RotoGuru Football Forum

View the Forum Registry

XML Get RSS Feed for this thread

Self-edit this thread

0 Subject: RIFC 2018: Draft Rationale Collection Thread

Posted by: Guru
- [330592710] Sun, Aug 26, 2018, 16:30

We'll use the same process for collecting rationales as last year.

You have a choice. You may either post your rationale in the comment area next to the associated pick on the MFL draft page,

- or -

you may post each rationale in this thread. Anything posted here will take precedence over anything posted on MFL.

Regardless, each rationale is due no later than two rounds in arrears. I understand that, especially when queues are used, staying within two rounds will be difficult. However, please try to stay relatively current.

I will set up a master thread for all Rationales that will be organized in the proper draft sequence. So don't worry about the sequence here.
Only the 50 most recent replies are currently shown. Click on this text to display hidden posts as well.
      ID: 545112110
      Wed, Aug 29, 2018, 09:18
8.10 Tremaine Edmunds, LB, BUF

Back to defense we go for this pick. Roquan Smith is getting most of the publicity as #1 rookie IDP, but I would argue this kid is in the absolute best position to succeed out of the gate. He's locked into the coveted starting Mike linebacker position in Buffalo's 4-3 defense. Think Zach Brown except younger, faster, bigger and stronger (which should hopefully lead to better). If nothing else, he should wrack up tackles. Taking a rook to anchor a linebacking core may seem risky, but I'm very comfortable taking him. Buffalo has placed lofty expectations on his shoulders and I think he'll deliver.
      ID: 316312520
      Wed, Aug 29, 2018, 10:13
7.13 . Lavonte David LB

With a flurry of LB going off board decided time for a LB. David has been very consistent over past years with consistent tackle numbers and do not expect too much different this year.

8.02 . Sean Lee . LB

This seemed like another good value for LB as he has been in top 10 past 2 years and near prime of career.
      ID: 211131196
      Wed, Aug 29, 2018, 10:51
5.10 – Dion Lewis

Started getting nervous here about not having an RB2 yet. 8 backs went off the board in the 18 picks between my round 4 & round 5 pick, including 2 I had been targeting, Cohen & Burkhead. Definitely missed the run here, and I was left with really only 1 or 2 backs I was still interested in to fill the spot. Couldn’t be 100% sure those wouldn’t go before my round 6 pick, forcing me into using this spot to fill that need. That being said, I think Dion Lewis is talented, and can do a better job than Demarco Murray did in 2017 to carve himself a sizable share of the backfield in Tennessee.

6.05 – Jamison Crowder

Really struggled on this one. I had wanted Lockett here, and maybe could’ve had him and Lewis both if I had swapped the picks; obviously, will never know! Anyways, I was torn between WR3 and IDP. With 18 picks until my next turn and the IDP seal broken, if I skipped out here, I could once again miss the big run and not get my hands on one or two elite guys. Conversely, with the RB well tapped nearly dry, I was pretty sure WRs were about to fly off the board. I ultimately went with Crowder because of his punt return upside. Obviously betting a bit on a new QB situation, lingering groin injury, and a somewhat crowded receiving corps, but reportedly he established solid chemistry prior to preseason and is probable for week 1 at this point.
      ID: 545112110
      Wed, Aug 29, 2018, 14:24
9.05 Patrick Mahomes, QB, TTU (oops, I mean KC)

Full disclose here --- I graduated from Texas Tech University and have massive bias with this pick. I had Mahomes circled as the guy I wanted to go to battle with at QB this year. Question all along was when to take him. Is this too early? Possibly. However, with 18 picks to go before I pick again and a QB run almost certainly on the doorstep of the draft, I wasn't going to chance him not making it back to me. I decided to plant my Texas Tech flag in the ground now.

What's not to like here? Mahomes two biggest physical strengths are his arm and ability to run. He also has the IT factor. That ability to walk into a huddle and have everyone looking at you buying in 100% on you as their leader. His dad played professional baseball so he was blessed with good genes. Add that to his relentless work ethic along with natural leadership skills and you have something special brewing.

Now let's look at the Chiefs. Andy Reid has a good track record with QBs. Mahomes has had a year to pretty much watch and learn. If he wants to show case his arm strength, he can throw bombs to Hill. He has one of the best security blankets in the league in Kelce. Also has the option to check down to one of the most dynamic backs in the league in Hunt. If all else fails, he can take off and run. I'm excited to see him light the league on fire this year. Also worth noting my homer pick last year, Dak Prescott, helped lead me to the RIFC-AA Championship last homer picks can work out!
      ID: 545112110
      Wed, Aug 29, 2018, 22:51
10.10 David Njoku, TE, CLE

Time to snag a TE and very pleased to see Njoku made it to me. There's quite a bit to like here. Njoku is a big physical freak who should be a favorite red zone target for whoever is throwing the ball (Taylor or Mayfield). With Gordon and Landry on the outside, Njoku will also have plenty of room to slice and dice the middle of the field. He's a coverage nightmare (too fast for most LBs and too big for most DBs). With a year under his belt, a breakout is a reasonable expectation here. Sneaky TE1 upside.
      ID: 237262718
      Thu, Aug 30, 2018, 01:13
6.13 Julian Edelman, WR, NE
I had no WRs through five rounds, but finally somebody stood out to me. Of course, Edelman is suspended for the first four games, but when he returns, he should be a reliable option.

The last time Edelman was outside the top 10 in targets per game was 2012. The Patriots are short on receiving talent after the loss of Brandin Cooks, and despite playing 12 games (at most), I expect Edelman to approach 1,000 yards.

7.02 CJ Mosley, LB, BAL
I felt some pressure to take a second WR here because of how far behind I was. I looked into Devin Funchess, but everything I read suggested that he is more likely to lose targets this year than to gain them.

I considered Reshad Jones, but decided that Landon Collins and Adoree Jackson were almost as good and that at least one of them was likely to drop. I also looked into a pair of top DEs, Calais Campbell and Cameron Jordan. They both seemed like reliable options, even if I expect Campbell to regress from last year.

