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Subject: RIFC 2006: Draft recap Posted by: Guru - [330592710] Tue, Aug 29, 2006, 19:03 Complete draft RIFC Managers - You are each invited (although not required) to post your general reflections on the completed draft. Comments may be as detailed or as general as you wish. As a catalyst, free free to comment on any of the following: 1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned? 2. What were your favorite picks? Which do you wish you could do over? 3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)? 4. What surprised you most about the draft? 5. If you could start over, would you do anything differently? Non-managers are also welcome to post general comments on the draft, and to raise questions. | |||||||
| 1 | The Beezer Leader ID: 191202817 Tue, Aug 29, 2006, 23:41 |
Guess I'll go first. Warning: long-winded analysis follows... Overall thoughts: In 2004, I felt great about nabbing Jeff Garcia as my starting QB. In 2005, I was ecstatic that J.J. Arrington was still available in the 4th round. Despite all that, I qualified for the RIFC this year and you're still reading this. Keep the above in mind as I go through all of this. And remember that you can't spell "rationale" without "lie" or "rant". First of all, thanks to everyone in the league for making this the best run, most interesting, most difficult, and most enjoyable draft I've been a part of. If the season is half this good, it will be incredible. 1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned? Initial plan: - top 5 RB and top 5 WR out of the gate (unless a top-10 RB or Manning slid to 2.09) - get another RB in round 3 or 4 before all the fairly clear starters vanished - slough off on IDPs to get more offensive starters until round 8 unless everyone fell asleep on the top guys - draft as many RBs and WRs as possible as value appears in the draft - when in doubt, don't draft J.J. Arrington As I alluded to in my first draft rationale, the plan was to get a top 5 RB in round 1 and a top 5 WR in round 2, then go for value for a while. Grabbing Rudi and Fitzgerald set me up well for this. Similarly, getting Wayne in round 3 and Gore in round 4 worked out very well, especially with the Barlow trade making Gore the unquestioned #1 in SF. I'm still having the occasional Arrington flashback but they're getting better now. In a funny way, TEs heavily affected my draft in rounds 3-7. Drafting Gates in round 3 could have led to picking up Matt Jones as my #2 WR in round 7 - hard to say if that would have been an improvement or not. AG grabbed Heap one pick before I could snatch him in round 5, whom I would have greatly preferred to taking Tatum. Not sure what I would have done about a backup RB then, but things would have changed a lot, I suspect. I still stand by taking Tatum over Mike Bell, but I wouldn't protest a "dumb" stamp on that pick. Once that was done, I wanted to focus on rounding out a lot of starting spots before the pools got too thin. I really think Vick is undervalued nowadays in leagues that score 4 pts for TD passes. If he scored 6 TDs on the ground, that's like scoring 9 TDs via the pass. With Duckett now out of the way, I think that's attainable. The next 7 rounds worth of picks (Cooley, Muhammad, Pierce, Kawika Mitchell, Schobel, June, and Dawkins) were all BPA picks at open starter positions. The IDP drafting in this league was quite astute, as others have noted. I think any delay after round 9 on picking up IDPs would have put me in a bad spot, yet I think I really snagged some value in those last 5 picks there. Starting in round 14, I felt like I'd established a good foundation for my team to be competitive every week. However, the goal is not to be competitive - the goal is to win. To do that, I knew I'd need to find at least one gem in the last 11 picks, and the more the better. Thus, a lot of guys with talent that haven't proved themselves yet (Rivers, Roddy White, Ced Wilson, Gabriel) and a couple of vulture picks (Michael Bennett, Tony Fisher, Sam Hurd) that likely won't pan out but could hit big if they do. I'll be extremely pleased if Rivers and any of the other 6 named can play at starter level this season. All in all, I think I executed as intended and held my own. I could use another RB and wouldn't mind a better QB, but who wouldn't? 2. What were your favorite picks? Which do you wish you could do over? Gore of course looks really good right now. Muhammad and Pierce were ones I really felt good about as well. Gabriel could be a steal if Porter stays in the doghouse and Brooks doesn't implode. Fisher looks like a wasted pick more than likely, and Hurd probably is as well. 3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)? Of course, no team can be counted out after the draft, and no team is a lock to win it all, either. Here's a breakdown of how I see each of the teams. This is of course as they stand now and assuming adequate pickups for bye week coverage as needed - percentages are rough numbers at best and are not precise in any sense of the term. They are not FDIC insured, are not bank guaranteed, and may lose value - consult your fantasy football advisor for more information. Hubble Why they'll win - LJ, Harrison, and Moss will have weeks where they put up 70 points by themselves, so it won't take much at other positions for them to get Ws when that happens. Why they won't - QBs are suspect and Jones/Benson has not looked good up to now. Playoff chances - 70% Goatlocker Why they'll win - LT is a workhorse, and Hasselbeck should be a top 3 QB. Dillon and DeAngelo should form a serviceable RB2 - they'll probably transition starter roles around the same time. Why they won't - WR corps is thin and there are lots of questions at IDP. Davis looks like the hard luck pick at this point and is a big blow. Playoff chances - 10% Leggestand Why they'll win - Alexander projects at #1 on my board, Chester Taylor should be a solid RB2, QBs are deep and mesh well together, 2 solid IDP studs Why they won't - no depth at RB if something happens to a starter, and if none of the underachievers last year at WR perform after Boldin, there won't be many points from that position. If he has luck like I do he'll start the QB that puts up a negative score while the other 2 score 20. Playoff chances - 80% I_AM_CANADIAN Why they'll win - Legitimately 3 deep at RB and a top TE in Gonzalez. Trent Green is always underrated and Green to Gonzalez scores will boost IAC's scores when they occur. IDPs are solid players that should produce consistently. Why they won't - WR will be a weak spot if Branch doesn't start playing soon. Lee Evans will likely drive IAC into tirades just like he did for me last season. Playoff chances - 80% Athletics Guy Why they'll win - Culpepper to Chambers scores double for AG, and SJax should be productive as well. TO should dominate in games he plays as well. Heap's a top 4 guy this year on my sheet. Why they won't - RB2 consists of 4 fragile RBs and a lot of bailing wire. The 3 DB strategy looks like will only produce scored equivalent to an average DB and doesn't help much at first glance. Playoff chances - 15% culdeus Why they'll win - As long as Portis and Foster are healthy, this team doesn't really have a weakness at the starter positions. Really like the Lundy pick, the IDPs, and the starting WRs. Why they won't - Foster is always a ticking timebomb, Portis could have lingering concerns into the season, and everyone else at RB is in an RBBC or backup situation. No real WR depth beyond the top 3. Playoff chances - 90% Valkyrie Why they'll win - Great QB duo and I like the receiving corps with Edwards back on the field already - that could be one of the steals of the draft. IDPs should be productive as well. Why they won't - RB corp has looked horrid in the preseason and has no depth after the top two, one of which could end up in an RBBC (Addai). WR depth could be a lot better. Playoff chances - 35% TB Why they'll win - I like the offensive starter's potential. WRs look really good in particular, and the QBs should be rock solid. I had McGee and Tillman last year and they really put a hurting on people. Why they won't - A lot of uncertainty around the RBs - Bush and James, as well as the backups, are really wild cards in their roles and may not be able to produce like other teams. Likewise with Matt Jones - if any of these guys can't get it done, there's not much else to draw on as it stands now. Playoff chances - 60% youngroman Why they'll win - YR has the amazing ability to read my mind all the way from Austria, and his first 3 picks matched my first three guys I would have taken exactly - Brown, Smith, and Gates should all be top 5 this year. Why they won't - RB2 is behind nearly every other team in the league and there's no real WR depth here at all if Galloway suddently gets old. And count me as one of the folks concerned about the fallot between Jason Taylor and Zack Thomas. If both of them are affected, the IDPs on this team will be hard pressed to perform. Playoff chances - 10% Guru Why they'll win - One of the better RB corps in the league in Cadillac and Droughns should put up 30 points every week at a minimum. Eli to Shockey is double points and will be a frequent sight throughout the season. Adrian Wilson was first on my board at DB and will produce. Why they won't - WR3 is a weakness that must be addressed and there's not much depth at WR or RB other than Barlow, which really says it all, I think. I'm not a big fan of the LBs other than Hawk. Playoff chances - 40% Doug Why they'll win - 2 RBs that are definitely the starters in McGahee and Jones, and Barber III could end up with a healthy role himself. I like the WR starters as I have Bryant as a highly improved player and Welker should be a solid #3 with the returns. And having 3 of the top 4 IDPs should be good for 30 points every week. Why they won't - If and when Warner gets hurt, this team will be starting the Detroit QB, RB, and WR every week. Martz may be a genius, but that's a lot of risk from a team as historically bad as them. Every starter at QB, RB, WR, and TE was either hurt or well underperformed their draft position - it's unreasonable to expect them all to improve to the level needed, and that will spell trouble. Playoff chances - 20% Motley Crue Why they'll win - Peyton will produce as always, and Dunn, DJax, and Burress should have good seasons. Troy Williamson should get the job done on byes and Drew Bennett should be a decent #3. Why they won't - Dunn is the lowest ranked of the RB1s in the league on my board, and RB2 is looking really iffy with Mike Bell and Chris Brown. The other WRs don't impress me much and Williamson is still pretty raw so depth at wideout could be a problem. Playoff chances - 50% s R Why they'll win - Palmer looks ready to go and was a great pickup in the 5th. RB starters are solid, and I like the Wilford pick and the LBs. Why they won't - No true WR1 on this team in my mind as Andre Johnson and Derrick Mason are really WR2 guys unless they improve. No RB depth unless some guys get hurt that are keeping this team's backups on the bench. Playoff chances - 30% 4. What surprised you most about the draft? Not much. I expected varied strategies, smart picks in all rounds, and a fast draft - all of which occurred. I was hopeful that IDPs would continue to be an exploitable area and found that this was not the case for the most part. While I felt I was able to get some good talent a bit later than most, the margin for error was razor-thin. I was surprised that there were not more trades in the draft - I expect heavy movement in the first few weeks as surpluses and deficits emerge that we just won't know until the season starts. 5. If you could start over, would you do anything differently? Nothing of significance. | ||||||
