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Subject: RIFC - Draft rationales
Posted by: Guru
- [330592710] Wed, Aug 18, 2004, 09:29
This thread will be for managers in the RotoGuru Invitational Football Challenge to provide the rationale for each pick.
Here are the ground rules:
1. Only managers in this league should post here. If you want to provide feedback (either from other league managers, or from those not in the league), put it in the discussion thread. (Non-conforming discussion in this thread will be deleted.)
2. Try to keep the pick rationales in the same order as the draft. We'll attempt to keep this thread 2 rounds behind the actual draft. With the lag, most comments should not have an impact on the draft in progress. However, if there are aspects of your pick that you feel need to be kept under wraps, feel free to protect that information. In particular, please avoid mentioning the names of any players who are still undrafted at that time of the post.
Please post your comments at the time you make your pick. For example, you should post your comments for your round 1 pick when you make your round 3 selection. If you are not ready to post at that time, then, create a "placeholder" so that the next person is able to go ahead in sequence. When your post is ready, simply post it in the draft discussion thread and a moderator can copy it over.
If your rationale is due and intervening placeholders have not been inserted, please insert them before posting your rationale.
3. Once the draft is over, each manager is also encouraged to provide a general draft recap, at which time you can discuss your overall strategy, mention any undisclosed factors, comment on what worked out well and what didn't, etc.
The general format should be:
1.01 Priest Holmes - RB, KC
Several sentences of rationale.
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| 22 | Mike V
Donor
ID: 481126818
Thu, Aug 19, 2004, 00:33
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2.08 Michael Vick - QB, ATL
The original hope was to pick Culpepper, Manning or Vick if they were still available. The expectation was to pick between Holt, Ward, Chad, or Dillon. I was ecstatic that Vick was still there.
With the gambling pick of Jamal Lewis in the first round I see no reason to start half stepping now. A full season from Vick, while it can only be distant hope, would produce 3000+ yards passing and 800+ yards rushing. Oh, to dream before the reality sets in.
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| 24 | Challenger
Donor
ID: 481126818
Thu, Aug 19, 2004, 00:36
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2.09 Donovan McNabb - QB, Phil
IMHO, McNabb is the last of the top tier QB's. His stock was definitely hurt last year with his extremely terrible 1st half of last season. McNabb was coming off a broken leg from the 2002 season and this may have contributed to him having a confidence problem. However, the 2nd half of the 2003 season McNabb was one of the top QB's week end and week out and that's the McNabb we will hopefully see starting in game one this season.
One good thing for McNabb is the Eagles has made a small upgrade in the WR department, someone named Owens who just may catch a few more TD passes than whomever he is replacing in the lineup.
Oh no! This Cowboy fan now adds an Eagle!
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| 25 | leggestand
ID: 24914721
Thu, Aug 19, 2004, 00:37
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2.10 Torry Holt - WR, STL
I had initially expected this slot to yield a player like Hines Ward or Chad Johnson. I didn’t expect the 3rd best WR to fall into my lap. Torry Holt has emerged a premiere WR of the NFL, and is the favorite target of Marc Bulger. With the Rams defense most likely struggling this season, I expect the Rams to throw early often. I don’t believe that Holt will put up the same numbers as last year (1700 yards and 12 TD’s), but I do think he is more than capable of 1400 yards and 10 TD’s.
I only debated taking one other player with this pick: Rudi Johnson. I didn’t expect him to fall to my spot either, but I decided to go for a sure thing in Holt and take a chance on a RB on my next pick.
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| 26 | Sludge
ID: 24914721
Thu, Aug 19, 2004, 00:38
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2.11 Chad Johnson - WR, Cin
I wanted to grab another RB at this point, I really did, but I knew I would have to be really lucky for any of the RBs I would have taken over a top WR to make it down that far. Of course, none of them did, so WR it is. (I wasn't even thinking QB at this point.)
Between Chad Johnson and Terrell Owens, I'd pick Johnson 10 times out of 10. There are a few players in the league that I will draft only if there is a clear separation between them and the next best guy. I don't see that separation here, so I went with Johnson. |
| 27 | TB
ID: 2343587
Thu, Aug 19, 2004, 00:40
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2.12 Rudi Johnson, RB, Cincinnati
I simulated the first four rounds of our league draft and projected that I would land Curtis Martin with this pick. I knew I wanted my 2nd RB in this slot and was very happy to get a player I consider to be fantasy team's #1 RB. Rudi only started five games last season and managed 957 yards in 215 carries. When the Bengals traded Dillon they made it clear that Rudi is their starter. I expect 1100-1200 rushing yards, 200 receiving, and 8-10 TD's.
