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Subject: RIFC 2016: Rationale Collection Thread
Posted by: Guru
- [330592710] Sun, Aug 28, 2016, 15:41
We'll use the same process for collecting rationales as last year.
You have a choice. You may either post your rationale in the comment area next to the associated pick on the MFL draft page,
- or -
you may post each rationale in this thread. Anything posted here will "trump" anything posted on MFL.
Regardless, each rationale is due no later than two rounds in arrears. I understand that, especially when queues are used, staying within two rounds will be difficult. However, please try to stay relatively current.
I will set up a master thread for all Rationales that will be organized in the proper draft sequence. So don't worry about the sequence here. |
| Only the 50 most recent replies are currently shown. Click on this text to display hidden posts as well. |
| 98 | Philly Busters
ID: 336352414
Sat, Sep 03, 2016, 21:29
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19.12 Calvin Pryor
Had 1 last starting spot to fill (besides K) in the defensive backfield. Everyone left at DB at this point starts to look the same. 60-80 tackles, 1-4 Ints, a sack or 2 thrown in for a few of them. Queued up 3 with 4 picks to go in front of me and Pryor was #1 on that list. Went with a young and improving safety on a strong defense. The weakness of the Jets D is the linebackers and that should lead to increased tackle opportunities in the run game for Pryor.
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| 99 | twolves
ID: 57491413
Sat, Sep 03, 2016, 21:32
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17.08 Conner Barwin DE
I had looked at him in the past and changes from 3-4 to 4-3 may help him. I may have waited too long to fill out this position and required some work to come up with a player with some potential upside.
18.07 Derrick Wolfe DE
After doing some further research probably should have drafted him last round instead of Barwin after looking at last years numbers and realizing he was not suspended. Since Barwin has a week 4 bye decided I would take him and watch to see how things evolve.
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| 100 | Slackjawed Yokel
ID: 21723188
Sun, Sep 04, 2016, 09:49
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13.03 Theo Riddick, RB, Det
I knew I wanted another RB here. He had an unbelievable 80 receptions last season… That kind of production makes up for limited use in the running game and actually makes for more consistency when I might need to slot him in my lineup.
14.12 Tyler Eifert, TE, Cin
Quite a QB run as of late, but the ones I thought about (Osweiler, Cutler) had bye weeks the same as Cousins, so I looked elsewhere. Just checking ADP, Eifert has been on top of the list for a while, and it's time to get him. He may miss the first 4-6 weeks, but I can deal with that at this stage in the draft. He should be a good fill-in when bye weeks come about for my WR and TE.
15.03 Cameron Jordan, DE, NO
I scanned the roster grid (very useful feature on MFL…), and revisited the rules for starting positions (I got burned by this once a few seasons back, so made sure I understood how many starters are required at each position). Some managers had already started grabbing their second DL, while a few still had none. This tends to be a position that gets the thinnest, and the WW alternatives are not really there. Looking through who was available, I found 3 guys that were pretty equally rated - Jordan, Sheard, and Pierre-Paul. Somewhat of a toss-up, but I thought Jordan had the least uncertainty.
16.12 David Harris, LB, NYJ
It seems this guy always falls fairly low in these drafts - not specatular, but can be a tackling machine. Didn't feel great about this pick, but wanted to get a solid tackler producer with my third LB slot.
17.03 Brock Osweiler, QB, Hou
Ok, as I already said 2 picks ago, Osweiler has the same bye week as my main QB, Cousins. But, I'll burn that bridge when I get to it. I'll be more comfortable with Osweiler as a backup than any other options, so went ahead and bit the bullet.
18.12 Reggie Nelson, Oak
I peeked back at my draft from last year to see when I got a kicker - it was later. But, interestingly, round 18 is when I selected Doug Baldwin - who is a decent part of why I'm in the big leagues this year… so, no pressure with this pick. Looked first at WR's to see if lightning could strike twice, but realized neither Guru or twilson had any defensive backs, and I still had a starting position to fill there. (btw, I'm really digging the third pick for this reason - can often address my top two needs with each pair of picks...). Last year Nelson had 77 tackles and 8 picks - not expecting 8 picks again, but decent tackle numbers along with some big plays would be a good thing at this stage of the draft. He is getting up there in age, and is on a new team, so certainly some concerns.
19.03 Pierre Garcon, WR, Was
Just looking for a serviceable backup - should get that with Garcon. Hopefully his hands have improved since his days with the Colts.
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| 101 | Philly Busters
ID: 336352414
Sun, Sep 04, 2016, 14:09
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20.03 Cameron Heyward
As I stated in my "rationale" for picking Dante Fowler, I wanted a solid DL3 until I was sure about Fowler. Ironhead Jr fits that bill. He plays a high number of snaps and makes plays in the run game, gets a few sacks, and bats passes. Like most DL he has the occasional bust game but he's another DL who's career and production should be trending up. I like him and it makes for a better FF experience if you have players you like. Of course it helps to like players who can actually play! Hopefully he's over his high ankle sprain from preseason week 3. If not, Fowler will get to show his stuff week 1.
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| 102 | TD
Leader
ID: 036331011
Sun, Sep 04, 2016, 14:58
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17.13 Wallace, Mike BAL WR S
When playing for the Steelers, Wallace was a top 20 WR for a few years. At 30 years old, I still think he has something left. With Steve Smith and Breshad Perriman injured and likely to miss the start of the season, Wallace will probably be the Ravens top receiver. I also think playing with Flacco instead of Bridgewater in Minnesota will help his stats.
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| 103 | TD
Leader
ID: 036331011
Sun, Sep 04, 2016, 15:03
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18.02 Barr, Anthony MIN LB
As a rookie 1st round pick, Barr had 68 tackles, 3.5 sacks and an int in 2015. I think there is a good chance his numbers will be greatly improved in 2016.
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| 104 | TD
Leader
ID: 036331011
Sun, Sep 04, 2016, 15:09
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19.13 Graham, Brandon PHI DE
Graham is a former 1st round pick who is moving from 3-4 OLB to his more natural position of DE. Being an Eagles fan I watched him during the preseason and I think there is good chanced he will have double digit sacks this season.
