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Subject: RIFC AAA #1 Draft Rationales
Posted by: Jaydog
- [337481614] Mon, Sep 03, 2018, 16:30
Not required for AAA, but I like to do it so I can look back on past drafts and figure out what I was thinking! Would love to have some people join me! |
| 1 | Jaydog
ID: 337481614
Mon, Sep 03, 2018, 16:48
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Draft selection (8): When ranking my top targets, I had a pretty solid top 8 that I felt good about. I would have been happy with any of the 8, so when my choice came around and 8 was sitting there I jumped at it.
1.08: Saquon Barkley, RB, NYG
My top 8 included the obvious running backs, plus Antonio Brown, and as stated above I would have been happy with any of them. Prior to the draft, I assumed I'd be picking between Melvin Gordon and Leonard Fournette, with an outside shot of Antonio Brown. With Gordon going 6, and Brown going 7, my choice ended up between Barkley and Fournette. I never thought Saquon would make it to me, so had spent the prior week or two settled on Fournette, which was hard to break away from, but given that every ranking I could find had Barkley well ahead of Fournette, I went with the "experts" versus my gut. Saquon should be a workhorse in NY, a true three down back with little competition for carries. The offensive line has been a problem in the past for NY, but they hopefully improved that this offseason. Fournette's checkered injury history also worried me a bit. While I initially second guessed the choice, I'm completely at peace with it now and am excited to see what the rookie can do.
2.07: Jordan Howard, RB, CHI My pre-draft strategy was to go RB/RB in the first two rounds, unless one of Julio, Hopkins, Adams, Thomas, or Allen fell to the second round. None of them did, making the decision here pretty straight forward. My debate was between Jordan Howard and Joe Mixon. I ended up choosing Howard because the Chicago offense should be much improved, and it sounds like Tarik Cohen is going to get most of his work as a reciever. The new Bears coach has also gone on record saying that Howard is going to be a three down workhorse for them, which is good to hear. If he can bump up his catch volume a bit, on top of this ground work, I think there's upside for him to deliver RB1 value as my RB2. While I think Mixon has a lot of potential as well, there's still Geovanny Bernard lurking in the backfield, and Marvin Jones continues to talk negatively about his maturity. Just enough risk to make Howard the choice.
3.07: Doug Baldwin, WR, SEA My pre-draft strategy was to go WR in the 3rd, assuming I started RB/RB, unless either Gronk or Kelce were available. Neither were, so I took who I thought was the best WR available in Baldwin. His health is a bit of a concern, but given a pass happy offense, without a stable running game, and without Jimmy Graham in the passing game, I expect Baldwin to be VERY active. When healthy, he's put up Top 10 WR numbers, and I'm very happy to have him leading my corps.
4.07: Jarvis Landry, WR, CLE
Planned on going WR here, but after missing out on Kelce and Gronk, I was a bit tempted by Ertz. I ended up going WR, feeling that Ertz wasn't enough of an upgrade over the next tier of TE. The WR's I considered here were Landry and Demaryius Thomas, both of whom I liked a lot. Landry is more valuable in a PPR, but even in this standard format, he's put up really nice numbers in the past. He's seen some huge target numbers in the preseason, and should be in an offense that is throwing a lot. I worry a bit about Cleveland's efficiency at QB, but given that I expect them to be playing from behind more often than not, I think he'll put up some nice consistent numbers.
5.08: Bobby Wagner, LB, SEA
I had no intention of taking a LB (or any IDP) this early. Last season I took two LB's (Kwon Alexander and Navarro Bowman) in the 4th and 6th round, and both backfired on me, so my plan was to wait on IDP's. When looking at the available players, I just couldn't see a lot of separation in talent between a decent chunk of WR, RB, QB, or even TE options. My final two, ended up being between Wagner, and Goodwin, and I chose Wagner. He's been a top 2 LB in the RIFC scoring format in back to back years, and if anything should have more tackling opportunities than ever. The Seattle defensive line has seen Michael Bennett and Avril depart, and the defense as a whole has really fallen... hopefully leading to lots of long drives, and tackles. While this certainly could backfire, he seemed like a clear LB1, and is hopefully as safe as they come.
