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Subject: 1st 2 rounds from one "expert draft"
Posted by: sarge33rd
- [575352217] Fri, Jul 07, 2006, 12:12
Thought this was interesting. 12 team league, 2 rds in a snake draft.
(Notes: This was a 14 round, serpentine style, redraft mock.. Scoring system used was 1pt/10yd rushing/receiving, -3 for fumble…1pt/25yd passing, -2 for interception…all touchdowns 6 pts).
Anyone care to comment on the picks?
1. Larry Johnson - RB, KC
2. Shaun Alexander - RB, SEA
3. LaDainian Tomlinson - RB, SD
4. Clinton Portis - RB, WAS
5. Tiki Barber - RB, NYG
6. Rudi Johnson - RB, CIN
7. LaMont Jordan - RB, OAK
8. Edgerrin James - RB, ARI
9. Steve Smith - WR, CAR
10.Steven Jackson - RB, STL
11.Peyton Manning - QB, IND
12.Ronnie Brown - RB, MIA
21.Carnell Williams - RB, TB
22.Domanick Davis - RB, HOU
23.Reggie Bush - RB, NO
24.Torry Holt - WR, STL
25.Willis McGahee - RB, BUF
26.Terrell Owens - WR, DAL
27.Brian Westbrook - RB, PHI
28.Kevin Jones - RB, DET
29.Larry Fitzgerald - WR, ARI
210.Chad Johnson - WR, CIN
211.Reuben Droughns - RB, CLE
212.Jamal Lewis - RB, BAL
Top 8 picks RB
Top WR rd1 pick 9
Top QB rd1 pick 11
2nd WR rd2 pick 4
RB = 18 of 24 picks (75%)
WR = 5 of 24 picks (21%)
QB = 1 of 24 picks (4%)
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| 1 | Motley Crue
Dude
ID: 439372011
Fri, Jul 07, 2006, 13:59
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Steve Smith went too early. Then the dufus took Torry Holt in round 2. If he started a draft like that and had to play a real season he'd be in some trouble, IMO. Not drafting any RB's at all until round 3 puts you at a sizeable disadvantage, even if Smith and Holt finish #1 and #2 this year in WR points, which I doubt. I think you gamble on a guy like TO before taking Holt.
I think the fact that 75% of the picks were RB's is in line with what I'd expect.
I'm a little surprised to see guys like Droughns and J. Lewis go before Tatum Bell, but I suppose Bell is a bit of a risk pick himself. And since that's end of the second round, it's not a real big risk anyway.
Reggie Bush in the early second? Not sure about that one. What happens to McCallister this year? He ain't gonna ride the pine.
And the guy who picked last in round 1 apparently is a big Auburn fan. Safe picks, really, but neither one really excites me.
I like to think James will be a good value at #8. I see him performing as he typically does. We'll see--I keep hearing the line in Arizona is horrendous.
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| 2 | sarge33rd
ID: 575352217
Fri, Jul 07, 2006, 14:19
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I too thought Smith went too early. I was really surprised to see him go before P Manning actually. PM is IMHO, the creme de la creme in QB's atm.
I was also surprised to see TO go before both Fitzgerald and C Johnson. I still have too many questions surrounding Owens. His raw ability as a WR is without question. His committment, is I think still very much in question.
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| 3 | Motley Crue
Dude
ID: 439372011
Fri, Jul 07, 2006, 15:04
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Yes, well perhaps I ought to mitigate my statements by explaining that TO is one of my keepers on a team that I ponder endlessly.
I hope for great things from him year in and out. Perhaps I should look to trade him instead, for someone a little less volatile.
We've seen what can happen to extremely talented players that cannot seem to keep their heads out of their butts. They usually don't get many chances.
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| 4 | sarge33rd
ID: 575352217
Fri, Jul 07, 2006, 15:46
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Always been the hassle with TO. Great stat lines, unless he gets himself suspended.
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| 5 | Astade
ID: 57544126
Fri, Jul 07, 2006, 16:01
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I was surprised at Portis at #4.
I know he had a strong finish last year, but I still think Barber, Johnson, and James are ahead of him.
Did Washington get that much better over the offseason?
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| 6 | GoatLocker
Sustainer
ID: 060151121
Fri, Jul 07, 2006, 16:09
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Astade,
The belief is that with Antwaan Randle-El and Brandon Lloyd both joining Santana Moss in Washington, that Portis does nothing but get better.
Depending on which lists you look at and what you think, best guess is that Barber / Portis are either 4 / 5 or 5 / 4.
Will talk to the overall list later.
Cliff
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| 7 | sarge33rd
ID: 575352217
Fri, Jul 07, 2006, 16:11
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Several "expert" drafts I've seen put Portis at 4th or 5th overall pick. A few have dropped him down to 7th and one he went with the 9th overall. (Which I think would be a HIGH value spot to get him with.)
Personally, I put him 5th-6th overall. LJ, LT and SA are the clear 1st 3 choices.
Then I thik the next 3 are as above, in no certain order. Tiki, Rudi and Clinton.