| 2 | I_AM_CANADIAN ID: 59652217 Wed, Aug 30, 2006, 01:44 |
1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned? A1 - In previous years I've waited till the 4th and 5th rounds to draft an RB2, and although I've managed ok success in finding Pittman/Betts type backups who could do a service-able job covering for bye weeks, I found that more often than not, not having at least two stud RBs caused a really high level of discomfort. I figured this year that I'd hold off on QB till 8th Round, and try to grab as much RB/WR in rounds 1-5 with the idea of grabing Stud LB in round 6-7. Also, I knew that playing in the RIFC this year, would be a real test. At this level, not only are the managers solid drafters, but they also "know the system". Thus, I felt I would have to spend extra-time researching KR/PR, as it became very obvious early in the draft that managers wouldn't let the Wes Welker/Dante Hall's slip into "true sleeper" levels. A2 - Overall, I think the plan went 80% on schedule, although it's very hard to expect any different. To take my 3rd RB in the 3rd round, and to follow that up with a TE in the 4th was a little bit off target. This caused me to grab my 2nd WR in the 7th instead of following up with my 2nd LB right away. In the end, I'm happy cause I think I've got solid starters, and good depth at what I consider to be the two most important Fantasy Positions this year, RB, and LB. 2. What were your favorite picks? Which do you wish you could do over? Favs: Antwaan Randle El @ 12.11, Justin Miller @ 20.11, DeMeco Ryans @ 15.04 Do Overs: Deion Branch 5.04… starting to get ulcers just thinking bout this guy's contract/trade talks all the time. 3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)? Athletics Guy has a lot of high risk pics… could be a contender, or could be in a lot of trouble (like if those two QBs flop) The Beezer - Solid drafting, not many wholes. Top 3 IMO. TB could be a volitile starting so many DBs, but has a solid team, and good depth. Guru. Good team… but lack of WR depth a little questionable. Doug. Good team… but coulda been better had he not tried to start so many runs. (Overpayed for quality IDP) MC (see TB) SR like AG playoff hopes probably rely on the questionable health of the QB1. 4. What surprised you most about the draft? Managers not willing to follow runs… as I mentioned above, I think Doug tried to start a few (not necessarily premature either btw) I think the key this year to getting to the playoffs isn't the quality of the offense, but the reasearch and quality gotten in IDP… thus how some managers were VERY up to date, while others didn't put enough focus. 5. If you could start over, would you do anything differently? As of today… no not really, there was no point in the draft were I looked back and though I shot myself in the foot by following a set plan. | ||||||
| 3 | youngroman ID: 3751268 Wed, Aug 30, 2006, 07:04 |
1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned? initial thoughts: 1) go RB-RB in the first 2 rounds 2) wait for TE, DL, D unless you get a top player 3) don't miss the IDP-run and get more proven ones 4) get a comforatable QB later than others 5) get a K in the last round 6) get lots of backup-RB for your bench because they will be not available during the season I hope I executed as expected. I missed only RB-RB because of the unholy RB-run at the start of the draft. because I don't want to reach that early I went RB-WR-TE-RB getting the top-producers at WR and TE. I hope these 2 can leave up to their expectations. after that I started filling my roster primarily with WR and IDPs. I took some IDPs earlier than some of you expected but I was too lazy to evaluate all of the IDPs (especially new starters and rookies). in the middle of the draft (round 12+) I felt there was not much outstanding quality left at any position, so it was a game who may slip to later rounds and who not. this was the time I started getting bakckup-RBs like nobody else. With only 1 starter at the beginning of the season, and Deuce being the 2nd, I felt the need in getting the brand new starter in unknown-land. 2. What were your favorite picks? Which do you wish you could do over? I don't know if there is any favorite pick. only the regular season can tell if I guessed right or not. the picks I'd do over would be the selection of the draft position so that I can get RB-RB without reaching. from todays point of view I'd also throw away Ladell Betts. he may be the first one that will be dropped from my team. 3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)? as always, I have to think positive and see me reaching the playoffs. I guess if you factor in the draft it is only worth one third. the other two thirds being in-season-pickups and luck. because of that I say nothing because I can only go wrong here. 4. What surprised you most about the draft? the RB-run at the start. How early you all got your first few IDPs and kept drafting them. I didn't expect this run so much because of the depth at these positions. I think if you really scout IDPs well you can pick your starting 6 in rounds 15+. this may be my strategy for next year, if I really can scout IDPs based upon reports in the Internet, because as of today I have no chance to see any preseason-action and as of today I can only see 4 regular-season games on television. I see that as clear disadvantage for me, that I have to live with. 5. If you could start over, would you do anything differently? ask me this when I haven't qualified for next year. If I qualify, the answer will be: no. otherwise it will be yes. | ||||||
| 4 | Motley Crue Dude ID: 439372011 Wed, Aug 30, 2006, 16:28 |
This draft reinforced a few lessons for me strongly. For one thing, your draft generally doesn’t have that much effect on whether you win or lose the league. As long as you don’t take 14 kickers and 10 D-linemen (i.e., you actually draft the positions you need) and as long as you aren’t complete crap at judging when guys should be taken (no taking Rod Gardner in the third round), you will have a fine basis for competing. The caveat is injuries. I’ve made it a habit of really pushing injured or injury-prone players far down my draft sheets. I just don’t like to take big risks like that. Another lesson that I feel this draft proved again is that we love our running backs. 74 RB’s were selected, which tied WR’s as the most selected position. And we start 3 WR’s each week as opposed to two RB’s. Last season only 66 RB’s were selected in the RIFC draft. We added on 3 extra rounds of draft to bulk up on IDP’s and instead we took more RB’s. Clearly there’s a love affair with them. They go early and often in drafts, and ours seemed to really demonstrate that. 17 of the first 18 picks were RB’s! Think about that for a minute. By the time the third round started, 21 RB’s had already been taken. There are only 32 teams in the NFL. Heh. Personally, I have never felt that RB is as valuable a slot in this game as it is in some other formats. When you add all of these extra starting positions (IDP’s and a third WR) it decreases the importance of RB’s overall. You can hit the jackpot on a given week from another slot. And that’s really what we’re trying to do. You want a huge score each week. If it comes from Larry Johnson or Tiki Barber, fine, but if it comes from Randy McMichael’s one huge game of the year, or Joe Jurevicius’, so be it. Everyone wants to get the #1 slot in the draft*draft, or some good low number. No one wants to be last. I was pissed when I saw I got #14. But it forced me to realize that a good team can be drafted from any position. Or at least a competitive team. I had the 11th draft spot in RIFC `04 and the 5th spot last year. I’ll admit that last year’s draft was much better overall than the first year’s. But I think that you could win this league picking from any spot, and when I realized that, I was able to make piece with my drafting spot at #13. When the first round got to me, all of the very good and solid RB’s with no question marks were of course gone. I was left to ponder Brian Westbrook and Willie Parker. And I had been thinking that Peyton would have gone before that. Since he was there I began to consider him a little more. I like the way he can have a big game virtually every week. With Westbrook I was concerned about injury, and Parker has such a short track record to go by. I wanted my first pick to be overwhelmingly solid. Manning was the only one who made me feel that confident. He is the foundation for the rest of my team—my rock. It all begins with him. I concede that my season will probably be miserable if he gets hurt (unless Chris Simms turns out to be just as good?). And I’ve never had Peyton Manning in a draft and trade league before, either, so the fact that I could try a season with him at the helm is exciting. I read with interest culdeus’ comments that the 2-RB-in-the-first-3-rounds