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0 Subject: RIFC 2012: Draft Rationales

Posted by: Guru
- [330592710] Sun, Aug 26, 2012, 23:03

This thread will be for managers in the 2012 RotoGuru Invitational Football Challenge to provide the rationale for each pick.

Here are the ground rules:
1. Only managers in this league should post here. If you want to provide feedback (either from other league managers, or from those not in the league), put it in the discussion thread. (Non-conforming discussion in this thread will be deleted.)

2. Please keep the pick rationales in the same order as the draft. We'll attempt to keep this thread 2 rounds behind the actual draft. With the lag, most comments should not have an impact on the draft in progress. However, if there are aspects of your pick that you feel need to be kept under wraps, feel free to protect that information. In particular, please avoid mentioning the names of any players who are still undrafted at that time of the post.

If possible, please post your (2 round lagged) comments at the time you make each pick. If you are not ready to post at that time, then create a "placeholder" so that the next person is able to go ahead in sequence. When your post is ready, simply post it in the draft discussion thread and a moderator can copy it over.

If your rationale is due and intervening placeholders have not been inserted, please insert them before posting your rationale. Simply post in this format:

for Guru
1.14 Rob Gronkowski, TE, NE

3. Once the draft is over, each manager will also be encouraged to provide a general draft recap, at which time you can discuss your overall strategy, mention any undisclosed factors, comment on what worked out well and what didn't, etc. A separate thread will be set up for that.

The general format should be:
1.01 Ray Rice, RB, Bal
Several sentences of rationale.

As part of your first round rationale, please comment on your selection of draft sequence.
Only the 50 most recent replies are currently shown. Click on this text to display hidden posts as well.
[Lengthy or complex threads may require a slight delay before updating.]
271Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Sun, Sep 02, 2012, 18:24
for Beezer
21.05 Michael Floyd, WR, ARI
With Skelton being named the starter, what's to prevent Floyd from being the Torrey Smith of 2012? He's talented, he's got Larry Fitzgerald opposite him to worry the defense, and they're going to have to throw a ton. Sounds like the perfect pick in round 21 to me!
272 Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Sun, Sep 02, 2012, 18:25
for russelldl
21.06 Lavonte David, LB, TB
I usually end up drafting extra IDPs late in drafts because the talent level is usually much better than the offensive lottery tickets still floating around. As a rookie, David is a bit of an upside pick. But in 27 college games he put up 285 tackles and 11.5 sacks. And they say he's looking good throughout camp. I'll take that. Also, I may not need him as an IDP but he's a nice insurance policy against injury and a potential trade chip.
273 Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Sun, Sep 02, 2012, 18:25
for Frick
21.07 Javon Ringer, RB, Ten
A handcuff to Chris Johnson, I also have had Ringer in other deep leagues. He has shown himself to be an average back if Johnson is out.
274 Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Sun, Sep 02, 2012, 18:26
for TD
21.08 Darian Stewart, DB, StL
Stewart is my 3rd DB to add depth and fill in on bye weeks. He had good fantasy numbers in his first two seasons in the league.
275Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Sun, Sep 02, 2012, 18:26
for Loki
21.09-Kevin Boss, TE, Kan
Boss had a bad year after his trade from the NYGs due to a multitude of injuries. He is healthy, on a new team and I think he will regain the form that he showed with the Giants making him a good pick for TE2.
276Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Sun, Sep 02, 2012, 18:27
for Wiggs
21.10 Ronnie Brown, RB, SD

