RotoGuru Football Forum

View the Forum Registry

XML Get RSS Feed for this thread


Self-edit this thread


0 Subject: RIFC 2005 - Draft Rationales

Posted by: Guru
- [330592710] Sat, Aug 20, 2005, 10:42

This thread will be for managers in the 2005 RotoGuru Invitational Football Challenge to provide the rationale for each pick.

Here are the ground rules:
1. Only managers in this league should post here. If you want to provide feedback (either from other league managers, or from those not in the league), put it in the discussion thread. (Non-conforming discussion in this thread will be deleted.)

2. Try to keep the pick rationales in the same order as the draft. We'll attempt to keep this thread 2 rounds behind the actual draft. With the lag, most comments should not have an impact on the draft in progress. However, if there are aspects of your pick that you feel need to be kept under wraps, feel free to protect that information. In particular, please avoid mentioning the names of any players who are still undrafted at that time of the post.

Please post your (2 round lagged) comments at the time you make each pick. For example, you should post your comments for your round 1 pick when you make your round 3 selection. If you are not ready to post at that time, then create a "placeholder" so that the next person is able to go ahead in sequence. When your post is ready, simply post it in the draft discussion thread and a moderator can copy it over.

If your rationale is due and intervening placeholders have not been inserted, please insert them before posting your rationale.

3. Once the draft is over, each manager is also encouraged to provide a general draft recap, at which time you can discuss your overall strategy, mention any undisclosed factors, comment on what worked out well and what didn't, etc.

The general format should be:
1.01 Priest Holmes - RB, KC
Several sentences of rationale.

As part of your first round rationale, please comment on your selection of draft sequence.
Only the 50 most recent replies are currently shown. Click on this text to display hidden posts as well.
55for GoatLocker
      ID: 330592710
      Mon, Aug 22, 2005, 15:58
4.06 Roy Williams, WR, Det
After three RBs in a row, was time to go get a WR.
I really like the upside to Williams and forsee him having a big year.
Had him rated as the #13 WR, so was really happy to get him as the 48th pick overall.

Only possible downside is the QB for Det, but still liked him better than other options.
56for Kev
      ID: 330592710
      Mon, Aug 22, 2005, 15:59
4.07 Kerry Collins, QB, Oakland Raiders

The one good thing about missing out on Peyton Manning and Daunte Culpepper, was I was able to get the QB I think will be closest to them point wise, 2 rounds later. After Walker and Johnson went off the board, I was about to take Collins in round 3. I decided to gamble and see if he would fall, and he did. With his big arm, and the new additions of Randy Moss and Lamont Jordan, the Raiders offense is stacked. On the other side of the ball, their defense is pitiful. Combine these 2 things, and I think you will see Collins have over 4000 yards and 30 TD’s. Will there be many INT’s to go along with it? Probably, but as long as he doesn’t quit on his team, I’m happy with my pick.

57Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Mon, Aug 22, 2005, 16:00
4.08 Antonio Gates, TE, SD

I had to stew over this one for awhile. Gates missed his team-imposed reporting deadline, and will presumably miss the rest of the preseason games as well as the opening regular season game. But the latest news is that he will report to the Chargers camp today. If so, I think he's still a good value pick here. But if he holds out longer, I might have jumped too early.

I looked at the top RB available, and couldn't get comfortable with either durability or RBBC issues. The top WRs look pretty bunched together right now. Michael Clayton is the tops on my list, but I think I can get someone similar next round. And IDP can wait.

Hopefully, Gates won’t miss more than one game, and will then produce numbers like he did last year. If so, I think the pick makes sense here. But is the risk too great for a 4th round pick? Tough call, but I'll go with my gut on this one.
58For BoNkA
      Dude
      ID: 439372011
      Mon, Aug 22, 2005, 16:21
4.09 Michael Clayton, WR, TB

I was looking to get Kerry Collins here, but with him going 2 picks infront of me, I decided to switch up and go with a WR instead as I didn't see a dire need for a QB. I was basically deciding between Clayton, Coles, and Chambers. I think Coles has a good chance of putting up the best numbers out of those three, but I went with Clayton based off last year's performance.

59Motley Crue
      Dude
      ID: 439372011
      Mon, Aug 22, 2005, 16:22
4.10 Marc Bulger, QB, STL
I saw that the guys coming up in front of me all lacked QB’s and I figured if I really wanted Bulger I had better take him here. I figured right as several other QB’s went immediately after. The plan was then to get either Chris Brown or Kevan Barlow for my second RB 9 picks later. Well that plan got shot down, but I am still looking forward to trotting out Holt and Wayne for 12 weeks of the regular season. And of course, taking those 2 early put me in this position

Bulger is in his prime right now. He’s gotten better every year, and he really ought to know the Rams’ offense by now. I think Steven Jackson taking over at RB will make the offense that much better. He has always been a good QB but I think this season he steps into Trent Green/Donovan McNabb territory.

