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0 Subject: RIFC 2019: Draft rationale collection thread

Posted by: Guru
- [330592710] Sun, Aug 25, 2019, 14:38

We'll use the same process for collecting rationales as last year.

You have a choice. You may either post your rationale in the comment area next to the associated pick on the MFL draft page,

- or -

you may post each rationale in this thread. Anything posted here will take precedence over anything posted on MFL.

Regardless, each rationale is due no later than two rounds in arrears. I understand that, especially when queues are used, staying within two rounds will be difficult. However, please try to stay relatively current.

I will set up a master thread for all Rationales that will be organized in the proper draft sequence. So don't worry about the sequence here.
1taxman
      SuperDude
      ID: 029463114
      Sun, Aug 25, 2019, 23:44
1.13 Jones, Julio ATL WR

I drew 4th for picking draft slots. Had I drawn the 1st choice I would have taken 13th as well. I have never enjoyed holding a turn around/back-to-back (1st or 14th) draft slot. Quite happy with the draw.

With interfering real life commitments, I was forced to use the pre-draft queue for first 2 rounds. My target for round 1 was Kelce, but instead somehow Julio Jones, a consistent 1st tier WR, fell into my lap. Quite happy with the pick.
2Da Bomb
      Donor
      ID: 487112814
      Mon, Aug 26, 2019, 00:17
1.03 McCaffrey, Christian CAR RB

Positions 3, 5, and 6 were available and I chose 3 to secure one of Barkley, Kamara or McCaffrey, who are the industry consensus top 3 picks. I had a straightforward selection after Barkley and Kamara went first and second.
3youngroman
      ID: 15510187
      Mon, Aug 26, 2019, 03:27
0.11
slots 3-6 are available. There are 4 top RB including Zeke still holding out. I thought about #3 but I don't like picking that high, also because of the Banzai format. #6 would be my preferred choice, but the players that I expect to be available are pretty much equal to players that go at the end of round 1. I see 5 players that are slightly above the others. With Zeke holding out I better take #4 and pick the RB that is left over or play it safe with Hopkins.

1.05 DeAndre Hopkins, WR, HOU
Zeke is still holding out. Every 12 hours there is "breaking" news that is not as breaking at all. He is still not in camp and in danger of missing week 1 or getting a reduced workload because he was not with the team. this moves him down my rankings. I also read an article that the last few guys holding out were injured during the season or played poorly. another sign to stay off Zeke, although he is still young and probably not that vulnerable compared to the others holding out.

So Hopkins it is. on most draft boards he is the #1 WR which usually goes at #5 to #7. so #4 seems like a reach but with the uncertainty of Zeke it is just about right for me. He will be the foundation of my team trying to get 1500Yds and 10 TDs.

now that I picked Hopkins I am expecting that Zeke lands in Dallas any minute and signs a new deal with the Cowboys and rushes for 2000 yards.
4SwinganaMiss
      ID: 356281721
      Mon, Aug 26, 2019, 05:37
Draft Slot 12
I had an early choice for a change, so didn't know what to do. I don't like the turns, but I saw a little drop around 31-32 players in the first 3 rounds of ADP. So, I went with a slot that could get me 3 of those 31.

1.12 Davante Adams, WR GB
With this pick I was expecting a choice of maybe Kelce, Bell, or Beckham but wasn't entirely sure which way I would go. The RBs went quick, thus was actually pretty thrilled to be able to get Adams. He is ranked WR 1 or 2 in most ranking sets. A week ago I thought Chubb might make it here---but the hype train really got rolling with him.
5Toral
      ID: 9541311
      Mon, Aug 26, 2019, 08:21

0.07 Draft Slot 10

My preference was draft slot 12. It was a popular choice Ė first among the late choices here, 1st in one of the AAAs. In a banzai league I like to pick close to the turn but not on it, so 13 and 11 would have been my next preferences. 10 wasn't bad considering that I picked 7th.

1.10 Joe Mixon, RB, Cin

After 1.08 I had some time to mull things over. The running backs to consider were Johnson, Mixon and Bell. The Cardinals hope to run the most plays in the league, and Johnson will be a big part of that; however the OL is bad, and [undrafted] may steal some close-in touchdowns. Bell is an immense talent; but he's playing behind a much worse OL than he had in Pittsburgh, on a worse team with negative game scripts, has taken a year off, and is playing for a coach who doesn't want him and likes to split carries between his RBs and is already talkng about Bell's splitting touches with [undrafted].

At one point I had Bell higher in my pre-draft list, but in the end went with Mixon. Mixon has the ability to be a three-down back, has no serious competition except for some 3rd-down pass situations, and is in his third year, in the up-trajectory years whereas the other two have nowhere to go but down. In the end they all went in a row, Johnson, Mixon, Bell.
6Toral
      ID: 9541311
      Mon, Aug 26, 2019, 13:35

2.05 Ju-Ju Smith-Schuster, WR, Pit

#6/7 consensus WR, WRs drop off from here. 100 catches, 1300 yards, 8 or 9 TDs projected. Poor Antonio Brown went crazy when he realized that he would no longer be the #1 WR in Pittsburgh this year, and hasn't been the same since.

ALSO CONSIDERED: Tyler Lockett (2.10) worthy of consideration here counting his kick returning capability. However I question whether he'll be doing so much kick returning this year.
7youngroman
      ID: 15510187
      Mon, Aug 26, 2019, 16:09
2.11 Damien Williams, RB, KC
after taking a WR in round 1, I better take a 3-down RB in round 2. not many of them are left and I don't expect one to be available in 14 picks.
My list included: Fournette, Williams, Jones, Mack.
Fournette went a few picks earlier, so the next best on the list was taken. Williams is the #1 RB for one of the best offenses in the league. even if he loses snaps to other RB's, he showed at the end of last year that he can be a very efficient RB and still get near 100yds with a TD in any given week. This is the kind of player that you need to expect at this point.

3.11 Mark Ingram, RB, BAL
the closer it got to this pick the more I hoped for Mack, Carson or Jacobs to survive. They did not. Since it is another 14 picks until I am up again I am pretty sure that no quality RB (Gordon, Michel, Lindsay, Duke Johnson, Montgomery) will be left then, so I better take one here as long as the draft value is there.

the runners in Baltimore look crowded, but I don't expect as many QB runs as last year. They signed Ingram for a reason. Ingram co-existed with Kamara in New Orleans, which means that he should be able to do the same in Baltimore. Baltimore loves to run and I believe that Ingram will get the largest share of them.
8SwinganaMiss
      ID: 356281721
      Mon, Aug 26, 2019, 16:49
2.03 Dalvin Cook, RB MIN
I typically don't want to start w/o a RB in first rd, or in worst case second round. So despite JuJu being available, it was really about Cook or Gurley for me here. Gurley has enough flags around him that I went with the hopefully lower risk player with just as high of an upside. If Cook can stay healthy he can push into the top 5ish RBs. Still some injury concern, but decided I didn't want to mess with the Gurley question marks.
9SwinganaMiss
      ID: 356281721
      Mon, Aug 26, 2019, 22:29
3.03 Chris Carson, RB SEA
The Carson hype has officially sucked me in. Can't find much of a bad tidbit about him these days, and the other back in SEA doesn't seem to be putting up much of a fight. My Carson exposure is rather high this year as a result. I almost went with Freeman or Allen here, but ultimately sticking with Carson. There are vacated carries and vacated targets galore, so even if the other back comes around, there is still plenty of opportunity for Carson to score as an RB1 for this run-heavy team.
10taxman
      SuperDude
      ID: 029463114
      Mon, Aug 26, 2019, 23:49
2.02 Odell Beckham WR CLE
I was forced to Draft out of a queue for the first 2 rounds of this Draft. I targeted Kelce for 1st round and Mahomes for the second round. Had I courageously entered only those 2 players in my Pre-Draft Queue, I would have been successful ... Hind sight is always 20-20.
Instead I listed the top 15 by my ranking. Managers selected players not on mtblist and as a result I missed Kelce by 1 pick and missed Mahomes by 2 picks. I wound up book end WRs: Julio Jones and Odell Beckham, easily 2 of anyones pre-season top 5 receivers. No complaints. That deep in the draft I was not expecting top tier RBs. I expected to get quality players and that is what happened.

Now lets see the results when I get to draft in real time.
11Da Bomb
      Donor
      ID: 487112814
      Tue, Aug 27, 2019, 00:05
2.12 George Kittle, TE, SF

After taking McCaffrey in round 1 I leaned toward going WR or TE here. There's a top tier of TEs in Kelce, Kittle and Ertz and I hoped to land one of Kittle or Ertz based on ADP. A lot of managers will need to start dicey TEs in this deep of a league and I wanted to avoid that for my squad if the value was there.
12SwinganaMiss
      ID: 356281721
      Tue, Aug 27, 2019, 17:20
4.03 Robert Woods, WR LAR

One of my biggest "regrets" last year was virtually no exposure to either LAR or KC. The two top scoring offenses, and the huge game they played late in the season, and I had no part of it. So, I have given some priority to getting a piece of these offenses. This pick was between Godwin and Woods all the way. I decided to stick to my priority and get a piece of LAR in this spot. I will be keeping an eye on PhillyBusters this year, since he grabbed my "second choice" in each of the last 3 rounds. Time will tell if I made the right choices.
13Da Bomb
      Donor
      ID: 487112814
      Wed, Aug 28, 2019, 03:07
3.12 Brandin Cooks, WR, LAR

I didn't feel compelled to take any of the available RBs as my RB2 and figured I should be able to get a satisfactory option over my next set of picks, so I will get started on WR. Cooks has played in all 16 games in each of the past 4 seasons, and is very good every year despite playing for 3 different teams over the past 3 seasons. Coming back to the same Rams system this year can give him something to build upon after setting a career high in yards last season.

4.12 Tyler Boyd, WR, CIN

There's an extra importance on WR in this league needing to start 2-3 every week amongst 14 teams and the ability to start 4 during the bye weeks. Boyd had that classic year 3 WR breakout last season and is in position to further improve as the team's #1 option for however many games AJ Green will miss.
14youngroman
      ID: 15510187
      Wed, Aug 28, 2019, 06:59
4.11 Eugene Marquis Hilton, WR, IND
I had another hard time with this pick. A few picks ago I pretty much settled on taking Kupp only to lose him in the last second. Back then I did not want to research further because Kupp looked too good compared to the other options at WR/TE/QB.

T.Y. Hilton lost Andrew Luck a few days ago. until then he was selected as a top 10 WR. everyone counts on him getting less yards and TD's without Luck. I am no exception. when you look at exactly the same QB-WR combo used in 2017, Hilton reached almost 1000 yards with only 4 TD. The offense line back then was nothing special and his QB was only a few weeks with the team prior to being the starter. I believe that this time around this combo should do slightly better, but not as good as a Hilton-Luck combo. the floor is the 1000yd + 4 TD = 124pts from 2017. This is pretty much the points value that all other interesting WR's are projected to score. but Hilton has the upside of doing better than 2 years ago. and I hope for that.

5.04 O.J. Howard, TE, TBB
with 2 RB and 2 WR on the roster the initial plan was to pick a different position. It is not yet time to pick defenders, so I looked at the top talent available. I see some WR's, 3 TE and some QB's that are draftable around this pick. since I already have 2 WR's I don't want to fill all starting slots that early. There should be lots of WR available later on. so QB or TE it is. out of the available players I like Howard and Rodgers the most. In the end I settled for Howard because I don't believe that he, Engram and Henry will be around at 6.11 and all other TE's don't make a huge difference. The potential QB options available at 6.11 are not that different to Rodgers. I feel more comfortable with Howard + Wentz/Wilson/G/B/W/P/... than with Rodgers + McDonald/E/N
17Toral
      ID: 9541311
      Wed, Aug 28, 2019, 13:13

4.05 Kenny Golladay, WR, Det

The Master Plan calls for skill players for the first 5 rounds. The good TEs are gone, so a WR is required here.

