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0 Subject: RIFC 2011: Draft Recap

Posted by: Guru
- [330592710] Wed, Aug 31, 2011, 10:32

RIFC Managers - You are each invited (although not required) to post your general reflections on the completed draft. Comments may be as detailed or as general as you wish. As a catalyst, free free to comment on any of the following:

1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?

2. What were your favorite picks? Which do you wish you could do over?

3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?

4. What surprised you most about the draft?

5. If you could start over, would you do anything differently?

Non-managers are also welcome to post general comments on the draft, and to raise questions.
1I_AM_CANADIAN
      Sustainer
      ID: 01361448
      Wed, Aug 31, 2011, 10:52
That had to be one of the least stressful RIFC drafts I’ve ever been a part of. Dave/Guru, thank you so much for once again for running this league! I almost exclusively play on these boards (although I’ll be taking part in a local 10 guy house league this year), and wouldn’t have it any other way. Since Guru came up with this format in 2004, I immediately clung to it, and it’s evolved a ton, but almost always for the best. I think the progression this year once again goes that way, although I’m concerned the benches might be a little “short” IMHO (hindsight is 20/20). We’ll see how this plays out.

1. My Strategies employed this year:
#1. Don’t follow runs! It’s a big reason why I ended up with Gates at 4.03 instead of another QB/WR like everyone else, and why I picked DBs at 12.03 and 13.12 instead of LBs like everyone else.
#2. Focus/research on returner guys once again. Even if the numbers will dip this year, I like the consistency of knowing that a guy will be giving me points on offence as well as special teams. I managed to get: Hester, Cribbs, Washington, who should be full time returners, as well as Royal, Roberts and Bess who should be getting some (maybe not all) PR work. Most of these guys shouldn’t surprise anyone who played the last few years.
#3. REACH - When I really trust in my gut. A few examples: Hillis, Hightower, and maybe Landry.
#4. Be VALUE conscious - I think I heard a few annoyed comments about the likes of: Freeman, Gronkowski, Celek, Tuck, and Landry.
#5. Don’t rush into IDP - Besides Tuck, I waited on most my IDPs, knowing that I’d miss the ELITE LBs but hoping that I could build a solid offence, then find value. I have some “risky” picks with Landry and Thomas Davis who are coming off injuries, but, you get what you pay for.

Overall, I’m very happy with how my team looks. It’s not without some weaknesses, but I have a lot of confidence in this squad. I think we can go a long way.

2. Favorite Picks:
Tim Hightower - Poor man’s Arian Foster? That’s what I’m hoping for.
Leon Washington - I think he’s going to surprise a lot of people in the NFL this year.
Brent Celek - It just didn’t make sense that he was still available IMHO.
Josh Cribbs - Much like Celek, if you consider our scoring system.

3. Other teams:
Normally, I’m evaluating most teams throughout the draft, but this year, it just went so fast, that I had very little time to get to know them that in depth. At a glance: Shortbus, Electro, Swinganamiss, YR, Bonka, Crazy 88s, and Guru are my 7 picks to make the playoffs... besides me.

4. Speed, but also, how little high profile injuries happened during the draft. In previous years, it always seemed like by the end of the draft, one person is really depressed and wishing they could go back to the drawing board.

5. Yes, I think I’d do a little more research on TFL... I’m not sure if I missed the boat on a stat that might make a significant impact. Also, it’s interesting to note that the MFL draft recaper doesn’t like my team (10th of 14th) much. Hmmm. Not a good sign.
2Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Wed, Aug 31, 2011, 16:32
MFL Draft recap
3I_AM_CANADIAN
      Sustainer
      ID: 01361448
      Wed, Aug 31, 2011, 16:38
RE 2: Don't show people that... they are all going to laugh at me!! ;)
4SwinganaMiss
      ID: 771116
      Wed, Aug 31, 2011, 17:34
IAC, do not read this article. It will depress you!
5Bonka
      Sustainer
      ID: 019742310
      Wed, Aug 31, 2011, 18:26
1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?

The only things I knew coming in to the draft, based on draft slot, last year, and scoring changes, were get RB value while there but don't force it, don't get caught with bad QBs, and DEs will go earlier than normal.