Mosley seems to have an even higher floor, though. 3 of his 4 seasons have been elite, and there is little competition for tackles in Baltimore. My only question was whether or not it was a good idea to draft 2 of the top 3 LBs when I had confidence that I could find other good ones later on. I ultimately decided that drafting a player who is very likely to produce at a high level took priority over positional scarcity.
      ID: 237262718
      Thu, Aug 30, 2018, 02:01
8.13 Jordan Reed, TE, WAS
No DBs had been drafted, so I was ensured at least one of the top 3 would be there for my pick on the turn. WR was a priority but I still viewed it as a vast tier of 10+ players who didn't seem like they would be drafted anytime soon.

If I wanted a TE that I was happy to start, Jordan Reed looked like he could be my last remaining option. On a per-game basis, Reed finished 4th among TEs in 2017, 3rd in 2016, and 2nd in 2015. Of course, the emphasis on rate stats indicates his extensive injury history: Reed has missed 16 games during the past 3 seasons. At pick 111, though, I'll gladly take the injury risk even if it means I need to draft a stable backup TE.

9.02 Reshad Jones, S, MIA
I had my pick of all the DBs, and I decided on Jones fairly quickly.

I worry that Landon Collins will have more competition for tackles with the Giants' addition of Alec Ogletree, and with Beckham's health and the addition of Saquon Barkley, opposing offenses probably won't be dominating the time of possession or running as frequently. Adoree Jackson relies heavily on return yards, which is always dangerous, and he might not be targeted by opposing QBs as often this year. I think both of them are still likely to be excellent, but Reshad Jones seemed like the safest bet.

Jones was the #1 DB in 2015 and 2017, and he was on pace to be the #2 DB in 2016 before getting injured. He shouldn't decline too much at age 30, and I would be surprised if he doesn't finish in the top 3 again this year.
      ID: 53713273
      Thu, Aug 30, 2018, 04:54
8.06 Alex Ogletree, LB, NYG

since all of you are picking IDP's like crazy, all the WR options are still out there, so no need to rush picking any of those. thought shortly about adding a 3rd RB, but did not like the options that may get more carries than the rest. I better settle for some quality backups that may excel because the #1 sucks or gets injured.

This means back to picking LB's: Ogletree was slightly above the rest (like Tremaine Edmunds), so it was an easy choice. Did not yet think about a DB, because I don't want to be the first one to pick from tier 1 at that position

9.09 Keanu Neal, DB, ATL

still too many WR out there worth taking. not quite ready to take a backup RB. most of them have the same value and require an injury or ineffectivness of the #1. this is not the kind of gamble I'd like to take while I have that many starting slots available.

since I already took 2 LB's, I thought that a 3rd LB, although he would score more points, is not the right way to go. I looked a bit through the safeties and the tackle numbers of Neal stood out. If he keeps up this numbers he will be nearly as good as the LB's that went around this pick.
      ID: 545112110
      Thu, Aug 30, 2018, 08:33
11.05 Harrison Smith, DB, MIN

I would've preferred my first DB pick be Keanu Neal or Budda Baker, but Smith is a nice consolation prize. A solid argument can be made that he's the best safety in the league. He's without a doubt the leader of the best defensive unit in football. Hoping for some solid steady numbers here.
      ID: 211131196
      Thu, Aug 30, 2018, 11:51
7.10 - Blake Martinez

Wanted to go IDP here. 7 LBs off the board by this pick, and I wanted in on one of the top names, and knew they were going quickly. Blake Martinez is a bit of a gamble, given he’s only had one year of production where he was getting starting snaps due to a slew of injuries to the team around him. He managed to put up an impressive 96 solo tackles and 48 assists last year, and with GB losing a starting LB during preseason due to injury, he shouldn’t have too much competition to put up big numbers again this year.

8.05 - Calais Campbell

Went another IDP here, trying to get a top DE since a run on them was underway. I had been shooting for Chandler Jones, even with my 7th round pick, but got beaten to the punch. Can’t complain too much though with someone like Calais Campbell, one of the top producers in likely the best defense in the league. Was more uncertainty in him last year when transitioning to a 4-3, but he ended up with his best year of production to date. Age is certainly a concern, but I can see him having another big year with a solid shot at achieving double digit sacks for second year running.

9.10 - Aaron Donald

Third IDP pick in a row for me. Obviously holdouts are never reassuring, but I took a chance on him at a discount last year in a similar scenario and it paid off in spades. It helped that shortly before this pick, word was that a deal was “very, very, likely” to be reached this weekend, the most reassuring language I’ve heard used throughout the saga. Given that news, i figured he was likely to go off the board sooner than later and figured it was worth the gamble at this point.

10.05 - Adrian Peterson

Had been hoping to grab Cole or Kupp here, because I liked their value at this stage of the draft, but both went quickly after my last pick. Ended up taking the gamble on Peterson. The RB situation in Washington is pretty sad right now, and while I initially laughed when I heard they drafted AP, he put together some really nice runs against the Broncos defense in his preseason debut. Not expecting miracles here, but could end up paying off if he manages to secure the bulk of the work in their backfield.
      ID: 316312520
      Thu, Aug 30, 2018, 13:57
9.13 . Marlin Mack RB
The defensive guy I had my eye on Aaron Donald was grabbed a few picks ahead of me, so went with offensive.
I liked Mack as RB from a team last year. He is one of few remaining potential starters left but health is a big concern.