I am spreading talent around at multiple positions this year. I hope it helps me compete a little better earlier in the season. Last season I put all of my eggs in 2 baskets and they were unceremoniously turned into pigskin omelets. Looking for a little better start this season.
60Doug
      Leader
      ID: 02730280
      Mon, Aug 22, 2005, 17:07
4.11 – Anquan Boldin, WR, ARI
I compared between Boldin and Driver and felt more secure in Boldin. I read a lot about him and while there are a few risks here and there, an improved QB in Warner and being in a Dennis Green system seemed to mitigate those concerns. And even though he didn’t play a full season, his 2004 per game numbers showed that 2003 was not a fluke. Like Steve Smith, I’m expecting 1000+ yards and 7+ TDs from him... the difference being Boldin has a bit more upside on the receiving front, but doesn’t get the punt return bonus that vaulted Smith up so high in my rankings. Basically he’s another WR with upside who may be slightly undervalued because he’s coming off an injury. I’m not a big fan of fantasy football lore like this, but FWIW he is a 3rd year wideout. I’ll hope the breakout prediction holds true in this case. =-)

On the strategy front, I did consider going TE with Witten here, but with my next pick was a bit over a round away and there were 8 picks coming up from teams who had 0 or 1 WRs so far [postscript: and sure enough 4 WRs in a row came off the board late in round 5], so I wanted to make sure to grabbed a good WR value now and not reach later, similar to my thoughts on trading up for Julius. In this case, it was probably a wash.

Looking ahead, I felt the stud defensive players were already starting to hold more value than the offensive players at this point, and that gap was likely to peak in the next round or two, which is when I’d try to cherry pick the best that defense has to offer.

I feel really good having 2 stellar RBs and 2 solid WRs at this point in the draft, and it’s conceivable that all 4 of them could wind up at the top-10 in their respective positions.
61Challenger
      Donor
      ID: 481126818
      Mon, Aug 22, 2005, 17:43
4.12 Chris Brown, RB, Ten

With the RB pool depleting quickly, I thought it was time to draft a quality backup/option, something I didn't do last year.

Due to a lingering turf toe injury, last year Brown missed 5 full games along with at least the 2nd half of 4 others, IIRC, while yet he still managed 1067 rushing yards. Quality numbers considering his limited playing time, thus this year I hoping for about the same numbers considering it appears he will be sharing some of his duties with ________.
62Athletics Guy
      ID: 187351816
      Mon, Aug 22, 2005, 17:54
4.13 Laveranues Coles, WR, NYJ

I was a bit tempted to add some depth and take Barlow here as my 3rd RB. But I thought it would serve my team better to have another receiver. The list of receivers available was starting to dwindle down to either #1 receivers on bad teams or good #2's. Laveranues Coles looked to be the best available.

Coles should become a huge factor in the fantasy football world once again now that he's reunited with the Jets. Whatever they were doing with him in Washington last season just didn't work. Perhaps it was the QB situation. Either way, Coles is much too talented to have another sub-1,000 yard season.
63Sludge
      ID: 187351816
      Mon, Aug 22, 2005, 18:26
4.14/5.01 Placeholder
64Athletics Guy
      ID: 187351816
      Mon, Aug 22, 2005, 18:27
5.02 Kevan Barlow, RB, SF

Well, this is weird. For the past 2 rounds, I've considered selecting Barlow, but I just couldn't pull the trigger. I'm really glad I didn't get him in round 3 now, since nobody else seemed to want him during all this time. Barlow does have a lot of things going against him. He's coming off a disappointing season. The 49ers offensive line has a lot of problems. Their defense is terrible too, so there will be times where they will be forced to give up on the running game.

So, exactly why did I pick him? Depth. You can never have too much depth at the RB position. With Barlow, my team will have at least 2 starting RBs every week in case my other guys are out with injuries, lose playing time, or simply having bye weeks. Even if I were to just play Barlow during Bell and Alexander's bye weeks, that's 4 matchups with this league setup. So, he could be quite useful. As for Barlow's production, I think he still has a good chance at a 1,000 rushing yard season, simply because he'll get a lot of touches. SF has a young & inexperienced QB, so Barlow could get a heavier workload to take the pressure off of his quarterback.
65Sludge
      ID: 14411118
      Mon, Aug 22, 2005, 18:28
4.14 Jerome Bettis, RB, Pit
5.01 Brett Favre, QB, GB

Well, after drafting two WR in rounds 2 and 3, I knew I'd have to get a 2nd RB as I figured half the league would add their 3rd RB between my two sets of picks. I'm not enamored with Bettis by any stretch of the imagination, but he's Pittsburgh's goalline back. I don't expect much in the way of yardage, but I do believe he'll score more TDs than Staley.

