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Subject: RIFC 2009: Draft Rationales #1 (Rounds 1-12)
Posted by: Guru
- [330592710] Thu, Aug 20, 2009, 16:52
This thread will be for managers in the 2009 RotoGuru Invitational Football Challenge to provide the rationale for each pick.
Here are the ground rules:
1. Only managers in this league should post here. If you want to provide feedback (either from other league managers, or from those not in the league), put it in the discussion thread. (Non-conforming discussion in this thread will be deleted.)
2. Please keep the pick rationales in the same order as the draft. We'll attempt to keep this thread 2 rounds behind the actual draft. With the lag, most comments should not have an impact on the draft in progress. However, if there are aspects of your pick that you feel need to be kept under wraps, feel free to protect that information. In particular, please avoid mentioning the names of any players who are still undrafted at that time of the post.
If possible, please post your (2 round lagged) comments at the time you make each pick. For example, you should post your comments for your round 1 pick when you make your round 3 selection. If you are not ready to post at that time, then create a "placeholder" so that the next person is able to go ahead in sequence. When your post is ready, simply post it in the draft discussion thread and a moderator can copy it over.
If your rationale is due and intervening placeholders have not been inserted, please insert them before posting your rationale. Simply postfor Guru
1.13 Randy Moss 3. Once the draft is over, each manager is also encouraged to provide a general draft recap, at which time you can discuss your overall strategy, mention any undisclosed factors, comment on what worked out well and what didn't, etc.
The general format should be:
1.01 Adrian Peterson, RB, Min
Several sentences of rationale.
As part of your first round rationale, please comment on your selection of draft sequence.
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Only the 50 most recent replies are currently shown. Click on this text to display hidden posts as well.
[Lengthy or complex threads may require a slight delay before updating.] |
| 115 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Tue, Aug 25, 2009, 12:35
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for SwinganaMiss
9.05 Lance Briggs LB CHI
Using the same rationale in this round as in the last I should've went ahead and taken Josh Wilson for reasons previously mentioned. If I was certain of his KR status I would've done that, but one uncertain KR DB is enough of a risk. My regret was almost immediate as just after this pick Wilson was tops in culdeus's queue.
So, finally I'm on the board at LB with LB, Lance Briggs. I'm expecting top ten LB numbers out of him again this season.
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| 116 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Tue, Aug 25, 2009, 12:35
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for culdeus
9.06 Josh Wilson
DB SEA
Had to. So I think I have #1 and #2 IDP
overall in the can now. Josh WAS my team last year. Dude
saved me on many weeks and was an integral part of a couple
200+ point weeks as well. Really I was prepared to go as
early as 5th round with him, but the way things shook out
with Moreno had me on tilt and I just let him go.
I mean here's a guy that will get 50 points this year easy
on defense and another 100 on returns. Love it and the fact
that it made Bonka go on a rant makes me happy.
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| 117 | youngroman
Donor
ID: 02934823
Tue, Aug 25, 2009, 14:12
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for BoNka
9.07 Kirk Morrison, LB, Oak
After getting home and seeing who I got from my queue I was pleased. Until I actually had time to check out the latest news on him. Since I hurredly put a queue of IDPs together before going out on a job all day, I didn't know he had dislocated his elbow 2 days ago. He's supposed to be ready to go for week 1, and I certainly hope he is. Being burned by a lingering injury here would sting considering the other top IDPs still available at the time. ir
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| 118 | youngroman
Donor
ID: 02934823
Tue, Aug 25, 2009, 14:12
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for fugazi
9.08 Baltimore
I had a feeling team D's were about to drop like flies. So it was pretty easy to pull the trigger on this one. good team D'S score a lot of points. And a bad one can cost your season. I feel confident that the Ravens will emerge as the number two defense this year. Just behind the all mighty Steelers.
