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0 Subject: Question about betting on Football

Posted by: WiddleAvi
- [509441912] Tue, Oct 19, 2004, 14:48

Before I ask my question can someone explain how in the world Miami is only 6.5 point underdogs to the Rams ?? I was expecting a 15 point line !!!

Anyway does anyone know what will cause a bookie to change it to -120 instead of -110. I am sure it's to get more people to bet on the other side but why not change the line 1/2 a point ?? Basiclly my question is when do they move line and when do they just change the vig ??
1MadDOG
      ID: 599531817
      Tue, Oct 19, 2004, 14:53
Not sure about the second part but I think I would stay away from that game.


When you see a spread that doesn't look right that is definitely a bad sign.
2MadDOG
      ID: 599531817
      Tue, Oct 19, 2004, 14:55
BTW, I was just talking about this in the Best Bets thread last week.

I saw that Detroit was only favored by 2 points over Green Bay and thought WTF?

Green Bay had just been slaughtered 3 straight times at home and now they were only 2 point dogs to Detroit in Detroit where the Packers have never played well.


The result was that the Packers creamed the Lions.

Get my drift?
3kev
      ID: 43111845
      Tue, Oct 19, 2004, 15:26
Both points

1) The Rams come off a Monday Nighter in which they did not look very good, then go on the road, to Miami, to play on grass- something they also are not very good at. You usually have to be a pretty dominant team on both sides of the ball to be favored over a TD on the road. You will notice Philly and Seattle are also under a TD against inferior opponents on the road.

2) A bookie will move the juice from -110 to -120 if the line is about to move, but hasn't moved yet. At least, that is what Vegas does. If you see a line at -6.5 -120, it means the line probably will move to 7 sooner rather than later, so they are going to have you pay more to get it at 6.5

Hope that helps.
4WiddleAvi
      ID: 309491913
      Tue, Oct 19, 2004, 15:52
On the Miami game. I am a Dolphin fan. I watch every game. The Dolphins are the worst team in football. It's not even close. The Bills were favored by 6.5 over Miami. How can the Rams be favored by that same number. Granted it's in Miami but come on. Well I guess we'll see if it pays off for me come sunday.
5Great One@Work
      ID: 40822239
      Tue, Oct 19, 2004, 16:37
home and away is worth a 6 point swing (3 for each team...)

If it was St.Louis at home it would be double digits.

If a game has the home team -3, then its pretty much a draw/pick 'em. If there is no line or just 1. Than that means the away team is favored is expected to win.
Everything starts with home team -3 and moves from there.

I hope that made some sense.
6MadDOG
      ID: 599531817
      Tue, Oct 19, 2004, 19:03
Widdle Avi, I guess you didn't see that Tampa Bay offense move up and down the field pretty much at will against the Rams last night on Monday Night Football.

Miami might be able to get their offense going against the Rams.

Like I said up top, I would stay away from this one unless you are gonna bet on the Dolphins.
7azdbacker
      ID: 56849916
      Tue, Oct 19, 2004, 19:37
kev covered both points well. There is nothing strange about the Miami line, just like there was nothing strange about the Detroit/Green Bay line. So many people like to look at what a team did last week and think it means that will continue. Tennessee looks great, GB looks terrible. What happens the next week? The opposite. This happens all the time and people are always shocked by it.