I spent an inordinate amount of time comparing the revised projections for Golladay and T. Y. Hilton, In 3 separate projections they came out about the same.

Golladay is a controversial selection this year, largely due to doubts, not about him or his QB so much, but about the offence in general and the head coach.

Hilton could very well do much better than projected, with a better OL, Head Coach, and maybe a team spirit that says ďWe'll show themĒ. He was definitely a steal at 4.11. But I believe that Stafford is still a skilled QB, that Golladay is an up-and-coming talent, and the Lions' prime target between the twenties.

ALSO CONSIDERED: Dede Westbrook (4.09) but training camp reports have questioned whether he will be still be used as much on punt returns, considering his value to the offence.
18Toral
      ID: 9541311
      Wed, Aug 28, 2019, 13:17

3.05 Derrick Henry, RB, Ten

One of the advantages of drafting late in Banzai format is the chance to start with two good RBs. Folks say, ďOh, you only need one during the bye weeksĒ -- but two are required during the playoffs.

There was a break heading into the 3rd round and I had time to contemplate my options before heading off to church. There were two RBs I coveted Ė Aaron Jones (3.01) and Chris Carson. I figured it was safe to leave a two-man queue, becuz there was no way anyone was going to pick Carson before me. During the last few weeks I've watched his ADP move up from mid-4th to early-4th to late 3rd to mid-3rd Ė but surely not this high, I thot.

I was, of course, wrong, and Carson went at 3.03. Kerryon Johnson, who I might have thought of, was gone too. Devonta Freeman (3.07) has the same bye week as Mixon, cutting him out of the picture. Marlon Mack (3.09) was one of the victims of Luck's sudden retirement.

So Derrick Henry it is. The question is which Derrick Henry -- the one who stunk up the joint for 12 weeks last year, or the one who went for 238 yards and 4 TDs, in what would have won the week for lots of people except that no one was starting him by that time. He did win me a Toilet Bowl and first draft choice in one league so I kind of owed him. Henry could run for 1000 yards and 10 TDs. Or not. I did check to see that he was out of his walking boot and back to practice before drafting him.
19SwinganaMiss
      ID: 356281721
      Wed, Aug 28, 2019, 17:17
5.12 Evan Engram, TE NYG
For this pick I was mulling over whether to go after my first IDP. I was debating whether Mack was a top 3 DE for this year. The other thought was Alshon, who went just a couple picks later. There were plenty of other WR3 types still available, so I went ahead and grabbed the last of the "2nd 3" in terms of TE because I really didn't want to mess with deciding between two lower-level TE. This way I can set it and hopefully forget it.
20SwinganaMiss
      ID: 356281721
      Wed, Aug 28, 2019, 17:30
6.03 Khalil Mack, DE CHI
I thought about the Mack pick overnight, and pulled the trigger the next morning. It's no guarantee that he is a top 5 DE, but I'm not going to doubt him. He finished 5th in ppg at the position (thought he missed a couple of games). There are a lot of similar LB, and no need to touch DB. If Jeffrey had still been there, I might've thought harder. But he wasn't, so it became an easy enough choice.
21SwinganaMiss
      ID: 356281721
      Wed, Aug 28, 2019, 17:36
7.12 Blake Martinez, LB GB
Enough LB have gone off the board, so it was time to see if any Tier 1 were left. Looked clear enough that Blake should be coming off soon. I saw him near the top in many projections. I want to have one solid LB. Last year, I had to deal with Deion Jones IR after 1 game, which was no fun. Hopefully my #1 can stay healthy this time around. Other considerations for this pick were Kirk or a QB.
23taxman
      SuperDude
      ID: 029463114
      Wed, Aug 28, 2019, 18:32
3.02 Johnson, Kerryon DET RB
Starting the draft with 2 WRs pretty much mandated I focus on RB. Still handicapped into use of the queue function, I happily obtained my preferred choice, Johnson, over Devonta Freeman & Marlon Mack. The "expert commentators" pretty much agree Detroit will focus this season on running the ball as long as game score dictates. That may be due to depleted WR talent, but I believe in his sophomore year, Kerryon will join the league's elite 3 down RBs. Detroit sent 2018 3rd down back Theo Riddick packing to Denver confirming the plan. Competition for touches are grizzled C J Anderson and late round rookie Johnson.
24taxman
      SuperDude
      ID: 029463114
      Wed, Aug 28, 2019, 19:23
4.02 Johnson, Duke HOU RB
An early round 4 pick is like looking into the void .. @ 25 picks occur before you can draft again. A run on a position can be a big problem. Also, I needed a 2nd RB and saw a barren cupboard with Lindsey, Coleman and Peterson as possibilities.

My first live (not using queue) pick of the draft. What a doozy. Two days ago I never imagined Duke Johnson would go in 4th round (and maybe that thought still has merit). After 2 days of manual labor packing up 30 yers of lake house accumulation/memories, literally the 1st sports news I see (15 minutes before my pick and on the way to bed) is that Lamar Miller is headed to IR leaving Duke as sole experienced Houston RB (before NFL waiver wire/trade options explored). I jumped at this gamble/opportunity because of less than appealing other options AND I believe Duke has starting RB talent but was always blocked by another (which could mean he really isn't early down material). Duke is a proven 3rd down RB and possibly gets the 1st/2nd down carries abandoned by Miller. Even if Houston does find another early round option, Duke still provides 3rd down value. For me, a risk worth taking. A real shot in the dark here. Not unlike odds of Joe Namath and NY Jets in yesteryear. That worked OK.
25Slackjawed Yokel
      ID: 547332821
      Wed, Aug 28, 2019, 23:17
1.06 Nick Chubb, RB, Cle
Well, I had the last pick of draft slots which gave me the 6th selection. Was hoping Hopkins would fall here. With him off the board I opted to go RB instead. Chubb almost topped 1000 yards last season despite only getting 2-3 carries a game until week 7. With the now high-powered Browns offense (crazy, right?), he has the size/strength to get a dozen TD's.

2.09 Antonio Brown, WR, Oak
Knew I wanted to get a top WR with this pick, but agonized over which one. Opted to shy away from Hilton given Luck's uncertain status (which did turn out to be the right decision). Then, wavered between Brown and Lockett. Brown has some question marks, and may not face any game action with his new team until Week 1. Lockett put up huge numbers last year, and with Baldwin out of the pictures should be in line for more targets. This might be one I look back and regret, but in the end, I opted to buy low with AB instead of buying high with Lockett.

3.09 Marlon Mack, RB, Ind
Was targeting Henry with this pick. With him off the board, I briefly considered TY Hilton, but with Luck announcing his retirement, it's possible he may slip another round. (I did briefly look at his 2017 stats and they were quite pedestrian compared to the 2016/2018 numbers with Luck at the helm). A couple of running backs started looking like good options until there was a bit of a dropoff. Considered Sony Michel, but ended up going with Mack. With the Pats, you can never be sure who if anyone has a lock on the primary RB position.. so I went with Mack over Michel. It's likely that Mack's numbers will also suffer without Luck, but have to think he'll be less affected than the WR's.

4.09 Dede Westbrook, WR, Jax
User error hereÖ problem with technology and accessing the site from three different types of devices I suppose. But, my intention was to make a 3-man queue of Hilton, Watson, and Westbrook. Will double-check that my queue actually shows up as-intended going forward. I am glad that Watson was actually picked before it got to me, so I didn't get too aggravated about my error. Westbrook likely has much higher upside than Hilton, so I think I can live with this.. and maybe Hilton will even make it back to me next round.

5.06 J.J. Watt, DE, Hou
Had been debating picking up Watt here, and when I saw Aaron Donald just went off the board with the preceding pick, that confirmed my instinct. When healthy, Watt puts up dominant numbers; he stayed healthy last year. Hoping for more of the same this season.

6.09 Kenyan Drake, RB, MIA
Seems in recent years I've had to load up on mediocre running backs to try to find a viable backup for bye weeks or injuries. Still may need to do that, but opted to grab a third RB who seems to have a lock on the starting job.

7.06 Deion Jones, Atl, LB
One pick prior to mine and I had time to scope things out. Need a QB, TE, LB at key positions. There are 5 QB's that I'd be happy with at this point - all similar projectionsÖ and 5 managers between now and my next pick that still need QB's. I think it's doubtful that they all are picked. No real standouts in the TE pool, so decided on a top LB.

8.09 Jared Goff, QB, LAR
The list of 5 QB's I was willing to grab has dropped to two (Goff and Brees). Ended up siding with youth here - Brees is much more efficient, but simply does not throw the ball nearly as much as Goff, so hoping the gunslinging continues in LA.
26Da Bomb
      Donor
      ID: 487112814
      Thu, Aug 29, 2019, 13:47
5.03 Tevin Coleman, RB, SF

This is the last opportunity to select an RB2 I would be confident with. Although he will be sharing the workload (not too many arenít), he should usually get the majority of the carries.

6.12 AJ Green, WR, CIN

He will miss a chunk of games to begin the season, but a risk at this point in the draft feels better than one in an earlier round. As my WR3, the goal is to have enough elsewhere on my team without him to reach the playoffs so should he be healthy for them, he offers more upside than most other WR that will go next.

7.03 Will Fuller, WR, HOU

My 4th WR but I wanted a good one while AJ Green is out and a 4th WR usually gets started a lot to fill in for byes and other potential injuries. Heís coming off an ACL tear but all reports are that he is back to full health and his production with Watson healthy at QB has been elite.

8.12 Lavonte David, LB, TB

Time to get started on IDP. Heís a proven top producer but is coming off a recent knee procedure. Hopefully he will be ready for Week 1. Maybe Kwon Alexanderís departure will open up even more opportunities for him, but the Bucs did draft his replacement Devin White 5th overall.

9.03 Miles Sanders, RB, PHI

I feel thereís waning talent at RB and the difference is enough that I will hold off on another IDP. Sanders works as my RB3 because even though the team depth chart is muddled to begin the season, I am hoping his talent will win out over the course of a few games where he can potentially be a starter for my team too at some point.

10.12 Chris Jones, DT, KCC

He was a notch above other available DL based on last yearís production after breaking out in his 3rd year with 15.5 sacks.
27youngroman
      ID: 15510187
      Thu, Aug 29, 2019, 14:01
6.11 Luke Kuechly, LB, CAR
the initial plan was to pick a QB here, but since too many equal options are still available I can wait for another few picks. At worst DaBomb, IAC + Tree each take a QB.

Shortly thought about a 3rd WR but the options are not very tempting. on the defensive side LB's usually get the focus early on. since only a few were taken till now I am assured a top-5 LB. with 1 pick to go I settled on either Kuechly or Deion Jones.

Kuechly is one of the top LB's for a few years now and I hope not much will change this season.