Brett Favre is the iron man. I've read that he's coming into this season healthier than in the past, so that's a good thing if true. I actually had Plummer slightly ahead of Favre, but Favre is easier to root for.

Two old timers that could make or break my season, but such is life.
66Challenger
      Donor
      ID: 481126818
      Mon, Aug 22, 2005, 19:09
5.03 Jake Plummer, QB, Den

Thinking the draft might turn to QB, I thought I would jump in there and try to take my choice of the middle tier QB's. Unfortunately, none of the jumped out at me, either due to low yardage, low td's, or high int's all hit me as no-no's.

Jake threw for 27 td's last year, but had 20 int's. However, with Plummer throwing for over 4000 yds I think that's worth a few extra points. Here's hoping Plummer throws less int's.
67I_AM_CANADIAN
      ID: 34743414
      Mon, Aug 22, 2005, 20:30
5.04 Jason Witten, TE, DAL
This is the last "upgraded" pick left from the trade w/Doug. I love how I go into a draft with a set plan… and after my first pick goes off… all bets are off! What am I doing taking a TE in the 5th round who's name isn't Gonzalez, or Gates? I blame it on Tier'ing and how well the managers in this division are drafting. I was really hoping that Barlow was going to slide into this spot, but so is life. Not much to say about Witten 980yds and 6TD's last year. Nothing to shake a stick at. He is a much "safer" studd TE than many of the other ones out their.
69Motley Crue
      ID: 33741217
      Mon, Aug 22, 2005, 21:35
5.05 Thomas Jones, RB, CHI
As I mentioned, the guys I was looking at for Round 5 (Chris Brown, Barlow) were swiped out from under me before I could get either. So I elected to go with what I felt was the best starter who produced above average fantasy statistics last season. I don’t have a lot of good things to say about TJ, except that he is the starter. I have no rosy projections. I prayed that Cedric Benson’s name might somehow not be called over the course of the next 18 picks. Thanks to BonkA, I was able to stop worrying about that rather swiftly. : \

So all I need is for Benson never to sign a contract, and [Undrafted Player] to have one of the greatest season a Bears QB has ever had, and I will be fine!

1375 total yards and 7 TD’s last season. Here’s to him doing that again.
70BoNkA
      ID: 407172221
      Mon, Aug 22, 2005, 22:17
5.06 Cedric Benson, RB, CHI
Wanted to get a backup RB with the choices slimming every pick. Benson is definitely a risky pick, not yet having a contract and Jones there already. I don't really have much to say about it other than I hope he signs and has a good season.
71Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Mon, Aug 22, 2005, 22:30
5.07 Donald Driver, WR, GB
Every other team has at least two running backs now (and 5 teams already have three). But I have only one. Still too early to panic. And, as John Kerry would have said, "I have a plan…" Maybe a stupid plan, but a plan nonetheless.

So I go after a second WR instead. Driver has been at the top of my list for about a half-round, and I'm happy to have the Packers' #2 receiver as my #2 receiver.
72kev
      Donor
      ID: 043111845
      Mon, Aug 22, 2005, 22:31
5.08 Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Arizona Cardinals
Lots of mid range WR’s out there right now. I had Larry and a couple other WR’s all ranked similarly. The reason I picked Fitzgerald out of group, is because I think he is due for a much better year than his rookie numbers, which were still good. In my mind, what held him back year, was the injury to Boldin, bringing more double teams to his side, and lack of a quality starting QB. With Boldin healthy, and Kurt Warner now throwing him balls, I see a big year in his sophomore season.
73GoatLocker
      Sustainer
      ID: 060151121
      Mon, Aug 22, 2005, 23:02
5.09 Deion Branch, WR, NE
Keeping with my strategy, this pick was the best WR left on my board.
Think he has a ton of upside and of course he has T. Brady getting the ball to him.
Don't see New England slowing down at all, which makes him a better choice in my mind than some of the other WR that were currently available.
74for Taxman
      Sustainer
      ID: 279492419
      Tue, Aug 23, 2005, 00:51
5.10 Isaac Bruce, WR, STL

I see Bruce as my best value pick through the first five rounds. Bruce has been a steady yardage producer though out his career, which seems like it started in the days of leather helmets. No longer a down field burner, he will be the thunder to Holt's lightening. A great route runner that can find the hole in a zone and retains the quickness to get separation in man, he should again post 1200 yrd, 6 TD numbers.