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| 105 | TD
Leader
ID: 036331011
Sun, Sep 04, 2016, 15:17
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20.02 McLeod, Rodney PHI S
McLeod has improved his fantasy numbers in each of his 4 seasons in the NFL averaging over 6 fantasy points/game last year. I expect a little more improvement this year with the Eagles.
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| 106 | twolves
ID: 57491413
Sun, Sep 04, 2016, 16:24
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19.08 CJ Prosise RB
RB that looks like may play some as 3rd down back and passing situations. If he does well his role could expand as year goes along. Backup in Seattle but if injury to Rawls could put up RB2 numbers.
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| 107 | twolves
ID: 57491413
Sun, Sep 04, 2016, 16:26
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20.07 Mike Adams S
Added to my IDP as possible flex play during bye weeks as in past he has had good floor if healthy although not great upside.
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| 108 | mmikulka
ID: 257492917
Sun, Sep 04, 2016, 20:52
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15.04 DeAndre Washington, RB OAK
By this point, I was kicking myself a little for taking the relative safety of Forte over the upside of Rawls. I wanted at least one RB who is at least a tiny bit exciting, and Washington fits the bill.
As a Latavius Murray owner last year, I would not be shocked if he loses the job by midseason. Washington looked great during the preseason, and he may have already carved out a role as a complimentary back.
I now also own Washington in all 3 of my leagues: hopefully this turns out better than Forsett.
16.11 Vontaze Burfict, LB CIN
I’ve been targeting potentially elite players for my IDPs, since there should be plenty of depth on waivers. Burfict has been hurt a fair amount the last 2 years, and he will be suspended the first 3 games, but when he is on the field, his stats have been spectacular.
17.04 Jason Pierre Paul, DE NYG
More IDP upside. JPP was actually a serviceable starter when he returned last year, and now he’ll have a glove instead of a club, so maybe he can actually tackle people.
18.11 Austin Seferian Jenkins, TE TB
I already have 2 TEs, but neither are 100% healthy at the moment, so why not balance that out with a guy who might currently be a 2nd stringer?
Seferian Jenkins averaged over 8 points per game last year, and has always showed promise. There’s nobody else for Jameis to throw to besides Mike Evans, and Seferian Jenkins had 110 yards and 2 TDs in the only game he played before getting injured last year.
Obviously, there are a ton of negatives involved between his uncertain role, his lack of consistent results, his injury history, and even his relationship with his coach. But hey – it’s the 18th round and he’s my TE3.
19.04 Antoine Bethea, S SF
Bethea missed the last 9+ games last year, but he was a tackle monster the first 6 weeks, as he has been for his whole career. Hopefully the injury didn’t take much out of him and he’ll be back to normal.
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| 109 | twolves
ID: 57491413
Sun, Sep 04, 2016, 20:53
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21.08 Adam Vinitieri PK
Need a PK and he is one I like but never had in past. There was a run of PK taken including the one I was thinking about so decided to take one here. I think Indy will score more this season assuming Luck can stay healthy and he will have a season more like 2014 despite his age.
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| 110 | s R
ID: 4734262
Mon, Sep 05, 2016, 07:06
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11.09 Danny Trevathan, LB, Chi
Initially I wanted Harrison Smith here, but with Trevathan was yet on the board, picked him instead. He was perhaps the most productive two down linebacker in the NFL last season. I expect him to see a full complement of snaps in Chicago.
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| 111 | s R
ID: 4734262
Mon, Sep 05, 2016, 07:18
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12.06 Vincent Jackson, WR, TB
The reason I picked him is that Jameis Winston expected to improve in his second season.
13.09 Malcolm Jenkins, DB, Phi
Best available DB, I think. Jenkins bested his previous career high in solo tackles last year.
14.06 James Starks, RB, GB
If Lacy struggles as he did last season or misse playing time, he would see a lot of work.
15.09 Eric Weddle, DB, Bal
Weddle has been consistent throughout his career. So I trust that he can still produce top 10 DB numbers in Baltimore.
16.06 Mohamed Sanu, WR, Atl
The Falcons' pass-catching has very little obvious skill outside of Julio Jones, and the team has ranked in the top half of passing plays run every season since Matt Ryan's rookie year.
17.09 Robert Ayers, DL, TB
Ayers has been one of the most productive fantasy ends on a per snap basis throughout his career. Last year he ranked third in the category, behind Ezekiel Ansah and JJ Watt.
18.06 Cameron Artis-Payne, RB, Car
Jonathan Stewart didn’t have much competition in Carolina’s backfield. That may not be the case this season.
19.09 Clive Walford, TE, Oak
Walford was a prized prospect entering his rookie season until he was derailed by injury. Now he will be looking to build up some momentum.
20.06 Ben Heeney, LB, Oak
Heeney due to the lack of talent at the MLB position in Oakland, he was handed the starting reigns towards the end of last year.
21.09 Vinny Curry, DL, Phi
Vinny Curry should be one of the main beneficiaries of Philadelphia's newly installed "Wide 9" defensive scheme that heavily emphasizes defensive end pass rush and now he is in a full time role,
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| 112 | Philly Busters
ID: 336352414
Mon, Sep 05, 2016, 09:00
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21.12 Crockett Gillmore Bal, TE
I'm cautiously optimistic about this pick. He was under the radar and I planned on getting him late to allow me to address other needs besides backup TE in earlier rounds. When Watson went down, that opened the door for the full time starting role. He seemed to have developed a good rapport with Flacco last year before getting hurt. With the overall Ravens receiving corps being mediocre at best, he should see frequent targets on 3rd downs and in the red zone.
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| 113 | TD
Leader
ID: 036331011
Mon, Sep 05, 2016, 10:56
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21.13 Bailey, Dan DAL PK
At this point in the draft, I felt the 1-2 extra points per game I would get from drafting a top kicker was worth more than choosing a backup who would most likely be off my roster by the end of the season. Bailey is one of the most accurate kickers in the NFL converting over 90% of his field goals in each of the last 4 seasons.
