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Subject: RIFC 2010 AAA #2 Rationales #6 - 10
Posted by: judy
- Leader [7771722] Wed, Aug 25, 2010, 19:58
Keep entertaining us!
Remember to use pick #'s and bolds. |
| 1 | loki
SuperDude
ID: 4211201420
Wed, Aug 25, 2010, 22:32
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6.14 Santana Moss, WR, Was-These 2 consecutive
picks were
used to complete the starting WR positions. I liked Moss last
season, but this year with McNabb at QB I am hoping for a big
season.
7.01 Jeremy Maclin, WR, PHI-I chose Maclin to keep
him away
from Judy. Just kidding—he was the best WR available on my
list.
8.14 Jerome Harrison, RB, Cle-He has the edge to be
the
starting RB, and he ended 2009 with a burst. He was one of
the few starting RBs remaining.
9.01 SF 49ers Team Defense-It was time to make
my 1st pick
on the defensive side. I started with team defense because the
pool of IDPs was large and SF was one of the few top Ds
remaining.
Ray Lewis, LB, Balt-I picked Team Def at 9.01
because
I thought that most of the top tier IDPs would be there by
10.14. This theory proved to be very wrong as 12 IDPs were
chosen before the draft got back to me. I thought that Ray
Lewis was the best IDP left so I went with him. I do not like to
pick older players, but I think that Lewis is an exception to
this rule much like Mariano in baseball. At least I hope so.
11.01 Darelle Revis, DB, NYJ-Revis has received a tremendous
amount of hype on WFAN, the NY sports talk radio station.
NY media has him as All World and the best defensive player
in the NFL. I fell victim to the hyperboles and drafted him even
though he is holding out and conceivably might not play in
2010.
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| 2 | Nerfherders
ID: 310111515
Wed, Aug 25, 2010, 22:54
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6.12 Zach Miller, TE OAK
Historically, TE is basically the catcher of fantasy football. After the first two or three are off the board, you may as well wait in the draft. It looks like, however, that there are now many TE's that will play well this year, and the 2nd tier was comparing favorably to the WR on the board. Zach Miller is the main target in Oakland, I think he will have alot of catches and yards, if not alot a TD's.
7.03 Donald Driver, WR GB
I was going to go WR at 6, but decided to wait 5 picks as TE's were still pretty valuable and coming off the board. Driver once was the primary target in GB, but even as the 2nd WR, the offense is so explosive he will have plenty of chances. Age is a bit of a concern but he's never had any serious injuries.
8.12 Clinton Portis, RB WAS
A testatment to the fundamental change in offense in the NFL is that even in the 8th round there were still starting RB on the board. That would not even been a consideration in drafting strategy two years ago. I couldn't pass up taking a flyer on Portis here. If he starts and stays healthy he wont have a problem getting to 1200 yards. He shares a bye with Drew, sadly, but he was too tempting to pass up.
9.03 Julius Peppers, DL, CHI
I wasn't really thinking DL here, but when Cole went off the board, I thought I'd like to make sure to get a top 5 DL, as there is a pretty big drop off after that, even though no DL scores particularly well. Peppers should continue to produce in Chicago, and it's one less position to worry about.
10.12 Yeremiah Bell, DB MIA
I was ready to take Karlos Dansby here, but Ref struck again. I didnt see any other LB that was outstandingly better than Bell, who is a tackle machine at safety. Good solid pick here.
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| 3 | judy
Leader
ID: 7771722
Thu, Aug 26, 2010, 01:20
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6.06 Philadelphia Eagles DST
I goofed on this one. I never thought the draft would go so fast so I popped these guys into round 6. I
had both the iPhone and iPad to check on the draft status and make changes. OOPS -- no can do on
those 2 devices -- some grid program is missing.
I can't be too sad about it though as I see the Iggles DST improving daily with some rookie starters,
some guys with healed injuries. I think we will be much improved from last year --losing coach JJ,
although it was inevitable -- hurt the program. McDermott is molding them into his own unit, based on
JJ's tutelage. I have seen them ranked as high as #1 and #2...