75for leggestand
      Sustainer
      ID: 279492419
      Tue, Aug 23, 2005, 00:51
5.11 Alge Crumpler, TE, ATL

This was a pick by phone call with Doug, and 5 minutes after I made it, I prayed that it wasn't a mistake and wouldn't mess up my 6th round pick.

I wanted a WR here, and my short list was Driver, Branch, Fitgerald, and Bruce. All four went right before my pick. I had no WR's on my team, but couldn't think of what other WR I wanted at this spot (I also didn't have time to steal away from the inlaws and look at my draft sheets). I knew I wanted a TE with my 6th round pick, and I knew I could wait for Crumpler, Heap, or Dallas Clark to come back around to me. I instead just took Crumpler, and then once I realized I could miss out on my next set of WR's (primarily Jimmy Smith and Chambers), I hoped one of them would fall to me. Luckily, Chambers fell, so, I am not stressed any more about it.

So, about Crumpler. He's Vick's favorite target and is just a beast of a man. I expect around 50 yards/game and 8 TD's. Not Gates/Gonzo numbers, but he shouldn't be behind many other TE's.

5th round thoughts:

Best Values: Barlow at 5.02, Thomas Jones at 5.05

Biggest surprise: I honestly can't find one. I don't think anyone "overpaid" for their picks.

77Bandos
      Sustainer
      ID: 279492419
      Tue, Aug 23, 2005, 00:53
5.12 Todd Heap, TE, BAL

Kinda feel like I was at the wrong end of a mini-TE run but I like having a TE who is a real threat and puts up consistent points. Heap fits the bill. When healthy he is as good as any TE in the game not named Gonzalez. After mostly safe picks in Barber, Taylor, Moss and Vick, I begin to see if I can find some value. I was tempted by Porter here but having both Oak guys was a bit of a put off. Also considered some others who strangely haven’t been drafted and Ricky, who I was hoping would fall to 7.11 – no such luck.
78Ender
      ID: 406351010
      Tue, Aug 23, 2005, 01:03
5.13 Duce Staley, RB, PIT

I weighed my options and felt like it was the right time to get my 3rd RB. Duce is dainged up a bit, but when isn't he? I'm really only counting on him to start twice for me (which makes me wonder why I'm taking him in round 5 unless you look around and see how many others had 3 RB's already too). He was the only unquestioned starter left on the board according to my notes so I grabbed him while I could. He'll lose TD's to Bettis, but that's less a probelm on bye week starts than it is over the long hall IMO.
79for Doug
      ID: 34743414
      Tue, Aug 23, 2005, 01:05
5.14 – Ray Lewis, LB, BAL

I went into this draft knowing I wanted to get a top-4 LB and a top-8 TE. I was figuring to get one or both of them in round 5 or 6 if I somehow didn't get Gates or Gonzo (which I didn't)... and moving from 5.04 to 5.14 didn’t seem like it was going to change my choices very much (not a lot of focus on LB or TE at this point)... so the price I paid for Julius was essentially nothing. As it turns out, I made the first defensive pick of the draft, and got the pick of the litter. Nothing more needs to be said than “Ray Lewis”.

If I had kept 5.04, I would have taken Witten... which is exactly what IAC did with my pick!!! That left Shockey, Crumpler, Clark, Heap, and McMichael before the dropoff in my TE rankings. Crumpler and Heap went, but the other three were still available, so I figured I could wait and grab one at 6.11 or 7.04. They all have pros and cons, and I didn’t heavily favor one of them over another.

80I_AM_CANADIAN
      ID: 34743414
      Tue, Aug 23, 2005, 01:06
6.01 Jimmy Smith, WR, JAX
Not really much to say about this pick. Was looking for a WR, and he's the #1 Target in an improving offense that has promised to go more "vertical" this year. Age is a slight concern, but he's been pretty consistent over the years, and hasn't had to deal with much injury wise.
81Ender
      ID: 406351010
      Tue, Aug 23, 2005, 01:18
6.02 Ashley Lelie WR DEN

I decided to let the QB's sort themselves out for me at this point and ppick up a 3rd WR. I could just as easily gone the other way around I suppose. As far as the specific pick, I simply think it is Lelie's year to take over as Denver's #1 fantasy WR (I realize I am not alone). I figure that's good enough to be my #3 WR. Time will tell whether this is the tipping point in my draft. I suspect it may be dpepending how my as yet to be selected QB performs.
82for Bandos
      SuperDude
      ID: 029463114
      Tue, Aug 23, 2005, 09:51
6.03 New England, DEF

I tried to trade this pick as I had NE D targeted for a late 6th round pick. Undaunted by reaching a bit, I like a plug and play D as it frees up a roster spot. NE fits the bill. Hell, I would even start them against Indy. I knew that NE and BAL would be gone by 7.11 – these two are considerably above the pack of about 9 that are very similar. Bill is the master and the fan in me wanted to get doubly excited every time they stymied another opponent or forced Manning into 4 picks. I considered a WR and Suggs here. Was very happy that Suggs fell to me at 7.11.