Gore presented good value at the end of the first and couldn't pass, as stud RBs are pretty important here. Then picking off WRs the next few rounds instead of forcing a RB is what ended up happening. I would have liked to grab a QB early, but not as early as they went. But once the round 5/6 turn came up and it was clear if I didn't grab a QB now, I'd likely not get anyone I wanted. Like I figured, 2 QBs went on that turn and I grabbed Stafford a round or two earlier than I would have liked, but I have no regrets.

IDPs I waited on more than in years past, except DE. I really wanted Tuck, and almost had him, but had to settle for Allen. I wanted to grab at least 1 elite DE this year and felt LBs could slide a bit since we can only start 3 max and people would be rostering less.

Not that it comes up much, but I did consider return points less than before as well, at least kick returns. With the kickoff changes, there will be many more touchbacks this year, limiting the upside of the more return based players. Guys doing punts are a bit more valuable.

2. What were your favorite picks? Which do you wish you could do over?

I don't really have favorite picks that stand out, at least not based on where I got them. I feel like I had an overall solid draft in those terms. I do like a two guys based on their potential to be absolute studs this year, IF they stay healthy. Those guys are Gore and Stafford. I believe both of them can each finish top 5 at their position with ease if they play a full season and don't lose vital members of their offense.

One guy I'm somewhat worried about is Lynch. Seattle is just bad. I mean...B A D. It's not him I'm worried about, it's the terrible offensive line and the anemic offense they're going to have. I wonder if I should have went with one of the other two guys I had looked at for that pick. Only time will tell. Luckily I drafted possibly three other RBs who can put up solid RB2 numbers for me.

3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?

Crazy 88s, Guru, IAC, Swing

That said, most of the teams look really close, and anything can happen. A large portion of being a good team is your in season roster management.

4. What surprised you most about the draft?

How quick we actually finished. I hope all RIFC are that fast in the future, but I doubt they will be.

Also how often IAC and Shortbus barely stole players out from under my nose. This is a list of things we were mad about right? Definitely not surprised.

5. If you could start over, would you do anything differently?

Probably not. It's hard to change things after the fact, because even if I'm not big on my Lynch pick, the rest of my draft would be completely changed if I didn't pick him there and I'm pretty happy with my draft overall.


On a side note, I hope I managed to steal a few guys from the damn Canadians as payback for ruining my plans a few times.
6I_AM_CANADIAN
      ID: 450482421
      Wed, Aug 31, 2011, 18:44
RE 4: (A single tear runs down my face).
7SwinganaMiss
      ID: 427542420
      Wed, Aug 31, 2011, 23:27
1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?
I normally go after 1 WR and 1 RB in the first two rounds, unless something else presents itself, so that went according to plan. I did intend to look for opportunity to pick a better QB earlier, but I didn't think I was getting the right price to make that call in any earlier round.

I spent much less time thinking beyond the first several rounds than I normally would. I visualized the first 4 rounds quite a bit, but didn't follow it through. For example, I had no forethought about any IDPs by the time the first DLs were disappearing. Shame on me. Even by the time I realized I should get that last Tier 1 DL, I felt compelled to take Tate and get a QB on that 8/9 turn.

2. What were your favorite picks? Which do you wish you could do over?
I am thrilled to have gotten Tate when I did (especially after Foster went down again). Wasn't so happy then, but for now I am. I'm happy w/ Ford--if he stays healthy and returns kicks he should outplay his ADP. I think Maualuga has the potential to do the same. I have mostly solid, yet unspectacular picks.

I realize more than ever how much I dislike drafting so close to the end. Too much goes on in 24 picks for me to be comfortable.
I mentioned taking the wrong Browns WR late. I am not too familiar w/ most of the IDPs I ended up with, so that could be a strength or a weakness. I am not too sure.I am nervous about Manning/Cutler combo. Could be disastrous.

3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?
I remember drafting beside IAC a couple years ago, and after the draft comparing our rosters and just feeling mortified about my own team. Despite what fftoday might say, I think his team looks good again. (Not sold on Freeman, but the rest looks very solid)

It's very hard to compare these teams, but to generalize--I wouldn't pick against the guys who have been in RIFC for multiple years in a row (Bonka, ShortBus, Guru in particular).

4. What surprised you most about the draft?
I could say speed, but everyone will say that. The early QB picks really threw me for a loop. There were RB/WR available in rounds 2-4 that I thought would be gone....mostly because of how many QBs has been taken. QBs I thought might be available in 2-4, were long gone.