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| 119 | youngroman
Donor
ID: 02934823
Tue, Aug 25, 2009, 14:13
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for letterj
9.09 San Diego
I believed that a run on defenses was about to begin, so I grabbed what could potentially be the number one defense in the RIFC. It seemed that there was lots of talent available at all other positions and it seemed to be another HUGE upside pick. In retrospect, I may have reached a little bit, but, coupled with another high upside D, I trust that I will be set at this position.
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| 120 | youngroman
Donor
ID: 02934823
Tue, Aug 25, 2009, 14:17
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9.10 London Fletcher, LB, WAS
my 3rd LB in 9 rounds. what am I thinking? I thought about the Baltimore defense, but did not get them. I have spotted some sleepers at other positions that should hopefully be available later, so I looked at the IDPs again. Fletcher is a warrior. he never missed a game in his 10 year career. In his last 9 season he has over 90 solo tackles every year. add a little bit over everything else and I just drafted one of the most consistent defense players in the NFL. I am just expecting the same this year. and I am sure, he will deliver.
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| 121 | Slackjawed Yokel
ID: 47227122
Tue, Aug 25, 2009, 14:43
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9.11 Giants D, Def, NyG
My thinking here was that there's more differentiation in team defenses than individual defensive players, so I opted for what I thought was the strongest team d available. I was all set to put in the Ravens only to see they had been selected a few picks earlier. Was hoping this would start a run on team d's - we'll see.... (turns out it was more then end of a run than a start.)
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| 122 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Tue, Aug 25, 2009, 16:23
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for Bags
9.12 Paul Posluszny
LB BUF
Quite a few LB’s came off of my queue
that round. One thing I like to have is strong LB’s. Decided
to use this pick to add another LB. Ranked 30th in p/pg last
year I think he is young enough to improve and be a top 15
LB.
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| 123 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Tue, Aug 25, 2009, 16:24
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9.13 Bradie James, LB, Dal
Ranked #8 among linebackers is total pts last year. Not only 116 tackles, but 8 sacks. Good value as the 16th LB drafted, and my first IDP.
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| 124 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Tue, Aug 25, 2009, 18:01
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for beastiemiked
9.14 Gary Brackett LB IND
I couldn't wait any longer to take a LB. Brackett isn't a sexy pick or one that has huge upside. Just your run of the mill middle linebacker. He did miss 4 games last year and still had a decent season. He seemed like one of the last top LB's so I can't complain about missing out of the huge LB run.10.01 Will Blackmon DB GNB
Before the huge linebacker run I had planned on taking two LB's with my picks here. However, the quality of DB's left compared to LB's was much higher. Blackmon is another kick/punt returner. Last year he proved he can hold his own at corner. Apparently, he'll be seeing more PT on defense this year which should only increase his tackle numbers. Even if he gets completely booted from defense his kick and punt return #'s will still make him a middle of the road IDP guy.
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| 125 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Tue, Aug 25, 2009, 18:02
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10.02 Adrian Wilson, DB, Ari
I was all set to take Will Blackmon here. Oops.
Two different ranking sites project Adrian Wilson to be the top DB this year, so why not?
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| 126 | Bags
ID: 47227122
Tue, Aug 25, 2009, 19:57
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10.03 John Carlson, TE, Sea
The last TE left in my
queue. If I don’t find another WR I’ll use the two TE set.
Carlson was a top 10 TE last year as a rookie and with
Hasselbeck hurt most of the year. He defiantly has the
potential to improve.
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| 127 | Slackjawed Yokel
ID: 47227122
Tue, Aug 25, 2009, 19:59
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10.04 Johnnie Lee Higgins, WR, Oak
As I was looking through the available kick returners, I was looking for players also with a shot of scoring some points from the primary positions. Higgins stood out as opposed to some of the defensive backs as someone who looks to be a lock with the return duties but might also see some action as a WR. He had a strong end to the season last year with receiving TD's in the last three weeks.
