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0 Subject: RIFC 2007: Draft recap

Posted by: Guru
- [330592710] Tue, Aug 28, 2007, 19:53

complete draft

RIFC Managers - You are each invited (although not required) to post your general reflections on the completed draft. Comments may be as detailed or as general as you wish. As a catalyst, free free to comment on any of the following:

1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?

2. What were your favorite picks? Which do you wish you could do over?

3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?

4. What surprised you most about the draft?

5. If you could start over, would you do anything differently?

Non-managers are also welcome to post general comments on the draft, and to raise questions.
1I_AM_CANADIAN
      Donor
      ID: 1361448
      Tue, Aug 28, 2007, 20:07
1. a) What was your plan/strategy entering the draft?
My main strategy before the draft was to take a good long at the rules. I know that most here already aware of the power of defense, and the benefits of having a player who also gets return yardage, but I felt I needed to make a more thorough look, not just at the players/teams that should perform well, but where they might fall to in the draft, and where I'd need to reach, so that I could best maximize my drafting value. This required quite a few mock drafts. I didn't run 100+ like I've heard of some people doing, but, I did a good half dozen, where I went through the picks relatively carefully, trying to follow the patterns of previous RIFC drafts. Here were a few of the guidelines that I was trying to following:
1) I needed 2 usable RBs in the first 4 rounds.
2) Draft the Ravens or the Bears at the beginning of the 5th round.
3) Grab only 1 IDP early, then wait for later value around the 11th+ rounds.
4) Draft a QB in either the 8th, 9th, or 10th rounds (I had specific QBs targets in each of those rounds).
5) If I didn't take Gates at 3.01, then wait till after the 10th round for value.
6) When drafting WRs try my best to get "extra value", for potential PR/KR work.
7) Finally, and maybe the one that I was most adamant about... DON'T FOLLOW RUNS!

1. b) Were you able to execute as you had planned?
This year, was by far the most successful draft I've had (IMHO of course). There were a few close calls: I was expecting to be able to grab B.Jacobs/C.Williams/T.Jones type RB at the end of the 2nd. This was a minor annoyance, as I felt, I'd end up with a Jamal Lewis type at the end of the 4th (he may end up ok, just not the type of risk I wanted to take). Also, since I didn't go RB-RB, I didn't feel I could take Gates at 3.01. I felt I should take 2 WRs instead. Next, I missed out on my targets QBs in the 8th, and 9th rounds, and almost thought I'd have to wait till the 14th for a Leftwitch type... luckily I got Cutler in under the wire (since Beezer took Favre). Finally, late in the draft I realized, I wasn't going to be able to draft 2TE's as I originally had planed.

2. a) What were your favorite picks?
Adrian Peterson - It was a great deal for me, cause I was able to get the player I wanted badly, plus was still able to get my target defense with the "downgraded" next round pick.
Baltimore Ravens - These guys just play nasty defense. They should be among the leaders of YDG/Points/Sacs…

2. b) Which do you wish you could do over?
I actually don't have any picks that I look back and say, that's a bad pick. I like them all, I find they each have there own values, but I have a few that I wonder, if I reached too soon on (would they be there 26picks later?). They are: Jennings/Welker/Randle El.

3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?
Greybear - Although she has a lot of "high risk" RBs, she has backed them up, with quite a few more "homerun" threats, so I don't think she'll be weak at at that position. Her team also, has a jump ahead on Team D, and found plenty of good value IDPs.
Beezer - Solid RB/WR/TE/IDP. I'm not sure how far the $ positions will bring him though. QB/DEF will need to exceed expectations to be a real contender though.
Guru - IF most of these guys stay healthy, then they'll be bringing there this team to the playoffs: McNabb, Glenn, Shockey, McGee, Spikes, Henderson, Curry.
Youngroman - Drafted mainly starters before focusing more on backups. Then targeted a fair bit of boon/bust back-ups. As long as this team is well managed during the regular season (fair bit of waiver movement required), then this team can be successful.

4. What surprised you most about the draft?
I think we once again saw an increase in the # of RBs drafted (especially early in the draft). There are almost as many RBs drafted as there are WRs.

5. If you could start over, would you do anything differently?
Very little actually. Hindsight being 20/20 of course, I'd probably want to move up in the 8th/9th round in order to get the #1 QBs I had targeted.
2leggestand
      ID: 557292718
      Tue, Aug 28, 2007, 22:01
What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?

At the 12 pick, I didn't have much of a plan and had to rely on what happened right around my picks. I assumed I would go RB-RB in the first two rounds as I had for 3 years, but as I thought while my pick 2.03 came up, I could not bring myself to pick from the RB's available. I was more horrified by what WR's would make it back to me instead of the RB's that would make it.