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| 114 | TD
Leader
ID: 036331011
Mon, Sep 05, 2016, 11:02
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22.02 Garoppolo, Jimmy NEP QB
Because I drafted Brady, I also wanted Garoppolo on my roster. I plan to choose between Garoppolo and Flacco base on matchup for the first four games while Brady is suspended.
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| 115 | TD
Leader
ID: 036331011
Mon, Sep 05, 2016, 11:12
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23.13 Conte, Chris TBB S
Surprised that this late in the draft, the top player on my queue, Tony Jefferson, was chose one pick ahead of me. Conte has good tackling numbers and averaged 7 fantasy points/game last season.
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| 116 | Philly Busters
ID: 336352414
Mon, Sep 05, 2016, 11:38
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22.03 Brian Cushing HOU, LB
Always looking to have lineup options, I like to start with at least 1 backup for every position except kicker. Since I'll almost always use a LB for Flex D, that means carrying 4 LBs. When healthy, Cushing has consistently posted good tackle numbers. I see him as a high floor, low ceiling option who will provide a reasonable fill-in score when needed during bye weeks.
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| 117 | Philly Busters
ID: 336352414
Mon, Sep 05, 2016, 11:59
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23.13 Tony Jefferson ARI, S
One last reserve position to fill before getting a K in the last round. Queued up 3 with Jefferson, then Trumaine Johnson, and undrafted CB. There were a lot of picks still to be made and I had no idea how many DBs would come off the board. Was pleasantly surprised that Jefferson made it to me and gives me 2 solid options for DB2 behind Vaccaro and good bye week coverage. Jefferson combines good tackle numbers with big play potential from the occasional pick or sack.
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| 118 | Philly Busters
ID: 336352414
Mon, Sep 05, 2016, 12:01
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Oops, correction on the last post. Jefferson was 23.12, not 13.
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| 119 | TD
Leader
ID: 036331011
Mon, Sep 05, 2016, 12:23
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24.02 Jackson, Malik JAC DT
Jackson put up good numbers in Denver last season. I think moving to Jacksonville which runs a 4-3 defense will improve his numbers.
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| 121 | Philly Busters
ID: 336352414
Mon, Sep 05, 2016, 13:03
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24.03 Chris Boswell Pitt, K
Final round and time to get a kicker. Good accuracy in a high powered offense should lead to a lot of scoring opportunities. Just hoping they don't score all touchdowns!
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| 122 | SwinganaMiss
ID: 537471117
Mon, Sep 05, 2016, 13:46
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15.11 Adam Jones, DB CIN
He is a little knicked up with a calf injury, but hopefully he can get healthy enough to start the season and keep his PR/KR duties. He has really improved as a CB also, so even though he's getting old, he still has a lot of upside.
16.04 Jabaal Sheard, DL NEP
Sheard should be the top pass rusher on a team with the lead more often than not. So, he should see a lot of pass rush opportunities, and be a solid second DL.
17.11 Jared Cook, TE GBP
Cook has been a decent contributor, without the best QBs, for a while. Now his QB situation has much improved. I have waited a long time to get my starting TE. This is a bit concerning, but I am hopeful that Cook will be a top 12 TE.
18.04 Chris Johnson, RB ARI
My RB are still a little thin, especially in week 8. Johnson will be merely(hopefully) a bye week fill-in, unless something happens to David Johnson.
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| 123 | twolves
ID: 57491413
Mon, Sep 05, 2016, 13:53
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22.07 Josh Doctson WR
Still need WR and one of top rookie receivers in good situation. Despite injury, hopefully he will be ready to play sooner than later.
23.08 Avery Williamson LB
Filling out IDP with 3rd linebacker. I had hoped Clay Mathews would fall to me. I am hoping he can continue to build on last season.
24.08 Terelle Pryor WR
With 2 WR injured took a healthy WR who will get some play while Gordon suspended 4 weeks. I do have Cobb with a Week 4 bye.
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| 124 | SwinganaMiss
ID: 537471117
Mon, Sep 05, 2016, 14:07
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19.11 Javiorius Allen, RB BAL
The hours after Forsett was "released" were kindof fascinating. At the 18/19 turn, twilson snatched up both West and Dixon. I went ahead and cleaned up the last remaining head of this RBBC. Who knows what will happen when the dust settles. Allen probably needs an injury or another release to actually have enough value to start or maybe even hang onto. We'll see how it shakes out.
20.04 Steven Hauschka, PK SEA
While this draft was going on, I have been working on a lot of home repairs, as I am getting ready to sell my house. Prior to this pick, I was up until 2am or so, painting a large portion of the house. By 2am I didn't want to research the pick, so when I got up I just decided to grab the next best PK. I know I need one, and I still didn't feel like doing any research. Check off that box.
21.11 Ibraheim Campbell, DB CLE
Well, I only had one DB at this point, and he's listed as Questionable for week 1. I better find another one at this spot. The obvious ones are all gone. Campbell should start at SS for a defense that will spend a lot of time behind on the scoreboard. He should have a lot of chances to creep up and rack up tackles.
22.04 Nelson Agholor, WR PHI
Looks like he will be the #2 WR, at best, for a rookie QB. If he continues to struggle on the field, he won't be #2 for long, and won't be on my team for long either. I will hold out some hope on this one.
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| 125 | Jaydog
ID: 106132311
Mon, Sep 05, 2016, 14:58
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15.10 Sammie Coates, WR, PIT
Would have loved Will Fuller here, and almost took him with my last pick, but wanted a bit more of a known entity in Aiken given that I already had a untested rookie (Sharpe). Feeling that I had room for another high upside WR, Coates made sense here. Has shown the ability to be a deep threat, and hopefully slides into the Martavis Bryant role in the Pittsburgh offense. Could be a bit boom or bust, but if he shows any promise, and I can time it right, he could win me some weeks.