10.2 Cameron Hayward DE
Plan was to take a Defensive end but no one jumped out but he has improved number in past 2 years.
      ID: 545112110
      Thu, Aug 30, 2018, 19:04
12.10 Reuben Foster, LB, SF

After a relatively safe pick with Harrison Smith, back to high risk/high reward. Foster has all of the ability and instincts to be a #1 LB. He also plays the coveted Mike linebacker position in SF's 4-3 defense. Risk is that he is suspended two games for checkered off the field events and also sustained a concussion a few days back. He seems to have learned from the off the field stuff and I'm hoping he'll recover quickly from the concussion. Nothing else stood out so I'm rolling the dice here.
      ID: 316312520
      Thu, Aug 30, 2018, 22:31
11.13 . Demario Davis LB

I like to have 3 LB and he had very good year last year and is coming into his prime. The unkonwn is that he is playing for a new team. If he were still playing for same team probably would have drafted earlier.

14.02 . Kevin Byard . S

Needed to round out defensive positions with a safety/CB. He appears to be rising as a safety playmaker.

39Slackjawed Yokel
      ID: 547332821
      Fri, Aug 31, 2018, 00:07
6.03 Marqise Goodwin, SF, WR
Top WR in San Francisco - he had some solid games with Garropolo late last season, and the two seem to be clicking this preseason. He only had 2 TD's last year which is concerning. He's not much of a red-zone target, but do expect more than 2 on long balls.

7.12 Christian Kirksey, LB, CLE
Hopping on the LB train. Had debated picking up a DL last time around - as an attempt to start a run, but it was too early. We just have 6 LB go off the board in the past 10 picks. Looked at who was available, and saw Kirskey as a step above the other options. Hoping he can continue the 135+ tackle seasons that he had the last two years.

8.03 Cameron Jordan, DL, NOS
Had Jordan on a team last year, and he was money all year long. When he wasn't putting up multiple sack games, he was still racking up tackles. Looking at his numbers, he's played all 16 games the last 7 seasons. Here's hoping he keeps up the consistency and durability.

9.12 Isaiah Crowell, RB, NYJT
These next two picks were tough. Wednesday, I had an offsite meeting for work in which we had a 1.5 hr bus ride that left at 5:45am. I figured I'd go RB-WR with the next pair of picks (probably as a reaction to going LB/DL last time around). So Tuesday night, I came up with a short list of 5-6 of each - knowing I wouldn't really have time to do any additional research when it got to me. As it turns out, the meeting was over and we were on the bus ride back when my picks came up. Ended up sticking to the plan - Crowell was actually the top name on the list of RB options. I did go RB first seeing as IAC already had 4 WR (of course, he picked another one, but twolves did not). A bit surprised to see Crowell had 1050 and 1300 yds from scrimmage last two years - definitely flew under my radar - and still only 25 - good solid 3rd rb for my team.

10.03 Nelson Agholor, WR, Phi
I had Garcon listed higher than Agholor - but, seeing as I already had Marqise Goodman, I didn't necessarily want to always have to rely on two receivers from the same team (although I did have flashbacks to the days when I had Harrison, Wayne, and Dallas Clark on my team). Plus news had just come out about Jeffery missing the first two weeks - setting Agholor up to be the main man, and hopefully build off of that.
40Slackjawed Yokel
      ID: 547332821
      Fri, Aug 31, 2018, 00:08
whoops. screwed up the formatting. my bad
      ID: 545112110
      Fri, Aug 31, 2018, 07:05
13.05 Devante Parker, WR, MIA

Adding some WR depth here. Ideally, I'll only need to use Parker as a bye week filler. Someone is going to scoop up the whopping 161 targets Landry left behind when he was traded to Cleveland. Parker likely fell in the draft due to injury history AND currently recovering from a broken finger. At this point, the risk is worth the potential reward for me.
      ID: 211131196
      Fri, Aug 31, 2018, 11:21
11.10 - Philip Rivers

One of the last to pick up my starting QB. I saw backups were starting to go off the board, so I didn’t want to miss out on my target tier of QBs in the 10-15 range. Rivers is a solid option - not going to put up elite numbers, but should deliver more or less consistently throughout the season. He also has a good track record of staying healthy - he’s played every game in the past two seasons, which is more than can be said for most these days.

12.05 - Alex Smith

Went immediately for my QB2 in Smith here. Easier to take a gamble on him with Rivers already in the lineup, and I like Smiths upside more than the remaining options. Ultimately, I decided I was willing to invest here to be able to play my QBs based on week to week matchups, rather than just have a set it and forget it starter with a less appealing backup.
      ID: 53713273
      Fri, Aug 31, 2018, 11:43
10.06 Budda Baker, DB, ARI

again: too many WR options out there to pick my 3rd one now. LB is filled and I still don't like a backup RB here. better take a 2nd top DB while one is out there. Budda Baker has a small sample size of success last year, but in the games he was starting he was above average. Since it seems he will start this year I got an above average DB. and there are not many such players because most of them are the same with the occasional outburst when they force a turnover or even score.

11.09 Jason Pierre-Paul, DL, TBB

I have 5 starting slots still to fill. 3 IDP's (2 DL), WR and PK. I still see enough options that I like for my 3rd and 4th WR and PK is a really low priority. Thought a bit about a 3rd RB but could not convince myself in picking any of the available options. looking through the IDP options Pierre-Paul seems like a good bet. He gets better and better on how to play with his hand limitation. I believe he is close to where he was before his accident, therefore he should be worth a 11th round pick.

12.06 Allen Hurns, WR, DAL

getting a #1 receiver in round 12 means that the player or the QB throwing to him have issues. I don't see an issue in Dak Prescott, other than him not being drafted yet (he went at 13.12). And I don't see an issue with Hurns as long as the other receivers on that team are #1, #3, Michael Gallup and whoever is in there at TE. Prescott needs to throw to someone and hopefully he looks into Hurns direction a lot. someone needs to catch balls for these 3000+ yards a QB usually throws in a year.

