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Subject: Training Camp Position Battles: Running Backs
Posted by: Motley Crue
- Dude [439372011] Fri, May 19, 2006, 12:07
I may or may not start other threads for QB and WR at some point, but everyone (fantasy players, anyway) likely cares most about who will be viable RB alternatives this season.
I see a couple of teams with Running Back by Committee (RBBC) written all over them. A few others I envision will shake out with a number 1 guy at some point. Oh, and I'm not going to bother too much with injuries, as my ability to portend the future is underdeveloped and rather hit-or-miss still.
Let the battle begin.
Green Bay Packers. Ahman Green, Samwise Gado, or Najeh "Hamper Poopy" Davenport? Your guess isn't necessarily as good as mine, but I have some thoughts to get you up to speed. Sure, Gado was pretty good last year a few times. He's still listed behind the other 2 on the depth chart, however. I suppose the health of Green and Davenport will have a lot to do with how Gado fits into the picture. And those first two guys sure do get hurt a lot. This is one muddled situation. I think I'd take Ahman Green before the other guys in a draft, but you bet your bloomers I'd be scooping up Gado a little later for insurance.
Minnesota Vikings. I'm seeing Chet Taylor on top of the depth chart. What a dis on my man Mewelde! I think it's common knowledge that I like Mewelde Moore a lot (Yes, I invited him on a Love Boat Cruise. No, he didn't accept), but I'll try to be unbiased. Mewelde is way better than Chester Taylor. Case closed. OK, if you really need a status update here, I'd say you're going to be waiting until the season starts. I realize the idiot Mike Tice is gone, so the tendency to not believe a word out of the coach's mouth might be obsolete. But I just know that Brad Childress (of the Andy Reid branch of the Great Walsh Tree of Life) isn't going to come in there and be information central. Just don't get that vibe from him. So, I'll go with Mewelde in the middle rounds and let someone else take Chester Taylor too high. And then I'll cross my fingers and hope I win that bet.
Chicago Bears. This ought to be a good one. A really good one. Thomas Jones' performance + Cedric Benson's holdout equaled Benson virtually never getting on the field last season. But the Bears didn't take the guy in the first round of the `05 draft to park his ass on the bench. I think he's got to beat out TJ for the starting spot this summer, and he should do it. I think Chicago will hang onto Jones a while longer, but I see a Marshall Faulk/Stephen Davis type flip-flop occurring this year. I will be taking Benson ahead of Jones in any draft, if the opportunity arises. I see Benson as a potential fantasy monster.
New Orleans Saints. Reggie Bush is supposed to be the next Marshall Faulk. If he is, Deuce McCallister shouldn't be able to hold him off. And if Deuce gets hurt again, or hasn't recovered fully from last season's injury, this competition will be over quickly. I like McCallister and wish he'd get traded to a team that could really use him (like the Jets). Instead I see a possibility of a RBBC approach here, and that blows. The media has been indicating that for a while. I suppose Reggie may be a 10-touch-per-game guy to begin the season, while they use Deuce to ram the ball down the other team's throat. That hurts the value of each player, in my mind. But New Orleans simply cannot let either guy sit out as they are both too good. This one annoys me a bit. I think the Saints were correct to take Bush in the draft--I just hope they can let go of their Deuce security blanket at some point so that both players don't suffer for the next few years stats-wise.
San Francisco 49ers. OK, temper your enthusiasm. Or curb it, or whatever. This team should stink badly this season. Even if Frank Gore or Kevan Barlow plays 16 games as the featured RB, I wouldn't expect much more than 1200 rushing yards and 8 TD's. Acceptable, but not handstand-inducing. With that said, as a bye week replacement or in a large league, those numbers would be helpful. I think Barlow has proven that he can't do the job the way he was expected to do it. Gore should get a real chance to start and if he performs like he did last year (127 carries, 4.8 ypc) he should be the man. That's my book on it. Believe me, or not. I'm like Ripley.