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| 126 | Jaydog
ID: 106132311
Mon, Sep 05, 2016, 15:01
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16.05 Mario Williams, DE, MIA
I still needed a 2nd DL, and there were two that I liked on the board. Sheard was one (he was drafted at 16.04) and Mario Williams was the other. Williams had a poor season last year, but most experts feel it was due to him being misused as an OLB in the Rex Ryan defense, versus having any kind of diminished skills. In Miami, he should move back to a pure pass rusher, playing opposite of Cameron Wake who should help to draw some protection away. I'll also like a lot of his matchups in the AFC East, against several teams who like to throw, and others with mobile QB's who are sitting ducks scrambling outside of the pocket. I think Williams should offer me a solid DL2, with the upside to be a top performer at the position.
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| 127 | Jaydog
ID: 106132311
Mon, Sep 05, 2016, 15:06
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17.10 Dorial Green-Beckham, WR, PHL
My roster has seemed to go from very shallow at WR to very deep, having taken WR's in 3 of my last 5 picks. Given that two of my WR's are fairly untested young guys (Coates and Sharpe) I thought I had room for another, and Beckham fit the bill. The hope is that out of the three young guys, one of them pans out, and becomes an every week starter alongside Demaryius and Evans. DGB has a ton of talent, and showed flashes of production in TN last year. At the time of the pick, he would have been playing with Sam Bradford at QB, in an offense that is likely to be playing from behind a lot. Since I chose him, the Eagles traded away Bradford, knocking DGB down a few pegs, as he'll likely be playing with a rookie QB, but hope he can put it together and be a productive player. If not, he's my 6th WR, and I'll have no problem cutting him loose.
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| 128 | Jaydog
ID: 106132311
Mon, Sep 05, 2016, 15:09
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16.05 Demario Davis, LB, CLE
After taking Keuchly and Bowman early, I decided to sit tight on filling out my 3rd LB, and to fill out my LB's with a lower tier guy with upside. Davis has had a few productive, albeit disappointing seasons with the Jets, but has been playing alongside a stellar DL, with a tackle hog at ML (David Harris). Now in Cleveland, Davis is playing in front of a weak DL, and without much help at LB, in what should be a three down role.
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| 129 | Jaydog
ID: 106132311
Mon, Sep 05, 2016, 15:15
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17.10 James Laurinaitis, LB, NOS
This pick was a mistake. When my 16th round pick came up, I set up a two man queue of Demario Davis and Laurinaitis, hoping to take one of the two. I selected Davis, but unknowingly must have transferred that queue to the 17th round, where I selected Laurinaitis as well. Oops. While I was planning on taking a 4th LB at some point, I was going to wait a few rounds, but I'm happy with Laurinaitis. He moves into a better situation in NO than he had in STL. In STL, he had a stud playing alongside of him (Ogletree) and a phenomenal DL playing in front of him, both soaking up a lot of tackles. In NO, he still has a young LB playing with him (Anthony), but a sieve of a DL in front of him. As long as he secures a 3 down role, which is likely, he should offer a stable option as a 4th LB.
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| 130 | Jaydog
ID: 106132311
Mon, Sep 05, 2016, 15:19
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20.05 Kyle Rudolph, TE, MIN
Because I waited on TE, taking Zach Ertz has my first, I had decided to draft a second TE in the event that Ertz doesn't produce. When Sam Bradford was traded to MN, I became a bit nervous about the thought of Ertz with a rookie QB, so decided to grab a TE that Bradford will throw too in MN, in Rudolph. Rudolph has been a guy that some experts have predicted to break out for a few seasons now, and never has. Perhaps this was due to playing with Teddy Bridgewater. If so, with a veteran QB now in MN, perhaps he can take that step forward that so many have predicted.
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| 131 | Slackjawed Yokel
ID: 21723188
Mon, Sep 05, 2016, 15:21
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20.12 Paul Perkins, RB, NYG
Ugh. Had just setup a one-man queue of C.J. Spiller. And, naturally, Spiller goes at 20.11. The reason I had the one-man queue was that I didn't really have any other options in mind - back to the drawing board. Decided to keep with RB - still a lot of uncertainty in a lot of the backup situations as to what everyone's role will be. That's the case with Perkins as well, but as a rookie who put up very good numbers at UCLA, and is behind an aging starter, he has a lot of upside.
21.03 Tucker, Justin BAL PK
Picking towards the beginning, I decided to get a top kicker rather than waiting until the draft went all the way around.
22.12 Romo, Tony DAL QB
Depending what the Cowboys do, and what the actual rules are in our league, I may be able to stash Romo in an IR slot. If not, I'll just wait to see how he progresses in his recovery.
23.03 Boldin, Anquan DET WR
Where I really need the depth is on the defensive side of the ball (in that I don't really have any bench strength at all on D), but grabbing Boldin here to see if there is an opportunity for him to produce in the red zone in Detroit without Megatron.
24.12 Kerrigan, Ryan, WAS LB
Saw I was thin on defense, scanned available LB's and DB's and threw a couple in the queue. As a fellow Boilermaker, Kerrigan ended up on top of the list.
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| 132 | Jaydog
ID: 106132311
Mon, Sep 05, 2016, 15:24
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21.10 Jordan Howard, RB, CHI
After taking Derrick Henry in the 9th round, I've sat tight on RB, still having only 3 on my roster. Decided to add some depth with Howard. Howard has had a disappointing preseason, until the 4th game, but with a fairly unproven player in front of him (Langford) may find himself with a decent role. In the event that Langford gets hurt, or struggles, Howard appears to be the #2 option, and could also be a short yardage/redzone option.
