| 0 |
Subject: Playoffs
Posted by: wiggs
- Sustainer [04991311] Mon, Dec 15, 2008, 13:46
If Dallas wins out and the Giants lose out could Dallas win the East?
They would both be 11-5 overall, 4-2 division and 8-4 conference- What is the next tie breaker? |
| Only the 50 most recent replies are currently shown. Click on this text to display hidden posts as well. |
| 29 | steve houpt
ID: 451161019
Wed, Dec 31, 2008, 00:57
|
Judy - here is a rough of how [and too much free time in the winter is WHY]. What's it good for? Would not put any of my money on the line based on it.
About 8 years ago I made a spread sheet that after you put in a team’s rating you have determined [usually use a combo of Sagarin and Massey], home field advantage, it determines probability of a win based on spread. I used other studies I found on the net that showed what each point in strength [favored] meant and from studies it calculates the ‘probability of a win‘.
Once it was built [not sure I could do it again - or have the patience - or even remember all the calc‘s], just put in numbers each year. And after each game, you manually make the winner a “100%” probability and it recalculates the rest of the playoffs.
Favored By __ [my] Probability
40 _______99.2
30 _______98.1
20 _______94.3
15 _______89.3
10 _______80.3
9 _______78
8 _______75.5
7 _______72.8
6 _______69.9
5 _______66.8
4 _______63.6
3 _______60.3
2 _______56.9
1 _______53.8
0.5 _______51.7
0 _______50
But from that [lets just do AFC] - WEEK TWO
39.99% probability of BAL @ TEN and IND @ PIT
23.87% probability of BAL @ TEN and SDG @ PIT
22.63% probability of IND @ TEN and MIA @ PIT
13.51% probability of SDG @ TEN and MIA @ PIT
Then the probability of each of those probabilities leaves you with this for the AFC Championship Game.
PIT @ TEN ____ 49.54%
BAL @ PIT ____ 16.97%
IND @ TEN ____ 8.93%
IND @ PIT ____ 6.94%
BAL @ IND ____ 5.36%
MIA @ TEN ____ 4.16%
SDG @ TEN ____ 2.70%
SDG @ PIT ____ 2.08%
BAL @ SDG ____ 1.62%
IND @ MIA ____ 1.25%
SDG @ MIA ____ 0.45%
1-5 seeds chance of 'HOME' AFC Championship Game.
Game @ TEN ____ 65.33%
Game @ PIT ____ 25.99%
Game @ IND ____ 5.36%
Game @ MIA ____ 1.70%
Game @ SDG ____ 1.62%
|
| 30 | Nerfherders
ID: 310111515
Wed, Dec 31, 2008, 03:35
|
I am still in shock that both the Dolphins and Eagles made the playoffs. All the ups and downs this season have paid off! I feel like I am playing with house money now.
My predictions:
Eagles 24, Vikings 14. Eagles match up well with the Vikes and will create turnovers against Jackson.
Dolphins 17, Ravens 16. The best game of the first round. Gotta go with my heart on this one. The Dolphins D finds a way to stop the Ravens and they dont play into the Ravens hands by turning the ball over.
Falcons 31, Cardinals 17. Falcons are all over this game. The running of ATL is just too strong.
Colts 27, Chargers 21. The Chargers run ends here, sadly. I'm just glad they knocked off the Broncos!
Round 2
Steelers 23, Dolphins 13. Steelers are too much for the 'phins at home. Still, a great season for my fish.
Colts 24, Titans 17. The Titans weaknesses will be exposed again in a matchup of division rivals.
Eagles 21, Giants 13. The Eagles can play with anyone, and they prove it with a strong performance agains the G-men.
Panthers 28, Falcons 24. Gotta take the Panthers at home - they never lose there.
Round 3
Steelers 22, Colts 20. Close game but the home field is the difference.
Panthers 30, Eagles 17. The Eagles miracle ride ends - they can only seem to muster three good games in a row.
