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0 Subject: RIFC - Draft Recap

Posted by: Guru
- [330592710] Tue, Aug 31, 2004, 10:30

RIFC Managers - You are each invited (though not required) to post your general reflections on the completed draft. Comments may be as detailed or as general as you wiah. As a catalyst, free free to comment on any of the following:

1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?

2. What were your favorite picks? Which do you wish you could do over?

3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?

4. What surprised you most about the draft?

5. If you could start over, would you do anything differently?

Non-managers are also welcome to post general comments on the draft, and to raise questions.
1Sludge
      ID: 54692111
      Tue, Aug 31, 2004, 14:26
Hmm... I guess I'll go first (watch as someone gets in theirs above mine). I'll be lazy and just follow the questions posited by Guru.

#1 I've spent so many years drafting, that I really don't have a definite plan anymore. It's like driving to work. After a while, you almost go on autopilot. Since I had the #4 pick, I knew without any shadow of a doubt that my 1st round would be a RB and that my 2nd and 3rd rounders would likely be WR, and that my 4th and 5th round picks would be RB and QB (not necessarily in that order). The only thing that could have upset that plan would have been the availability of Gonzo, but he went in round 3, so everything went according to how I expected it to.

2. Well, Ahman Green was my favorite. It's been a while since I've been in a position to select a stud RB. I somehow always seem to end up in the bottom half of drafts in my non-keeper leagues. I'm hoping that Donte' Stallworth becomes my favorite, though. I'd love to see him become a solid #2 and put up some good numbers.

3) With just a quick glance, I like the looks of Challenger and Ender. But deepsnapper looks to edge them out a bit. Green is solid, and with the recent injury to Anderson, Griffin should provide adequate Fraud Taylor insurance. With 1 of his 3-5 WR standing out a bit, he should have a solid WR corps. But, I could be completely wrong, and I certainly am not going to compute an overall team value based on the projections I've been using.

4- Boldin in round 4. Other than that, nothing really surprised me much.

V. Two things: I would have selected Davenport a round earlier. I should have known better, but for some reason, I was forgetting that this was a 14 team league and that I couldn't wait until the very end of the draft to pick a starter's backup for insurance. The second thing that I would do different is pay closer attention to interposition bye weeks. I was really good about it for the first 14 or so rounds, then I got careless and selected a kicker with the same bye week as my DL when I had planned on using only one roster spot to fill in for both of those players. Oh well, I don't think it will make that much of a difference in the end. I might have selected more RB or WR, but the way I see things is that if one of your starters goes down (much less one of your studs), you're pretty much done anyway. The chances of having an injury to one of your starters AND hitting one of the sleepers that nobody saw coming is pretty slim.
2culdeus@smu
      ID: 406391518
      Tue, Aug 31, 2004, 15:26
1) Well the plan at the outset was to go RB RB RB if it looked like people had done their homework (they didn't), I figured to get a very poor RB2 and was willing to take a backup to ensure somebody played out or go on matchups. I also planned on targeting top tier LBs very early on because of their value and a few select WRs. The trade that legge and I worked out was planned up to a week before the draft if certain things happened.

2) At the time I thought the combo of Bennett and Moss were A+ now Bennett is hurt and Moss may not be returning as many punts as I thought.

3) Leggestand and TB, they had the best grasp of the scoring system got solid talent and value all the way through and made no major mistakes.

4)Champ Bailey going when he did may go down as one of the biggest surprise picks of all time.

5)Double check the starters list for one. I would have waited on getting IDPs becuase for the most part people did not do their homework on IDPs and I could have waited and still gotten solid LBs and had better backups at every posistion.

I will post the DD output for team strengths vs. my schedule in a later post.
4leggestand
      Sustainer
      ID: 451036518
      Tue, Aug 31, 2004, 17:08
1. My strategy was to go RB-RB, unless one of the 1st tier WR's (Moss, Harrison, Holt) fell to me in the second round, and surprisingly, Holt did. Also, as Culdeus said, we had worked out a trade prior to the draft if certain things happened (primarily if a good RB fell to his 3.1 pick), so, I moved up to solidify my RB's with Westbrook. My next priority was getting best available WR's to round out the "power 5" starting spots. I also projected my top QB's and saw that I would not mind having 13 QB's, and decided to wait until Round 6 to get my 13th rated QB. Overall, I think my draft strategy worked well.

2. Favorite Picks:
Garcia at 6.14, and backed up with Delhomme at 11.05.
Westbrook at 3.01
Holt at 2.10
Chiefs at 14.10
Franks at 17.05
I had all these players ranked as top 15 in their position, and got them all later than I projected them to go.

Do Over Picks:
Gage at 12.10 - probably could of waited a while longer, or picked up Terrell instead.
Minor at 8.10 - He is still the starter, but I doubt it lasts through the season.

3. Prior to Bennett and Mike Anderson getting hurt, I would have said Culdeus...solid QB, great RB's, two top 20 WR's, and the best group of IDP's of all of us.

Now, though, I like MC's...solid QB, great/deep RB's, okay WR's (upgradeable by trading RB's later, though) and #1 TE. I think his defense is on the weaker side, though.

4. The Qb run in the middle of the 2nd round, and some of the IDP's that were passed over and fell to late draft picks.

5. I don't think so. I like my team, but if I could do get anything different, I would like a deeper RB corps.
5CanEHdian Pride
      ID: 387332812
      Tue, Aug 31, 2004, 22:18
"4)Champ Bailey going when he did may go down as one of the biggest surprise picks of all time."