13.09 Bilal Powell, RB, NYJ

time for my 1st backup. looked around at RB and compared them with the WR's I had in mind for my last starting spot a round earlier. Powell could be on the better end of a timeshare. that can't be said for many still available RB's. I thought about Latavius Murray because I do not believe in Cook finishing out the season. thought about ...beep.... Also thought about ...beep.... In the end I decided for Powell because he has the most stable role right now. Will add some more RB's that have upside in case the #1 is out.
      ID: 545112110
      Fri, Aug 31, 2018, 13:43
14.10 Dallas Goedert, TE, PHI

I remember cursing the TV on draft night when Philly traded up right ahead of the Cowboys and drafted Dallas (who was named after the Cowboys). He was the best TE in college last year and should fit in nicely in Philly's 2 TE sets. Good luck trying to cover him and Ertz. What a nightmare that will be for opposing defenses. Might be a tad early, but I thought I could wait on Godwin and watched him get picked. Taking no chances here.
      ID: 237262718
      Fri, Aug 31, 2018, 18:40
10.13 Kelvin Benjamin, WR, BUF
With only Edelman so far, I was way behind the pack at WR, and Kelvin Benjamin stood out to me. Last year was disappointing, but he was hurt and only averaged 5.6 targets per game. That usage rate seems unlikely to happen again. The Bills' QB situation looks like a disaster, but who else are they going to throw to?

So far he has been a solid WR2 in even-numbered years and injured/mediocre in odd-numbered years. Hopefully that pattern will continue. At the very least, he should be a back-end WR3 who I can start and expect to get 6 or 7 points.

11.02 Jack Doyle, TE, IND
With the often-injured Jordan Reed as my TE1, I needed to draft a more reliable backup. The Colts' new TE addition does worry me a little bit, but that team has absolutely nobody to pass to besides TY Hilton, and they will probably need to pass a whole lot.
      ID: 237262718
      Fri, Aug 31, 2018, 19:24
12.13 Chris Thompson, RB, WAS
I hadn't seriously considered a RB since locking up Le'Veon Bell and Lamar Miller during the first 3 rounds. I still needed a bye-week replacement and emergency option, though, and Thompson is somebody I trust to be at least serviceable each week while also having some upside.

He is locked into the passing downs, and last year that got him 4-8 rushes and 4-8 targets per game. Thompson took his 10 touches/game and turned them into 11.6 fantasy points/game before getting injured in week 10. I don't expect a repeat of such a silly and completely unsustainable efficiency level, but hey, that hasn't kept anybody from valuing Alvin Kamara as a top-10 pick...

13.02 Michael Gallup, WR, DAL
This was a bit of a reach, but his upside leaped out to me, and I wasn't sure he would last another 25 picks. This is another situation where the ball has to be thrown to somebody. The Cowboys' top two options are gone, and 219 targets are up for grabs. Nobody else seems to be stepping up.

Gallup played the most 1st-team snaps of any Dallas WR during the preseason and he has performed well. There is plenty of risk here, but his stock seems to be steadily rising, and I can easily envision Gallup becoming the primary target and finishing with 1000+ yards and 8+ TDs.
      ID: 545112110
      Sat, Sep 01, 2018, 00:47
15.05 Jordan Wilkins, RB, IND

Once Godwin went off the board, I decided to open up my bag of tricks...err sleepers. First Goedert and now Wilkins. Wilkins has the inside track to start Week 1 if Mack can't go. Even if he can, Mack is not as talented as Wilkins. IMO, Wilkins is Indy's most talented RB. I expect him to take over the starting role sooner rather than later.
      ID: 211131196
      Sat, Sep 01, 2018, 04:26
13.10 - Deone Bucannon

Bit of a risk as he’s been injured a bit during preseason and is adjusting to a new scheme. He seems on track for week 1 though, and If he stays healthy, I think he’ll be a solid every week option.

14.05 - Chris Godwin

I have not been a good judge so far on having players I want fall back around to me, and with 18 picks before my next, I pulled the trigger. Godwin’s been getting a good amount of first team snaps, and looks like he may be getting the start ahead of DeSean Jackson. With Evans likely drawing top coverage, Godwin could get a lot of looks.
      ID: 316312520
      Sat, Sep 01, 2018, 09:18
13.13 E Griffen . DE
Need to fill out defense and was looking for one of the 2 Vikings if there. I hhink both Griffen if healthy and recovered from foot problems he will be good although Hunter may be better this year. I would have considered Ansah if Griffen were gone.

14.02 . Ted Ginn, JR.
Need to fill out WR and difficult to pick as they are beginning to get more hit or miss at this stage. He had a good year in 2017 and has good QB throwing but is only probaly 3rd of 4th option a best.
      ID: 545112110
      Sat, Sep 01, 2018, 14:07
16.10 Denzel Perryman, LB, LAC

Perryman can fly sideline to sideline and will be the starting Mike (middle) linebacker in Gus Bradley's 4-3 defense. He's explosive, high energy and has the instincts you need to be a top tier LB. Also worth noting Bradley has a good track record with MLBs in his scheme (Bobby Wagner and Paul Posluszny).
      ID: 545112110
      Sat, Sep 01, 2018, 14:14
17.05 Kenny Vaccaro, DB, TEN

Just a month ago, Vaccaro was looking for a job. With Cyprien blowing his ACL, Tennesse signed Vaccaro. It's a good landing spot for him as the Titans front 7 is a disaster (should lead to plenty of tackle opportunities for the safeties). I don't need him to be a world beater. Just looking for some decent production here.
      ID: 237262718
      Sat, Sep 01, 2018, 14:38
14.13 Randall Cobb, WR, GB
Heading into this pair of picks, I knew I wanted Derek Carr and a WR. Fugazi already had 2 QBs, so I could safely wait and take Carr on the turn.

WR was a much harder decision. There were a few options I liked, and the main area of interest was in Green Bay. Rodgers has pretty consistently made at least two WRs useful for fantasy purposes. With Jordy Nelson gone, Cobb moves back to being the #2 WR, and therefore should benefit. That said, it just seems like the Packers want to get rid of him. They appear to be shopping him around, and they might decide to cut him if they don't get any offers. I'm a little more intrigued by Geronimo Allison, the clear #3 WR at the moment. Of course, it's tough to trust somebody who has yet to break 300 yards in a season.