paradigm was the only surefire way to have success in this league. And then I promptly went QB-RB-WR-WR. Not to be contrary, but I just never felt the value was there in rounds 3 or 4 vis-à-vis the available RB’s. RB is not going to be my strong suit this season, unless Shanahan knows something about Mike Bell that I don’t. And even if he turns out to be Terrell Davis, Jr., he and Dunn aren’t going to scare anyone too badly. My success this season will depend greatly on how well Manning plays, and if one of my other 5 WR’s turns out to be a reliable guy (I might need two of them to work out if D-Jax can’t get off the injury schneid). IDP’s are the real story of the RIFC 2006. Will they be that much more significant now that we have to start 6 (count `em 6!) every week? I just don’t feel like they will be, and perhaps that will be to my detriment. I tried to ensure that I have a couple of very good ones (Barnett and Darrent Williams), and after that, I sort of just took them when I felt the value was there. And for the most part that meant I took them late. I think if there were 14 Motley Crue’s drafting there would have been almost no IDP’s drafted before the 9th or 10th round. Maybe some of you think that’s because I don’t know crap about defensive players. I feel it’s because they are just too inconsistent. Even the LB’s aren’t all that consistent from season to season. Shoot, no players are! I never use projections in these drafts either. I have a mental feeling about how I think a guy will do based on his past performance, but I don’t pull projections from any website, nor do I create my own. I don’t feel the need to do that. I’ll admit it’s not easy developing a feeling about IDP’s because I haven’t played with them very much. The RIFC is the only league I play that uses IDP’s. I am not worried or at all nervous that 2 or 3 of my IDP’s may suck badly. There will be plenty of guys on the free agent list this season that are scoring only a point or 2 less than your best IDP’s each week. I can be competitive with that. I don’t need 3 of last year’s Top 10 LB scorers. Just my opinion. We’ll see how this works out. The picks I made that I liked the most included QB Chris Simms, WR Bryant Johnson, and TE Randy McMichael. For where I got them (15th, 19th, and 10th rounds) I feel they will provide me with a lot of value. I like Gostkowski in the last round (valkyrie), however I don’t see any reason for the pick since he has Feely. And no, valkyrie: I’m not going to trade you for the Ghost. I’m not going to rate every team this year. I have had fun doing that in the past, but I have decided I’m just going to list my favorite teams and discuss what I like about them. Valkyrie has a very solid roster, but things might get ugly when LaMont Jordan has a bye. The team is very well rounded and should score plenty of points from virtually every position. I foresee a trade of one of those QB’s for another RB at some point. I just like how solid this line-up is from top to bottom. The TBRaiders look good also. Sorry, Tom, I hope I’m not jinxing you. With that sort of potential at RB, it’s only a matter of time before he’s wheeling and dealing to cover any other deficiencies that arise. Great QB’s; solid WR’s that could be spectacular with a little luck; very good IDP’s. I think his worst position is Kicker. And that will easily be corrected by Week 2. youngroman will win RIFC this season if he plays his cards right, and what a hand he’s dealt himself. Galloway, Glenn, and Steve Smith starting at WR? Having that last season would have won plenty of games without even considering the other positions. But then he has 7 RB’s to boot. Remember, I had 7 last year after the draft, too. The best TE in the game, Indy’s reliable defense, the best DL available, and strong LB’s make youngroman’s the team to beat. I guess that means the 8, 9, and 10 slots were the best to draft from. Thanks to everyone for keeping the draft moving. We get 6 hours per pick but no one needs that much time. And you guys showed how pleasant a draft can be when it’s comprised of a considerate, dedicated, and focused group of drafters. Thumbs up. | ||||||
| 8 | culdeus ID: 21658420 Wed, Aug 30, 2006, 21:01 |
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| 9 | culdeus ID: 21658420 Wed, Aug 30, 2006, 21:05 |
Tough to read a bit, but it's as big as I could make it and still get it hosted on photobucket. Sorry. Basically you can see the integration of picks as the draft went on. You can see how the WRs and RBs were pretty divergent till about pick 100 then the RBs got a mini-run, then the WRs got a run and then it was a tie to till the end more or less. Interesting that so few lines cross. If I was smart I could take something from this, but I'm not so I can't. | ||||||
| 10 | leggestand ID: 517112818 Thu, Aug 31, 2006, 18:58 |
1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned? From my 2005 Recap: "Things I have learned: 1. I thought I learned this in the first season, but I guess not: Unless you can get a top 8 IDP, don't draft them until the late rounds... 2. Don't draft depth early. If the choice is between a solid WR, TE, or QB, take them over a 3rd RB..." Point 1 completely changed because of the increae in IDP's to six starters. It now became an important piece to draft well. I still think their will be some solid players on the WW, but certainly not as many as RIFC 2004 and 2005. As for the effect of increasing IDP's, two positions are negatively impacted/diluted by the increase: RB's and WR's (the only positions where you have multiple starters). Knowing that, I convinced myself that in 2006 it was wise to stay away from drafting RB3 and WR3/4 early, because it will be at the expense of my IDP's, which now mean something. As for Point 2, I tried to live by that motto. Take sure things early because depth doesn't mean much in this league unless you are hoping on a trade, which may never come. Draft Strategy Since I had the 3rd pick, my early strategy was: 1.03 Get one of the consensus studs at RB with pick 1 - LJ, LT, or SA. 2.12 Get a 2nd RB in the 2nd Round if Bush, Parker, or C. Taylor makes it to me. If all those guys are gone, scrap RB2 and take a stud WR from my top 8 list. 3.03 Pray that one of my top 8 WR's makes it here. If not, grab Gates. 4.12 - 24.12 Play it by ear. My early strategy worked great. I landed what I wanted at my 1st 3 picks with Alexander, Taylor, and Boldin. As the draft went on, new strategy bullet points entered my brain, including: 1. Try to get two top 10 IDP's before I focus on depth. IDP 10-50 will be inconsistant, but there are 10 or so guys out there that will give me 8 points per week, worst case. This strategy worked, but at the expense of getting a RB3 - see below. 2. Try and grab 1 solid #3 RB that I can count on. After that, don't sweat RB's, I have survived with the following RB's being drafted as my RB3+: 2004 - Travis Minor, James Jackson, Maurice Morris, Dominic Rhodes. 2005 - Michael Bennett, Reuben Droughns, Chester Taylor (but in 2005 Jamal Lewis was my starter!!!). I thought this strategy worked. I was really liking Greg Jones, and he goes and blows his ACL. Oh the torture of a slow draft. I'm happy to get Toefield later, though. In the end, are my backup RB's of Washington, Toefield, and Morris really that much different than what I had in 2004 and 2005? Probably not, so, I am not too worried. 3. Stock up on startable/replacement QB's, they can be traded for a discount (for the owner needing a QB) if I have 3 of them. I ended up with Bulger, Brooks, and Favre. One may miss, but all three missing is a longshot. It's a lot easier to trade a QB2 for a LB2 or WR3 when you have a QB3 that can fill in if neccessary. QB's are important and valuable in this league. 4. Try the 2004 MC route and take a shot at Vernon Davis as a backup TE, since he has Gates' raw skills. If he misses, cut 'em, but if not, it could do wonders for my team. 5. Look at WR's that will be undervalued. I targeted Horn, Clayton, and Burleson since the beginning of the draft. The all had poo poo years, but all three have had their siuations change for the better (Horn - healthy, Clayton - healthy and fit, Burleson - on Seattle, where every season the RIFC ends up having the WR1-WR3 starting on someones roster). Overall, I think I hit my strategy well. Sure, I had a couple picks I wish I could give back now, but that is what happens in a slow draft. I'm sure most people will look at my team and say "he has no RB depth," but honestly, it is not that important in this league. There will be Gado's this year and their will be 3rd down backs out there. Heck, MC won the 2004 league with Barlow (round 1) and Travis Henry (round 2) as his starting RB's. Overall, I feel like my entire starting lineup is decent. 2. What were your favorite picks? Which do you wish you could do over? My value picks (people that should of gone sooner): Burleson, Troupe. Surprise Picks (people that I could of likely gotten later): Marcus Washington, Leon Washington. 3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)? After really looking at it, everyone really does have holes, so, it comes down to who has the least holes (in no particular order): Beezer - QB's average, RB's good, WR's great, TE average, K average, D's fair, DL good, LB's great, DB average. youngroman - QB's average, RB's good, WR's great, TE great, K average, D's good, DL great, LB's great, DB fair. That's really it for people with only a single "fair" rating. Everyone else has multiple "fairs" at their positions. 4. What surprised you most about the draft? Doug starting some questionable choices early with IDP and Def, but his team looks fine right now, so, in the end he certainly didn't crap the bed and his strategy may work. 5. If you could start over, would you do anything differently? My macro strategy worked out fine, but on an individual pick level, of course I would change some, including: 9.03 Greg Jones, should of been Barlow or Duckett 11.03 Marcus Washington, should of been Pacman Jones 18.12 Leon Washington, should of been anybody else | ||||||
| 11 | Doug ID: 33772914 Fri, Sep 01, 2006, 02:50 |