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| 2 | Jaydog
ID: 337481614
Mon, Sep 03, 2018, 17:06
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6.07: Trey Burton, TE, CHI
I had planned to wait on TE, as I felt there was a decent amount of depth in the 3rd tier. Seeing Engram, Graham, and Olsen go off the board, I decided to jump in. There were still a few TE's I'd have been comfortable with (Rudolph, Walker, and Reed) but went with Burton. He's been hyped up all pre season, so I was a bit wary of hyping him up too much, but felt he had more upside than the other 3, and was worth the gamble. Matt Nagy made Kelce a star, and Burton has looked great in his limited playing time w/ Philly and in the preseason. Pre-draft, I assumed I'd end up with Rudolph or Reed, but talked myself into Burton enough to jump on it.
7.08: Joey Bosa, DE, SDC
In a draft where I said I wouldn't jump on IDP's early, I now have two of them by the 7th round. This was another time where it was almost less about Bosa, and more about not being enamored with any of my other options. Bosa is being ranked by a lot of experts as the top DL this year, and without the health concerns as the other consensus DL stud (Watt). Thought about Luck (too many other QB's available I liked almost as much), and Edelman (see below).
8.07: Julian Edelman, WR, NEP
I've had Edelman on my radar since the 4th round, and at each turn, I decided I just wasn't that comfortable with a 32 year old reciever, coming off of major knee surgery, and a PED suspension. In the 8th round though... I'll take those risks for Top Brady's favorite target, in a passing offense that is without a ton of options. I think there's WR2 upside, in a guy I just got in the 8th round. I'll have to piece together a WR3 for his suspension weeks, but hoping he comes back fresh.
9.08: Peyton Barber, RB, TB
I normally like to take my RB3 considerably earlier than this, but given that I started by draft with two RB's, both of whom should be very reliable, I waited it out this year. With that said, I just couldn't let Barber last any longer. He's looked great this preseason, and is going into the season as the starter for Tampa. To get a starting RB, one who's played well when given the chance, in the 9th round (and 39th RB) seems like a steal.
10.07: Landon Collins, S, NYG
Another IDP in a draft where I said I'd wait on IDP's... This was another situation where it was more about separation between in this case Collins, and the next tier, where it seemed worth it to jump in. Collins was the top DB in the RIFC scoring format in 2016, and top 5 in 2017 (while missing the last two games). The Giants did add Alec Ogletree, but are still without a LB that soaks up tackles, which should leave plenty of opportunity for Collins. While I didn't plan on taking 3 IDP's in my first 10 picks, I'm very happy to have a consensus top 1-2 players at each IDP position.
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| 3 | Jaydog
ID: 337481614
Mon, Sep 03, 2018, 17:24
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11.08: Christian Kirksey, LB, CLE
I'm smitten with IDP's. Was really close to pulling the trigger on a QB (as I had been for a few rounds now), but noticed that I was the only team without one, and figured I had some time before teams started drafting their second. There were still 4-5 QB's I would have been happy with, so rolled the dice and took Kirksey here. Cleveland's defense should still be below average, and their top FA acquisition (Kendriks) had just been released. There's some decent competition for tackles with Shobert and Jaime Collins, but felt there should be enough love to go around for Kirksey to return solid LB1/2 value. I've seen him consistently ranked in the top 10, so happy to have him in the 11th round (LB16).
12.07: Phillip Rivers, QB, SD
This is the longest I've ever waited on QB, and I decided I couldn't wait any longer. Rivers as my QB1 no longer has a top 5 QB ceiling, but I think his floor is as high as anyone still available. Just about every ranking I could find had him in the 10-15 range, which I'd be perfectly content with. The Hunter Henry injury takes a top target away from Rivers, but he's done well with mediocre talent in the past. Just last season, he was 8th highest producing QB, and if Mike Williams takes a step forward, that should provide him another down field threat to throw too. I'll try and pair Rivers with another solid option, so I can play matchups, but I'm very happy with Rivers as my QB1 after waiting 12 rounds to jump in.