7.04 Josh Gordon, WR, NE
I initially thought that I should get a QB here, but after looking at the next 10 available players they are more or less equal. I even see the recently taken Wentz and Mayfield in that field. Because of that I wait until the field is thinner and pick one of the remains.

thought about taking a 2nd LB, but the available ones are plenty so I saw no reason to pick one.

this can't be said about WR. teams 1-3 already filled their starters and 8 out of 10 of the other teams still need a #3. my expectation is that some of them would have thinned the pool even more, so I better take one now than too late.
I thought a lot about taking Josh Gordon. he was one of the best receivers a few years ago before the suspensions kicked in. he was reinstated last week and since the Patriots are thin at WR and Gordon/Brady showed some chemistry last year I thought that it might be worth the gamble. at worst he does not play in week 1 and plays like an average WR the rest of the season. but in a best-case scenario he plays week 1 and gets a lot of looks that would have gone to Gronk.

8.11 Devin Bush, LB, PIT
one last time to pass on QB's. I am pretty sure to pick one at 9.04.

trying to fill starting slots. The offense is pretty much set, so I better take a defense player. I am not a fan of picking a DL or DB early, so LB is my preferred choice. my queue from the start of the round included Bush and Mosley. Toral took Mosley, but Bush was still there.

Bush is a rookie that gets a lot of praise in Pittsburgh. some projections believe he can get double digit sacks. I don't know if I should trust them, but this is the best source of information I have. The most important thing is that he will be on the field for all 3 downs to maximize the tackle opportunities. with 2 LB already drafted I need at least one more additional LB that fits this description.
28SwinganaMiss
      ID: 356281721
      Thu, Aug 29, 2019, 17:24
8.03 Cam Newton, QB CAR
I took a look at QB, since it would be another 20+ picks before my next turn. I'm a big Cam fan, as I have had him several time in RG14. I like to think that he can be in that upper echelon if he can stay healthy. There are some questions about that right now, but reports seem pretty good. Hoping that Cam will be better than whatever might've gotten around to me by next turn. Nothing else stood out. Was thinking about Latavius Murray for a moment, but figured I can find a suitable RB later.
29SwinganaMiss
      ID: 356281721
      Thu, Aug 29, 2019, 17:32
9.12 Matt Breida, RB SF
I'm pretty high on Breida this year---once again a victim of twitter fever. UNDRAFTED just had another setback, and Breida has looked good in the preseason. I will evaluate how this backfield splits and decide where to go from there. The other players I considered here would have been Kwon and Curtis Samuel. Ultimately, I prioritized 3rd RB over 3rd WR, but I was definitely starting to get nervous for a 3rd WR.
30taxman
      SuperDude
      ID: 029463114
      Thu, Aug 29, 2019, 21:59
5.13 Rodgers, Aaron GBP QB

Rodgers a bit spotty past couple of years, but potential to dominate continues unabated. New head Coach/OC will be bring needed changes to Packers offense. Stablity @ RB & #1 WR with a more seasoned secondary receiving corp will help break 5000 yards/30 TDs/10 ints. Could use some TE help here. Pulled the trigger a round early, but got my target QB.
31taxman
      SuperDude
      ID: 029463114
      Thu, Aug 29, 2019, 22:08
6.02 Vander Esch, Leighton DAL LB
Stud. Should approach 100 tackles and another 40 assists, with 6 TFL. A high floor weekly point producer that could surprise with more turnovers. Another targeted player obtained.
32taxman
      SuperDude
      ID: 029463114
      Thu, Aug 29, 2019, 22:39
7.13 McDonald, Vance PIT TE
With all elite TEs gone, hoped to grab potential breakout candidate from next tier. Another player I had targeted pre draft. Showed flashes last year, but has dealt with injuries. PIT will employ an 11 formation offense most downs which is 3 WR/RB/TE configuration. An excellent red zone target with great connection to QB and with no Jesse James to split snaps. Somebody besides JuJu will soak up the traded Antonio Brown targets and my bet is that befits McDonald more so than Conner/Moncrief/Washington/Johnston.
34Toral
      ID: 9541311
      Fri, Aug 30, 2019, 08:18

9.10 Kyler Murray, QB, Ari

MFL ate my comment there, so I'll reproduce it here as best as I can remember.

This, the experts say, is the deepest QB crop in NFL fantasy history. So I had no compunction in planning to draft my first QB in round 9, followed by one with a complementary schedule in round 10. The last QB I would have varied this plan a bit for went in round 6 (Wentz).

I spent quite a lot of time dithering between Murray and Roethlisberger (10.01) here. May have been a mistake, but I opted for youth wnd energy over age and experience. Oh, and the QB experts strongly preferred Murray. Hope they know what they're talking about.
35Da Bomb
      Donor
      ID: 487112814
      Sat, Aug 31, 2019, 00:15
11.03 Dak Prescott, QB, DAL

Every other team has selected at least 1 QB and 2 teams have backups. I'd like to keep putting it off but I sense a backup QB run coming at some point soon so it's time to get my starter just in case. There are a lot of things to like about Dak going into his 4th season including playing a full season with Amari Cooper, the hopeful improvement of Michael Gallup, Kellen Moore calling plays, and the ability to score TDs on the ground.

12.12 Shawn Williams, DB, CIN

There seems to be a lot of team swapping or position adjustments among last year's most productive DBs which creates uncertainty with the new situations. That does not apply to Shawn Williams who should have another productive season as the SS for a defense that is expected to be on the field a lot.

13.03 Tahir Whitehead, LB, OAK

Can hopefully repeat his productive season for the Raiders as my LB2.

14.12 Jimmy Garoppolo, QB, SF

Not too many QBs left. Jimmy has some upside as he enters his second try as a full time starter coming off last season's torn ACL and playing for a Kyle Shanahan offense.

15.03 Justice Hill, RB, BAL

Hill's skillset should carve out an immediate role which has the chance to grow with time as his speed and elusiveness are the best out of the Ravens' currently crowded RB depth chart.
36Slackjawed Yokel
      ID: 547332821
      Sat, Aug 31, 2019, 08:50
9.06 David Njoku, TE, Cle
Need-based pick here. Ton of defensive players are going off the board, but wanted to get a decent tight end before they disappeared. With Beckham in the fold, catches may be at a premium, but thinking that Mayfield will find a place for Njoku - hopefully in the redzone.

10.09 Dante Pettis, WR, SF
Scanning the other rosters saw I was one of two managers that still only had 2 WR, and one already had 4 - checked what was available, and Pettis stood out among the other options. Much more upside than the other big names that were locked in roles -problem is those big names are well past their prime.. Seems like his role is uncertain, but he showed a lot of potential in his rookie season.

11.06 DeForest Buckner, DL, SF
DL is one position that suffers from a fairly rapid dropoff after the top couple of tiers are off the board. As I left for work I queued two candidates- Chris Jones and Buckner. Jones ended up going 8 picks earlier, but Buckner dropped all the way here. I'll be quite happy if he repeats or improves on his 12-sack, 50+ tackle performance from a year ago.

12.08 Eric Ebron, TE, IND
I like the flexibility that an extra startable TE provides in this format. Certainly seemed like Ebron was a sure-bet compared to some of the top remaining WR's that I contemplated. Had a resurgence last year in Indy. With the big change in QB, I'm still expecting him to be a safety blanket of sorts - thinking he'll suffer less of a dropoff than the wideouts. Saw the top DB's go off the board, and was originally leaning that way - but it looked like there was still a lot of talent left, and I can wait to start filling in my defensive backfield.

13.06 Antoine Bethea, S, NYG
Running up to this pick I entered a 1-man queue of Julius PeppersÖ I saw he was selected, but still wanted to address my lack of DB... so went to the other end of the spectrum and picked Bethea (35 y/o vs 23 y/o) Looking at his stats from last year, the man had 100 solo tackles - unbelievable. Hopefully this is not the year that father time catches up with him.

14.09 Josh Allen, QB, Buf
Looks like there is starting to be a trickle of backup qb's coming the board - decided to grab Josh Allen while I could. What he's able to do with his legs helps offset some of his shortcomings in the air as a young qb. In fact, I think his ground-game should allow him to put up consistent points week-in week-out as witnessed by his 5 running TD's in the last 6-weeks of the 2018 season. postscript: it's always satisfying when you're at the beginning of a run, and after I picked Allen, 3 QB's were selected in the next 5 picks.
37Toral
      ID: 9541311
      Sat, Aug 31, 2019, 08:51

10.05 Jameis Winston, QB, TB

MFL just will *not* allow me to post my Winston comment there. It's eaten 2 of them.

I have a better explanation now than I did when I drafted Winston anyway. Fantasy Pros sent out an e-mail yesterday listing 11 players who could win your league Winston was the top QB listed. Their reasons? "Winston may have the best weapons in the league. Not just that, but he now has Bruce Arians calling the plays, a very weak running game, and a horrendous defense."

Mind you, there are other people who think he could lose his job by mid-season. No risk, no reward.
38SwinganaMiss
      ID: 356281721
      Sat, Aug 31, 2019, 12:38
10.03 Curtis Samuel, WR CAR
Nothing really changed since last round. I am nervous to get a 3rd WR, and wouldn't mind another LB like Kwon. I figure I can go for the Offense again, as they could be harder to find. I need at least 3 and sometimes 4Ö.so getting a 3rd decent one is priority. I don't love stacking with Cam, but hopefully it works out.
39SwinganaMiss
      ID: 356281721
      Sat, Aug 31, 2019, 12:44
11.12 Budda Baker, DB ARI
I'm a big Baker fan. He makes plays whether as the slot corner or SS. Going back to SS this year, I expect big things. The LBs in ARI are nothing to write home about. No LB or other DL stood out, and I felt like I needed to grab another IDP.
40SwinganaMiss
      ID: 356281721
      Sat, Aug 31, 2019, 12:49
12.03 Michael Gallup, WR DAL
Gallup has been getting favorable publicity, and I can grab him as a 4th WR and bye week fill-in, w/ plenty of upside. Even with only 3 starting IDP at this point, I feel more comfortable taking an Offensive player on this turn to go with Baker last round.
41SwinganaMiss
      ID: 356281721
      Sat, Aug 31, 2019, 12:57
13.12 Alexander Mattison, RB MIN
Mattison gives me some security for Cook, who has been injury-prone in the past. I considered other RB options like Ballage and McCoy, but neither of them is sure to have a role going forward either. I decided to go ahead and get Mattison, maybe a bit early for this HC. But I figured I could get the same/similar IDPs in a few picks.
42SwinganaMiss
      ID: 356281721
      Sat, Aug 31, 2019, 13:02
14.03 Trey Flowers, DL DET
I decided to grab another DL here since I didn't fancy any particular LB. But I do like the upside for Flowers in a new location. I did pause to consider QB here, and based upon all the backup QBs that went off the board before my next pick that would've been a better idea.
43youngroman
      ID: 15510187
      Sat, Aug 31, 2019, 16:46
9.04 Drew Brees, QB, NO
I decided a few rounds ago that it is worth waiting for a QB because the current tier contains too many players. I still see Roethlisberger and Brady as similar options to Brees that are still available. I took Brees because of the better outlook. Brady looks like he entered his decline and he is without Gronk. Big Ben lost Antonio Brown. Brees still has Thomas, Kamara and Graham at his disposal. he looked sharp in his short pre-season footage. He plays behind a good offense line, so I have no doubts about his age.

10.11 Justin Houston, DL, IND
wanted that my first DL is a top-10 guy which should produce steadily. Looking at various projections Houston is as high as 2nd and as low as 20. as 10th DL off the board I am in the middle of that. He is capable of creating double digit sacks (he had 9.5 the last 2 years) with the usual 30-40 solo tackles.