Just a handcuff for Ryan Matthews if needed.
277Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Sun, Sep 02, 2012, 18:27
for youngroman
21.11 Scott Chandler, TE, BUF
similar to the situation at QB, I also looked for a backup TE a long time ago but there was nobody out there. I waited and waited until I felt a TE was worth to pick. Chandler has potential to put up bigger numbers than Gonzalez, but I don't know if he will show this on the field this season. you can't expect more at this time of the draft. There aren't any sleepers left. these players are now named gambles.
278Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Sun, Sep 02, 2012, 18:28
for Holt
21.12 Danieal Manning, S, HOU
Manning has been one of the best KO returners in recent years. If he doesn't return kicks this year then I might have to look for other options. If he does do some returning(and it looks like they are leaning that way) then this is a pretty good pick.
279Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Sun, Sep 02, 2012, 18:29
for TB
21.13 Brandon Weeden, CLE, QB
I really botched-up getting a back-up QB, especially because I knew how everyone drafts back-ups early. 9 bench spots is actually ridiculous for a league that only starts 15 players. I've seen players drafted that won't be drafted in keeper leagues with smaller benches. We really need to crank up the starters by another 3 or drop 4 bench spots. So anyway, way back at 12.02, I thought about drafting Schaub instead of Leshoure. Then in the 14th round I almost pulled the trigger on Wilson, but was hoping he would fall more. That's pretty much been my story with several positions this draft; uncomfortable with taking a player in a certain spot when I see better value elsewhere and then finding myself drafting a much lower talent level at that position rounds later. I really need Romo to stay healthy or I could be in big trouble.
280Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Sun, Sep 02, 2012, 18:30
21.14 Rob Bironas, K, Ten
Week 11 bye gives me the maximum flexibility in managing my kicker slot (without carrying a 2nd). Good accuracy and leg strength. If he gets the opportunities, he should convert.

22.01 Bernard Scott, RB, Cin
A flier for my RB5. Starts the season with a broken hand, but who cares?
281Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Sun, Sep 02, 2012, 18:30
for TB
22.02 Dawan Landry, JAC, S
I wanted a third DB for depth/bye week replacement. Landry gets a lot of tackle opportunities and is a solid player. I still need a kicker and just realized I only have two more picks to go. I don't know why I was thinking 3 more picks. I also see that Holt just took Alex Green, which I thought was the pick I had at the top of my queue for this round. That certainly does make my last two picks easier.
282Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Sun, Sep 02, 2012, 18:30
for Holt
22.03 Alex Green, RB, GB

He may end up with starting job in GB at some point. Will he be on my squad when that happens? That is the question. Kind of surprised he is left sitting here in rd 22.
283Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Sun, Sep 02, 2012, 18:31
for youngroman
22.04 Jordan Babineaux, DB, TEN
after my last pick I researched the available DBs because I wanted to take my #3 with this pick. as soon as I found Dawan Landry I stopped searching because I had my guy. a few hours later Holt expires and Landry was queued up by someone else. So I had to dig again into the DB pool and search for someone else. I already marked Babineaux a few hours ago but was not sure about him. some depth charts have him only as a #2, others as a #1. so called experts saw him as a good defender worth newly signed 5 million contract. I don't know what to expect here. if he starts and gets a similar number of tackles than last year until he shared time with Chris Hope in the last few games. if he does not start he is waiver wire fodder.
284Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Sun, Sep 02, 2012, 18:37
for Wiggs
22.05 Golden Tate,WR, Sea

Big upside- back up WR
285Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Sun, Sep 02, 2012, 18:38
for Loki
22.06-Nate Burleson, WR, Det
Burleson is listed after Calvin Johnson on Detroitís depth chart, and Stafford will have to find someone to pass to when Johnson is unable to escape from double coverage.
286 Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Sun, Sep 02, 2012, 18:38
for TD
22.07 Alex Henery, K, Phi
I try to pick a kicker when the players similar to those I am choosing will be available as free agents during season. Henery had a solid rookie season with the Eagles. He should have plenty opportunities to score because of the strength of the Eagles offense.
287 Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Sun, Sep 02, 2012, 18:39
for Frick
22.08 Nate Kaeding, K, SD
I guess this pick actually gives me a complete roster. Kaeding should be in a prolific offense so he should get plenty of chances. He also kicks for Norv, so who knows what will happen in San Diego.
288 Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Sun, Sep 02, 2012, 18:39
for russelldl
22.09 Emmanuel Sanders, WR, Pit
Sanders has decent upside in that he'll be the slot receiver in PIT, he's only one injury away from starting, and the steelers are really thin at wideout. Add to it the facts that he's been a contributor in the past, he'll return some kicks and there's no great TE to steal those targets.
289Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Sun, Sep 02, 2012, 18:39
for Beezer
22.10 Dexter McCluster, WR, KC
Total shot in the dark based on how he has been used in the preseason. No question in his ability to make big plays, it's whether he will get used. If the preseason was just an experiment and his usage is like past seasons, he will not be on my roster for long.
290Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Sun, Sep 02, 2012, 18:40
for Swinganamiss
22.11 James Jones, WR, GB
Lots of weapons in GB. Jones may or may not make a splash. He had 600+ yards and 7 TDs last year. Jennings was recently injured, Driver is just plain old, and Cobb is more of a threat as a returner. If Jones can get some time on the field, he can make plays. Something on Rotoworld suggested he could even be traded to the Dolphins. Not sure if that would be a good thing or a bad thing.
291Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Sun, Sep 02, 2012, 18:41
for gurudan
22.12 Michael Johnson, DL, Cin
fills my last DL spot
292Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Sun, Sep 02, 2012, 18:41
for Jzapps
22.13 Jason Hanson, K, Det
293Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Sun, Sep 02, 2012, 18:42
for Bonka
22.14 Justin Tucker, K, BAL

