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Subject: RATIONALES 21-25 for ESPN AAA 2020
Posted by: Judy
- [30244220] Mon, Mar 09, 2020, 22:16
Keep going, even if you didn’t know their names before you drafted them... |
| 1 | JeffG
ID: 44182712
Mon, Mar 23, 2020, 16:16
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21.07 Reynaldo Lopez SP CWS
After looking at a whole bunch of SP and RP, I had to just stop and pick one. There are some big K rate or next up type RP to choose from, and considered Chad Green, Emilio Pagan, among others but there are a bunch. (Both immediately went after my pick). Seems to be the time everyone grabs one, I see Dellin, Lugo, Pressley, May taken this round so far. Instead choosing my SP5. Going with Hamels, or Quintana, or Evoldi or Cueto are options. I feel they are all on the downswing. So picking Lopez. He had decent second half and a very inconsistent year but everything I read regarding his 2020 fantasy prospects uses the word 'dart throw'. Maybe there is a chance he may become someone worth rostering the whole year, and if not no big, I chase the next thing in the free agent pool. Lopez does have a good K rate if nothing else.
22.10 Matt Barnes RP Bos
Yes, this is definitely the time when everyone is getting their MR. During my last pick i thought about several. Perhaps I could have grabbed a Chad Green type and my last round SP pick would have likely bounced back here, and if not, no big thing. Now instead I am left with way fewer MR options and figured it is a good time to handcuff my RP1 Brandon Workman. Barnes was a late target once I grabbed Workman early in this draft as he would be the next man up for Red Sox saves, plus if nothing else he has an outragous strike out rate, over 13.5 per 9.
23.07 Zack Britton RP NYY
Trying to fill my MR. This dude was the elite of the elite a few years ago, shows you how up-and-down relievers are year-to-year. His projections for this year according to everyone seems to indicate the decline will continue, perhaps escalate. Taking a flyer and making a home-team pick. Zack should hold the 8th inning job for the Yankees, and maybe gets an occasional save chance, or perhas blow a hold or two and vulure a win. Chad Green's role with the Yankees seems to be more the high-leverage middle inning guy. I had Dustin May and Ty Buttrey also queued here if Zack with a K was taken. It is round 23 so I can pull the trigger on someone else once we see how things develop.
24.10 Ty Buttrey RP LAA
Another next-man-up possibility for saves. It is Hansel Robles job to lose with the Angels and he could very easily be the guy all season, then this is an available roster spot for my next move.
25.07 Andrelton Simmons SS LAA
Backup to my SS and MI. At pick 391 you get what you pay for. Should be available in the free agent pool for you all about a week into the season.
Well, this has been a very sureal fantasy baseball draft, and I thank you all for the two-week distraction. We started this draft while they were still playing spring training games, and end it with the season, and the country/planet, under much uncertainty as we try to do our part to slow the spread of the virus. My family and I are all staying home and social distancing, and are all safe and healthy... I hope the same is true for all of you and yours. I look forward to the return to normalcy, whenever it is. See you all on the other side.
Please save a life and stay home. Act as though you have the virus and protect others. Act as though everyone you know has it and protect yourself
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| 2 | youngroman
ID: 25116273
Mon, Mar 23, 2020, 17:10
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21.10 Hanser Alberto, 2B/3B, BAL
I looked at many hitters at the top of various projections and almost all of them have question-marks, either regarding their starting job, a bad spring or injury concerns. Since I had troubles picking MI-type players and there is still 1 guy left from that list, I better take him now to have all my positions covered with at least 1 backup:
1B: Abreu + Walker
2B: La Stella + Alberto
3B: Devers + La Stella + Alberto
SS: Story + Adames
OF: Gallo + Robert + Reyes + Calhoun + Verdugo
Alberto can pop some, but he is mostly average at his position, which is not that bad, as long as he plays almost everyday and I can insert him into my starting lineup if necessary.
from now on I can gamble on some players, even if they don't end up with the job they need to be valuable. and yes: I still need a catcher.