In my defense. Due to the structure of the Kafenatid table I was under the impression that we needed to have a DB on our team. I went back and reviewed and realized that starting a DB is not mandatory. That's when I realized why everyone was holding off.
6TB
      Leader
      ID: 031811922
      Wed, Sep 01, 2004, 03:09
General Strategy
- Grab two starting RB and then the best WR available with the first three picks.
- Have core of offensive team after round five, 2 RB, 2 WR and starting QB.
- Grab early value at LB.
- Make picks based on value for each position and not based on “runs”
- Wait on DL and TE for late draft picks unless obvious talent slips.
- Draft a team that will beat Motley Crue in weeks 6 and 11 (not really, but he has become my favorite person to talk fantasy football with)

I was very excited and somewhat nervous to be invited to the RIFC. Not because I don’t have a good head for fantasy football, but because every draft pick is out there for the forum to scrutinize. I knew the league would be full of smart fantasy owners and it was going to be a challenge to have a good draft and compete this season. I spent a lot of time doing draft and player research, to be as prepared as I could for this draft. Of course, much of that goes out the window once the first pick is off the board. =)

Two things changed the complexion of the early rounds: Goatlocker failed to make his picks and we had an early run on QBs. This allowed me to draft a better second RB than I had projected. Through three rounds, the draft was looking good for me. The run on starting QB’s continued, though. When my fourth round came up, I would have shifted from drafting a 2nd WR to drafting a QB if Brooks, Green, or McNair were available. Prior to the draft, I projected that at least two of them would be available with my 5th round pick. None were available with my 4th round pick. The one positive from this is that I was able to draft a very solid trio of starting receivers.

In hindsight, the pick I dislike the most is drafting the Tampa Bay defense in the 6th round. I didn’t have a good feel for when defense would be drafted and went too early. I could have used this pick for a better RB#3. I was counting on a couple of my “sleeper” picks making it back to me. I made this mistake several times in the draft, assuming a player would make it back to me and not pulling the trigger when I should have. I hate the uncertainty I currently have from my RB3 position. Hopefully Dayne, Thomas, or Taylor produce and provide me some confidence before I have to use them.

Once we got past the 9th round, I simply drafted the best value at any position I felt I needed to have filled. Before the draft started, I tried to determine what positions/depth I would like to have and came up with a roster of 3 QB, 4/5 RB, 5 WR, 1 TE, 1K, 1/2 DEF, 1 DL, 3 LB, and 0 DB. When I looked at value on the board and still had a position to fill, that is what I chose. Well, almost. I passed on LB and WR several times even though they were my highest rated players. The reason I passed on higher ranked LB value to fill other positions was because the majority of the league did not seem to have a grasp on IDP scoring. That should change after a week or two when the top scoring LB’s are scooped up off of waivers. I passed on WR because I already had three solid starters and felt like there are always some decent fantasy back-up receivers on waivers, especially with the short bench.

I don’t have a favorite pick. I liked how the first three rounds went and I think I got good value with Galloway in the 12th and Grant in the 15th. Anthony Thomas could be great value in the 16th if he gets traded to Miami or if something happens to Jones. Truthfully, my team is unremarkable. I think it’s solid and should compete weekly (except for weeks 5 and 8…uggh), but as I look at the other teams in the league I see good competition. I took best starter projections from each team and matched them against my team for all 13 weeks. Please take this with a grain of salt (maybe a pound of salt.) #1) This is based on all starters staying healthy and their scoring versus their strength of schedule. #2) These projections are nowhere near perfect because I could not A) really predict the future and B) figure all the defensive scoring or return points. What the heck, this is just for fun so here is what I got:
Opponent-Win-Loss-Undecided (real game schedule results)
Culdeus 4-6-3 (2-0)
Perm Dude 10-3-0 (1-1)
Sludge 6-6-1 (0-1-1)
Leggestand 8-2-3 (0-1-1)
Challenger 4-6-3 (1-1)
Dilligads 9-2-2 (1-1)
Deepsnapper 11-0-2 (1-0-1)
CP 10-2-1 (2-0)
Motley Crue 8-3-2 (2-0)
Guru 10-2-1 (1-1)
Goatlocker 11-2-0 (2-0)
From those projections, it looks like Culdeus and Challenger drafted better teams than I did. That grain of salt I asked you to take, though, has many of the games projecting me winning or losing within mere points. I also looked at the real schedule and ran the same projections. In parenthesis after the overall score it projects me to beat Culdeus both games we play. So, overall if I played him 13 times, there is a good possibility that I would only win four of those games, but it looks like I got lucky on what weeks I play against him. It pretty much has me losing to everyone on weeks 5 and 8 and also shows me with a low scoring team on weeks 3 and 9. My strong weeks appear to be 6, 7, 10, 11, and 12. Yes, I am a freak about fantasy football and love crunching numbers. I am sure that I am jinxing my team by posting this and probably doomed to finish in last place.

Obviously, judging other teams is based upon the projections you think are accurate. There are several teams that look very good from a projection standpoint and others that look good from a depth standpoint. Early in the draft, I realized that Culdeus and I were using the same tools. He took just about every player I would have picked. At times, it was frustrating drafting two picks away from him. When he landed Bennett and S. Moss to go with Holmes, I was grumpy that he was building a stud team. Injuries are a bit of concern with his team right now, but I like how he drafted and think he got quality at every position. Challenger took a different approach to the draft and I believe when we read his recap he is going to be pleased with how his team turned out. He didn’t punt the WR position, but he took the risk that he could find quality at WR later and drafted strong everywhere else. He is strong on defense, IDP, kicker, starting QB and RB. Heck, I even like Freddie Jones at TE to play well if he stays injury free. The only “weakness” with his team is RB depth (which most of us have the same weakness) and his receivers. Motley Crue drafted a lot of RB. Three are current starters with two possibly considered top 12 backs. All of them could have value, which puts him a great position to upgrade through trades when other teams need a back. I like the majority of his team and think he got great value at QB, WR, and TE to go with his solid RB fleet. I have no idea who Scott Fujita is, but hey, that was 16th round.