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| 133 | Jaydog
ID: 106132311
Mon, Sep 05, 2016, 15:27
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22.05 Darren McFadden, RB, DAL
Let this pick be a lesson to "google" a player before you drafted him. I thought that with McFadden, I would be getting a decent handcuff to Ezekiel Elliott, but instead I drafted an injured player who will miss the first 6 weeks (at least) of the season. Luckily, we now have an IR slot, so at least he won't soak up a roster spot. In the event that Elliott gets hurt, or benched I'll at least have an option in week 7 and beyond. McFadden was very productive last season, scoring 10+ points in 8 of the last 11 weeks, so if Elliott doesn't realize his potential, McFadden may be useful.
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| 134 | Jaydog
ID: 106132311
Mon, Sep 05, 2016, 15:30
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23.10 Earl Thomas, S, SEA
I was still in need of a DB2, and had been sitting on 4 of 5 options that I liked for the previous few rounds. Figured it was time to take one of them, and settled on Thomas. Thomas has been fairly steady in the past, usually good for 5+ points. Not expecting a ton from Thomas, and will be keeping an eye on waivers for any potential breakout candidates, but hopefully he gives me some steady stats from a position known for ups and downs.
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| 135 | Jaydog
ID: 106132311
Mon, Sep 05, 2016, 15:32
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24.05 Tim Hightower, RB, NO
I'll finish the draft without a kicker, which is fine. Once I place McFadden on IR, I'll open up a spot to grab a kicker, so figured with my last draft pick I'd take a RB to replace McFadden. Hightower was great last season when Ingram went down, so I figured he was as good as any other depth option I could take here. If Ingram gets hurt early, I'll immediately have a really nice option that immediately becomes "start worthy". If Ingram stays healthy, I doubt I'll be able to hold onto him, but that's fine with my last pick.
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| 136 | mmikulka
ID: 257492917
Mon, Sep 05, 2016, 23:37
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20.11 CJ Spiller, RB NO
Slightly before my previous pick, the news of the Ravens cutting Forsett broke. A little bit later, and I might have been lucky enough to be on the clock. Unfortunately it was twilson up to draft, and he scooped up both West and Dixon.
Spiller helps provide a little more RB depth. It wasn’t that long ago that everybody was excited about him, and he is finally healthy (presumably in the best shape of his life too!!!1!). He’ll probably get hurt at some point, and his usage is a mystery, but they signed him last year to fill the Sproles role, and Ingram is their only other viable RB, so he’s worth a chance at pick 277.
21.04 Bashaud Breeland, CB WAS
I owned him as my 3rd DB last year in AAA, and I was looking at him in the 19th when I took Bethea. I’m a little distrustful of a CB putting up gaudy tackling stats out of nowhere, but when he made it back to me 28 picks later, I went for it. With a shutdown corner now playing opposite him, hopefully more action will be heading his direction.
22.11 Andre Ellington, RB ARI
What can I say? I like oft-injured speedsters out of Clemson whose stock has dropped massively over the past 2 years.
Ellington caught my eye because he’s going to be returning kickoffs and punts this year. If he can hold onto those jobs, he can become a viable fill-in starter with only a few offensive touches per game.
Who knows – Chris Johnson is getting pretty ancient and his resurgence last year may have been his last gasp.
23.04 Clay Matthews, LB GB
I still needed an IDP flex starter for weeks 1-3: while not likely to be top-tier, Matthews has been consistently solid.
If Matthews wasn’t around, I would have taken my preferred kicker (Boswell) rather than my backup LB option, who ended up undrafted.
24.11 Josh Lambo, K SD
With Boswell taken, I didn’t have any kickers who stood out to me. I decided on Lambo because I have relative confidence in San Diego’s offense, because I can see them struggling to close out drives with TDs, and because he has a late bye week.
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| 137 | s R
ID: 4734262
Tue, Sep 06, 2016, 04:43
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22.06 Clayton Geathers, DB, Ind
Geathers is a top sleeper right now at the DB position. He didn't get that much playing time last year, but was very productive when he was on the field.
23.09 Blair Walsh, K, Min
He was one of the best fantasy kickers last season.
24.06 Trevor Siemian, QB, Den
Bye week filler.
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| 138 | twilson
ID: 37573115
Tue, Sep 06, 2016, 16:48
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8.14 Carlos Dunlap, DL, CIN
9.01 DeAndre Levy, LB, DET
Mosley, Abdullah, and Reshad Jones didn’t quite make it back around, though I was only a half round short. That left me without a clear target at this pair of picks. Still plenty of relative value on the board, so I have possibilities.
It looks like I can wait again for QB/TE, and WR is completely off the table. IDP is a strong consideration. Though I’m done looking at DB for the time being, that still leaves LB and DL, both of which will likely be popular options in rounds 9-10. It’s either get in now or fall further down the tier list, especially at DL I think.
There are also a few more committee RBs remaining, led by Isaiah Crowell. It seems like the new coach Hue Jackson prefers Crowell to Duke Johnson as a lead back, which is not dissimilar from his recent years in Cincinnati with Hill/Bernard. The drawbacks are remaining uncertainty and the distinct possibility that the Browns will be among the worst teams in the NFL, which would significantly limit Crowell’s carries and upside.
I really like the idea of pairing two DL1s, so I researched the top names. Dunlap has been a DL1 since 2012 and a top 3 DL the last two years. Robert Quinn has the best non-Watt DL season ever to his name, but hasn’t been healthy enough to perform highly since. He’s supposedly good to go this year. Nobody else offers enough of a track record to consider. I need to see something on the field from Quinn before investing this high a pick in him, so Dunlap is the choice.
It was hard to settle on a preferred LB. Mosley was the last player to combine elite history/health/situation. I loved having Deone Bucannon on my team last year at DB, but he’s now classified at LB. There’s no denying his 2015 performance, but it is only one year. DeAndre Levy has the multi-year track record and minimal competition for tackles, but his knee has given him major issues of late. Posluszny was at another level points-wise last year, but potential increased competition and a declining skillset give me pause. Derrick Johnson is very reliable and one year further removed from a torn Achilles, but his 2015 was lacking in the big plays department.
I picked Levy to err on the side of ceiling, though now that I look back at it, perhaps Bucannon would’ve been the best mix of upside and health floor. No matter; I’m sure I’ll end up with three solid LBs by the end of the season regardless.