I think Miami (who finally ran the ball ok last week against a better defense than the Rams have) has a good chance at their first win of the season this week. STL is not good on grass, as kev pointed out, and usually makes enough turnovers to keep the other team in the game. The Rams will have trouble running the ball this week, that much is certain. If Miami gets a couple picks, they should win.
8azdbacker
      ID: 56849916
      Tue, Oct 19, 2004, 19:38
But I wouldn't take it now - I expect people like Widdle to bump this line over 7 by week's end.
9WiddleAvi
      ID: 39401623
      Tue, Oct 19, 2004, 19:47
Compared to the Dolphins the Tampa offense is the Colts !!! Without a doubt the worst offensive line in football. The only hope the Dolphins have is they have an amazing defense. But I think in every game except one the Dolphins offense has thrown an Interception for a TD. I am as big a Dolphin fan as they come but I am being realistic. And the only way the Dolphins running game has looked decent is because they had a couple of big runs. Take away those few (very few) big runs and you are looking at a 2 yard per carry avg. (Total 417 rushing yards - If you take away the top run from each rusher you end up with 289 on 126 carries !!! You only have to take away 6 rushes to end up with that. A solid 2.2 YPC) That the Dolphins put up 13 points against the Bills is a miracle in itself. Thats the most points the Dolphins have put up all season. 6 games and 13 points was their highest point total. The Dolphins made the Bengals defense look like the Ravens !! The Dolphins have 2 possible wins this season. They play Arizona & SF. I doubt they win those. 0-16 here we come.

Anyway enough ranting.
10MadDOG
      ID: 599531817
      Tue, Oct 19, 2004, 19:54
If the Dolphins have no chance in this game then why did the oddsmakers make them only a 6.5 point underdog?

Do you know how much money is riding on these lines? You think they are gonna put a line out there that they are gonna get buried on.

I think Miami is side to be on in this game.

11WiddleAvi
      ID: 39401623
      Tue, Oct 19, 2004, 20:05
The line is not who the linemakers think is going to win. The line is what the linemakers think will get 50% of the betting public on each side.
12MadDOG
      ID: 599531817
      Tue, Oct 19, 2004, 20:09
That's what they want you to think. That the actual number means nothing.


13MadDOG
      ID: 599531817
      Tue, Oct 19, 2004, 20:13
You think Detroit -2 last week was a line that they were gonna get equal action on both sides on?


Every football fan in America saw the Packers get destroyed on Monday Night Football.
14WiddleAvi
      ID: 39401623
      Tue, Oct 19, 2004, 20:55
Isn't there a site that posts what action is being bet on each game ?? Gives an idea what percentage of the public is betting on each side ?? I think I remember someone posting something like that here.
15louky
      ID: 24193023
      Tue, Oct 19, 2004, 21:06
madDOG, do think that if all the action coming into Vegas was on the Lions that the line wouldn't move? Vegas works on %'s there very happy with the 10%... and I bet the Packers, so maybe that kept the line down.
16culdeus
      ID: 409551717
      Tue, Oct 19, 2004, 21:09
I still reject the fact that the line is set to get 50/50 action. If this is the case they are doing a very poor job because well more than half the games end up with 65/35 or greater action. But that isn't the time or place to discuss this very hot button (and tired) issue.

The -120 or -115 will usually happen around TD and FG lines, people won't want to lay a TD so they'll hold off moving it to a TD line by making it heavy. You rarely, if ever, see a -120 line moving away from the TD or FG line (except if it is exactly 3 or 7), that's just the way they do it, to keep the money moving till it gets too heavy and they have to tilt it to a score.

Wagerline the site we use for best bets tracks % of people play wagering on one side and can be a good source of pub info, but remember they are playing with play money. Carib allows you to look at "player picks" if you are a bettor to get a feel for where the pub is. The pub is doing so great it's ridiculous this year, last week the pub was practially undefeated with heavy bets on STL, MIN, NE, SDG, and others. Basically every pub game hit last week and the books are hurting this year overall. The idiots still go for heavy parlays and teasers to keep people in the nice cars, but this looks to be a bad year for the books overall.
17pete rock
      ID: 559461221
      Tue, Oct 19, 2004, 22:31
this is my theory of how lines are set....all home teams are given an automatic 3 points...regardless of how good or bad they are...that's due to home field advantage and the obvious better records at home then on the road....so if a team is playing at home and are favored by -3, the game would be a pick on a neutral settng....