7.09 Paul Posloszny LB BUF
I have wanted to draft him ever since he came out of Penn State but always seemed to let someone else
grab him. When healthy, he is a tackle machine on a team that spends a lot of time on defense! I am
expecting 100 solos TKL and about 40 ATKL. I'll take it!
I have no reasons for popping in an IDP at this point except that I think he will get me more points than
any of the RB2/3 and WR 2/3/4 left on the board. Let's face it -- it's all about the points!
8.06 Devin Aromashodu WR CHI
I did a bit of a panic pick here as I needed to improve offensive team. I had Caddy here and really
wanted him, but HOLT stole him away so I will wait for a crappy RB3/4 for my bye weeks.
So I turned to improving my WR core -- right now I only have DJax, although my TE Finley will play like
a WR this season. Because of my OOPSY Iggles DST pick at 6.06, I lost out on Floyd, Wallace, Knox,
Maclin, Garcon... who were all taken between 6.08 and 7:05. OOPS. So there is a lot of pressure on the
Iggles D...
OK -- so who was next in line? This guy whose name is hard to spell seems to come with an upside for
CHI. He is also referred to as a "sleeper". I have no idea how he will do, but the pressure is on. He is a
big boy (6;2"/201) and Cutler found him a lot at the end of the season. He is currently listed as a WR3,
but I have my doubts that Hester will end up ahead of him -- but I don't think that will happen at the
WR slot. If I had read the Peter King column and known about Rice's surgery before I picked, I probably
would have taken Shiancoe... but I had a busy day...and mjd snatched him with the next pick.
I expect to have to pick up some other WR 3/4's and see who wins the starting spots. I think I messed
up my WR draft.. Oh, well.
9.09 Brandon Graham DE PHL
Love this pick. Read in the local paper this am that he will be the starter opposite Cole. Big kid, great
work ethic, great motor, football intelligence. Has set (unrealistic) goal of 2 sacks per game this season.
Between him and Cole, I can see 30 minimum. Andy NEVER starts rookies, but this kid has earned it.
He also can tackle.
Although he is way down on the cheat sheet lists, and not even on the FFT list (!), I had to
grab him now as TD would have had not one, but TWO chances to grab him before it was my turn again.
10.06 Kenny Britt WR TEN
I wasted this pick. Did I tell you the draft is going too fast for me? (Also dealing with an ill Dad.) Britt
should be a WR1/2, but is struggling in TEN. He has the physical tools, but not the mental ones. On
one sheet, he is just below TO; on another 8 spots above TO -- yeah right. And we all know how often
and well Vince tosses the rock … (that was a joke!) Shoulda picked Mike Williams (TB WR1/2) here (or a
3rd RB), and was lucky enough to land Williams in round 11. I have NO expectations for this kid Britt.
BUT, maybe he ‘ll get his act a gear and prove me wrong… but I am not counting on it. I hate wasting
picks so early. I might as well have picked a PK here for all the value I expect to get. OK Britt boy --
the challenge flag has been thrown -- prove me wrong!
My WR core is a mess except for DJax.
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| 4 | Toral
ID: 377501519
Thu, Aug 26, 2010, 12:17
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6.02 Joe Flacco, QB, Bal
My 5.13 pick was made by autoqueue and upon seeing what had happened I saw that I had been surprised again by another mini-run on QBs, with 4 taken in 5 picks before that. I was particularly surprised and disappointed at TD’s taking Matt Ryan at 5.12, as I expect a big year from him and thot he would still be available in a round or 2.
This pick had been slotted for Felix Jones (6.04) but I now decided whether just to wait and take the last of the next 3 quarterbacks remaining (presumably Flacco, Manning and McNabb) or reach a bit possibly and take the one I like best of the bunch, Flacco here, maybe as the first of a pair of quarterbacks I can mix and match. Flacco and Manning have the same bye, so that would work only with McNabb if he were to slip through to the next round. On balance I decided that my preference for Flacco was great enuf to move now on him and pass on Jones. I’m hoping for a 3rd-year breakout from him. Anquan Boldin is a positive. The conservatism of the offence limits the numbers he can put up.