83for Leggestand
      SuperDude
      ID: 029463114
      Tue, Aug 23, 2005, 09:52
6.04 Chris Chambers, WR, MIA

Like I said in my Crumpler rationale, if Chambers didn't fall to me here, I would of been upset with my drafting.

Through 5 rounds, I still didn't have a WR; it seemed like the WR's I targeted each round would go right before my pick, so, I just kept holding off. Well, I figured I needed to start with a solid WR by round 6: and took Chambers. He never has a good QB throwing him the ball, but he always puts up good numbers. In 2004, Chambers was good for 900 yds and 7 TD's, and he had no running game.

In 2003, when he had a running game, he put up 960 yards and 11 TD's. With the running game improved in 2005, I expect over 1000 yards and 10 TD's. Not bad for a 6th round pick.

Other people I debated on taking: Muhammed, Mason, Burress (who I got 20 picks later)

6th round thoughts:

Best Values: Jimmy Smith, Mason, Muhammed, and Chambers. All are the un-questioned, good #1 WR's for their teams and should not suffer too much just because of lack of solid QB's.

Biggest surprise: New England D at 6.03. I wasn't expecting them to go as the 1st defense off the board or go that early.

85Taxman
      SuperDude
      ID: 029463114
      Tue, Aug 23, 2005, 10:14
6.05 Donnie Edwards, LB, SDG

Needing a 3rd RB or WR, a TE and a 2nd QB, this is a killer spot to pick up the games top unknown LB. His athleticsm and speed have kept him among the LB leaders in tackles, interceptions and passes defensed leaders the past 3 years. The noticable hole in Edwards game is low sack production. It is not likely an Edwards game will individually win a fantasy game any week during the season, however his steady production will be enjoyed.

More thoughts about this pick: (1) I have always taken premium players off the board in lieu of taking flyers on back-ups and committee positions and (2) currently there remains a number of quality WR's on the board.
86GoatLocker
      Sustainer
      ID: 060151121
      Tue, Aug 23, 2005, 15:40
6.06 Lee Evans, WR, Buf
Sticking with the plan and taking a Wide Receiver.
I really, really like his upside.
He had a great end of the season last year and I fully expect that to roll over to this year.

Hopefully he'll be Losman's favorite target.
87for Kev
      ID: 330592710
      Tue, Aug 23, 2005, 16:03
6.07 Marshall Faulk, RB, St Louis Rams

I felt at this point, RB’s with any sort of playing time were running thin. I wanted my 3rd RB to have some sort of value, so I decided to take Faulk here. As much as Steven Jackson is going to take more carries, I see Martz still using Faulk a lot- as a 3rd WR in some sets, and also as a 3rd down RB. If Steven Jackson struggles, I also see Martz putting Faulk in. He isn’t the old Marshall, but in the 6th round, and being my 3rd RB, I don’t need him to be.

88Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Tue, Aug 23, 2005, 16:04
6.08 Larry Johnson, RB, KC

I tried to find another player to pick, but failed.

I thought hard about an IDP, as some of them were currently atop my ranking list. But it just seemed too early to be jumping in there yet. Perhaps round 7 or 8.

I considered a third WR, but the dropoff over the next half dozen isn’t very severe. I could wait until the 7th round and get similar value (unless I take an IDP in round 7).

I considered a team defense – maybe Baltimore. But while it would have been comforting to have one of the premier defenses, this seemed too early again. I'm probably better off taking a defense much later.