11.04 Frank Clark, DL, KC
I am trying something different this year. The previous seasons I always waited until the last few rounds to get my DL's. the DL's I got were not bad, but they were unreliable. They had a good week followed by a bad week. even when I tried to play matchups I ended up with the same pattern. I could not pick an above average DL in a majority of the weeks.

because of that I try something different and burn 2 picks on Top-10 DL's and hope I can plug them in and forget the position. After Houston in the last round I now take Clark. he changed teams in the off-season but I guess this should not affect his fantasy value too much. He should still be dependable in almost all matchups.

12.11 Jaylen Samuels, RB, PIT
some of you already picked RB #3 and #4 and I still only have 2 of them, which are not from the top tiers. So after I almost filled all relevant starting slots (only PK, 2DB, 1IDP are missing), I thought that it is time for some backups, ideally RB's. on top of my list were Samuels, Singletary and even Peterson and McCoy. since most of you focused on filling their offense or defense starters this round, nobody from my queue was taken.

In case anything happens to Conner, Samuels should get the 1st chance to shine. He looked good in preseason.

13.04 Devin Singletary, RB, BUF
I am continuing what I started 8 picks ago: picking backup RB's that can be good if given the opportunity. The role of Singletary is not yet clear because he competes with 2 old guys: McCoy and Gore. As soon as they show some signs of their age, it will be Singletary getting the carries. I wouldn't be surprised to see that happen in the 2nd half of the season.

update from 2019-08-31: McCoy was waived so the backfield is down to Singletary and Gore with Singletary expected to get the majority of the carries. Based on that, this pick is in contention for "steal of the draft".

14.11 Matt Stafford, QB, DET
backup QB's are getting thin. 20 QB's are taken. Only 12 starters left and most of those starters have more than 1 issue. All teams until my next pick don't have a 2nd QB yet, so I better take one now than at 15.04.

Of the remaining QB's Stafford stood out. I don't believe that Garoppolo or Carr will be any good this season and all other QB's are ranked lower than Stafford. I can only hope that Stafford is not injured when I need him. The last few years he got sacked much more than Andrew Luck who called it quits a few days ago.

15.04 Golden Tate, WR, NYG
he is suspended for the first few games of the season, which might be the primary reason why he is still available. It was only a matter of time until he gets picked up. I better take his talent now. Eli at QB might raise some questions, but the Giants finally have some young talent at that position that should be able to move Eli to the bench sooner than later. And this new QB-WR combination might be Golden come the fantasy playoffs.
44taxman
      SuperDude
      ID: 029463114
      Sat, Aug 31, 2019, 18:44
8.02 Wilson, Russel SEA QB
Needed a 2nd QB. Russel is a quality QB and a great pick ... except Russel has same off week as Aaron Rodgers, my earlier QB pick. Oops. Massive brain fart. I didn't want Newton's health problems, but Jackson and Goff were fine available options. I just pulled the trigger w/o looking at bye weeks. There is a trade brewing here.


9.13 Penny, Rashaad RB SEA
Starting to build out RB stable and Penny is a quality established #2 running back who projects to @ 800 combined yardage with5-6 TD. A solid # 3 RB. If Penny were gone I would be looking at WR at this pick.


10.02 Sanders, Emmanual WR DEN
Has recovered quickly from 2018 Achilles injury. Flacco should quickly find Sanders to be great route runner, willing to brave middle of field receptions with after catch running skills. A high floor with possible upside makes Sanders a great #3 wideout, may produce like a number 2 with 900 yards and 5 TDs. Considered Fitzgerald and Pettis for this pick but thought neither had as a high a floor and upside.

11.13 Clowney, Jadeveon DL ???
Seattle appears to be Clowney's home for 2019 if he passes physical. Playing for a new contract with again ??? Clowney should be a terror for Seattle and experience his 1st double digit sack total. A shot in the dark pick, let's see what happens.
45taxman
      SuperDude
      ID: 029463114
      Sat, Aug 31, 2019, 21:00
12.02 Ogletree, Alex NYG LB
Looking for a bounce back year. Only 58 solo stops last year, but with 5 interceptions. Expect stops to hit low 70's, but only 2 picks at best. Still makes him fantasy worthy. I considered Baker and Vigil, but each have a better offense to keep them off the field. Not so Ogletree. He will be on field early, late and a lot in between.


13.13 Peterson, Adrian WAS RB
Man gets norespect. Reportedly due for a time share arrangement with Guice, he has been wrongly dissed as irrelevant for 3 seasons. Was hard to write his name and not put MIN behind it. Expecting 800 combined yardage behind a weak offensive line with a less than optimal QB situation. No others considered him, when I saw he was available I jumped.


14.02 Jackson, Kareem DEN S
Fortunate to find a DB with upside value this late in draft. Should approach 65 stops, 30 assists and get a dozen pass defended. Will benefit from unruly pass rush from Denver's front 3 and 2 exceptional OLB in Chubb/Miller. I really wanted Poyer, but Jackson isn't a bad door prize.



46Toral
      ID: 9541311
      Sun, Sep 01, 2019, 09:08

12.05 Austin Hooper, TE, Atl
I had a sense of trepidation about this pick, although I don't know why. I need a TE, and Hooper is at the top of the tier of those remaining. I generally prefer to grab the bottom of the tier rather than the top, and there will probably be similar TEs available in a round or two, but I can't think of anything else to do
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
POSTSCRIPT: This could end up being the dumbest pick in the entire draft, for reasons I will reveal in the draft recap, if I haven't died of embarrasment first.
47Toral
      ID: 9541311
      Sun, Sep 01, 2019, 09:16

13.10 DeSean Jackson, WR, Phi

Time to look for an WR4. As mentioned in a previous comment, Jackson is a proven home run threat who could go off any time. Word is that he might even be used as a returner "in extraordinary situations". The team says it's not concerned about his broken left ring finger and that he'll be ready for week one. I no longer trust anything that any NFL team says, but let's hope they're right.
48Toral
      ID: 9541311
      Sun, Sep 01, 2019, 09:21

14.05 Jerome Baker, LB, Mia

Anticipating 2nd year improvement and that he will continue to be a 3-down player. The main observation of an IDP expert from a preseason game: "There was one crystal clear observation from the game against Jacksonville; Baker is going to be a good one."
49youngroman
      ID: 15510187
      Sun, Sep 01, 2019, 18:48
16.11 Tyrell Williams, WR, OAK
playing alongside Antonio Brown and his new helmet should open looks for Tyrell Williams. The WR group of the Raiders does not look very deep, which should get him lots of snaps and hopefully targets. And in case Brown is still in love with his old helmet he might even be the #1 WR. you can't ask for more at this point of the draft.

17.04 Mike Gesicki, TE, MIA
rosters are cut down to 53 players right now. Needed some time to look through all the cuts that happened till now to identify if an undrafted player can take advantage of that.
Initially thought about taking a RB/WR here but the pool at RB is empty and the WR's have too many question marks.
The Dolphins cut 2 of their TE's since yesterday. They still have 4 before final cuts, but only 2 of them are primarily used for catching balls. One of them is Mike Gesicki. The interesting thing about him is that he lines up at various places and plays a lot like a WR. If this continues in the regular season he will see a lot of snaps in that offense and might bring WR value at the TE position.

18.11 Johnathan Abram, DB, OAK
coming up to this pick I decided that most likely I want my first DB here. I waited on DB's longer than in the past because I thought that all DB's are pretty equal and the top perfomers each week are usually the ones that created turnovers and TDs. If this does not happen, a lot of them get basically the same number of tackles and passes to defend. This year this was not worth it to consider a DB earlier than the last few rounds.

with 15 picks to go my list was: Abram, Jones, Smith. Luckily Reshad Jones and Harrison Smith were picked, but Abram was not. Abram is a rookie that seems to have the starting position locked up. He is projected to be very active and hence might get a lot of opportunities to score fantasy points. since we are this late in the draft I can take some gambles with potential and Abram is one of them.
50Da Bomb
      Donor
      ID: 487112814
      Mon, Sep 02, 2019, 02:45
16.12 Mecole Hardman, WR, KC
As my WR5, taking a shot that the speedy rookie can carve out value as the hopeful third WR on the league's best offense plus get work in the return game. And there have been light rumblings that Tyreek Hill is on the trade block. I would have taken Tyrell Williams had he not been selected right before.

17.03 Jordan Scarlett, RB, CAR
Handcuffing McCaffrey.

18.12 Nick Bosa, DE, SF
Perhaps this year's second overall pick can play like his brother Joey. Nick's been battling an ankle injury this preseason but is expected back at practice.

19.03 Anthony Walker, LB, IND
My flex IDP. I chose him over over another MLB Eric Kendricks because Walker is younger and maybe has another level in him.

20.12 Ka'imi Fairbairn, K, HOU
The 6th kicker off the board. At this point in the draft there was no one I needed to have. The difference between last season's top scoring kicker in Fairbairn and the 14th was almost 3 points per game.

21.03 Justin Evans, DB, TB
My DB2. Most fantasy relevant DBs are up in the air from one year to the next. Evans is a third year SS and maybe the addition of Todd Bowles can boost his game. But I'll be keeping an eye out on the waiver wire during the early part of the season for my last couple starting IDP positions. I was also looking at Adrian Phillips who had been selected as he will be filling in for the injured Derwin James.
51SwinganaMiss
      ID: 356281721
      Mon, Sep 02, 2019, 15:26
15.12 Danny Trevathan, LB CHI
Needed to get a second LB. I'm already behind most people in this regard. Was really thinking I would get a backup QB at this turn, but the ones I was hoping (Allen, Darnold, and even Brisset) were gone. I didn't think any of Carr, Dalton, Foles, etc. stood out enough to go ahead and grab a backup .
52SwinganaMiss
      ID: 356281721
      Mon, Sep 02, 2019, 15:30
16.03 Malcolm Brown, RB LAR
Wanted to grab a high-upside RB. Otherwise I was considering a 3rd LB or 5th WR (Tyrell Williams). This may go nowhere. I will see how Gurley starts the season.
53SwinganaMiss
      ID: 356281721
      Mon, Sep 02, 2019, 15:34
17.12 Nick Foles, QB JAC
If I had taken a QB in 15/16 turn, it would have been Foles. The O will be run-first, but Nick has played decent in limited opportunities. He has enough weapons to be OK. I'm not thrilled, and will not be in good shape if Cam goes down. Hopefully BDN can hold down the fort if it does happen.
54SwinganaMiss
      ID: 356281721
      Mon, Sep 02, 2019, 15:38
18.03 Fred Warner, LB SF
Warner looked like a stud for half a season last year. He tailed off quite a bit last year, and has upgraded competition for tackles this year. Hopefully he can hold onto LB3 value.
55SwinganaMiss
      ID: 356281721
      Mon, Sep 02, 2019, 15:43
19.12 Devante Parker, WR MIA
This one made me throw up a little. I've had plenty of Parker over the years, much to my dismay. The good news, Stills is gone and it's Fitzmagic season (at least for now). The bad news, it's Parker. For now, he is my 5th WR. So, I can stomach holding on to him to see if anything has changed.
56Toral
      ID: 9541311
      Mon, Sep 02, 2019, 15:57

17.10 Justin Reid, DB, Hou

Folks must be using radically different IDP lists this year, becuz Reid stood clearly at the top of mine here.

A manager commented that he was considering Reid back at 16.06, so I'm not an outlier here apparently.
57Toral
      ID: 9541311
      Mon, Sep 02, 2019, 16:05

18.05 C. J. Anderson, RB, Det

Looking for a #2 RB who could produce if his team's starter went down. Anderson showed off his power-running style in the playoffs last year.