Super Bowl
Panthers 24, Steelers 21. Two teams very much alike. Good running combo, decent QB, WR. Good defenses. So it'll be close.
|
| 31 | Toral
ID: 575542418
Wed, Dec 31, 2008, 05:54
|
Here's a Point Spread to Money Line Converter I found on the Net. Looked for one to help with Guru's Football Pickoff. I now lose much more efficiently and systematically than before.
|
| 32 | J
Leader
ID: 049346417
Wed, Dec 31, 2008, 09:48
|
Here's my worthless playoff predictions:
Ravens over Dolphins
Colts over Chargers
Vikings over Eagles (does everyone forget the Eagles-Redskins game THAT quickly?)
Cardinals over Falcons
Week 2
Titans over Ravens
Colts over Steelers
Giants over Cardinals
Panthers over Vikings
Elis over Peytons in Super Bowl
|
| 33 | leggestand
Leader
ID: 451036518
Wed, Dec 31, 2008, 12:19
|
Wild Card Round:
Ravens over Dolphins - Baltimore's defense is too strong, and the Dolphins were pretty easily handled by the Ravens earlier this year in Miami.
Vikings over Eagles - Eagles played a great game last week, which has everyone talking, but before that, they lost to the Redskins and were a fairly mediocre team all year.
Chargers over Colts - I hate when teams only play their starters for one series in week 17, as I think it makes them come out slow in the wild card game.
Cardinals over Falcons - Warner's experience and the Cards being at home is the difference.
Divisional Round:
Titans over Ravens - Flacco's youth is served, and the Titans win a low scoring game.
Steelers over Chargers - Weather and cross country trip doom the warm weather Chargers. Steelers should of beaten San Diego handily earlier this year and shouldn't underestimate them in the playoffs.
Giants over Cardinals - Blowout. Cards have stunk all year (a) on the road and (b) on the east coast (see: New England, New York Jets, Redskins, Philly)
Panthers over Vikings - The only reason the Vikes are here is because they played the Eagles at home. Playing Carolina is tough, as evidenced by their 8-0 home record.
Championship Round:
Titans over Steelers - The Steelers offensive line will get dominated, sending the Titans and Kerry Collins to the Super Bowl.
Panthers over Giants - A rematch of a great game played in Week 16, and the Panthers will get their revenge in an upset.
Super Bowl:
Panthers over Titans - Carolina has too much experience and will bring home the trophy with their balanced rushing and passing attack.
***Disclaimer: Although the above will likely be 100% accurate, if for some reason the Colts get by the Chargers, I think they will make the Super Bowl. The Colts matchup great with Pittsburgh, Tennessee, and Baltimore, and they just tough luck in running into the Chargers in the Wild Card Round.***
|
| 34 | blue hen
Dude
ID: 710321114
Fri, Jan 02, 2009, 10:32
|
The Cardinals can't sell out a playoff game. Pitiful.
|
| 35 | Donkey Hunter
Leader
ID: 916288962
Fri, Jan 02, 2009, 10:36
|
According to this the Vikings had twice as many tickets remaining as the Cardinals.
|
| 36 | Seward Norse
ID: 58082219
Fri, Jan 02, 2009, 16:49
|
Nobody in Minnesota trusts the Vikings/Tavarais/Childress.
|
| 37 | judy
Leader
ID: 7771722
Fri, Jan 02, 2009, 20:43
|
RE: #23
Hmm - with Gates and LT banged up, I might need to replace SD with INDY (all the way through).
|
| 38 | I_AM_CANADIAN
ID: 466141317
Sat, Jan 03, 2009, 23:34
|
RAGE!!! They cut the feed to the Colts/Chargers game here just into the OT. What the heck is with that?!
|
| 39 | I_AM_CANADIAN
ID: 466141317
Sat, Jan 03, 2009, 23:36
|
and... within a few minutes of the cut... it's over, Sproles goes for the TD rush of 22 yds according to NFL.com.
|
| 40 | Pancho Villa
ID: 51546319
Sat, Jan 03, 2009, 23:36
|
LaDainian who?
|
| 41 | Electroman
ID: 47928246
Sat, Jan 03, 2009, 23:39
|
What a game. Colts achilles heal was they couldn't run the ball, and it bit them in the butt. The Chargers could be dangerous. I would love to see LT able to get healthy.
|
| 42 | judy
ID: 487162821
Sun, Jan 04, 2009, 14:34
|
I love watching Sproles' feet move -- they are so quick. I remember his returns when
he was at K State. SD does not lose much when he is in the lineup.