Ultimately, I decided to go with Cobb, who had already dropped several rounds lower than in the AAA/AA leagues and was doubtful to make it back around to me. In addition, I am expecting my next pair of picks to arrive before any potential surprise cut of Cobb, so I think Geronimo is likely to still be available.

Cobb's last two years have been lousy, but as the 3rd option, he was targeted significantly less frequently than he had been in the past. If he stays on the team and is the WR2, he should have a useful season. As long as Rodgers targets him 100+ times, he should be a tolerable WR3, likely finishing with 800-1000 yards and 4-7 TDs. Of course, he could also be cut by 4pm today.

15.02 Derek Carr, QB, OAK
After really struggling with my last pick, this one was easy. We were running low on QBs, and Carr was my best remaining option by a whole lot. Carr finished as a top 10 QB in 2015 and 2016, then was drafted as QB #5 last year. He (like the rest of the Raiders) disappointed: it seemed like the team couldn't handle the sky-high expectations. The Raiders' offense appears to be somehow even more loaded this year, and yet the expectations are much lower.

I expect a bounce-back year: Carr has 3 high-quality WRs to throw to, multiple explosive 3rd-down backs, and a passable receiving TE. He has the same bye week as Aaron Rodgers, but I drafted Carr more as a fallback option or potential mid-season trade bait than as a bye week fill-in.
      ID: 811161317
      Sat, Sep 01, 2018, 17:41
15.13. Davonte Booker RB
Needed to fill in RBs. And he may not start regularly , he hopefully will play well.

16.02. Andy Dalton QB
Needed backup QB and decided on consistent/low risk although not high ceiling. Did look at Winston and Tannehill and a couple of the rookies but seemed more unpredictable. Had wanted Keenan but he got taken earlier.
      ID: 545112110
      Sat, Sep 01, 2018, 19:36
18.10 Josh Doctson, WR, WAS

I'm not sure if Docston has come down with the bubonic plague or what, but I'll take him at this point. He's yet to tap into his potential fully, but he's entering his 3rd year in the league...which is usually the magic number for WRs. He was a standout at TCU (watched him torch Tech plenty of times) so he can be viable if he is able to finally unleash that potential. Perhaps the QB switch will help. Time will tell.
      ID: 237262718
      Sat, Sep 01, 2018, 21:54
16.13 Geronimo Allison, WR, GB
In lieu of high-quality WRs, I will take a whole lot of them and hope I can get 3 to stick.

In Aaron Rodgers' last 4 full seasons, he has thrown an average of 3026 yards and 29 TDs to his WRs. No matter how great Davante Adams does, there will be plenty of room left. My Cobb/Allison combo should result in at least one viable starter.

17.02 Tahir Whitehead, LB, OAK
My plan was to take James Conner here as a handcuff to LeVeon Bell, but youngroman drafted him with pick 216. I'm assuming that he believes there is a realistic chance that Bell won't report and has played his last game for the Steelers, because Conner is still undrafted in both of the AAAs and went in the 21st round in AA (as a handcuff). Needless to say, I was irritated by this unexpected development.

I had already been considering Tahir Whitehead and Bruce Irvin among my top remaining IDP options: after news of the Khalil Mack trade broke, I was trying to decide who would benefit more. Though the extra tackles available should help both, I expect Whitehead to get at least as much as Irvin, and I worry that Irvin will be less effective at getting sacks now that teams will be more focused on him.

Irvin's DL eligibility was tempting, but Whitehead seemed like the more reliably good option. He has averaged over 8 points per game for the Lions each of the past two years, and it seems like his situation has stayed about the same or even slightly improved this year.
      ID: 545112110
      Sun, Sep 02, 2018, 00:01
19.05 Jordan Hicks, LB, PHI

Another middle linebacker in a 4-3 defense (in case you haven't noticed, I like that). Hicks is basically a stopgap until Foster comes back from suspension. He does have the potential to stick with the team for the long haul.
      ID: 211131196
      Sun, Sep 02, 2018, 07:20
15.10 - Derwin James

Once I missed out on jones and Collins, I knew I was waiting a while to take a safety. Starting off with a rookie is a definite gamble, but he has started off strong in preseason, picking off a pass in his 3rd play on the field. There is upside here, hopefully he continues to deliver.

16.05 - John Brown

His time in Arizona was a mess, but a lot of buzz has been coming out of camp with regards to his chemistry with Flacco. His health is an obvious concern, so I don’t think he’ll quite make a return to his 2015 performance, but he could be a valid flex option if things go right this season.

17.10 - Javorius Allen

Sure wish I had had the McKinnon news at the time of this pick. Adding depth to my RB bench here. I believe in Collins so I don’t see him ceding the majority of the work in Baltimore, but Allen should be fairly established as the 3rd down back in a typically run heavy offense.
      ID: 14720220
      Sun, Sep 02, 2018, 12:52
I messed up the Bernard rationale in MFL....please use this one.

Giovani Bernard, RB CIN
There were enough DE still that I thought I could hold off at that position. This is primarily a handcuff for Mixon, though Bernard can have standalone value in his own right. Hopefully I won't need to use him.
      ID: 545112110
      Sun, Sep 02, 2018, 13:15
20.10 Kalen Ballage, RB, MIA

The next Alvin Kamara. In all seriousness, his skill set looks awfully similar to how Kamara's did coming out of college (excellent pass catcher, big enough to be an every down back, runs so smooth you forget how fast he's running). If Drake gets hurt or is not effective, my bet is Ballage gets a shot. Some would argue Gore is next in line, but I don't think that's reality.
      ID: 53713273
      Sun, Sep 02, 2018, 14:19
14.06 Rishard Matthews, WR, TEN

there are not many receivers left that are expected to reach more than 800 yards. Matthews is one of them. but only if he is healthy. until a few days ago he was on PUP, now it seems that he might be available for week 1. since he is my 4th WR I may not need him immediately, so I am ok if he comes along slowly, as long as he will be a contributor when I need him.

thought a lot about this pick and whom I would like to get in the next few rounds. have some players in my mind, but did not pull the trigger just yet. lets see if my plans are any good or if all those players are picked earlier than I thought.