ALSO CONSIDERED: Frank Gore (18.09)
58Toral
      ID: 9541311
      Mon, Sep 02, 2019, 16:14

19.10 Will Lutz, PK, N.O.

Ruminating as this pick came up I decided that I might do something different and snag Harrison Butker. Butker was taken at 19.05 but there was one PK I preferred to the rest. Lutz I preferred becuz 2 of his 3 playoff weeks will be at home, something to consider what with the Saints' home/road splits. the next best kicker plays 3 cold-weather games.

May not have been a good choice right here becez Jurrell Casey had been at the top my queue and Philly Busters snapped him up as he is prone to do. I could have taken Lutz at 20.05.
59Slackjawed Yokel
      ID: 547332821
      Mon, Sep 02, 2019, 17:49
15.06 Ronald Jones, RB, TB
Can't go wrong in a deep league like this with having a deep RB bench. I took a look at the holes I still have in my starting lineup (LB & DB), and still saw a lot of talent out there. So, I took a look instead at potential candidates from the RB/WR pool. Writeup from rotowire suggested that Jones's skillsets might be a better fit with the new coaching staff than the previous one, so thought it was worth a stab at seeing if he's able to take advantage of this new opportunity.

16.09 Patrick Onwuosor, LB, Bal
I only have one LB at this spot, so time to make sure I start working on rounding out my starting lineup. I wavered between Fred Warner and Onwuosor. I ended up going with Onwuosor because of concerns with Warner having to share the ILB positions with perennial IDP stud, Kwon Alexander and the impact this could have on his production.

17.06 Tyrann Mathieu - S, KC
New scenery for the Honey Badger. Thinking the tendency of the Chiefs to put up some big numbers will drive their opponents to the air and set up Mathieu for a high number of tackles and picks or pass defended.

18.09 Frank Gore, RB, Buf
News had come out earlier about McCoy being released. This leaves Gore with at minimum the share of a committee. Checking their last boxscore, he had 8 carries for 57 yards. Worth a flier here in case he does end up being the primary back at some point in the season. He has shown the past couple of years he still has the ability to get a 100-yard game here and there.

19.06 Paul Richardson, WR, Was
Scoping out potential candidates for my WR bench, and saw that Richardson is slated to be the #1 receiver in Washington. At this stage of the draft, that was pretty much all I needed to see. He's been banged up a bit in preseason, but it didn't look like that should really linger into the regular season.. Even if it does, he'll likely be on my bench for the first few weeks anyway.

20.09 Preston Brown, LB, Cin
Needed to round out my starting lineup. Brown is typically a solid source of tackles, and with Burfict out of town, should be the primary tackler out of the defensive backfield.

21.06 Todd Davis, LB - LAC Looking for added depth to my LB ranksÖ I expect him to build on his ~115 tackles from last year. Thinking with Fangio as his head coach, he may get some opportunities for some blitzing as well.

22.09 Clayton Geathers, S, Ind
Debated getting a kicker here, but decided to wait until the next time through. Was considering Vinatieri, but doesn't seem like he got any love in the AAA leagues, so should be able to wait a round. Then I started to look at where I didn't have any depth - only two DB's... so went for Geathers who should be a solid backup. He puts up good numbers when healthy, but has a tendency to get banged up.

23.06 Adam Vinatieri, PK, Ind
Not sure when the last time I had Vinatieri in a league... probably has been 10+ years. He really doesn't show any signs of slowing despite being the same age as me (well, he's a year younger). Colts don't play him on kickoffs, so he should continue to go out there and be Mr Automatic, and get his handful of 50+ yarders on top of that. With the top kickers gone, I see Vinatieri as a safe/reliable alternative.
61Da Bomb
      Donor
      ID: 487112814
      Mon, Sep 02, 2019, 20:10
22.12 Will Dissly, TE, SEA
With George Kittle on bye in week 4 I will need someone to stand in early. Dissly had a couple big games early last season before going down for the season to injury. Seattle's receiving options are fairly wide open after Lockett so there will be an opportunity for Will.

23.03 Marquise Goodwin, WR, SF
Goodwin is one of the few #2 WR options left. He was a popular breakout pick last season but was derailed with injuries both to himself and to Garoppolo.

24.12 Reggie Bonnafon, RB, CAR
Handcuffing McCaffrey as it turns out Bonnafon stands as second on the depth chart over Jordan Scarlett.
62taxman
      SuperDude
      ID: 029463114
      Tue, Sep 03, 2019, 00:35
15.13 Samuel, Deebo SFO WR
Samuel is a talented open field runner that can play both inside and outside. In a crowded WR stable Samuel presents home run threat from anywhere on field. A rookie with a low floor but a huge upside. Wanted Moncrief here but too late again.


16.02 Clinton-Dix, Ha Ha CHI S
Former GBP S will enjoy the talent surrounding him in CHI. Projects to 70+ solo stops which could be more if not for CHI front 7. In his career he has been a sturdy hard nose tackle machine and will have another good fantasy season. I chose Ha Ha over HOU safety Reid.


17.13 Tucker, Justin BAL PK
Mr. automatic (241 XPM out of 242 XPA), career Field goal % made PK and budding opera star (for real). Tucker's father (Paul) is my wife's (3 open heart surgeries and counting) cardiologist for past 20 years. Tucker's last college FG as time expired, sent Texas to victory over uber rival Tx A&M in the last game before Tx A&M joined SEC, bringing that 90+ game rivalry to a close. And mostly because I wanted a high percentage PK who can hit from 50.


18.02 Fant, Noah DEN TE
Going to rookie pool again. Drafted as a TE 2, The speedy Fant could surprise. Flacco has always enjoyed talented receivers and Fant is described as a freakish athelete giving him a high ceiling, but with a low floor. I had wanted Hockenson and took Fant over my homey, Jason Witten.


19.13 Griffen, Everson MIN DE
Griffen should bounce back from an off year caused by dealing with mental illness issues. Refreshed and refocused, Griffen projects to hit 30 solo tackles with 9 or so sacks. DL 2 level production.


20.02 Anzalone, Alex NOS LB
Had targeted Zack Brown, but getting Anzalone could work out. A high upside LB with good mobility was on field for majority of passing downs in 2018. Charts show him as starting MLB, but preseason plan was to slot Anzalone at WLB. Either way, he should see a big jump in numbers to mid 60's solo stops, 30 assists and 8 passes defensed. Late addition of Alonso should keep Anzalone in the middle and hopefully, busy.
63taxman
      SuperDude
      ID: 029463114
      Tue, Sep 03, 2019, 01:33
21.13 Oluokun, Foyesade ATL LB
I have no clue how Oluokun wound up in my queue. Too many personal distractions have occurred in this draft and mistakes compounded by poor queue maintenance. Joe Flacco was my target, but didn't get him for two more picks. Drat!

22.02 Davis, Jared DET LB
See 21.13 above. At least Davis is a serviceable LB, but I did not need a LB at this point in draft. My thoughts were to fix holes in my QB, RB and WR holdings, but obviously screwed up my queue listing. Double drat!!


23.13 Flacco, Joe DEN QB
Another fix-it pick. Flaco has excellent targets to work with in Denver, but is he just to old to get it done? I just need a week 11 game out of him, having earlier mindlessly drafted two mid tier QB's (IMHO Mahomes is lone top tier QB) both with same bye week. Oddly, I find myself protected from a catastrophic QB injury, at least until until someone pry's either Wison or Rodgers away.

24.02 Amos, Adrian GBP S
This was another queue pick that would have worked if made earlier. I had targeted 3 rookie WR's, Boykin, N'Keal Harry and Brown, but all grabbed before the turn. Amos was a late addition to my queue as a DB 3 with 2 upside. A fitting end to a poor draft effort.
64Toral
      ID: 9541311
      Tue, Sep 03, 2019, 07:49
20.05 Kenny Clark, DL, GB

A top-10 DL under our format last year until he was injured, Clark offers consistency withour much upside.

21.10 Ted Ginn, WR, NO

Apparently the old man is holding off his younger competition for the #2 WR slot in New Orleans, which should offer plug-in value.

22.05 Mike Davis, RB Chi

As a power runner who can also catch a ball, I'd like to see where he fits in the Bears' RBBC.

23.10 A. J. Brown, WR, Ten

One might think that I needed a second TE, but with 28 already drafted, I figure one will be disgorged by a team by the time I need one. Brown has apparently established a good rapport with the guy who might well be the Titans' surprise holder of the QB position. Either he or Ginn probably destined to be cut eventually.

24.05, Kyle Fuller, DB, Chi

A "big-play" DB, one supposed expert has Fuller listed as the #6 DB under our scoring. Between weeks 5 and 14 he was the #2 last year. Worth taking a look-see. Gives me a slate of IDPs with no duplicate bye weeks.

65youngroman
      ID: 15510187
      Tue, Sep 03, 2019, 14:08
19.04 Kenny Stills, WR, HOU
at the time of my pick Stills was just traded to Houston. It is not known yet which role he will have there, but being the #3 WR behind Hopkins and Fuller seems reasonable. If anything happens to Hopkins he might even act as some kind of insurance for my team.

the last few years Stills got above average TD's compared to other WR's with the same yardage. if he stays with the 800 yards and 5 TD's he may have a longer stay on my team

20.11 Ryquell Armstead, RB, JAX
the depth chart at RB for the Jaguars is pretty empty right now. It looks like they only have 2 RB's right now: Fournette and Armstead. Alfred Blue was put on IR a few hours ago and all others incl Thomas Rawls were cut yesterday.

With this pick I try to take advantage of this yet unknown situation, in the hope that Armstead will have a role.

21.04 Kyle Van Noy, LB, NE
I still needed a flex IDP. LB's tend to score the most, or at least are most predictable. Made a list of LB's that should play on all 3 downs. The list was still pretty long (10+). Tried to rank these players and put them in a queue. At the end Van Noy was picked. He should perform pretty similar to last year where he scored 120 fantasy points and was the 28th best LB. with 40+ LB's already gone I am ok with getting him.

22.11 Kenny Moore, DB, IND
I still needed a DB. Moore was the best CB left. He gets the tackles, he should get some sacks and interceptions. If he does not perform to my satisfaction he may be dropped soon.

23.04 Wayne Gallman, RB, NYG
not many #2 RB's are left. If there ever happens something to the #1 pick, Gallman will get the first chance to pick up the majority of the carries. This pick is only about potential of getting carries, not necessarily about best talent available.

24.11 Matt Prater, PK, DET
we need a kicker, Prater is a reliable one. Since his bye is in week 5 he will most likely replaced soon by a different kicker with a later bye week that does well early in the season.
66SwinganaMiss
      ID: 356281721
      Tue, Sep 03, 2019, 16:55
20.03 Kiko Alonso, LB NO
TBD whether this will be a good landing spot for Kiko. If Saints other LBs are healthy and Kiko ends up as SLB or just depth, then it's possibly a wasted pick. If not, it could be good value. Worth a bit of a risk at this price point as my 4th LB. I can watch for a week and see what happens. Otherwise I considered Herndon or even a super-early kicker.

21.12 Chris Herndon, TE NYJ
Since I was eying Herndon last pick, I was happy to see him here 25 picks later. He ought to just be a bye week fill-in, since I have Engram, but seems like a good value. I can wait on a second DB, since the guys on the end already have 2.

22.03 Justin Simmons, DB DEN
Simmons was one of my favorite DB pickups last year. He played maybe 100% of the snaps for DEN, if I remember right. For the 28th Safety, he should be well worth the price. Again, I thought about a kicker, but figured I better finally address my DB2 slot.