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| 128 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Tue, Aug 25, 2009, 20:34
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for youngroman
10.05 Percy Harvin
WR MIN
picking a 3rd WR was due. I had him on
the radar for a while now and this round it was time to pick
him before he lands on another team. I don't know yet what
kind of role he will play on the Vikings. I only know that
he gets praised by the coaches for his speed and
versatility. it looks like he could play RB, WR, KR and PR.
all in one game. it wouldn't suprise me if he really gets
used like that. lets see what the season has in store for
him.
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| 129 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Tue, Aug 25, 2009, 20:37
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for letterj
10.06 Donnie Avery, WR, STL
Another #1 WR on a suspect team, Avery put up respectable starting numbers last year, all the while showing big play ability. This year, he slides into the WR#1 previously occupied by the now Jaguar Torry Holt.
Avery slid this far because of a training camp injury. Yet, as of today, it has been reported that Avery will be ready for Week 1. If that is the case, then this is again very good value at pick 132.
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| 130 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Tue, Aug 25, 2009, 20:38
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for fugazi
10.07 Lance Moore
WR NOR
Great value here. I guess everybody was
afraid of Lance because of the injury. But if he gets
healthy and stays that way he could be a top 20 receiver.
Considering I got him in the tenth I'm pretty happy with
that.
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| 131 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Tue, Aug 25, 2009, 20:38
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for BoNkA
10.08 E.J. Henderson, LB, MIN
A top LB 2 years ago and projected to be the same this and last year, I expect him to do so as long as he avoids another injury. I took him last year and was bummed after he went down for the season. Hopefully he can redeem himself for my benefit and put up monster numbers.
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| 132 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Tue, Aug 25, 2009, 20:39
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for culdeus
10.09 Minnesota
Vikings DEF MIN
Seemed logical pick here.
Team D can go off in a hurry and I do not like having to
juggle d based on matchups. I think this is the #2 D in
this format for this year. Good individuals who can get
stats and plus they run the ball alot keeping the other team
off the field.
Last year was hilarious when for some reason I got PITT at
perhaps the 11th D off the board. I was stunned. I'm not a
huge fan of a Team D in any format in any league just
because it takes away from monitoring the growth and
progress of players, but whatever. It is most likely a
holdover from the days when people played smallworld
football in huge numbers. It's just something people are
used to.
Avery and Moore both represented huge values in this round
in my mind.
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| 133 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Wed, Aug 26, 2009, 10:52
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for SwinganaMiss
10.10 Rashard
Mendenhall RB PIT
Another one of those
forgetable/regretable picks. In my haste to take a RB I was
thinking about other backups that might see some time--the
most obvious have been taken at this point.
I expect the Steelers to be good. I wouldn't be surprised if
Parker got injured. I would like to think that Rashard could
step in and become an impact player. Way too early on this
one. Shame on me.
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| 134 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Wed, Aug 26, 2009, 10:52
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for s R
10.11 Eric Weddle DB SDG
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| 135 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Wed, Aug 26, 2009, 10:53
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for IAC
10.12 Philadelphia Eagles
DEF PHI
Not much to say about this pick. The
Eagles blitz well, and they had a favorable schedule... and
I don't think I overpayed for them taking them at the end of
the 10th round.
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| 136 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Wed, Aug 26, 2009, 10:53
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for Smith32
10.13 Dustin
Keller TE NYJ
There is / was a strange
mix of guys with 2 TEs and guys with
none, and I had Keller and Carlson in the queue as they were
the
last guys I had in that tier. Carlson went a few picks
before mine,
and so I got Keller. He got off to a slow start last year,
but really
made an impact late in the year. The way the Jets offense is
shaping up, I think he will be a good safety valve and
become the
first or second option on passing downs. If he takes the
next step
in his second year, he'll be a good value here.
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| 137 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Wed, Aug 26, 2009, 10:54
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for wiggs
10.14 Laveranues Coles WR Cin
I was pleasantly surprised that Coles was still around with this pick because I considered him with my 9.01 pick. I think with OchoCinco playing up to his normal abilities this season that should leave Coles open for alot of plays. I also think that Carson Palmer should be back to his old self soon. I expect big things from Coles this season and could be one of the biggest steals in the draft.