1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned? Yeah, pretty much went as planned. Knew that with my draft slot I’d want to go RB-RB unless something really unusual happened. I prefer not to take the shotgun approach of drafting a ton of RBs and seeing which one pans out… just go with a couple who you’re convinced will be solid fantasy starters, and try to make sure your RB3 is going to at least see the field each week even if he’s not a starter. After round 1 mostly just go for what I perceive is best value… which is a subjective tradeoff between projection-based “VBD”, positional scarcity or “tiers”, my own subjective feelings about players, and as we get into mid-to-later rounds roster considerations become more important too. 2. What were your favorite picks? Which do you wish you could do over? I like my mid-round picks a lot… guys like Barber, Welker, Bryant, Warner. Also really happy to get Michael Turner in round 17… IMHO he’s got the highest upside of any player since round 5. Of course, only an LT injury would allow that to happen, and I wish nothing bad on LT. I’m just saying that IF something were to happen, I could easily see Turner being a top-10 RB this year. I really think he’s that good… he just happens to be stuck in a #2 role. Do-overs… Vinatieri. That’s pretty much it I think. I could have taken Mike Peterson in round 6 and still gotten Carolina in round 7… but Andra Davis is no slouch either. Maybe could have waited on Kitna… should have taken Ben Watson instead… but I wanted 2 QBs who I felt had potential for putting up big games and not many were left. 3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)? Top teams (should make playoffs) Hubble - I think his team is pretty solid… although I’m not convinced Leftwich is a QB1 and his flex IDPs are a little weak. I had both Leftwich and McNair last year and even playing “matchups” I didn’t do so well. Maybe I was just a year early on ol’ Lefty, but if I was Hubble I’d want a better second option behind Leftwich than Pennington just in case things don’t pan out in JAX. His squad has the ultimate building block in LJ though… that guy will practically win a few games single-handedly! ;-) Culdeus – Same comments as Beezer. I also loved reading his rationales and rants. Always nice to have some character, even if I disagree with many of his assessments. It’s all in good fun! Beezer – Solid team, good depth, should be in the hunt all year. TB – I like his team a lot, only area I see as a little iffy is his flex IDP slots. He took a few guys I was eyeing for my next pick… Matt Jones, Ben Watson, Maroney, Roethlisberger. Guru – If I had to swap, I’d probably take this team. I swear I’m not brown-nosing. Could use a 5th WR, and I think he missed out a bit on the high-end LBs, but quality across the board should pay off. Doug – Warner has high upside with studs Fitzgerald and Boldin to throw to, a new red-zone target rookie TE, and hopefully a decent running game from Edge. I really liked my round 8 through 10 picks, and I love having 3 top-10 LBs as well. If those LBs stay healthy they could really provide a solid nucleus that will combine for 30 ppg, which is “more than a touchdown” advantage compared to most other teams top 3 LBs I think. I’m also psyched about my later round picks… and in most cases where it may look like I “reached” for a player at K, D, IDP, etc… I still wound up getting the same or similar RB/WR/etc. several rounds later… so I don’t feel I really gave up much in order to stake my unconventional claims. ”On the bubble” teams (could go either way) Leggestand - Tough break for Legge losing his 9th rounder before we even get started! But I think he’s got a solid enough team that he’ll be fine w/o him… though I’m guessing he now wishes he had a little more RB depth. Youngroman – Might be my favorite team of starters (other than my own!) if I felt a little more confident in his RB#2 position. He’s got a stockpile though, increasing his odds that someone will emerge. I just don’t know how things are going to work out for the Saints this year, and how Deuce’s split with Bush will affect him… but then again, for round 4 I guess you can’t complain. Plummer and Gates were really nice picks IMHO. Somehow even though I like his starters, I think overall depth could be a problem… even at RB where he stockpiled a bunch. IAC – A lot could ride on the Branch situation… does he perform like a 5th rounder, or is he basically AWOL for much of the year (and if so, how well does he perform upon his return?). Seemed he took a few guys early in the same round that I was hoping they’d fall to me… Lee Evans, Trent Green, Darren Sharper, McCardell, Jones-Drew… s R – I’d want a better backup to Palmer, just in case. RB seems thin. The rest looks pretty good to me… but nothing eye-popping. ”Need a break” teams (off to a slow start IMHO) Motley Crue – Dunno… his IDPs seem to be a little bit of a weak point IMHO. Some question marks on his RBs but enough depth that he’s likely to be fine most weeks. Will Manning be sufficiently dominant this year? If so, he could totally carry this fantasy team to the playoffs… but that seems too risky of a proposition to me. GoatLocker - No glaring weakness, but his squad doesn’t really “wow” me either. Stallworth heading to Philly probably helps him out a bit. Mainly just glad to know the manager of this squad is healthy. =-) I guess sacrificing the virgin into the molten lava of Mt. St. Helens worked. Once GL gets fully recovered, I expect he’ll probably regret the sacrifice and wish I had simply sent her to San Diego instead. AthleticsGuy – I feel his offensive team is loaded with upside guys (Culpepper, Fred Taylor, WRs) all of whom could also end up busting for various reasons. His IDPs are OK, but certainly not going to carry the team, so he needs his offensive cards to fall the right way… seems to me the “riskiest” team, but IF it all holds together could be VERY strong. Valkyrie – RB is definitely a concern… as I see it only Lamont Jordan is a bonafide starter at this time. (Addai has question marks… Jacobs looked really good tonight, but Tiki’s clearly the #1 guy). Yikes. Not real psyched about the #3 WR slot here either. 4. What surprised you most about the draft? The undervaluing (IMHO) of the stud IDPs… and the overvaluing (IMHO) of what I consider “3rd-tier” IDPs. 5. If you could start over, would you do anything differently? It’s hard to say since I spent so much time on the road during this draft… I think I might have waited a little longer on some picks, etc… but since I didn’t really feel on top of things, I tended to just go for the players I knew I wanted and not worry so much about whether they might have slid to next round, etc. For example, if I waited on IDPs, I wouldn’t have gotten both Vilma AND Bulluck. And what did I give up? I took an RB in Round 9 instead of Round 4… Marion Barber instead of guys like Deuce, Fred Taylor, Addai, Gore. *shrug* I'd rank Taylor and Gore slightly ahead of Barber since they're starting feature backs… but really don’t feel there was much loss there. Barber will see the field plenty and if/when JJ goes down will be in a feature role. Maybe I could have had a WR like Houshmanzadeh instead of Welker… but I think it was worth it to get the particular IDPs that I wanted. I feel Vilma and Bulluck are just a class unto themselves in IDP-ville. The dropoff at IDP isn't as severe as the elite RBs obviously, but then again they come a few rounds later, and you're basically comparing LB 1 vs. LB 40-50 (rather than RB 1 vs. RB 28-32)... so I think it makes sense. We'll see! | ||||||
| 12 | Guru ID: 330592710 Fri, Sep 01, 2006, 15:20 |
1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned? Observe and react. After drafting a QB in the first round in each of the first two years, I expected to draft RB/RB in the first 2 rounds this year. I never really even considered Peyton in round 1. (Two years ago, Culpepper was a critical ingredient to my success. But last year, Peyton was only tangentially involved, traded for Priest Holmes in mid-season, just before Holmes went down.) I really didn’t think through a strategy for IDPs, even though we needed two more. Again, I decided to observe and react. I did use the Draft Dominator from footballguys.com for the second year, but I used it mostly used as a screening and organization tool. I seldom made the recommended pick. 2. What were your favorite picks? Which do you wish you could do over? I don’t really have a favorite. I have second guessed a few, however. Maybe I should have taken Reggie Bush in round #2, instead of Droughns. With return yardage, Bush could be much more valuable than standard cheat sheets have ranked him. Other than Bush, I wish I had handcuffed my RBs better. I played guts twice, and got scooped by youngroman twice. Kevan Barlow was a pivotal player. When the news of his trade arrived just in time for my pick, I was torn. I finally decided not to look the gift horse in the mouth, but I’m not convinced he’ll play much for me, and without him I wouldn’t have taken Cedric Houston a few rounds later, and maybe I’d have been more likely to land a few other backup RBs who eluded me. Or maybe Barlow will be the linchpin in my successful defense of the league title! I’m pretty sure that the timing of that pick was either a blessing or a curse. Only time will tell. 3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)? It’s hard enough for me to keep track of my own team. I’ll defer. 4. What surprised you most about the draft? a. The speed. Usually, there are one or two managers who are chronically slow. Not this time. b. I thought that return yardage was considered more heavily in this draft than in prior years. Often, I think it was overvalued. I usually try to keep these guys on my radar, but most were going well before they made it to my short list. As a consequence, Pacman Jones is the only player I have whose value was materially influenced by return yardage. And maybe I overreached for him, although I thought that the biggest risk to his return yardage would be if he was being used more heavily on defense – not necessarily a bad thing. c. the number of times that youngroman stole my preferred choice right in front of me, even late in the draft. 5. If you could start over, would you do anything differently? Handcuff some of my RBs a round earlier. Other than that, if I could do it over, I doubt if I would do much else differently. | ||||||
| 13 | Motley Crue Dude ID: 439372011 Fri, Sep 01, 2006, 15:35 | Heh, maybe Barlow is this year's Travis Minor, eh, Guru? | ||||||