7.13 Darren Sproles, RB, SD [RIFC 5.01]
I was delighted that Sproles was still available here. With his receiving and returning counted, Sproles projects as a top-20 RB. I owned him last year and he was a bit of a disappointment in that he didn’t show anything as a running back last year in a year when people thot he might possibly take a lot of time from Tomlinson; that didn’t happen even tho Tomlinson crashed and he managed only 3.7 YPC. But he was signed for $7 million for the third-down back and returner slot so he should be able to duplicate last year’s production. And if Mathews doesn’t pan out…. It’s nice to have a RB3 who’s playing a role that makes him less susceptible to injuries than your workhorse backs.
8.02 Owen Daniels, TE, Hou
Bit of a quandary on this pick. At the top of my mind I had the idea of taking McNabb here for a 1-2 punch at QB; Manning and Palmer had been the signal callers who went in the last round. Another possibility was Fred Jackson, who would be making the carries if Spiller’s role didn’t pan out. But I was also desirous of getting a quality tight end if possible. Daniels is projected to be a top-ten TE – if he is healthy. But is he? Between the time of the Sproles pick and the time that holt picked on the turn Rotoworld reported that Daniels’ MRI this week had shown him 100% OK. That was enough for me to move on him and he went to the top of the queue. Subsequently Kubiak declared him to be 100% cleared for the season. Daniels went at 8.03 in RIFC even before this good news.
9.13 Fred Jackson, RB, Buf
How to run for 1,000 yards and catch 46 passes and get no respect. Handcuff for Spiller, my notional RB3; Jackson supposedly has the job but is hampered by a foot problem. If Spiller isn’t playing a 1st- and 2nd- down role, I think Jackson will be. I predicted last year that [undrafted player] would never get his job back from Jackson after his suspension and I was right; Jackson may have been undrafted but he’s a better player and comes with no gun-toting, bar-hopping and leaving-the-scene-of-the-accident exploits. 10.04 in RIFC.
10.02 Montario Hardesty, RB, Cle
I always start picking IDPs later than everyone else, and even when I plan to start it usually seems that something comes up that postpones my picks even later than I expected. To my surprise, the top 3 IDPs I had queued, David Harris, Curtis Lofton, and D. J. Williams were taken at 9.07, 9.08 and 9.12. I was surprised because I see a lot of very disparate rankings for IDPs, and having these 3 picked right in the order I had them took me aback. (The guy I had ranked next, Rolando McClain, was taken right after this pick at 10.03 so everyone seems to be singing out of the same hymn book.) That gave me pause because I had a bit of a gap between those 3 and the next group of IDPs. There comes a point when all the LBs start to look indistinguishable.
The other thing was that I expected that one or both of Jackson and Hardesty would be gone before my picks but both were still there. Despite Harrison’s big finish last year, people I listen to expect him to take over as the feature back sometime during the year. Hardesty didn’t go till round 12 in RIFC so this may have been a reach but my RB situation is precarious and I’m glad to have Hardesty on hand.
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| 5 | dpr
ID: 40781923
Thu, Aug 26, 2010, 18:16
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6.04 Felix Jones and 7.11 Justin Forsett
On these picks the situation was same. The players that I had wanted to take disapearred right before me and I found not much sticking out in terms of good picks. I selected these guys who seem to give good value and the important depth at RBs. With two runnings already selected who should be every week starters I am not sure how much i needed this depth.
8.04 Barrett Ruud
My plan for my IDP was to ignore the top couple linebackers but then get a strong group by picking my top 3 pretty quickly. My getting Ruud I started this plan. By not picking a LB again until the 14th I failed miserably.