11.01 James Farrior LB Pitts
I was hoping to get a bit of a better backer here, but I really wanted to finish up my lb core. I now have what I consider to be 3 top 10 lbs. Farrior is a force in a great Pitts defense. I expect 80-90 tackles and a few sacks. I had hoped for a guy that gets more sacks with this pick, maybe a DeMarcus ware type player, but i should have known he would never make it back to me.
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| 138 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Wed, Aug 26, 2009, 10:54
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for Smith32
11.02 Matt
Hasselbeck QB SEA
Since Palmer is about as
risky as QB1s come, I figured I needed to
get a "QB1.5" that I could reasonably start every week if
necessary.
Hasselbeck has a new weapon with TJH, and Carlson should be
a
solid target. Hasselbeck will never be a Brees or Brady, but
hopefully he'll be serviceable.
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| 139 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Wed, Aug 26, 2009, 10:54
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for IAC
11.03 D.J. Williams LB
DEN
The first IDP I take. I've have a few IDPs on my
shortlist for a couple rounds now, but someone always
managed to grab them before I did (good drafting boyz!), so
I'm trying to fill out my IDP starters a little late.
Williams is the talent of his LB group, and should be on the
field for 3 downs. He may be a top 10 LB.
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| 140 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Wed, Aug 26, 2009, 10:55
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for s R
11.04 Laurence Maroney RB NWE
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| 141 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Wed, Aug 26, 2009, 10:55
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for SwinganaMiss
11.05 Brent Celek
TE PHI
I was expecting to take Celek in this
round, but I wasn't sure my queue would be setup to make it
happen as I was setting it for two rounds.
Fortunately for me I got the guy I was looking for (thanks
Guru for stopping the draft to confirm it).
I think Celek should get the opportunity to increase his
numbers significantly from last year (that should really be
a no-brainer if you see his numbers from last year). I'm
hoping he can be relied upon as an every week TE for me, w/o
*undrafted* ahead of him on the depth chart. Something
around 600 yds and 5-6 TDs would be pleasing at this spot.
Hopefully his minor injury is healed well before the regular
season.
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| 142 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Wed, Aug 26, 2009, 10:55
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for culdeus
11.06 Visanthe
Shiancoe TE MIN
Farve is gonna throw alot
and will be chased. VS represents a safety valve and a good
chance to finish top 5 in TE. He's a target of mine in all
leagues this year as a sleeperish TE. A need based pick as
people strangely have stocked up on TE this year. I think
at the time of this pick 3 teams already had 2TEs. I
imagine this is done to plug them in at flex, but if you
treat flex as a conglomeration of WR/TE there's no way the
value of the TEs taken exceeded the WR value.
Will evaluate the "stud TE" teams later around that.
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| 144 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Wed, Aug 26, 2009, 14:29
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for BoNkA
11.07 Tennessee Titans, DEF
I wasn't sure which direction I should go with this pick as I looked at DEs, TEs, WRs, and DEFs. Every other position I figured the guys I was looking at would be there later or the bye weeks just didn't work out. I'm hoping the Titans can put up similar numbers as last season. They may not be amazing and I possibly took them a little early but I've been stuck with crap DEFs in the past and it's really not a good thing.
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| 145 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Wed, Aug 26, 2009, 14:29
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for fugazi
11.08 Jared Allen
DL MIN
When everybody started drafting IDP'S I
already had my sights on Allen. He has the largest ceiling
of any of the DL'S. And could score as much as some top
LB'S. Any way now I don't have to face him on game day.
Allen has always tore me apart in past seasons.
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| 146 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Wed, Aug 26, 2009, 14:30
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for letterj
11.09 Edgerrin James, RB, ARI
Over a round ago, Edge signed a deal with the Seahawks and, yet, pick after pick went by in the 10th and 11th rounds as I waited for someone to draft him. Rumour has it that James had previously received offers from two other NFL teams but he said ``No Thanks``, because he was not going to have a chance at a starting gig with those teams. One would assume that the Seahawks gave him that assurance and that is why he is now in the Pacific Northwest.