13.08: Jared Goff, QB, LAR
Going into this draft, I planned on waiting out QB as long as I could, but then trying to take two decent middle tier options. Now that teams were starting to take their 2nd QB (Mariota at 13.05), I figured I'd jump at Goff to avoid risking a run on 2nd QB's. I had Goff as a streaming QB option last season, and as long as you didn't have to start him against elite passing defenses, he put up really solid numbers. He had a few terrible games against the Jags, Seahawks, and Vikings, but he lit up the mediocre defenses (49ers, Giants, Texans, etc...). Despite a few clunkers, he still ended up the 12th highest scoring QB. I'll be able to play matchups, along side Rivers, and as long as I guess right more often than not, I expect to get some decent production from my two QB's. Also, there's reason to expect further growth from Goff in his 3rd year, with roughly the same offense as last year, other than what should be an upgrade of Brandin Cooks over Sammy Watkins.
14.07: Trey Flowers, DE, NYP
Time to start rounding out my starting lineup, and looking at available options, I thought Flowers was a nice value. He was a top 10 DL last season, and isn't quite as sack dependent as a few of the other guys I was considering. His health is a bit of a concern, as he hasn't played much this preseason, but I can tolerate that as my 2nd DL.
15.08: Michael Gallup, WR, DAL
I'm still without a WR3 for Edelman's suspension weeks, and I was starting to get a bit panicked. There were a bunch of WR's I almost jumped at (Cobb, Anderson, M. Williams, etc...) but just none that I felt were decent enough options when compared to other guys that should be in my starting lineup for longer than 4 games. Gallup was a pre-draft target for me, and decided to jump at him here. Dallas is pretty void of passing targets, and Gallup has drawn some solid reviews in the preseason. Prescott seems to have decent chemistry with him, and given that he's only really competing with Terrance Williams for outside targets, there's a decent chance for him to carve out a pretty nice role. I always worry about rookie recievers, but in the 15th round, I'm fine rolling the dice.
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| 4 | Jaydog
ID: 337481614
Tue, Sep 04, 2018, 15:10
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16.07: Tahir Whitehead, LB, OAK
Whitehead has been a tackle monster for a few seasons now. He put up top 10 tackle numbers in 2016 and top 20 numbers in 2017. I like consistency in my LB options, and soaking up tackles is the best way to provide week to week consistency. He now joins an Oakland team that should be on the field a lot, and doesn't have a lot of guys that should take tackles from Whitehead. Happy to have him as my LB3.
17.08: Chris Godwin, WR, TAM
I feel pretty good about my top 3 WR's, and think Gallup has potential as a 4th option, but rookie WR's are known to dissapoint, so thought Godwin was another nice "upside" guy to fill my bench with. It's looking like he'll replace D Jax as the WR2 in Tampa, and should face a fair amount of single coverage with Evans and Howard on the field. Preseason reports have been positive, so he seems like the perfect guy to take a flier on.
18.07: Ricky Seals-Jones, TE, ARI
I'm banking on Burton to be an every week TE option for me, but wanted some semblance of a backup in case he does not pan out. I was hoping to take Ebron or Eifert earlier in the draft, but didn't jump early enough. RSJ showed flashes of production last season, and should go into this season with the starting job locked up. As long as Bradford stays healthy, he'll have an upgraded QB throwing to him, and has a shot at some decent numbers. Hope he's a bye week filler, but I think there's a chance he's something more.
19.08: Sean Davis, S, PIT
From week 7 on (after the Shazier injury), Davis was the 5th ranked defensive back in RIFC scoring. While Pittsburgh has added some Safety help in Morgan Burnett, they did little to fill their linebacker deficiency, so I expect Davis to be a tackling machine again. I'm seeing him pretty consistently ranked as a top 10 DB, so to get him at DB21 seems like steal.
20.07: Corey Clement, RB, PHL
I felt pretty good w/ my backups at all positions, but only having 3 RB's on the roster, I decided to add some depth. Clement has provided some modest value, even when the PHL backfield is stocked, however in the event of a Sproles or Ajayi injury, he could offer some nice production.
