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Subject: Pickoff Double Analysis Posted by: Guru - [330592710] Wed, Nov 15, 10:15 Today's blurb includes an extensive analysis of actual results from doubling in Football Pickoff. I just wanted to call your attention to it, since not everyone reads the blurbs regularly. I'm particularly intrigued by the lousy results from doubling slight underdogs. (Slight underdogs are defined as teams picked by 40-49% of all entrants.) In total, these teams have won about 40% of the time, which is a little lower than the selection odds would predict. But when doubled, these teams win only about one-third of the time. | ||||||
| 1 | Raz ID: 547512810 Wed, Nov 15, 10:42 |
Wow...I was very surprised to find out that I was only one of 6 teams who had made over 300 points doubling. I've made 339 points so far. How do the other five teams stack up? Here's how my personal doubling picks look: 20-29% -- Won 2, Lost 0 -- Net points: 144 30-39% -- Won 2, Lost 3 -- Net points: 38 40-49% -- Won 3, Lost 0 -- Net points: 175 I guess this is kinda the opposite of Guru's analysis...I'm doing quite well on the 40-49% games, while the 30-39% seem to be the ones giving me problems. | |||||
| 2 | Guru ID: 330592710 Wed, Nov 15, 10:57 |
Here are the top 25 doublers:Pts Name | |||||
| 3 | WiddleAvi ID: 48523260 Wed, Nov 15, 11:15 | Guru is there anyway to see at the site my own historical picks so I can see how I did on doubling up ?? | |||||
| 4 | Raz ID: 547512810 Wed, Nov 15, 11:39 |
Oops...a little math error there. Add up all my net points and you get the right answer, though. Thanks for the info, Guru. WiddleAvi...go to "Review Score" and then at the bottom of the page you can click on your picks for each week. | |||||
| 5 | OSU Rules ID: 15372315 Wed, Nov 15, 11:43 |
I will be happy to provide the how not to do it example. First, the good news I won my double last week (thank you S.F.). Of course, it was my first successful double of the year. Second, here is my breakdown: 20-29 0-3 30-39 1-0 yes! 40-49 0-4 Now we know who is bringing down the averages 50-59 0-1 60-69 0-1 80-89 0-1 Act of desperation that still failed (thanks T.B.) Early on I thought the slight underdogs would be the best way to go. Since then I have started picking heavier underdogs. My two strong favorite picks were both during the blind weeks. My thinking was since I had no way of knowing which picks would be the furthest off, I should pick sure winners and take the small gauranteed points. Anyway, seemed like a good idea at the time. Overall, with my win last week (+68), I am still -390 for the year. :-( | |||||
| 6 | Guru ID: 330592710 Wed, Nov 15, 12:03 |
Actually, OSU Rules, you only produced -367. Remember, the first week didn't count. The worst result is -384. I won't embarrass the guilty party by naming him. OSU Rules is the runner up. | |||||
| 7 | OSU Rules ID: 15372315 Wed, Nov 15, 12:09 | Guru- I remembered that, but the -23 the first week is my 3rd best score on doubling, so I like to count it. ;-) | |||||
| 8 | KevinL ID: 3810241416 Wed, Nov 15, 12:30 |
I've got just 134 points by doubling, but I feel that is skewed by a couple factors: I picked Jacksonville (@ Baltimore) in week 2, cost me 98. Then I picket Tampa (vs. Jets) in blind week 4, lost 166. In my other 8 weeks, I'm 6-2 for +398, on the strength of New Orleans, weeks 6-8), for +272. I'm 6-2 picking teams from the 40-70% range, 0-1 over 70, 0-1 under 70. | |||||
| 9 | ksoze ID: 131026218 Sat, Nov 18, 23:50 |
Guru, It appears that Pickoff is down right now. When I try to log in I get "The requested URL... is not found on this server." | |||||
| 10 | Guru ID: 330592710 Sun, Nov 19, 08:13 |
Pickoff is on the same server as this forum. So I doubt it was really down - or else you wouldn't have been able to post your message! Probably just a momentary hiccup. But this is a good opportunity to raise a point. A lot of people don't enter their picks until the weekend - even Sunday morning. When things are working fine, that's OK, but in the event of Murphy's law, you risk a zero for the week. (I realize that zero is a good score for many of us!) It's better (safer) practice to make your picks earlier in the week, and then review and adjust on the weekend, if necessary. That way, if there is a late problem, you still have a set of picks in play. | |||||
| 11 | The Beezer ID: 20982322 Sun, Nov 19, 08:17 |