I had some concerns. The Bengals were sending mixed signals. They did not sign him to a long term contract. This could be good because Rudi is playing for next year's contract. It could be bad because I wonder if his status as a starter is in question? Will it be RBBC with Chris Perry, the 26th selection in this years NFL draft? I had Rudi Johnson and Michael Bennett ranked within one point of each other and spent some time going over the pros and cons of each. In the end, I decided that I was spending too much time second-guessing myself and that Rudi was the player for me.
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| 28 | Perm Dude
ID: 2343587
Thu, Aug 19, 2004, 00:47
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2.13 Hines Ward, WR, Pittsburgh
I was dismayed to see a number of WRs go before I picked, all of which were rightfully mine--all mine! It was interesting to see the attention of the league turn from RBs to the top few QBs (which went later than in many drafts, but earlier than I thought they would) to the top WRs.
Ward is a tough player who makes points. Very symbolic of the Steelers work ethic, he just goes out there and, at the end of the day, lays it all on the field. I expect between 12-14 receiving touchdowns, plus some bonus rushing yards here and there from the once a game attempt he'll get this year.
Ward is also vastly underpaid, and appears to have decided not to hold out for a new contract. I suspect he'll play even better this year in order to get an even bigger pay hike at the end of the year.
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| 29 | culdeus
Sustainer
ID: 451036518
Thu, Aug 19, 2004, 09:10
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2.14 Michael Bennett, RB, Minnesota
I have to say I was shocked he fell this far I think this happened because of the inexplicable massive QB rush right in the middle of round 2 and with the absence of goatlocker at the turn. I still feel being able to get a solid RBRB combination will really provide an anchor to my lineup. I was very concerned that I would have had to take 3 RBs right in a row if all that was left was the Curtis Martin/Duce Staley type of backs and play matchups.
I see Bennett as the featured back in Minnesota and should rise up to the RB8-RB12 category this year. I think the RBBC situation will diminish greatly and the overall improvement of Minnesota will lead to more rushing opportunities late in games. I do worry about the durability of him over the season but this was still one of those 15 second picks. There was no way I let him slide by.
Project 1200yds 10-14TDs and 200 rec yards
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| 30 | leggestand
Sustainer
ID: 451036518
Thu, Aug 19, 2004, 09:13
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3.01 Brian Westbrook, RB, Philly – via trade with Culdeus
Looking back on this, I believe I may have stretched to get Westbrook here. I saw that two teams picking before me had only one RB, and I had no doubt that Westbrook would be gone by my pick. Since I had a top WR and RB already, I decided to make a trade to get my RB position filled, but then neither of the two teams that I thought would select an RB, actually selected one. So, I probably didn't need to make the trade.
I like Westbrook for a variety of reasons. He can run, he can catch, he can return, and Duce Staley is gone. I definitely think that his 13 TD’s last year was an anomaly, but I think it is reasonable for me to expect at least 100 total yards every game and 1 TD every other game. I don’t know if Westbrook will end up returning kicks or not, but I assume that if Buckhalter starts getting a bigger load, then Westbrook will handles kicks in addition to his 20 touches on offense. I think Westbrook is a safe pick here and has a lot of upside.
IMO, I did not have anyone else to pick here. No WR or QB warranted a 3.1 selection, and it was too early for defensive players. Westbrook was the #1 RB on the board, so, I traded to get him.
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| 31 | TB
Leader
ID: 031811922
Thu, Aug 19, 2004, 11:54
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3.02 Matt Hasselbeck, QB, SEA
Perm Dude: Hasselbeck is a solid top 5 QB, who can can put up gobs of points and yards at the drop of a hat. Having seen the other top QBs go already, I was worried about a top guy no longer being around, and my pre-draft strategy was to go RB/WR the first two rounds and see if I needed to got QB in the third (if only mid-range QBs were available I was going to get another top RB/WR since more would have been on the board).
Hasselbeck had a bit of trouble down the stretch of last season, but much of his trouble came from receivers just dropping the ball. I completely expect Koren Robinson to develop as a top receiver and with a talented receiver like Robinson Hasselbeck's upside looks pretty good. He's probably the best pure in-the-pocket passer in the game right now, which cuts down on his rushing stats but increases his passing stats.
