to be, albeit with a couple of days off a week that will require some daily roster management.

I liked the picks of Gregory Polanco and Dylan Carlson over this turn.

19.11 Wil Myers, OF, SD

He was hot to start the spring and comes with a strong pedigree. But make no mistake, this is a dart throw and we will see what happens. I had Alex Wood in my queue and kicked myself for letting him go in the 18th.

20.06 Brett Gardner, OF, NYY

Gardner is always criminially underrated and at this point in the draft you are either buying a regular player with a solid floor or you are buying lottery tickets. I bought a basic floor.

Rolling the dice on a Sam Hilliard might have been better. J.A. Happ was also on my list.
3Seattle Zen
      ID: 301361318
      Sun, Mar 22, 2020, 12:27
I’m getting lots of time to research my picks because, maybe you haven’t heard, there’s some national “emergency” that is a Democrat hoax of somesort. It’s letting me stay home from work, so I’m cool. I’m leaning towards a starting pitcher, the market and the experts are pointing me towards Joey Lucchessi, Caleb Smith and 16.4.244 A.J. Puk, SP, Oaktown He had Tommy John surgery back in the days when we were flush with surgical masks and gowns, elective surgery was a thing and it was safe to breathe in hospitals. He recovered in time for a few appearances out of the pen late last year and his stuff was smokin! The A’s said that they weren’t going to have a hard inning cap on him this year, but he wasn’t going to threaten 180 innings. This was reflected in his price, but when the delayed season was upon us, his 120 to 140 innings might well be the 2020 normal. I like the prospects of Lucchessi, that is simply not a San Diego name, he should be pitching in Boston, Philly or NY. But I don’t see what’s the appeal of C Smith. He hasn’t done anything well except his high K rate. Not every strikeout guy takes the next step and gets his ERA below four or his WHIP below 1.30 and he’s playing for the Marlins so wins won’t be plentiful and they will likely let him go back out there in the fifth inning after giving up 7 ER because, hell, it’s not like they care what happens. Maybe I’m wrong, we’ll see.

I wrote this sentence last year in my rationales - I was hoping Brandon Belt would still be here. I have typed that sentence in the last six season's draft rationale and every year there is a point in the season that I say, "man, I'm glad I didn't end up with Belt after all." I'm convinced that the only thing hold Belt back from that All Star appearance he deserves is one of you fifteen have foiled my chance of getting him the year he breaks out. It's your fault this year, mmkulka.

In no way was I at all interested in B Belt, he’s your problem this year, Tosh. We are now at that point in the draft that the Nelson voice is inappropriate, is it really a stretch for anyone in the 17th round? But that still won’t stop me from teasing Judy about Mike Tauchman. I had to search images of him to see if he was a redhead, looks like it’s “negative”.

I had decided I wanted another reliever and there are still a few anointed closers left out there. I like Brandon Kintzler, he closed for the Twins a few years back. I was driving east as this pick was approaching and I had a flashback – I was driving to my local fantasy league draft when I pulled off the road and picked Tony Watson. My memory was that he stunk that year and I regretted the pick. Well, he was one of the three I am thinking about, so I cross him off the list. Today I went back and realized that, yes, I did pull off the road in 2017 to choose a closer, but it was KRod I picked and Tony Watson was taken in the next round, but yeah, they both sucked. I’m not sure who is going to close for the Mariners and I don’t want Wade Davis.

But should I go reliever here or outfielder? I have three outfielders at this point, what are Toral, Val and Thumper going to do around the turn? There are two OF who I love right now, David Peralta and Robert Grichuk, but Toral only has three OF, Val has four and Thumper only has two, I figure they may take an OF. Because I have so many outfielders high on my list and 17.13.269 Mychal Givens, RP, O’s is the closer on the O’s and he’s not a bad pitcher. He is in the same boat as he was last year, the closer on a terrible team that everyone assumes will be traded at some point. He wasn’t traded last year and he’s actually a good arm.