23.12 Rashard Higgins, WR CLE
Decided that my last 2 picks should be another upside WR and a Kicker. Rashard Higgins was a name who was getting a lot of hype a few weeks back, and has a good rapport with Baker. He can do some damage even as the 4th option. I was surprised to see 8 receivers go off the board in the 23rd, but I guess everybody is looking for one more diamond in the rough.

24.03 Jake Elliot, K PHI
For an Eagles fan I am sadly low on Eagles across my fantasy rosters. So, why not this one? They should score well as a team, so he has to get some points!
67holt
      ID: 491153264
      Tue, Sep 03, 2019, 16:59
19.14 Zach Brown, LB, PHI

Moving from the Skins to the Eagles may help revive his career. He should be a three-down LB. I don't get overly attached to my draftees. The leash won't be a long one.


20.01 Dallas Goedert, TE, PHI

Pure speculation. I have Kelce so if things go as planned I won't have much use for Goedert. The Eagles plan is to use two TE's quite a bit, so he should get a chance to produce, but the main value is in the case that Ertz goes down which would make Goedert a top 5'ish TE.
68holt
      ID: 491153264
      Tue, Sep 03, 2019, 17:21
21.14 Nelson Agholor, WR, PHI

Agholor is way way more effective from the slot, which is where he will get to play this season. He average about 750 yds 6 td the past two seasons and I wouldn't be surprised if that's where he ends up at this year. I wanted to take Boykin but I have so many rookies already. Kind of needed some WR depth with a track record on my squad, and also thought I'd have a shot at Boykin later.



22.01 Marcus Davenport, DE, NOS

Drafting my linemen really late. Most of the guys available are interchangeable at this point but Davenport has the tools to rise above. He was a 2018 1st rd draft pick for the Saints (they actually traded their 2019 #1 in order to move up to get him) but was limited with turf toe last season. True breakout potential here.
69holt
      ID: 491153264
      Tue, Sep 03, 2019, 17:31
23.14 Fletcher Cox, DT, PHI

Not much to say here. Needed another lineman and I figured Cox to be best available at this time. No telling how many times I've added and dropped him over the years. He's solid, not spectacular.



24.01 Jay Ajayi, RB, FA

Already had a kicker so figured I spend my last pick with a wild swing for the fence. I'm sure my fantasy team isn't the only team that has discussed signing Ajayi in the past week.

70Slackjawed Yokel
      ID: 547332821
      Tue, Sep 03, 2019, 22:54
24.06 Smith, Tre'Quan NOS WR
Not long after grabbing a kicker in the last round, I belatedly checked to see if the backup for my first round pick, Nick Chubb happened to still be available. Turns out he was - so I made a one-man queue of Dontrell Hilliard. Then a few hours later when I got a text that I was on the clock, I knew someone had taken him. Guru had several picks ago. I was busy grilling out at that point, so simply used the MFL draft listing and saw that Tre'Quan Smith was one of the top available WR. Knew whomever I picked would likely be dropped soon enough, so taking him in an off chance that he ends up being a top target for Brees.
71twilson
      ID: 68660
      Fri, Sep 06, 2019, 01:08
0.13 Draft Slot #5
I had second-to-last pick of the draft slots, and only 5 and 6 were left. That is about what I expected going in, as people are always interested in the late picks and there is a Big 4 at the top. I agree with that consensus.

I took #5 so that I would have my choice of players after the Big 4 were off the board, plus the small chance that one of the Big 4 would drop to me. This was not a difficult selection.

1.05 Ezekiel Elliott, RB, DAL
Ezekiel Elliottís holdout changed the context of this selection when youngroman went elsewhere at #4. I did my due diligence on Elliott and came away less convinced than some of the writers whose opinion I most respect. While this is the type of holdout that historically almost always get resolved, the Bell holdout last year has the feeling of an industry changer.

Putting aside the holdout, Elliott is my clear top player. I am not sold on the Arizona offensive line being able to create the time and space for Johnson to return to his former glory. Kingsbury is undoubtedly an upgrade on their horrible prior coach who religiously ran right up the middle on every first down for 2 yards, and I continue to believe in Johnsonís talent.

There are question marks about each of the other 1st round RBs as well. James Conner is talented and playing behind a great line, but heís not quite at the level of Bell and the departure of Antonio Brown will allow defenses to concentrate on fewer threats. Gurley has been absolutely elite the past two years, but there is talk of a workshare to keep him as healthy as possible. Iím actually fairly bullish on Gurley maintaining the volume necessary to deliver top 5 value, but thereís no denying that his risk of injury is higher than the others. Nick Chubb was excellent in the second half last year, and the Browns have a real shot to win double digit games. I feel the risk of Kareem Hunt cutting into his carries after suspension is a bit overblown, but that doesnít mean it canít happen.

Finally, I could take the best of the WRs Ė Tyreek Hill. Adding in his punt returns, I have him ranked above Hopkins and rivaling the Big 4 for value. While the numbers scream regression for Mahomes, Iím not convinced that it will happen, which would very likely mean another huge season for Hill.

Ultimately, I went against my gut and took the consensus pick of Elliott. Looking back on how I felt about it at the time, I think this was the wrong pick. Iíve become more certain of Connerís success this year, and Hill would have been an excellent pick as well without having to expose myself to the holdout risk. I drafted Bell last year, so this couldíve been two straight years where my top 5 draft choice failed to play a game for me. As I am writing this, Elliott has signed a new contract, so Iím in the clear. But I still want to record my rationale from the time for posterity and future reference.

2.10 Tyler Lockett, WR, SEA
I think people have mostly gotten it right so far in this draft. Weíre now firmly in the second tier of WR/TE and the third or fourth at RB. Guru even took the intriguing option of Mahomes off the table. I think the pass catchers are a better value here than the RBs, so I will concentrate my attentions there. Kittle and Ertz are the TE options, both of which feel like somewhat reasonable value, but I like enough other options throughout the draft that I think Iíll find a better value later on.

Four WRs are on my list Ė two I owned last year (Thielen, Lockett) and two I did not (Cooper, Allen). I was a happy owner of both Thielen and Lockett and am perfectly willing to go back to that well. Thielen was a clockwork WR1 throughout the first half but finished the year with a tough stretch. I havenít been able to find any explanation for the swoon, so it was probably just a bit of regression to the mean after an unsustainable level of success. I think heís capable of returning to that level, or the new run-focused OC in Minnesota could lower his ceiling. Lockett had drastically unsustainable TD and yd/target rates last year, but heís in line for increased volume with the retirement of Doug Baldwin. It seems that Lockett will likely continue his involvement in the return game, which is a requirement for him to be worth a pick quite this high. As negative as his regression trends are for receiving stats, I think he will have better punt return success in 2019 to partially offset the downsides.

Amari Cooper had a great run with the Cowboys after being traded. While lumpy from a game-to-game perspective, Iím much more concerned with overall performance. Points are points, regardless of the week in which they happen. Heís dealing with a bit of a foot injury now. I never enjoy adding active injury risk in the early rounds if the upside isnít clearly worth it. Keenan Allen has a 1400 yard season on his resume, though the touchdown totals have never been elite. Very talented player, solid team/offense/quarterback. Dealing with a minor injury that doesnít really rise to the level of concerning, though it is something to note.

I have a greater personal belief in Thielen and Lockett, so it becomes a question of which guy I would rather own. Maybe I should break the tie against return yard value, given the additional risk it carries, but Lockettís ceiling is WR#2 if he really does deliver on both offense and special teams. Thatís what tipped me toward the Seahawk.

3.10 Josh Jacobs, RB, OAK
I was hoping Freeman, Cooper, or Carson would make it back to me. I thought I had a pretty good shot with Carson, but it wasnít meant to be. RB makes a good amount of sense, though we only really need one good one given the bye week flex, so I donít have to force it. I am interested in Mark Ingram, Josh Jacobs, and David Montgomery. If I donít take an RB now, Iíll probably go extremely WR-heavy with my roster. Ingram is a good fit for the Baltimore offense, and more importantly, the Baltimore offense is a great fit for Ingramís fantasy prospects. The offensive line is proven, and Lamar Jacksonís dual threat will help open up the running game even further. The big point totals of JAG Gus Edwards last year is proof of that. Thereís been talk that Ingram will be usurped by Edwards or the rookie Justice Hill, but his preseason usage and coach comments have been consistently positive. Heís not a bellcow, but he should be productive all the same.

Josh Jacobs is this yearís 1st round rookie RB. Most analysts are skeptical of the Raiders, and I can understand why. I donít think David Carr is anything more than a competent starting quarterback, which puts a clear cap on the teamís ceiling. With that said, Jon Gruden has a history (though aged at this point) of bellcow RB usage. Talk throughout camp has suggested that this is a real possibility, despite the presence of 68-catch Jalen Richard on the depth chart. If Jacobs is a true bellcow, then he would be a clear value at 3.10 even if the Raiders are terrible.

David Montgomery is the other rookie RB being hyped by both analysts and his coaching staff. The Bears have generated RB successes previously, and the team is quite likely to better than Oakland. He wonít be a bellcow with Tarik Cohen in town.

I considered Edelman, Godwin, Hilton, and the LAR receivers as well, all of whom should be good players again, but RB seemed like the correct decision. It came down to Ingram and Jacobs. I chose the rookie because thereís basically no chance that he loses his job this year, which I canít say about Ingram. Any RB I take in the top 4 rounds needs to still be a viable starting option come week 13, and Jacobs is more likely than Ingram to meet that requirement.

4.10 Cooper Kupp, WR, LAR
I wasnít sure which direction to go here. Itís the start of the first short turn, though 8 picks is a hard number to plan around. I wouldnít mind getting started at defense if the player is right, and weíre also at the spot where the next tier of tight ends will leave the board. Guru did already select my clear #1 IDP in Leonard; otherwise he probably wouldíve been the pick. Loved owning him last year, and I still canít believe that he got dropped when he missed one game so that his owner could hold onto a third-string QB. Iíd also like to note that Dede Westbrook went higher than I expected but also at a respectable value. I was loosely hoping he could be my 5th round selection.

Iím very much done with RB for a while after committing to two in the first three rounds. WR is the traditional direction to go, along with TE. I do like the trio of Howard/Engram/Henry to show growth with another year under their belts. All are in good positions in their offenses and look to play on most snaps. Howard is my favorite, as I feel he has the best combo of past performance and increased snaps. Thereís risk in going with a Bruce Arians TE, but I think Howard will be an exception due to his talent and pedigree. Arians is a creative enough offensive mind to make the best use of his top threats. Engram has the highest floor of the three, as the departure of Beckham leaves the Giants with a limited cupboard. I continue to have QB concerns that knock Engramís ceiling down below his peers. Henry requires the greatest level of projection due to his missed year, but heís also a high draft selection with demonstrated red zone target volume. Heíll get his, itís just less certain than the others.

Cooper Kupp, TY Hilton, and Calvin Ridley are the best of the WR bunch. Ridley was very dependent on touchdowns for his rookie fantasy success, but heís in a similar position to the TEs regarding pedigree and performance. There will be growth in season 2, but how much? He still wonít be playing every snap. Kupp was a WR1 last year prior to his ACL tear. Heís the best red zone target of the Rams receivers, but is he really 100% recovered? Camp talk has been uniformly positive, but thereís always a tendency to overpraise in those situations. Hilton would already be off the board right now if not for the retirement of Andrew Luck. His projections certainly take a hit with a new quarterback, but how much? It should be an improvement over 2017 given his improved surrounding cast, which puts him firmly in the conversation at this point.