So, I decided to wait until Round 3 to get RB2. Now, the unfortunate thing about starting a draft so early is that some things haven't played out as you expected a week ago. Norwood is still one of my sleepers of the year, but Dunn looked a lot healthy yesterday than he did a couple weeks ago after back surgery. I still think Norwood will be a good pick during the season, but I certainly could of waited, or at least jumped on Dunn earlier for the handcuff.

Other than that, I targeted Brees since the beginning of the beginning of the draft and was glad to get him. I think I will be fine at QB, WR, TE, K, and D. My IDP's always seem to turn out fine as I pay alot of attention to them prior and during the draft. My only question mark is at RB. McGahee has had a poor preseason, and then I have three "potential" starters or "potential" backups. I need two of my 4 primary RB's to pan out, and, IMO, therein lies the fate of my season.

2. What were your favorite picks? Which do you wish you could do over?

Favorites: Drew Brees, Alex Smith, Chris Hope, Bob Sanders, and Owen Daniels

Do Overs: Norwood, Maybe even McGahee for as bad as he has looked this preseason.

3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?

This is a hard question, as just looking at starters, I like youngroman, Guru, holt, and Beezer.

But in terms of full teams with depth, I like s R, greybear, Smith32, and IAC.

I also know never to count out GoatLocker, as I am pretty sure he has been in the RIFC since its inception.

The league is very tough now, as everyone has come up the ranks through the RIFC leagues and proven their mettle in fantasy football. It should be a good season.

4. What surprised you most about the draft?

How people have started to figure out the values of IDP's. I think during the past two yerars, people still didn't value IDP's very well and weren't sure where and when to draft them. It seems as though they are valued "correctly" by all now.

5. If you could start over, would you do anything differently?

I may have made that trade with IAC to grab Deuce McAllister at 3.01. I saw lots of RB's falling to me at 3.12, which happened, but as I said, I thought the news on Dunn was more dire than what actually was occuring. But, if I would of traded with IAC, I wouldn't have gotten Brees, so, maybe I would of passed anyhow.

I don't know, the 12th pick was a tough spot. I felt like I overpaid on all of my top 3 picks, but if they perform as I expect, they will be of good value to me.

I may go into the season trade guns a blazing. I made 4-5 trades last season, and wouldn't be surprised if it happens again. I could be shopping Alex Smith and WR's a couple weeks in.
3The Beezer
      Dude
      ID: 191202817
      Wed, Aug 29, 2007, 00:41
Overall thoughts:

As always, a quick recap of the past:

In 2004, I felt great about nabbing Jeff Garcia as my starting QB.
In 2005, I was ecstatic that J.J. Arrington was still available in the 4th round.
In 2006, I thought taking Roddy White in the 14th round was a steal.

Despite all that, I won the RIFC this year and you're still reading this. Keep the above in mind as I go through all of this. And remember that you can't spell "rationale" without "lie" or "rant" (as Smith32 so eloquently showed regarding Eli).

1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?

Initial plan:

- take LT2 or Steven Jackson
- get another RB in round 2 or 3 before all the fairly clear starters vanished
- let the draft come to me and don't try to force anything
- once I made the decision to grab Gates, draft as many WRs as possible as value appears in the draft
- when in doubt, don't draft J.J. Arrington (hey, it worked last year)

If I would have managed to trade up in round 2 and grab Steve Smith, I would have begun secretly working on adapting the Chili Peppers' "Magic Johnson" to talk about this team. Alas, it didn't work out, so I was stuck with a bear of a choice at 2.13. I still stand by that pick and by taking Gates at 3.02 as I think getting Ward and Moss make a decent pair of WR2s to go with Gates, and taking 3 other receivers in the first 9 rounds should get me a decent WR3 somewhere (I hope).

I hated having to wait on QB so long, yet every time I went to pick, the guys I would have taken that round were already gone. This will be an area of focus going forward without a doubt. Waiting until round 11 to fill out IDPs was a risk but I was pleased with the value that I found there.

All in all, I'm not as happy with my team this year as I was last year. The more I play fantasy football in general, the more I'm convinced that the draft is overrated in how a season will turn out. A good draft can only lay the foundation for a championship run at best. I think I've got a good starting point and that's all I can ask.

2. What were your favorite picks? Which do you wish you could do over?

Getting Betts in the seventh was planned and I'm liking it the more I think about it. Portis' injury woes have him in a similar position to last year in my mind, and Betts has proven that he can produce when given the chance. D.J. Hackett, Omar Gaither, and Demetrius Williams all jumped out as excellent values at the spot they were taken.

I don't see any picks that look like wastes at this point. Even Jarrett could prove to be useful.

3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?

Of course, no team can be counted out after the draft, and no team is a lock to win it all, either. Here's a breakdown of how I see each of the teams. This is of course as they stand now and assuming adequate pickups for bye week coverage as needed - percentages are rough numbers at best and are not precise in any sense of the term. They are not FDIC insured, are not bank guaranteed, and may lose value - consult your fantasy football advisor for more information. I'll caution that last year I totally missed on just about every team, so you might prefer to actually be not that highly rated here.