| 14 | Guru ID: 330592710 Fri, Sep 01, 2006, 16:28 |
I don't recall any Travis Minor lore from prior years. What am I forgetting? I just hope he's not this year's Travis Henry! | ||||||
| 15 | I_AM_CANADIAN ID: 35834119 Fri, Sep 01, 2006, 20:52 |
I decided to make a part 2 of my rational based upon data pulled from the 2006 RIFC leagues: Consolidated draft summary . After quickly looking through the #s, I had these reflections to add: Reaches / I coulda waited over a round for these guys Will Witherspoon, I think his new situation warranted the pickup, but it's a little disconcerting that me and my brother (Letter_J AAA#1) drafted him in the 8th, and everyone else MUCH later. Antwaan Randle El who I believe is underated due to his KR/PR duties. Mewelde Moore with injury concerns and potentially lost the backup role, no longer a 13th round worthy pick. Brian Simmons, I believe to be undervalued… even if Thurman comes back in week 6, there is no indication that he'll take back the Mike. Darren Sharper if based upon pure DEF #s, then yup I reached… I'm hoping for a little PR goodness though. Value / Drafted 1 round or more later Lee Evans - 1 Round on AVG Keenan McCardell - 1 Round on AVG David Carr - Over 1.5 Rounds on AVG Ian Gold - 1.1 Round on AVG John Abraham - Almost 5 Rounds on AVG Eric Parker - 1.5 Rounds on AVG Maurice Jones-Drew - Almost 4 Rounds on AVG Dallas Clark - 4 Rounds on AVG Overall... the last few rounds of the draft is where I really stock-pilled on ADP value. If my #s I ran were correct, I avg'd getting ever pick 3.75 later than the avg. However, IF the rest of the leagues drafted horribly, that means absolutely nothing. | ||||||
| 16 | Motley Crue ID: 432501119 Sat, Sep 02, 2006, 08:20 |
Two seasons ago, Travis Minor appeared to be the starter for the Dolphins after it was announced that Ricky Williams was retiring. He was drafted heavily, although not until the 4th or 5th rounds, or later, in most drafts, as I recall. Then the Dolphins traded for one of the Rams' backups (Lamar Gordon?) and all of the Minor owners griped a little. Then the former Ram shredded his knee (I think) in a preseason game or practice. So it appeared Minor would be the guy. Basically the Dolphins weren't very good that year and got Dave Wannstedt fired midstream. I think Barlow will have better numbers than Travis Minor did in 2004. Maybe not way better, but there'll be something there. | ||||||
| 17 | leggestand ID: 517112818 Sat, Sep 02, 2006, 08:43 | I took Minor as my 3rd RB (9thish round) in RIFC 2004. Solid pick; I backed him up with James Jackson. Almost as good as MC's first two picks that year. | ||||||
| 18 | The Beezer Leader ID: 191202817 Sat, Sep 02, 2006, 09:13 |
I remember that as I had drafted Minor in round 7 of RQFL #2. And I griped a lot when they traded for Gordon as he was picked up by whoever was on the clock in round 16 (too lazy to look it up). I think Barlow will do better than that, but he's still Barlow. | ||||||
| 19 | Hubble ID: 185332620 Sat, Sep 02, 2006, 10:55 |
1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned? My last 2 RIFC team were prove that you can have some success even with some very bad picks as long as you have a core of players that gives you constant production and draft a bunch of guys that can go crazy on any given weeks and with a little luck, to make it easier, you draft the steal of the draft. In 2004 I had Muhammad and his 16 beautiful TD in the 11th round, but drafted Kevin Barlow in 1.12. In 2005 I was fortunate enough to have S.A. and his 27 TD but drafted JJ Arrington in 2nd round. So the draft obviously has to be taken as a whole. IDP certainly made it different this year, but I didn’t want to be obsessed with them while drafting, I figured if I have 2 top 20 LB and 1 top 10 DB and DL should be fine. FLEX # 1-2 could be obtain through F/A. I ended up taking my flex IDP in 18th-19th round and I think it was reasonable. My strategy was then, to pick studs whenever possible, reliable, proven guys with a record and not being injury-risks that will give me 8pts + every week, then target 2-3 players risk/reward type that I thought could have a brake out year (or come back), and try to mix all that with the schedule so that I’ll be competitive any given weeks. Did I succeed? I feel my first 3 picks are as solid as possible... L.J. + Moss + Harrisson... each of these guys can win the match-up by themselves and provide me 30pts+ weeks, as long as the rest of the crew gives me something to build on. Fletcher (6th) and Trotter (9th), Clements and Coleman gives me stability in IPD and I didn’t overpay for my last 2 IDP that would have been dump anyway, I preferred stack on WR and RB in case one brake out. 2. What were your favorite picks? Which do you wish you could do over? As mentioned, the trio of LJ, Moss, Harrisson is certainly nice to see on paper, even though it is RB-WR-WR. TB Defense in 13th round and the value of my 3 main IDPs Fletcher-Trotter-Clement (6th-9th-10th). I wish Marty Booker will get along with Culpepper.... Maybe I could have waited on Heath Miller (8th), but then again I really wanted him so I reached. Of course, I’m a bit nervous not to have a better QB to second Leftwich, but perhaps I’ll address that later via trade. I always hate wasting a 7th rounder to grab a rookie that might play only in second half of season, so Lendale White in the 7th is not my favorite even though I feel it’s not overpaid when I watch other picks around him. 3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)? I still haven’t done my in-depth analyse... at first glance: Leggestand, Guru and Beezer. 4. What surprised you most about the draft? The speed of the draft and how the IDP were flying of the board in round 10-15, before back up WR & RB. 5. If you could start over, would you do anything differently? Grab a better back-up QB... I was aiming at Brooks for my 12.14 (went 12.12) Then I targeted Favre-Rivers-McNair-Brees for my 14.14 (they all went 14th rounder). In french we would say that I was “caught with my pants down”. I think my team would look way stronger with a Brooks-type-QB as my back-up. | ||||||
| 20 | GoatLocker Sustainer ID: 060151121 Sat, Sep 02, 2006, 16:15 |
1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned? RB, RB, RB – I know, that is my norm, but it really is the way I draft. Not real happy with the way it came out. Of course, the two RBs I really wanted there went right in front of me to leggestand and IAC. In fact, it seems like my whole draft went that way in that one of the two of them took my next pick every even round. That said, the one thing that did appear to work was once I got over that hump and decided on the pair I wanted to take, I didn’t lose a single odd round pick to Hubble. I guess we were matched up well looking at different players. Following is part of why I wait on WR. How many WR had five or more 100 yard games last year? The answer is… 8. That’s right. 31 teams, 3 main WR each…. Only 8 WR had 5 or more 100 yard games. Okay, now can you guess who they were? Steve Smith with 9. The Arizona studs – Boldin with 8 and Fitzgerald with 7. Torry Holt and Marvin Harrison with 6 each. The final three to have five 100 yard games? Santana Moss, Eddie Kennison and Donald Driver. And do you know how many on this list made the year before’s “At least 5 games over 100 yards or more?” Two. Torry Holt and Eddie Kennison. Now, we’ll go back to 2004. Know who is on the list from 2004 that is on 2006’s list? Two guys: Torry Holt and Anquan Boldin. Three years and only one guy is on all three lists. Only two others – Boldin and Kennison – make the list more than once in three years. Sure goes a long way toward telling me exactly how inconsistent WRs are from year to year. Let’s look at the RB from last year that had 100 total yards games: There were 21. 31 teams, only one main RB on most teams and 21 of them had at least five 100 yard games. Let’s look at the list, with the number of 100 yards games they had in parentheses: Edge (13), Tiki (13), Alexander (12), Portis (12), Larry Johnson (11), Dunn (11) Jordan (8), Dom Davis (8), Westbrook (8), Tomlinson (7), S Jackson (7), C Williams (7), Droughns (7), M Anderson (6), Thomas Jones (6), Mewelde Moore (6), McGahee (6), W Parker (6), J Jones (6), Rudi Johnson (6) Chris Brown (6) 21 compared to eight. And look at the list closer. The only real surprises - people not drafted fairly high - were only there due to injury: Parker, LJ and Anderson. (Due to Shanahan being nuts). 2. What were your favorite picks? Which do you wish you could do over? Like the TJ pick in the 4th round, thought it was good value and he could surprise. The Hasselbeck pick was early than I would have liked to get a QB, but knew he would not be there in the 6th round when it swung back around to me. Also liked the Donnie Edwards pick in round 6. DeAngelo Williams in the 9th round could also turn out to be a nice value pick. Did not like my pick of Algae Crumpler in the 7th round and still don’t like it. Just not sure I saw anybody else I wanted to go with at that time. And I really don’t know what the heck I was doing in the 10th round with the Kendrell Bell pick. Hopefully my gut was right. 3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)? Hard to tell, but off the top of my head with no analysis other than my gut, I would say Leggestand, Motley Crue, TB, Guru, Young Roman 4. What surprised you most about the draft? Just never seemed to get in sync with this draft. Not real unhappy with it, but not real happy either. Not much surprises me about RIFC drafts after the first two years. Other than the ability for your Queue to be emptied very quickly. And maybe the willingness to take players a round or two early if people really want them. 5. If you could start over, would you do anything differently? Probably not much. Just never know. It’s really driven by the flow of the draft. Only time will tell. | ||||||
| 21 | Valkyrie ID: 507242617 Sun, Sep 03, 2006, 13:03 |