15.09 Austin Ekeler, RB, LAC

2 words: insurance policy.
I usually fail to get the backups to the RB's I select in the first 3 rounds. This time I did not fail. I don't know if this is because I reached for Ekeler or if this round is just about right for him. he seems to be one of the more talented backups, so as soon as the first backups went it was time to think about him. this was a round ago. WR was more of a priority back then, but not this time. hopefully I won't need to play him all year.

16.06 James Conner, RB, PIT

Le'Veon Bell is still holding out. it seems that he will do the same as last year, so he should report any day from now. against all odds, if he does not show up, I got a starting RB in round 16. And if Bell is out for whichever additional reason (injury, suspension) I have a starting RB as well. I believe this pick is worth the gamble. I don't see many more available RB's that would be the clear #1 of the current starter would be out.

17.09 DeSean Jackson, WR, TBB

I thought about taking Bortles here but saw that only IAC is missing a backup QB and there is good chance that he makes it back to me. So I took DeSean Jackson instead. He isn't getting younger and his 2017 simply sucked, but he looked good in the pre-season and why not take a gamble on him being a productive #2 receiver ahead of youngster Chris Godwin.

18.06 Blake Bortles, QB, JAX

IAC got lucky with the injury of McKinnon and grabbed both potential replacement on the turn. If the draft would have progressed faster it could have been me.
The intended pick here was Bortles. IAC picking 2 RB's and no QB maybe helped me in getting his services. he is the 26th QB off the board and I believe the last one that is capable of regularly throwing for 300+ yards with more TD's than INT's. in week 6 (bye of Brees) he plays the Cowboys which isn't a bad matchup either.

19.09 Chase Edmonds, RB, ARI

he is the clear cut #2 behind David Johnson. If he ever misses some time Edmonds will be the man. the only other RB that I valued this high was John Kelly who went a few picks earlier. I doubt that I will add more RB's in the future, unless there is a McKinnon-like incident.
      ID: 316312520
      Sun, Sep 02, 2018, 14:34
17.13 . Desmond King CB
Filling out s/cb position and this CB had good rookie year. Hopefully his numbers will stay up as he does get tackles and even had a few sacks. Always harder to predict CB numbers.

18.02 . DJ Moore WR
Rookie who could have a good season was too interesting to pass up at this stage with need for another receiver.

19.13 C. Littleton . LB
Hoping for a big jump potentially taking over for Ogletree.
He has good defense in front of him. A bit of a flyer but hopefully by time needed he will have established himself. .
      ID: 211131196
      Sun, Sep 02, 2018, 17:44
18.05 - Darron Lee

looking to round out my LBs. He averaged a respectable 7.5 pts last year and has looked really solid through preseason. Had been looking at him, Jamie Collins and Kiko Alonso here or the prior turn, and the decision got made for me.

19.10 - Clayton Geathers

Once again, Guru grabbed the guy I was targeting for this round a few picks before. Geathers has hardly played in 2 years, but if he is good to go and stays healthy, he doesn’t have a ton of competition for tackles and could put up respectable numbers
      ID: 545112110
      Sun, Sep 02, 2018, 21:16
21.05 Mitchell Trubisky, QB, CHI

Mahomes or bust. If I end up needing Mitch for more than his Week 12 Thanksgiving day matchup against the Lions, I'm probably in trouble. With that said, it's nice to get a QB with some upside this late. I think working with HC Nagy is going to be great for Trubisky's development.
      ID: 316312520
      Mon, Sep 03, 2018, 10:58
20.02 . Dede Westbrook WR
Still filling our WR position and hopefully has some upside with Lee out.

21.13 . M. Gesecki . TE
With Greg Olsen having a 4th week bye needed a TE fill in early. He is unknown as rookie but reports indicate he will likely start and has good potential as pass catcher. Did consider Sefarian-Jenkins my grandson's choice.
      ID: 545112110
      Mon, Sep 03, 2018, 17:07
22.10 Harrison Butker, K, KC

Finally time for a kicker and a solid argument could be made that he's the best.
Young, strong leg, accurate and kicking for a high powered offense. Kickers are a bit of a crapshoot, but I'm pleased to grab Butker here.
      ID: 545112110
      Mon, Sep 03, 2018, 17:13
23.05 Cole Beasley, WR, DAL

My draft wouldn't be complete without a Dallas Cowboy on my team. My hope is that I never need to use Beasley. If I do, my next hope is that him and Dak can rekindle the rapport they once had. He should be able to become Dak's security blanket with Witten retired.
      ID: 316312520
      Mon, Sep 03, 2018, 19:41
22.02 . Chris Ivory RB
If L. McCoy is unable to go, Ivory would benefit. However, with rookie QB, rushing yards may be hard to come by since teams will likely fill the box and dare him to pass.

23.13 . Robbie Gould PK
Needed place kicker and was down to Gould or Boswell depending if one got taken ahead of me. Picked Gould because of last half of season with Grappolo his numbers went up.

24.02 J. Casey DE/DT
Filled in another defensive player and hope he continues his 2017 play.
      ID: 237262718
      Mon, Sep 03, 2018, 20:30
18.13 Akiem Hicks, DE, CHI
I was debating between Hicks and Frank Clark. Hicks seemed like the safer option, as Clark needs to translate his stats to a much larger snap count.

Last year, Hicks was DL#12 by points and DL#18 on a per-game basis. In 2016, he was DL#18 by points and DL #21 on a per-game basis. He seems likely to be a reliable DL2 for my team, and the Bears' addition of Khalil Mack should give him some more 1-on-1 matchups this year.

19.02 Spencer Ware, RB, KC
I was thinking about only drafting 3 RBs, but Fugazi's Dez Bryant pick (I would have likely taken him as my 7th WR if he was still available towards the end of the draft) and the continuing holdout of Bell led me to take a 4th RB.