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| 32 | TB
Leader
ID: 031811922
Thu, Aug 19, 2004, 11:54
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3.03 Steve Smith, WR, CAR
This is exactly who I projected I would get with this pick. The "top six" WR were gone and Smith fell into the same tier with the next 8-10 WR available. Smith established himself as a top flight WR and the go-to guy last season with 88 catches, 1110 yards and 7 TD's. Pundits project Smith to reach the same milestones this year. What put Smith above the remaining receivers, and moved him to the 4th ranked WR on my board (for this leagues scoring rules), was the 424 yards he has averaged in punt returns over the last three seasons. I love the upside for Smith. The Carolina offense has a solid running game and a QB who now has a full year as a starter under his belt. I will be surprised if Smith doesn't exceed all of his numbers from last year.
Santana Moss was the only other receiver I considered with this pick. I tried to trade down, hoping I would garner interest from a team wanting to move up and grab their 2nd RB. I felt that I could still get Smith a bit lower and put myself in a better position for my next pick. I thought long and hard about passing on a WR at this position and taking my third RB by selecting Curtis Martin. This is the second rationale where I have mentioned Martin's name and it's because I think he was a complete steal for Ender. I couldn't pull the trigger on Martin because I knew I wouldn't get Smith 23 picks later.
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| 33 | Sludge
ID: 54692111
Thu, Aug 19, 2004, 12:28
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3.04 Darrell Jackson - WR, SEA
I was tempted to go QB with this pick, but looking at the top 14 or so QBs, I would be satisfied with pretty much any of them. I've won leagues before with almost literally no QB, and as it was pretty much toss-a-dart time for RBs, I decided to go WR.
It was pretty much between Santana Moss and Darrell Jackson. I just see Seattle having a better year.
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| 34 | leggestand
Sustainer
ID: 451036518
Thu, Aug 19, 2004, 12:54
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For Culdeus
3.5 Santana Moss WR/PR NYJ
-Trade Commentary- This was one of those rare trades that I really thought it made both drafts better. Legge needed a RB2 bad and I was indifferent on a number of WR but was mainly choosing between Moss and Mason for the premier WR + part time return skills. So swapping picks worked great to allow me to move up in some later rounds and I still had a look at both guys I wanted at 3.1.
Moss represents the great upside WR pick and could potentially be the WR3 this year in this system if he maintains his PR status. The points here for Moss were just too much to pass up. I worry that if his durability gets shaky they will pull him from the return duties and as it is very early in pre-season it was tough to project who will be the return man but this looks to be a good bet. I like Pennington as a decent QB who can get the ball out there and the fact that the Jets look to be behind in many, many games this year could lead to more targets for Moss.
Project 1250 yds 10TD 350 return yards 1 return TD
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| 35 | Challenger
Donor
ID: 481126818
Thu, Aug 19, 2004, 13:12
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3.06 Ray Lewis - LB, BAL
The draft rationale everyone is waiting on!
The simple explanation is I couldn't agree with myself on whom to draft at either WR or RB. In my opinion there were no available players that were "must have" in those positions. Also, if I went QB I was drafting my backup and I reasoned it was to early for drafting backups. I then rationalized that if I couldn't have the top QB, RB, or WR then I will defiantly take the top TE, Gonzo. But wait, Lewis's projected fantasy point numbers look way better than the top TE. Since we don't receive return yards for defensive players, my projections show Lewis as the top defensive player. I can live with that.
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| 36 | MikeV
SuperDude
ID: 25924115
Thu, Aug 19, 2004, 13:21
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3.07 Joe Horn, WR, NO
Horn was the last of my top 10 receivers on the board so I didn't want to wait until the next round to select my #1 WR. A decent year from Brooks should make this a very productive pick.
I gave serious thought to grabbing Tony Gonzales but that would have seriously dropped the quality of my top wide out.
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| 37 | Ender
ID: 0442215
Thu, Aug 19, 2004, 14:42
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For Taxman:
3.08 Kevin Jones, RB, Det
I needed a number two RB or a stud receiver at this slot. At pick 36, good WR were available but no top tier. Thus the focus shifted to available backs and I rolled the dice on rookie Kevin Jones of Detroit, the first RB drafted last year.
The best part about Jones is the lack of competition. He is the man for the Lions with good hands, outside speed, inside power and by signing early will get max reps in Marriuci's West Coast offense. Jones has more upside than Dunn, Curtis Martin or Chris Brown, although all projections point to the Lions not arriving as an offense until next year.