Lots of surprises in this draft, but I will focus my thoughts on picks that IMO were taken way too early, great late round picks, or intriguing selections:
4.08 Anquan Boldin- Yes, he was greatlast year, but he is injured and will be out for at least the first five weeks. No telling if he will be 100% or if he will be as effective in this offense this season. I project 80 receivers to outscore him and he was the 16th receiver drafted. I think he would have been a good value pick later in the draft and he could provide a big boost the last couple of weeks
5.13 Dante Hall- I really hope I do not regret drafting Toomer over Hall. This pick has nagged me since I made it. Hall is now #2 on the Chiefs depth chart with injuries to Boerigter and Morton. He could see a significant increase in receiving production from last year. Regardless, as long as he stays healthy, he should be a scoring machine from return yards. On one projection sheet, with our league scoring rules, I had him as a top 8 receiver. He was the 27th receiver selected.
6.05 Champ Bailey- Not only did I have 60+ linebackers projected to score more points than Champ, but I had 50+ DB’s projected to score more. I have Ed Reed, who was drafted by the same team 13 rounds later, projected to score more points. Typically, you find that QB’s avoid throwing at the stud CB and you are going to have better luck (fantasy scoring) starting the guy opposite Champ. I am not going to list every DB pick, but this was the first of 11 taken in our league and only the top 3 or 4 are going to score something equivalent to the top 30 linebackers. These are usually the safeties because they are involved in more tackles.
6.13 Mark Fields- I thought there were some safer picks for LB at this point. I agree that the potential is there if he is 100%, but there are some younger and healthier LB who should be locks for 100+ tackles.
7.09 Michael Strahan- The best fantasy scoring DL in the game. I listed this pick because I felt that everyone else who grabbed their DL before the 13th round or later, grabbed too early. That is just my opinion, but DL is a low scoring position and the talent is fairly equal once you get past Strahan.
8.12 Rich Gannon- Homer pick by me. Drafted way too early
9.07 Julius Jones- After watching the last preseason game, I really think he got great value with this pick. He is going to get a lot more carries than Eddie George.
13.12 Dennis Northcutt- Great value if he continues to return punts and can get about 700 receiving yards this year. I had him much higher on my charts if he hits those numbers.
15.02 Josh Scobey- If he gets a significant amount of carries backing up Smith or filling in when Smith is injured this year, combined with his return yards, this could be a great pick. I really wanted Scobey.
19.07 Al Wilson- My 11th ranked LB and he was grabbed in the 19th round as the 29th LB selected. I thought about drafting him several rounds. Great late value.
19.12 Adam Archuletta- Top 5 DB (I rank him 3rd) grabbed in the 19th round. This guys gets tackles, sacks, ints, defenses passes. I still have one LB rated pretty high who is a free agent, but if you want to grab a DB late in the draft, this was the guy to grab.

This was a very fun draft. I talked with Motley Crue a couple time daily. I also talked with Taxman, Deepsnapper, and PD. I shared email conversations with a couple other members of the league and just had a great time. I am looking forward to playing out the season and seeing how it unfolds.
7Motley Crue
      Leader
      ID: 439372011
      Wed, Sep 01, 2004, 16:23
Draft Strategy, Pick Review

My strategy really began to take shape when the draft draft got me the 11th choice. All that was left (11,12,13,14) was the end of the first round. I chose the 12th pick, as I explained in my round 1 rationale, because I wanted to pick in the Top 3 in the second round, and I considered Barlow and Fred Taylor to be equivalent in terms of first round value. I wanted Travis Henry with that second round pick. I probably would have gotten him anyway if things had gone as planned, but I got him earlier than I expected when Goatlocker was unfortunately skipped. That incident bothered me slightly, and even though his team isn’t bad, I feel like he will have a lot to overcome to have a chance to win this league. But regarding my strategy, it was to get the best available RB in round 1, and then take Travis Henry in round 2. His average draft position was right around the 17th pick by my tools. Why the obsession with Henry? This guy was a mid-first rounder last year and he rushed for 1356 yards and 10 TD’s in 15 games and playing part of the season with a broken leg. I know about McGahee and I know he is supposed to be awesome, but when a guy puts up numbers like Henry, the team would be nuts to bench him. Fantasy owners are too worried about McGahee in my opinion. I refused to downgrade Henry on my board because of his having a great backup (which is not proven yet, BTW).

After round 2, I planned to ensure I got a Top 12 QB, which wasn’t hard, since you all left me Pennington at 6.03! That guy ought to be a good one this year. I didn’t have a set plan to go WR-WR-QB or TE-QB-WR. I prefer to see what is available and try to take the player with the most value at the position. I imposed a rule on myself not to take a defensive player until about round 7 or 8 and not to take a Team Defense until round 8 or 9 at the earliest. You only need 3 IDP’s to start so I wasn’t worried about losing out on ALL of the good LB’s. I knew I could wait and get some decent ones with 100 tackle potential late. I really wanted Strahan, however, and was saddened (literally) when he was taken 7 picks before I was going to take him. He is to DL’s what Tony Gonzalez is to TE’s. Having locked up one I wanted the other. Those guys are far and away the best at their respective positions, and I really wanted to have both to be able to blow opponents away at those 2 positions each week. I settled on Simeon Rice, who is clearly a Top3 DL, but ain’t no Strahan.

The only other rule after that until about round 14 was to take good value at RB when it was available and try to fill out my starting lineup, minus kicker. I really feel like Wheatley at 7.12 will help my team, because he looks like the starter on a team I am confident will run the ball well. William Green 2 rounds later could be the starter in Cleveland. If that happens, I will look to trade him. If not, the risk at that spot was worth it to me. With my 14th and 17th picks I grabbed 2 more RB’s (Fargas, handcuffed to Wheatley, and Hollings) that at some point this season could start. As others have noted, I am very solid at the RB position, and this seems like the best way to play it to me.

I was almost the last one to take a defense, and that may wind up biting me in the rear. I am taking a big chance on the Vikings upgrading their D this season. It seems like a reasonable gamble. If I’m wrong, I could be in trouble since there are only 8 defenses left as free agents. One other thing I did that is a little questionable was spending my 18th pick on Antonio Gates, the TE for the Chargers. This guy could turn out to be pretty good. And then he will still only catch 50 balls for 860 yards and 6 TD’s. With Gonzo on my roster, Gates won’t ever play. I think I got a little caught up in the SLEEPER game, to be honest. If he is great, then I will trade him. I’m sure there will be 6 or 7 owners with a bum at the position. It’s possible that I should have hedged my bet on the Minnesota Defense with that pick rather than take Gates.