9.11 Ben Roethlisberger
With Cutler not being the strongest QB I figured getting some quality depth was important. Roethlisberger will miss a few games but once he returns he will provide top ten value hopefully. Two QBs in this tier lowers my risk of them flopping and struggling at the position all year.
10.04
This pick was a made from a queue and doesnt excite me too much. With only two WRs to this point I felt I needed a WR here and Breaston is who I got. HOpefully the move to Leinart doesnt hurt him to much. I decided I could wait further on LB and that they would be easier to find later. At this point my RB depth was leaving many holes in my lineup.
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| 6 | mjd
Leader
ID: 501381415
Thu, Aug 26, 2010, 19:55
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6.07 Ahmad Bradshaw, RB, NYG
Despite the overall football fantasy draft strategy change
going away from a RB heavy draft as more NFL teams utilize a
RBBC approach, most fantasy teams still stock up on these
guys, as they sustain a serious physical beating throughout
the season, so I figured I’d better get while the getting was
still good. Bradshaw was the last of his tier available in my
rankings and that proved to be the case as the next RB was
not selected until 18 picks later. Of course by now, high end
IDPs are becoming relevant also. I like Bradshaw more than
Jacobs in the Giants scheme a little better, as they seem to be
morphing into more of a passing team. They got into several
shootouts last year and needed to rely on their aerial attack
and Bradshaw appears to be the first RB option. A lot has been
discussed about the contrast of the 2 Giant’s RB styles. Jacobs
is larger in stature and features a more upright running style,
and as Bradshaw is shorter and faster, there is concern
about his durability. He’s only carried the ball just over 250
times in his 3 year career, while Jacobs has amassed at least
200 carries in each of the last 3 years. However, reports from
training camp have them equally splitting time in first team
reps. Good value as the 77th pick IMO.
At this point in our draft, we were in runaway train mode and
Judy made an error in her Q. I thought that due to the
learning curve involved in using a new system, she should be
given the chance to amend her pick. I did this because I
thought it was the right thing to do, not because I knew that
she wouldn’t have a NY Giant on her fantasy football roster. In
any event, she declined and we continued barreling down the
tracks.
7.08 Jared Allen, DL MIN
I don’t usually take a DL this early in the draft, but when it
comes to dominant players, it's hard to find a player who fits
that description better than Vikings' DE Jared Allen. Over the
last five years, Allen has averaged 51 solos and almost 13
sacks, including a whopping 45 sacks in the last three years.
Allen has been a top-five DL in each of the last five years and
finished first in three of them. Allen should be in the 40-45
solo range and will likely approach the 15-sack mark again.
Was targeting Laurinaitis here, but footwedge gave me the
boot on that one. Debated Posluszny here also, but felt
comfortable with the next tier of LB to come. I usually wind
up chasing the flavor of the week and play musical DL all
season. But Allen has an early bye week, allowing me to
jettison his bye week replacement early in the season and play
set it and forget it with confidence with my DL slot the rest of
the season.
8.07 Visanthe Shiancoe, TE, MIN
Felt a need to address my receiving corps here while filling a
vacant roster slot and word of Viking’s WR woes just hit the
presses. This news, while probably lowering Favre’s rankings a
tic, probably increases VC’s a tad. He’s already Favre’s favorite
target in he red zone, as witnessed by his 11 TD catches last
year. Figured that number to be unachievable this year, but
now with this latest news, maybe not.
9.08 Curtis Lofton, LB, ATL
Lofton was the next ranked LB on my list after Pos, who I
passed on last round. Though he has yet to show the elite big
play ability that defines a true stud fantasy LB, his run support
talent gives him good upside and a very high floor, IMO.
10.08 San Diego Chargers Defense
By now, some of the higher ranked Ds were beginning to fall
off the board. Not sure where this group will rate by the end
of the season. But I do like their late bye week and the fact
that their schedule is favorable in my eyes due to the fact that
they play all the teams in the usually weak NFC West.