does anyone else feel the same way...or am i completely crazy
18pete rock
      ID: 559461221
      Tue, Oct 19, 2004, 22:32
sorry...didnt read post 5 before posting...
19TacoJohn
      ID: 24941616
      Wed, Oct 20, 2004, 01:05
culdeus-

i'd like to hear more. i definitely was under the impression that lines are almost always very close to 50/50 and it's very bad otherwise.

from my finance classes it would seem to me that the bookies would be primarily to reduce risk as much as possible. also, that it would be impossible to beat the betting public with a line because of the power of markets to predict accurately.
21culdeus
      ID: 409551717
      Wed, Oct 20, 2004, 07:13
That's real money from caribsports
22culdeus
      ID: 409551717
      Wed, Oct 20, 2004, 07:36
Dammitt!!! the margins looked fine someone has to tell me how to post tables.
23culdeus
      ID: 409551717
      Wed, Oct 20, 2004, 07:40
# 337 10/23 2:00pm Bowling Green vs Ohio Bowling Green 98.75%
Ohio 1.25%
320 Bets

24culdeus
      ID: 409551717
      Wed, Oct 20, 2004, 07:51
I have always felt and I think people that bet for a long time do feel that vegas doesn't take sides, but they set the line to get the MOST action.

They grind you down on the 10% over several bets. Picking winners at a 60% clip is tough.

The money is to be made where you pick strictly sides and totals, don't pound any one game too much, and don't take too many games.

You lose money in the long run taking parlays above two teams teasers above 0 teams and SU chalk.

People don't realize how much chalk is in parlays and they'll do the crazy 6 teamer or whatever.

Look at a 4 teamer.

Flip a coin 4 times and 1 out of 16 all 4 will be heads.

Vegas pays 10-1. And it only gets worse from there.

There are some values in parlays, with series lines you can hedge it back for good payout.

i.e. the first round NBA playoffs are always good to go all chalk on an 8 team and wait it out and
buy off at any elimination games.

Last year that meant only one buy off and a 5-1 payout.

25MadDOG
      ID: 599531817
      Wed, Oct 20, 2004, 08:51
I guess that chart above sure puts that "oddsmakers are trying to get equal action on both sides myth" to death.


Just look at that. Amazing.
26ukula
      ID: 7941206
      Wed, Oct 20, 2004, 08:59
You know your stuff culdeus.

Do you shop for lines? It's amazing how much extra value you can get just by shopping for favorable lines and odds.

Is the caribsports info available to the public or do you have to open an account? I subscribe to the theory of contrarian sports betting. Stay away from the public favorites and hop on the beaten down underdogs late in the week to take advantage of the line changes.

27culdeus
      ID: 409551717
      Wed, Oct 20, 2004, 19:01
You know, I'm a real small time bettor. I do it for fun and a little profit. I can't imagine watching a sporting event without $5 on it anymore.

I gamble far, far, far more at dice tables. .7% vig there.

I have no interest in Poker or BJ, too many variables and you don't know how much your betting until it's gone.

I don't bother shopping for lines anymore, I used to have 3 accounts but rolled everything to carib for one reason.

The backwards if-win bet.

You can bet a game in the future and if-win it for the current day's game. In this way you can shop for a big middle to hedge off a sure win.

Of course you're getting back pennies, but I always like to game the system.


