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0 Subject: RIFC 2010: Draft Rationales

Posted by: Guru
- [330592710] Sat, Aug 21, 2010, 11:22

This thread will be for managers in the 2010 RotoGuru Invitational Football Challenge to provide the rationale for each pick.

Here are the ground rules:
1. Only managers in this league should post here. If you want to provide feedback (either from other league managers, or from those not in the league), put it in the discussion thread. (Non-conforming discussion in this thread will be deleted.)

2. Please keep the pick rationales in the same order as the draft. We'll attempt to keep this thread 2 rounds behind the actual draft. With the lag, most comments should not have an impact on the draft in progress. However, if there are aspects of your pick that you feel need to be kept under wraps, feel free to protect that information. In particular, please avoid mentioning the names of any players who are still undrafted at that time of the post.

If possible, please post your (2 round lagged) comments at the time you make each pick. If you are not ready to post at that time, then create a "placeholder" so that the next person is able to go ahead in sequence. When your post is ready, simply post it in the draft discussion thread and a moderator can copy it over.

If your rationale is due and intervening placeholders have not been inserted, please insert them before posting your rationale. Simply post in this format:

for Guru
1.13 Randy Moss, WR, NE

3. Once the draft is over, each manager will also be encouraged to provide a general draft recap, at which time you can discuss your overall strategy, mention any undisclosed factors, comment on what worked out well and what didn't, etc. A separate thread will be set up for that.

The general format should be:
1.01 Adrian Peterson, RB, Min
Several sentences of rationale.

As part of your first round rationale, please comment on your selection of draft sequence.
Only the 50 most recent replies are currently shown. Click on this text to display hidden posts as well.
[Lengthy or complex threads may require a slight delay before updating.]
281Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Mon, Aug 30, 2010, 10:13
for letterj
21.06 Adam Jones, DB, Cin
The one formerly known as PacMan, because he gobbles up yards. He is supposed to return kickoffs, and given his talent, could also be a starting CB on a team that LOVES reclamation projects. I hope he doesn't go to a strip bar this weekend, 'cuz I don't think Goodell has patience for this guy.
282Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Mon, Aug 30, 2010, 10:14
for Electroman
21.07 Dan Carpenter, K, Mia
Well, what can you say about a kicker? Among what was left, I didn’t really know that much about him. But I saw that he is high on lists because of his strong leg and accuracy. Many feel that he could have a big year. He has hit 46 of 53 FG in his first 2 years, which is better than the guys that have gone earlier, at the same point in their careers. The Dolphins should be better this year too, giving them more scoring.
283Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Mon, Aug 30, 2010, 10:15
for IAC
21.08 Todd Heap, TE, Bal
My 3rd TE. Heap seems likely to continue to be a favored red-zone threat for Flacco. The Ravens will likely be throwing a lot this year, so I'm expecting Heap to be heavily involved. They did however draft a couple young TE's; good thing this isn't a dynasty league.
284Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Mon, Aug 30, 2010, 10:15
for Motley Crue
21.09 Mike Peterson, LB, Atl
Peterson is an old man now, and he’s probably not going to get 100 solo tackles ever again. But it’s the 21st round and I’d wager about 12 of the guys picked in this round will be cut by Week 3. I think he’s going to start in Week 1, but he’s dealing with an injury even now. Peterson is not a big investment for me, so it makes it easier to cut him when it’s time to pick up the hot player during claims. Or before if necessary.
285Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Mon, Aug 30, 2010, 10:16
for twilson
21.10 Ellis Hobbs, DB, Phi
Had been targeting Bulluck and Bradie James as late game LBs, but they went off the board. Back in his NE days, Hobbs was a top DB performer, combining a starting job with consistent kick return performance. He got knocked out for the season early last year but seems to have recovered enough that the Eagles felt comfortable trading away [undrafted]. Hopefully that means he will be back to his old tricks as a CB/KR. Since the pick was made, the Eagles have declared him the primary kick returner.
286Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Mon, Aug 30, 2010, 10:16
for youngroman
21.11 Roscoe Parrish, WR, Buf
He had 56yds just in the 1st half in last nights preseason game. And he is the primary returner for the Bills. It finally could be the first season where Parrish will not be a special team guy only. I like this pick a lot if this comes true. if not I will get one of the breakout players of week 1 for him.
287Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Mon, Aug 30, 2010, 10:17
for Smith32
21.12 Denver defense
At this point in the draft, I felt there was limited value at any of the skill positions, and there were no IDPs that stood out to me. I also think you can generally do about 20-25 pts better over the course of the season carrying 2 defenses and capitalizing on good matchups. Denver always plays 25% of their games against KC and Oakland, with bonus matchups against SEA and STL this year. Dumervil's injury definitely hurts though.
288Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Mon, Aug 30, 2010, 10:17
for Frick
21.13 Perrish Cox, DB, DEN
I don't know much about Cox other than he has a chance to be the primary returner, assuming he Eddie Royal isn't in the job full time. At this point in the draft, it was worth a gamble.
289Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Mon, Aug 30, 2010, 10:18
for Fugazi
21.14 Rob Gronkowski, TE, NE
Gronkowski was about the only TE left on the board when I made this pick. I needed a backup TE, and I read some good thigs about Rob. He's a big guy with good hands. Hopefully Brady will target him often, you just never know with the pats. Throw in the fact that Gronkowski is a rookie, and you got all the makings for a real dud. hopefully he works out, or I only have to start him once.