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| 5 | Jaydog
ID: 337481614
Tue, Sep 04, 2018, 15:15
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21.08: Chris Ivory, RB, BUF
I was looking for the RB that had the highest likelihood of providing value, and figured Ivory was it. McCoy's an injury, or suspension, away from Ivory possibly being in the RB2 conversation, and figured that's as good as I'm going to find at this point in the draft.
22.07: Matt Bryant, K, ATL
I typically wait until the last round or two to draft a kicker, but looking at the available options I felt that Bryant was one of the last "set it and forget it" kickers available. He normally doesn't have as many opportunities as other kickers, but he's as good as they come in kicking 50 yarders. Combine his big leg, with what should be a high powered offense, and kicking over half of his games inside, I'll look forward to "hopefully" not worrying about kicker until his bye.
23.08: Jonathan Stewart, RB, NYG
Nothing more than a Saquon Barkley handcuff. Hope he never sniffs my lineup, but if there's an early injury to Barkley, he'll be in the mix.
24.07: Frank Clark, DE, SEA
Felt pretty good about my skill position depth, so went looking for an IDP with upside. Trey Flowers is listed as questionable for week 1, so decided to take Clark in the event that Flowers doesn't suit up. Clark has put up solid numbers for a few seasons now, and no longer has Bennett or Avril to contend with in the front 7.
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| 6 | artofmonk
ID: 45435111
Wed, Sep 05, 2018, 15:08
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well jaydog I think it is good to look at it too, but I never do.
1.12 Dalvin CookRB, MN
I am a huge fan, but I am a little concerned about the knee. I might have been able to get him in the 2nd rd. I passed on Beckham and I hope I don't regret it.
2.03 Michael Thomas, WR NO-
Looked at Freeman and Howard. I hope he gets a ton of targets from Brees. Maybe a little early for him.
3.03 Alex Collins- RB-BAL
I think he could be a top 5 RB. I reached for him because I didn't think he would be there in the 4th rd.
4.03 Amari Cooper, WR, OAK
still only 24 and should be the focal point of the passing game.
5.12 Corey Davis, WR, TEN
once again maybe a little early, but I wanted my guy. Could be huge or could be a bust. I am waiting for Mariota to break out and davis should be right there.
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| 7 | artofmonk
ID: 45435111
Wed, Sep 05, 2018, 16:27
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6.03 Greg Olsen, TE, CAR
I was really hoping Goodwin or Brees were available. I should have waited on Davis. I think Olsen does have good value at 73, but he has let me down in the past. I targeted Rudolph and I should have waited.
7.12 Sammy Watkins- WR-KC
I am hoping a change would help him, but it doesn't appear so. He is the #3 option maybe 4th, so he will not be consistent. I was hoping for some top LB or Luck to fall to me. Also lots of QB's went between my picks. Making my 5th and 6th rd picks iffy. Not excited my Sammy.
8.03 Carson Wentz, QB, PHI
Hopefully back in Week 2. I was really hoping for Cousins and he went two picks in front of me. It makes my Watkins pick even worse.
9.12 Tarik Cohen, RB, CHI
My que got hit too hard and Cohen happened to be at the top. My mistake. I like him but not sure he is going to have the ball enough. Maybe he will do KR. Should have taken a LB>
10.03 Chris Thompson, RB, WAS
Another iffy pick. I am hoping he gets the touches. I think AP will get a lot of touches at the beginning of the season trying to save Thompson, but if AP is doing well he will continue. I ignored IDP because I was concerned with a 3rd RB-mistake. Ogletree would have been nice.
11.12 Yannick Ngakoue, DE JAX
I had LB set on my que brwon, Lavonte, miller, Kirksey. all got taken so I had DE on my que. Not excited. I should hae had Roquan Smith.
12.03 Budda Baker, S, AZ
Well I said screw LB and picked up a solid safety. He is pretty solid my LB are going to be weak.
13.12 Deone Bucannon, LB, AZ
I don't know much about him. he has avg 80 tackles a year, but a little dinged up right now. Was hoping Barron, smith, mariota or Goff would slide to me.
14.03 Danny Trevathan, LB, CHI
Back to back LB. Maybe should have taken Hyde at S. If he can stay healthy he should produce alright.
