| Football Forum View the Forum Registry |
| |
| 0 |
Subject: Pickoff Strategy Revisited Posted by: Sludge - [20421222] Sat, Oct 14x, 23:32 Nothing fancy in this thread, just a couple of points that I thought were worth sharing. Madman and I were talking about something the other day, and something came up that I thought would help to show everyone WHY picking all consensus favorites is a bad thing to do. An easy way to keep track of your score (not counting doubles) is to figure out the maximum possible score (including bonus points) for your particular set of picks. Every time you get a game wrong, you subtract 100 points from that total then you subtract an additional 50 points for the first 5 incorrect games in a 14 game week and for the first 6 incorrect games in a 15 game week. Consider the current pick percentages (as of 11:15 PM Central Saturday). The maximum possible score picking all favorites is 706. Get 0 Wrong: 706 Get 1 Wrong: 556 Get 2 Wrong: 406 Get 3 Wrong: 256 Get 4 Wrong: 106 Get 5 Wrong: -44 -44 for getting NINE out of FOURTEEN correct! Now what happens if you pick all consensus underdogs? Get 0 Wrong: 1194 Get 1 Wrong: 1044 Get 2 Wrong: 894 Get 3 Wrong: 744 Get 4 Wrong: 594 Get 5 Wrong: 444 Get 6 Wrong: 344 Get 7 Wrong: 244 Get 8 Wrong: 144 Get 9 Wrong: 44 Get 10 Wrong: -56 So, all you need is FIVE out of FOURTEEN games to be an upset to post a positive score! Doesn't matter which upsets they are! I hope this maybe gives everyone a more intuitive feel for the game. (Madman, you might want to check my calculations. Me do verily goodly at mathematicians when me verily tiredly.) | ||||||
| 1 | azdbacker ID: 3743019 Sun, Oct 15, 04:13 | Good illustration, Sludge, of a point I seem to have forgotten this season. | |||||
| 2 | Guru ID: 330592710 Sun, Oct 15, 07:26 |
Your point is valid and poignant. Your arithmetic applies to a 15 game week. We're currently in the 14-game portion of the schedule. That doesn't change essense of the argument. Only the breakpoint when missed games flip from a cost of -150 to -100. | |||||
| 3 | Sludge ID: 20421222 Sun, Oct 15, 09:48 |
Guru - The arithmetic is correct. Think of it this way. There are a possible of 250 bonus points (for 14 correct games). Subtracting them out 50 at a time, you need to do that 5 times to get rid of them all. | |||||
| 4 | The Pink Pimp ID: 36423223 Mon, Oct 16, 03:27 |
Sounds good to me, My "system" right now involves an emphasis on the underdogs (who let the underdogs out anyway?) which is why I am considering a few options for the upcoming "blind" week. A, Pick as normal based on my guess as to who will win. B, Pick only teams that I have a high expectation will win and leave some games blank. C, Intentionally make no picks at all this week. D, Make all my picks based on who I think will win as in option A above but then reverse all of my selections in hopes that I have correctly picked all the underdogs. So far my only negative week has been the "blind" week four (See my horrid -421 point week 4 here) and that is the main reason reason why I am leaning towards making no picks at all for week 8. The fact that the first game is on Thursday is just another reason why I might sit this round out. Is anybody else thinking about skipping picks this week? | |||||
| 5 | Guru ID: 330592710 Mon, Oct 16, 06:42 |
I should never do arithmetic early on a Sunday morning! The freeze period for Pickoff is different than in the other fantasy games. Your Thursday pick is locked in at the opening kickoff on Thursday, but all other games remain open until Sunday at 1pm EST. The system will just ignore any late changes you try to make in the Thursday night game. | |||||
| 6 | The Pink Pimp ID: 36423223 Mon, Oct 16, 12:14 |
Thanks for the update Guru, I just read in today's blurb that weekend games could still be selected as per normal and came here to add that info but I see you beat me to it. I should have known that your game would make that kind of accomodation. Well, now that one reason for making no picks has been removed (an early Thursday deadline) I still have to grapple with the other one (lack of percentages) and that is the biggie. | |||||
| 7 | Sludge ID: 1440310 Mon, Oct 16, 12:28 |
Hey Guru - Do you look at the percentages on a blind week? It doesn't make much of a difference, obviously, but I was just curious. (It's okay if you do. You can admit it if you peek. Hell, I would. I never was good at games where I knew the cheat codes.) | |||||
| 8 | The Pink Pimp ID: 36423223 Mon, Oct 16, 12:31 |
BTW Guru, here is the section that led me to the conclusion that all picks had to be in by Thursday (emphasis mine), #2 in the Pickoff rules:Each week, you have the opportunity to pick the winner in each of the NFL games. You may also elect to skip any game. By skipping a game, you will score no points for that game - positive or negative. You may change your picks at any time during the week, but your final picks must be saved before the starting time of the first game of the week. Had I read down to #6 I would have clearly seen that there is a special case for weeks with early games. Perhaps you could combine the two entries, add a reference to #6 in the body of #2, or adjust the wording, if you see fit, to make the situation more clear. Just a thought FWIW | |||||
| 9 | Guru ID: 330592710 Mon, Oct 16, 12:40 |
PP - thanks for the alert. I'll clean up the wording. Sludge - I do look at the percentages, partly out of curiosity, and partly out of duty to ensure that the programs are operating correctly. But I make my own picks before I peek, just to be able to share the common experience with all of you. I'll let you guess whether I would ever change one after the fact. Frankly, based on my results so far, I'd be much better off throwing darts - even if they missed the dart board altogether. | |||||
| 10 | Sludge in SC ID: 41962214 Sun, Oct 22, 15:49 |
BUTT I just thought that with the results of this week's games, this little thread might serve as a particularly timely warning. (I still wonder why I try to help the competition...) | |||||
| Rate this thread: | If you wish, you may rate this thread on scale of 1-5. Ratings should indicate how valuable or interesting you believe this thread would be to other users of this forum. A '5' means that this thread is a 'must read'. A '1' means that this is a complete waste of time. If you have previously rated this thread, rating it again will delete your previous rating. If you do not want to rate this thread, but want to see how others have rated it, then click the button without entering a rating, or else click here. | ||||||
| |||||||
Post a reply to this message: (But first, how about checking out this sponsor?) | |||||||