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0 Subject: Starting Position > Finishing Position

Posted by: KrazyKoalaBears - Donor [266182910] Sun, Aug 04, 2002, 15:52
If you're like me, you've often wondered what finishing position a particular starting position would translate into.

Well, since I have all this data sitting in a database that dates all the way back to the 1994 season, I figured I would do something with it.

What you see below is the number of wins (Wins) for each starting position (Start) in the field. The left column for each time period is sorted by number of wins. The right column is sorted by starting position.

First the info, then some observations

2002 2000 - 2002 1994 - 2002
Start Wins
7 2
5 2
2 2
15 1
23 1
14 1
1 1
35 1
31 1
34 1
40 1
4 1
29 1
30 1
41 1
9 1
11 1
33 0
32 0
38 0
42 0
43 0
39 0
28 0
37 0
36 0
22 0
12 0
13 0
16 0
10 0
8 0
3 0
6 0
17 0
18 0
25 0
26 0
24 0
21 0
19 0
20 0
27 0
Start Wins
1 1
2 2
3 0
4 1
5 2
6 0
7 2
8 0
9 1
10 0
11 1
12 0
13 0
14 1
15 1
16 0
17 0
18 0
19 0
20 0
21 0
22 0
23 1
24 0
25 0
26 0
27 0
28 0
29 1
30 1
31 1
32 0
33 0
34 1
35 1
36 0
37 0
38 0
39 0
40 1
41 1
42 0
43 0
 
Start Wins
2 8
5 7
1 7
4 5
7 5
14 5
3 4
8 4
12 4
11 4
39 3
43 3
15 3
31 3
36 2
29 2
10 2
26 2
34 2
13 2
35 2
41 2
40 2
9 1
42 1
30 1
21 1
23 1
22 1
28 1
24 0
38 0
20 0
27 0
25 0
19 0
18 0
32 0
16 0
37 0
6 0
17 0
33 0
Start Wins
1 7
2 8
3 4
4 5
5 7
6 0
7 5
8 4
9 1
10 2
11 4
12 4
13 2
14 5
15 3
16 0
17 0
18 0
19 0
20 0
21 1
22 1
23 1
24 0
25 0
26 2
27 0
28 1
29 2
30 1
31 3
32 0
33 0
34 2
35 2
36 2
37 0
38 0
39 3
40 2
41 2
42 1
43 3
 
Start Wins
1 37
2 24
3 23
5 15
4 14
7 10
6 10
8 9
14 9
12 8
11 7
9 7
22 6
31 6
39 6
15 6
40 5
34 5
43 5
30 5
10 5
23 4
16 4
28 4
41 4
26 4
35 4
13 4
33 3
36 3
29 3
20 3
38 3
37 3
24 3
21 2
32 2
18 2
17 2
27 1
19 1
42 1
25 0
Start Wins
1 37
2 24
3 23
4 14
5 15
6 10
7 10
8 9
9 7
10 5
11 7
12 8
13 4
14 9
15 6
16 4
17 2
18 2
19 1
20 3
21 2
22 6
23 4
24 3
25 0
26 4
27 1
28 4
29 3
30 5
31 6
32 2
33 3
34 5
35 4
36 3
37 3
38 3
39 6
40 5
41 4
42 1
43 5

1KrazyKoalaBears
      Donor
      ID: 266182910
      Sun, Aug 04, 2002, 15:57 		Observations

While the starting position of winners this year is fairly spread out, the only repeat winner starting positions are all in the top 10.

A majority of the "Come from the back" winners have occured in the last 3 years. For instance, look at the number of winners starting from the 40's for 1994-1999 (found by subtracting the 2000-2002 numbers from the 1994-2002 numbers):
40: 3
41: 2
42: 0
43: 2

Roughly the same number of winners have come from those starting positions in 2 years less time from 2000-2002.

Nobody has won from the 25th starting spot since the start of 1994.

While winning the pole once used to be important, it seems to have become less important in recent years, though still a favorable position.

Anyhow, just some food for thought.

2KrazyKoalaBears
      Donor
      ID: 266182910
      Sun, Aug 04, 2002, 15:59 		BTW, the title of this thread for the info above would have been better served as "Starting Position > Win," however I plan on adding more tables to this thread, including one that shows the average finish position of each starting position for the same time frames. So the overall thread will become a "Starting Position > Finish Position" information thread.

Just FYI.

3KrazyKoalaBears
      Donor
      ID: 266182910
      Sun, Aug 04, 2002, 18:16 		These tables are set up the same way as the previous ones, but the information shows the average finish correlated to the 43 starting positions.

Interesting that 1/2 the top 10 average finishing spots for this year started from 20th or higher.