15.12 Kevin Byard, S, TEN
I went for my 2nd S. I was hoping for Jabrill Peppers or Dunlap. I almost took HA HA, but I think TEN will not be as good on OFF, so the Def will be on the filed more.
16.03 Blake Bortles. QB, JAX
Hopefully I only need to start him twice, but if Wentz isn't back for week two, this could be trouble.
17.12 Geronimo Allison, WR, GB
My favorite pick. I think Cobb is about done and rumors of him being traded just help allison. Even a #3 if GB should be good. I couldn't wait on him any longer. I almost took him in the 15th.
18.03 Alfred Morris, RB, SF
Got lucky with the news that Alfred would be the #1 RB for the most part. Not a long term RB, but could be a good fill in or trade bait for someone that needs a RB.
19.12 Aikem Hicks, DE, CHI
At this stage of the draft, I am just filling needs and it is all a crap shoot. Mack got traded to CHI and I thought that could really help hicks. Why not take a flier on him.
20.03 KJ Wright, LB, SEA
Hopefully he won't miss too much time. I need another LB and rolling the dice here. Could be a great pick this late or he could miss three weeks. I thought i could wait on Mason Foster for another rd.
21.12 Eric Berry, S, KC
I wanted Mathieu, but I will settle for Berry. I think the secondary is going to be very big mess expect for fuller and berry. As FS hopefully he will make a ton of tackles.
22.03 Austin Hooper, TE, ATL
I thought I needed a backup TE. Maybe Ryan will pass it to the TE on occasion. then again maybe not.
23.12 Mason Crosby, K, GB
I am not going to say much about a K.
24.03 Rueben Foster, LB, SF
Suspended the first two games, but could do something very nice after that. still very young. No sacks and only two games with double digit tackles.
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| 8 | twilson
ID: 138241911
Wed, Sep 19, 2018, 12:24
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0.02 Draft Slot #3
At the time of the draft lottery, I was generally comfortable with the idea of going anywhere other than the 7-8 range. I saw a clear top 5+1 followed by a deep next tier that extended midway into the second round. Not that I didn’t have priorities within that grouping, but those were the dividing lines that guided my pick process. A quick glance through rounds three and four suggested that I wasn’t likely to hate the player pool at any point.
When I ended up with a very early pick in the lottery, I was forced to evaluate an extensive list of options. Given RIFC’s historical emphasis on RB, I felt I had the luxury of positioning myself to get a RB in round 1. Three scenarios in particular rose to the top: (A) Elite RB + round 2 leftovers, (B) Preferred sub-elite RB + Gronk/Hill, or (C) leftover sub-elite RB + BPA/Gronk. I loved the idea of positioning myself for Gronkowski in round 2, but his ADP of ~21 was particularly volatile. I could see him going as early as the turn or drop to the late 2nd. After Gronk, I would also be happy with Tyreek Hill in the 2nd. His expected negative regression in receiving stats is countered strongly by positive regression in punt returns and rushing. He had nearly 600 more PR+rush yds in 2016 than 2017. Adding half of that back in will keep him clearly in the top three WRs. The addition of Watkins is a good thing in this format; it pretty much ensures that Hill will keep returning punts all year.
With the negative buzz surrounding Hill in the media at the time, I figured his non-RIFC ADP of 28 would remain reasonably true despite the return bonus. That gave me a bit of comfort that settling for him or maybe a Jordan Howard in the later 2nd would give me value close enough to what I’d find in the early-mid 2nd. As a result, I decided that locking in an elite RB score every week was worth the downgrade in rounds 2, 3, and 4. I took #3 because I didn’t see all that much difference between the big four and I wanted an injury buffer.
1.03 Le’Veon Bell RB, PIT
Entering the draft, I knew Gurley would be gone, and likely one of Bell/Elliott as well. In terms of safety, I ranked the big four Gurley>Bell>Elliott>Johnson. In terms of upside, it roughly went Johnson>Elliott=Gurley=Bell. Gurley is the best combination of both traits, which is why he makes sense as the top pick. After that, it’s really a question of which risk profile I want to own most.
Bell has the best track record of all four players, his offense remains mostly intact, and his volume is astronomical. The holdout risk is a concern, though he was able to stay healthy doing it last year. I haven’t read a source that predicts he will continue his holdout into the season, but you never know.