If he becomes the starter in Seattle (and it`s not out of the question given Edge`s pass blocking skills), he was worth, at the very least, drafting in the sixth round (as that`s where Julius Jones was selected).
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| 147 | youngroman
ID: 47227122
Wed, Aug 26, 2009, 14:48
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11.10 James Davis, RB, Cle
Davis has a fantastic
training camp. It seems like he already passed Harrison for
#2 RB and is on the way to spell an aging Jamal Lewis. with
his potential, there is not much you can do wrong in the
11th round.
thought about Edgerrin James too, he was #2 in my queue.
problem with him is that he would be my 3rd RB with the same
bye week.
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| 148 | Slackjawed Yokel
ID: 47227122
Wed, Aug 26, 2009, 14:51
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11.11 Matt Cassel, QB, KC
I wanted to grab a backup for my starter Matt Ryan before things got too thin. I was hoping that I'd be able to get one with the same first name so I wouldn't have to change my planned motivational chant 'Dammit Matt - throw it to your own team, and would it kill you to get one touchdown per game!?' With Matt Hasselbeck and Matt Schaub off the board, I was quickly running out of opportunities. Plus, I was a bit concerned having to rely solely on a QB in his second year of NFL experience, so now I can rely on two QB's with a year of NFL experience.
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| 149 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Wed, Aug 26, 2009, 16:15
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for Bags
11.12 Yeremiah Bell
DB MIA
100 solos and 20 assists at SS last year.
If you can’t draft a DB with return eligibility then one who
makes tackles like a LB is not a bad way to go.
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| 150 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Wed, Aug 26, 2009, 16:15
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11.13 Jeremy Shockey, TE, NO
Kind of tough to figure out where to go at this stage of the draft. I do need a 5th receiver, another backup RB, and 4 more starting IDPs. With Witten as my starting TE, Shockey won’t crack my lineup except as a bye week filler unless he shows he can produce. And if he does return to form, maybe I can trade a TE later on to shore up some other weakness.
In any event, 61 yards and a TD in the first preseason game shows the upside potential. And his bye week meshes well with my other receivers.
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| 151 | beastiemiked
ID: 35621411
Wed, Aug 26, 2009, 19:21
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11.14 Brian Urlacher, LB, CHI A former top 5 linebacker. He's apparently 100% healthy this year which boost his production. I'm there's no way he doesn't improve on last years numbers unless he gets injured. I consider him a steal at this point. 12.01 Willis McGahee, RB, BAL I'm not a big fan of McGahee but he had slipped too far. He'll be splitting carries with Rice and possibly another RB. Rice is unproven and McGahee supposedly is more motivated this year. The great thing about Baltimore is they have plenty of carries to spread around. Even if he gets less carries than Rice he should be getting PT and points each week.
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| 152 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Wed, Aug 26, 2009, 19:42
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12.02 Mario Williams, DL, Hou
Some would argue (and I have been among them) that a DL shouldn’t be taken until a later round than this. But Williams has several compelling facets:
1. He could turn out to be the best at the position, and should at least be in the top 5.
2. He has a bye in week 10, so barring injury (or hurricanes), I won’t need to tie up a bench spot for a lineman during the peak bye weeks. I can simply “set it and forget it”.
3. I can’t find anyone else to pick with a more compelling rationale.
So be it.
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| 153 | Bags
ID: 47227122
Wed, Aug 26, 2009, 21:00
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12.03 Dallas D, Def, Dal
I was hoping to get MIN
def here. DAL should be a good defense; they could really
improve if they force more turnovers and score some
defensive TD’s. I’ll be rooting them on as always.