So this is where I went strategically for this draft. I didn’t have a master plan, except to take what was given to me at RB. And I feel like that was mission accomplished. I don’t think I would have changed a thing. I’m really looking forward to this season. The competition should be great. I will go over a few picks I was surprised by and which teams I like in another post.
8Motley Crue
      Leader
      ID: 439372011
      Wed, Sep 01, 2004, 17:25
Surprise Picks, Critique of Teams

These picks surprised me the most. Some were shocking reaches, others were excellent values.

1.09 Marvin Harrison. Surprising that Ender decides to go WR here, rather than take Fred Taylor or Kevan Barlow. He recovers by taking Dillon and Martin with the next 2 picks. To me, the only first round WR is Randy Moss.

2.09 Donovan McNabb. Doubtful he would have remained for 11 more picks for Challenger to scoop, but the value wasn’t there in my opinion.

2.12 Rudi Johnson. Can’t believe he lasted this long. In a standard 12 team draft, this is the third round.

3.06 Ray Lewis. IDP’s already?! This ensures I won’t get any of the great ones, since I refuse to take one until round 7 at the earliest.

3.09 Curtis Martin. How the heck did he last this long? He’s an unchallenged starter, people!

4.08 Anquan Boldin. If he was coming back in Week 4 or 6, OK. He might not be back for half the season, and when he gets back, there’s no guarantee he’s the same force he was last season. This is a 9th or 10th round pick. Sorry.

4.13 Baltimore Defense. They better score 15 points a week for you at this spot, PD.

5.06 New England Defense. Ditto 4.13.

6.05 Champ Bailey. This pick has already been discussed above.

6.13 Mark Fields. I’m not sure he’s the best IDP on his team, and he was the fourth IDP taken in the draft. Yikes.

8.01 Kellen Winslow. Great Pick. What is he still doing on the board at this point?

8.04 Roy Williams. Too many good LB’s left to take a DB.

8.07 Mike Vanderjagt. A kicker? Already? I don’t like this pick simply because there will be some good kickers available on waivers this season.

10.06 Moe Williams. This pick is looking SNAZZY right now, with both Bennett and Onterrio seemingly out for a few weeks.

11.13 Josh McCown. Seemed like a reach to me. I bet McCown would have been around until the 15th round or so.

13.02 Carson Palmer. Shows what I know about QB’s hanging on the board. I never expected anyone to be targeting Palmer here besides me. I like this pick a bunch.

14.07 Jermaine Wiggins. As I said earlier, why? I really feel this guy could have been had off of waivers or as a FA.

16.08 Reggie Williams. This guy is the definition of the word sleeper. I like this pick very much.

17.02 Deion Sanders. Yep, he’s in the NFL. So are Jeff Feagles and Marco Rivera.

The teams I like:

sludge--solid QB duo; 3 starting RB's, one of which is stellar and one which could be great (Jones); 2 Pro Bowl type receivers; good kickers, TE's, and TM DEF; and above average IDP's. This is a very well rounded team.

Challenger--high risk/reward type QB's, but one should turn out pretty good; thin RB depth but what's there is premium; aging WR corps that I find below average; excellent TM DEF's; outstanding IDP's, but no depth. Challenger will have a shot because he is well rounded, too. His downfall could come from his rather ordinary crop of WR's, or if Portis or Chris Brown are injured.

Ender--Bulger and Rattay are both question marks coming into the season; strong 4 RB's, all could be starters during the season; strong WR depth ensures good weekly options; PK and TM DEF are both strong; best DL and DB in the game, with good LB's. If Bulger can be a Top 7 QB, and Curtis Martin lasts the season, Ender makes the Playoffs in our league.

deepsnapper--should name this team "The Infirmary"; Taylor, Faulk, K. Robinson, Shockey, et al are all injury risks. Solid QB in Trent Green; Griffin could be the next Portis, or at least Olandis Gary; good WR depth; decent PK and TM DEF; mediocre IDP's although the DB's should be good. If his players can all stay healthy, deepsnapper ought to be in the Playoffs, too.

Guru--Culpepper will finish the #1 or #2 QB; no RB depth, this position makes or breaks this team, Suggs could be awesome or could be the backup, Dom Davis could be the starter or could be injured; Mason, Hall, and Wayne are a killer 1-3, especially with potential for return yardage; top 3 TE; solid PK; Top 3 DL; good LB's and quality depth. I didn't realize Guru had picked such a good team. Very well-rounded. He may just qualify for next year's RIFC.
9Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Thu, Sep 02, 2004, 11:07
In order to fit in with my kids' summer schedules, we usually take a 2-week family “sit back and relax” vacation to our summer cottage on Lake Erie during the last half of August. Trying to balance a competitive draft (2, actually) with a dial-up connection and a desire to not to spend all day online is a tough combo, and I’m not sure how well I succeeded. It also doesn’t help to have Motley Crue snapping up half of your players one pick in front of you. I hope I returned the favor a few times.

My general plan was to fill offensive slots early, only take a TE early if I could get Gonzo or Heap, leave a kicker until very late, and work on most IDP slots in the second half. I’m not quite sure why I jumped on Jason Taylor in round 8, although it seemed like the thing to do at the time. I did feel better about that pick when Motley immediately took Simeon Rice with the next pick.

As Motley noted, my vulnerability is at RB. I won’t say weakness yet, because if Domanick Davis and Lee Suggs stay healthy all year, they could be a very solid tandem. But that is a big if. I thought about going after William Green as a Suggs handcuff, but my biggest fear is not that Suggs will be demoted, but that Cleveland will use each about half of the time. Suggs has done well in preseason, but Butch Davis has been non-committal. In retrospect, though, I probably should have targeted Tony Hollings earlier to insure against an injury to Domanick. Motley – maybe we should talk.

I didn’t set out to be vulnerable at RB. I just had trouble finding the right picks to strengthen the position. Notice that I didn’t say they weren’t there. I just didn’t find them – and that may have been a casualty of my desire to fit in a vacation around the draft.