Elliott is locked in when rushing the ball, but he doesn’t have reception totals anywhere near the others. There’s real talk of getting him more involved in the passing game, so I am projecting an increase there, though still only to an average level. However, there aren’t really any other threats in that offense to take the heat off of him, and his offensive line has taken some significant hits over the past week.
Johnson’s 2016 season was every bit as good as Gurley’s 2017. He’s a truly special receiver at the position, with an average depth of target much more like a slot receiver than a running back. Plus, he’s had the target volumes to match. Johnson’s injury was not one that should affect him at all moving forward, but like Elliott, there are concerns about his offense. Also, he has a new head coach/OC that may not use him as effectively or heavily as in the past. That would be stupid of them, but it’s not like Arizona leads the way in franchise reputation.
I should at least mention Antonio Brown in passing. He is highly worthy of a pick anywhere in the top 5. He’s an even safer pick than Gurley, with similar upside. I just want to start with an RB from early draft slots this year.
The OL issues in Dallas matter enough to me to drop Elliott to 4th in the tier. Last year, I valued Johnson and Bell similarly entering the season. This year, my opinion of Bell’s touchdown volume has decreased, but I also do fear the new Cardinals leadership. Thus, when Elliott left the board at #2, I stuck with what I considered the safer choice and went with Bell.
2.12 Mike Evans WR, TB
Well, would you look at that! I was so close to having my choice of my two 2nd round targets, but they both left the board in the two picks immediately preceding mine. Kudos to blue hen especially for snagging the duo I was dreaming about.
I was left in exactly the position I was hoping to avoid pre-draft. I think this fourth Rotoguru Invitational draft of my past five where I’ve managed to back myself into that positon. It is very frustrating, especially when it’s all my own fault!
By ADP, Joe Mixon is the dropper, but I am not sold that he is going to be a bellcow. Jerick McKinnon gives me similar pause, especially as a veteran who has never come close to justifying this price. All of the RBs here have question marks. I’m most interested in Alex Collins, but my second round pick should have a higher ceiling than that.
Next up is Mike Evans, who is someone I have been planning to fade this year due to his inefficiencies at the goal line and the emergence of Chris Godwin. Other WRs that’ll likely be taken before my next pick are Hilton, Baldwin, Thielen, and Diggs. I hate drafting players with soft tissue injuries due to the risk of aggravation, and Andrew Luck is no sure thing, but I do like the Vikings duo. Diggs is dynamic and is getting hyped as the favorite target of Kirk Cousins, but he has missed games every season. Thielen is a talented route runner with a limited track record, but I believe in his talent.
It stings being so close to getting Gronk, but I could take Kelce at TE. There is plenty of depth at WR this year which lets me wait if I want to stock up elsewhere. I do also think TE offers value at multiple other points in the draft, so it’s not an imperative. I’m a little concerned that Mahomes will be less interested in targeting his TE than Alex Smith, but Kelce’s talent is undeniable and I consider Mahomes an upgrade overall.
There are no super-elite IDPs, and it’s too early for a quarterback. So this pick is all about whether I want to invest in an elite TE or start establishing my WR corps. Both are something of a luxury, but that’s okay. I made the call to go WR to maximize future draft flexibility. Thielen’s health puts him slightly ahead of Diggs on my board, but I just couldn’t resist the consensus value of Evans. He’s been drafted at least this high for each of the past four years, including as a unanimous RIFC top 10 pick in 2017. I may have my doubts, but the volume should still be there and the ceiling is as high as anybody remaining.
3.12 Adam Thielen WR, MIN
Okay, those 14 picks did not proceed as I expected. I guess we are the RB-heavy league this year. Well, that just means there is more value elsewhere for me to grab! Both of the MIN WRs I considered last time around made it back to me, which makes them obvious priorities. Even though it will now be my WR2, I still prefer Thielen’s lack of past soft tissue injuries over Diggs’ blowup potential.