I decided to take my kicker here since no RBs/WRs stood out that I really needed to grab. I'll wait until the very last pick in the draft to get one of those. Tucker won the job over Cundiff on a team that generally is a good situation for kicker scoring.

23.01 Erin Henderson, LB, MIN

Just taking a shot on one of the remaining LBs who could put up good numbers as a 3 down backer. He'll have to do pretty well to keep his spot in the first week or two.
294Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Sun, Sep 02, 2012, 18:42
for Jzapps
23.02 Dallas Clark, TE, TB
295Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Sun, Sep 02, 2012, 18:43
for gurudan
23.03 Graham Harrell, QB, GB
handcuffs Rodgers
296Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Sun, Sep 02, 2012, 18:44
for Swinganamiss
23.04 Janoris Jenkins, DB, STL
Last round my queue actually had Dawan Landry at the top and Jones second. Maybe I lucked out that Landry was taken, as I like everything I read about Jenkins. He should start at CB. He has a reasonable chance to get PR and/or KR duties too. Not sure if it happens, but if it did, then he can be this year's Patrick Peterson. Even if not, he could stick on the team.
297Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Sun, Sep 02, 2012, 18:44
for Beezer
23.05 Shayne Graham, PK, HOU

Houston's offense can put up some points and he has a later bye than a lot of guys. That's good enough for me.
298 Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Sun, Sep 02, 2012, 18:45
for russelldl
23.06 Sebastian Janikowski, K, Oak
First of all, I love being able to pull for the Big Fat Kicker. Usually I just take the best available kicker in the last round, but considering my draft spot that would have basically meant no better than 9th best kicker. I knew that the guy I wanted with my last pick would still be there so I went kicker one round early to get the Fat One.
299 Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Sun, Sep 02, 2012, 18:45
for Frick
23.07 Joe McKnight, RB, NYJ
He has some value based on his return prospects. I drafted him before I heard about the news that he and USC were being investigated by the NCAA again. At least Reggie Bush was a difference maker in college. I don't think the same could be said of McKnight. Here's hoping that USC wins the National Championship, then receives the death penalty.
300 Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Sun, Sep 02, 2012, 18:46
for TD
23.08 Josh Cribbs, WR, Cle
Cribbs one of the few playmakers on the Browns. Even if he doesn't play much at WR, he has a chance to score points returning kicks and can be used on bye weeks.
301Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Sun, Sep 02, 2012, 18:46
for loki
23.09-Josh Gordon, WR, Cle-I would have preferred a RB here, but there was not one remaining worth even a 24th round pick. Gordon has sleeper potential.
302 Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Sun, Sep 02, 2012, 18:47
for Wiggs
23.10 James Starks, RB, GB
I took starks here hoping he may play at some point this year and if he does it might be a nice bump going into the play offs if I make them. I really didnt need anyone here so I took a flyer on a guy with upside.
303Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Sun, Sep 02, 2012, 18:47
for youngroman
23.11 David Nelson, WR, BUF
because of bye-weeks I would have only 3 available WRs in round 5 and 11. Week 11 is far away, but I need a plan for week 5. I know there are waivers, but with the new blind bid system you don't know how high some hot WRs are valued by others. From todays point of view the old system was more predictable because you only had a maximum of 13 players to go before you are up and there are at least some at other positions so putting a few WRs in you queue got you one. especially when the waiver order is reset the first few weeks.
this is all not the case this year so I'll better take one now and if he does not work I can exchange him against a more targeted receier come week 5.