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| 38 | Ender
ID: 0442215
Thu, Aug 19, 2004, 14:43
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3.09 Curtis Martin, RB, NYJ
Curtis and I have had our ups and downs over his career, but I have faith in him one more time. I have also read that the Jets are going to look to him even more this year. He's starting to age (perhaps starting isn't the right word), but he seemed the best available known quantity. I wasn't looking to take chances and preferred to know what I was getting.
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| 39 | cEHp @ library
ID: 267531917
Thu, Aug 19, 2004, 19:19
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3.10 Aaron Brooks, QB, New Orleans
This rationale is easy. Brooks will be the MVP of the league this season. In a "disappointing" year he still managed to put up strong numbers and with more depth added to his now healthy, and when healthy extremely dangerous, receiving corps he will really light up the scoreboard. The Saints defense has not improved much either meaning most New Orleans' games will be barn burners and Brooks will continue to benefit from this.
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| 40 | Motley Crue
ID: 58736522
Thu, Aug 19, 2004, 19:39
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3.11 Koren Robinson, WR, SEA
Deepsnapper:
I believe Robininson suffered from a case of "sophmoritis" last year after a great rookie season. Or maybe he read too many of his own press releases, but the drop off was noticable in yards & TDs in 2003. That said, I really look for him to have a breakout season in 2004 to make ammends for that, and there are several reasons to support that belief.
This is his third year in Head Coach Mike Holmgren's offense and most receivers don't grasp all the nuances of the West Coast offense until 3 years in the same system. Holmgren's system isn't an easy one to master by any means.
He bulked up in Seattle's offseason conditioning program instead of going home to NC as he did last offseason. The added muscle and strengh should help him fight off defensive backs and hopefully avoid any serious injuries.
L also expect all the work he put in with Hasselback running all those deep routes during the hot muggy summer weather of Seattle will pay off in a few extra touchdowns this fall too.
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| 41 | Motley Crue
ID: 58736522
Thu, Aug 19, 2004, 19:41
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3.12 Tony Gonzalez - TE, KAN
Who's the best fantasy tight end in the league? Rhetorical question: Gonzo is head and shoulders above the rest. I predict he'll outscore the second ranked TE by around 2 points per week. After Tony Gonzalez, there are a few pretty good TE's, and then there's the crapshoot. I decided I wanted to have this position set for the year, and I wanted to get the #1 guy because he will score much higher relative to the rest of the guys at his position, when compared to all of the other available players at this point. Picking a RB here is unnecessary, since I have 2 starters. And the QB's left at this point are all bunched up together in my analysis. No extra value getting one over the others.
With 2RB's and a TE, my next pick will have to be a WR. Luckily, with all of the high tier QB's and other various players taken early in the draft, there are still some great values at WR available for me at 4.03: some guys I wouldn't feel nervous about trotting out as my number 1 WR. And it's still entirely too early for any guys on the other side of the ball, in my mind. There isn't as much scarcity in the defensive positions.
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| 42 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Thu, Aug 19, 2004, 20:15
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3.13 Derrick Mason - WR, Ten
At the beginning of round three, I wrote down three names that I hoped I could pick between – Steve Smith, Santana Moss, and Derrick Mason (in that order). When Smith and Moss went early in the round, I figured I might have to go back to the drawing board. But Mason survived.
Even without return yardage, I think Mason makes sense at this pick. I'm looking for 1200 receiving yards and 8 TDs. Kickoff and punt return potential seals the deal.
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| 43 | GoatLocker
ID: 427272213
Thu, Aug 19, 2004, 20:29
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3.14 Warrick Dunn, RB, Atlanta
Needed what I felt would be another solid running back at this point. Do have a concern about his ability to stay well and losing touches to TJ, but do expect that he will have more catches than in the past. Hoping this helps balance out for the RB slot for me with no studs in that position.
Hopefully can grind it out and ehlp keep me in position to contend.
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| 44 | GoatLocker
ID: 427272213
Thu, Aug 19, 2004, 20:34
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4.01 Steve McNair, QB, Ten
Really happy with this pick.
Had him ranked #6 and got him as the 7th QB taken.
Had given Deepsnapper a queue with 2 QBs on it.
Hasselbeck went as soon as I gave it to him and was glad to see McNair make it back around.
Expect him to have another solid year.
I had a bag thrown over Manning, McNabb, Vick, Hasselbeck, and McNair seeing them as within 10 points of each other, so do like the choice and cold expect as much as the #2 QB scorer out of him.