28culdeus
      ID: 409551717
      Wed, Oct 20, 2004, 19:05
# 407 10/24 1:00pm Bills vs Ravens (Week 7) Ravens 65.37% 999 Bets
Bills 34.63%
# 409 10/24 1:00pm Lions vs Giants (Week 7) Lions 19.85% 1068 Bets
Giants 80.15%
# 411 10/24 1:00pm Eagles vs Browns (Week 7) Eagles 89.85% 1832 Bets
Browns 10.15%
# 413 10/24 1:00pm Jaguars vs Colts (Week 7) Colts 80.51% 826 Bets
Jaguars 19.49%
# 415 10/24 1:00pm Titans vs Vikings (Week 7) Vikings 78.28% 755 Bets
Titans 21.72%
# 417 10/24 1:00pm Chargers vs Panthers (Week 7) Panthers 27.54% 719 Bets
Chargers 72.46%
# 419 10/24 1:00pm Rams vs Dolphins (Week 7) Rams 87.91% 794 Bets
Dolphins 12.09%
# 421 10/24 1:00pm Bears vs Bucs (Week 7) Bears 15.58% 642 Bets
Bucs 84.42%
# 423 10/24 1:00pm Falcons vs Chiefs (Week 7) Falcons 49.22% 768 Bets
Chiefs 50.78%
# 425 10/24 4:05pm Jets vs Patriots (Week 7) Patriots 81.81% 1314 Bets
Jets 18.19%
# 427 10/24 4:15pm Cowboys vs Packers (Week 7) Cowboys 25.54% 838 Bets
Packers 74.46%
# 429 10/24 4:15pm Seahawks vs Cardinals (Week 7) Cardinals 6.88% 1453 Bets
Seahawks 93.12%
# 431 10/24 4:15pm Saints vs Raiders (Week 7) Saints 74.24% 493 Bets
Raiders 25.76%
# 433 10/25 9:05pm Broncos vs Bengals (Week 7)(ABC) Bengals 9.85% 1188 Bets
Broncos 90.15%
29culdeus
      ID: 409551717
      Wed, Oct 20, 2004, 19:07
Whooo!, that should help.

FWIW they are pretty close to 50/50 on the ALCS game tonight. But that's tougher to say what that means because of the chalk.



Caribsports PlayerPicks

You can try that and see if it works for non users.
30MadDOG
      ID: 599531817
      Wed, Oct 20, 2004, 19:20
Ever have any problems with Carib Sports paying up?

What's their withdrawal policy?
31MadDOG
      ID: 599531817
      Wed, Oct 20, 2004, 19:25
Little tip for anybody thinking about betting the Packers this week against Dallas.


Mike Sherman called the plays from the sideline last week against Detroit because the offensive coordinator was gone because of a heart problem.

Sherman was able to have a little conference with Brett Favre after every series. The media up here is saying that it might have helped the offense.

Make of it what you want. Might be a small thing. Might be a big thing. They scored 38 points last week.
32MadDOG
      ID: 599531817
      Wed, Oct 20, 2004, 19:28
Oh I forgot the most important part. Sherman will be calling the plays from the sideline for the next 2 weeks.

33culdeus
      ID: 409551717
      Wed, Oct 20, 2004, 20:31
If it's any help it is tougher to get money to carib than get it out of them. They prefer netteller, if you have an account it is nearly instentaneous(sp?). No paypal and limited ccds. I'll always split any signing bonusus w/ this site.
34MadDOG
      ID: 599531817
      Wed, Oct 20, 2004, 20:34
I just got a $50 free betting check from a place called "BetOnUSA.com"

Anybody ever heard of them? Know anything about them?
35ukula
      ID: 22920216
      Thu, Oct 21, 2004, 09:25
I'd stay away from that sportsbook. Check out this site:

sportsbookreview.com


Interesting note about shopping for lines:

I have a database of 6,040 NFL results (3,020 actual games).

The spread records for all games is

2,924 - 2,924 - 192 .500

If you adjust the spread 1/2 point on each line the total record becomes

3,116 - 2,834 - 90 .524

The breakeven point is .5238 on 100/110 so by shopping for an extra 1/2 point you basically negate the vig altogether.


36MadDOG
      ID: 599531817
      Thu, Oct 21, 2004, 10:41
Thanks Ukula, maybe I will just use the $50 bucks and then never bet with them again.



Hey Ukula, would you have any data for NFL football comparing the line/spread to what the actual difference in the game was.

For example for all the games with a -3 spread what was the average difference in the actual score of the game?

I would be interested in seeing that if you do.