Then there was still that glaring deficiency at RB, where Brian Westbrook is currently alone in my backfield. While Larry Johnson is not the starter on KC, he showed last year that he can step in nicely if Priest goes down, and I suspect he'll get a decent number of carries even with Priest healthy. And, of course, there's always that upside potential that Challenger dreads…

89BoNkA
      ID: 487452315
      Tue, Aug 23, 2005, 16:45
6.09 Jeremy Shockey, TE, NYG
I figured a run on the better TEs would start and wanted to grab one before they were gone. Shockey was on the top of my list of those remaining, as long as he stays healthy and Manning doesn't stink it up. I figure even if Manning does have a bad year, Shockey should be his safety valve and will be dumping a lot of passes to him.
90Motley Crue
      ID: 33741217
      Tue, Aug 23, 2005, 17:00
6.10 Mike Anderson, RB, DEN

Did I just draft Denver’s starting tailback in the 6th round? Everyone knows that the Broncos churn out 1,000-yard-backs like Ben Affleck does expensive Hollywood clunkers. If Anderson, who is #1 on the Denver depth chart, stays there for at least half the season, this pick is worth the price. I honestly wanted to wait until the 9th round or so to take him, but the more I thought about it, the more I realized
A. Tatum Bell has demonstrated a slight history of injury.
B. Mike Anderson has demonstrated a strong history of success.
And yes, I backed myself into a corner by not taking a second RB until round 5. Guru and I have similar plans obviously.

However, I might have drafted Denver’s starting tailback in the 6th round.

91Doug
      Leader
      ID: 02730280
      Tue, Aug 23, 2005, 17:14
6.11 – Dallas Clark, TE, IND
I felt the best values at this pick were LB, D/ST, and TE. However, I felt there was a much larger dropoff from here at the TE position compared to D/ST or LB, so I decided to go TE first.

I had 2 top LBs left, and figured at least one would be left at 7.04 anyway, so they were out. Baltimore I feared might come off the board around the turn, but (a) team defense is about the easiest position to play “matchup” with, and (b) I’m not thrilled with Baltimore’s games during the fantasy playoffs (@DEN, GB, MIN).

On that note, I did a bit more research at TE and read that McMichael has a history of falling off production-wise in the second half of the season, thus knocking him down a peg on my chart. By comparison, anyone on the IND offense has incredible upside as long as Peyton is healthy, thus the only downside risk with Clark is injury.

I had passed on Gates at 3.14, passed on Witten at 4.11, passed on Shockey at 5.14... he was head and shoulders above the remaining TEs on my board, so it was definitely time to grab Clark while I could. In the end, this pick felt like a no-brainer, but I had to think a lot more about this pick than I did any other thus far in the draft in order to come to my conclusion.
92Challenger
      Donor
      ID: 481126818
      Tue, Aug 23, 2005, 18:29
6.12 Derrick Mason, WR, Balt

Time to finally add a WR! Right? Wrong! I just discovered that my bk/up RB has the same bye week as one of my starters. GRRRR! So it's my turn to pick and now I have to start researching RB's again. Getting tiresome! After much research I land on Ricky Williams. Think he'll be there after 4 more picks? Let's find out.

WR time and I decide on Rod Smith. Nooo!! He has the same bye week as my QB, his QB, Jake. Quickly slide over to Mason.

Over the past 3 years with [Undrafted Player] and the Titans, Mason has averaged 90 receptions and 1161 yards. The Ravens are high on adding a passing game to their potent running game. Taking the gamble that Mason and the Ravens are good for each other.
93Athletics Guy
      ID: 187351816
      Tue, Aug 23, 2005, 18:46
6.13 Baltimore Ravens Defense

Donnie Edwards was supposed to be my selection here. Unfortunately, Taxman took him earlier in the round. With Edwards and Ray Lewis off the board, I didn't see any reason to take a defensive player at this point.

Baltimore's defense looked like a good value pick though. I had them ranked #1 on my list of team defenses. I felt most managers were comfortable with their QB/RB/WR spots by now. The draft would soon shift more towards team defenses and individual defensive players, and I had no idea what was going to be around at the end of round 8 for me (I'm saving my 7th pick for a QB). So, the decision to take the NFL's best defense (IMO) was an easy one.
94Sludge
      ID: 14411118
      Tue, Aug 23, 2005, 19:04
6.14 Muhsin Muhammad, WR, Chi
7.01 Randy McMichael, TE, Mia

Hmm... I'm not particularly in love with Muhammad, mostly because he plays for Chicago. But he's a great talent, and will get his touches, I expect. For the position in the draft I got him at, I feel he's a really good value.

McMichael is a big question mark for me. With Saban in as the new coach (damn you!), I don't know how much Randy will be used in the offense. I don't know if the Miami QB situation will get much better. I didn't pay attention to his bye week, which is the same as Muhammad and Bettis. In short, I don't know if this is a good pick at this spot or not. I probably should have gone with a top-notch LB at this spot.
95Athletics Guy
      ID: 187351816
      Tue, Aug 23, 2005, 19:22
7.02 Tom Brady, QB, NE