I felt for Ryan -- that handoff/fumble was the killer difference in the game.
|
| 43 | Electroman
ID: 47928246
Sun, Jan 04, 2009, 22:15
|
Funny, even though you look at the Eagles this week, and maybe don't think of them as high as after last weeks game, I think that it is easily explained. For one, Childress knows the Eagles well, even if he has been gone for a few years. So he could run practice knowing what to expect on offense. And last week, they faced a similar D in the Giants, so that prepared them. The D was still very effective. They pretty much shut down the Vikings in the second half. And the offense were able to move the ball twice after being pinned deep. Really looking forward to this weekend. I think that the Eagles have to come out aggresive on both sides of the ball. Giants have basically been off for two weeks, they were pulled in the last game of the season. They could be rusty, and vulnerable for the first quarter.
|
| 44 | judy
Leader
ID: 7771722
Sun, Jan 04, 2009, 22:48
|
I was a little nervous when we only got FG in the first half. With lots of time left (3-4 min), the
announcers kept wrapping it up and all I could think was that is it not over for Philly "until the fat lady
sings."
I think it was a well managed game, with the exception of the McNabb F and the INT was kinda
useless, but did not hurt us when it came. Westie, again, was awesome, but they need to design more
plays for Buck other than run blocking which both he and Westie did very well in overall. Mcnabb was
efficient and the WR (esp Avant) and TE did well. I think our D can rattle Manning and we can out run
their D with slants and screens. Akers and Rocca were important as well.
|
| 45 | Boxman
ID: 337352111
Mon, Jan 05, 2009, 12:34
|
This is more of a vent than anything else.
I took Indy -1 and the money line (-170) on Philly because I wasn't sure they would cover the 3 points (I bet before the final line of 3.5)
I'm going to draft Sproles with my first round pick this year and then immediately cut him following the draft just to have some revenge. :)
|
| 46 | Nerfherders
ID: 347242717
Mon, Jan 05, 2009, 12:58
|
I'm glad I am not in the business of picking teams. yeesh. At least the Eagles won!
The Miami game was just terrible. I don't know what to say about it other than eventually law of averages wins out - with regards to turnovers this time.
|
| 47 | judy
Leader
ID: 7771722
Mon, Jan 05, 2009, 14:18
|
RE: #23
ATL > AZ -- Lack of a running game kills the Cards; ATL def good enough to stop AZ pass game.
SD > IND -- SD is HOT right now on all cylinders; no LT? no problem, use Sproles. No INDY run
hurts them. SD def good enough to stop Peyton.
EAGLES >MINN -- Eagles defense is too good here, offense just needs to be fine.
BALT > FINS -- this one could be close -- will depend upon both QB plays and Ed Reed on defense
(wow what a few weeks he has had!).
WOW! With the exception of the ATL/AZ game where AZ found a running game and a tough F/TD killed
the Falcons, I did OK -- even with my analysis!
|
| 48 | judy
Leader
ID: 7771722
Mon, Jan 05, 2009, 14:24
|
Gotta change the semis due to ATL/AZ (changes/additions in italics)
CONFERENCE SEMIS:
SD > PIT -- SD remains hot; PGH is struggling on Offense; defense will cave to SD all round attack.
EAGLES > NYG -- We did it once and will do it again -- too many Jints injuries now and no
Plaxico (phew).
CAR over AZ -- CAR RB and Smith rule the day; CAR def will stop AZ, esp with Boldin out
BALT > TITANS -- defense wins this one; low scoring affair
|
| 49 | sarge33rd
ID: 4307513
Mon, Jan 05, 2009, 15:56
|
re post 23 above:
BALT > FINS -- this one could be close -- will depend upon both QB plays and Ed Reed on defense
What numbers should I be playing in this weeks lotto?
|
| 50 | DWetzel
ID: 278201415
Mon, Jan 05, 2009, 16:16
|
Meh. NFC good, AFC bad.