1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned? I don't really have a strategy as a draft is a read and react-I did have 3 basic precepts which I tried to follow (1) It took me two years of languishing in AAA to get here so I probably want to stay more than the rest of you- with that in mind my first precept was to try to keep my early rounds safe as long as I could. My second precept was to try to be a leader not a follower and (3) I wanted to address IDP and defense sooner than most. My safety strategy lasted exactly 3 rounds, after taking the safe RB and 2 quality WR's I needed another RB and made the make or break pick of Joseph Addai. 3 things can happen with Addai (a) he could be a total bust (b) he could be a back up getting split carries hopefully scoring like those starting backs with bad lines and bad teams (Gore,Draughns) or the average Denver trishare or (c) he can win the job in which case I might challenge for the title. At any rate not a safe pick nor was McNabb at #5 although I was very relieved he was still available. With the McNabb pick I became a follower breaking both precepts 1 and 2 - my draft was looking ominous at this point. Fortunately my draft turned with pick #6 when I took Delhomme at backup QB giving me protection against a McNabb injury and someone whom I feel confident would fetch a decent starting RB in trade once the QB injuries start taking effect should I elect to go in that direction. After that I was able to return to trend setting (taking team Defense, DL, DB before the runs) rather than following although I really didn't get to my defense as fast as I would have liked. 2. What were your favorite picks? Which do you wish you could do over? Delhomme was my favorite also happy with Curtis in the 12th, Strahan in the 13th and some late chance picks. As far as do-overs go I am not sure I wouldn't rathe rhave TO or Fitzgerald instead of Holt since my safety strategy didn't work anyway. 3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)? see seperate post 4. What surprised you most about the draft? The speed and the quality. Everyone was having their choices snatched from under them- you couldn't let anyone ride for a round hoping he's get back to you. This was occurring even in the late rounds and it definitely affected my strategy as I started to lock the guys I really wanted up a round earlier than I thought I had to (NY Defense, G.Wilson, Curtis, The early mini run on QB's late 4th early 5th and then the abrupt cessation of the run enabling me to get McNabb/Delhomme. The fact that managers addressed IDP's esp LB's much earlier than I expected. 5. If you could start over, would you do anything differently? I just hope that I get to do it over in RIFC again next year! | ||||||
| 22 | Athletics Guy ID: 167191017 Mon, Sep 04, 2006, 23:11 |
1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned? Early on, I wanted to grab 2 good running backs with my first 2 to be on the safe side. Things didn't go as planned though, as Terrell Owens was just too tempting at 2.10. After that, I thought I was going to get either Dillon or J. Lewis in the 3rd. Unfortunately, I missed getting Lewis by 1 pick. So, I decided to get another WR instead, thinking there was more value there. A couple rounds later, I find myself with Fred Taylor and Ahman Green, a fantasy manager's nightmare. What I'm hoping for here is that at least one of those 2 guys will have a huge year (or at least make it through the year). With the changes in the number of IDP's we have to start, I wanted to draft a solid group of LBs. Unfortunately, that didn't work out either. I kept missing my LB guy every round, and by the time I did draft one, he was borderline top 20. I did make up for that by selecting a great group of DBs though. I feel Polamalu, Barber and Williams can score as many points as most of the linebackers that were picked around the same time. But, I'm still somewhat disappointed in missing out on players like Ray Lewis, Zach Thomas, Donnie Edwards, etc. My team has a lot of injuries issues, especially with my IDP's and RBs. I noticed this as I was drafting. Normally, I play it safe, but for some reason I kept taking players with risks (and that's not even counting the risks associated with Owens). I think I did a good enough job of adding depth to those positions though. So, if someone were to miss games, I have guys that can fill in the holes if needed. 2. What were your favorite picks? Which do you wish you could do over? My favorite pick would have have to be Terrell Owens (even though I hate the guy). He may very well end up as the #1 scorer among WRs. And to get him in the latter part of the 2nd round makes this pick such a steal. I also like my Daunte Culpepper pick. Every season, there are players who perform much better than where they are drafted. And I think this year, Culpepper is going to be one of those guys. My least favorite pick that I would like to do over would be Todd Heap in the 5th round. Now, I like Heap. He's going to put up great numbers for a TE. But I also think Alge Crumpler would have given me the same kind of production. He was the next TE taken, nearly 2 rounds later. As they say, hindsight is 20/20. 3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)? Hubble: This is a team to be feared. With the exception of maybe the QB position, Hubble's team is stacked with the NFL's best weapons (LJ, Moss, Harrison). Getting the Benson/Thomas combo was also a great move that shouldn't be overlooked. TB: I think this is another solid team. The team is well-balanced with high-scoring IDPs and some great offensive players. TB did a good job of taking the best return yardage players (Hall & McGee) without really making a reach for either one. Doug: Normally, fantasy football is won through the strength of the skill position players, but Doug may prove otherwise. While the team is lacking in the WR positions, he more than makes up for it with his talented group of LBs. 4. What surprised you most about the draft? There was very little that surprised me through the draft. If anything, I wasn't expecting some of the backup/handcuff RBs to be drafted so early. 5. If you could start over, would you do anything differently? I would have managed my bye week situations a lot better. I was too focused on drafting the best player available (which isn't necessarily a bad thing) that I forgot to take my bye weeks into account. My #2 RB combo of Fred Taylor and Ahman Green have the same bye and a lot of my IDPs are in the same situation. | ||||||
| 23 | TB Sherpa ID: 031811922 Tue, Sep 05, 2006, 01:21 |
The Draft Plan and Execution I was fairly certain that I was going to start the draft RB-RB-WR. I mocked this draft quite a few times at 4for4.com and I was never happy with my team if I didn't grab my second RB in the second round. In every mock, running backs went early and often and the same held true for our draft. I did not have a draft plan or strategy. Just a couple guidelines that aren't rocket science: 1) Don't believe ADP hype. If I want a guy and think I am going to be grumpy when he goes a couple picks before me then don't over think what I am doing and just draft him. 2) Don't let others dictate my draft. Runs happen and I didn't want to get caught up in them for the sole purpose of keeping up by position. 3) Draft players I am happy having on my team. You ever draft a guy because projections say he is going to get X amount of points and yet you didn't really like the player? Have you ever decided who you were going to select well before your pick came up, knowing he would be a great fit for your line-up, and then tripled-checked your "draft science" when your turn came up and found out it told you that you needed a different guy instead? I didn't mind dropping down a couple "points" on my cheat sheet to get the guy that I felt more comfortable having on my squad or going with the gut over the cheat sheet. With my first three picks I was in full swing with "the plan" going RB-RB-WR and grabbing three players I love having on my team. I admit that I had several RB ranked over Edge before I picked him and if my turn came up the day prior I might have changed who I was going to pick a dozen times, but there were no backs remaining that I liked as a fan as much as him and none that were ranked so much higher that it would make a major impact on my total points (based on projections) over the season. Ward wasn't the receiver I was hoping to get, but the others were already drafted and he is a player I have had on at least a couple of teams the last few years. In both leagues, the last two years that I've drafted in this format, nine teams have had their starting QB before the draft got back to me for my 5th round selection. I felt that I got very lucky with Brady last year in the 7th round and with a combo of Leftwich/Plummer the year prior in the 9th and 10th rounds. There were some weeks that first year that the opposing QB demolished my starter and I never recovered. Prior to the first preseason game, I was thinking about waiting and trying to snag Brooks in the latter rounds. I had a good feeling about him and am a Raider homer that spends a lot of time reading Raider news and forums. By the time the 4th round had gotten to me and we had a week of preseason under our belts, I felt like there was a lot of QB uncertainty. Palmer, McNabb, and Culpepper had question marks. Bulger is in a new offense. Vick is a player I am never comfortable starting. Peyton was gone and little brother Eli had a good season last year, but could he do it again? The only two remaining QBs I felt confident about were Brady and Hasselbeck and I knew I wanted to score consistent points from this position. The questions have been answered with McNabb, Cpep, and Palmer and I would feel good about having any of those guys now, but I wanted what I felt was a sure thing from this position and no matter how many times I say I hate the Patriots, I sure do enjoy watching Brady play. For the rest of my draft I picked who I felt to be the best value for my roster, based on my needs and the players available. I grabbed my back-up QB and depth at RB and WR before drafting all of my IDP starters. Doug helped start an early run on linebackers that I refused to get caught up in. I wanted a top LB, but I made the choice to go QB early and grabbed the top DB. I had to address my WR starters before I could go back to IDP. My weakness every year is my starting receivers and I wanted to take care of it early. In hindsight, they are unremarkable yet again this year. I do like Brooking and have had him on my teams the last two years. I think he is capable of being a top 15 LB. I have to admit a mistake somewhere