5. If you could start over, would you do anything differently?
As mentioned above, I would've thought about mid-round strategy more. I had all the position rankings in front of me, but never developed a plan about what would give me the most advantage.
Also mentioned above, I might've taken a slot closer to the middle. 4 and 5 were still available. I could see where that could've helped me out. Not to mention the Foster hammy that will have me stressing out for the next month or more.
8judy
      Leader
      ID: 7771722
      Thu, Sep 01, 2011, 00:02
The MFL Draft recap analysis.

Last year the MFL folks ranked my draft class at the bottom and pronounced my drafted team likewise:

After such a pathetic draft grade, coach judy is motivated to prove to the league that their picks will overachieve and bring home the trophy.

Needless to say I did just that, with very few significant changes from the original draft list.

So, being ranked #14 again causes no alarms to go off. More details per the format suggested later when I have some time to think about my team!
9youngroman
      ID: 56523304
      Thu, Sep 01, 2011, 13:52
1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?
basic strategy was to lock up 2 RBs as soon as possible, maybe even in the first 2 rounds. fill out offense starters until round 6/7, then get some top LBs and DBs. wait for kicker and DL until the last 5 rounds.
always look at the bye-weeks to not have too many players with the same bye at the same position.
avoid already banged up players, they aren't worth the risk-reward even if available 2 rounds later than they should.

basically I executed as planned. the 2nd RB was round 4, not round 2. IDPs were rounds 6, 7, 12 and 14. DL and K were rounds 20+.

2. What were your favorite picks? Which do you wish you could do over?
looking now at the draft I wish I had taken my first IDPs in round 8 and 9. I would have gotten either the same players or players with equal value. problem is that I had no idea which offense player to take. most likely i would have taken a WR or TE too high. Percy Harvin at 3.08 looks to be early, but look at the other receivers in Minnesota and McNabb can only throw a lot to him.

overall I like how the draft went and the order how I filled my roster. Based on my current knowledge I would plan do draft with a similar strategy in future years.

3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?
I haven't looked too much at other teams. it was interesting to see that some managers started picking backups before they started filling their IDPs. some managers took DL'ers much earlier than LB/DB. it needs to be seen which strategy works out better than others. I won't mention names, because successful teams are not drafted, they are assembled from the waiver wire. just look at 4 of the first 5 players I drafted last year (Randy Moss, Ryan Mathews, Steve Smith, Brent Celek)

4. What surprised you most about the draft?
I said it earlier and I repeat myself: the quickness of the draft and that a lot of QBs went earlier than I thought. Even I am guilty taking Brees at 2.08. compared to how early QBs went, I was surprised that the IDPs went a lot later than I thought. I was also surprised that so many DL were drafted that early.

most of these reasons did not change my draft strategy, so I got not caught on the wrong foot. at least I hope so.

5. If you could start over, would you do anything differently?
as said before: don't pick my 2 first IDPs that early.
10The Beezer
      Dude
      ID: 191202817
      Thu, Sep 01, 2011, 19:31
1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?

With the #5 slot, I planned to either take one of my top 4 RBs or Andre Johnson and then follow up with best value available for the first quarter of the draft. I am a big fan of getting studs at as many positions as possible. I knew I wanted to grab at least 1 elite DL (and 2 if the opportunity presented itself) once the first one went off the board or when they looked like the top value. Same for my DB1 and TE.

I think I was pretty successful. I was drafting next to a legend in this game, so I was nervous. That "Guru" guy ain't too shabby either. :) By my count, I should have an edge on most teams at 9 of the 15 starter spots (RB1, WR1-3, TE, PK, DL1-2, DB1) and should be in the neighborhood at 5 others. I'll let you guess what the 1 is that is way behind. :)

2. What were your favorite picks? Which do you wish you could do over?

I like just about all of them. Going for a less obvious one, I think Jason Hill could be a real value for me. I wouldn't redo any of them.

3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?

Usual disclaimers apply - no one lost the title this past week. Teams that jump out at me include Guru, russelldl, IAC, and my doppelganger Bonka.

4. What surprised you most about the draft?

Besides the speed, I didn't see even a mediocre pick until round 4. Usually I will see at least one head-scratcher per round, but that was not the case. Should be the most competitive league I have ever been a part of.