I'll take all the home teams this round. There's a reason they were each playing for home field in week 15.
|
| 51 | steve houpt
ID: 451161019
Mon, Jan 05, 2009, 19:56
|
Sometimes the seeds [division champs ranked ahead of wild card] yield 'not so fair' results.
Tennessee's reward for being the number #1 seed is to play [12-5] wild card BAL. Pittsburgh's penalty for #2 seed is [9-8] division champ SDG.
And even though their records are only a half game apart, it's hard to think of #4 seed ARZ as a tougher opponent than #6 seed PHL. Arizona was 3-7 when they were not playing NFC West teams.
The rubber hits the road if both #1 and #2's survive this week and #1's get home field advantage against #2 - but the seeding is not much help this week getting to the CONF Championship.
In fact the way the teams advanced has 'now' made PIT my favorite to win the Super Bowl.
PITT ___ 24%
NYG ___ 22%
TEN ___ 19%
CAR ___ 13%
BAL ___ 11%
PHL ____ 7%
SDG ____ 2%
ARZ ____ 2%
|
| 52 | Slizz
ID: 4710371415
Fri, Jan 09, 2009, 16:54
|
I gotta go with the Ravens vs the Panthers in the superbowl. At first glance, I said Ravens / Eagles...but I don't think Andy Reid cant put together a solid game plan 4 games, let alone 5 (if they even make it that far) in a row. Judy will definitely attest to that. I do think the eagles advance this weekend, but thats only b/c of the Plaxico factor. Eagles had to double team him 80% of the time when he was there and without him, they can bring that extra guy in the box (Dawkins) to slow down Brandon Jacobs. Also, the Giants have ZERO sacks of Donovan McNabb during their two meetings this season. If the Jints can some how get pressure on McNabb, that could tilt things the Giants way. No need to comment on Cardinals / Panthers. I am going off the top of my head here...but the Cardinals are 0-5 or whatever on the east coast. Don't expect that to change this weekend. San Diego was dominated vs the Steelers by nearly 300 total yards, and if it wasnt for 100+ yards in penalties the Steelers had to San Diego's 5, the margin would've been even wider than 11-10. Expect the Steelers to take care of business and advance to the AFC Championship. Titans / Ravens. I've already tipped my hand who i am going with here, but I've liked the Ravens since they got in the playoffs...and their biggest hurdle (Colts) is out of the way. While I like Tennessee as a smashmouth type team...I just love the Ravens defense. They are awesome at all three levels (defensive line, linebackers, secondary) and control the trenches on both sides of the ball... Also, they have also special teams: one of the NFL's most accurate kickers, another kicker who leads the league in touchbacks/is among the league leaders in kickoffs, #5 punter in net punt average. I just think its going to be on Kerry Collins to pick apart that defense...and I don't see it happening.
|
| 53 | Electroman
ID: 47928246
Sat, Jan 10, 2009, 20:00
|
Well, another game that the officials come into question. Last week, it was sour grapes, but this week the Titans have a beef. But they lost that game because of the turnovers.
|
| 54 | judy
Leader
ID: 7771722
Sat, Jan 10, 2009, 23:10
|
With 6 min left in the AZ > CAR game, did I count a total of 11 turnovers in two games today?
Unreal!
Makes you wonder what tomorrow will bring, esp with Eagles, NYG and PGH defenses...
GO EAGLES!!!!
|
| 55 | Electroman
ID: 47928246
Sat, Jan 10, 2009, 23:32
|
I actually picked the Panthers to win the SB, but it was more on reputation because I didn't really see them play. I thought they were supposed to be good. Delhomme really stunk out the joint. Battle of the Birds next week? Another in the Super Bowl?
|
| 56 | Seattle Zen
ID: 1505110
Sun, Jan 11, 2009, 01:05
|
Would a Arizona Cardinals Super Bowl win be even bigger, more improbable than a Cubs World Series title?
|
| 57 | Slizz
ID: 4208421
Sun, Jan 11, 2009, 11:39
|
Jesus...the Cardinals and Conference Championship in the same sentence. What a weird year. Answer me this: If the Cardinals somehow advance to the super bowl...does this make Kurt Warner, 2 time MVP, a Hall of Famer?
