Posted by: Kyle
- Sustainer [052753312] Fri, Aug 03, 2012, 15:50
I've taken over a keeper league team where I have to forfeit a draft pick, based on the previous draft, in order keep the player. I only get to keep 2 players, and I've narrowed it down to 6 players to keep.
The league's scoring and set up is a little screwy. Here's the details.
And here are my players with their draft pick from last years draft. Remember I have to forfeit the round before they were draft (so second rounders=firsts) in order to keep the player. First rounders can be kept, but apparently my team dropped the first rounder from last year (Jamaal Charles, I'm guessing)
Calvin Johnson, WR, Round 02, Pick 06 Frank Gore, RB, Round 03, Pick 05 Matt Schaub, QB, Round 05, Pick 05 Ahmad Bradshaw, RB, Round 06, Pick 06 Julio Jones, WR, Round 07, Pick 05 Aaron Hernandez, TE, Undrafted
Now I'm all but certain I'm going to keep Megatron because I've never owned him in a fantasy league and he seems to be a beast in this format (2 pts a reception and 8 points for a 40 yard TD, that's his game right there)
Because of the 2 pts a reception Julio is an interesting prospect to keep and only giving up a 6th rounder is nice. Hernandez is also interesting since I would give up my last round pick for him. Schaub seems like too much of a risk in this format, but really I can't be certain. And Bradshaw and Gore are interesting because they would lock up my only RB position (I'll be drafting WRs early and often) and Bradshaw wouldn't cost a ton with a 5th round pick.
1
TB
ID: 451028614 Sat, Aug 04, 2012, 01:45
How many teams are in the league and can you see last years draft results? If so, I am curious if there was an early run on QB and WR. Gore in the 3rd and Bradshaw in the 6th tells me there were plenty of RB available after the first few rounds. You should post defensive scoring too. You can probably see the scoring from last year and get an idea where the top IDP were getting drafted.
Based on the info you provided, I think I'd rank them in this order:
Calvin Johnson, WR, Round 02, Pick 06 Aaron Hernandez, TE, Undrafted Julio Jones, WR, Round 07, Pick 05 Ahmad Bradshaw, RB, Round 06, Pick 06 Frank Gore, RB, Round 03, Pick 05 Matt Schaub, QB, Round 05, Pick 05
2
Bonka Sustainer
ID: 019742310 Sat, Aug 04, 2012, 11:13
Calvin and Hernandez, no questions asked. Julio would be good too, but in a draft that size getting Hernandez at the end is insane value. Considering anyone outside of those 3 should land you in a mental health institute.
3
GoatLocker Leader
ID: 060151121 Sun, Aug 05, 2012, 15:44
Agree with what TB and Bonka said. Calvin and Hernandez is the way to go.
4
Slizz
ID: 396121611 Sun, Aug 05, 2012, 17:08
Your goal is to win...you take Julio as your other keeper.
The argument for Hernandez is solely because of draft "value"...but who are you going to be looking at in the 6th round???
If both players had you surrendering a 6th round pick, who would you keep?
I'm guessing Jones. He plays in a dome minimum 9x/year, will likely face single coverage, and has that game breaking ability Hernandez doesn't have.
If your not confident in your draft ability, keep Hernandez. But rounds 6-on you pretty much choose from flawed players anyways....
5
TB
ID: 451028614 Mon, Aug 06, 2012, 03:11
By my calculations Hernandez outscored Jones by 3.3 points last season in those scoring rules. +50 for 25 more receptions -4.9 for 49 less receiving yards -6 for 1 less TD -15 for 5 less 40 yard receptions -20 for 4 less 40 yard TDs -.8 for 8 less rushing yards.
Both could be looking at an improved year and both will be gone before the 6th round. I personally gave the slight edge to Hernandez because you do get to pick someone in the 6th round like an Ahmad Bradshaw. I don't think you can go wrong keeping either of them as your 2nd keeper.
6
Kyle Sustainer
ID: 052753312 Mon, Aug 06, 2012, 11:06
After some deliberation, I'm going to go with Megatron and Hernandez.
Megatron projects to be the #1 overall player in a 2PPR league. Hernandez as a last round pick is way too much value, and while I played with Jones, I could draft a really good player in the 6th round, and in the last round I won't be able to get any value besides a kicker. It also helps that I'll be able to keep Hernandez in the 2nd to last round next year, which right now looks like insane value (over Julio who would be a 5th rounder and losing value)
Thanks for the help and I'll keep you all abreast of how the draft goes in a few weeks.
7
Slizz
ID: 396121611 Mon, Aug 06, 2012, 11:11
Good point by TB...but you know what you're getting with Hernandez...you dont know what the ceiling is with Jones.
You know the floor: -3.3 points (basically even with Hernandez).
I'm a bigger risk taker and think Jones will be in line for a bigger season by about 50 points. I think he has that classic 2nd year breakout season for wideouts...
Again, it comes down to how valuable is that sixth round pick to you???
Also, consider who is a better keeper for 2013???
My money is on Jones again.
8
Great One
ID: 2431114 Mon, Aug 06, 2012, 11:15
I'd want Julio too. Great upside.
9
Slizz
ID: 396121611 Mon, Aug 06, 2012, 12:06
Best of luck...downside to that decision: Hernandez will never be more than a 4th-6th round pick whereas Jones has that potential to be a top wideout.
You might end up with Marcedes Lewis the following year and Jones will eventually push Roddy White out of the #1 slot.
I wouldn't chance that.
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