22.01 Marshawn Lynch, RB, Buf
Just grabbing one of the remaining RB'S here. I don't see Lynch having much of a season, But maybe he will be worth starting a couple of games.

290Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Mon, Aug 30, 2010, 10:19
for Frick
22.02 Tim Tebow, QB, DEN
Did I just mention worth a gamble? That defines this pick to a T. I don't expect Tebow to be Denver's starting QB, and I have serious doubts about his ability to be a QB in the NFL. But, I do see McDaniels wanting to get him into games in a Kordell Stewart/Slash type of role. He's decent insurance as a bye week/short term injury QB. I doubt he puts up big numbers, but he could get into a game and produce a few points on occasion.
291Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Mon, Aug 30, 2010, 10:20
for Smith32
22.03 Matt Prater, K, Den
Prater was 8th in pts scored among kickers last year in this format. I think the thin Denver air helps with the longer attempts. Plus he has a Week 9 bye - I like to try to draft a late-week bye kicker, and then swap him for a guy who has already had his bye.
292Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Mon, Aug 30, 2010, 15:34
for youngroman
22.04 Jim Leonhard, DB, NYJ
DL and K can still wait. Leonhard always racks up his tackles, but he got drafted because there is the possibility to do either punt or kick returns or both. Maybe not from the start, but it will happen sometime during the season. if his tackle numbers are good until then, he may still be on my roster. but to be honest: I doubt it.
293Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Mon, Aug 30, 2010, 15:37
for twilson
22.05 Mewelde Moore, RB, Pitt
He’s the clear #2 RB in Pittsburgh, so I picked him up as a handcuff. I drafted him now rather than later because I didn’t yet have other targets picked out.
294Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Mon, Aug 30, 2010, 15:38
for Motley Crue
22.06 Oakland defense
These rationales are getting harder to write, because there’s not much separating any of these players except hunches. My hunch on Oakland is that there’s a culture change afoot with the dismissal of a certain Purple Dranking QB. This team has some players that are going to surprise some people. Oakland could wind up being one of those teams that improves by 6 or 8 games; the division is certainly not a strong one. If that happens it will likely be because the offense is better. But if the offense is better then maybe the defense will sense an opportunity that wasn’t apparent last year. Maybe the defense plays lights out this season and finishes in the Top 10 (or 5!). So you asked for a rationale and this is what I was thinking when I made this pick. If I’m right, though, my cult of personality can only further swell with enigma.
295Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Mon, Aug 30, 2010, 15:39
for IAC
22.07 Mario Manningham, WR, NYG

With Domenik Hixon placed on the IR, Manningham has very little competition for the 3rd WR role. Last year he managed 800+ yards. I'd be happy with the same (obviously). He also will be helping out in the return game (punts mainly), where there are a lot of question marks for the Giants. On the downside... he has been dealing with injuries throughout the off-season, and has preseason sensation [undrafted] currently breathing down his neck.
296Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Mon, Aug 30, 2010, 15:40
for Electroman
22.08 Josh Morgan, WR, SF
He is listed as the #2 WR on SF. I am guessing that teams will be keying more on Davis and Crabtree, so he may have favourable matchups.
297Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Mon, Aug 30, 2010, 15:40
for letterj
22.09 Jerious Norwood, RB, Atl
A backup running back that has a serious extra gear. Norwood can put up big points in the rushing and return game. I had someone else in mind, and then forgot about him, so...time will tell.
298Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Mon, Aug 30, 2010, 15:41
for Promize
22.10 Anthony Dixon, RB, SF
Gore is prone to IR... Westbrook is prone to IR... Welcome to the NFL rookie!
299Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Mon, Aug 30, 2010, 15:41
for Slizz
22.11 Jonathan Goff, LB, NYG
The press clipping on Goff and why I chose him:

"It takes a lot to follow Antonio Pierce, who helped lead the Giants’ defense to a Super Bowl. It says a lot, though, that the Giants let Pierce go and then passed on options in the draft and free agency to give Goff, a fifth-round pick out of Vanderbilt in 2008, a clear path to the starting Mike gig. He profiles as a better run-stopper than Pierce was, and while he is nowhere near as experienced when it comes to reading quarterbacks, he’s faster than Pierce, which should help in coverage. With the Giants’ move to the Tampa-2, Goff will assume the role played by guys like Barrett Ruud and Gary Brackett. He has great potential as an IDP linebacker, and should help the real Giants back towards the top of the defensive charts."

If I can get anywhere near Barrett Ruud value in the 22nd round, Lord have mercy!!!

300Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Mon, Aug 30, 2010, 15:42
for Bonka
22.12 Mike Williams, WR, SEA

Figured he'd be available at this point. Was the 10th pick a few years back but never panned out and gained a ton of weight. He's now slimmed down and has looked good in pre-season and could be the WR1 in Seattle. Big upside for a late round pick.
301Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Mon, Aug 30, 2010, 15:42
22.13 Tampa Bay defense
I’ll probably be carrying two defenses for the better part of the season, mixing and matching from week to week. Of the defenses still remaining, I thought TB had the best fit with my other defense, Tennessee.
302Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Mon, Aug 30, 2010, 15:43
for Building 7
22.14 Dan Connor, Car, LB
I was going to pick Dan with my last set of picks, but was hoping he would make it here, and he did. He’s the MLB for Carolina in the 4-3. That’s really all I know, or need to know to make this pick. Goff was another option in the same situation, but he was picked.
303Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Mon, Aug 30, 2010, 15:44
for Building 7
23.01 Demaryius Thomas, WR, Den
He was a 1st round draft pick, but hurt his foot. That’s OK, I can wait. If he doesn’t do something before the bye weeks, he’ll probably have to go. WR looks like my weakest part of my team, so I’ll select someone with a high upside.
304Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Mon, Aug 30, 2010, 15:44
23.02 Mardy Gilyard, WR, StL
A true flier. The WR situation is St. Louis is very unsettled with Avery now out for the year. It’s possible that Gilyard could see some action as a receiver. It seems likely that he’ll get some kick and punt return opportunities. It’s plausible that, if Amendola becomes a full time starting receiver, the Rams might opt to make Gilyard the primary return man.

I had been thinking of adding a 7th IDP with this pick, but I don’t think I’ll need one until week 4, and by that time, someone on the roster can be sacrificed. Perhaps Gilyard. And I didn’t think the IDPs available at this point were likely to be much different than what I can get as a F/A in a few weeks.

My last pick (rd 24) will be Chris Redman, as the Matt Ryan handcuff. Since I can’t think of any reason why he’d be drafted by anyone else, I figure I’ll take Gilyard now. It’s unlikely he’d be drafted either – although he’s probably got more visibility than Redman.
305Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Tue, Aug 31, 2010, 09:38
for Bonka
23.03 Lawrence Tynes, K, NYG

I didn't want to wait until the 3rd to last pick in the draft to grab my kicker. While I may end up swapping some in and out all season, Tynes may be good enough to play at least up until his bye. Not really concerned as I can't really do much worse at my K position than last year.
306Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Tue, Aug 31, 2010, 09:39
for Slizz
23.04 Arizona defense
Cardinals defense always puts up decent stats and I can play matchups (Bucs offense, Rams & the turnover-prone Seahawks 2x/year). Plus they have my boy Nine-O!
307Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Tue, Aug 31, 2010, 09:40
for Promize
23.05 Brandon Flowers, DB, KC
Sorry, just not a lot to write about a player in the 23rd and 24th draft picks. I think at this point we all just wanting to end the draft and whatever is available that looks good we grab. Some of us cross our fingers that a IR report will come out right on our pick so we can grab someone off the line... But that didn't happen to me. :)