I_AM_CANADIAN
Why they'll win - LT2/Wayne/Owens will win some weeks almost by themselves.
Why they won't - QBs might be even worse than mine. I'm not sold that Peterson will be that good this year due to the anemic Viking passing game. As you can guess from "rant"ionale from late in the draft, I don't think a D pick in the fifth is a good value, even for the Ravens.
Playoff chances - 80%

holt
Why they'll win - I really like the offensive starters on this team.
Why they won't - I don't like the IDPs on this team at all. If Lewis doesn't produce, I don't see anyone else picking up the slack.
Playoff chances - 50%

Smith32
Why they'll win - Addai and Smith are the best starting tandem of any team IMO. LB corp has the potential to dominate.
Why they won't - RB2 is an absolute mishmash if DeAngelo doesn't get the starter gig and produce. I don't like Romo or Eli in this format.
Playoff chances - 70%

Bags
Why they'll win - Palmer grades out as the #2 QB on my board, and Fletcher is the top LB on my sheet.
Why they won't - RB situation looks messy and the WRs don't thrill me.
Playoff chances - 30%

Goatlocker
Why they'll win - Westbrook and Jacobs are a good tandem and the IDPs should do well. A solid lineup throughout IMO.
Why they won't - I'm concerned about the RB situation with these guys, as Brandon Jackson is already dinged up and Jacobs is relatively unproven. That's usually a strength for GL so I'm curious to see how this will pan out.
Playoff chances - 75%

beastiemiked
Why they'll win - I think Young and Chad Johnson will have great seasons and outperform their draft slot.
Why they won't - LJ was a worthy pick at 1.7, but I'm concerned about last season's workload and the holdout. If anything happens to him, I don't think any other RBs on this squad can pick up the slack.
Playoff chances - 30%

Nerfherders
Why they'll win - RB duo is solid and Housh is a fine WR1. Hasselbeck was good value in the fifth.
Why they won't - I don't like the other WRs on this team and the RB depth is nonexistent.
Playoff chances - 35%

Greybear
Why they'll win - Good RB depth, especially if Portis plays 12 games or more. I think Walker is a top 10 receiver.
Why they won't - I'm not a fan of the QB situation or the other WRs. I'm down on Portis' health this season as reflected in my drafting Betts, and I expect Berrian to regress as reflected in my Muhammad pickup. See my IAC comment on picking a defense in the fifth round.
Playoff chances - 70%

Guru
Why they'll win - Great RB starters, I think McNabb was a steal at 4.05, and Ryans, Rhodes, and Suggs are top-2 at their positions.
Why they won't - No RB depth at all, and I don't like the receivers after Evans. Actually, I don't like Evans either, but it's more of a personal grudge thing. Let's not even talk about the backup QB here.
Playoff chances - 80%

youngroman
Why they'll win - I'm a big fan of Heap and the LB group on this team. Maroney was a steal at 1.11 if he gets the goal line carries.
Why they won't - I don't think James is an adequate RB2 and the backups definitely are not. The Driver injury really puts a damper on the WR scoring for this team and I don't think Bulger will be that great.
Playoff chances - 25%

leggestand
Why they'll win - I really like McGahee, Harrison, and Brees. IDPs are solid.
Why they won't - I don't see an RB2 that I like if Dunn is healthy. WRs after Harrison do not thrill me at all.
Playoff chances - 40%

Slackjawed Yokel
Why they'll win - I really like the first four picks, as Peyton, Jones-Drew, Colston, and Barber III all were fairly high on my board. TE position is a strength.
Why they won't - WR after Colston and the backup RB situation is bad. This has to be addressed for this team to win.
Playoff chances - 50%

s R
Why they'll win - Solid RB starters and Brady will be a top 3 QB. Lots of really good IDPs on this team.
Why they won't - I don't see any WRs on this team producing at a WR1 level. Like nearly every other team, RB depth is an issue.
Playoff chances - 45%

4. What surprised you most about the draft?

Not much. Like last year, I expected varied strategies, smart picks in all rounds, and a fast draft - all of which occurred. I was surprised to see so many defenses go off the board so early, as I felt last year was a clear demonstration of why taking defenses early doesn't usually work.

5. If you could start over, would you do anything differently?

I would probably have worked harder to trade up at certain points and get players I wanted that didn't fall. Barring that, I'm pleased with how everything worked out.
4Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Wed, Aug 29, 2007, 10:27
1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?
I figured I would probably start out RB-RB, but didn’t consider that essential. Last year, I did OK with horrid RBs (Cadillac, Droughns, Barlow). With 15 active slots, there are plenty of opportunities to overcome shortages at RB. Still, given that I knew RBs would disappear quickly, I figured I’d go with the flow to the extent that I could find good value.

With 6 IDPs to fill, I did want to get a few stalwarts, but was also willing to wait until late to fill those remaining starting slots.