5. If you could start over, would you do anything differently?

No. And here are three reasons why I'm not sweating my QBs: Michael Vick, Michael Vick, and Donovan McNabb. Those were my first quarterback picks in 2005, 2006, and 2010 when I won in RIFC leagues. It will be a fascinating experiment either way.
11judy
      Leader
      ID: 7771722
      Thu, Sep 01, 2011, 19:40
1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?
My #1 strategy was to grab Shady McCoy, but that did not work right out of the chute as YR stole him right ahead of me. So I went to Plan B: the best, most steady, reliable point scorer for WR -- Andre Johnson -- CHECK!
Then I wanted a top 5 QB -- Rivers -- CHECK!
Then I wanted a strong RB not in an RBBC situation -- Ingram -- CHECK!
Then I started looking around for top RB/WR. Took RB Mathews -- not sure that will work out…

And then I really looked at the points/player and it seemed a no brainer to begin picking up IDP, so I grabbed Mayo and Timmons who are expected to average more points than the available WR/RB -- CHECK!

Then I filled in my lineup with WR/RB/TE who were ranked a bit lower than the #1’s, BUT were poised for breakout years. M Thomas, J Cook, D Woodie, E Sanders, A Brown, T Young. GOOD GRIEF THEY ARE YOUNG!!! CHECK!

Then I went back to IDPS for the points: Babin, Delmas, McCourty, Miller, Manning. CHECK!

Then I just filled in some gaps with BPA: Henery, S Smith, Douglas, Sheard. CHECK!

Yes, I did what I wanted to do.


2. What were your favorite picks? Which do you wish you could do over?

A Johnson
Rivers
Ingram -- expecting awesome things from him
Mayo, Timmons -- first one to pick an IDP, got two good ones
Woodie -- to remember my buddy
The other young ‘uns: Helu, Cook, Sanders, Brown, Young, Miller , Sheard, Pierre-Paul, Henery (LOOK AT ‘EM ALL!! YIPES!!)
My DB -- Delmas, McCourty, Manning

Actually, I like almost everyone, but I usually do like my team -- in the beginning at least. I try to go for consistency rather than flash!


3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?

I don’t do that as it is a crap shoot of luck who does well when. Yah just hope your team is consistent enough to weather any storm tossed at it by the other guy.


4. What surprised you most about the draft?
I liked the speed, but it was almost too fast. It was really intense and fortunately, I have the free time to stay with it. There absolutely needs to be a method to shut your Q down when you are working on it. Sometimes I almost did not get my Q adjusted before a computer run happened.


5. If you could start over, would you do anything differently?

I think I might not have taken Mathews in round 4 (I actually preferred Maclin, but there was russelldl snatching him…), but instead, gone for Beanie Wells instead...It was at the end of a computer run and I should have paused and thought about it first.
12Bonka
      Sustainer
      ID: 019742310
      Thu, Sep 01, 2011, 20:53
Hate to break it to you Judy, but Ingram is in a RBBC. I own the guy in multiple leagues and he should be good, but he's still splitting with Thomas, at least for now. That said, he should be the TD scorer out of the bunch.
13I_AM_CANADIAN
      ID: 450482421
      Thu, Sep 01, 2011, 20:56
RE 12: I was going to say that same thing (minus the owning part), but figured maybe she knew something I didn't (which seemed very possible).
14I_AM_CANADIAN
      ID: 450482421
      Thu, Sep 01, 2011, 21:09
This news item makes me laugh:

"Saints K Garrett Hartley is out at least six weeks with a hip flexor."

This is exactly why everyone should avoid kickers early the draft, they really don't offer THAT much upside, yet if you wasted a mid-round pick on one then he goes and pulls a hammy, a glute or something, then your really "kicking yourself". I noticed some of the lower leagues were having some pretty intense discussions on the subject.
15Bonka
      Sustainer
      ID: 019742310
      Thu, Sep 01, 2011, 21:11
Kickers are a joke, they need to be dumped from fantasy football. I usually take one in the 2nd to last round, as many people do. Try to get someone highly ranked, if not, whatever. I picked up Janikowski last year in the first few weeks and he provided me with great points most of the season.
16Judy
      ID: 54203110
      Thu, Sep 01, 2011, 22:00
12/13 yeah, but I am betting that it will be a 75/25 split in favor of my guy and I do expect him to get the GL. Not trusting P Thomas until I see it...
So maybe I should have written RBbc (note lower case letters)!!!!!
17Letter_J
      ID: 27749245
      Fri, Sep 02, 2011, 07:31
Re 12, 13, and 16,

And don't forget Sproles, who is the third-down back. As the season wears on, Ingram - the more talented back - should get the lions share of the carries, but it's full bore RBBC for now.