Guru, thanks for not naming me, but I'll be a stand-up guy and take the -ahem- credit. Actually, my doubled total so far this year is -388. And if you count week 1 with the rest, I'm a nice, round -500 for the season. And I SKIPPED 3 weeks! Somebody please put me out of my misery!!!!!! Here's how you create a futility standard: Week 1 : Doubled GB vs. NYJ for -112 points. Week 2 : Doubled KC vs. TEN for -30 points. Week 3 : Doubled SD vs. KC for -52 points. Week 4 : Doubled ATL vs. STL for -32 points. Week 5 : Doubled ATL vs. PHI for -88 points. Skipped weeks 6, 7, and 8 out of humiliation, then came back for mid-season. :) Week 9 : Doubled SEA vs. KC for -46 points. Week 10: Doubled DAL vs. PHI for -72 points. Week 11: Doubled CAR vs. NO for -68 points. By percentages, not counting week 1: 10-20 0-2 20-30 0-2 30-40 0-2 40-50 0-1 This week, I'm taking Atlanta vs. San Francisco. I advise you all to stay away. :) I'm so freakin' embarassed!! | |||||
| 12 | Punishark ID: 4310311723 Sun, Nov 19, 12:47 |
Dave, I've been getting the same message as ksoze since last night. "Not Found The requested URL /cgi-bin/cgi-bin/login.cgi was not found on this server." Can it be Netscape 6? | |||||
| 13 | Punishark ID: 4310311723 Sun, Nov 19, 12:51 |
Maybe it is. I was just able to get in and make selections using Netscape 4.7, but (as mentioned by Strike One), I am already locked out for this week. | |||||
| 14 | Sludge ID: 20421222 Sun, Nov 19, 13:02 |
Recount! Recount! Either that, or let's allow everyone to make their selections again on Tuesday. | |||||
| 15 | Raz ID: 54812114 Sun, Nov 19, 13:05 | The Beezer...Actually, it looks like you are counting each game double what you should. Only half of each of those scores is the result of doubling. The other half you would have lost even if you haven't doubled that game. So really you are only at -194. Nothing to be embarrassed about. | |||||
| 16 | The Beezer ID: 20982322 Sun, Nov 19, 13:18 | Thanks for the heads-up, Raz. I think I'll open the garage door and LIVE, LIVE, LIIIIIIIVE!!!! ;) | |||||
| 17 | Guru ID: 330592710 Sun, Nov 19, 13:53 |
Sounds like there may be a problem with Netscape 6. The program should not be accessing anything with /cgi-bin/cgi-bin/ in the URL. BTW, if you had emailed your picks to me before the freeze, I'd have accepted them. | |||||
| 18 | Ref ID: 5848718 Sun, Nov 19, 14:09 | I upgraded to Netscape 6.0 at work and it screwed up everything--even my IE5. SO now at work I'm using 4.7 again exclusively. Can't even uninstall it!!! | |||||
| 19 | Guru ID: 330592710 Sun, Nov 19, 14:42 | I was thinking of upgrading to Netscape 6. Guess I'll wait awhile. | |||||
| 20 | Sludge ID: 1440310 Mon, Nov 20, 10:43 | Damn those Chargers. First place would have been mine (at least temporarily) had they had the ability to hold on to a huge lead. And, of all the games to double, I pick Cincy. I guess hindsight is 20/20, though. | |||||
| 21 | ksoze ID: 2210132011 Mon, Nov 20, 11:13 | Yeah, the computer I was trying to access my picks on has Netscape 6 on it... this one does not and I have no problems getting in. Fortunately I'd made my picks earlier in the week, just wanted to look them over. In hindsight I think I'd rather have had a zero then my -266. | |||||
| 22 | Adams G-men ID: 258222114 Mon, Nov 20, 16:12 | Speaking of the Football Pickoff, did ANYONE notice that I am winning this week going into the Monday Night game???? If St Lious Loses I lose by 1 pt, if St Lious wins, I win this weeks' Football pick off by 200 points... no props for that guru??? go Rams!!!!!!!!!!1 | |||||
| 23 | Guru ID: 330592710 Mon, Nov 20, 16:43 |
Sorry Adam, no props. You are currently ranked 10th, and the best you can do is still more than 300 points behind the best team this week (so far), fubar. Perhaps you are only looking at your division results? | |||||
| 24 | peterl ID: 45420316 Mon, Nov 20, 19:14 |
I have minus 781 points. This is not an attempt to do badly, I am embarrassed to say that all of the picks made sense to me at the time. -781 Is that the lowest score? | |||||
| 25 | balls ID: 84342112 Mon, Nov 20, 19:24 |
LOL at Adam...Keep trying to promote yourself! My double up this week was Baltimore over Dallas....which netted me a cool~~32 pts...Call me crazy. I've done pretty good at pickin the winners...but when I pick the underdogs...especially(sp?) doubling the underdogs, it has turned around to bite in the arse. | |||||
| 26 | Guru ID: 330592710 Mon, Nov 20, 19:27 |
Nobody has -781. Check your score again. The worst weekly score so far this year is -585, in NFL week #2. Most weeks, there is at least one entry in the -500s, though. | |||||
| 27 | peterl ID: 45420316 Mon, Nov 20, 19:45 |
Guess I was unclear. I am at -781 points for the year. I am in 563rd place and was -335 this week. Darn, this is painful to document! Gotta stop picking my hometown Patriots. :-) | |||||
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