2. What were your favorite picks? Which do you wish you could do over?

McNabb could be my most important player. Still, I wish I had stepped up and taken the Bears in Round #4 – in spite of all of the difficulties of predicting defensive performance. I think their schedule will ensure good production, and I liked their schedule during the playoff rounds. As Baltimore demonstrated last year, a strong defense can singlehandedly win a few games during the season.

Benson is still a worry. I stewed over that pick quite a bit, and his preseason action since that pick hasn’t done anything to make me feel better. I do have his two backups, but if the situation degrades into a RBBC, or if none of them shows any consistency (I’m thinking of the Cleveland and Jets RB situations last year), I may have a problem there.

And I doubt that the Carolina D will bail me out this year like the Ravens did last year.

3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)? I really haven’t studied the other teams much, but as we were going along, my sense was that IAC was looking strong. As I do a quick scan now, every team shows some strengths, and every team has some potential weaknesses. In a league with alert managers from top to bottom, that's the nature of the beast. And everyone in this league has had some success in this format.

4. What surprised you most about the draft? 2 defenses taken in round 5. I thought I could land the Bears in round 5 myself. Last year, the second defense wasn’t taken until round 8.

General comments:
There weren't many picks this year that had me raising my eyebrows. As someone else mentioned, it seems that IDPs are becoming better understood, and it seemed that most teams were following reasonable strategies with them.

I also agree that the draft is not necessarily the most important ingredient to a successful season. Good luck with injuries and astute free agent pickups are just as critical - maybe even moreso. I've had good success in this league so far, and I don't think I can ever point to the draft as the most important element. Occasionally, I've scored a bonanza in a later round - Larry Johnson in the 5th round two years ago, or the Balt D in round 8 last year - but in most cases, I don't even realize who those are until the season is well underway.

And I've learned over the years that "sleepers" are almost non-existent. If there is someone you hope to pick up in a late round, several other managers are undoubtedly looking at him as well, and those players invariably get taken earlier than forecast. If you see a player that you really want, be prepared to jump in a round or two (or more) early, or else be disappointed.
6Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Wed, Aug 29, 2007, 11:12
Another interesting factoid, alluded to several times during the draft:

Beezer has 2 players named "Williams".

Smith32 has a "Smith" (and also 3 "Williams" - watch out, Beezer!)

holt has a "Holt"

According to RotoWire, there are about a dozen Halls I could have picked, but skipped them all. Perhaps a blunder.
7Nerfherders
      ID: 501035289
      Wed, Aug 29, 2007, 12:10
1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?
My general plan every year is to go RB-RB-WR-QB in the first four rounds and then take best value after that. The plan was working until Guru took McNabb two spots before me, so I went with Randy Moss there and took the next best QB in the 5th round. After that, the draft went pretty smoothly. There were some players I would have liked to have but I wasn't ready to pick them when they were taken. I regret missing Leon Washington as a handcuff for Thomas, but he went way earlier than I would have expected.

2. What were your favorite picks? Which do you wish you could do over?

My favorite pick is probably Willie Parker, whom I think is going to flourish in Pittsburgh's new offensive scheme. I Like Houshmazilli too, but I found it a little odd feeling so good about taking a #2 WR in the 3rd round. My IDP's are all good and I have alot of depth there so I feel good about them. I think my biggest headache is my 7th round pick. There were still some decent RB's out there when I selected White and now I wonder if White will even be the starter. I hope that he becomes the starter by my first bye week, but if I sustain an injury before that I might be in trouble.

On the flip side, last year in AAA my #2 RB was Dominic Davis, who was still 'healthy' at the time of the pick, but of course didn't play a single snap. I think I started 7-1 in the first 4 weeks with a RB tandem of Chris Brown and Maurice Hicks in the #2 spot. Then I picked up Betts off of FA and rolled right through the playoffs. So anything can happen really. You can't predict this stuff.

3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?

Guru stands out to me because he took a few guys I had targeted from round to round, most notably McNabb. But really the draft just lays the framework for your team, and at best gets you through the first 5-6 weeks. Alot of things go into having a winning season and I would say the draft is probably 40% of it. The rest is a combination of waiver wire finds, favorable matchups, and luck.

4. What surprised you most about the draft?

I guess the biggest surprise was how smoothly and quickly the draft progressed. No hiccups, no long stops, almost nobody complaining about said hiccups or long stops. After the debacle that was the RIBC AA Eastern League draft, I wish I could play in the big leagues every year just to get a draft that ran as nicely as this one.