I’m quite happy at QB. Perhaps I took Culpepper a few picks ahead of schedule, but with a 13th pick, I knew that RBs would be going fast, and I thought that going with Culpepper might be a viable way to differentiate. Hopefully, he’ll be able to hold on to the football this year. And handcuffing him to Frerotte was a critical component of that strategy. Skipping a starting RB in favor of Culpepper may come back to bite me, but it always feels good to have one of the uberstuds at a position.

I think the material surprise picks have all been mentioned already.

If this season goes the way of the RIBC, I’ll get crippling injuries in September to D. Davis, Suggs, Heap, and Mason. Or at least 3 out of 4. As the third leg of the inaugural season of the RotoGuru Challenge leagues, it would be nice to finish in the upper half. In Hoops, I scrambled up to 7th (out of 12) at the very end. In Baseball, I can’t seem to get above 15th. I consider football to be the weakest of my sports, but you never know…
10Perm Dude
      ID: 2343587
      Thu, Sep 02, 2004, 14:05
The first decision on the draft was which position to draft from. Given the quality of the managers and the big fantasy studs only available early, I decided to grab the earliest spot I could. With some groups it makes more sense to take a mid pick so you are not waiting a long time between picks, but I'd rather take a no-brainer stud early and work on research for the rest of the draft than to simply work on research for the entire draft.

Top down I'm pleased with the draft. With Hasselbeck & Palmer I have two of the top throwers in the game, who are going to get lots of yardage every game. While some QBs will be getting more TDs without a doubt, I have an affinity for quarterbacks who throw it up there 30-40 times a game and make their own chances.

The key to my running backs is Tatum Bell. If he gets significant PT than my combo (LT, Bell, Emmitt, Scobey, Toefield) looks to be quite good. Scobey in particular was a steal at that point in the draft.

Motley: While I've gotten some flack on my "early" Baltimore pick, the fact is that they did average 15 points a game under our scoring system in 2003. I think they are even better this year.

Wide receivers, it seems to me, are almost a crapshoot after the top guys. Ward seems to be a tough player and should be a primary receiver and get lots of chances all season, but I really went more with guys I thought would just get PT and therefore would get chances to get yards and scores. I'm happy with the guys I got, though I think I took Burleson a little early despite his recent promotion to the #2 spot.

I took a shot with Witten knowing Parcells' success with TEs in the past and knowing that Vinny likes to utilize the TE (much more than Carter would, for instance). He's had a very strong preseason, so this one might actually pan out.

For my IDPs, I'm counting on players coming back to have seasons that is at or near their norm. Mark Fields will be a monster, and while I could probably have taken him later (based on the comments here) his production at the end of the year will probably warrant the sixth round pick I used on him. I genuinely expect Wesley, Abraham, Fields and (yes) Little to be at or near the tops of their position at the end of the year.

Deion was a shot--thought he'd get a good number of opportunities since the Baltimore defense is so tough that a lot of other teams will face 3rd and long often. But I've already dropped him. Even if he plays every third down I don't think he'll get a lot of plays his way, which would be the only way to utilize him. I went with Minter who plays all the time and had a surprising 2 tds last year (though only 3 ints. Talk about efficient!)

Obviously, as with all teams, the ability to plug holes during bye-weeks and injury replacements will be a key, but going in I have the kind of team that can easily compete for the top. I wouldn't have take up Dave's invitation if I didn't think I can put together a team to do it. Despite some very good drafting elsewhere (which pushed me, I certainly will admit), I'd have to think I have a top 3 team coming out of the draft.

pd
11Taxman
      SuperDude
      ID: 029463114
      Thu, Sep 09, 2004, 00:01
On the eve of week 1's first game, I'll make a window in my (ridiculous) schedule to post my thoughts on the draft.

As to my draft, I dropped back to the 8 slot planning on either Lewis or James (took James) and focused solely on Manning for the 2nd pick (got him). This of course sets up a problem for the Colts off week. Not sweating tomorrow's problem, added Vanderjagt and Thorton (LB) with pick's 8 and 10. 3rd -6th rounds found value picks on the board with Kevin Jones and 3 WR that are the tallest WR's on their respective teams and with "new" "less contact" allowed by DB, each could post break out seasons. I continued to find value as late as the 19th round with B Engram, Sea KR and #3 WR. I like my team's potential to produce steady points through out season (except Colts off week).

Draft surprises and comments

1.12 Taking Barlow with T Henry, M Faulk and S Davis still on the board.

3.06 Ray Lewis and 14.13 Baltimore D..I thought both picks were at least a round early even though representing potential studs at respective slots. I made a similar early stud pick at K with Vanderjagt, so maybe I shouldn't throw stones.

5.13 D Hall The Guru trounced several of us last year in a H2H league and Hall was a primary weapon for him as a KR only. With Hall's emergence as a starting WR...this is the best value pick of the draft.

6.05 Champ Bailey I do not project any DB's to be in the top 20 IDP's. This was the worst value pick of the draft.

15.08 Kurt Warner and 16.07 Drew Brees Eventhough both will start season as starters, they represent what happens in a slow draft when focus is lost. Needing an off week QB to cover for Manning, I chose Warner and sure enough he was named starter. Bad news is he has same off week as Manning. Could be moot point as most think Manning (the rookie) will be starting by the 5th week. To cover that boo boo, selected Brees next and like Warner, may not be starting past the first few weeks.....sigh... Dumbest pick(s) of the draft.

Predictions for playoff qualifiers, in no particular order: Guru, Challenger, PD, TB, Culdeus, Ender, Sludge and Taxman.
12Motley Crue
      Leader
      ID: 439372011
      Thu, Sep 09, 2004, 12:29
Draft surprises and comments

1.12 Taking Barlow with T Henry, M Faulk and S Davis still on the board.


I'll take that as a challenge (not that I will have any influence on the results).

