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0 Subject: Daily Blurb - October 12, 2012

Posted by: Guru
- [330592710] Fri, Oct 12, 2012, 11:48

Quote of the day
"He had a look in his eye today. A complete-game look in his eye." -- Detroit manager Jim Leyland, after Justin Verlander threw a 4-hit, 11-strikeout complete game shutout over Oakland

Daily blurb
All five games in the MLB Division Series are going the full five games. Thatís unusual. At least, it hasnít happened in the 18 years of Division Series play.

Since Iím a geek, I worked up the statistical probabilities of such an occurrence. Assuming each team has a 50/50 chance of winning each game, a single series would be expected to go five games 37.5% of the time. On that basis, the odds of all four series going a full five games is about 2%, or only once in 50 years. Feel free to check my math, but I think I did it correctly.

A few random thoughtsÖ

A-Rod still has five years to go on his contract. Doesnít look like this oneís going to end gracefully.

If the Orioles win tonight, Buck Showalter will have beaten the Rangers and Yankees this postseason, the two American League teams that previously fired him. Too bad he canít have a shot at Arizona to complete the revenge-trifecta.

I was surprised to discover last night that the Yankees-Orioles game #5 is the late-afternoon game today. Then I realized that the winner has to play tomorrow, and if itís Baltimore, they have to hightail it to Detroit. Meanwhile, the NL Championship Series doesnít start until Sunday, so a late night finish in Washington lacks a similar issue.

Looking ahead, Justin Verlanderís normal 5-day starts would be for game 3 and game 7. While Iím sure Detroit would rather have won in four (saving Verlander for the ALCS opener), this setup shouldnít bother the Tigers too much.

1holt
      Donor
      ID: 308491916
      Fri, Oct 12, 2012, 13:01
Interesting post. 2% seemed low but I did the math (possibly incorrectly!) and I also got 2%.

A-Rod's contract is bad, just like Pujols' will be.

Tigers are definitely in great position to make it to the World Series.

On a side note - have you considered posting these blurbs to the facebook page? Then we could see them on our news feeds.
2weykool
      ID: 339121212
      Fri, Oct 12, 2012, 13:38
.375^4 = 1.9775%
I forgot how to figure out determining the 37.5% but it sounds reasonable.
3weykool
      ID: 339121212
      Fri, Oct 12, 2012, 13:40
The 37.5% is correct as well.
Momentary brain fart.
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