5. If you could start over, would you do anything differently?

As I said, I would probably change my 7th round pick. I might have also waited a round or two to pick up Jared Allen and Jeff Wilkins, but I really wanted both players. In the second half of the draft I don't think it matters much if you wait or not - the quality of players is so close that you're not going to have a huge advantage in picking someone else instead of the player you targeted.
8youngroman
      ID: 3751268
      Wed, Aug 29, 2007, 14:33
1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?
with picking my draft slot (#11) it was clear that people are usually picking RB-RB.
so my guidelines were:
a) go RB-RB, only take a WR if no RB is worth the 2nd pick
b) pick a QB, 3WR and the TE in rounds 3-7 to build up my offensive core
c) turn to IDP for the next few rounds and only take a RB or D if the value is good enough
d) build RB- and WR-depth with backups that are potential kick/punt returners
e) go to the draft-low, get-low pool and try to find the get-high guy of 2007
f) don't draft a kicker. he isn't worth it.

all points worked out pretty well. the reasoning behind this strategy (1st fill out the importent starting slots) is that somehow I am managing my teams well during the season, so I concentrated mainly on starters. the positions where I expect some value on waivers are WR and IDPs in general, so these were the positions were I built up either no bench (IDP) or some speculative picks (WR)

2. What were your favorite picks? Which do you wish you could do over?
I really like Bulger at 4.04 and Burleson at 17.11 but don't say that to them because then they think they are a lock on my team. I have to see no do-overs because that would ruin my team chemistry.

3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?
looking at all the teams I am thinking, what has happened. they all seem so well balanced. most have their strengths, all have their weaknesses. If I would change my team with someone it would be IAC's: LT, Wayne and TO. Fragile Fred and Foster as backup RB. Baltimore Defense, solid IDPs. I simply like that team. really weakness is only at QB if you don't count LT as a part-time QB.

4. What surprised you most about the draft?
that some were getting crazy in the 2nd round and kept drafting running backs. Guru surprised me twice with picking Cedric Benson in the 2nd and DeMarco Ryans in the 5th. Norwood at 3.12 was also a reach.
I also have to note that I have never heard of some players that were drafted at IDP. they showed up on some projection sources I used but they did not make it on my cheat sheet.

5. If you could start over, would you do anything differently?
because my draft plan worked I would not do much different. perhaps I should have picked the 6th draft position which would have landed me LJ, but who knows how the rest of my team would look like.

additional notes
it is not easy to draft players you are not able to watch. last year there was no way to get the NFL on TV here in Austria. I was limited to watching a 25 minutes highlight show on Friday Night. I still managed to reach the playoffs and kept my ticket for RIFC.
this year this will be all different. On Saturday US Sports Heaven (named NASN) is finally coming to Austria. I can now see a minimum of 5 games live and a few additional as-live per week. I hope that all this coverage helps to bring my managing skills to a new level.

be prepared for a short season. All the best to you, as long as the luck stays on my side.
9Greybear
      ID: 43710116
      Wed, Aug 29, 2007, 17:20
1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?

As crazy as it may seem, my plan was to not have a plan. By that, I mean that I did not want to become a slave to my script and become blind to some outstanding value that might still be available at my draft slot. That being said, I still went ahead and drafted RB-RB-WR-RB... as I thought I might. I did surprise myself in the later rounds.

I always struggle with trying to achieve a balance between filling up my starter spots while ensuring quality depth at key positions. So I basically did my best to study average draft picks, looked at my needs, and attempted to pick my players a few spots before I thought they would go. I believe I did a decent job at executing my non-plan.

2. What were your favorite picks? Which do you wish you could do over?

Favorites: Chicago Bears and Keith Bulluck: because it just feels good to select "studs", or I should say, projected studs. Picking from the 9th hole, you don't feel like you can do that much in the early rounds. I was feeling like I was getting safe-unspectacular picks, and I believe rounds 5 and 6 added some octane to my team. I also liked Dallas Clark in the 20th.

"Interesting" picks: It will be my first year attempting a QBBC, I may like it, or it may drive me mad... stay tuned.

Do-overs: I am not sure about Ahman Green or Jerry Porter. I could have done something different with my fourth round, like go for Randy Moss and wait until the 5th to pick up either Green or Bell. I know that Tatum would have gotten back to me. Jerry Porter, well, who knows: I haven't liked him much in the pre-season.

3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?

I find that there are plenty of solid, well-rounded teams: Notably, Holt's and Leggy's, where I just like the team as a whole.

I also can't really argue with Beezer's choices as I had my eye on the following players, which he grabbed before I could: Ward, S. Moss, Gostkowski, Washington DEF and Will Smith. Well done!

Yokels: You can't discount a team that has Peyton Manning and those LBs.


As far as whose team I would like to steal (meaning that it's my favorite except for my own), that's I_A_C's for sure. The Defensive side is extremely solid, and it's got plenty of razzle-dazzle, especially if AP works out. The only apparent weekness I see is the QB position. BTW, no need to question your Jennings pick, I was taking him before he would have gotten back to you.

I don't have the time, nor the analytical prowess (that's directed at you, Beezer... wow! just, wow!), to comment on each of your teams. I will say that they all have strenghts, that nobody seemed like they were "phoning it in", and that I think that each and every week will be a challenge.