speaking of Nelson: his yardage may stay around 600yds. but the additional value are the above average TD numbers he puts up, thanks to his size. If he can continue being a red-zone threat he may do fine for me.
304Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Sun, Sep 02, 2012, 18:48
for Holt
23.12 Dan Bailey, K, DAL
I decided to draft a kicker after all. Bailey is a kicker.
305Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Sun, Sep 02, 2012, 18:48
for TB
23.13 Rod Streater, OAK, WR
This was supposed to be Alex Green, my Benson handcuff. Instead I will take a flier on the undrafted WR who is catching (mostly) everything Palmer throws his way. The Raiders have a lot of speedy, young receivers who all seem to get dinged up. Unless one of my starters get hurt or he earns a starting role and is producing, he shouldn't get much, if any, playing time on my roster.
306Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Sun, Sep 02, 2012, 18:49
23.14 Rex Grossman, QB, Was
Backup to RG3. In a disaster scenario, I thought Grossman might be as serviceable as the few starting QBs who remain undrafted.

24.01 Brandon Tate, WR, Cin
WR2/3 on Cincy, who may also handle KR/PR duties. A late round flier.
307Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Sun, Sep 02, 2012, 20:20
for TB
24.02 Matt Bryant, ATL, PK
This is my kicker. There are many like him, but this one is mine. It is my fantasy team. I must master my kicker position as I must master my roster...
308Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Sun, Sep 02, 2012, 20:21
for Holt
24.03 James Harrison, LB, PIT
Sounds like he'll be ready for week 1 (but probably not at full strength). Harrison missed some games last year so his stats were down but he ranked 11 overall in points per game for LB in this league (9.8 per game).
309Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Sun, Sep 02, 2012, 20:22
for youngroman
24.04 Lawrence Tynes, K, NYG
every year I am thinking about taking a kicker in the last round of the draft or shortly before gameday on Sunday. If an olympic runner would have been available here I would have taken him. this was not possible because:
1) silver medalist Jeff Demps was put on IR by the Patriots
2) 3-time gold medalist Usain Bolt, The Legend, was not available at MFL

so I had to take a kicker. since they are all a dime a dozen I took one on an offense that should score a lot and that also has a late bye-week. this way I can observe the kicker market early on and then take a similar scoring one that already had his bye.
there is hope that there will be a lot of TDs from from Eli to Cruz with an XP from Tynes. this would be an automatic 11pts for my team, no matter how deep the throw was.
310 Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Mon, Sep 03, 2012, 09:15
for Wiggs
24.05 Devery Henderson, WR, NO
Slim Pickings at this point- took a guy that had drew brees throwing to him. hope he can catch a couple td passes.
311Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Mon, Sep 03, 2012, 09:15
for Loki
24.06 Adrian Claybon, DL, Ta
He was the best I could find for DL2.
312 Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Mon, Sep 03, 2012, 09:16
for TD
24.07 Tamba Hali, LB, KC
I should have used this pick for a 2nd DL, but I forgot we needed 2 in this league. Hali is suspended for the first game, but should be productive after that. He is a pass rushing 3-4 LB who had 12 sacks last season.
313 Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Mon, Sep 03, 2012, 09:16
for Frick
24.08 Stephen Hill, WR, NYJ
Without going to the league site, it took me a some time to remember who this was. I think Hill is a wide receiver. Honestly, if you are still reading these trying to decide on a draft pick, i fear for your draft.
314 Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Mon, Sep 03, 2012, 09:17
for russelldl
24.09 Kyle Arrington, DB, NE
I wanted a backup DB and I figured Arrington would last until the final round. 88 tackles, 15 passes defended and 7 picks equals a solid backup.
315Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Mon, Sep 03, 2012, 09:17
for Beezer
24.10 DeAngelo Hall, DB, WAS
I still needed a flex IDP so I grabbed Hall as the top guy left on my board at DB or LB. He's a playmaker yet inconsistent so I might get tired of that pretty quick. Fortunately, we have a waiver wire so that's not an issue.
316Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Mon, Sep 03, 2012, 09:18
for Swinganamiss
24.11 Vick Ballard, RB, IND
Happy to throw one more RB dart. Who knows how much Ballard plays this season. Maybe he starts at some point, or maybe he's buried on the depth chart. For the chance he starts, I will take him here over a backup TE, a 4th LB, or a 3rd DE.
317Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Mon, Sep 03, 2012, 09:19
for gurudan
24.12 Knowshon Moreno, RB, Den