I needed to beef up my IDP's, so grabbed a CB

308Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Tue, Aug 31, 2010, 09:41
for letterj
23.06 Neil Rackers, PK, HOU

I thought about punting PK entirely, but then I saw Rackers sitting there. If the Texans offense lives up to the hype, Rackers, indoors, could put up as good a numbers as anybody.
309Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Tue, Aug 31, 2010, 09:41
for Electroman
23.07 Andre Brown, RB, NYG
Nothing much but a flier here. I saw in a magazine that he is a player to watch with the RB situation in NYG.
310Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Tue, Aug 31, 2010, 09:41
for IAC
23.08 Troy Polamalu, FS, PIT


I tend to shy away from the FS position in general, but as a late flyer, with his talents he should be a good bye week filler. He doesn't share a similar bye week with any of my current IDPs.
311Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Tue, Aug 31, 2010, 09:42
for Motley Crue
23.09 Bob Sanders, DB, IND

Not kidding myself with Sanders, who has never once played 16 games in a season. Frankly I wonder how he manages to stay in the league, playing less than 7 games in 4 of his 6 seasons. It has to be that when he's on the field he's an animal. I'll take an animal for 6 or 8 games while I look for replacements on the waiver wire.
312Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Tue, Aug 31, 2010, 09:43
for twilson
23.10 John Abraham, DL, Atl
He has produced fairly well in the past when healthy and faces the statue known as Byron Leftwich in Week 1.
313Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Tue, Aug 31, 2010, 09:43
for youngroman
23.11 Robert Mathis, DL, IND

We need to start a DL, right? Outside of the top 3, all the others performances are not really predictable. So before wasting a 18th rounder for waiver wire material, I am wasting my 23rd rounder.
314Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Tue, Aug 31, 2010, 09:44
for Smith32
23.12 James Farrior, LB, PIT

I needed 2 IDPs to round out my roster, so I turned to my go-to guy. I may have drafted Farrior more than any other player during my years in the RIFC and QL. He's a great late round pick, because he fills a roster spot with solid, dependable production. Last year he had at least 4 pts in 14 games. That consistency is valuable.
315Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Tue, Aug 31, 2010, 09:44
for Frick
23.13 Early Doucet, WR, Ari
With the departure of Anquan Boldin someone needs to step up and play WR2 with Fitzgerald. With this pick I'm hoping Breaston stays in as the slot receiver and Doucet develops into a a WR2.
316Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Tue, Aug 31, 2010, 09:45
for Fugazi
23.14 Christopher Ivory, RB, NO
It looks like Ivory will be the number three back. So it only makes sense to grab him here. Hopefully I never have to start him. May Pierre have a healthy season.
317Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Tue, Aug 31, 2010, 09:46
for Fugazi
24.01 Derrick Ward, RB, TB
I forgot Ward was even in my queue. I'm sure he will be the first player cut this season. I really want nothing to do with anything Buccaneer. Are they even trying over there?
318Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Tue, Aug 31, 2010, 09:49
for Frick
24.02 Washington defense
I needed another D to cover the bye week and possibly a couple of other weeks. D's have huge variances and changing from the 4-3 to the 3-4 doesn't help with the expectations. At most this is an asset to trade or WW fodder depending on how the D performs.
319Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Tue, Aug 31, 2010, 09:49
for Smith32
24.03 Roger "Rocky" McIntosh, LB, WAS

I am a Skins fan, so I had to make at least one homer pick. Rocky is a bit like Farrior - he puts up dependable numbers on a weekly basis. Rocky had 4.5 pts or more in 13 games last year. I am not sure what the 3-4 will do to the Redskins IDP numbers. Rocky will most likely share the middle with Fletcher, so maybe he can steal a few of his tackles.
320Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Tue, Aug 31, 2010, 09:50
for youngroman
24.04 Jonathan Dwyer, RB, PIT

