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Subject: Sear Points Road Racing Review
Posted by: Challenger
- [135231212] Thu, Jun 20, 2002, 15:36
These reviews are from Speedfx.com. Thought I would pass them along and with any comments I might have (in red).
Matt's Driver Handicaps - Sears Point
Matt McLaughlin - SpeedFX
Gordon may win in Sonoma Sunday,
but what will his first name be?
Sterling Marlin
Marlin had never finished better than sixth at Sonoma before stunning everyone with a strong second place finish in 2000. Reality intruded last year when Marlin finished 28th. A Dodge hasn’t won on a road course since Richard Petty won at Riverside June 12th, 1977.
Jimmie Johnson
Think Jimmie Johnson and road course racing and you probably recall his wild ride at Watkins Glen a couple years ago when he lost his brakes and slammed hard into the styrofoam barriers, only to emerge unscathed and dance on the roof of his car. He’s got a great mentor in Jeff Gordon but if Johnson can just finish in the top 10 this weekend he’ll probably be dancing on the roof again. Heard on "Totally NASCAR" that Jimmie has off road racing experience so don't write him off.
Jeff Gordon
Gordon is the overwhelming odds on favorite this weekend having won three of the last four Sonoma races, and seven of the last eight Cup road course races. Has only finished outside the top 6 at one Cup road course race since 1995, and that was Watkins Glen in 2000 when Gordon tangled with Tony Stewart.
Mark Martin
In the ancient (Pre-Jeff Gordon) era, Mark Martin was a dominant driver on road courses though he had more success at Watkins Glen (three wins) than here at Sonoma. (1 win- 1997) Martin does have four second place finishes at Sonoma and has missed the top 10 just once in the last twelve Sonoma events.
Matt Kenseth
It could be a long weekend for Kenseth at Sonoma. He’s run two Cup races here and finished 32nd and 21st.
Rusty Wallace
Wallace is another noted road racer, though the broken bones in his left foot are almost certain to cause him severe problems this weekend. Rusty has six career road course wins, two each here, at Watkins Glen and at Riverside. Fifth in this race last year but I don’t believe he’s ever attempted racing with one foot here before. Broken Bones???
Tony Stewart
Tony Stewart took advantage of Robby Gordon and Kevin Harvick’s little tiff here last year to duck under Gordon and steal the win. That’s one of four top 10 finishes in Stewart’s first six road course starts in a Cup car. Used to race at this place in a go-kart.
Ricky Rudd
Rudd won the first Winston Cup race run at Sears Point and has sat on the pole here four times. Ricky might argue that a second Sonoma win was stolen from him in 1992 when NASCAR black-flagged him for rough driving after he spun the late Davey Allison to take the lead. Finished fourth in both road course Cup races last year.
Kurt Busch
I seem to recall Busch ran pretty well on road courses in the trucks but his two rookie season road course results were nothing special. (23rd and 29th) Can he drive the truck?
Bill Elliott
Amazing trivia: Bill Elliott scored his first Winston Cup victory on the Riverside road course back in 1983. (Edging out Benny Parsons) Three top 10 career finishes at Sonoma including 9th place here last year, his first road course race in a Dodge.
Jeff Burton
Burton’s become a right handy little road racer as of late with three top 10 finishes in the last three road course races including a second and third place result. Could be a good dark horse pick. Sleeper??
Dale Jarrett
After the embarrassing string of self inflicted problems Jarrett suffered at Watkins Glen last year, he must be taking Prozac getting ready for this weekend. 26th here last year. Embrassing race yes, but IMHO he had the best car last year if he could have just stayed out of the gravel trap.
Ricky Craven
Not a noted road course ace. 16th here last year. Working in one of those road racing aces here
Michael Waltrip
While probably not a threat to win the race, Waltrip has finished 12th or better in three of the last five Sonoma road course races with a best result of 7th in 1996.
Dale Earnhardt Jr.
Junior won a road course race in his Busch car at Watkins Glen a few years back beating road course specialist Ron Fellows in a hard fought battle. But he’s never taken a liking to Sears Point. 24th and 19th in his two Sonoma Cup starts to date.
Ryan Newman
As best I can recall Newman has never raced on a road course before. This might be one of those weekends he can wreck the car before the engine even blows up. LOL!!
Dave Blaney
29th and 32nd in his first two stabs at Sonoma in a Cup car.
Kyle Petty
Petty once won a road course race at Watkins Glen (1992) though rain played a major factor in the outcome. (Dick Trickle almost won!) Petty finished 7th here in 1999, but hasn’t been a player since. What to do, What to do?? Go to a road racing ace??