Baltimore Ravens. This battle will be huge. The offense could really take off if they can snare Steve McNair as I've read they are trying to do. Mike Anderson was a very good fantasy RB last season, and he didn't even get all of the touches in Denver. Granted, it was Denver, where even Ron Dayne is made to look impressive on occasion. On the other hand Jamal Lewis looked so bad it was criminal (ha!). But my prediction is that he will be highly motivated to prove he's the best RB on the team at least. Anderson is a solid player, but he isn't in the class of Jamal Lewis, who, let us not forget, rushed for 2,066 yards in 2003. That wasn't just luck and a great line. He definitely has the potential, he has the motivation (he wants to get paid), and he's running out of time (he'll be 27 when the season starts). So I like Jamal to be the top bird in this battle. It should be a very tight fight, too, in my opinion. I fear RBBC at some point, but let's hope not.
Indianapolis Colts. Peyton will tell you there’s no replacing Edgerrin James. The Colts will try anyway, and that means Dominic Rhodes gets to have a classic veteran vs. rookie battle against first round choice Joseph Addai. I have Rhodes in one keeper league, so I’d love to see him pull this one out. But I doubt it. When the Colts choose a RB with their first selection in the draft, I have to think that means they believe he is the new guy. I have no idea how this one will shake out. I think it really be decided in training camp, which is neat to see as there aren’t usually many compelling RB contests in the summer.
Bubbling beneath the surface.
Atlanta Falcons. I looked at the numbers from `05. Warrick Dunn was actually a really good fantasy RB last year. I've liked him for years, but you have to accept with him that he won't score unless he breaks a 40-yarder. Dunn had almost 4 times as many yards from scrimmage as TJ Duckett last season (443 to 1636) but only half as many TD's (4 vs. 8). Dunn had more carries last season than he's ever had in his 10-year-career, but he never seems to lose a step, averaging 5.1 ypc last season. The Falcons drafted Jerious Norwood in the 3rd round this April also. I don't know that either Norwood, or Duckett, or any other RB Atlanta has will take anything away from Warrick Dunn, but I think age may start catching up to him eventually. I hate Duckett mostly, because you have to draft him way too early if you want to handcuff him to Dunn. But just keep in mind that things have changed a little since last season. Dunn's 31 now, and there are some challengers in camp.
New York Jets. Calgon take me away. I have a bad feeling about my nostalgic favorite. Curtis Martin is either going to get hurt and be ineffective as hell this season, or he'll have a Tiki Barber type resurgence. Yeah. I hate to say it, but I see this being the last season for Martin as the big dog in New York. Cedric Houston is an intriguing 5th or 6th round type guy. You never know--he could be very good. Although, the Jets don't look to be awesome on offense or anything. Their gigantic new O-lineman should help a little, but he can't pick up the RB's and throw them 5 yards down the field, so...
New England Patriots. Corey Dillon was decent last year. He missed some games, but scored a career-high 13 TD's anyway. I think his time may be nigh. Not necessarily this season. But the Patriots took Laurence Maroney in the first round, and again, that usually indicates that he'll play and soon. Maybe in 2007, but certainly if you draft Dillon this season, you'll want to consider Maroney at some point. Injuries do happen.
Cleveland Browns. I looked at some stats the other day and Reuben Droughns was a surprisingly good fantasy RB last year. Not awesome or anything, but he did enough to make me think he’s pretty much a lock to start for Cleveland again this season. Just don’t forget Lee Suggs, who was hurt most of last year. He could challenge for the starting role at some point, or worse yet, prove to be just good enough to siphon touches from the serviceable Droughns. RBBC potential is moderate. Forget William Green. I already have. That guy’s screwed me over often enough. Jerk.
Jacksonville Jaguars. I’ve heard rumblings that Fred Taylor is feeling like persona non grata in Jax. Well, what gave it away Freddy? The fact they’ve drafted a new RB each of the last 3 years? This year they grabbed Maurice Drew in the draft, and he’ll challenge along with Alvin Pearman and Labrandon Toefield. I think Pearman is the guy you want in case of Freddy emergency this year. But to me, if Taylor’s healthy, he’s the man. He’s got a ton of talent. And he is supposedly 100% at this time.
Denver Broncos. Tatum Bell gets his chance to be the star. Ron Dayne may play the role of second fiddle—I can’t see him taking over the starting job. But this one has some potential to turn into a battle if Bell gets injured early, or if he plays like a slug, which he did a couple of times last year. Normally, though, he kicked butt. There was talk of him and Mike Anderson being the first 1,000 yard RB teammates in a long time or something to that effect. I think Bell’s got some real talent. I saw him blaze a few trails last year and no one could catch him once he got past the line and into open space. He should be the starter the whole season barring injury.