I was right to think that there would be outfielders taken around the turn but now we are at the point of the draft where managers’ lists seriously diverge. Thumper takes Brandon Nimmo, a guy with a great OBP who has been forgotten because he got hurt last year. He has a career 15% walk rate. In 2018 he displayed some power but he had an irregular heartbeat diagnosed this Spring and the Mets OF is crowded, don’t know what to make of him. Gregory Polanco is so tantalizing, when is this Darryl Strawberry lookalike going to be consistent? He stole 27 bases in 2015 but only provided a .701 OPS. Hit 22 homers in 2016 putting up 22/79/86/17 .783 OPS leading him to be drafted pretty damn high in 2017. He crushed the hopes of those who drafted him, though, when he only had 411 plate appearances, 8 steals and a putrid .696 OPS. Best season of his life in 2018 – 23/75/81/12 .340/.499. Last year, hurt again, he stunk. He is only 28, and seems to thrive in even numbered years…

I simply don’t get Toral’s next pick and I am eagerly awaiting reading the rationale behind it. And why did you like this pick, Species? There is no rhyme or reason for it in a redraft, this ain't a dynasty league. Dylan Carlson is the Cards fourth or fifth outfielder. He may be better than Dexter Fowler, but they sure are not paying him like it. Dylan is projected to get 200~250 at bats this year. Yeah, yeah, draft talent and the at bats will come, but with so many guaranteed starters out there at this point, I’m surprised. I have seen a list of Top Outfielders that similarly lists Dylan around this point, but usually those lists are in flux during the Spring and as Spring Training games get played, decisions by managers are revealed leading to big swings on those lists. Maybe if Dylan was anointed as the leadoff hitter by whoever in the hell manages the Cardinals and they traded Fowler (and maybe a couple of other Ofers) then his stock would rise to this point, but without Spring Training, I have to think he will start in the minors and stay there for a while. No doubt that he hit the cover off the ball in AA and his cup of coffee in AAA.

Both 18.4.276 David Peralta, OF, Arizona and Grichuk survive the turn. I am a huge fan of Grichuk, serious power, going to hit third in a potent Blue Jay lineup, but I already have a couple of low OBP, high power guys. I LOVE Peralta, his hit tool is so strong. Career slash lines of .290/.346./478. Two seasons of wRC+ over 130. Injured his shoulder last year making a diving catch in the outfield, so he goes and dives head first again in Spring Training to make a catch, success! He is slated to hit clean up for the DBacks, stay healthy and he should have a career high in RBI.

And, it didn’t matter as I selected 19.13.301 Randal Grichuk, OF, National Team of Canada next. I was the first team to take him in RIBC last season in the 15th round. He had a career high in homers, runs and RBI but career lows in OBP, SLG, isolated power, and wOBA, so the shine on him has faded somewhat. I am hoping for an improvement, mere regression to his career .776 OPS while batting third for the Jays would provide profit. He will start in my UTIL slot.

Who in the hell is 20.4.308 Adam Frazier, 2B, Pirates? He’s slated to bat third for the Bucs. He’s 28, smaller than me, a career .342 OBP, scored 80 runs last year. I’m running Rougned out at the keystone, it would be wise to have a decent backup plan. He tells the beat reporter that he was hurt at the beginning of the year, broken finger in Spring Training and a dislocated shoulder on Opening Day. His OPS was far superior in the second half, let’s build on that.

It will be interesting when (if) baseball resumes what the league and the players’ association decide to do with service time for rookies. Will teams still need to stash their rookies in the minors for a month before calling them up in order to keep them under team control for an additional year? Will the league let teams start the season with rookies without “penalty”? Before Spring Training was called off, Nate Pearson was told he wouldn’t be called up until mid season. He’s baseball’s second or third most electric rookie arm. Who knows when Pearson will see The Bigs now. And does it matter as Toral drafted some guy named Pearson Nate?
4youngroman
      ID: 25116273
      Sun, Mar 22, 2020, 13:35
16.07 Jon Gray, SP, COL
Odor and Cano went at 2B. Out of these 2 I only considered Cano for being my 2B, but at the earliest with this pick. It did not happen and all other options on my list are not worth to be taken this early. I may regret that, but since all of you have 2B filled now, you may look to fill other needs than MI/backup-2B with your next 2 picks.