I was 1 of 5 managers still without a QB, so it was about time I picked one up. It came down to either Tom Brady, Matt Hasselbeck, or Aaron Brooks. Thanks to Doug, I remembered my bye week situation this time. Hasselbeck would have been my 3rd starter with a week 8 bye, and I didn't want that. As for Brooks, his high number of interceptions (with the exception of 2003) scared me off. Brady, on the other hand, has only averaged 13 INTs during the past 4 seasons. He has never topped 4,000 yards passing or thrown 30 TDs in a season yet, but his numbers are never too far off. He's very consistent and should be a solid start for me every week.
96Challenger
      Donor
      ID: 481126818
      Tue, Aug 23, 2005, 19:30
7.03 Ricky Williams, RB, Mia

Still available, is this a gamble? Of course it is! But I need a bk/up due to my bye week problem. Soft spoken Ricky will have the 4 game suspension to start the season with and I'm hoping no injuries come to my previous 3 Rb's, Holmes, Cadillac, and C Brown. By week 7 when the later 2 have their bye weeks, and by then Ricky should be starting and turning in the numbers equal to his previous stats before retiring. At least that's my idea plan.

Update - A day later and I've discovered the software I'm using to track the draft, teams, bye weeks and such has an error. It lists most offensive players from Tenn, except McNair, as having a bye in week 7. Not correct as it's actually week 10. Needless to say I was extremely upset and was most irritated because it threw me off on what little drafting strategy I had going.
97Doug
      Leader
      ID: 02730280
      Tue, Aug 23, 2005, 20:16
7.04 – Jerry Porter, WR, OAK
Now it’s getting really interesting. What I do here can ripple will likely ripple through the next 3-5 rounds of my draft. I’m writing this rationale before my pick in the hopes I can come to a conclusion. My plan was to wait on QB another round or two and then draft a pair of them to play “matchup” but Aaron Brooks is tempting me here. Problem: he has the same bye week as the 3 of the QBs I’d be looking to pair him with.

Two stud LBs remain, but the dropoff at the position doesn’t seem too sharp. I really like Bulluck though (a smidge more than Urlacher)… so he’s really tough to pass up. I know I can get value at LB later though, argh… they’re so so tempting, but I have to pass.

Speaking of passing, I see a bigger dropoff ahead for the WR position… and I note that leggestand and Bandos with 1 WR each both will pick twice before it gets back to me, and then Challenger in the same situation before my round 9 pick. There are a couple of moderate sleepers who I have rated higher than most who I could get in a couple rounds probably, however I definitely think you need 4 quality WRs... not only for bye weeks, but injuries as well. Getting WR #3 here wasn’t my plan, but it seems like the smart decision.

As fate would have it, Jerry Porter was the best WR left on my board, and worked well for me bye-week wise. I have him in a dynasty league I play in, as well as in the G24 league, and now I have him here. It doesn’t hurt that I’m a Raider fan so I love rooting for the guy, but I don’t feel this was in any way a homer pick... I never even had him on my radar screen until I noticed the upcoming WR dropoff and he just happened to be at the top of my WR list.
98Motley Crue
      ID: 33741217
      Tue, Aug 23, 2005, 23:27
7.06 Travis Henry, RB, TEN

I’m the President of his fan club; I had to take him.

You know he is a good RB. I don’t need to convince you. How healthy will Chris Brown be this season? That’s the only issue with Henry. If Brown starts 16 games, I have a third down back with little to no upside. If Chris Brown gets injured again, as he has throughout college and his pro career, I have another starting RB. And I’ll remind everyone of Henry’s heroic 2003 campaign in which he rushed for 1356 yards and 10 TD’s, despite having a broken leg for half the season.

McGahee’s caddy indeed.

99BoNkA
      ID: 53733248
      Wed, Aug 24, 2005, 09:33
7.06 Matt Hasselbeck, QB, SEA
I let my QB selection slide to this round figuring I'd get Hasselbeck or Brooks based off who was selecting infront of me and what they needed. Luckily this worked out as planned and I was able to grab Hasselbeck, who should put up similar numbers to those QBs taken in the 4th and 5th rounds.
101For Guru
      Dude
      ID: 439372011
      Wed, Aug 24, 2005, 10:14
7.07 Keith Bulluck, LB, TEN

I almost took Rod Smith here, but there still seems to be ample depth for a 3rd starter at WR. Maybe next round.

We've had a couple of linebackers taken, and it wouldn’t surprise me if a few more disappear before my next opportunity. Bulluck is a stud, and I don't think there's much downside with this pick.

102For kev
      Dude
      ID: 439372011
      Wed, Aug 24, 2005, 10:15
7.08 Rod Smith, WR, Denver Broncos

Is this the year that Rod Smith takes a major drop off in production? Obviously, I don’t think so. Smith was the highest ranked WR I had left on my list, and as much as he isn’t flashy, his consistency always seems to come through. Also, playing in the AFC West, with some questionable defenses, only helps Smith. So far, my team isn’t flashy, but I feel I have a team of grinders- CMart, DJax, and now Rod Smith.