|
| 58 | TB
ID: 9116716
Sun, Jan 11, 2009, 12:20
|
That's a good question. I think he needs to add some more career stats, but he's not that far away from consideration. http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/W/WarnKu00.htm
His passing yards a game, completion percentage, and career passer rating are all solid. IMO,, he needs to move up the rankings for total yards/td's.
|
| 59 | youngroman
Donor
ID: 02934823
Sun, Jan 11, 2009, 13:16
|
if I compare him to Troy Aikman, the last QB-inductee, I don't see much difference. Warner has already more TDs and less INTs with a few less yards. Aikman was never league MVP. the only thing where Aikman is better is postseason success. that could look different in 3 weeks.
|
| 60 | Pancho Villa
ID: 51546319
Sun, Jan 11, 2009, 16:12
|
I think the Cards being at home, coupled with their performance the past two weeks makes handicapping the spread next week really challenging.
I'm going to say Philly by 1.
|
| 61 | judy
ID: 597401015
Sun, Jan 11, 2009, 16:26
|
BELIEVE!!!!
GO EAGLES!!!
|
| 62 | Electroman
ID: 47928246
Sun, Jan 11, 2009, 16:26
|
Wow, what a year. Is this the first time that two teams who didn't win 10 games meet in the championship game?
|
| 63 | Mike D
Leader
ID: 041831612
Sun, Jan 11, 2009, 16:37
|
I'm still in shock. Philly in the final 4. Amazing, and awesome.
|
| 64 | Nerfherders
ID: 310111515
Sun, Jan 11, 2009, 16:49
|
I called it, but it's still unbelievable. Eagles in the NFC Championship! 5th time in 8 years.
Arizona is even more unbelievable. Did anyone pick them to win even a single playoff game? They were stinking it up for over a month. Phoenix is a tough place to play, so it's hard to figure how it will play out. You can't look at the Thanksgiving game to handicap it because the Cards are a different team at home.
|
| 65 | walk
ID: 139332920
Sun, Jan 11, 2009, 18:31
|
Fcuking Eli Manning. What a turnaround from earlier in the season and last year's playoffs. He just did not make the plays like McNabb did. Both defenses were superb, and my NYG running game was better, but ou have to be able to convert on a 3rd down once in a while, and have to stretch the D, too...I don't care if we don't have Plax, Manning has to figure out another way, but he could not. Eagles were the better team.
|
| 66 | walk
ID: 139332920
Sun, Jan 11, 2009, 18:37
|
Eli
He won us a super bowl last year, but this excellent blogger on the NYG hits it on the head with his analysis. The NYG did not do much to win this game.
|
| 67 | Electroman
ID: 47928246
Sun, Jan 11, 2009, 19:08
|
This guy is wrong in saying that the Giants lost the game. That is more sour grapes. The Eagles weren't going to let the run game beat them, and put it on Eli. It was the gameplan, and it worked. Eli is an above average QB, and Jim Johnson knew that an above average QB would not be able to beat his D. And the Giants got out coached too by what he is saying about the playcalling. That being said, this is one of the best defenses I have seem in Philadelphia since the early 90's.
|
| 68 | judy
Leader
ID: 7771722
Mon, Jan 12, 2009, 11:30
|
CONFERENCE CHAMPS
EAGLES over AZ -- Eagles D slows down Warner to Fitz, Westie rediscovers running again
(although the Jints paid so much attention to him that the short passing game worked and he
was a good blocker keeping McNabb's jersey clean. And we kept trying the run to keep them
honest.) Our passing game moves the chains and gets into the End Zone. Could be a high
scoring affair, say 37 - 24.
PGH over BALT -- Balt lack of offense and PGH D determine this outcome. FWP seems to be
"back" and that is not good news for the Ravens D. Ben throws just enough passes to be
efficient and move the chains: 24 - 13.
|
| 69 | Electroman
ID: 47928246
Tue, Jan 13, 2009, 18:44
|
Giants fans take out frustration on a couple of cars.
|
| 70 | Great One
ID: 4510512113
Tue, Jan 13, 2009, 18:50
|
Who knew Phil Simms could move like that!
|
| 71 | J
Leader
ID: 049346417
Sun, Jan 18, 2009, 16:31
|
So far so good for my new favorite team!