37ukula
      ID: 22920216
      Thu, Oct 21, 2004, 11:19
There were 228 games that had a spread of 3 points. The average margin of victory was 3.3 points. Not sure if that tells you that much....
38MadDOG
      ID: 599531817
      Thu, Oct 21, 2004, 11:42
What about the other spreads? I was actually hoping you would post a chart with all the spreads on it.


Was that average margin of victory for the favorite or the underdog? Most likely the favorite but just to make sure.
39MadDOG
      ID: 599531817
      Thu, Oct 21, 2004, 15:11
Here's the usefulness of it Ukula.

Granted, just saying that all the -3 spreads came out at an average of -3.3 doesn't help you much.


But if you could break it down a little further, say how many -3 spread games actually finished at -4 or -5 or -6. And then compute the percentages for each outcome. You can then determine what you are up against when you predict that one team is gonna win by 7 points but vegas/oddsmakers say that team is gonna only win by 3 points.

You can get a probability of a certain point difference coming in on games that vegas/oddsmakers say is a -3 spread or a -4 spread and so on and so on.


Lotta work that you probably don't want to do. But I would love to see something like that someday. Or maybe do it myself.


Like WiddleAvi in this thread is saying that St Louis is gonna win by alot more than 6.5 points. I don't know what he thinks exactly maybe 10 points.

So you go to this chart I'm describing above and you look at how many times a team favored by 6.5 points actually won by 10 points and get the odds of it occurring.

You probably get my drift by now so I'll stop.
40culdeus
      ID: 409551717
      Thu, Oct 21, 2004, 18:24
About the $50 bonus, this is standard practice anywhere. Just ask for it and they'll give it to you. There is usually a 10 bet/6month stipulation on a pure free money bet.

About shopping for lines, if I was betting alot more I'd do it. I just haven't found it worth my while to try to game .50 to a couple bucks here and there. Having multiple accounts gave me a headache I don't see myself doing it again, but to each their own.
41KTx
      ID: 59102123
      Fri, Oct 22, 2004, 01:10
Re: chart on 28

those percentages are bets placed on the spread right? not Straight up Win/Loss, correct? Just making sure...
42MadDOG
      ID: 10920227
      Sun, Oct 24, 2004, 14:39
Miami is up 14-7 at the half. The game in question that started this thread.
43MadDOG
      ID: 10920227
      Sun, Oct 24, 2004, 15:37
Miami up 24-7 with 8 minutes left.
44culdeus
      ID: 409551717
      Sun, Oct 24, 2004, 19:32
I assume they are ATS because they post the player picks for the college games before they have SU picks available. I'll send them an email and ask becuase it isn't clear.
45WiddleAvi
      ID: 4356159
      Mon, Oct 25, 2004, 12:11
I'll shut up now. I don't know how they pulled it off. Although I guess it takes 0-6 for Wansdadt to open up the offense and play a little less conservative - Fake Punt, Halfback pass, Booker reverse then pass, Chambers reverse. It's almost as if the Dolphins turned into the Rams !!!
46culdeus
      ID: 119141810
      Mon, Oct 25, 2004, 13:44
Public got totally trashed yesterday, NCAA as well the pub took some serious beatings. Everyone and their mother was on STL last night as well, gotta pay those DTV bills for the sportsbooks.
47culdeus
      ID: 39940206
      Mon, Oct 25, 2004, 15:08
Message from Sun October 24 at 19:47:06 pm
Hi , we are presently verifying that fact and will update your shortly.

Kevin@Carib
Message from Sun October 24 at 19:49:32 pm
Hi , the Player Picks are for the pointstpreads. Hope this informations helps. Have a pleasant evening. Kevin@Carib
48MadDOG
      ID: 8982417
      Mon, Oct 25, 2004, 15:41
Why don't you email him back and ask him this question.

If you guys are setting the line to get equal action on either side, why are those games so one sided as far as the publics selections?