2002 2000-2002 1994-2002
Start Finish
3 11.4
2 16.9
23 16.9
1 17.2
25 17.9
33 17.9
6 18.3
20 18.4
38 18.4
19 19.0
7 19.1
16 19.1
10 19.1
13 19.1
4 19.6
11 19.8
37 19.9
32 19.9
17 20.1
27 20.7
12 21.4
21 21.8
15 21.9
18 22.2
9 22.2
30 22.3
39 22.4
5 23.1
24 23.9
14 23.9
26 23.9
31 24.1
8 24.2
34 24.4
29 25.4
35 25.4
22 25.6
28 26.4
40 26.8
41 27.1
36 29.4
42 34.1
43 35.5
Start Finish
1 17.2
2 16.9
3 11.4
4 19.6
5 23.1
6 18.3
7 19.1
8 24.2
9 22.2
10 19.1
11 19.8
12 21.4
13 19.1
14 23.9
15 21.9
16 19.1
17 20.1
18 22.2
19 19.0
20 18.4
21 21.8
22 25.6
23 16.9
24 23.9
25 17.9
26 23.9
27 20.7
28 26.4
29 25.4
30 22.3
31 24.1
32 19.9
33 17.9
34 24.4
35 25.4
36 29.4
37 19.9
38 18.4
39 22.4
40 26.8
41 27.1
42 34.1
43 35.5
 
Start Finish
2 15.1
3 15.2
1 15.6
9 15.9
6 16.4
4 17.1
13 17.9
5 18.1
7 18.2
8 18.2
11 18.9
10 19.8
19 20.0
37 20.5
14 20.6
23 21.1
12 21.5
17 21.7
21 21.8
38 21.9
16 22.0
18 22.1
33 22.2
31 22.4
27 22.5
24 22.5
15 22.6
25 22.7
22 23.3
39 23.3
20 23.4
26 23.8
30 24.3
28 25.2
35 26.0
34 26.4
29 26.6
32 26.9
41 27.3
42 27.8
40 27.9
36 28.0
43 31.6
Start Finish
1 15.6
2 15.1
3 15.2
4 17.1
5 18.1
6 16.4
7 18.2
8 18.2
9 15.9
10 19.8
11 18.9
12 21.5
13 17.9
14 20.6
15 22.6
16 22.0
17 21.7
18 22.1
19 20.0
20 23.4
21 21.8
22 23.3
23 21.1
24 22.5
25 22.7
26 23.8
27 22.5
28 25.2
29 26.6
30 24.3
31 22.4
32 26.9
33 22.2
34 26.4
35 26.0
36 28.0
37 20.5
38 21.9
39 23.3
40 27.9
41 27.3
42 27.8
43 31.6
 
Start Finish
1 13.9
3 15.3
6 15.5
2 15.7
7 16.6
4 16.7
5 16.8
9 17.1
13 18.7
10 18.8
8 19.1
11 19.4
16 19.6
12 19.9
21 20.4
14 20.4
15 20.7
23 20.9
19 21.3
24 21.6
17 21.6
18 21.9
20 22.3
37 22.4
26 22.7
22 23.2
27 23.3
31 23.3
25 23.7
39 23.9
38 24.0
33 24.1
30 24.1
28 24.1
29 25.0
34 25.2
35 25.6
32 26.2
40 26.3
41 27.1
36 27.2
42 28.2
43 30.3
Start Finish
1 13.9
2 15.7
3 15.3
4 16.7
5 16.8
6 15.5
7 16.6
8 19.1
9 17.1
10 18.8
11 19.4
12 19.9
13 18.7
14 20.4
15 20.7
16 19.6
17 21.6
18 21.9
19 21.3
20 22.3
21 20.4
22 23.2
23 20.9
24 21.6
25 23.7
26 22.7
27 23.3
28 24.1
29 25.0
30 24.1
31 23.3
32 26.2
33 24.1
34 25.2
35 25.6
36 27.2
37 22.4
38 24.0
39 23.9
40 26.3
41 27.1
42 28.2
43 30.3

4Challenger
      ID: 135231212
      Mon, Aug 05, 2002, 13:10 		Thanks KKB!

However, you're 2002 stats are slightly off and there's nothing you can do about it. ;)

3 words - One Engine Rule

Ex - Officially Elliot may have won the pole, but if he's forced to go to the back to start, 43rd, then 43rd position should get credit for the win. No way did Awesome Bill win from the pole as records will show if he has 42 drivers ahead of him at the drop of the starting green flag. Again this is just an example, but some many Rousch drivers have started at the back this year and worked their way up thru the ranks that there should be some type of footnote in the record books.

Again, thanks for the stats.
5KrazyKoalaBears
      Donor
      ID: 266182910
      Mon, Aug 05, 2002, 13:46 		Challenger, excellent point!
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