Not much to see here.
Philadelphia Eagles. Huh? Yes, Brian Westbrook, if healthy, should be a stud and get plenty of touches, especially with no TO around. Moats will probably spell him, but if Westbrook isn't fully recovered from the injury he sustained late last season, or if he gets hurt again, Moats could actually be a very valuable fantasy player. Did I just talk about injuries after saying I wasn't going to bother? Oops.
Dallas Cowboys. Julius is the man. Well, until he gets hurt again. Marion Barber had a few very nice games in Julius' absence. Similar to the Eagles situation, but I'd say Barber has a better chance to touch the ball more often.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Carnell Williams will get most of the touches. Pittman can be a real animal sometimes, but they will start the Cadillac as long as he's healthy enough to go. If I drafted Cadillac, though, I'd be sure to get Michael "Roadside Assistance" Pittman. God that's funny in several different ways.
Carolina Panthers. DeShaun Foster is pretty damn good. I saw him carry a pack of Green Bay defenders down the field in one game last year. They finally rode him out of bounds, but never did bring him down. Awesome. I don't even know who to mention as the backup--I'll throw out Nick Goings because he always seems to get numbers when he gets a chance--but be ready to pounce if Foster gets hurt again. As usual.
St. Louis Rams. I almost didn't bother mentioning the Rams. To me, Marshall Faulk is clearly finished. If I had Stephen Jackson--who I find to be an awesome fantasy RB--I'd probably pick apart the rest of the depth chart for a backup rather than jumping on Faulk. I just don't see Marshall making much of an impact any longer. And man was he good when he was good.
Pittsburgh Steelers. I see this as the Willie Parker show, much as it was last year. Duce Staley and Verron Haynes may duke it out to take the role Jerome Bettis played last year. But if Staley could make it back from his creaky injuries to top form, he could conceivably challenge to be a 15 to 20-touch per game kinda guy. It's doubtful to me, but not inconceivable. My eggs are firmly in Willie's basket for now.
Houston Texans. Domanick Davis is a great RB when he isn’t hurt. Ourlads tells me I want to have Vernand Morency in that case when Davis is hurt. Remember the name, as Dom Davis is a tad injury-prone.
Tennessee Titans. I should have just called this the “injury-prone section”, but I hate trying to predict injuries. I guess it’s big business in fantasy football, though. OK so Chris Brown’s the man here and Travis Henry was a bum and injured himself when he got a chance last season, too. The press are saying Tennessee’s gonna stink this year. They might surprise, but I sort of doubt it. Don’t count on Chris Brown to be your superhero RB. He might be a good number 2 for your team, but watch out for this team this year—I have a bad feeling about the offense (and defense, and come to think of it their chances for any very good results other than the first pick in next year’s draft?)
Kansas City Chiefs. In case the Huggies spring a leak, be sure to have a Priest waiting in the wings to keep your team afloat. Priest Holmes is too good to let someone snag him as a FA after Larry Johnson goes down. He should be drafted by someone.
____________________________________________________________________________________________________
I don't see much point in discussing San Diego (Tomlinson), Oakland (Jordan), Cincinnati (Rudy Johnson), Buffalo (McGahee), Miami (Ronnie Brown), Arizona (James), Seattle (Alexander), Detroit (K. Jones), Washington (Portis), or the Giants (Tiki Torch). Feel free to talk about those teams, but I just feel the situations are set in stone in those cities for the most part. |
| 1 | TB
Sherpa
ID: 031811922
Fri, May 19, 2006, 23:33
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Nice post. I doubt you get a lot of replies this far in advance of the season, but it will be worth bumping up later to see how the RB battles shake out. I agree with most of what you said, but will toss my thoughts out there anyway.
Green Bay will be RBBC. Gado is a nice option, but if Green is healthy he will get his carries and if he produces he will get the bulk of the work.
Even with Tice gone, Minnesota will go with the hot hand. Moore seems to be made of plastic so Taylor will get his opportunites to start. Someone will win the job in camp, but they won't keep it all year.