Queue was set for backups at three positions.
318Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Mon, Sep 03, 2012, 09:20
for Jzapps
24.13 Bradie James, LB, Hou
319Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Mon, Sep 03, 2012, 09:20
for Bonka
24.14 Mike Tolbert, RB, CAR

Last year I grabbed Patrick Peterson in this round, and well...that's pretty much one of the best 24th round picks in this league ever, if not the best. While I'd love to repeat that, it's not going to happen. Tolbert isn't going to do a whole lot unless JStew or DWill get hurt. Just a lottery ticket here.
320jzapps
      ID: 5749721
      Sat, Sep 08, 2012, 21:01
FYI: During this whole draft I was on vacation and drafting with an IPHONE. I can't say I could really strategize too much but I did the best I could.

1.02 2 Foster, Arian HOU RB : I knew would have one of bes RB's for this year. Running and Receiving yards in a run heavy team.

2.13 27 White, Roddy ATL WR : I believe this is Roddy White's last year as a WR1. Matt Ryan goes to him when the game is on the line.

3.13 41 Gates, Antonio SDC TE : Gates is healthy and has the most experience with Rivers.

4.13 55 Hillis, Peyton KCC RB : Hillis will get me goal line TD's. He will be a good matchup play.

5.02 58 Green-Ellis, BenJarvus CIN RB : I wanted to secure another starter with a run heavy team that run's the ball most of the time at the goal line.

6.13 83 Wayne, Reggie IND WR : Reggie had a relatively good year with horrible qb's last year. Luck will go to him often for sure. Wanted to secure a another Primary receiver on a team.

7.02 86 Williams, Ryan ARI RB : Beannie Wells ... do i have to say anything else. I take a hurt R Williams over a healthy Beannie any day. R W will be the main RB in Arizona.

8.13 111 Freeman, Josh TBB QB : I wanted RG3 but he was taken just before. I believe he will bounce back and be a top 10 QB this year.

9.02 114 Little, Greg CLE WR : Another WR1 on his team. He still got 60 + catches with a horrible QB.

10.13 139 Cushing, Brian HOU LB : I love cushing. Looking for a top 10 LB.

11.02 142 Campbell, Calais ARI DE : I had Calais last year and he is a beast.

12.13 167 Chancellor, Kam SEA S : Chancellor will build on his rookie season and has more experience now.

13.02 170 Amendola, Danny STL WR : Probable the only reliable guy Bradford can throw to.

14.13 195 Mincey, Jeremy JAC DE : Jax D is strong this year. Mincey should be top 10 this year.

15.02 198 Conner, Kavell IND LB : Not sure why i took this guy...

16.13 223 Palmer, Carson OAK QB : Good matchup play when i will need to plug him in.

17.02 226 Rhodes, Kerry ARI S

18.13 251 Jacobs, Brandon SFO RB : Prob will have some value if Gore goes down.

19.02 254 Manningham, Mario SFO WR : I think Manningham will come out strong in the 2nd half when Moss slows down.

20.13 279 Tebow, Tim NYJ QB : TEEEEEBOW.

21.02 282 Carter, Delone IND RB : ...

22.13 307 Hanson, Jason DET PK : Best kicker available.

23.02 310 Clark, Dallas TBB TE : I think Clark will have a Tony G type of year.

24.13 335 James, Bradie HOU LB : Needed one more LB.
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