I took Barlow at 1.12, and then got Henry with my next pick, 2.03(where Barlow certainly would not have been available, especially if GoatLocker had made his picks). I guarantee that both Henry and Barlow will finish this fantasy season with more points than either Marshall Faulk or Stephen Davis.
13GoatLocker
      Sustainer
      ID: 060151121
      Thu, Sep 09, 2004, 14:01
Just now getting a chance to sit down and get this written.
Has been a really crazy fall, not common for me.

Again, sorry to everybody about my impact to the draft.

On to the questions.

1. What was your plan/ strategy entering the draft?
My original plan, which obviously never happened had been to take the two highest ranked running backs with the 14th and 15th picks. From there based on who was available, I had intended to pick up two WRs and then look from there as to where to go.
Had expected to not go after any IDPs until the 12th round.

Were you able to execute as you had planned?
Obviously not, but still don’t feel too bad about where I ended up and how I ended up adapting my choices to need and availability.
At the end of 4 rounds with a QB, 2 RBs, and a WR, I decided that the next two rounds needed to be used for another WR and another RB.
Took my team D and two IDPs earlier than I had planned, but thought that I was in a situation where I might be able to improve my team a little based on who was available at the time.

2. What were your favorite picks?
With the make-up of my team at that point, was very happy to get Charlie Garner at 6.01.
Hoping that the reunion with Gruden will help him perform better than everybody has expected him to.
I really like the Kellen Winslow pick at 8.01. Was very surprised to still see him there and just thought it was a really good High Risk / High Reward choice at that point in time.
Which do you wish you could do over?
Do over picks would probably be Ashlie Lelie at 5.14, but really felt I needed to go WR here and not sure of the group that went shortly after that. Stallworth and Givens might not have been as far of reachs as I thought, but at the time I felt Lelie was the right move, just not so sure now.
Other do over would be Tyrone Calico at 9.14. Hated that choice as soon as I made it.
Covered it up by picking up Bennett at 12.01

3. Looking over the other teams, which ones do you like the most (other than you own)?
Really 4 teams that I like, and all for different reasons.

Challenger – Bold move to pick up Ray Lewis that early as potentially the top IDP, but still like the RB, WR, QB mix even with the Patriots thrown in early. The Defense that might be affected the most by the rule changes could be the Patriots though. Guess we will know after tonites game.

Taxman – I’m big on Kevin Jones. Think the third round was early, but hard to tell with 14 teams. Really like the RB, WR, QB mix.

Deepsnapper – Very, very high Risk, but if Taylor and Faulk can give him 28 starts from the two, he could be in real good shape. Again, like the WR, TE, QB mix.

Motley Crue – If you haven’t figured it out yet, I really think that RB is big. Even with as late a choice as he had, I like the mix that MC managed to put together for his RB, WR, QB group.

4. What surprised you most about the draft?
My typical comment from a Guru draft. The depth of knowledge of everybody playing. No such thing as a sleeper lasting long. Was really shocked to see Winslow available when I took him that late.

5. If you could start over, would you do anything differently?

Well of course, not miss the first two rounds. Other-wise, feel pretty good about how my draft came out.


14leggestand
      Sustainer
      ID: 451036518
      Thu, Sep 09, 2004, 14:22
Man, I didn't realize my team is that bad! I think my team looks pretty good, yet only one person (post 3) thinks I have the goods to go far. I am not making the lists of surprise picks either, which I must have a lot of if my team is that crappy. Maybe no one can see my team...
15Ender
      Donor
      ID: 013443221
      Thu, Sep 09, 2004, 14:57
I will do my best to get a recap up in the next couple of days. School has kept me really busy this year.
16Motley Crue
      Leader
      ID: 439372011
      Thu, Sep 09, 2004, 15:14
legge,

I will say a few things about your team. Keep in mind the season hasn't started yet, and from year to year a vast array of players perform in different ways than their histories might indicate they would.

QB: Garcia, Delhomme. I'm sorry, I love Garcia, but he is a huge injury risk. And you do not want to go through the season with Delhomme as your starter. He's not Steve Beurlein circa 1998, he's more like Tom Brady circa 2003. He's solid, but unspectacular. You can count on him not having many high-scoring weeks. Maybe Delhomme steps it up a notch this season, though. Who knows? Grade: C-

RB: Alexander, Westbrook, et al. You have Alexander and Westbrook with both of their respective backups. That's the good. The bad is that neither James Jackson nor Travis Minor will score many points for your team this year. Neither one is even a good bye week replacement, IMO. And if Westbrook gets hurt, I seriously doubt Mahe will step in and perform similarly. Grade: B-

WR: Holt, Price, Porter, A. Davis, Gage. Holt is your second best player, and a superstud. Price is a question mark but should be good. Porter also should be pretty good. These three are solid starters (I like them better than my own). Davis may just be the Browns' #1, and Gage is a sleeper (someone should have good WR numbers for Chicago). Your WR corps is the deepest aspect of your team, and I think it could be awesome if Price, Porter, or Davis achieve their potential. Your strongest suit. Grade: B+

TE, PK, DEF: Franks I hate. He's pretty much a bum in my opinion. I had him ranked very low. He just isn't enough of a fantasy force anymore. Longwell is very solid and you should be set with him all season. Chiefs D was good in some fantasy games last year, but if they repeat their Points Allowed average from last year, you will be sorry. Grade: D+

IDP's: Bulluck and Draft are butt-kickers. Freeney is a solid Top 10 DL. I like Barber, but I explained in my rationale why I like Fujita better. Hey, you know the Chiefs LB's will be making some tackles since everyone runs on them. Grade: B

It's definitely not that you have a bad team. You might have the best team. We'll obviously know more real soon. Look for free agents that could help you upgrade. I might be interested in a RB for WR trade if one of your 5 WR's step up and you're willing to part with him.
17leggestand
      Sustainer
      ID: 451036518
      Thu, Sep 09, 2004, 15:46
Wow, ask and I shall receive!

MC, your analysis could be right on, but like you said you never know. Since you basically destroyed my team, I may have to do an MC analysis in the near future :)
18Motley Crue
      Leader
      ID: 439372011
      Thu, Sep 09, 2004, 15:51
Hey, what kind of friend would I be if I wasn't honest?