Will Demps should've been ejected for that assinine hit on Warner.
Go Cards! (Why is Warner wearing gloves on both hands?)
|
| 72 | Donkey Hunter
Leader
ID: 916288962
Sun, Jan 18, 2009, 16:45
|
There was a piece on ESPN this morning about why he wears gloves on both hands. Unfortunately it involved Kenny Mayne and a midget so I didnt pay any atention to it.
|
| 73 | Pancho Villa
ID: 51546319
Sun, Jan 18, 2009, 18:22
|
My new favorite team(kudos to J) going to the Super Bowl. Amazing.
|
| 74 | Electroman
ID: 47928246
Sun, Jan 18, 2009, 21:50
|
Quitin Demps. That was a stupid play, you could say that it cost them 3 points. The Eagles let this one get away, twice. When Jackson forced the fumble after the INT, they didn't capitalize on what could have been a major game changing moment. Dropped pass by Lewis, and a poor throw that was a TD if throw properly to Baskett, and the missed FG. Cards turned around and take advantage by the trick play TD. Then the D couldn't capitalize and shut down the Cards after they took the lead. They showed me a lot(Arizona) in this game. As for the 4th down play, they could have called that pass interferece, but it was close. There was one in the first half on third down that was more blatent, and they didn't call it. Congrats to Arizona, I just wish that I was rooting for the Eagles in the SB. Was an unexpected run, so didn't hurt as much as the other losses, but it would have been nice to win this one. And for those who would call McNabb a choker, a choker would never have lead his team back. Inaccurate, yes, but choker no. He put this team on his back and led them to this point, they just got beat by a better team.
|
| 75 | judy
Leader
ID: 7771722
Mon, Jan 19, 2009, 12:27
|
Who knew the Eagles defense would let them down so hard. I find it very hard to believe
that they thought they could get away with single coverage by shorter guys on Fitzgerald.
I though of a great Headline for the Eagles papers: "Dreams Fitzzled"
They chose "Death Valley" not too bad,
|
| 76 | Nerfherders
ID: 310111515
Mon, Jan 19, 2009, 14:14
|
It was a bad game indeed, but as I mentioned above, this year's Eagles could not put more than three good games in a row together. I don't think they would have played that well against any of the playoff teams. I can't be too upset though, as by all rights they shouldn't have even been there to play that game in the first place. My guess is that if the Bucs had taken care of business down the stretch, the Giants would have been in the Super Bowl again. Only the Eagles and maybe the Panthers could have beaten them on their home turf.
The Steelers being there are no surprise - I think they were the best team in the AFC going into the playoffs. They are going to be heavy favorites, however I've learned over the last three weeks not to discount the Cardinals. They have been drawing up great plays on offense that are going to confound the Steelers some. I think that if they can jump on the Steelers like they did the Eagles they will have a chance. The Steelers D is alot like the Eagles D. You can beat them by outsmarting them on coverage looks and getting Fitz open on crossing routes. That is what killed the Eagles.
|
| 77 | J
Leader
ID: 049346417
Mon, Jan 19, 2009, 15:10
|
Steelers are 7pt favorites according to sportscenter last night.
Give me the Cards +7!!!!
|
| 78 | Electroman
ID: 47928246
Mon, Jan 19, 2009, 15:41
|
The more I think about that game, the Cards did an amazing job gameplanning against the Eagles D. They used screens and such that works against an aggresive D. But will they be able to do that two games in a row? It should be interesting, because these teams know each other well, as far as coaching staffs. For the Cards to win, they have to set the tempo, as they did yesterday, pull out trick plays. I am thinking that it will be like the Rams Vs Pats superbowl. Low scoring, and decided late.
|
| Rate this thread: | If you wish, you may rate this thread on scale of 1-5. Ratings should indicate how valuable or interesting you believe this thread would be to other users of this forum. A '5' means that this thread is a 'must read'. A '1' means that this is a complete waste of time. If you have previously rated this thread, rating it again will delete your previous rating. If you do not want to rate this thread, but want to see how others have rated it, then click the button without entering a rating, or else click here. |
|
|
|
Post a reply to this message: (But first, how about checking out this sponsor?)
|