49addicted to gambling
      ID: 459392515
      Mon, Oct 25, 2004, 17:42
im sure if the line for the den/cin game was 15, u would still have the public betting on denver......
50TacoJohn
      ID: 24941616
      Mon, Oct 25, 2004, 18:54
If the public is betting heavily on one side on a regular basis, then the casino has to count on the public losing more often than they win right?

Or, at least close (the juice helps a little).

So, why couldn't one just always bet against the public? You should, at worse, come to within few points of break-even and at best make big bucks.
51culdeus
      ID: 119141810
      Mon, Oct 25, 2004, 20:13
That is what quite a few people do. They are called sharps, sharpies, faders, and lots of other names. Vegas loves the people who bet big on the other side so they do little to stop the practice. They very rarely lay any points though.
52Sore Thumb
      ID: 406141912
      Tue, Oct 26, 2004, 15:55
Culdeus- thanks for the info in #29. Wasnt aware of that great site.

There are some other great websites out there that can give you great info on sports gambling.
www.covers.com www.majorwager.com

TOW

For those that might be interested in starting an account I would highly recommend that you shop around. Pinnacle offers -105 juice, Hollywood offers -107 and there are a few others with reduced juice. Never send a book any money without researching them thoroughly. Just because they sent you a fancy email or spent a ton on marketing, dont fall for it. Most are shady and might not stick around. Remember that there really are no regulations in this industry. Dont get burned. (and never play in their online casinos)
53MadDOG
      ID: 8982417
      Tue, Oct 26, 2004, 16:05
Which site do you bet at SoreThumb?
54 Sore Thumb
      ID: 406141912
      Tue, Oct 26, 2004, 16:23
i have an account at VIP Sports (A+ rating by SportsBook Review) but will move to Pinnacle soon for the reduced juice as I am making multiple bets now usually on College Football and a few on NFL.

VIP is solid for a first timer and do offer reduced juice on Wed for College and Fridays for NFL. They do have some good bonuses for signing up. I got 20% of my deposit (with 3x rollover). Awesome customer service. I have emailed and IM'd them a few times with questions and gotten answers right away.

Only send a book what you can afford to lose and only gamble a small percentage of your bank roll on any game. I have seen too many people get greedy and lose a lot more than they should have been playing with.
55The Dan's Your Daddy
      Donor
      ID: 022792222
      Tue, Oct 26, 2004, 16:48
Sore Thumb, I've been using Pinnacle for about a year. It definitely pays in the long run -- and basically eradicates the need to shop for lines, since you rarely do better elsewhere. I also love the Margin-of-Victory lines they put out on night and playoff games.

The down side is the email-only support and the slightly greater difficulty moving money in than on some sites. But they pay quickly (and, after the playoffs last year, prodigously).

CULDEUS -- one correction . . . two-team parlays are suckers bets, too.

2-teamers usually pay about 3 to 1.
Winning two games at 110/100 pays about (1.91 X 1.91 ~) 3.64 to 1.

So you give away almost 20% of your expected profits every time you bet and win a parlay. No one -- not anyone -- can overcome those odds in the long run.
56Sore Thumb
      ID: 406141912
      Tue, Oct 26, 2004, 18:04
The Dan
yeah everything I have heard about Pinnacle seems good. Will keep my VIP account too just in case the line moves in the other direction and I can still get a good price.

I stopped playing parlays once I figured out the juice. The risk doesn't equal the reward. Its a suckers bet. Its hard enough to win one game let alone 2.
57Pete Rock
      ID: 469302519
      Tue, Oct 26, 2004, 23:15
What about teasers....? are they sucker bets...i been able to survive so far with 6, 10 and 13 point teasers in NFL.....
58The Dan's Your Daddy
      Donor
      ID: 22792222
      Wed, Oct 27, 2004, 01:47
There's no easy formula to compute the "true odds" for a teaser, since the value of 6 points is not set in stone . . . and varies depending on the teams playing. So I'll reserve judgment on that one. I personally, have taken teasers with pretty much success (I think, who knows) in defensive games.
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