Seriously, in fantasy football, nothing is predictable. Especially between the draft and the first day of the season. I'm definitely not trying to bash you.

The way I graded was purely static. I didn't compare your players by position to anyone else's. I didn't use a bell curve. And I haven't gone through everyone's team like this, but I can promise that no one wound up with all A's and B's. Everyone, including me, got a D or two. I may do my own team here in a miute if I have a chance. It will probably be slightly biased, though, because how could I not like the guys I drafted?
19Ender
      Donor
      ID: 013443221
      Thu, Sep 09, 2004, 16:18
MC, you got time to post your evaluation of your own team? Or others for that matter? It's interesting reading other people's opinions (whether or not you take the time to comment on my team is irrelevant to me).

Like I said, I'll recap the draft from my perspective perhaps as early as tonight. I may even write an MC style evaluation of my own team.

Kudos to those who have already done it. This is has been one of my favorite threads from the other Invitational leagues.
20Challenger
      Donor
      ID: 481126818
      Fri, Sep 10, 2004, 01:20
Strategy - First, I originally planned to use Draft Dominator's recommendations throughout the draft. When I saw TB posting in another thread before the draft he was using DD, I became concerned others might try to at least attempt to level the playing field by using DD. My thoughts were confirmed as the draft unfolded. Once confirmed I quickly assembled an Excel sheet from various draft rankings and consolidated them into one.

2nd - Before the draft I set my WR strategy on simply if I could not land a consistent top WR then I would hold off and go with a WR by committee approach and wait to fill these slots while I landed other glamour players at what other managers might perceive as lesser positions. I have successfully used this plan in previous drafts which I won championships.

3rd - With the short bench in mind, I set out to make sure I did not have to many starters with the same bye week. I succeeded in this plan as currently I only have one week to scramble for replacements. However, this may have also hurt me as I passed over some quality players I would have preferred to have selected.


Favorite picks - Let's see, I missed out on Green. I passed on Holt in favor of McNabb and choose Ray Lewis way before 99.9% of most fantasy managers would have done, but I think I like my selection of Keyshawn at 7.06 has the best possibility of paying off big time. He'll have a lot of footballs thrown to him, but will he be involved in the red zone offense so he may garner in those tds?

Favorite pick's by other team - With reports of Bennett possibly being out until October, Ender's pick of Moe Williams at 10.06 is a steal, especially with O Smith pending suspension. (3 picks later and he was mine.) Also Julius Jones at 9.07 by MikeV could be another. Jones hasn't been disappointing in preseason, but will he continue to receive as many touches during the regular season?

Do over? - Ahem, hindsight tells me Ray Lewis might have been had later. Probably should have gone RB here as originally planned, but as the American Natives say "What-to-hey", I have the best active LB in the NFL!!

Quick glance at the other teams - TB - 1st impression is WOW! Overall a very good, well-rounded draft with QB as the weakest spot.

As far as rating the other teams, each team has the strengths/weaknesses and how well they do will be determined by their managing skills.

Concerning RB position, most teams are in the same position, if a starter goes down we're in trouble if our backups are not receiving significant playing time. Any team with 3 starting RB's on their roster has an immediate advantage.

What surprised you most about the draft? - THE SPEED OF THE DRAFT! I did not in anyway expect to have the draft done so early and I applaud the group as a whole for their attentiveness.

If you could start over, would you do anything differently? Not set a que for myself! Every time I preset a que, those players were not available to me when my turn finally arrived. For instance, after my 5.06 selection of the Patriots I set a que of Q Griffin or Shockey for my next pick. Deepsnapper kindly took them both thank you before my turn came back around.

Good Luck to All!


...retal
21Motley Crue
      Leader
      ID: 439372011
      Fri, Sep 10, 2004, 12:02
OK, since I promised, here’s the critique of my draft and my team.

QB:When I took Pennington (6.03), I already had 2 RB’s, 2 WR’s and Tony Gonzalez. It was the perfect time to take a QB and Pennington was the best one left by a mile. He is a very good QB, with a solid cast of offensive playmakers surrounding him. The Jets spread the ball around, they have a better-than–average running game, and Pennington is very accurate. I think the value of this pick was excellent. The same for Brad Johnson (11.12), who is totally underrated. He also spreads the ball around very well, doesn’t take many sacks, and plays in a West Coast offense with lots of dump-offs to RB’s. He can throw for 300 yards and 2 TD’s any week. I may start him over Pennington certain weeks if the match up warrants it. They have different bye weeks, so all set there. Grade: B+

RB: Barlow at 1.12, not many people would argue with. His Antsports ADP is around there, and he likely would have been gone if I waited until the next round to get him. Henry was a reach at 2.03, but I wanted him very badly, and he certainly would have been gone at 3.12. These 2 will play every week for me (except their byes) and should be a studly starting tandem. I am very unconcerned about McGahee, because he has no experience in the NFL. You don’t take away a stud RB like Henry’s job because you have a loud mouthed first rounder pouting over playing time. McGahee will definitely be a starter at some point. Barring injury to Henry, it will be next year, though. The key to my RB’s, though is my depth. Wheatley in the seventh was one of the last starters on the board, and by taking Fargas later on (14.03), I have the Oakland versions of Boardwalk and Park Place. I don’t expect huge numbers out of these guys. I only expect to play which ever one is getting the most touches in weeks 3 and 7 (bye week fill-in). Since people kept leaving potential starting RB’s on the board, I increased my depth even more with William Green (9.12) and Tony Hollings (17.12). Green looks like he’s going to start this week, and Dom Davis didn’t make it through the season healthy last year, so these are valuable investments. At some point this season, I could have 5 starting RB’s on my team. Grade: A-