Agree 100% on Benson. He will win the job in camp as long as he proves he can pick up blitzes. Jones will turn into trade bait after Benson has a good year. Definitely want to get the handcuff for this season, though.
If Deuce can stay healthy he is a 20+ carry a game guy and gets the bulk of the carries for the season. I see Bush returning kicks, playing in the slot, spelling Deuce every third series or so, and maybe lining up in the backfield on third and longs if he can adjust to NFL blitzes. He is a dynamic player, but he is also a rookie. I am all over Deuce if he drops in a draft.
The 49er offense will be better this year with Smith having his rookie year under his belt and the addition of V. Davis. We will see how things shake out in camp and preseason. I don't picture myself looking towards any of their backs for my fantasy teams this year, but if either Gore or Barlow stand out early on it could be a different story.
I think Jamal Lewis is done and Anderson become the guy in that offense. If I drafted first and took Tomlison and my highest back remaining when it came back around was Lewis, I would go WR-WR.
Rhodes will get the opportunity to be the guy for Indy. He knows that offense and he isn't a rookie. That could change if Addai is a stud in camp and preseason, but he won't be.
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| 2 | Ref
Donor
ID: 539581218
Sat, May 20, 2006, 00:04
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I read where they were predicting Addai to be the 3rd down back type of guy this year.
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| 3 | Seattle Zen
ID: 46315247
Sat, May 20, 2006, 00:11
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Really well written, MC.
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| 4 | The Beezer
ID: 265172712
Sat, May 20, 2006, 10:02
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Nice summary, MC.
I'll throw in that I see DeAngelo Williams as the primary backup to Foster in Carolina (that 1st rounder thing rearing its head again) - unfortunately he'll likely be taken earlier in the draft than he is truly worth, but if (when?) Foster goes down he would be in an ideal situation for a rookie RB.
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| 5 | Ref
Donor
ID: 539581218
Sat, May 20, 2006, 12:09
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Rhodes had some impressive games in Edge's place a few years back, but so did Mungro, and Ricky Williams, etc. We shall see.
What will be interesting are the potential backups. For instance, Jonathan Wells looked really good last year when he had the opportunities but he's now w/o a team--if not officially, then at least for all practicial purposes. He could be a starter somewhere to be honest, but the best he's going to do is a backup it seems. Also a couple guys that have showed promise in the past William Green and Lee Suggs have had all kinds of issues from injuries to off the field problems. I really think Suggs could do some big things, but don't think he will reach his potential. Many others, but here is a start.
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| 6 | Motley Crue
ID: 2192327
Sun, May 21, 2006, 10:59
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I read about Eric Shelton, of Carolina, too, after I'd written this. I forgot about him. It seems to me he's a longshot of doing much, especially after the way his career started last season (ineffectiveness in camp, severe injury during the season). But Carolina is often a place where diamonds in the rough can be found, so keep the name stored in the database for now.
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| 7 | sandloren
ID: 22537613
Tue, Jun 06, 2006, 14:44
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Don't forget about LenDale White over in Tenn...He could steal alot of Brown's carries
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| 8 | Motley Crue
Dude
ID: 439372011
Tue, Jun 06, 2006, 16:41
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He could, if he can get healthy and participate in Training Camp. I think he's on track to do so.
I worry about Tennessee's offense this season. They have some pretty good players, but I just don't get a good vibe from them. The thing with Steve McNair has been a train wreck, and that cannot be good for morale. I know Volek is a very good back-up, but imagine if he gets hurt and Vince is out there running around for his life! I'm not ready to endorse any Tennessee players too highly for now. We'll see what happens--we ought to know quite a bit by Week 4, I'd say.
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| 9 | THK
ID: 2510332316
Tue, Jun 06, 2006, 17:46
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If LenDale is healthy he will do more than steal a lot of Brown's carries. Brown will be stealing LenDale's carries.
Benson announced starter then he says he wants 1,700 yards. He wanted to say 2,000 but just wouldn't say that yet.. PHHHH yea right.