22.07 Domingo Santana, OF, CLE
I researched lots of players with an ADP of 350 and less and did not like many of them. A lot of issues with playing time, poor spring play or demotion to AAA. My top options were Haniger and Hays. Both were taken earlier this round emptying my queue. Of all the players left that I was able to do a background check I liked Santana the most. It seems like he will get lots of playing time at DH and only occasionally at OF. I don't know how often he may sit because DH is also an option for Carlos Santana. It all depends on how Domingo starts his season. If he keeps staying cold as he did in spring training he may sit more, otherwise he can be a fine source of everything.
23.10 Corey Knebel, RP, MIL
filter all available pitchers by ERA, WHIP, K-rate and at least 1 projected save and Knebel is on top of the list despite being injured and projected to miss the first 2 months of the season. since these 2 months won't be part the season he should be ready by opening day. He should set up Josh Hader and since Hader seems to get used a lot and with a condensed schedule being talked about, a reliever of his type might be more valuable this season.
#2 was David Robertson, who will end up in my queue for a future pick.
24.07 Tom Murphy, C, SEA
we need a catcher and it was either d'Arnaud or Murphy this late in the draft. Last season Murphy was very very good against lefties (.347/.408/.695) and below average against righties (211/.252/.401). Too bad 2/3 of the pitchers are righties. It is believed that he will get around 60% of the starts. Since you can plan ahead with him starting against lefties almost all the time, I can decide in advance if I want to get a backup for his off-day. And there is also the chance that he acts as a pinch hitter in games he does not start. after all he has a career SLG of .493, so he can't be that bad against righties.
25.10 David Robertson, RP, PHI
he is still being considered injured and depending on when the season really starts he may not be ready. But as soon as he is ready I expect him to be his old self posting great numbers for ERA/WHIP and K-rate and may even get the occasional save.
post draft notes
The more I think about it, the more I fear that we won't see a season at all this year. Here in Europe we are a few weeks ahead in terms of "Corona experience" and there is no end expected until at least June, which seems like an optimistic time-frame. More likely it will be August/September which translates to September/October in the US. by then training activity may start, so we may see a 1/2 month regular season (incl. more double-headers with expanded rosters) and some playoffs. I don't think that they want to play in December, because players also need to prepare for 2021.
The same time-frames may also apply to other sports (soccer in Europe, NBA, NHL, motor sports). So I predict that all these seasons will either be called off or end up in a super-season spanning 2 calendar years. looks like a nightmare for player, TV and sponsor contracts. a lot if cash will get burned for nothing. the question is how many teams / organizations can survive that, there are probably some teams available for "cheap" in 2021.
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| 3 | Seattle Zen
ID: 301361318
Tue, Mar 24, 2020, 00:16
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Draft season 2017 – Married. Wife somewhat understanding my fantasy baseball drafting rituals though not really ever understanding the game itself as she grew up in Poland. Having a daughter playing softball since the age of four, she is slowly picking up the rules if not the nuances or poetry.
Draft season 2018 – Girlfriend #1. Filing for divorce, still living in house with Wife. GF thinks my yellow legal pad with tiny digits filing the pages is cute but odd. Entire books filed with statistics is head scratching.
Draft season 2019 – Girlfriend #3. My divorce finalized, girlfriend is the midst of hers. She’s more than happy to let me have my have my diversion from reality but not at all interested in how it works. We actually split up and get back together during Spring Training.