I am excited about Howard and the WRs, but not about IDPs, so itís between them. I see that two of the four teams that go before my next pick already have tight ends and are unlikely to double up. I think itís worth taking the chance that Howard will survive the turn, which makes this one either Kupp or Hilton. I decided to go with the recovery risk of Kupp over the offensive uncertainty of Hilton.

5.05 Aaron Donald, DL, LAR
Welp, youngroman thwarted my plan one pick before it came to fruition. That left me very uncertain of which path to take next. I could go with one of the other two TEs (probably Engram), get started at IDP, or close out my starting RB/WR corp with another receiver. The teams on the turn didnít help matters by also selecting the other WRs I was considering in round 4, which wasnít an unexpected development. This becomes a roster filling pick more than an exciting one. But which slot to fill?

I like Engram, but his ceiling is not super enticing. It does still exist, but would require either unexpectedly good QB play or a jump in talent level that is by no means guaranteed or even really suggested. IDP would mean picking one amongst a lot of similar-looking stud LBs or committing to an elite DL at cost. Iím a bit torn between Aaron Donald and Khalil Mack. WR means betting on continued development from DJ Moore or a healthy season from Sammy Watkins. Again, nothing really screaming value.

Without an obvious target at receiver, Iím going to wait on my WR3. I still have a feeling that I will really like TE value at some point in this draft. Thus, Iíll pay the premium to lock down one of my DL slots. Thatís always the defensive position where I find it hardest to find quality replacements in the free agent pool. I had such a hard time deciding between Donald and Mack that I let my girlfriend make the selection based purely on their names. Surprisingly, she preferred the two first names of Aaron Donald over the alternative two first names of Khalil Mack.

6.10 Matt Ryan, QB, ATL
I think that Sammy Watkins would have been the pick here if not for Chucktaylors two ahead of me. It wasnít a slam dunk, but I think it wouldíve been the right call. Again, I donít see much clear value on the board. The fourth tier of QBs has dropped further than I expected. I entered the draft expecting that I would be a late QB guy this year in RIFC, but Iíll always consider switching gears if the opportunity is right. I donít like the available TEs. Beyond QB, I could take a chance on AJ Green to return healthy or get started on LB. The IDP run has yet to begin in earnest, so there is much from which to select. Kuechly would be the LB pick, despite his added concussion risk. Heís just such a reliable producer when is on the field. At QB, I think I slightly prefer Matt Ryan. Heís had 2 years in 3 of true elite production. His football talent is not at that level, but heís in a great situation in Atlanta. Julio and Ridley make a great receiving tandem, and the rest of the offense is nothing to scoff at. There are some later round QBs that I like to produce at almost that level, but Ryan has done it before and they havenít.

I couldnít convince myself that one LB was that much better than the rest, and I decided not to take a chance on AJ Green. By process of elimination, I guess that means Iím going with Matt Ryan as my quarterback.

7.05 Cory Littleton, LB, LAR
One more pick from this underwhelming tier. I can take my old reliable Marvin Jones to fill out my WR corps or finally force myself to pick from the LBs. That run has to be starting soon. Deion Jones and Lavonte David are the most exciting names from a past performance perspective. Jones came back super strong from his injury last year at 11 ppg. Small sample, but I like him to be a 10 ppg guy in 2019. No other LB has a track record that can match up to Davidís over the past 7 years. Heís a stud year in and year out, especially in our format with its extra points for TFL. He is perpetually underrated, especially with Kwon Alexander now on the other side of the country. This year, however, heís still recovering from August knee surgery and is at risk for the start of the season. I had been planning to take him, but I think I have to go in another direction given the uncertainty. Deion Jones has his own ongoing health issue. The coaches are saying heíll definitely be back, but thereís always the risk of recurrence until heís been back for a week or two.

If I donít go for Jones or David, then Cory Littleton is the next name up on my list. An undrafted free agent who got his first chance to start last year, he managed to put up a healthy 10.5 ppg season. Littleton had a good mix of tackle volume and big plays, which is conducive to continued elite performance in this format. I donít like that his track record is so short, but heís in the same role in the same defense.

I think I should keep diversifying my roster here rather than add to strength, so Iím going LB. I like Jones better than Littleton, but not by enough to overcome the injury concerns. Littleton becomes my LB anchor.

8.10 Calais Campbell, DL, JAC
I liked all the receivers that went between 7.06 and 8.09. Kirk and Marvin Jones are both solid values this late. Seeing 6 QBs go in the last two rounds made me happier with my Matt Ryan pick in retrospect than I was at the time, especially when Lamar Jackson made an appearance much earlier than expected. Iím a big believer in him this year, so I think itís a value despite the ADP reach.

That leaves me to talk about my own pick, which is much less interesting for me. Still not liking the values. Not a good spot for TE. 2 stud LBs is too much of a luxury unless I feel compelled by a player, and thatís not the case here. I like a bunch of guys, but nobody is an absolute slam dunk value.

I do still like a decent number of WRs. Looking at the other RIFC leagues, I should be able to catch one at the other end of the turn. RB? Some options, but nothing screaming my name. Weíre getting close to the end of the names that have a good chance to start the season with 50%+ of their backfield. I could always lock down my starting DL pair. Calais Campbell is pretty reliable and in a good situation in Jacksonville. Justin Houston has been reclassified to DL. He was a long-time target of mine at LB at his peak who has been impacted by injuries much of the last few years. Heís healthy for the moment, and replacement level is a lot lower at DL than LB. Houstonís ceiling is DL#1, which I canít say about Campbell. ADP suggests that I have a reasonable shot to take Houston at my next set of picks, but that is far from a guarantee, and I will be throwing players at the wall to see if anything sticks if I miss out on both of these guys.

I am going to wait on WR3 and close out my DL with Campbell. Not exciting and not much of a value, but probably among the safer picks I could make.

9.05 Peyton Barber, RB, TB
A couple more RBs off the board over the turn to remind me of the diminishing player pool there. Should I take a backup RB? Peyton Barber is the starter in Tampa. There is some optimism that the line will be improved from last year, and he remains solidly ahead of Ronald Jones in the pecking order. Jordan Howard now plays in Philly, a team that loves utilizing a multi-back committee. For now, though, he should have the largest share of the pie along with the bulk of the goal line reps. Miles Sanders has had a flashy camp and built buzz, but I feel like his fumbling issues will come back to bite him sooner rather than later. The back with the most value to me is probably Tony Pollard, but I donít think anyone will be reaching for him quite yet given the quality of talent still on the board. Heís probably more of an 11th/12th rounder. Matt Breida is getting about 40% of the snaps in San Francisco after the injury to McKinnon. Thereís room for that percentage to grow if he outplays Tevin Coleman.

I also have interest in a collection of receivers. Curtis Samuel came on strong late last year despite Cam Newtonís severely diminished arm strength and has obvious room for additional growth due to his lack of lifetime experience at the position. Returning from an Achilles injury is usually difficult, but analysts keep talking about how healthy Emmanuel Sanders looks in camp. Like Kupp, if Sanders is back to full strength then he will be a solid value in the 9th round. Dante Pettis was hyped all offseason given his strong conclusion to 2018 and the return of Garoppolo, but now there are mixed messages coming from his coach and the local beat writers. I still believe in his talent and think he will have a major role on the 49ers, though there is a bit more risk than I would have thought a month ago.

I want to add to offensive depth, and ideally I would like to get one each of RB and WR over the next three picks. I feel pretty good that at least one of the three receivers will survive the long turn based on RIFC ADP, so Iím going to splurge a bit and take a runner. Of the group, I think Barber has the best role and likelihood of generating useful weeks.

10.10 Marquez Valdes-Scantling, WR, GB
I was looking great to get one of the receivers from my prior rationale until the 10th round hit. I was one pick away from Pettis. Jordan Howard made it around, so Barber was the wrong choice. And Justin Houston is still free for the taking, so make that two stinky picks in a row. Back to the drawing board!

Tony Pollard went 13.01, 14.01, and 14.07 in the other RIFC drafts. That means that this pair of picks should be the right spot to take him and ensure I get my Elliott handcuff. Outside of Pollard, I think itís finally time for my WR3. Larry Fitzgerald is the dropper by ADP. He may be old, but his intelligence and technique enable him to produce when given the right opportunity. Kingsbury may be the man to do so. Marquez Valdes-Scantling is the WR2 in Wisconsin and now has a year under his belt. If he can hold onto it, that role under Rodgers frequently generates starter-quality point totals.

I briefly considered John Johnson but felt like I couldnít afford a DB luxury pick. I feel like Iíve missed out on my opportunity to build quality WR depth through the draft, so Iím very tempted to take receiver now and push the Pollard handcuff for one more round. I feel that it should be a fairly safe bet, but all it takes is own owner to feel differently. My doubts about the Arizona OL pushed me toward MVS as my pick.

11.05 Jordan Howard, RB, PHI
Oh well, there goes Pollard to Tree. Serves me right for relying too heavily on RIFC ADP in the middle rounds of the draft. While I had a clear preference for MVS over Fitzgerald and the rest of the pack, I couldíve made something work in the event both were gone by 11.05. Instead, Fitzgerald remains available, and I have a potential gaping hole at RB.

I fell back on an old research standby for this pick: RIFC ADP droppers. By that measure, Fitzgerald and Jordan Howard are the values. The Miles Sanders hype is probably the cause of Howardís fall, and Fitzgerald is an old vet on a team that hasnít been performing in the preseason. Neither of these seems like a deal breaker to me, so Iím very open to halting the drop for one of them.

If I want to go in the direction of high upside, Darwin Thompson holds substantial interest. It will be painful if I donít own any part of the outstanding Chiefs offense. Damien Williams does not have the track record or pedigree that would prevent demotion, and analysts I trust believe that Thompson has the skill set to make this happen. Heís not a player I can trust to deliver bye-filler weeks, but one canít win a league without upside.

With MVS in tow, I feel somewhat okay about my receivers at this point, so Iíll take a RB anyway to fill the Pollard-sized void. Howard becomes my replacement. Phillyís offense should be strong, and as long as Howard can get a 10+ carries and a solid volume of TDs inside the 5, I will be happy.
72twilson
      ID: 68660
      Mon, Sep 09, 2019, 03:12
12.10 Greg Olsen, TE, CAR
Another pick where I donít have any obvious priorities or targets. Chief among my considered options are LB2, WR4, and TE1. The DBs that will be likely be taken over the next couple rounds donít create enough differentiation from the sleeper names that Iíve come up with to make enough of a difference to justify a mid-round selection. Iím pretty much done at RB until the late round upside flier portion of the draft.

I still see a number of LBs Iím interested in owning. Matt Milano, Vontaze Burfict, Jerome Baker, Zach Brown, Fred Warner, etc. I could probably find reasons to prefer one or two over the others with some in-depth research, but Iím not in a position to do so. The WR isnít yet devoid of talent. DK Metcalf should be a starter in Seattle as a rookie, and my 2nd rounder Lockett has never been a top volume guy. I donít love that heís been dealing with a soft tissue injury. John Brown is coming off a renaissance year that I always believed he was capable of having, but heís now a Bill, which puts a cap on his upside. DeSean Jackson is back in Philly and remains a super fast and talented guy. His occasional punt returns help in this format.

Finally, I could grab a TE from the remaining pool. When I passed on the top 6, my next plan was to take Delanie Walker at around this point, but he went two rounds ago to Chucktaylors. The pool of players I like has continued to shrink to where Greg Olsen is my clear top name. His general ADP is solidly lower than this, but the benefits of delay are now limited enough that I think others wonít hesitate to pull the trigger if they feel similarly. Tree and I are the only owners still without a TE, but Iím concerned that teams who waited until recently will double up in the coming rounds.