along the line too. I miscounted IDP starters and didn't realize that I had to start a 2nd drafted LB until I went to set my line-ups after the draft. I thought I grabbed enough IDP flex starters with my DB's. I will blame that on my recent injury or more accurately, the medicine I am taking for that injury. I am loopy. I do like my DB's and instead of reaching for mid-level LBs after missing the top players, I chose to grab my top rated DBs. I do hope Tilman can reproduce his season from last year and just read a recent story confirming that Gamble is the primary punt returner. Favorite Picks and Do-Overs Other than my defense, I like all the players on my roster. I want to talk about my 5th round pick, McGee. I know that I already stated in my rationale that he was the second highest scoring IDP last year with 164.14 points in 15 games which was 20+ points more than the 2nd rated DB. IIRC, he scored 187 points the year prior. Two years in a row is not a fluke, but it is enough proof for me that he is a top player and someone I want on my team. If Gates is a worth a 3rd rounder, isn't McGee worth a 5th rounder? I think so and he fit all the criteria from my draft guidelines. If he does it a third year in a row, there's a good chance he won't be around in the 5th next year. If everyone made the same picks other than the players I picked getting taken before I got to go again and I had a time machine here is a possible different draft scenario for my team: 4th Round- take Houshmandzadeh instead of Brady 6th round- take Culpepper instead of Hall 8th round- take Michael Clayton instead of Brooking 16th round- take Wali Lundy instead of Washington I am happy with my team, but I always hate to see other teams "steal" my players before they make it back to me. I wasn't that high on Houshmandzadeh when the 4th round came around, but after seeing Palmer playing well in preseason week 3, I wish I had grabbed him. Same with Culpepper. He will have as good a season as Brady and maybe even better and was drafted three rounds later. I hated missing on Clayton and could have had him as my 4th receiver. If he plays like he did in '04, lots of teams are going to be upset they let him slip to the 8th round. I don't want to talk about Lundy. Other Teams I know Culdeus hates it when I do this, but I like every team in the league and have a fear that I will lose every single week. Hubble- Maybe no "stud QB" and a few question marks for that 2nd and 3rd IDP starter, but he has LJ, Chicago running game, solid receivers, great defense, and a couple very good IDP. Goatlocker- I am in too many leagues and have played too many years against him to ever underestimate his teams. Even with a wasted 3rd round pick, he is still solid at RB, good receivers, solid QB, and some solid IDP. He has a few questionable IDP, but I am sure he will plug those holes early. Leggestand- There is a reason this is his third year in the RIFC. He drafts well and gets value at every pick. I love this team from top to bottom, especially if Chester Taylor stays healthy all year. IAC- I watched him lead the RIBC for the first half of the year because he drafted players who have had solid careers and because he plugs holes quickly. Very active manager. He drafted a lot of players who I wasn't high on this year, but who either had solid years last year or have had them in the recent past. He did the same thing in baseball and has kicked our butt. If Rivers gets the ball to McCardell like Brees did last year, what a steal in the 11th. Solid team from top to bottom. A's Guy- Love the QB, TE, and the WRs. I was wondering when Porter would go and should have jumped earlier knowing he is a Raider fan. Played the DB game with me when everyone else was playing the LB game. Probably has the best group of pure DB's in the league. I say that because I am counting on return yards. I actually like the RB group he has if Taylor or Green, either one, can be healthy for him weekly. LB position is a little questionable, but look who's talking. Beezer- Great receiving corps and solid at LB. I really like the RB if Gore can stay healthy. SF has to be a little better this year and no more Barlow. I am not a fan of Vick or Cooley, but both are top 10 guys. Lots of offensive depth. Culdeus- I don't ever want to have a fantasy football season where I am not in a league with this guy. Great league mate and one whose opinion I always look forward to reading. I don't always agree, but he doesn't hold any punches. Our third year together in this format. His team is very solid in every position except for RB and that could turn out to be okay. The defensive side of the ball is solid, good QB combo and great WR. If Lundy or Rhodes steps up, will be okay until Portis gets healthy. A little worried if Foster gets hurt and Portis has nagging injuries. Usually drafts a little safer at the RB position. Valkyrie and Youngroman- I am listing these two together because I hated drafting between the two. Man, they took so many players I was eyeballing. Both have good QBs, really good receivers, and they both did a great job on the defensive side of the ball. Valkyrie has the better QB and didn't address his RB#2 with a solid player. Pinning some hopes on Addai or Davis to come in and vulture some TD's. If Deuce stays healthy and gets a decent amount of carries every week, Youngroman has a very solid team all around. Guru- I was shocked when he didn't draft Manning in the first round. Shocked again when he drafted a 2nd RB in the second round. I don't believe Guru anymore when he says fantasy football is his worst sport. Champ and runner-up the last two years and I think this team was probably his best drafted one. That is scary. Maybe more for him, though, because if I like it that could be bad news. Solid at every position. I think weakest area is LB, but I say that because we don't know what Sims and Hawk or going to do. He might have four top 30 LB, but he might not have any top 30 LB. Doug- The best part about being in this league is getting to draft and BS with league mates when drafting. Outside of my bro Erik, I think I talked most with Doug this year between calls and emails. I really like his team and like the approach he took, minus the two kicker thing. Did anyone else catch the humor in Guru's rationale for Houston? Very solid on the defensive side of the ball. I like the QB combo, both could have huge years. McGahee is going to have a great season. Winslow could finally have a great season. Took some risks at the WR position, but Roy Williams, Bryant, and Welker could all have great seasons. I didn't check the schedule, but I hope I get to play Doug in week 8. MC- Who else can draft Manning in the first round, get two top WR, and still end up with three starting RB? That is assuming Darrell Jackson is healthy and plays. I like Simms backing up Manning and think he could have a huge season too. I am concerned with his IDP selections, but that's been the case every year in this format and he somehow finds guys to fill the holes. Like Legge and Guru, he's stayed in the RIFC for a reason and has a championship so I can't underestimate his skills. YR- Palmer in the 5th round? Lucky dog. I love Willie Parker and have since before last season. I expect him to do even better this year. Solid receivers, TE, defense. The entire team is solid. I am not a great judge of LB, so don't know if all of them pan out to be top guys, but I do think he has enough solid IDP to plug any holes. Final Thoughts Great draft, guys. I started to get annoyed when it took more than an hour for someone to make their pick near the end of the draft because I was spoiled. I like a fast-paced draft and this one didn't disappoint. I think every team was able to get a player they wanted a little later than they expected, but I believe that is because the talent level is deep at so many positions this year and we draft a lot of positions. I do not think anyone really "fell" the first 8 rounds and would challenge anyone to question any team’s picks with the information at hand then. Sure, hindsight changes a few picks, but I just looked back through and the first picks that made me frown a little were some IDP from the 9th on: 9.13 Angelo Crowell- Moving back to strong side 9.14 Karlos Dansby- Injury concerns and I had heard he lost his spot, maybe taking over will so who knows? 10.05 Jason Taylor- Too early for DL and has back issues (not going to list the rest taken before the 18th round, but do think they were all taken a bit early) 10.13 Kendrell Bell- Has been a great player in the past but might not even be a starter this year 13.12 Adam Vinatieri- Even if he was healthy, way too early for a kicker. Rackers wasn't even drafted in most leagues last year, is the top rated kicker this year and was grabbed 5 rounds later. 14.13 Sam Cowart- Not picking on GL, but is he even going to make the team? That was really about it and chances are I could be wrong about most of those guys. There were a lot more picks that I said, "Wow, great grab this late" than ones I found questionable. | ||||||
| 24 | culdeus ID: 21658420 Tue, Sep 05, 2006, 19:34 |
***OFFICIAL*** Culdeus RIFC 2006 Writeup I didn’t have time to break down each individual team this year. Work has really picked up this time around and I’ve recently had my first child which kills time at home to backtrack everyone’s draft. I’ll jump right to the final breakdown I performed last year for the AAA teams. For the most part I did ok last year on projections. I need to dig up the thread, but it looks like I got 6 of the 8 playoff teams right. Some teams I really whiffed on. I thought THK had a top 4 team and he struggled to not finish dead last. I think after two years of this I’ve really got a handle on how this league works. My first year I made a major mistake in trying to break in the Dominator. In the previous years I stuck with the cheatsheets.net excel sheets and used my own intuition from there. It took me a few drafts to really figure out how to tweak the dominator to point out the right things. I keep two projections, mine, and dodds’, and this year with “projection dominator” I kept a projection table with: 25% 2005 Stats 25% Dodds 25% Me 25% FBG Staff I used this more or less to run this draft. My own projections were primarily used this year to wipe guys off lists or to tweak situations where RBBC in my opinion would work out to one guy or the other a bit more in my opinion. I don’t project IDP stats. I rather just lean on 2005 and monitor what changed around the player to see if they can exceed 2005. When I set up the Dominator I float different baselines thru, but for the most part take the average drafted player slots from the first 60 picks and use those. Joe’s Secret and Worst Starter do not, in my opinion, perform well for this league. I think Joe’s Secret is designed (well I know it’s designed) for Flex leagues. Worst starter fails because it does not adequately take into account where people will take certain positions. So I constantly adjust the baselines while drafting. | ||||||
| 25 | culdeus ID: 21658420 Tue, Sep 05, 2006, 19:35 |