I remember last year being the first season where teams struggled to make 1350 IP. This is due to the change in the game that starting pitchers get pulled earlier and more and more teams using an opener, which makes the 2nd pitcher in that game, even if he pitches innings like a starter much less worth because of the missing wins. so I felt that serviceable SP's are worth much more until our IP limit gets reduced, because I don't think that the game will change.

of the SP's I considered Gray, Puk, Caleb Smith and DeSclafani. my preferred choice survived my queue. Gray had a 3.84 ERA with 1 K/IP until he got injured last year. you can't expect much more from a starter in round 16.

17.10 Caleb Smith, SP, MIA
I keep picking starting pitchers until I believe that no valuable is left. It was either him or DeSclafani.

Smith's stats last year: more than 1K/IP, good WHIP, improvable ERA. The opposite of my last pick Jon Gray. I guess he will do similar this year.

I think my quest for starting pitching comes to an end with this pick. the intention is to add some hitting depth (incl. starting 2B) in the next few rounds with the occasional RP if I see someone of value, which may not happen because there is no new info out of spring training.

note after my pick: Species takes Castro at 17.11 which was one of my potential starting 2B. air is really getting thin now, but there are still options that might do good when given the playing time. I am especially speaking of you Tommy La Stella.

18.07 T La Stella, 2B/3B, LAA
Halleluja! There was finally a 2B in my queue that was worth to be drafted. He was actually the only 2B I considered at this point. I created a 1-man queue last night and this 1 man survived.

La Stella is simply average, but you can't expect much more from the 28th 2B eligibile player that got drafted. projections vary on him, but he is still the starting 2B on a loaded Angels team. consensus stats are .330 OBP, .420 SLG, with 60-70 R/RBI's, highly depending on playing time. you can do worse at 2B.

19.10 Anthony DeSclafani, SP, CIN
A few hours ago Chris Sale opted for TJS and will be out for the season and some. Not a bad decision for him in these uncertain times, but a bad decision for my team.

I initially had Schoop in my 1-man queue and hoped he would survive to go back-to-back with 2B, but he got taken at 19.07. Did not consider any other hitter to fill my MI-hole, so when Sale was gone for the season I immediately thought that I need another SP to target my IP numbers. since I already considered DeSclafani at 16.07 and 17.10 and he was still out there, I looked if there is something wrong with him, but no it isn't. he has an average ADP of around 260 right now, so getting him at 298 seems like ok value. I just hope that the improvements he promised a few weeks ago show during this season, so that he can maintain his sub 4.00 ERA and 1.2 WHIP while striking out one batter every inning, without the luck he had last season according to some statistics.

20.07 Willy Adames, SS, TB
I believe that I finished picking SP's. It is not wise to pick RP's here because you pick them mostly for saves potential, but since spring training is suspended we don't get new data points in closer battles or battles for the 8th inning guy. right now you can only pick RP's based on K-rate, but since all of my pitchers force more than 1 K/IP I don't feel the need to dive into that pool for this pick.

on the hitting side I have a hole at MI and C. I will likely get my catcher in the last round, so it is either a MI or a 1st bat off my bench. I again looked at the pool of available MI's, like I did the last 10 rounds and the options are not getting better in relation to the draft round. I see 2 options with a relatively secure starting job, as of today, that should not completely kill my ratios: Willy Adames and Hanser Alberto. both can be streaky, but I see more upside in Adames.

looking at Adames stats of last season I notice that he had a bad April and July (0.250 OBP, 0.320 SLG) and very good May, June, August and September with an OBP around .350 and a SLG around .460. if he can show this kind of production in all months he is a steal.
5Jaydog
      ID: 350128
      Mon, Mar 23, 2020, 15:09
16.12 - Dylan Bundy, SP, LAA
I had my eye on Bundy since the 12th round, but at each passing pick decided the risk wasn't worth the reward. Here in the 16th round I think it is. He's pitched his entire career in the bandbox that is Camden Yards where he's historically been decimated by the home run ball. Even when giving up lots of HR's, his strikeout totals have been solid. I'm hoping a change of scenery with the Angels will help to suppress his gopher ball tendencies a bit. If he can keep the ball in the yard, his ERA should come down a bit, and his strikeout potential gives him some nice upside as a 4th starter for me.