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| 45 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Thu, Aug 19, 2004, 20:39
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4.02 Todd Heap – TE, Bal
I'm not thrilled with any of the available RBs at this juncture. I think there are still plenty of viable WRs. It's too early for a 2nd QB. I'd have taken Ray Lewis here, but he's gone. I thought about team defense, but decided it's too early.
Todd Heap is one of the few tight ends that you can count on for weekly contributions. While there are available players at other positions that will outscore him, I think the marginal benefit of getting him (vs. waiting) is attractive. You never know when the "run" on quality tight ends (or is that an oxymoron?) will start. Maybe it just did. If so, it's also almost over.
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| 46 | Motley Crue
ID: 58736522
Thu, Aug 19, 2004, 21:13
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4.03 Laveranues Coles - WR, WAS
The WR run began in the mid-third round. I needed someone to anchor my starting wideouts. I was really hoping Mason would make it to me, as I had him ranked clearly higher than anyone else left. Once Guru snagged him, it was between Moulds, Coles, and Andre Johnson. I almost pulled the trigger on Moulds. I convinced myself that would be a mistake through no fault of his own. Coles will have someone competent throwing the ball to him. Enough said.
At this point, I know I need another WR and I really need to start looking at a QB soon to make sure I wind up with a starter in the TOP half of League rankings rather than the bottom 15-16.
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| 47 | deepsnapper
Donor
ID: 481126818
Fri, Aug 20, 2004, 00:15
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4.04 Trent Green, QB, Kansas City
With seven quaterbacks off the board and looking at the prospects of 20 picks being made before I made another selection, I decided to go ahead and take Green since he was the top quarterback on my board.
With all the scoring categories in our league, I wanted someone who can throw the ball with consistency and not turn the ball over. Green's 92.6 passer rating for the past 2 years is a testament to that. Touchdowns not interceptions is key. Having someone like Priest Holmes to dump off to and turn a 4 yr pass in 04 is another nice option too.
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| 48 | CanEHdian Pride
Donor
ID: 481126818
Fri, Aug 20, 2004, 00:16
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4.05 Eric Moulds - WR, BUF
Moulds is healthy and looking really good in training camp. He very easily could rebound back into the fantasy wideout elite but even a decent season should net 1200 yards and 8 TDs. My 3 player queue consisted of Laverneous Coles, Eric Moulds and Chris Chambers and though I was a little disappointed that I wasn't able to grab Coles I think Moulds is a solid 4th round pick.
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| 49 | Ender
Donor
ID: 481126818
Fri, Aug 20, 2004, 00:17
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4.06 Marc Bulger - QB, STL
I wanted to have a solid QB and didn't want to wait too long to get him. In hindsight I probably could have waited to pick up a QB, but the way my other picks have followed I am satisfied with my decision. I know the Rams have some questions on the O-Line right now, but I think this guy is good for at least 28 TD's with a really good chance of breaking 30. I don't think I can say that about any of the QB's that would have been available in later rounds. It's also hard to wait through 18 picks so I grabbed him while he was still out there. I feel pretty good about having a Top 3 WR and a QB who throws to anoother one.
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| 50 | Taxman
Donor
ID: 481126818
Fri, Aug 20, 2004, 00:18
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4.07 Andre Johnson - WR, HOU
After the last pick I looked strictly for WR help. With no stud receivers on the board, I drafted on upside potential and ignored proven WR such as Rod Smith, Bruce and Toomer.
AJ is big (6'2", 220lbs) and fast (4.3-40) and in his rookie year turned a 14.8 yrds/reception into just under a 1000 yrds. He makes a great 2nd receiver and might blossom into a stud, but will have to find the end zone more than his 4 TD's last year.
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| 51 | Mike V
Donor
ID: 481126818
Fri, Aug 20, 2004, 00:19
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4.08 Anquan Boldin - WR, ARI
He's hurt and will miss about 5 games (6th is a bye) but is a top 10 receiver and could very well do better in 11 games than anyone left on the board in 16.
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| 52 | Challenger
Donor
ID: 481126818
Fri, Aug 20, 2004, 00:22
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4.09 Chris Brown - RB, TEN
Ho Hum! That's how I felt going into this pick. RB availability has dropped down to the 3rd tier group and I could not go any later to finish out my starting RB position, yet there was noone that really jump out on me. Thomas Jones was given consideration, but I had just read a news tidbit that the Bears top offensive lineman was going to miss about the 1st 4 games of the season with a elbow injury, hurting a rather so-so line even further. The are other RB's still available, even a round later at this writing, I gave consideration, but ultimately went with Brown as the news is the Titans are not shopping for another RB and are satisfied with what Brown can bring to their game.