Draft season 2020 – Girlfriend #5. Met a month ago, back when you could go on dates at a restaurant and order drinks. You could get within 6 feet of women you find hot. They played baseball in Arizona and Florida. Yeah, a bunch of old people died in a nursing home less than 80 miles away, but right now no one is dwelling on that. Today we hunker down with my baseball books and yellow pad of paper. She is intrigued by this Byzantine ritual I am participating in. Thinks it’s cute that I write up a story for each player I draft. Wants to go to Mariner games with me when we emerge from this disaster. I need to find a copy of Love in the Time of Cholera and perhaps read The Decameron, 100 tales told by seven women and three men in social isolation outside of Florence waiting out the Black Plague. It would be nice if Draft season 2021 did not follow the pattern…
I have five outfielders, none of which are youngsters who may start in the minors. Speaking of, Jo Adell is a stud, but is that the appropriate term for the first female Major League player ever? I have had him for a couple of seasons on my ottoneu team and I drafted him on another team. As I wondered about Nate Pearson, I don’t know how this delayed start to the season will affect minor league call ups, so I decided I will pass on Ms. Jo, but she’s looking like a bargain way the hell down here. I’m generally loath to fill one of our precious bench spots with a minor leaguer, but if you look at RIBC history over the years, a lot of teams win because they take fliers on little starlets like Jo who produce when they do get their call. And Jo simply couldn’t suffer the injury that befell 21.13.333 Mitch Haniger, OF, Emerald City Mariners last year, the one that makes everyone but Sparkyanne cover their abdomen and curl up into the fetal position. What really happens when you shatter a testicle? Did he get a prosthetic one placed in there like a breast cancer survivor? Then he gets hernia surgery in February. Dude, enough with the lower extremity damage! He was pretty awesome in 2017-2018, OBP over 350 each year and .490 slugging. He also had a 10%+ walk rate and career high isolated power last year but his BABIP was pathetic so his production suffered. He is 29 years old, his projections are great, his availability after hernia surgery was eight weeks, so he should be able to be cleared by Opening Day. Mitch, you are my first bat off the bench.
Jo gets asked to dance by Val, they make a cute couple. My hidden gem of Rich Hill gets taken by Val, too, damn it! No more waiting, it’s time to take my ABSOLUTE MUST HAVE.
TAY OH SCAR!
say it again… Tay OH scar!
I have the entire Blue Jay outfield. I think Tay oh Scar will be this year’s Ramon Lauriano, a five category surprise outfielder. Baseball Prospectus loves this guy, predicts a 303 OB%/481 SLG 33 homers, 77 runs, 91 RBI and 16 steals! Love it. Seventh outfielder. Maybe MLB will schedule Blue Jay games on every off day for the rest of the league and I can trot out my three outfielding Jays to the delight of everyone but the fifteen of you.
The picks taken here that I like are Domingo Santana, Austin Riley, Carter Kieboom, Mike Da Snitch Fiers, Todd Frazier, and I was counting on Matt Shoemaker slipping to the bitter end. He is a great pitcher when he actually pitches. Won’t be surprised at all if he ends the season on a lot of “How I won my fantasy league” write ups.
Mattie Magill, he lived on a hill, his father got drunk and left him no will so, he went down, down to Tangy Town, People down there really like to get it on!
23.13.365 Matt Magill, RP, Mariners. What, more Mariners than Twins? It’s unclear who will be the M’s closer. No Spring Training, no news on that Very Important Issue. A potential third closer taken at pick #365, that’s pretty unusal. When Magill went from the Twins to the M’s, he stopped walking guys and his numbers seriously improved. Keep it up, Maggie!
With The Cobbler gone, I focus on the 21st Century Luis Tiant - 24.4.372 Johnny Cueto, SP, City By The Bay Giants. I love watching Cueto pitch. He will be in a great pitching park, who knows what he has left in the tank. I might have a quick trigger finger if his dreadlocks do not please the Baseball Jah. Did you know he once had a sub three FIP season where he won 18 games and had a 5 WAR for the Giants? I expect more from him this season, MUCH MORE. ;)
I like a bunch of the players taken here at the end – Ty Buttrey (sounds like a Paula Dean product you can find in the refrigerated aisle of your supermarket), Dustin May, Jordan Montgomery, Jose Alvarado, Stanek, A Simmons, Bummer Dude, but none of them have hit 50 HR’s in a season. None of them are the highest paid first baseman in the AL East. He earned this wage from hard work and excellent results on the field and NOTHING will stop him from doing it again and again, except, maybe, the season being canceled because American is not ready for the PAIN 23.13.397 Crush Davis, BASHER, Da Oh’s will be inflicting on baseballs! Batting clean up, with a reputation more sterling than The Mighty Casey, this Paul Bunyan with a bat will be the Comeback Player of The Year because when your slash line of .179/276/326 is better than the previous year’s .168/243/296, well, there IS hope. I’m thinking he is looking at a repeat of his 2013 season, something around his 53 taters, 370/634, 103 runs 138 RBI, but let’s be real, he won’t steal four bases again. That would be a decent return for #397. Toral may say that it is passive aggressive to say things like, “I can’t believe Player X was still available when it was my turn...” Well, I’m far more openly aggressive - “Y’all are morons for letting the GREAT Chris Davis fall into the lap of the obvious eventual champion”.