17.05 - Daniel Hudson, RP, WAS
When I took Doolittle in the 14th round, I did so knowing that I'd likely have to use an upcoming pick on his handcuff Hudson. Hudson should put up decent numbers for me while he waits for a potential Doolittle implosion. If the implosion never comes, that'd be ideal, but if Doolittle comes out of the gate slow, like he finished 2019, I'll have Hudson ready to step in.

18.12 - Jon Berti, 3B, MIA
I'll admit, I had never heard of Berti until I was snooping around the RIBC draft and noticed that he was taken in the 10th round. When I saw him go off the board that high in the top league, I added him to my queue, and decided this was the right round to jump in. He doesn't seem to have a regular position in the lineup, but there's some reporting that he may see 4-5 starts a week all over the diamond. In only 73 games last season, he swiped 17 bags while putting up a respectable .343 OBP. If he can find 4-5 starts a week, there's 30 steal potential which is a category I need desperate help in.

19.05 - Wade Davis, RP, COL
When you have the chance to draft the consensus Worst Closer in Baseball, you have to do it. I'll focus more on the "closer" word in that sentence than "worst", and take any saves he can give me early in the season before his likely implosion. The Rockies coaching staff is on record saying that he has the closing job, for how long is anyone's guess. If he can give me even 3-5 saves before he gets the boot, I figure that's worthy of a 19th round selection.

20.12 - Mike Yastrzemski, OF, SF
After a May callup, followed by some growing pains, Yaz had a stellar second half. His second half splits saw him with .354/.562 splits, with 16 HR, 44 runs, and 39 rbi's. If he can keep that up over a full season, that's a really useful outfielder I just picked up in the 20th round!
6GO
      ID: 141062421
      Thu, Mar 26, 2020, 17:51
16.15 Vogelbach, Daniel 1B SEA So I'm this far along and still don't have a 1B! Know nothing about Vogelbach other than he seems to have a steady job and has ok OBP and a little pop.
17.02 Oberg, Scott RP COL I actually didn't realized Wade Davis wasn't even picked yet. But I would bet a million Oberg gets more saves than Davis this year who is a washed up shell of himself. I would have taken both of them but oh well.
18.15 Shaw, Travis 2B TOR Still hunting for flex, IF and a little bit of pop. Shaw checks those boxes and proven he can have productive years.
19.02 Yarbrough, Ryan SP TAM Doesn't always start but racks up some great IP and W's in that middle relief long role. If I set and forget he'll be useful.
20.15 Betances, Dellin RP NYM I think Betances might just steal the closer gig…. In that insane Mets bullpen
7 GoatLocker
      ID: 492542212
      Sat, Mar 28, 2020, 10:58
16.05 - Ryan Braun, OF, MIL
Well, appears to be a chance this is another lost pick. Starting to see a lot saying he probably will not be starting at 1st base. Only time will tell.

17.12 - Joey Lucchesi, SP, SDG
Well, a homer pick with a bit of hope that he becomes what he always has appeared he could be. If not, then he won't last long and will go away. Another case of only time will tell.

18.05 - Niko Goodrum, MI, DET
Could fill utility slot, or bench for when needed. Will depend on others I get and who performs / gives me what I need stat wise.

19.12 - Miles Mikolas, SP STL
He now has an arm problem. Guess I don't need to worry if the 18 or 19 Mikolas shows up.

20.05 - Buster Posey, C/1B, SFG
With him still there at this point in time and I can fill C, 1B, CI, Util with him, was worth the pick up to be able to use when required and I still feel he has a little bit left to be able to contribute.
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