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| 139 | Doug
ID: 326332712
Tue, Sep 06, 2016, 18:47
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16.10 - Kenjon Barner, RB, PHI
This was my 4th straight "bench player with upside" pick... I pretty much just have some IDP and the K spot to fill (maybe a backup QB, though if Cam goes down I'm probably toast regardless). I'm looking at what's left at some positions like DL and it seems like (a) enough DLs have been drafted that not that many more will be picked, and (b) the production dropoff from a DL now to a DL at the end of the draft (even if 10 more come off the board) is minimal. I figure I can take one more upside pick and might as well make it sooner than later and leave those "mandatory" slot-filler picks to the end.
So... Barner... PHI has been singing the praises of this rookie... which is like, "of course they are"... but realistically it looks like he's in the mix to get some reps from week 1, and could be the primary if Mathews goes down. So yeah, why not take a boom-or-bust fantasy flyer on this guy, especially given Ryan Mathews history?
17.05 - Eric Berry, DB, KC
Seemed a safe/solid DB pick, I like his comeback story, and his bye week worked well for me. That's about all that went into it.
18.10 - Tyler Ervin, RB, HOU
Similar to Barner, a talented rookie who could get a chance to shine, but most likely only will be a fantasy starter in case of an injury to the real-life starter on his team. But this was my last chance for an upside pick, and wanted someone with true home-run potential.
19.05 - Demarcus Lawrence, DL, DAL
Time to flesh out the rest of my lineup... I have no DLs, and most of the rest of DLs available are expected to post similar numbers. Lawrence is suspended the first few weeks, but probably has better "points per game" projections than anyone else who's still available. Since I didn't get any top-tier DLs, I'm willing to sacrifice an early roster spot to have a chance at a better quality DL for the balance of the season.
20.10 - Sam Bradford, QB, MIN
Didn't have a backup QB, not many left, and felt he had the best potential to surprise and outperform the other QB bottom-dwellers. Definitely a bit of an unknown here, but at least he should give me some non-zeros during Cam's bye or in case of a short-term injury.
21.05 - Mason Crosby, K, GB
I mean, Ks are a crap shoot, but I saw bigger delta between him and the other Ks available than between any IDP who was left on the board. Also I was away a lot over the weekend and just wanted to set queues so I wouldn't have to worry about holding up the draft and we could get finished ASAP. At this point in the draft, it's a fool's errand guessing who other teams are going to target each round.
22.10 - Deion Jones, LB, ATL
Has taken over the MLB spot from Worrilow, could put up great numbers, but at a minimum should be solid as my flex IDP. Not bad for round 22.
23.05 - Stephon Tuitt, DL, PIT
He's an IDP who's bye week I liked and who was near top of my rankings for remaining DLs (not that there was much difference between them).
24.10 - Cameron Wake, DL, MIA
Again, just needed a DL I could plug in and was running off of queues... but looks like he has same bye as Tuitt who I got last round (whoops)... so probably will end up dropping him for a different DL before we even get to week 1! No big deal, it's round 24 anyway!
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| 140 | SwinganaMiss
ID: 537471117
Wed, Sep 07, 2016, 18:02
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23.11 Trumaine Johnson, DB LAR
I was needing another DB here. I have 2 so far, but not sure of the health of Pacman. I was deciding primarily between JOhnson and **undrafted**. Let's hope he is motivated for the season.
24.04 Tyrell Williams, WR SDG
I grabbed this guy in RG14 also. I must be too high on him. He can be Allen insurance or maybe more. The SD Offense should be pretty good through the air.
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| 141 | twilson
ID: 37573115
Thu, Sep 08, 2016, 12:08
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10.14 Tyrod Taylor, QB, BUF
11.01 Travis Benjamin, WR, SD
The 9th/10th rounds were remarkably focused on RB/DL/LB, with at least 7 of each taken. Only one QB (Cousins) and no WRs/TEs went. I liked Cousins, so that was a little disappointing, but I still essentially have my pick of the post-Rivers tier almost 37 picks later. Judging by the patterns established by the RIFC feeder leagues, I absolutely have to take a QB now, and doubling up is a very viable approach.
I like Winston, Taylor, and Mariota best. To my mind, they have the biggest chance of jumping into the elite tier. Stafford should continue to be useful, but I don’t see top five upside.
Jameis Winston has a pair of strong WRs and a quality backfield capable of catching passes. He has a year under his belt in which he was a consistently useful performer. Taylor and Mariota each missed a little time last year, but they were up around the 20 ppg mark when active. Taylor now gets a healthy Sammy Watkins for hopefully the whole season. Mariota’s Titans made major investments in the running game. While this will likely put a cap on his volume, it’s always good to be part of a strong offense.
Beyond QB, I expect there to be some key attrition at the skill positions. Christine Michael and Spencer Ware are talented RBs with clear routes to playing time in week 1. Due to other leaguewide focuses in rounds 9 and 10, there are a few WRs dropping below their RIFC ADPs. These are led by Travis Benjamin, Ted Ginn, and Devin Funchess. I’m a bit concerned about the quality of WR that will be available late. I’m not seeing anything like my 15/16/17 stretch last year of Lockett/Stevie Johnson/Marvin Jones. I could finally take my TE, but ADPs suggest that my next turn makes more sense for that.
I decided that Taylor was my top QB of the bunch. At the time, Winston was the #2, though I think I’ve come around to favoring Mariota since then. I have three starting RBs, so I think I’m going to pass on Ware and Michael to focus on cheap upside plays late. I don’t see much difference between Benjamin and Ginn; Benjamin’s role is more secure, but Ginn’s upside is higher. I’m down on Kelvin Benjamin, so opportunity remains in the Carolina offense. I don’t think I want to take the risk of missing on this tier, and there are later QBs I like, not to mention the chance that a Stafford or Mariota is around come #168. Thus, Travis Benjamin is the second pick.