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| 154 | Slackjawed Yokel
ID: 47227122
Wed, Aug 26, 2009, 21:02
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12.04 David Harris, LB, NYJ
Time to grab my first IDP. There had already been 21 LB's off the board, but I don't think the dropoff was huge considering the solid backups I was able to grab on the offensive end. Harris put up big tackle numbers as a rookie and had some solid games last year but missed about half the season because of injuries.
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| 156 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Thu, Aug 27, 2009, 20:44
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for youngroman
12.05 Zach Miller
TE OAK
last year he had 56 catches for 778 yards
and 1 TD. this year there are talks that he will see even
more balls. so add a few catches, which means a few more
yards more and likely more than 1 or 2 TDs and you have a
nice TE that you should be able to play every week.
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| 157 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Thu, Aug 27, 2009, 20:44
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for letterj
12.06 Josh Morgan, WR, SFO
Another potential WR#1 on a suspect passing team, the talented Morgan was very impressive in preseason last year, only to have his regular season derailed by injuries. He has continued his stellar play in mini camp and training camp this year.
I have seen him go as high as the 6th round in some mocks, so I decided to forego some other needs for now for this high upside pick.
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| 158 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Thu, Aug 27, 2009, 20:45
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for fugazi
12.07 Ernie sims, LB, DET
Ernie should be on the field a lot! And that's why I picked him. He's a great talent on a terrible team. He should have plenty of time on the filed to rack up the tackles and such. This theory has not always worked for me in past. But I feel pretty good about this pick.
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| 159 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Thu, Aug 27, 2009, 20:45
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for BoNkA
12.08 Justin Tuck, DE, NYG
The draft looked ready for a slew of DEs to go in the next round or two after two of them were finally taken. I didn't have any pressing needs, so I grabbed Tuck, the highest scoring DE last season. I'm hoping he ends up with more sack opportunities since he has a returning teammate and the Giant's d-line is just a beast. I really liked this pick and it was topped off by the fact I swooped him right in front of Culdeus.
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| 160 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Thu, Aug 27, 2009, 20:46
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for culdeus
12.09 Chris Henry WR CIN
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| 161 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Thu, Aug 27, 2009, 20:46
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for SwinganaMiss
12.10 New England
Patriots DEF NWE
I was already stoked to
get Chris Henry here--counting his TD passes. Just one
culdeus pick stood in the way, and of course my hopes were
dashed.
I hadn't really even glanced at Team Ds to this point, so I
took a look at a few schedules. The Pats scheduled seems
pretty weak this year. I'll be looking for a few fill ins,
but not too many. The Pats always seem to make big plays, so
that's what I'm looking for. Now not only do I want them to
score 60 every game (Brady TD passes galore), but I want
them to shutout their opponents every week.
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| 162 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Thu, Aug 27, 2009, 20:47
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for s R
12.11 Trent Edwards QB BUF
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| 163 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Thu, Aug 27, 2009, 20:47
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for IAC
12.12 Terrell Suggs DL
BAL
It seems like Suggs has been playing forever, but
he's still on 26 years old. This is a little on the early
side for me to take a DL normally, but I found myself not
being overly exited for many of the LBs available, so I
aimed at targeting an early DL for once.
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| 164 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Thu, Aug 27, 2009, 20:47
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for Smith32
12.13 Fred Taylor
RB NWE
Since my top 2 RBs have the same bye, I
figured I needed to get
someone other than a handcuff - someone who might score 7-8
pts a week rather than someone who will either get 20
carries or 2
carries that week I need him. Who knows what will happen in
New
England. He might be a big bust, but there wasn't much
better out
there for RBs in Rd 12.
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| 165 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Thu, Aug 27, 2009, 20:48
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for wiggs
12.14 Trent Cole
DL PHI
I have Trent Cole as the 2nd best DL
after Jared Allen. The guy hasnt missed a game in the past 3
seasons. He is in a blitzing defense and should get double
digit sacks this season. I am also expecting about 50
tackles out of Cole this season.
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| 166 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Thu, Aug 27, 2009, 20:48
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Rationales for rounds 13-24
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