Culdeus’ RIFC Manifesto I hold these truths to be self-evident about RIFC 1. This is first and foremost a points league. The H2H component, while fun provides absolutely no effect on the makeup of the playoff qualifiers. It does however seed the playoffs and will provide automatic spots to some. The fact that 8 of 14 teams get in and 2 of them get in on points means in effect, if you can just ever so slightly beat the average points for then you are in the playoffs. So when drafting I don’t care so much about variance among particular players stats. The Tatum Bells of the world have more value here than in most leagues as a result. 2. This is a RB league to a fault. I’ve always had issues with the roster requirements of this league. But, they are what they are and you just have to work with it. I think in no small way that if you can lock down two top 20 RBs then the rest will take care of itself. The delta separation from RB1 – RB 20 vs RB20-RB40 has gotten to the point where if you miss those top 20 backs you will be giving away 10-20 points a week to the league. (Remember rule number 1). There are 14 people in this league. 28 running backs will be started each and every week. RBs are not as susceptible to “good starts” as WRs and QBs that’s a given (remember TSN:Ultimate) so you have to have studs to start each and every week. 3. Individual Defensive Players should not be a big worry. I did an analysis of the IDP rankings and projections vs. what happened in reality last year. Greater than 50% of the Top 40 LBs were not ranked in the Top 40 prior to the season. It’s for this reason that by the time the bye weeks heated up some people in AAA had turned over half of their roster and in some cases all but one or two of their IDPs. They are unpredictable. Period. 4. Kicks and punt return yardage is for the most part noise in RIFC. Sure there are some good values out there, but year in and year out people fall over themselves to get McGee and the other reasonable starters that get those points. It’s just not worth worrying about because someone, somewhere will overvalue these guys and be giving up just as many points in getting them as passing on conventional guys. 5. You must take big risks to get big rewards in RIFC. There are 14 teams. This means you will have to win 3 games in a row in weeks 14-16 to take the title. Swinging for the fences is really the only solution. The “safe picks” tend to get overvalued by many because the risk-averse say “It’s a big league I can’t take an injury”. NO. That’s the wrong assumption. You play the safe card and pick the Rudi Johnson’s of the world you’ll have an average team. Not good, not bad. Average. (Refer to rule number 1) Then you’ll have to come up heads three times in a row. Good luck with all that. | ||||||
| 26 | culdeus ID: 21658420 Tue, Sep 05, 2006, 19:36 |
The breakdown I’ll now attempt somewhat scientifically to break down the teams. I think to be successful in this league you need 3 of 4 from the following list. 1. 2 top 24 RB 3 top 36 WR -I’ll use my projection matrix to empirically determine who falls in this guideline with some margin for error if WR are particularly strong while you might have a RB right on the line. 2. [ONE OF THREE] Either a top 3 QB or sufficient depth to cover either a RB1,2 WR1,2 injury or quality mix of kr/pr/pk/D/ST/TE types. -I think this grouping successfully balances three drafting styles in one subset. None of which are strong enough to make a difference, but individually they might make up some good points each week. (q)=Strong QB (d)=Depth (s)=specialists 3. Reasonable IDP personages -Meaning team has what could be described as a top 6 IDP grouping. You have to give me some bandwidth if I do not score your IDPs as top 6 if you leaned quite heavily on KR/PR. Also I scored it as if you would start 1 DL 3.5 LB and 1.5 DB. Meaning the flex would go 50/50 between LB and DB. Deal with it. Beyond that teams that met one of the criteria were credited: 4a. Gambles that might pay off BIG TIME -This means RB in RBBC situations that could clear up in their favor. QB in a new system that might explode. With a large league you need people with UPPPSIDE potential because the waiver pool is already drained. This is subjective for the most part. 4b. A squad that isn’t totally barbelled -I’m looking for squads that didn’t just totally punt on a major position. Those would be RB/WR/LB and to a lesser extent QB. You can’t just let your team waste away with single digits out of a whole section of your squad every week while building up either major depth or a group of un-tradeable commodities (IDP, TE, D/ST etc) 4c. You ended up in the top 6 teams based on my projection matrix -Easy enough right. NOTE: I added in reasonable starters for those that chose not to select DL/PK during the draft. | ||||||
| 27 | culdeus ID: 21658420 Tue, Sep 05, 2006, 19:36 |
Group 1: For sure: Legge, IAC, Beezer, culdeus, Guru, S_R Marginal: Goatlocker, Athletics Guy, TB, Hubble (If teams later have enough going for them then they will be given credit for marginals) Group 2: QB: TB, MotleyCrue, S_R Depth: Beezer, culdeus, TB, Guru, MotleyCrue Specialists: IAC, youngroman, Guru,Doug, S_R Group 3 Doug, Legge, IAC, culdeus, TB, guru Group 4 Gambles: Hubble: For taking the CHI RB gambit. Athletics Guy: Ahman Green might just have something left after all and TO looks like he might actually work out. Beezer: Waiting on RBs after Rudi worked out just fine. Bell/Gore should be good mix and match twosome Culdeus: Portis might just get it done with the shoulder. TB: Played with fire the whole draft in lots of ways. So much variance in his team it isn’t funny. Youngroman: Sure Bush might not work out and Deuce might be ok after the ACL tear Doug: Stud IDP may be the wave of the future if he has his way SR: I think his gamble on Palmer has already paid off is the thing. Not barbelled: Probably easier to ID the barbelled ones Goatlocker punted WR IAC punted WR for RB Valkyrie punted IDP Youngroman punted RB for WR Doug punted everything for IDP, PK, D/ST Motley punted RB for QB/WR S_R punted IDP This leaves Legge, culdeus, Beezer, guru, Hubble, Athletics Guy, and TB as not having a serious gaping hole. Top 6: Culdeus, TB, Beezer, youngrouman, IAC, Hubble | ||||||
| 28 | culdeus ID: 21658420 Tue, Sep 05, 2006, 19:37 |
Get to the point 2 teams had 0/4 Goatlocker Valkrie Goatlocker ends up in a world of hurt going 3RB and having that third pick go out for the year so fast. His WRs are pretty marginal and his IDPs are mostly waiver wire material. No chance. Valkrie. Now here’s a team I didn’t pay attention to during the draft. Wow what a stinker of a team. Two QBs back to back in the mid rounds and two ones that are so marginal that you can’t possibly know who to start week to week. A backup RB as an RB2 and just terrible IDP. No chance 1 team had 1/4 Motley Crue – Problem here is the Peyton dilemma. To an extent I have no problem with someone 1.8 or later taking him. It does tend to mess up their rankings in my format which are really anti-QB. So to an extent he gets a pass, but when Warrick Dunn and Chris Brown are your RBs then Warrick Dunn and Chris Brown are your RBs you know what I’m saying… Sleeper, but a deep sleeper at that. 5 teams had 2/4 Hubble – Suffers from some marginality in WR and IDP. So-So team. Not likely to win, but playoffs are well within reach. Legge – Solid all around team that didn’t grade all that well because it was such a flat draft. Took great effort to get quality players across the board and didn’t stack up anywhere. To me, this is a Top 4 team and slips through the cracks a bit in my system. Athletics – Too many question marks at key spots. Terrible IDP. No Chance. Youngroman - Stud WRs and iffy RB. Still a playoff team with strength in a lot of other areas me thinks. Doug – Took huge reaches at every single skill spot. I have no idea how the guy took pretty much everyone on his roster 8 to 100 picks too early and still grades out ok. Bubble playoff team. SR – Decent team across the board. No big holes, but no real studs. Another bubble team One team had 3/4 Beezer – Quality team up and down. Questionable IDPs, but not enough to sink him. Top 4 team quality here. Four teams had all four aspects going for them IAMCanadian – Actually not a huge fan of this team. The 3RB just can’t work long term especially when your third RB is Jamal Lewis. That and Julius is likely to be demoted very soon. Bubble playoff team. Culdeus – I set the rules, therefore I prosper. With Lundy taking center stage and Portis looking to be not that bad off I think I’m a top 4 team. TB – The more I look at this team the less I like it. It’s still a playoff team, but not top 4 material with that RB/WR group. Guru – Another team that’s all around solid, but lacks oomph. I think this is a marginal top 4 team and has lots of downside risk with the RB set. Maybe waited a little too long to get going with IDPs If any pick set him back I think it was the Shockey pick. Too early. | ||||||
| 29 | culdeus ID: 21658420 Tue, Sep 05, 2006, 19:40 |
Conclusion Top 4 Teams 3/4 make playoffs 50% chance champion here Culdeus Beezer Legge Guru Playoff Quality 3/4 make playoffs 25% chance champion here TB IAC Youngroman Hubble Bubble 1/3 make playoffs. 20% chance champion here Motley Crue Doug SR No Chance 0/3 make playoffs Goatlocker Valkrie AthleticsGuy One other person will get in. And it will likely come from the bottom two groups where somebody gets that big waiver pickup or has the Steve Smith SOD or something like that. | ||||||
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