I don't trust Kareem Hunt, so Ware was somebody I knew I'd be targeting before I did any research this year. I don't necessarily expect an injury, but Hunt was really hot-and-cold last year, including a stretch of 9 consecutive games where he averaged under 48 rushing yards and was held without a TD. If something like that happens again this year, I expect Ware to at least force a timeshare.

Ware's 2016 was almost as good as Hunt's 2017: he had 1368 yards in 14 games. If Ware earns a timeshare, he should be useful. If Hunt gets injured or disappoints and Ware takes over completely, he will likely become a RB1.
      ID: 545112110
      Mon, Sep 03, 2018, 20:45
24.10 Jaylen Samuels, RB, PIT

Deep deeeeeeeep sleeper...because....that's what you are supposed to do with your last pick, right!?! The Bell situation is getting ugly. He's more likely to be my first cut than a difference maker, but I'll take a shot here.
      ID: 237262718
      Mon, Sep 03, 2018, 20:47
20.13 Vontaze Burfict, LB, CIN
There were other LBs I was considering here (most notably Raekwon McMillan), but Burfict has both the biggest upside and the highest per-game floor, so I went with him.

Burfict has averaged 9.7 points per game over the past 3 years, which is clear LB1 territory. He has frequently been suspended or injured, though, and he is currently suspended for the first 4 games while also nursing an injury. As my LB4, I won't need him for those first 4 weeks, and he should be completely healed well in advance of his return.

21.02 Frank Clark, DE, SEA
Clark has put up 19 sacks over the past two seasons while playing only 2/3 of his team's snaps. With Seattle's defense being decimated, Clark has a full-time job this year.

It remains to be seen whether or not he can approach the same pace with a heavier workload and with more attention being paid to him. Additionally, he has been very big-play-dependent, barely making any tackles. As my 3rd DL, though, I can afford to take the chance.
72Slackjawed Yokel
      ID: 547332821
      Mon, Sep 03, 2018, 21:04
11.12 Roquan Smith, LB, Chi

Saw that the highest ranked linebackers available (according to my primary sources) were rookies and second year players. Opted to go to Smith who was the 8th overall selection in the 2018 draft. Hoping he quickly gets acclimated to the NFL game and can produce in line with the experts are saying.

12.03 Penny, Rashaad SEA RB

After first deciding to pick a couple of tight ends that it turns out were picked many rounds ago, went back to Penny. First round selection in the NFL draft (a surprise to many) - let's give him a shot here as my fourth RB. Could be a sleeper.

13.12 Prescott, Dak DAL QB

Already a number of solid backup option at the QB position started to come off the board. Saw another drop-off after Prescott - so decided to grab him here - primarily as insurance for Newton who will likely be a lock in my starting lineup unless he's hampered by injury.

14.03 Hyde, Micah BUF S

Still hadn't filled any defensive back slots, and Hyde stood out as a solid option. A top playmaker with 5 picks and 13 passes defended last year.

15.12 Howard, O.J. TBB TE

Friday night, a bit buzzed, and on the clock in two drafts. Checked rosters, found I was behind in WR, and drafted a TE…. Didn't care so much for the top WR available, and Howard really stood out from the TE position. Looks to be very high potential, and put up good numbers as a rookie. Looks like a solid wr/te backup.

16.03 Buckner, DeForest SFO DT

Still have some starting positions to fill, and DL is one of the more shallow positions in this league. Saw Buckner as a good source of tackles - and as I read up on him, I saw he may get some opportunity to play some DE this year. So, may have more opportunity for sacks as well.

17.12 Weddle, Eric BAL S

At this point, I still need to round out my starting lineup. Still need a stating DB and LB - checked rosters of the two managers that go before my next pick and they both need DB's as well. Weddle is getting up there in age, but has still been putting up solid numbers via tackles and turnovers.

18.03 Alonso, Kiko MIA LB

My third starting linebacker position goes to a familiar name. He had 115 tackles each of the past two seasons, and I expect something similar this year. Of course, he made a huge splash as a rookie, and then suffered through some injuries.

19.12 Ross, John CIN WR

Looked at positional needs and bye weeks, and saw I have a lot of players with a week 11 by week. Only have 3 WR, so receiver became a priority with this pick. Checked out who was available and Ross stood out as someone who has the WR2 position on his team locked up. A bit of an unknown because he effectively missed his entire rookie season because of an injury.

20.03 Gallman, Wayne NYG RB

Fishing here... had him in G24 last year, and he was a good situational start. Here, it's a hold for value in case Barkley gets banged up. RB is certainly a position in which it can often help in stocking up on options/backups just in case.

21.12 Leonard, Darius IND LB

Another rookie LB (added Roquan Smith as a 'starter' much earlier). Second round pick - is expected to land the starting weakside linebacker gig. May be another rough year for the Colts, so, he may get plenty of opportunity for tackles.

22.03 Bryant, Matt ATL PK

Surprised that the top four kickers went rounds ago. Kind of hoping that this would start another run, but it did not. I actually looked at last two seasons to see where I drafted kickers, and it was early in the 23rd round. Because I don't pick until the end of the 23rd, decide to go ahead and grab Bryant here. Dome team, veteran kicker.

23.12 Martin, Doug OAK RB

Didn't really overthink this one. Thought about depth really - can't have too many quality RB/WR - and checked MFL's ranking and ADP - Doug Martin was highest rated. Still name recognition, perhaps? Looks to be the second option in Oakland to Lynch.

24.03 Dorsett, Phillip NEP WR

Still only had 4 WR, so decided to go that direction. It's always tricky to see who will emerge as the top producers in New England at the RB/WR position - so worth using this pick on Dorsett. With Edelman starting the year on suspension - it'll give Dorsett a chance to step up.
      ID: 237262718
      Mon, Sep 03, 2018, 21:13
22.13 D'Onta Foreman, RB, HOU
We have an IR slot, so I might as well use it by handcuffing Lamar Miller with his only talented backup.