4. What surprised you most about the draft?

Skill. This is not the AA anymore. Etiquette was also at an all-time high. Nice to see.

5. If you could start over, would you do anything differently?

I already discussed this a bit with my least favorite picks. I feel a bit weak at WR and wish that I could have beefed up my skill players a bit more. Only time will tell if I made a good decision with my RBs as I think I have huge potential there if they are all healthy. In which case, I may be able to hang for sale signs on a few of them and improve my team for the playoffs (hopefully). So I can't really answer this question until week 12!

From now on, it's no longer about what we did, but what we'll do in adjusting to emerging or dissapointing players: there is no time for regret!

I wish you all a great season. Thank you for the opportunity, and I hope I will not dissapoint.
10Slackjawed Yokel
      Leader
      ID: 052347519
      Thu, Aug 30, 2007, 01:06
1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?

Well, it seems reading others' summaries, that I was just woefully unprepared. I didn't treat this much different than I have baseball or hoops (both of which I've made it to the 'majors' only to drop out - which may not bode well for my football chances). I ranked the top 50 or so players, and then I play it by ear. Unless there is a sleeper I really want, I pretty much sit in reactive mode, but get on board early in runs - TE, LB, K(?), etc. Also, picking on the end, it's futile to put together a queue more than 3-4 picks before your selection.

So, not really having a steadfast plan, it was easy to stick to it. Of course, once I picked Manning in the first round, I was starting behind as far as top rb's/wr's were concerned. So that rather influenced the rest of my draft.

Now that you guys mention it, it would have been nice to target who I might want in particular rounds - I may try doing that in an upcoming draft.

2. What were your favorite picks? Which do you wish you could do over?

I am happy with the Manning pick. I haven't been able to own him in a non-keeper league the past several years, as he has been off the table so soon. But when I was stuck with the 13th pick, I decided to get him if he was still there. He looked very solid this preseason - almost perfect against the Lions. I look for the Colts to do a lot of damage in the air this year - even Addai is sometimes more dangerous as a receiver out of the backfield.

I also like my pairing of two top tight ends - Gonzalez and Winslow. If Winslow is healthy, I should be able to live with my lack of WR depth.

Although I'm not enamored with my RB's, I wouldn't necessarily change my selections here. Jones-Drew and Marion Barber both have potential to be breakout performers or simply adequate. But it seemed by picking at the end, there was always a need I had to fill.

3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?

To echo everyone else, you can't put a team together in a league this deep without question marks or weaknesses. Not to mention our rosters are so huge - I find myself when evaluating others' teams to look at the first 6-10 picks, where it's really the depth that counts. In doing so, though I really like the core that multiple managers were able to put together including: IAC, guru, greybear, nerfherders, bmd, and goatlocker (crap, that's about half the league and most of the playoff teams).

4. What surprised you most about the draft?

Every couple of rounds or so, I'd check the draft grid to see where the other teams stood (actually, every round in the beginning, as with only sR picking after me, I could usually get both of my two options). I remember being really surprised at one point - must've been the 9th round, when I saw Beezer already had 5 WR (and 3 RB). Guru picking DeMeco Ryans in the 5th was a bit of a surprise too - but it did confirm that my planned pick of Ryans as the #1 pick in the G24 IDP draft was a good one.

5. If you could start over, would you do anything differently?

Embarrassingly, I would double-check the rules. Somehow, it wasn't until the 11th round or so when I realized we had added two IDP starters. Somehow, I remembered the added TE flex, but forgot this. Oh well, at least I realized in time and learned a lesson in the process.... and that lesson was never trust a junkie.
11GoatLocker
      Sustainer
      ID: 060151121
      Thu, Aug 30, 2007, 16:21
1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?

I always go into this draft with a fairly good feel of what I think I want to do. And as a rule of thumb I generally manage to stay fairly close to it.

Now this time around, I changed from my usual strategy.
Instead of going RB, RB, RB I planned from the beginning to go RB, RB, WR, WR, and then assess whether to take a QB or another WR.

After looking at the flow of the draft going into round 5, and the QBs still required at the front end of the draft group and the fact that the back end all but one had QBs, I knew I could take a WR in the 5th and still get a QB from the 2nd tier in the 6th round.

I had promised myself I would start on IDP earlier than normal, and still feel comfortable that it didn't necessarily hurt me.

Each round I compared who was available and looked at who was in that list that I expected to out perform what I had projected for them.

I managed to follow this all the way through the draft as I usually do. If I'm right in my thought process, I should be in pretty good shape this season.

2. What were your favorite picks? Which do you wish you could do over?

I know I shocked everybody when I took Westbrook with the 6th pick in the first round and passed on LJ, but I really do see him outperforming my projections for him.

I also like the Boldin and Kitna picks in the rounds I got them in.

Really started questioning myself as soon as I had picked McMichael, but only time will tell.
Drew Carter falls into the same category, that as soon as I did it I questioned it.