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| 53 | culdeus
ID: 475323018
Fri, Aug 20, 2004, 00:40
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4.10 Chris Chambers - WR, MIA
This is my first big gamble, I couldn’t let a guy with this much upside slide by to take the likes of Jimmy Smith, etc. etc. Somebody has to get the ball on this team, don’t they? And given the fact that Miami might win 3 games this year taking a WR on a team that is always behind seemed like a good idea at the time. Ask me in 6 weeks or so when I may be hitting my head against numerous immovable objects.
So many worries though, no reliable RB, no other WR to speak of, no QB to speak of, coach on the way out. Sheesh. All I’m looking for are 2-6 monster games like he had last year to hopefully pull out a few wins the hard way. I have no idea how to project him, maybe more yards than last year, less TD’s who knows. Best guess
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| 54 | Sludge
ID: 475323018
Fri, Aug 20, 2004, 00:41
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4.11 Thomas Jones - RB, CHI
I knew that there would be at most 2 QBs selected before my next pick, so I decided to go RB and grab another servicable starter in Thomas Jones. He should be the guy in Chicago, such that it is. I'm keeping my fingers crossed on this one.
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| 55 | TB
Leader
ID: 031811922
Fri, Aug 20, 2004, 01:32
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4.12 Amani Toomer, WR, NYG
I initially pegged Dante Hall for this slot as my 2nd WR. There were three receivers available who I projected to score about the same: A. Toomer, J. Smith, and D. Hall, with Toomer having the slight edge. I have always liked Amani Toomer and he has been a consistent receiver for the Giants, averaging over 1100 yards and 6 TD’s over the last 5 seasons. I am concerned with the QB situation and the offense in NY, but believe Toomer will be the player that the QB will look for and rely on.
On a much smaller note, I was intrigued with the possibility that he might be involved with punt returns. Toomer only has 9 punt returns since 1999, but when the Giants waived return man Delvin Joyce and after I read that Toomer was practicing with the punt team since training camp opened, I liked the possibility that he might get a handful of return yards (money) and maybe even a TD.
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| 56 | Perm Dude
ID: 2343587
Fri, Aug 20, 2004, 12:23
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4.13 Baltimore Defense
Having a good defense can be as good as having an extra offensive player, so I wanted to make sure to get a top defense early enough to make a positive difference. While New England was considered, I still think Baltmore will have the top defense in the league, and so targetted them as the defense I'd want.
Despite having KC in Week 4, their schedule looks pretty good, particularly in their division: Pittsburgh, for example, was God-awful last year trying to run the ball, and Cleveland has holes in their line and a new QB who isn't the most mobile guy.
While I will lose a chance to take another good offensive guy in this spot, by taking Baltimore now I'm able to get a jump on other managers with the top D while ensuring that my likely points will stay about the same as taking another offensive player.
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| 57 | leggestand
Sustainer
ID: 451036518
Fri, Aug 20, 2004, 14:58
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4.14 Peerless Price, WR, Atlanta
Was it just 1 season ago when Peerless was expected to be a Top 10 WR? I looked at 3 WR’s with this pick: Jimmy Smith, Peerless, and Jerry Porter. I decided on Peerless because the Falcons have brought in a west coast offense with new coach Jim Mora, Jr. Plus, Peerless has been moved to the flanker position, which will allow him to go in motion prior to the snap more often and give him more separation using his speed. He will also be moved to the slot in 3 and 4 WR sets, which will give big mismatches against LB’s. I expect this year to be the year we expected from Price last year.
If Vick’s healthy:
Projected: 1200 yds, 8-10TD’s
If Vick’s not healthy:
Projected: 9 catches, 28 yds.
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| 58 | culdeus
ID: 58736522
Fri, Aug 20, 2004, 16:00
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5.01 Tom Brady - QB, NWE
I know, way way early for a QB, but I have a tendency to set a stop limit order on QBs now. I did a slow draft last year for the poli board and got stuck with David Carr and a box of backup QBs. Yikes! Vowing never to let that happen again I went with Brady in the hopes he can turn in some consistent numbers. The system does not benefit the QBs at all in this league, but Brady is higher on the yards than TDS so he seemed the better choice than lets say Garcia.
I am also banking on a run on the IDP spots somewhere between now and 6.10 leaving me with a good shot at a decent 3rd WR. Or at least I hope so.