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| 7 | TD
Leader
ID: 036331011
Sat, Aug 28, 2010, 12:11
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6.03 Reggie Bush, RB NOS
I wanted to pick a 2nd RB with this pick. I think Bush will have a bigger role in the Saints Offense this year being another year removed from his injury. He will be one of the primary options in the red zone, and is used as both a runner and receiver.
7.12 Santonio Holmes, WR NYJ
Holmes will be the Jets #1 receiver when he returns from his 4 game suspension. He has been looking great in the pre-season, and will be motivated to prove the Steelers made a mistake by trading him when he returns.
8.03 Lee Evans, WR BUF
Lee Evans will be the #1 receiver on a weak Bills team. With T.O gone, I expect his numbers will improve. The Bills will be trailing in the 4th quarter of most games, so he should have plenty of opportunities to score.
9.12 D.J Williams, LB DEN
Williams was one of the top fantasy LBs last season. His numbers should improve this season with him being one more year removed from his MCL injury.
10.03 Rolando McClain, LB OAK
MLB McClain was the No. 8 overall pick in the 2010 draft. He is expected to be an every down player, so this should help his numbers. He will have plenty of opportunities to make plays for the Raiders.
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| 8 | Slowhand
SuperDude
ID: 056744223
Sun, Aug 29, 2010, 19:32
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6.05 Tony Gonzales TE ATL.
I rarely select TE until late in the draft, but by now I know Rice is out and I need a good reciever. The TEs were starting to move off the board pretty fast and so I tought I colud kill 2 birds with one stone. Gonzo's numbers will likely be better than any WR available here and I got him a full round later than he was taken in the big boys draft;-)
7.10 T.J. Houshmanzadeh WR SEA.
I really was hoping for Malcolm Floyd at this spot; but a run on WRs just after my last pick took him and the 4 other recievers I had listed ahead of him off the board early; but it really didn't matter,with the Rice injury I felt I had to have a WR here. Hasselbeck's health and the OL may be the biggest factors in how TJ's seasons goes but the division is weak and we'll hope for the best.
8.05 Ricky Williams RB MIA>
I'm not sure what to expect from Williams this year, he's kind of my "what the hell" pick of the year. I kind of wanted another WR here and was anxious to start on my IDPs; but ricky seemed like a good value here.I also looked at Portis and Jerome Harrison here but what the hell I put Williams ahead of them.
9.10 Green Bay Packers DEF.
As many of you know, I've been a Packer fan since the early 60's. So far from a fan's standpoint my draft has been pretty boring. While I feel I have gotten some good values I need some thing to cheer for.This may have been a bit of a reach and I certainly had other needs but bottom line as much as I enjoy the competition It's more fun when you can pull for your team (instead of those nasty Vikings)
10.5 Vince Young QB TEN
I had Young targeted for around this pick as soon as I picked Farve. I really like his upside, he's strong and athletic,coming into the season healthy and could easily be my starter if Farve and the Min.recievers all end up on the sidelines.
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| 9 | Ref
Donor
ID: 539581218
Sun, Aug 29, 2010, 23:27
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6.11 J Knox, WR, CHI
Well, I am not totally sold on this guy, but I still think he could be a little under-rated. Reading up on him, he seems to be the go to guy in Chicago. Not that it nec. means a lot in the Windy City.
With all the reaching that is going on, I see that other teams are going to need WRs and didn't want to take a chance on him not being here. What really hurts me is that all three of my WRs have week 8 byes. I actually checked to make sure there was anyone playing that week. 5 of my first 6 picks have week 8 byes. Scary.
7.04 Eli Manning, Q, NYG
Now 6 of my first 7 have week 8 byes. Do I punt the week and keep loading up on week 8s? Seems like that might be easy to do.
So everyone goes on these QB runs, twice, yet I get I ignore it and still land Eli. He's at the top of the 2nd tier IMM and had a career year last season. I've had him in this league in the past and got him too soon and paid dearly for it. He has some developing young receivers and I have his top WR already. Could be fest or famine with that. I know I'm putting my eggs in one basket, but I don't plan on getting another QB until late. If Eli goes down, I'm doomed.