3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?

As others have already said, this is a really tough question to answer with all of the variables.

I really want to like IAC's team, but just think his whole season relies on Adrian Peterson and Jay Cutler.

I like Bags balance and think he should be in great shape.
Greybears season success will be driven by what happens at the #2 RB slot and with her starting QB.
As always, Guru's team looks tough on paper. Some question marks as every team has, but like the balance between reward / risk.
I know to never count out Young Roman or leggestand.

4. What surprised you most about the draft?

Not a thing.
After drafting in this league for 4 years, I just find it impossible to be surprised.

If you really want a player, you better be ready to take him 1 / 2 rounds before where you think he will go.
Because, if you don't, he won't be there later.
Just the way it is with this many outstanding managers.

5. If you could start over, would you do anything differently?

Probably not, unless it would be to go RB, RB, RB..........
And for those that aren't aware, that is how I normally draft.
12Smith32
      Sustainer
      ID: 139592519
      Thu, Aug 30, 2007, 19:07
1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned? Last year I won my AAA league having drafted LaMont Jordan and Warrick Dunn in the first 2 rounds and waited until Rd 13 to draft a three-headed QB monster. So I decided that I wouldn't pass up value at other positions to reach for a QB or an RB. I also wanted to get 2-3 of the top tier LBs, since I think their consistency really helps and can be a difference maker. I think I did ok on the execution - lots of solid but unspectacular picks.

2. What were your favorite picks? Which do you wish you could do over?

Favorite - Addai (I feel confident he was the right pick at 4), Steve Smith, Cotchery in Rd 7, Umenyiora in Rd 17.

Do Overs - Carson Palmer instead of Roy Williams in Rd 3. Posluszny in Rd 12 instead of Gibril Wilson.

3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?

Definitely IAC. If Tomlinson plays to just 90% of his potential, the advantage he gives a fantasy team is just too much to overcome in a league that is otherwise well-balanced, like this one is. I don't think bmd's squad is getting enough respect in these recaps - he had a strong draft from the 7 slot.

4. What surprised you most about the draft? How predictable the draft was. I felt like we must all have been using the same sources for our cheatsheets / projections.

5. If you could start over, would you do anything differently? Again, take Palmer in Rd 3 so I don't have to deal with this Romo/Eli nightmare every week. I probably should have drafted a fourth RB sooner, notably D. Foster.
13beastiemiked
      ID: 65112917
      Fri, Aug 31, 2007, 16:37
What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?


I've always followed the 2 RB's in the 1st 2 rounds trend but decided with the 7th pick that wasn't optimal if one of the top 3 WR's were still around. RB-WR-RB was what I initially wanted and I'm glad I didn't wuss out and go RB-RB-WR. Round 4 is when I was targeting a QB. Any of the top guys would've suited me fine but I'm glad Young slipped to me After that my strategy was to pick some "low variance" guys. I think I did a decent job doing that.


2. What were your favorite picks? Which do you wish you could do over?

Young and Clayton in rounds 4 and 5 are probably my favorite. I liked getting LJ in round 1. Crayton in round 12 was nice as well.

I can't believe I picked Bruce over Dunn in round 10. A brain fart as I thought Dunn was gone already. AJ Hawk in round 7 was bad. Wish I would've picked Alex Smith over Mcnair.

3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?


IAC's just because has LT. Other than that no team really sticks out as a frontrunner.

What surprised you most about the draft?

The speed of the thing. Pretty sure we should call Guinness about possibly the fastest slow draft ever.

5. If you could start over, would you do anything differently?

Probably hold off on picking up a linebacker in round 7 and instead go for some RB depth.





14I_AM_CANADIAN
      Donor
      ID: 1361448
      Mon, Sep 03, 2007, 16:59
I noticed in another league, that one of the managers used the information from the consolidated draft analysis thread for his recap. I decided I'd add mine as well, in order to back up some of my draft recap thoughts. (see table in next post)

I know the small sample size of our leagues (4 total), certainly doesn't make this nearly as scientific as ADP, but I thought I'd give it a look anyways.

First of all, as I had thought; In the drafting of my WR3-5, I ended up "overpaying" slightly, in comparison to other league managers. This isn't a major worry for me, I was just wondering how badly I had overpayed for those WRs that I really wanted. Looking at the avg of where they went, they probably wouldn't have made it back to me. So I think I made the right choice.

Next, as most people say, the draft itself, isn't won or lost in the first few rounds, it's the "value" you get during the middle rounds that can sometimes make the biggest difference. For me, rounds 16-18 is where I managed to draft the most value.