Now, WTF am I supposed to do with the draft over? Well, The Australian Football League is still scheduling games played in empty stadiums. It’s a gorgeous sport, check it out on FS1.
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| 4 | Jaydog
ID: 350128
Tue, Mar 24, 2020, 13:04
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21.05 - Stephen Matz, SP, NYM
Time to start rounding out my staff. I generally avoid Mets players like the plague due to their propensity to double burn me (both by tanking my favorite team and my fantasy team, see Robby Cano last year). While I've avoided them so far, I couldn't pass up Matz as my 4th starter. While Matz hasn't exactly blossomed as I thought he would after his playoff/WS run in 2015, he's turned into a usable back of the rotation starter. He's been fairly healthy, strikes out guys at a decent clip, and puts up respectable ratios that won't hurt me. He struggles to pitch deep into games, which will likely cost him some decisions, but should provide meaningful innings. Hopefully the Mets bullpen doesn't cost him as many wins as it did last season. Doesn't appear to be much upside with Matz, but pending injury he feels like as stable a 4th starter as I could ask for.
22.12 - John Means, SP, BAL
Means was the anchor of my RIBC staff last season, which tells you more about my staff than it does Means. That said, Means put up 11 wins on a putrid team, with a 3.6 ERA and 1.16 WHIP, both decent numbers. Wont help me much with strikeouts, but if he can keep his ratios in check I'll no doubt get some useful innings out of my 5th starter. If Means has to anchor my staff again this year... whoa nellie.
23.05 - Luis Urias, 2B, MIL
Had Sean Murphy queued up as my backup catcher, but davelipman beat me to it... always frustrating when you get sniped so late in the draft. As a fallback plan I selected Urias, who I coincidentally picked up in the late rounds last year as well. While Urias won the starting job with SD out of camp, a horrific start got him demoted in May. When he came back up in Sept, he hit to .370/.414 splits to finish out the year. Without a spot in SD, he was shipped to Milwaukee, where he doesn't have a starting spot locked up, but should get plenty of opportunities as a super sub. Hopefully this year, he will realize the upside that I drafted him for last year, a high OBP MI with growing power. He's only 22, so plenty of room for growth.
24.12 - Francisco Mejia, C, SD
Ughh... sniped in back to back rounds. I had hoped to draft Britton to handcuff Chapman with this pick but couldn't pull the trigger in earlier rounds. While his handcuff status seems clear, his stats have been trending downwards in recent years and I wasn't confident enough that he wouldn't be a drain while I wanted for him to potentially close. Jeffg made my selection a bit easier when he nabbed him. Shifting gears, I decided to take another young catcher with upside to make up what I hope will be a productive tandem (with C. Kelly). Mejia's bat has never been a question. His poor defense shouldn't affect his fantasy production, unless he can't make it onto the field. The Padres hopefully can find a way to make it work... If so, I have the potential to have a pretty potent catching pair without having to invest much draft capital. Hopefully at least one of Kelly/Mejia pan out... fingers crossed.
25.05 - Ryne Stanek, RP, MIA
With my "Mr. Irrelevant" pick I threw a dart and picked out Stanek. He's one of the closer options for Miami in the event that Kintzler can't hold onto the job, which wouldn't surprise anyone. If Stanek gets a crack at it early, he's got the big arm to stick for a while. If he doesn't get a crack at it, he may provide some useful high K innings while I wait it out. If neither pans out, see ya!