Olsen and Milano are probably the two players I feel most strongly about owning now. Given the deeper pool of remaining LBs, I will go with Olsen here.

13.05 Kirk Cousins, QB, MIN
John Brown is the only player I was considering who was taken on the turn, so my comments from the previous rationale mostly stand. In addition to that, I looked at backup quarterbacks. Theyíve been leaving the board, and there arenít a lot of remaining names that are worth owning. Iím not tied to carrying a backup QB, but Matt Ryan doesnít inspire the same level of confidence as you might expect from a guy I drafted as QB#4.

Kirk Cousins has been a QB1 pretty much ever since heís been starting, which feels like a bargain at QB#17. He did finish out last year on a downward swing; more concerning, though, is the new coaching staffís repeated emphasis on the run game. Cousins may not get the same volume as in prior years. Matt Stafford has been similarly productive during his time in Detroit Ė 6 QB1 years out of 8. The Jones/Golladay pairing is far from the worst of his career, but heís being drafted as an afterthought after an injury-filled 2018. His ceiling is unexciting, but heís undervalued for sure. Jimmy Garoppolo is the last name I would seriously consider, other than maybe an extremely cheap upside bet on Sam Darnold. Garoppolo was hyped in the Shanahan offense prior to his lost 2018, and that promise still exists despite a rough preseason.

I still like Matt Milano, but I have a feeling he should survive the long turn, and I wouldnít be heartbroken if I miss out. Adding to my WR depth might be prudent given my unproven WR3 and our ability to start 4 during most of the season. In the end, I am interested in having the ability to play matchups at QB and guard against the risk of another 2017 for Matt Ryan. Cousins is my preference of the bunch, so heís the pick.

14.10 Matt Milano, LB, BUF
I feel pretty good about the run of players during the long turn. DK Metcalf, DeSean Jackson, and Jerome Baker are the only guys I was significantly looking at, which gives me a whole bunch of options here. The WR pool is the only group I would consider that has dropped a tier. I will say that I didnít give proper consideration to Jacksonís likely PR boost until after I saw him taken, which was a mistake. I think that makes him a nice value this late.

As discussed in my round 13 and 14 rationales, I really like Matt Milano to push through the 9 ppg barrier. He performed at an 8 ppg pace last year before his injury and is now in line for a full complement of snaps for a team that continues to be below average. I especially like his ability to accrue TFL.

I gave a quick look to the next group of WRs as well as backup TEs, but nothing made me think it was worth passing one of the last LBs who inspires actual confidence in me. All the rest are educated speculations.

15.05 Keke Coutee, WR, HOU
Okay, my starting lineup is mostly set. I still need two DB, a kicker, and another IDP; that will almost assuredly be a LB to start the season, although Iíve started three solid DBs at times in the past if I find the right guys. I took another look through the list of safeties and cornerbacks who return, but I continue to feel that there is little separation amongst the group. My top target is Adrian Phillips, but thereís almost no chance heís taken before my next pair of picks.

I still like a number of TEs on the board, which is a strong contrast from last year that I was yet anticipating. Jimmy Graham is going super cheap after only scoring two TDs last year. Darren Waller is being talked up in Oakland in the role that elevated Jared Cook to fantasy starterdom after years of being a tease. Hockenson is being talked up by an analyst I respect, but Iím so skeptical of rookies at this position that I will go elsewhere unless both Graham and Waller have been taken by others.

Among the next group of receivers, I think I can make a strong case for Keke Coutee. His rookie year was frequently limited by a recurrent hamstring problem, but he still managed 50+ targets in only 6 games. Coutee has an excellent quarterback throwing him the ball, and Houstonís lead RB is already out injured for the full season. Heís frustratingly dealing with a meaningful ankle injury of his own, but hopefully will be ready to contribute come week 2 or 3.

WR4 has the most value to me among my needed slots, so being able to identify a player I like for the role means he has to be the pick. My last few IDP starters can wait.
16.10 Jimmy Graham, TE, GB
Not much happened on the long turn. All the backup QBs that have gone since my Cousins pick make me feel pretty good there, especially Stafford at 14.11. Backup RBs have been a huge trend I have avoided. I mostly donít mind, but Iím kicking myself a little for not giving more thought to Malcolm Brown. I believe in Todd Gurley to be used as a clear lead back if not bellcow, but the risk of injury and the reward of owning Brown in that instance is highly appealing.

Itís time to start thinking about what I want my roster to look like from a positional perspective when all is said and done. I have 9 picks left. A kicker, 2 DBs, and a LB will fill out my starting lineup. For the other five, I want one more each of LB/WR/TE. That leaves two extra picks that can be whatever I want. Having failed to acquire Pollard, I wonít be owning a handcuff, as Jacobsí role will become RBBC if he is unavailable. If possible, I want to find an IR-Return player with the upside to contribute once healthy.

At DB, I like the Adrian Phillips/Derwin James combo, which would fill my IR slot and give me a pseudo-LB from a secondary slot until James returns. Phillips and Derwin went in the 19th and 20th rounds of AAA#1, respectively, so that gives me a sense of timeline if I intend to ensure dual ownership. The Phillips portion is more important because his production is concrete rather than speculative. Beyond that pair, Von Bell will get a full complement of snaps in New Orleans, [undrafted] will be his occasionally productive pseudo-LB self, and Reshad Jones is a former stud that didnít play at an elite level last year. The big question with Jones is why. Was it injury, dissatisfaction with the franchise and his contract, role in the scheme, or something else? Miami should again be really bad, so there will be tackles to be had.

Among the WRs, I like Albert Wilson in Miami. Heís fantastic after the catch, and seemed to be coming into his own at times last year. Owning a piece of the Dolphins offensive pie isnít generally exciting, but Wilson could get the target volume to display his elusiveness on a grander scale.

Adam Humphries is a starting WR in Tennessee who may be returning punts. Thatís a classic RIFC combo for late round WR steals. Quincy Enunwa may not participate in the return game, but heís a former 100 target guy who again finds himself a starter, ahead of the more talked about Jamison Crowder. Thereís reason to believe that Sam Darnold will grow in year two, and Enunwa may be able to deliver steady production as a result. Itís not clear to me which Jets receiver will be the real winner. Then there are the rookies with upside but a lack of clear role: AJ Brown in Tennessee, and Marquise Brown and Miles Boykin in Baltimore.

LBs and TEs are still nearly the same as what I described in my 12th round rationale. Vontaze Burfict, Zach Brown, Fred Warner, Jimmy Graham, and Darren Waller are all on the table. Add in Jamie Collins, [undrafted], and [undrafted] for good measure and youíve got yourself a group.

Iím not fully satisfied with where I find my offense, so I want to focus my attention there for this set of picks. That means Albert Wilson or one of the TEs. Greg Olsen is my weakest offensive starter, so I do think it makes sense to back up that position with another upside name in case he fails to pan out. I kind of like Waller better than Graham based on what Iíve read and their respective team situations, but this is such a discount for a proven vet like Graham. There is upside from last yearís receiving yards given another year of practice with Aaron Rodgers and a less staid coaching staff, but all he really needs to do to deliver is score 6 TDs instead of 2.

17.05 Darren Waller, TE, OAK
Extensive depth at LB/DB and the fact Albert Wilson hasnít been drafted in the other RIFC leagues gives me the luxury to triple up at TE. Oakland may be bad, but Jared Cook isnít special and yet turned this role into top 5 TE production. Waller has a nonexistent professional track record due to off-field addiction issues, but heís no former basketball forward.

18.10 Reshad Jones, DB, MIA
Dougís Albert Wilson pick hurt me a bit. I was at first excited about the Stills trade to Houston in terms of opening up opportunity for him, but Iím guessing thatís what put him on the radar for others. Oh well, Iím sure I can still grab a cheap share in one of my other leagues. The Marquise Brown and Fred Warner picks also cut into my watchlists, but still plenty of names there.

I have to choose somebody, so maybe Iíll take my first defensive back. Adrian Phillips is most interesting, but heís unlikely to be useful to me come playoff time. Thatís not an absolute requirement at DB or LB, but itís still preferred. I donít really believe that Reshad Jones will return to his former glory, but thereís always a chance, and this is a cheap price to pay. Iím going to go with Jones and let the market help choose my WR and LB for me.

19.05 Harrison Butker, K, KC
Weíre 250 picks in and only two kickers have been taken. Iím all for playing rent-a-kicker based on matchups, but that wonít stop me from going a few rounds early for a top option. There is little reason to believe that the Chiefs wonít have an outstanding offense again this year, which makes their kicker a must-own. Extra points are the bedrock of kicker consistency. I doubt that anybody left on my player list will make as much of a difference as Butker, so heís the pick.

20.10 Adrian Phillips, DB, LAC
Zach Brown off the board, which is a little disappointing. He was a stud two years ago when he played every down, and that looks possible with the Eagles.

I almost took Phillips two rounds ago, so I might as well take him now. He was great last year after Derwin James got hurt, and heíll be in the same LB-ish role while James recovers on IR. When I can get a little excited about a 20th round pick, I know heís the right choice.

21.05 Jamie Collins, LB, NE
This pick came down to a pair of vets in changed circumstances. Vontaze Burfict will be wearing the communication helmet for a bad Raiders team, while Jamie Collins makes his return to New England and hopefully plays a three-down role. You never can be sure with how the Patriots like to mix and match their personnel. Burfict is the safer pick for steady production, but Collins has more big play value. In the late rounds, the tiebreaker is always upside, so Collins is my final IDP starter.

22.10 Derwin James, DB, LAC
Derwin James was a DB1 last year in his rookie season and received accolades for the quality of his play. Heís on IR with a foot injury, so thereís no guarantee he will be able to play this year. But RIFC has an IR slot so I might as well use it. There are slim pickings in terms of fantasy contributors on IR-Return right now. NíKeal Harry is basically the only other player of interest, so I will make this pick a round earlier than I typically would to ensure that Iím generating value from my IR slot. I donít have any canít-miss targets left on my list.

23.05 Quincy Enunwa, WR, NYJ
Enunwa is a guy I had identified earlier in the draft as a possible late pick and then lost track of a bit. Heís now back on my radar amidst a general lack of interesting names. The only other skill position player that has caught my eye is AJ Brown in Tennessee. Iíve heard good things about his skill set, and Adam Humphries is the only thing standing between him and a full snap count. Brown is back now after missing some of camp with an injury, which is never great for rookies learning a new system.

I can also take a backup IDP. There are a few [undrafted] young LBs that look to be in three-down roles for the first time, but Iím having a hard time choosing amongst them. Von Bell is the option if I go with a safety, but thatís not a position that requires a rostered backup to start the season.

Enunwa feels like the right pick. Heís the only one whoís done it before.

24.10 Von Bell, DB, NO
Once I put James on IR, Iíll be able to add one more player, so I have flexibility in terms of position for this pick. I would have considered AJ Brown here if still available; other than that, Iím not really excited about any of the offensive options, so Iím going to go defense. There are a number of DBs and LBs still on my list of players to track, so itís a matter of picking which one. Theyíre all far enough off the radar that it doesnít really matter which one I take now and which I add from free agency later. Hence, I will go with Von Bell. Heís been reasonably productive in the past and is in line for a full snap count for the first time in years. Thatís reason enough for him to be worthy of a roster slot. Iím not certain that Reshad Jones will be good to go for week 1, so it makes some sense to carry 3 DBs for now. I wonít discuss my other considerations except to say that itís a mix of rookies, guys with role increases, and proven vets in new situations.
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