I was planning on taking my kicker here, but I figured I can wait for that until the season starts. I hope I know more about my latest picks until then, so I drop the right guy. And this could very well be Jonathan Dwyer. he had a good preseason and the #2 back in Pittsburgh isn't the greatest option. so he might earn some playing time if he keeps opposing defenders missing their tackles. I guess I will drop him just before the season opener.
321Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Tue, Aug 31, 2010, 09:50
for twilson
24.05 Mario Haggan, LB, Den
Wanted another LB for lineup flexibility. Haggan will be the other ILB in Denver next to DJ Williams, so he should have a good number of chances. I have no idea if he’ll convert them or not. He may not even be on my roster by Week 1, but he’ll do for now.
322Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Tue, Aug 31, 2010, 09:51
for Motley Crue
24.06 Antwan Odom, DL, CIN

Somehow this guy managed to sack Aaron Rodgers 5 times in a game last season. That was a bit of a fluke, but he did have 3 sacks in his other 5 games before going on IR. He's in the prime of his career and we'll see if he's healthy or not fairly quickly.

Great draft, fellas. Thanks for the memories.
323Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Tue, Aug 31, 2010, 09:51
for IAC
24.07 Robbie Gould, K, CHI

He's a kicker. I don't really mind who I got here. Whoever was left was going to be good enough IMHO.
324Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Tue, Aug 31, 2010, 09:52
for Electroman
24.08 Clay Matthews, LB, GB
Matthews blew onto the scene with 10 sacks last year. I don’t see why he wouldn’t continue to improve this year.
325Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Tue, Aug 31, 2010, 09:52
for letterj
24.09 Dwight Freeney, DL, Ind
When he has been healthy (a theme on my team), Freeney has terrorized opposing QBs. There were a few others that I researched, but Freeney seemed to have the most upside.
326Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Tue, Aug 31, 2010, 09:53
for Promize
24.10 Nate Washington, WR< Ten
Starting receiver for a questionable passing team with their star RB. Will see, it could be decent since teams will know exactly what they are getting game after game with the Titans.. Chris Johnson.
327Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Tue, Aug 31, 2010, 09:53
for Slizz
24.11 Aaron Curry, LB, Sea
The 4th overall pick in the 2009 draft. I'll let the Seattle Seahawks defensive writeup do this pick justice:

One of the first things Carroll did upon taking the Seahawks job was to get some film cut-ups of linebacker Aaron Curry to see how Curry could be better used in pass pressure situations. Curry was the fourth overall pick in 2009, and it was thought that his tackling power and pure athleticism would propel Seattle’s linebacker corps to the league’s elite. Curry started out strong, but rookie linebackers need veteran chaperones, and when Lofa Tatupu was lost for the season after a Week 6 pectoral muscle injury, Curry’s demon speed turned to recklessness...

...Second-year linebacker David Hawthorne replaced Tatupu in the middle. While Hawthorne’s tackle stats were impressive on the surface (there was a three-game, 29-tackle stretch in midseason, and he made 15 tackles against the Bears in Week 3), it’s important to remember that middle linebackers in 4-3 defenses are always tackle magnets. What the team missed with Tatupu off the field wasn’t just his ability to keep everyone assignment-correct. Tatupu also displayed an ability to drop into coverage that fit the Seahawks’ Tampa-2 schemes far more than Hawthorne’s “forward-only” skill set. The Vikings in Week 11 specifically and repeatedly exploited Hawthorne’s weaknesses in pass coverage.

With Tatupu back, I expect his trend of 8ppg+ to continue which is damn fine for a LB4. Think of his skillset and statline to project similar to Thomas Davis pre-injury.

328Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Tue, Aug 31, 2010, 09:54
for Bonka
24.12 Jalen Parmele, RB, BAL

Deep sleeper, could back up Rice if McGahee is hurt or moved. Also doing returns.
329Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Tue, Aug 31, 2010, 09:54
24.13 Chris Redman, QB, Atl
Backup to my QB1, Matt Ryan. In his three games last year (when Ryan was injured), he average about 14 fantasy pts. So if Ryan goes down again, Redman could be competitive with my QB2, Matt Cassel.

Hopefully, I’ll never have to make that choice.
330Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Tue, Aug 31, 2010, 10:12
for Building 7
24.14 Tony Scheffler, TE, DET

Supposedly, he’s going to see some action in Detroit. We’ll see. Actually, I won’t see, because they haven’t shown a Lions game on TV in years. Maybe, on Thanksgiving, but I doubt he’ll still be on my team.
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