Projection 3500 yards 24 TD negligible rushing yards, maybe 2 rushing TDs
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| 59 | Motley Crue
ID: 58736522
Fri, Aug 20, 2004, 16:01
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5.02 Larry Fitzgerald - WR, ARI
Perm Dude:
A bit of a risky pick, I had him on my radar for a bit and when the injury took out Anquan Boldin I moved him a few spots up.
I'm a bit worried about his ankle, but the team seems to be taking it slow with him so he should be all ready to go for the season.
I'm predicting a minimum of 1000 yards, 11-12 touchdowns, and plenty of looks as the top guy in Arizona. It's almost certain he'll be one of the top rookie producers in the league.
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| 60 | TB
ID: 58736522
Fri, Aug 20, 2004, 16:01
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5.03 Jimmy Smith - WR, Jac
I almost drafted Jimmy Smith over Amani Toomer with my previous pick. I am slightly concerned with his age, but the guy has been a great player for years. In 12 games last season (suspended for four) he totaled 800 yards. If he had played all 16 games and maintained that same pace, he would have surpassed the 1000 mark for the 8th straight season.
With only 18 other receivers drafted by other teams in a league that requires 42 weekly starters, I expected another WR run and the quality of receiver to be greatly diminished when it became my turn to pick again. I was pretty happy to lock up my three starting spots this early in the draft. Other players I considered at this point were Dante Hall, Chad Pennington, and the NE Defense.
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| 61 | Sludge
ID: 54692111
Fri, Aug 20, 2004, 16:03
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5.04 Brett Favre - QB, GNB
With Jimmy Smith taken the pick before mine (the only player that would have altered my plan to grab a QB at this point), I figured it was time to grab a QB. This was a relatively easy pick for me. I was mildly tempted to go for younger guys, but decided to cross my fingers and hope that Favre displays his usual Timex-like qualities and stays healthy this year. Of course, there is always the risk of having your starting QB and RB on the same team; that whole correlation thing...
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| 62 | leggestand
Sustainer
ID: 451036518
Fri, Aug 20, 2004, 16:52
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5.05 Jerry Porter, WR, Oak
As I said in pick 4.14; Jerry Porter was one of my top WR's remaining. I decided to take a chance and not draft a QB even though there were only two left that I wanted: Pennington and Garcia, and they would have to last 24 picks to get back to me.
About Porter, he is supposedly 100% back from his injury, and with the Oakland starting job all his (and limited back up WR's), he should be seeing a ton of balls this season. He is a prototypical WR, with good speed and size, and he is always a threat in the red zone. I didn't have to think to hard to make this pick, as I wanted to round out my WR corps with teams #1 WR's.
Soon after making this pick, though, I was praying that Pennington or Garcia would make it back to me at pick 6.14.
Projection: Similar to Price - 1200 yds and 8-10 TD's, depending on the QB.
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| 63 | Challenger
Donor
ID: 481126818
Fri, Aug 20, 2004, 18:11
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5.06 New England - DEF, NE
My point's projection chart says it's time to take a defense. The projected points had New England Patriots as the top team and no since arguing against that, afterall the Patriots are the defending Super Bowl champs.
In 2003 the Patriots were 1st in interceptions, 1st in Interceptions returned for touchdowns, 1st in defensive touchdowns, 5th in fumbles, & 6th in sacks, along with being 1st in allowing the least points against. Currently, I do not foresee any reason for the Patriots to drop off their 2003 performance.
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| 64 | MikeV
SuperDude
ID: 25924115
Fri, Aug 20, 2004, 18:14
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5.07 Justin McCareins, WR, NYJ
I'm expecting 1000+ yards and 10+ TDs, making McCariens the top Jet's receiver. I wanted as good a receiver as I could get with this pick to cover me until Boldin gets back. Porter and Jimmy Smith were my first choices but I'm not at all unhappy with what I got.
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| 65 | Taxman
Leader
ID: 031811922
Fri, Aug 20, 2004, 21:50
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5.08 Javon Walker WR GNB
Javon Walker is the first of several to come "feel" picks. Javon is entering his 3rd year after doubling hos rookie yardage with 9 TD's. Eventhough his QB led the league in TD passes last year, the GB tendancy the past two years is to have three adequate receivers and no go-to guy. Thus the "feel" which is based on his being 6'3" and will present match up problems for many of the leagure corners and become the go-to-guy in the red zone.