Terry Labonte
Labonte sat on the pole back in 1996 and finished second here in 1992. As recently as 1996 Terry finished third at Sonoma but he hasn’t cracked the top 20 since.
Bobby Labonte
Labonte’s best two finishes at Sonoma are a pair of fourths. (1998 and 2000.) Two more top 10s at Sonoma including a 7th last year, with four more scored at Watkins Glen. Hmmmmm!
Others to Watch
Robby Gordon
Gordon dominated both road course races last year but was felled by his temper when he got into a pissing match with Kevin Harvick here, and by an exploding telemetry box at Watkins Glen. Did finish second here in the 7 car last year which is like saying a jockey rode a mule to second place in the Kentucky Derby. OTHERS TO WATCH??? FUNNN NNYY!
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| 1 | KrazyKoalaBears
Donor
ID: 266182910
Thu, Jun 20, 2002, 17:46
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Great info! A couple of notes... Rusty Wallace - Wallace broke some bones in his foot in the accident at CHA. He hit the brake with such force that he broke some of the bones. Dale Jarrett - Average finish of 15.2 on road courses in 14 starts over the last 7 years. With the run he's on, he looks good. Jeff Gordon - In the 2 California races, Gordon has an average finish over the last 7 years of 5.8 (CAL) and 2.4 (SPT). You have to like him in his home state. Mark Martin - With his strong runnings this season, you have to think that he could be in the form that took him to a 3.7 average finish over the last 7 years. SLEEPER
Bobby Hamilton - 19.9 average finish on road courses over the last 7 years with a 13.1 average finish at SPT (5th best over the last 7 years).
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| 2 | Great One
Donor
ID: 155402016
Thu, Jun 20, 2002, 19:49
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thanks guys, this certainly helps, I am turning over nearly my entire roster this week and then trading them all back... might as well use those trades!
I am thinking
Gordon
Gordon
JJohnson
Martin
Stewart?
Rudd
are my top choices, don't think I have the $$$ but lets see how it works out, I will check back in some time later this week.
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| 3 | Challenger
ID: 135231212
Thu, Jun 20, 2002, 23:48
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Great One, Your choice team is almost my team from last week, insert Jarrett for Johnson and Bam! Sitting with 22 trades and don't won't to make a single trade. (Don't ask on how I ended up with so many, it's a long story.)
Good thing is I've made enough moves that I can afford 5 drivers with their prices over $4mil. Bad thing? It's my worst performing team! :(
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| 4 | Challenger
ID: 135231212
Fri, Jun 21, 2002, 00:00
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KKB, Guess my sleeper's will probably be one of the road racing specialists. According to "Totally NASCAR", this year each specialists will not be replacing a regular NASCAR driver, aka Boris Said for Dave Blaney. Instead each team will have another car for the road racing warriors. Hopeful this will ease some of the tensions toward them and they can last a little longer in the race. Referring to some of the specialists being "taken" out by the regulars (Jeff Gordon nudging/rubbing/spinning Fellows out @ one race last year).
I fully understand the resentment by the NASCAR regulars, but when I take a specialists on my team and he gets knock out...........BOO HOO!
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| 5 | Fatal Image
ID: 525541020
Fri, Jun 21, 2002, 03:44
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I think the guys who are sure things this week, (or as close to sure as you can get, at least) are Rudd, Stewart, J. Gordon and R. Gordon. These guys are money in the bank at road courses. I would put Rusty in that group too if not for his unfortunate injury. McLaughlin thinks it will be a big problem.
Great One I think your ideal team looks pretty good there, except personally I'd take out Johnson and put in somebody like B. Labonte or J. Burton.
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| 6 | Fatal Image
ID: 525541020
Fri, Jun 21, 2002, 03:44
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Anybody agree that Robby Gordon wins this race outright this week?
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| 7 | KrazyKoalaBears
Donor
ID: 266182910
Fri, Jun 21, 2002, 08:14
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Challenger, I think they could win, but I think there will still be some resentment since these guys are just around for the road races. They may not get bumped and bruised as much as before, but I'm willing to bet that they're not going to get many breaks either. Fatal Image, Rudd was money in the bank last year, but whether or not that carries over to this year is another story. Over the last 7 years, he's averaged an 18.5 on road courses in 14 races. Not terrible by any means, but not exactly Jeff Gordon or Mark Martin. As far as Jimmie Johnson, if you already have him, I wouldn't trade him, and if you don't already have him, I wouldn't trade for him. I heard -- on Totally NASCAR I believe -- that Jimmie Johnson got all of Jeff Gordon's cars from last year. Just think about that for a second. This guy, in his rookie season, has Cup-winning cars at his disposal, along with all of Gordon's notes and tips. In other words, if there are 2 guys out there who are going to have the perfect car setup for SPT, it's going to be J.Gordon and Johnson. The X Factor is experience, which is why I wouldn't pick him up if you didn't already have him. But I'll certainly be holding him.