8.11 B Berrian, WR, MIN
This guy has screwed me in the past, but with Favre back and Rice down and the questions surrounding Harvin, Berrian has the most to gain. Favre targets him the most when he's in the game and his hammy is healed. To be honest, I'm a little surprised he fell this far, but I figure a lot of people are using cheat sheets and they've probably not been updated with the changes in Minny's system.
I had to get a non-wk 8 bye player and this is a value pick for me as well as protection for injury. He also could be more productive than Knox, whom I took a couple rounds earlier.
9.04 Leon Washington, RB, SEA
This pick could be the pick of the draft, or it could be a wasted pick. From what I'm reading, it appears that he has the inside track on taking over the run game in SEA. We know what he was doing pre-injury. If he's anywhere close to that with the starting job and Hass on his last leg, he could actually be my #2 RB.
10.11 K. Dansby, LB, MIA
Time to get an IDP. Dansby seems to be a great value here. Looked at several LBs here, but he seemed like the best. It's possible I can get a couple of the ones I'm looking at on the snake. Dansby has high tackle numbers and is very consistent. WIll give me points I can count on each week.
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| 10 | russelldl
ID: 333242520
Wed, Sep 01, 2010, 20:55
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6.13 RIFC Bound- Malcolm Floyd WR SD
This pick was a bit of a risk considering it largely depends on another yet undrafted WR’s situation. But it looks more and more like Floyd could end up as the #1 WR in SD. I knew that I would be weak at WR with Crabtree being my top WR. So I think I’ve fortified the ranks by adding Meachem and Floyd. Floyd and Meachem both have week 10 byes but considering I have 10 weeks to figure that out, I’m not too worried.
7.02 RIFC Bound- Kellen Winslow TE TB
This was a difficult pick because I didn’t want to wait on a TE but I wasn’t in love with anyone left on the board. I figure that Winslow, if he can stay healthy, if pretty much the only target in TB. Regardless of who that trot out at QB they have to throw the ball to someone and Winslow is the only reasonable target. SO he should see plenty of targets on a terrible team. Last year that gave him 800 yard and 5 TDs. Assuming they don’t fire their offensive coordinator a week before the season, his numbers should stay the same and maybe even improve.
8.13 RIFC Bound- Trent Cole DL PHI
I was looking for a DL that could put up 60 tackles and 10 sacks. Cole usually can give you those numbers. Last year his tackles were a little low but he came up with 12 sacks. Given his consistency, I expect the same this year.
9.02 RIFC Bound- London Fletcher-Something LB WAS
I’m big on tackles when it comes to IDPs. Sacks, forced fumbles, and INTs can really fluctuate year to year but tackles tend to stay consistent. Fletcher should be a lock for well over 100 tackles this year. Any extra stats will be a plus.
10.13 RIFC Bound- NY Giants DEF
Why the hell am I drafting so many Giants?? I have no idea. But I felt the NYG defense was the best left on the board. It does require the D-line to come around but they have so many good DEs that they’ll get their sacks and Coughlin will make sure they’re stout everywhere else.
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| 11 | Footwedge
ID: 42756106
Mon, Sep 06, 2010, 17:04
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6.09 New York Jets, DEF
Pretty happy with the RB and WR start. Saw Judy start DEF so I felt comfortable moving on a top 2 DEF.
7.06 James Laurinatis, LB, STL
Again felt like gambling on defensive studs over offensive depth. With the WR’s that I liked moving and QB options down to lower levels, plus TE to a point where I can get one equal much later.
8.09 McNabb, QB WAS
I have 2 top end LB so time to get a QB while LB runs start. McNabb may be risky but not many safe options at this point. I think he will produce to the level drafted.
9.06 Jacoby Jones, WR, Houston
Really like this guy and his ability to find the endzone. He should get reasonable amount of looks and Kick returns a plus.
10.09 DeMeco Ryans, LB, Houston
At this point with offense in good shape. I decided to look for high quality starters before filling depth
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