This draft was a great distraction from Covid, and was a nice way to inject sports into an otherwise sports-less existence. Hope everyone is staying safe out there, look forward to starting the season if and whenever that happens!
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| 5 | GO
ID: 141062421
Thu, Mar 26, 2020, 17:51
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21.02 Pressly, Ryan RP HOU Pressly hopefully repeats those elite ratios and seems like clear handcuff.
22.15 Karinchak, James RP CLE BIG strikeout guy… worth a shot
23.02 Riley, Austin OF ATL Another flex, IF lottery ticket… I think they give him every chance to take the 3B job. When in doubt I was taking multi-position dudes now.
24.15 Kiermaier, Kevin OF TAM Not a bad OF backup to float in and out of the lineup, can steal and bag and hit a HR just need to keep an eye on wacky lineups.
25.02 Rodgers, Brendan 2B COL Just like earlier, looking for upside IF guys and he's high on the list of odds for Rookie of the Year which seemed good enough to take a flyer on now.
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| 6 | Species
SuperDude
ID: 07724916
Fri, Mar 27, 2020, 15:33
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21.11 Omar Narvaez, C, MIL
I had Narvaez as a sleeper catcher all preseason. Still, for every 3rd sleeper article there is also a bust article for him. I should have waited on C as was my original plan. I too had Rich Hill in my mind but not high enough as he went after me. Jo Adell would have also been on my list at the time, however subsequently I think a delayed season is WORSE for him in terms of relative playing time.
22.06 Carter Kieboom, SS/3B, WAS
Making up for missing out on Adell by jumping on Kieboom here. I admit to really dismissing him in G20 due to his total flop in his cup of coffee last year. However, his numbers in the minors were BEASTLY and he was named the favorite to win the 3b job. Multi-position eligibility, particularly having MI and CI, can be valuable.
23.11 Yoenis Cespedes, OF, NYM
Saw some news blurb that he was running at something close to full speed and bought a lottery ticket that would be infinitely more valuable than the stiffs we are taking shots at during this point of the draft. Easy cut if he is still weeks or months away when the season starts.
24.06 Mackenzie Gore, SP, SD
There were some rumors that Gore could have broken camp with the Padres with a good spring. They did this with Chris Paddack last year to mostly stellar results. Their rotation Garrett Richards, a sleeper I loved but the dude just can't stay healthy and Joey Lucchesi who throws two pitches and lives off of deception. Gore comfortably is more skilled and talented than Lucchesi and Zach Davies, so it is worth another lottery ticket in the 24th round to get top 40 production......or cut bait and grab someone else.
25.11 Anibal Sanchez, SP, WAS
Meh. I had like 25 pitchers in my queue to consider. Took a boring floor guy.
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| 7 | GoatLocker
ID: 492542212
Mon, Mar 30, 2020, 14:33
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Going to take time to finish this up.
21.12 Marco Gonzales, SP, SEA
Well, still needed starting pitching, so time to take a deep dive. Not the best numbers in the world, but did win 16 last season and by everything I can find, looks like he will be the #1 starter. K, W, ERA, WHIP have all been close to the same for both 18 and 19, so, guess it becomes wait and see.
22.05 Pablo Lopez, SP, MIA
Another case of I don't know. Not much out there and still needed another starter. Is does show up as the number 3 starter for them. Maybe (I hope), season #3 will be when you finally figures it out and does what Miami is expecting from him.
23.12 Jesse Winker, OF, CIN
Played in 113 games last season at all 3 OF slots. 72 of those were in LF, and that is probably where he will be most of the time this season. Looking at him to fill a slot if others get hurt and hopefully he will continue to improve.
24.05 Jurickson Profar, 2B SDG
Don't know what his PT will look like with Dozier there. If it takes a hit, will dump and look for whatever else is out there. Just looking at a potential starter in MI when I need it.
25.12 Andrew Miller, RP STL
Well, don't know what rock I left my brain under. Looking to see where to go and realize I only have one closer. Pay attention dummy. A lot of questions here on who will close for STL. Could be another bail and find somebody else slot.
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