WR: Coles at 4.03 was a good pick, IMO, because I had him going in the late third round. He’s my 13th ranked WR. That hurts because he is my best player at the position. This is certainly one of my weak suits, because I don’t have any depth either. I took Rogers in the fifth (5.12), crossing my fingers that he can be a consistent #1 for Detroit. Not a great thing to have to pin your hopes on. I then neglected the WR position until taking Kennison at 12.03. I hate Kennison. And he will probably be a starter for me most weeks. I dislike guys that average 50-60 yards over the course of the season. He’ll probably have 2 or 3 big games and then disappear for a half year. But we have to start 3 WR’s, so I grabbed the best available at the time. It seemed like people really were taking a lot of WR’s in the middle rounds, and every time it got to me, all of the values were gone, so I’d take a RB. Then I rounded out my corps with Northcutt (13.12). He’s better than his reputation, but I’m not counting on him for much. If not for the PR yards, he probably would have gone undrafted. Grade: C-

TE, PK, DEF: I’ve bragged on Gonzo enough, so I won’t say anything about him. I also have great “depth” at the position with Gates (18.03). That is probably a mistake in this league; I likely should have used my 18th round pick on another D-lineman or linebacker. Hanson will be a big surprise this year, IMO. The Lions running game will be so much better it will provide many more FG opportunities. He missed one FG last year, and only one PAT in three seasons. The Vikings defense I won’t try to defend now. They may be very good or awful. I will call them average for purposes of the grade. Grade: B-

IDP’s: Barnett is a star in the making. Fujita no one has ever heard of, but he’ll be Top 25, I would venture. Simeon Rice is a Top 3DL, and Archuleta will wind up scoring like a good LB this season. Grade: C+

Summary: B+, A-, C-, B-, C+
That’s about a B average, and that should be good enough to get me into the playoffs. The key is being well-rounded and not too weak at any one position. Of course, this is all on paper. We’ll see how well these guys play this week.
22Ender
      ID: 0442215
      Sat, Sep 11, 2004, 00:05
1. My strategy for the draft was not very complicated. I wanted to grab 2 RB first then go with the best available player. I wanted to wait awhile for a QB, but I was willing to grab one early if the right opportunity presented itself.

I blew that strategy with my 1st pick :P AT the time I made the pick I felt that the running backs available were all equivalent and I would just choose from the ones that made it back to me on the turn. There are only 3 100% lock studs at WR IMO so I went that route. I was late on my pick and Pride grabbed Moss so I was down to 2 choices so I went with Harrison and don’t regret it. I am a Colts fan and will enjoy cheering for him each week.

2. My favorite picks were Moe Williams in the 10th round which was made partly because I needed to cover myself for my blunder in having my top 2 RB’s with the same bye week L and partly because I saw Bennett limp off the field in the preseason game. Williams is good around the goal line and on 3rd downs under normal circumstances (especially thinking that Smith would be out during the week I would need Williams most). Thinking about it more, I’m not sure that Bennett’s injury happened right before or after my pick, but I’ll reap the benefits either way. I also liked Jerry Rice in the 17th round. I think he will be far more valuable than a 17th round pick. I also liked Ayodele in the 20th simply because I had to have 1 Boilermaker. He may not make it through the season on my roster, but he is solid and could fill in if necessary.

3. I like culdeus, TB, and Taxman (in no particular order). I think they will definitely make the playoffs.

4. I was surprised at how quickly we got the draft done.

5. If I could start over again I would have waited longer to draft my team D. I think over-valued that position. I would have done something to not have my RB’s with the same bye week. I don’t know who I would have taken instead because I think they were good values and I believe they will produce, but that was a gaffe I could have prevented. I may have waited on Strahan and would have waited on Harrison. AT the time I felt I needed to compensate for a bit of perceived weakness in the early rounds (which may not actually be the case because I am satisfied with my roster) by having the top players at their respective positions. I also totally blew it (just as culdeus did) thinking that we had to have a DB in our lineup. Harrison is the 1 DB who can score like a LB and is the kind of hitter I like to watch (he ticks me off at times, but you have to admire the way he attacks from his position).

I am excited to get the season going and really like my team at this point. I think I have players who will put up points consistently from week to week even if they don’t explode very often. I get tired of pulling my hair out week to week when a guys posts a huge week followed by week that makes it look like he wasn’t even on the field. Best of luck to everyone and the race to the playoffs is on!
23Motley Crue
      Leader
      ID: 439372011
      Mon, Nov 29, 2004, 14:22
Wow, what a great thread. Looks like my "guarantee" in post 12 was way off. I haven't looked at Faulk's numbers but he probably has Henry and Barlow beat combined.

How wrong was I about McGahee and Henry? I feel really bad for Henry because he has proven that he is a really good RB. Too bad he can't stay healthy.

Looks like a lot of us liked Challenger's team going in and he hasn't disappointed so far. I also called Ender and Guru as playoff teams, while sludge is still in contetnion. Only deepsnapper's team is messing up my predictions. He drafted well, but the underperformances of Fred Taylor and Faulk, along with the dearth of WR's has hampered his team apparently.

My team has really benefitted from waiver wire transactions. Except for Antonio Gates, my best players all came from the wire: Kerry Collins, McGahee, Kaeding, Indianapolis Defense, John Abraham, Terrence McGee, and Ed Reed. I also feel like the trade I made with leggestand has helped both of us immensely. I am 7-5 since that trade, and I believe that will be 9-5 when the results are posted for week 12. After losing 7 straight to start the season, I have now won 7 straight to get to .500.
24leggestand
      Leader
      ID: 451036518
      Mon, Nov 29, 2004, 14:45
MC, that trade has been great so far. I am 9-3 since we made it, and barring huge games from Holt and Favre (knock on wood), I should be going 11-3.

One surprising thing I just noticed is that I have none of my original WR's. I got Mason through a trade and my other 3 (Morton, McCardell, and Lloyd) through free agency.
25culdeus
      ID: 119141810
      Mon, Nov 29, 2004, 15:50
Yeah, this was the year of the waiver wire championship. I can't remember so many undrafted people becoming downright studs like this year. A very odd year overall.
26Motley Crue
      Leader
      ID: 439372011
      Mon, Nov 29, 2004, 16:16
Well, obviously Gonzo won you 8 or 9 of those 11, legge.

; )
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