23.02 Danny Amendola, WR, MIA
I'd been watching a group of 7 target WRs for seemingly forever, waiting for it to dwindle down far enough where I'd be forced to make a decision. That group included Amendola, Mike Williams, Cameron Meredith, Josh Doctson, Kenny Golladay, Quincy Enunwa, and (undrafted).

I still had no DBs standing out to me, and the group of WRs was down to 4, so I made myself choose one. I went with the most boring option, with an eye on "most likely to have a substantial role".

Amendola is old, he has never broken 700 yards in a season, and Jalen Ramsey has some strong negative opinions about him. That said, he has been great on a per-snap basis and pretty good on a per-game basis, and he seemed to be the most likely WR remaining to rack up targets.

During the last 3 years, Jarvis Landry has ranked 6th, 15th, and 4th in targets from that particular slot position, and none of Miami's primary WRs seem to be in line for any serious time in the slot. Amendola's role should be clear pretty quickly, so he will likely be one of my first drops if he's not getting 7+ targets per game.
      ID: 237262718
      Mon, Sep 03, 2018, 21:42
24.13 Eric Berry, S, KC
I won't be drafting a kicker, but I will have an extra roster slot available after I move D'Onta Foreman to the IR, so I'll add one in the next few days.

If Berry was healthy, he probably would have gone several rounds ago. Last year, after complaining of a sore heel in the preseason, he tore his Achilles tendon in week 1. His heel is sore again now, and he is iffy for the first game. It looks bad, and I'm expecting to drop him this weekend for an active DB. As a last rounder, though, I might as well go for the upside in case he actually does start. Maybe everybody is just being extra cautious because of what happened last year.
      ID: 211131196
      Tue, Sep 04, 2018, 03:02
20.05 - Wil Lutz
Have come to regret this pick here. It was unnecessary, I’m sure I could’ve waited until the next round for this or equivalent but clearly couldn’t wait on Yeldon as handcuff.

21.10 - Corey Grant
When Yeldon isn’t available... considered snagging someone else’s handcuff here, but arguably grant stands to benefit just as much as Yeldon in the event of a fournette injury, which hopefully does not happen.

22.05 - Courtland Sutton
Obligatory Bronco pick. Who knows how many targets / passes he actually catches this year, but he’s an exciting young prospect on a team that can utilize some pass catching depth, something he hopefully can deliver on in the future.

23.10 - BJ Goodson

Solid when healthy! He’s still really young, hopefully he plays more this year and can keep up with last years numbers when he does.

24.05 - Marshon Lattimore

Last pick! Phew. I don’t usually target cornerbacks, but Lattimore had an excellent rookie season last year. Who knows how the rookie corner rule will play out and his production could certainly drop off, but if not, he has some viability week to week based on matchup.
      ID: 53713273
      Tue, Sep 04, 2018, 05:26
20.06 Jared Cook, TE, OAK

thought about a LB or a backup TE here. I see that too many everydown LB's I am comfortable with are still available and most teams, until I am up again, already have 3, so at least one of them should make it back to me. TE options are getting thinner and I don't know how many want to carry a 2nd TE into the season. it could be that some go until I am up again, so I better pick one now than too late.

as a 2nd TE I considered: Cook, Watson, McDonald and Butt. took Cook who was rated the highest of them.

21.09 Malcolm Smith, LB, SF

I wanted a 3rd LB into the IDP slot. penciled down the LB's that are everydown players. narrowed that number down to players that were productive in the past or that are expected to provide above average tackle numbers this year. The end result were 3 guys: Smith, Cunningham and McMillan. So Smith joined my team. it doesn't hurt that his bye-week does not interfere with the bye weeks of my other IDP's.

22.06 Zach Cunningham, LB, HOU

the last 3-down LB I considered picking. bye-week fills in nicely with all my other IDP's. not much more to say. probably the first player dropped in favor of the hot waiver add in week 1.

2 picks left and still missing: starting DL and starting PK.

23.09 Jabaal Sheard, DL, IND

we need to start 2 DL's every week. There is not much difference between most DL's. often the difference lies in the matchup and if it offers better opportunities for sacks.

Sheard had a high snap count in 2017 and was in for 84% of all defensive plays. this means he is top 10 in volume of opportunity. If he makes the most of these opportunities he could be a valuable DL. if not, I will ride the weekly matchup.

24.06 Mason Crosby, PK, GB

most kickers score the same over a season. they have peaks in performance and depend on how good their offense is in either getting the yards but don't score the TD, or score the TD. if you have the kicker of a team that scores a lot of TD's, the kicker won't score as much as when you have the kicker of a team that consistently fails in the red zone. too bad that this can't be really predicted.

for now I took a kicker where the offense is led by the best QB in the league. this should automatically give him opportunities. lets see if this are FG or XP opportunities.
Rate this thread:
5 (top notch)
4 (even better)
3 (good stuff)
2 (lightweight)
1 (no value)
If you wish, you may rate this thread on scale of 1-5. Ratings should indicate how valuable or interesting you believe this thread would be to other users of this forum. A '5' means that this thread is a 'must read'. A '1' means that this is a complete waste of time.

If you have previously rated this thread, rating it again will delete your previous rating.

If you do not want to rate this thread, but want to see how others have rated it, then click the button without entering a rating, or else click here.

RotoGuru Football Forum

View the Forum Registry

XML Get RSS Feed for this thread

Self-edit this thread

Post a reply to this message: RIFC 2018: Draft Rationale Collection Thread

Click here to create and insert a link
Click here to insert a block of hidden (spoiler) text
Click here to insert a random spelling of Roethlisberger
Ignore line feeds? no (typical)   yes (for HTML table input)

Viewing statistics for this thread
Period# Views# Users
Last hour11
Last 24 hours33
Last 7 days65
Last 30 days3220
Since Mar 1, 20071317430