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| 10 | JTSERB
ID: 49320214
Tue, Jun 06, 2006, 19:03
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THK I heard that interview with Benson. I still don't know about Lovie saying he is #1. TJ had a hell of a year last year and with the Bears QB situation I fear for Grossman’s life with Benson blocking for him, but I guess as they said in the paper "I can think of 17.5 million reasons why Benson is the starter"
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| 11 | Ref
Donor
ID: 539581218
Fri, Jun 09, 2006, 19:00
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Faulk is saying that he may retire.
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| 12 | Motley Crue
ID: 2192327
Fri, Jun 09, 2006, 19:19
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I would like to see that, especially if you mean Marshall. He's a legend, but he's not going to contribute enough to make it worth his while to stick around. He could add some numbers to his career stats, and some money to his bank account, but he's just going to wind up hurting his body worse than he needs to. Later in life, he'll regret that.
He's been league MVP.
He's won the Super Bowl.
He was the best player in fantasy football a couple of times.
I'd like to see him hang them up now.
Ref, did you see that on the `net, or...?
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| 13 | Ref
Donor
ID: 539581218
Fri, Jun 09, 2006, 19:22
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ESPN just announced it. It sounded like he WAS going to retire because the off-season surgery didn't fix things--but he stopped short of saying that.
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| 14 | Ref
Donor
ID: 539581218
Fri, Jun 09, 2006, 19:24
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ESPN.com now has the story up.
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| 15 | Motley Crue
ID: 2192327
Fri, Jun 09, 2006, 19:43
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Yes, I didn't even mention the surgeries (which indicate he's likely in for a painful later life) and the coaching change (which also surely is a factor--a new offense?).
I hope he does the right thing for himself. It seems obvious to me, unless he's having financial problems, which I sort of doubt. We probably would have heard about that by now. And really, Faulk is the kind of guy that ought to be able to get a job in broadcast at some level. I've heard him speak before and he's articulate and knowledgable about the game.
The guy has lived the dream. He was the best player when I started playing fantasy football (only Terrel Davis came close). I hope he takes care of himself for the longterm and retires now.
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| 16 | Memphis Fan
ID: 51637216
Fri, Jul 21, 2006, 07:42
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LenDale White looks like a really good sleeper. Brown has requested that Titans trade him.
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| 17 | Mini-Vike
ID: 17617219
Fri, Jul 21, 2006, 10:23
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Brown asked to be traded? He makes Fred Taylor look durable.
Great disection of the RB position battles.
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| 18 | Motley Crue
Dude
ID: 439372011
Fri, Jul 21, 2006, 10:31
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Great, and old. Maybe it's time to get this discussion rolling anew...
I suppose we can wait until training camp starts.
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| 19 | sarge33rd
ID: 575352217
Fri, Jul 21, 2006, 10:33
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He makes Fred Taylor look durable.
plot line for a Tom Cruise "Mission Impossible" movie.
Maybe a bit dated MC, in that you posted it sometime ago...but that doesnt alter the validity of your comments/observations.
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| 20 | THK
ID: 2510332316
Fri, Jul 21, 2006, 11:13
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You better move the Dallas Cowboys up higher on that list. Everything I hear says Parcells loves Marion Barber and he will "be used as a 3rd down back at least".
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| 21 | Perm Dude
ID: 3263219
Fri, Jul 21, 2006, 13:47
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Faulk: My take is that the guy takes a year off, collects his salary, and sees how his knees react to the rest and year-long therapy. A year from now he'll think about coming back ala Emmitt Smith.
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| 22 | THK
ID: 2510332316
Fri, Jul 21, 2006, 19:54
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I wish the poor guy would just retire. Priest too...both will be on the PUP lists this year just sitting on the sidelines.
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| 23 | Memphis Fan
ID: 51637216
Sun, Jul 23, 2006, 18:58
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Local news in Nashville has been reporting that Brown asked for the trade. I'm not sure if it's publicly known but if you're drafting now I'd take the gamble on White getting major carries.
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| 24 | THK
ID: 2510332316
Sun, Jul 23, 2006, 19:09
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It is publicly known. It was also reported on FBGs that GM Reese is "not inclined" to deal Brown.
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| 25 | sarge33rd
ID: 2464896
Sun, Jul 23, 2006, 22:14
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Has Addai signed yet with Indy? I think as of "now", both he and Bush are unsigned. Anyone know of anything to the contrary?