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| 142 | twilson
ID: 37573115
Thu, Sep 08, 2016, 18:29
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12.14 Denzel Perryman, LB, SD
13.01 Dwayne Allen, TE, IND
Turns out that I was wrong at the 10/11 turn. Ted Ginn is still sitting there, but the full tier of quarterbacks I was debating is gone. The cupboard isn’t bare yet, but another shelf is empty. The interesting running backs were taken as expected. Only one tight end went, but it was someone that didn’t interest me. The LB spigot continued to flow, as always, but I still see some names I like. DBs are starting to be taken as well, but I think I’ll stick with my scrap heap approach.
My top QB is Ryan Fitzpatrick. He was an 18 ppg player last year, and his surrounding cast is basically identical in 2016. If anything, swapping in Forte for Ivory is an improvement for the passing game. Rustiness from his extended holdout is a bit of a concern, but I think it will ultimately have a minimal impact. Dalton and Matt Ryan are decent, but unexciting. If I choose to wait again, then I’ll likely be looking at a Flacco or Alex Smith, both of whom I view as viable choices.
For upside at LB, Denzel Perryman stands out to me. He was a low LB1 after the Chargers bye last year, and I’ve heard only excellent comments about his preseason performance thus far. Also, he has little meaningful competition for tackles.
I’ve had Martellus Bennett penciled in as my TE for a few weeks, but I’ve recently begun to have some doubts. His preseason has left something to be desired, and one beat writer is even speculating that he might be cut. Then there is the fact that he has to deal with Garoppolo for four weeks while Brady serves his silly suspension. The upside is still real, as Belichick has certainly been willing to feature 2 TEs in his offense when they are the best players.
Beyond Bennett, I’m looking at Dwayne Allen and Tyler Eifert. Eifert will most likely miss the first 4-6 weeks of the season, and there is no guarantee that he will be feeling healthy after that. No other player remaining can match his ceiling, though. Allen is a guy I’ve liked for a few years, and he did well the last time Fleener was unavailable. Allen’s main drawback is his propensity to get hurt; he’s already dealing with a minor injury as it is. I have late TEs I like as fliers too, if need be.
Perryman was a no brainer as one pick. The other was between Fitzpatrick and a TE. I decided that the dropoff at TE was a little bigger, so I consigned myself to a lesser backup signal caller. As for which TE to pick, I wavered back and forth, especially between Allen and Bennett. I went with the former Milchian Magician Allen, but it really was an either/or scenario.
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| 143 | twilson
ID: 37573115
Thu, Sep 08, 2016, 18:55
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14.14 Eric Kendricks, LB, MIN
15.01 Torrey Smith, WR, SF
Boy did I screw up the quarterback position this draft. I’ve kept picking skill position players I’m unexcited about and don’t view as unique instead of locking up a solid QBBC. Now even Flacco and Alex Smith are gone, quite unexpectedly, and I’m left debating RGIII, Brock Osweiler, and [undrafted].
Once again, I could’ve had Martellus Bennett had I waited. I still might pick him to form a TEBC. As I said in my prior rationale, Dwayne Allen’s health is far from a sure thing. LB and DB are other considerations, as I still need 3 IDPs to even fill my starting lineup. A few consensus low DB1s (Weddle, Cyprien, Church) are available. I like Eric Kendricks at LB; he entered the starting lineup with a bang last year, but faded to only decent scores after picking up a few nicks and bruises.
It wouldn’t hurt to have a 5th WR. Torrey Smith has often been fantasy relevant in the past, though not last year. He’s now on a team devoid of many other targets playing at Chip Kelly pace. Admittedly, they could be absolutely awful, but volume does have a certain value. Similar things can be said about Mohamed Sanu. There are targets to be had in Atlanta behind Julio Jones, and Sanu has had moments of relevance himself. Kenny Stills is an option in Miami, as he seems to be ahead of DeVante Parker in the pecking order, and that role was productive over 2015’s second half.
I started making decisions.
(1) No on DB. Hello in-season FA pool.
(2) Yes on Kendricks. Take the player I believe in and like.
(3) No on TE. There are others I like too.
(4) No on QB. Maybe I’m crazy, but I’m going to push it once again. Everybody has to stop taking quarterbacks at some point, right? If I have to rely on inseason FAAB or trades to fill a hole, then so be it.
(5) Torrey Smith is yet another WR that doesn’t excite me, but he’s the pick. A fantasy analyst I trust is a fan of his, and that’s enough at this point.
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| 144 | twilson
ID: 37573115
Fri, Sep 09, 2016, 13:00
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16.14 Robert Griffin III, QB, CLE
17.01 Alfred Morris, RB, DAL
I finally judged the QB market correctly. Third time is the charm, I guess! RGIII and Osweiler are the two guys I am considering as my QB2. Griffin is now four years removed from his solitary season as a QB1. I still don’t forgive Shanahan for putting him back on the field in that 2012 playoff game when his knee was already significantly damaged. Griffin hasn’t been the same player since. Now, though, he’s on a new team with a new coach known for maximizing the talents of his quarterbacks. He has a young, promising receiving corps and is playing behind a top offensive line. Hopefully, that will allow him to limit the punishment he endures and boost his confidence back to where he can be successful. It’s a bit of a longshot, but the possibility exists.
Osweiler landed in a pretty good position himself. It’s actually not dissimilar to what he had in Denver. Hopkins is better than Demaryius, but the mix of secondary WRs pale in comparison to Emmanuel Sanders. Both have a talented, if not completely proven, RB running behind a questionable line. With a full offseason under his belt as the starter, Osweiler could show some growth and threaten the low QB1 tier.
I think Griffin’s ceiling is higher than Osweiler, so he is the pick. As I said before, I can always look to a trade a few weeks down the line if need be.
For my other pick, I considered LB, RB, and TE. I think both Jared Cook and Charles Clay could be low TE1s. Cook has a good QB for the first time in his career and looks to be solidly ahead of [undrafted] for the starting job in Green Bay. Clay had a few good games last year and connected well with Taylor in the preseason. There is opportunity for someone to step up as a complementary receiver to Sammy Watkins in Buffalo.