Also, although as some people would point out, that my QBs aren't of "Elite" level, the choice of holding off on them, allowed me that luxioury of getting them much later, and much cheaper than they went in other leagues.
17Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Mon, Sep 03, 2007, 18:06
Here is I_A_C's table, without screwing up the thread format

 name   pos   avg   min   max  RIFC Difference
 LaDainian Tomlinson  RB  1.01 1.01 1.01 1.01 0
 Reggie Wayne   WR  2.12 2.09 3.02 2.14 2
 Terrell Owens   WR  2.14 2.12 3.03 3.01 1
 Adrian Peterson (MIN)   RB  3.13 3.08 4.1 4.1 11
 Baltimore Ravens   DEF  4.1 3.02 5.11 5.05 9
 Fred Taylor   RB  6.05 5.05 6.14 6.14 9
 Brian Urlacher   LB  7.06 6.14 8.03 7.01 -5
 Greg Jennings   WR  10.03 8.11 12.11 8.14 -18
 DeShaun Foster   RB  7.07 4.06 9.12 9.01 22
 Jay Cutler   QB  8.14 6.03 10.14 10.14 28
 Wes Welker   WR  12.11 11.01 15.03 11.01 -24
 Ernie Sims   LB  13.1 11.03 17.07 12.14 -10
 Patrick Willis   LB  14.11 13.01 16.07 13.01 -24
 Heath Miller   TE  14.14 12.07 16.08 14.14 0
 Brian Dawkins   DB  14.14 13.06 16.05 15.01 1
 Jacksonville Jaguars   DEF  13.02 9.13 16.14 16.14 54
 Rex Grossman   QB  14.04 11.12 17.01 17.01 43
 Chad Greenway   LB  16.06 10.1 18.14 18.14 36
 Antwaan Randle El   WR  19.09 17.05 23.11 19.01 -8
 LaRon Landry   DB  20.06 18.12 22.08 20.14 8
 Thomas Howard   LB  21.13 16.11 21.01 21.01 -12
 Matt Stover   K  21.1 19.1 22.14 22.14 18
 Kyle Vanden Bosch   DL  23.14 22.13 23.01 23.01 -13
 John Abraham   DL  23.01 21.01 24.14 24.14 27
Total Saved Value           155
Saved Value per Pick           6.46
19holt
      ID: 587112719
      Tue, Sep 04, 2007, 05:49
1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?

Early on, I like to go after best value available. I don't just shout DAMN THE TORPEDOES and go RB RB. Just depends on who is available. Middle rounds I planned to continue taking offensive players and ignore IDP's to an extent. Theory being, there are always FA IDP's to be had, and very rarely are there offensive players available who can really have any impact.

Another element of my strategy is just having as much information as possible. Being aware of rookies and what their perceived value is, and also being aware of potential injury issues and position battles with the vets.

I followed my strategies as closely as I could. Unfortunately there was no mention of possible problems with Holt's knee until well after I drafted him. Hope it's not a major problem. I also didn't plan around some of the rookie picks as well as I could have (Peterson, Ginn for example).

2. What were your favorite picks? Which do you wish you could do over?

I think Jamal Lewis 4.12, Chester Taylor 8.12, and Warrick Dunn 10.12 were all good values and make me feel more secure than usual at RB. None are awesome but I got my fair share of starting RB's.

I really like getting Phillip Rivers at 6.12. He was the last QB available that I could feel good about, and I got him as late as I could imagine getting him.

I like the upside of Calvin Johnson and Vernon Davis at 5.03 and 7.03. If they perform to their abilities then they are excellent values and give my team a big advantage.

Picks I wish I could do over... Definitely Holt. I still think he'll have a good year, but had I known there was any issue at all with his knee then I would have gone with someone else, like Reggie Wayne maybe. Also, I think I should have held off on IDP's a bit longer and gone with another WR in the 11th rd. I could have had Ginn instead of Polamalu.

3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?

This question is always tricky. I'm not going to make a statement on who I think will win or who will make the playoffs, because the draft on its own doesn't take into account luck, injuries, waiver signings throughout the season, etc. I'll just go through and try to pick the teams who I think most closely reflect my personal player biases and what I like to see in a team.

Goatlocker's team looks alright. I like Kitna. Westbrook, Jacobs, and Jackson are a solid RB base to work from. Boldin, Burress, and Coles are all solid. IDP's look decent enough.

IAC has Tomlinson and follows it up with Wayne and Owens so there is definitely some potential of big points there.

I can't really give any other teams a shiny gold stamp of approval mostly because of serious RB issues and/or weak WR corps. I know you can win this league without having a strong RB+WR corps, but it's not my preferred method and I think it's a risky way to go (not to mention stressful).


4. What surprised you most about the draft?

Nothing really. I guess the fact that there wasn't much of a fight over marginal RB's, and there was a fight over marginal IDP's.

5. If you could start over, would you do anything differently?

I think I've already covered those things. Taking Holt instead of Wayne, Polamalu instead of Ginn. Oh yeah - I wanted Adrian Peterson, but I dunno if there's much I could do about that. In the end, Lewis should score more points than him anyway. C.Taylor too for that matter. But who knows?
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