Overall though,. the first 6 picks above, go hand-in-hand with what I would expect to come off the board in the first 6 picks.
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| 8 | The Beezer
Leader
ID: 191202817
Fri, Jul 07, 2006, 17:46
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Portis is also climbing up the list because of Al Saunders moving to DC, since he's been the architect behind the KC rushing game the past few years. I'm not sure how much of that should apply here, though.
I really like team 3 as I think there's a good chance that LT2 and CJ will each top their positions. I like the Alexander/Droughns combo the best of the teams with 2 RBs.
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| 9 | Doug
ID: 50747319
Fri, Jul 07, 2006, 17:46
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I'm a bit surprised at the absence of Julius Jones ahead of some of the RBs (and WRs) selected.
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| 10 | TB
Sherpa
ID: 031811922
Fri, Jul 07, 2006, 19:30
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I thought everything MC said before I read what he wrote. I agree with Doug too and would add Fast Willie Parker as well. I don't have Jamal Lewis ranked in my top 24 RB let alone top 24 picks.
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| 11 | wiggs
ID: 47621108
Mon, Jul 10, 2006, 14:08
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this draft seems way off to me, i dont see lamont jordan as a top 7 pick, brown looks like he went to early at 1.12
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| 12 | barilko6
ID: 16529229
Mon, Jul 10, 2006, 14:36
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I agree with Wiggs.
I would rate Dom. Davis and Willis McGahee both ahead of Brown. Davis has Kubiak as a coach now, and the Bills have come out and said they are going to use Willis as their horse this year.
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| 13 | Kyle
ID: 261371521
Mon, Jul 10, 2006, 15:15
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Do the experts not see Duece McAllister staying on the Saints this year? If so then why do they not see him taking away carries from Bush? I don't believe a RRBC should go 2nd round even if it is Bush.
Just my opinion
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| 14 | barilko6
ID: 16529229
Mon, Jul 10, 2006, 15:18
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The real question is...Where would you take Bush in a keeper league?
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| 15 | Motley Crue
Dude
ID: 439372011
Mon, Jul 10, 2006, 15:33
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If it's a new keeper league, Bush is a Top 5 pick, but you have to go with guys like Larry Johnson and Tomlinson ahead of him.
In a keeper in year n+1 (as in, where people will have some keepers coming into the season), I think Bush is probably #1 overall.
In a redraft league though, I cannot see him in the first round at all, and maybe not even round 2 depending on how many teams there are, and other parameters.
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| 16 | barilko6
ID: 16529229
Mon, Jul 10, 2006, 15:59
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Yeah, I am in a 12 team keeper league, I already have Edge, Willis, Peyton M., and Marvin Harrison as four of my five keepers, but I managed to pick up the 3rd overall pick in a trade during the season. Not sure if Bush will still be on the board at 3. If he is, I will take him, because I think my team is fairly solid as of now.
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| 17 | Motley Crue
Dude
ID: 439372011
Mon, Jul 10, 2006, 16:02
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I'm in a 12 team keeper league and we can only keep three each. I expect to see Bush taken first overall. The other available RB's won't be anywhere near his potential. In fact, I'd be surprised if maybe even Maroney and Addai don't go early in Round 1.
Shame. I'd love to get one of them. But I won't be picking until Round 3 at the earliest.
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| 18 | barilko6
ID: 16529229
Mon, Jul 10, 2006, 16:04
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Yeah...I think Addai would be a good pickup. He will have to push Rhodes out of the way in the dreaded RBBC, which might take 6 games, but after that, he will put up good numbers.
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| 19 | Motley Crue
Dude
ID: 439372011
Mon, Jul 10, 2006, 16:08
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barilko, your team must have sucked on Indy's bye weeks for as long as you had those 4 keepers.
I suppose it's actually a good thing for you that Edge is no longer a Colt.
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| 20 | barilko6
ID: 16529229
Mon, Jul 10, 2006, 16:17
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One of my strategies that I tried last year for the first time was to load up on players that share bye weeks. Instead of trying to mix and match my roster over a span of the bye weeks, I figured I would take a mulligan over one week. I stocked up on Indy, Seahawk, and a couple of Falcons' players. I can't remember who else shared that bye week, but I do remember not being attracted to any of their players
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| 21 | Motley Crue
Dude
ID: 439372011
Mon, Jul 10, 2006, 16:27
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And the most important bit of information you left out: the results of the experiment?
I've never tried that and I wouldn't do it on purpose, frankly. There are enough players for you to have a good chance to win any given week, if injuries don't kill you first. I never concede a loss, not even when my best players go on bye weeks.
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| 22 | barilko6
ID: 16529229
Mon, Jul 10, 2006, 16:31
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I finished 3rd overall, didn't make it to the finals. I scanned the bye schedule and then targeted the week that I felt had the best offensive potential sitting for that particular week.
Things that did me in: I didn't get Reggie Wayne, Willis had a subpar year, and my free agent pickups left much to be desired.
All in all, its an experiment I am not sure if would be leaning towards doing again...lol
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