Among backup RBs, I’m most interested in Chris Johnson and Alfred Morris. Both would be instant RB1s if David Johnson or Ezekiel Elliott get hurt, respectively. Chris Johnson has more of a chance to have occasional emergency starter value before that. I probably prefer Chris a little bit to Alfred, but his ADP is a little bit lower, so there’s a chance I could snag both if I go with Morris.
If I go LB, it will likely be a rusher. Melvin Ingram and Von Miller are both still out there with at least one LB1 season on their resume. I also find Mychal Kendricks interesting. He’s always been above 8 ppg and the Eagles look to be bad again. I know he’s in the doghouse at the moment, but it could just be a motivational tactic by the new coach.
I decided to grab a top speculative flier RB. I went with Morris in hopes of doubling with Johnson next time around. I think I can get a TE2 later on, and there is always another LB to fall in love with.
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| 147 | twilson
ID: 37573115
Fri, Sep 09, 2016, 14:02
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18.14 Terrance West, RB, BAL
19.01 Kenneth Dixon, RB, BAL
Ingram, Miller, Cook, and Chris Johnson were all taken in the interim. Charles Clay and Mychal Kendricks stuck around. They remain in the conversation.
I expanded my list to the next group of RBs and began to look at DBs. This was made difficult by the fact that I was interspersing my research with best man duties at a friend’s wedding. Thanks to his stretch run last year, Tim Hightower was next up on the list. Unless you think that CJ Spiller will become relevant again, Hightower is extremely well positioned for success in the event of an Ingram injury.
I also noticed that Justin Forsett got cut by the Ravens. I’ve been extremely wary of that backfield as it screamed multi-way committee to me, but this changes things. Without Forsett, the roles are a little clearer. Terrance West seems to be the guy to start, and Kenneth Dixon could take lead once he is back from injury in week 4 or so. I can’t totally ignore Buck Allen, but he seems to be lagging a bit. This news is enough to jump West and Dixon ahead of Hightower in my pecking order.
I decided on West as first pick because he has a chance to take the job and run with it. Then I debated Dixon vs Kendricks vs DB. I found a compelling enough case to take two shots at the Baltimore backfield, so that was that. Interesting skill player almost always trumps IDP with question marks and no personal attachment.
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| 148 | twilson
ID: 37573115
Fri, Sep 09, 2016, 14:22
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20.14 Charles Clay, TE, BUF
21.01 Chandler Catanzaro, K, ARI
No more Mychal Kendricks, but Clay is still there. So is Hightower, but I’ve met my RB quota at this point. Among other positions of note, the third kicker and a host of DBs went.
I have three open starting slots (DBx2, K) and two bench slots left to fill. My plan is to take a TE2 and either LB4 or WR6 for those. The top priority at the moment is to take stock of what is left at DB. It’s hard enough to do prep for that position given the frequent turnover and constantly changing defensive roles for many players, and doing it on a smartphone is even worse. I’m surprised to find that the other RIFC owners have done a better job of selecting DBs than usual, so I’m forced to dig a bit deep. After looking at 7 or 8 guys, nothing is standing out to me, so I make the call to postpone at DB one final time.
The LB4/WR6 pick will be one of my last two, so I’m left with TE2 and K. I suspect that kickers will start to go in earnest shortly after this, so taking my preferred option has appeal. Catanzaro has the best combination of offense and bye week, so he’s the guy.
My interest in Charles Clay is detailed in my 16.14/17.01 rationale. He has moderate talent, a rising QB, and an opportunity for role expansion. I also find Virgil Green quite intriguing. While he’s spent the first five years of his career almost exclusively as a blocker, he was known more for his pass-catching in college. He’s had a good camp and locked down the starting all-purpose TE job.
As much as I see the upside of Green, though, I have to side with the guy that already has two 13 target games to his name. Clay and Catanzaro are the picks.
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| 149 | twilson
ID: 37573115
Fri, Sep 09, 2016, 15:10
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22.14 Patrick Chung, DB, NE
23.01 Eli Rogers, WR, PIT
Wow, Guru managed to steal a pick from me in the 22nd round. I’m impressed! I wanted to draft TJ Ward because it looks like he will be playing some linebacker in nickel packages. I love safeties that get to play as close to the line of scrimmage as possible in fantasy. For full disclosure, I should also mention that I would’ve happily drafted Ibraheim Campbell as well.
Back to the drawing board. Nobody screams value to me, unfortunately. I honestly don’t remember all the players I debated, so I’ll just describe my pick. Chung is a veteran and should have a decent matchup in week 1. He’s more of a placeholder than anything, as I don’t see him as having a particularly high ceiling.
I failed to find a second DB to draft in my post-wedding state, so I decided to postpone the selection until I was in a better position to do more research. That meant I would be taking my LB4/WR6 at 23.14. I’ve been considering Mychal Kendricks since the 16/17 turn, so he’s the obvious choice at LB. At WR, I’m toying with the idea of Eli Rogers as a sort of handcuff. He has earned the slot receiver job in Pittsburgh and, more importantly, may have usurped punt returns from Antonio Brown. I would be very disappointed if this proves to be the case, but it means that Rogers has the potential to be viable in his own right.
This one could go either way, but I’d rather have an upside WR6 for the moment. If Brown keeps the punt returns, Rogers will immediately be back on the waiver wire.
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| 150 | twilson
ID: 37573115
Fri, Sep 09, 2016, 15:17
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24.14 Tavon Wilson, DB, DET
It’s tough to go into detail on this rationale because the other players I considered are by definition undrafted. Anyway, I will say that my search was wide ranging and ended up between Wilson and one other guy. I may even swap them, or Chung, before the season opener. As for Wilson, he is the new strong safety in Detroit. That is a role that has been occasionally productive in the past, but none of his predecessors have ever been a fantasy dynamo. It helps that he has a top notch last name. That’s as good a last word as any for this draft!
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