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| 8 | Fatal Image
ID: 525541020
Fri, Jun 21, 2002, 15:24
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Well, regarding Rudd, I don't mean last year, I mean what he has demonstrated his whole career.
I'm willing to bet those averages you cite are brought down by the late 90s when he was futilely running his own team and struggling pretty bad. I still consider him one of the elite road courses drivers in Winston Cup.
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| 9 | The Beezer
Leader
ID: 23520518
Fri, Jun 21, 2002, 17:56
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And then Newman goes and recorded the fastest speed in practice to throw everybody off...
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| 10 | KrazyKoalaBears
Donor
ID: 266182910
Fri, Jun 21, 2002, 20:29
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Fatal Image, you can bet if you like, but over the last 4 years, he's averaged a 17.0 finish. Not that much better than his 7-year average. FWIW, his 4-year and 7-year average is to finish about 5 places worse than he qualifies. We'll see if it plays out this weekend.
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| 11 | Fatal Image
ID: 525541020
Fri, Jun 21, 2002, 20:40
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Right. His last four years. Only two of those were with Yates. :) In '98-'99 he was running his own team.
In 2000 and 2001, his finishes at road courses are 4th, 4th, 5th, and 11th.
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| 12 | Great One
Donor
ID: 3453220
Sat, Jun 22, 2002, 04:04
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well, due to $$$ constraints, this is what I wound up with...
Gordon
Gordon
JJohnson (I think he will do well, especially with all the help from his mentor and he is in his home state too)
Mark Martin
Ryan Newman - early results encouraging
Bobby Hamilton sleeper pick I think, still working on this on this spot... so I have 2.88 total to work with. Any suggestions?
maybe Busch using Martins guidance?
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| 13 | jimmy
Leader
ID: 245232016
Sat, Jun 22, 2002, 09:20
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Moving four drivers this week that earned my team 595 points last week, 148 per driver.
Gone: Craven, Petty, Newman and Jarrett
New: RGordon, Busch, Rudd and Elliott
Others: JGordon and Rusty
Going with high post postion and experience, need only an average week, maybe 700 points.
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| 14 | KrazyKoalaBears
Donor
ID: 266182910
Sun, Jun 23, 2002, 17:44
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Let me be the first to say, Good call Fatal Image! No matter where he finishes, Ricky Rudd sitting at 2nd and challenging for 1st with 9 to go shows that he can do well on the road courses. Again, good call! Now if only J.Gordon hadn't lost his gears... UGH! ;)
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| 15 | KrazyKoalaBears
Donor
ID: 266182910
Sun, Jun 23, 2002, 17:57
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From now on, I'm just going to yield to Fatal Image. ;) An even BETTER call now that Rudd won the race. Congrats!
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| 16 | Fatal Image
ID: 525541020
Sun, Jun 23, 2002, 18:27
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Heh, thanks KKK :) Rudd sure did come through for me. But, my team also got owned by J. Gordon, and J. Burton who ran poorly too.
What a roller coaster of an ending. I hated to see Nadeau lose like that. He looked and sounded absolutely shell-shocked in his interview. But at the same time, it was good to see Rudd finally get a good break. He had had so many fantastic runs this year and no wins to show for it.
Did you see how tight the points were after this race? I think eighth place was something like ~149 back. A few weeks ago that was more like Marlin's lead over second! The 40 team is looking very ordinary lately and some of the guys outside the top five like Stewart and Rudd are really making a run. It's gonna be a wild points battle in the second half of the season.
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| 17 | KrazyKoalaBears
Donor
ID: 266182910
Sun, Jun 23, 2002, 20:19
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Fatal Image, it was tough to see Nadeau lose like that, but there were a LOT of problems with gears today. I think he may have gotten a bit to anxious about Rudd closing the gap and just messed up braking at some point, hopped the tires, and just broke the gears a la J.Gordon. Kind of the luck that Rudd had been having, so it was kind of ironic that it benefited him. As for the points race, I love it when it's this close! Marlin has been doing just enough to stay in the lead, but he's going to need a win or two soon to keep it up. Jimmie is doing too good for Marlin to stay in the lead. And I still won't count out J.Gordon. You have to like him being that close to the lead without having won a race yet. If he can string 2 or 3 together like he's very capable of, then he could put up a huge lead. Only time will tell.
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