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| 26 | Motley Crue
Dude
ID: 439372011
Mon, Jul 24, 2006, 09:04
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sarge33rd, according to this link on Yahoo, only Mario Williams (HOU) and Kamerion Wimbley (CLE) have signed contracts among first rounders. Appears to have been updated on 22 July, so there is some lag there.
We'll see a wave of them get done the week training camps start up, but I fear among those names will not be one Reggie Bush.
Anyone forsee a scenario where Bush sits out this season, Houston goes 2-14, gets the number 1 choice next season, and then drafts him? That would be pretty funny to me.
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| 27 | Toral
ID: 52621719
Tue, Aug 08, 2006, 15:01
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Undrafted free agent Mike Bell moves up to #1 of the depth chart for Denver.
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| 28 | Motley Crue
Dude
ID: 439372011
Tue, Aug 08, 2006, 15:41
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Yeah, isn't that intriguing...
I'm also seeing reports of an untimely demise for Curtis Martin. Martin might miss the entire season.
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| 29 | Ref
Donor
ID: 539581218
Mon, Aug 14, 2006, 15:21
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Jets just traded for Suggs. Interesting.
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| 30 | Ref
Donor
ID: 539581218
Mon, Aug 14, 2006, 15:31
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Portis out indefinitely.
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| 31 | Motley Crue
Dude
ID: 439372011
Mon, Aug 14, 2006, 15:32
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I like this move quite a lot. I was hoping the Jets would eventually trade for Deuce McAllister, or maybe Travis Henry, but I think Suggs could be a very productive player for the Jets if he stays healthy.
Assuming Curtis Martin sits out this season, I think Suggs could rush for about 1,000 yards as the featured back in New York. He has had some good games in the past, and has the ability I think Blaylock and Houston lack.
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| 32 | Perm Dude
ID: 15730148
Mon, Aug 14, 2006, 15:40
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Nice move for the Jets. Cleveland had him languishing, and he's got quite a bit of talent. And the Browns need DB help because of injuries, so this should help them out quite a bit as well.
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| 33 | GoatLocker
Sustainer
ID: 060151121
Mon, Aug 14, 2006, 21:43
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I think the trade moves Suggs up the list a good bit.
Might moves Droughns up a slot or two also.
Cliff
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| 34 | Motley Crue
Dude
ID: 439372011
Tue, Aug 15, 2006, 13:29
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Heh. Suggs failed his physical and is once again property of the Cleveland Browns.
Oops. Looks like all of that talk of ours was premature.
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| 35 | Ref
Donor
ID: 539581218
Tue, Aug 15, 2006, 13:34
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As a Suggs owner in a Deep Keeper league, all that excitement is suddenly diminished again.
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| 36 | Ref
Donor
ID: 539581218
Mon, Aug 21, 2006, 17:43
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SPECULATION MOUNTS THAT JETS INTENTIONALLY FLUNKED SUGGS
In the wake of the trade that sent running back Kevan Barlow to the Jets from the 49ers, there is growing speculation in league circles that the Jets knew that Barlow was available before deciding that Browns running back Lee Suggs was not able to pass a Jets-imposed physical.
The Jets acquired Suggs last week in a trade with the Browns, but Suggs failed the physical due apparently to a knee injury that Suggs had suffered in college -- and that had not prevented him from practicing with or playing for the Browns.
The speculation (and we emphasize that it is only speculation) is that the Niners offered up Barlow after word broke of the Suggs trade, that the Jets then nixed the Suggs trade by finding that he had flunked his physical, and then that the Niners and the Jets opted to wait a few days before doing the deal, in order to defuse any suspicions regarding whether there was any winking and/or nodding going on between the 49ers and the Jets before the Suggs deal went down the tubes.
Meanwhile, one league source has offered up an opinion regarding our story from earlier on Monday as to the Jets' emphasis on character guys and the decision to acquire Barlow: "If they were that concerned about high character and people, this trade that they just made really goes against that thought process." The source added that Barlow's reputation in league circles is far from stellar, and that he's not regarded as a high-character guy.
Also, to the extent that the Jets are being perceived as doing things the "Patriots way," there are other deviations. The team's decision to circulate a depth chart with the players listed in alphabetical order is something that not even the facts-frugal Bill Belichick has ever tried to get away with.
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