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| 66 | Ender
Leader
ID: 031811922
Fri, Aug 20, 2004, 21:52
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5.09 Rod Smith WR DEN
There's no deep analysis of this pick, sorry. I needed a 2nd WR I could depend on. I feel like I know what I am getting with Smith. He is a solid vet who should be good for 1000 yd and his share of TD's.
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| 67 | CanEHdian Pride
Leader
ID: 031811922
Fri, Aug 20, 2004, 21:53
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5.10 Duce Staley RB PIT
At one point, a couple of years ago, I thought Staley was the most overrated player in the league. It seems that he has slipped very much to other end of the extreme as injuries have hindered the progress of his career. Duce is big and fast. He runs hard between the tackles and excels once he breaks the first level. Duce showed nice poise last season in the face of a RBBC that he couldn't have been to pleased with. Now, the feature back in a run-oriented offense, Duce will put up respectable numbers and could have a breakout year.
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| 68 | deepsnapper
Leader
ID: 031811922
Fri, Aug 20, 2004, 21:55
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5.11 Quentin Griffin, RB, Denver Broncos
Given the choice of taking a wide reciever or a running back off the top of my ranking board, I chose to take the top rated running back.
Quentin Griffin isn't the prototypical Denver running back, but given his speed and quickness, he's going to gain yards at the running back posiiton in the Denver scheme of run blocking. The age of dual backs may be upon us in the NFL. Quentin's hero is Dunn by all accounts.
I was very happy to see Quentin fall to the end of round 5 and me for my# 3 back. Running backs are always the hardest position to fill with productive players. Add into that the 8 bye weeks which are on the schedule and we have teams on byes one week or another nearly 50% of the season. That's a lot of substitutions.
I wasn't confident he'd make the turn-around & come back to me in Rd #6, so I made the pick for Griffin now. It's almost as if I loose as many players in the draft on the short turn-around as I do on the long one. Go figure.
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| 69 | Motley Crue
ID: 58736522
Fri, Aug 20, 2004, 22:08
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5.12 Charles Rogers - WR, DET
This is where it starts getting juicy. Everyone has a quarterback at this point except me, leggestand, and TB. If I don't take one soon, I risk getting stuck with a poor quality starter. Pennington and Garcia are far and away the best 2 left, and I will settle for either. Since only Guru and Goatlocker pick (twice each) between now and my next choice, I take a slight risk and go for a WR. Those guys both have highly ranked QB's (Culpepper and McNair) and I doubt either of them are considering a backup QB at this point. Taking the highest ranked WR on my list now instead of a QB allows me to get a better ranked player now, while probably getting the QB I want on the turn. The gamble pays off on the next pick.
Rogers was impressive before his injury last year. He was clearly a favorite target of the Lions' QB, averaging 4+ catches per game. He didn't really register too much on the fantasy radar after he was hurt, because he never came back. One remembers comparisons to Randy Moss (which are tossed around these days like so many beads at Mardi Gras), but I'd be satisfied with 2/3 of Randy's production from Charles Rogers. I think it's reasonable to expect around 1,100 receiving yards and 6-8 TD's.
This is a huge upside pick. The Lions have definitely put alot of talented players together on offense, and if they can reach their potential together this season, we could be looking at an offense along the lines of the `99-`01 Rams. I have Coles in the #1 WR spot, and Rogers should be a solid #2. Obviously, I'm optimistic.
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| 71 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Fri, Aug 20, 2004, 23:47
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5.13 Dante Hall, WR, Kan
I was all set to pick Charles Rogers, and then he disappeared the pick before. Reggie Wayne and Ashlie Lelie were my backup choices, but upon further review, I thought that perhaps Dante Hall was worth a flyer. His return yardage for each of the last two seasons was worth about 100 points, so he doesn’t need too much in receiving yards or scoring to make him worthwhile. He's not a screaming deal or a risk free pick at this stage, but I do think he offers reasonable value at this pick.
Of course, teams could always kick away from him. But I assume they've been trying that for the last two years as well.
Or maybe I'm just partial to anyone named D. Hall.
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| 72 | GoatLocker
ID: 427272213
Sat, Aug 21, 2004, 11:50
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5.14 Ashley Lelie, WR, DEN
Needed another wide receiver, and feel fairly comfortable about him at this point in time. Rumors are that he won't be the number 2, but am not believing that one at all.
Hopefully he will produce at the level that Denver is looking at him to provide.
Cliff
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| 73 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Mon, Aug 30, 2004, 13:30
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Rationales for rounds 6-10
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