GL with it Judy! :-)
18Judy
      ID: 54203110
      Fri, Sep 02, 2011, 09:53
12,13,16,17

That's one reason I think our offensive flex should be RB/WR/TE. You get to bet on your RB2/3 rather than your WR2/3.
19Frick
      ID: 387512315
      Fri, Sep 02, 2011, 09:58
That has been discussed in the past and the main argument against it is, RB become way to valuable. The current line-up lets people take different positions in the first round besides RB. If people had the option to start 3 RBs, you would see nothing except running backs for the first 2-3 rounds. I like the strategy of not having to go RB/RB in a draft and being able to make it work. The option to start a 3rd RB makes those strategies almost worthless.
20Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Fri, Sep 02, 2011, 10:53
1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?
When I had the chance to select my draft position first, I decided to focus on Vick as my top pick. Vick may be the sucker pick of round 1 – if he fails to deliver like he did last year, or misses too many games – but as the one manager who has “immunity” (i.e., I get to come back regardless of how crappy my team does), I’m probably better suited to handle the risk. You can all thank me later.

After the Vick pick, my strategy was simply to think and react. I wish I had the time to plan out a more thoughtful approach, but after many years of drafting in this format, I’m pretty much working by feel.

I may have spent more time than most looking at the potential impact of the IDP scoring changes. Some players seemed to score better using TFL and QBH than they were ranked on traditional lists. I didn’t look much deeper than to gather stats on TFL and QBH for 2010 and identify players that excelled in those cats – so if those stats tend not to persist from year to year, I may have put too much credence in 2010 results. We’ll all learn more about the impact of those stats as the season unfolds.

In past years, I’ve tried to find guys with return (punt, kickoff) potential, but I didn’t do that as much this year. First, it’s hard to discern who will have those duties on many teams. And then there is the change in kickoff rules, which will presumably reduce kickoff return yardage dramatically.

2. What were your favorite picks? Which do you wish you could do over?
No favorites, no regrets. There were a few times I second guessed myself, but every pick I made had a rationale at the time. I would like to have more depth at RB, but by the time I was ready to work on that, the options all seemed too speculative. So my RB “depth” is all handcuff-related.

3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?
I actually don’t pay much attention to the other teams. Sight unseen, it’s hard not to like Bonka, IAC, and ShortBus, who seem to finish well each year.

4. What surprised you most about the draft?
In hindsight, I should have anticipated the higher demand for DLs, who were drafted much earlier this year. I expected some of that, but not the the degree it manifested. Just goes to show that you were all thinking!

5. If you could start over, would you do anything differently?
Probably – because I have more experience now. But so do you.
22Electroman
      Donor
      ID: 010833614
      Sat, Sep 03, 2011, 06:39
1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned? I have struggled in other years with the RB position in the draft, so I wanted to be solid there. I think I succeeded with AP/LawFirm/Benson. Other than that, I went with BPA IMO.


2. What were your favorite picks? Which do you wish you could do over? I am happy with AP. Cedric Benson falling is one that I think he should have gone earlier, but with the uncertainty of his situation, he fell. I felt solid with my 2 RB's that I could take that risk. Even though the "rate my draft" guys didn't like the pick, I hope Amendola does what I wrote in my rationale. Do over, Hardesty sticks out, could have waited. Ask me during the season, I will tell you more.

3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?
Sounds redundant in other posts, but you have to like the guys that are here every year. Youngroman also, really like McCoy, think that he might be the #1 back this year with his pass catching ability.

4. What surprised you most about the draft? I was surprised how early DL went. It may be the new scoring, but I picked a DL early last year, and regretted it. So I was not pulled into that.

5. If you could start over, would you do anything differently? Too early to tell. With the speed of the draft, had no time to dwell on any picks.
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