103For GoatLocker
      Dude
      ID: 439372011
      Wed, Aug 24, 2005, 10:15
7.09 Carson Palmer, QB, Cin

I really expect him to explode this season. When Hasselbeck went 2 choices in front of me, I decided it was time to go with a QB even though I initially had wanted to wait until the 8th round. I see him throwing the ball to what I have ranked as the #4 and #33 WRs in this draft. Think that he a good mix and also expect Rudi Johnson to catch his share of passes.

Been wrong before, but homefully not this time.

104For Taxman
      Dude
      ID: 439372011
      Wed, Aug 24, 2005, 10:17
7.10 TJ Houshmientkiewicz, WR, CIN

T.j. Houshmandzadeh may not be a household name, or even one that can be pronounced, much less spelled, but last year (his 4th) he emerged as a solid #2 receiver with All Pro Chad Johnson drawing the double coverage and stud DB coverage. The 4th year tag is misleading and 2004 was really his 3rd year as his true 3rd year in the league was spent on IR. I projedct T.J. to follow the career path of 3rd year breakout WR's and hit or slightly improve on last year's performance. TJ is not big at 6-1, but big enough, doesn't have eye opening speed, but finds daylight against zones and is a candidate for the Good Wrench award as Mr Good Hands. Predict 1075 and 5 TD's. By the way, did I mention he has/can return punts and kick offs.

105For leggestand
      Dude
      ID: 439372011
      Wed, Aug 24, 2005, 10:19
7.11 Plaxico Burress, WR, NYG

I knew I had to focus on WR's since I just got my 1st one in round 6. Since I was contemplating Burress in round 5, it was pretty easy for me to choose him here without looking at other options. I had Moulds as #2 on my queue, but it wasn't yet known if his ribs were okay (which they were). With an offense that should throw the ball more than the Steelers have in recent years. I expect something around 1000 yds and 8 TD's for Burress, especially since he is such a good target in the red zone. I hope the change in scenery does him well.

7th round thoughts:

Best value: Jerry Porter at 7.04. I thought he would go 5th round, and the only reason I didn't take him earlier was because I had the Oakland RB.

Biggest risk: Ricky Williams at 7.03. He actually went in the round I expected, but since he won't play the first four weeks of the season, so, he will take up a bench spot for at least 1/2 the season before it can be gaged whether he should remain on a roster is on the WW. Still, the pick has upside, but will need patience.

106For Bandos
      Donor
      ID: 013443221
      Wed, Aug 24, 2005, 11:46
7.12 Lee Suggs, RB, CLE

Very surprised to see him at this late point in the draft. He is still #1 in Cleveland though not without a fight. When he came back last year he had 20+ carries a game and fared well. Suggs is great Taylor insurance and may have some legit upside. He was the last top 60 player left on the O side of the ball so I took him.

108I_AM_CANADIAN
      ID: 3579513
      Wed, Aug 24, 2005, 12:08
[PlaceHolder] For Ender
109I_AM_CANADIAN
      ID: 3579513
      Wed, Aug 24, 2005, 12:14
7.14 Eddie Kennison, WR, KC
Can I just do a "copy/paste" of 6.01? No? Fine… The Chiefs put up BIG offensive #s, and Eddy is their #1 WR. This year they let Morton go, so he's uncontested #1, and will probably see a lot of work. Trent will probably pass a ton to Gonzo & Priest as well... but Eddie put up very respectable #s last year, and I'm hoping for more of the same.
Rate this thread:
5 (top notch)
4 (even better)
3 (good stuff)
2 (lightweight)
1 (no value)
If you wish, you may rate this thread on scale of 1-5. Ratings should indicate how valuable or interesting you believe this thread would be to other users of this forum. A '5' means that this thread is a 'must read'. A '1' means that this is a complete waste of time.

If you have previously rated this thread, rating it again will delete your previous rating.

If you do not want to rate this thread, but want to see how others have rated it, then click the button without entering a rating, or else click here.

RotoGuru Football Forum

XML Get RSS Feed for this thread




Post a reply to this message: (But first, how about checking out this sponsor?)

Name:
Email:
Message:
Click here to create and insert a link
Click here to insert a random spelling of Roethlisberger
Ignore line feeds? no (typical)   yes (for HTML table input)


Viewing statistics for this thread
Period# Views# Users
Last hour11
Last 24 hours11
Last 7 days11
Last 30 days44
Since Mar 1, 2007905430