Posted by: StLCards
- Leader [31010716] Tue, Nov 21, 2006, 19:25
I've been interested in how IDP affects the results of games, so I used the RIFC AAA1 league to do some analysis. I used data through week 10 to see what effect IDP had on scores. Out of 140 games possible, 15 (about 11%) would have had different outcomes without the inclusion of IDP scoring. I also looked at the effect of these scoring changes on overall record as I wondered if added wins and losses would tend to balance out. What I found is summarized below in the table. I got a bit tired at the end so week 11 results are in the records based on IDP scoring and no attempt at figuring out IDP adjustments to week 11 were made. There were also previously two ties that got resolved and some teams had both positive and negative adjustments to make.
Team
W
L
T
Adj W
Adj L
T
diff W
diff L
bmd
17
5
0
15
7
0
-2
2
Holt's Hillbilly Army
17
5
0
15
7
0
-2
2
Da Bomb Squad
14
8
0
11
11
0
-3
3
Sunday Trippers
14
8
0
14
8
0
0
0
2006 ShortBus Stalwarts
13
9
0
15
7
0
2
-2
Smith32
12
10
0
13
9
0
1
-1
Your Future RIFC AAA Champ
11
10
1
14
8
0
3
-2
Stl Cards
10
12
0
10
12
0
0
0
Texas Taxes
9
13
0
11
11
0
2
-2
Slowhand
9
13
0
7
15
0
-2
2
THE TRAPPERS
8
13
1
6
16
0
-2
3
Toral Wheatfarmers
8
14
0
8
14
0
0
0
The fighting Jed Clampetts
6
16
0
8
14
0
2
-2
Tree's Cage of Death
5
17
0
7
15
0
2
-2
I haven't analyzed the data in much detail, but thought I would share what I did and was wondering if this would meet with expectations of using IDP. I've always had mixed feelings on using IDP myself.
1
Trip Leader
ID: 13961611 Tue, Nov 21, 2006, 20:13
One thing that is weird...I am highest in IDP scoring and no outcome was affected while Tree is lowest and had 2 games affected, but not in the expected way.
2
holt
ID: 281058205 Tue, Nov 21, 2006, 21:19
well, IDP scoring probably makes a nice bell curve. lots of 5-9 point games, with a few stinkers and 20 pt'ers.
offensive scoring is all over the place. WR scoring average is pretty close to what IDP average is, but you don't get the same consistency. IDP's from opposing teams tend to cancel each other out. WR scoring from opposing teams can be very lopsided in a way you never see with IDP's. without looking it up, I think I've gotten anywhere from 9 pts to 50 pts from wr's in a given week. this applies to all offensive positions.
nice chart stl. I'd be interested to see the same study but applied to wr, rb, team d, etc.
3
Nerfherders
ID: 501035289 Wed, Nov 22, 2006, 13:11
I agree. IDP is not a very volatile position. In general they arent as much of a factor as offense but it seems there is enough games being decided by it to make it useful. I like it for the fact that we have to pay attention to nearly all aspects of the game instead of just offense.
I wouldnt mind making IDP a bit more interesting with the scoring however. A 'score' for an IDP is their turnovers and sacks, so I wouldnt mind seeing more points given for these. It would also make passrusher specialists a little more valuable, because they generally dont get alot of tackles. Something like this:
Sack = 5 (Sack+tackle = 6) INT = 5 (INT+PD = 6) FF = 3 FR = 3 Yards from turnover return = 1 for 10 (this might equalize those players who get a lucky break with a touchdown on a turnover)
4
StLCards Leader
ID: 31010716 Wed, Nov 22, 2006, 13:25
I was looking back at things and found I misquoted the number of games affected by the IDP scoring. The number should be 25 games out of a possible 140 games, or about 18%. Every single team would be affected in at least 1 game with the most being 8 games for a single team. The net effect on record however is +/- 3 wins for a given team.
Average (standard deviation) scoring of a team per game over 10weeks
offense+DST (no IDP): 88.46 (21.33) IDP only: 40.64 (15.25)
The scoring is less variable for IDP as compared to off+dst and the total amount of points generated by IDP is less than 1/2 of those generated by off+dst, so it is not surprising that the overall impact of IDP isn't too dramatic. While not a dramatic effect, the 3rd highest team in the standings would fall to a tie for 7th place without the benefit of IDP scoring.
5
StLCards Leader
ID: 31010716 Wed, Nov 22, 2006, 13:28
I should add that the charts I posted are correct as all 25 affected games are included in them.
6
Da Bomb
ID: 487112814 Wed, Nov 22, 2006, 13:57
the 3rd highest team in the standings would fall to a tie for 7th place without the benefit of IDP scoring.
Well that's because I keyed on good IDP during the early middle rounds of the draft. I took 4 IDPs in the 5th to 9th rounds, so I would assume my team would be much worse off if you are taking out all IDP scores. However, if IDP scores didn't exist, I would have taken offenisve players in those rounds, and thus perhaps my team would be near the top of the standings again.
7
StLCards Leader
ID: 31010716 Wed, Nov 22, 2006, 14:44
I'm not suggesting any different. The way I see it is if IDP had no impact, then it wouldn't matter what IDPs were chosen as the dominating factor would be offense+dst. If that were true, then one might expect teams that took IDP early to be doing worse than the average as they would be taking the offense and IDP in later rounds. That would be an interesting thing to look at.
Right now the top 3 teams seem to have benefit from IDP scoring. That suggests their ability to choose IDP is pretty good, so it is not a knock on them at all.
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