4.12 Marshawn Lynch RB, OAK
It’s time to get on the board with my RB2. We’re approaching the end of the potential workhorse/high ceiling lead committee back tier. There’s a decent chance that one or more interesting names might make it back to the 6/7 turn, but it’s by no means guaranteed, especially with the emphasis that has been placed on the position by many owners. I don’t feel pressure to lock down an RB2 given the bye week lineup flexibility that comes into play weeks 4-12, but I’m not going to turn up my nose at a player that I feel offers value.
Marshawn Lynch is at the top of my list. He underperformed expectations last year, but that was largely due to working in a heavy committee for the first half of the season. In later games, the Raiders trusted him to shoulder the load. Jon Gruden has come in emphasizing the ground game with both his words and his player acquisitions. There’s certainly a chance this develops into another committee with Doug Martin, but I have can’t say I have a lot of confidence that Martin will perform at Lynch’s level.
Beyond Lynch, I could see myself being happy with Rex Burkhead. There’s a lot more risk there, as one can never be quite sure how New England will split their workload, but opportunity exists for multiple Patriots running backs to be fantasy starters. The guy I take will be RB#26. Sony Michel is a threat, but missing the preseason with injury is particularly impactful for rookies in their first camp. My projections also like Tarik Cohen thanks to his dual returns role, but I haven’t loved his minimal use in preseason games.
Though I wasn’t expecting it to be a possibility, I would’ve had to take Zach Ertz had he lasted four more picks. I had considered TE to be a possible direction at the 4/5 turn in my pre-draft planning, but all of those names are still on the board, so their consideration can wait for 5.03. Same for IDP.
Lynch is the obvious pick to me. No need to overthink it.
5.03 Tyler Lockett WR, SEA
This was an interesting little pick. I felt so much freedom to go in virtually any direction I wanted, which isn’t uncommon in round 5 when I’ve locked in my starting RBs. The Olsen/Engram/Graham TE tier is still intact, and no IDPs have yet been taken. I could splurge on a WR3 or even RB3. For that matter, elite IDP also feels like a luxury, especially in AAA. I’m often the first guy to take a DL, but I just don’t see anybody worth it. As much as I love him, I think I’m taking the year off from JJ Watt at his cost with that injury history. I want to see him actually healthy and on the field before I think about a single digit round pick on him. Now that the Seattle scorer has decided to properly grant tackles, I agree with the consensus that Bobby Wagner is the top IDP. Great player, strong TFL numbers, solid situation.
I hate that his price is similar to last year despite the injury, but Greg Olsen is my top TE here. Engram has the talent and upside, but could be facing a volume crunch, not to mention my lack of confidence in Eli. I don’t like owning Jimmy Graham; even if he turns out to be a good fit in Green Bay, he always seems to tail off in the second half after the brutality of the NFL has its way with him.
I’m not confident enough in the RBs to indulge in a third right now. WR is a different story. Even with three strong receivers going on the turn, I still have my choice of Tyler Lockett and Emmanuel Sanders. Lockett is another format darling as a Pro Bowl return man. He’s finished all three of his season as a WR2 at minimum and is projected to take on a larger volume share now that Paul Richardson has moved on. I’ve read mixed things about his receiving talents, but there are a couple analysts I respect that continue to cheerlead on his behalf to give me a bit of optimism that the volume boost is reasonable. It is also reasonable to believe that Lockett’s 2017 was impacted by his offseason recovery from a broken leg. He may not have played at full strength, so a healthy offseason could be just what the doctor ordered.
Sanders is a talented veteran who has been riffing strongly with Keenum in preseason. He’s inevitably been held back in recent years by Denver’s ugly QB play, so the upgrade to mere competence that Keenum provides could be a game changer. Just look at what happened in Houston last year. Or even Minnesota! Keenum displayed the capability to lead two high volume WRs to matching top 20 seasons. The situation in Denver looks to have equally few rivals for targets, unless you are buying that the new rookie will play well enough to make it a three-headed monster attack. Sanders has three top 20 seasons under his belt, and the draft price is no higher than it was last year.
It’s tough to figure out if either of the WRs have a chance to survive the long turn. Lockett’s conventional ADP is useless because of the return points and the IDP floodgates could open at any time. I am sure that Wagner and at least two of the TEs will go. Ultimately, I felt that a WR3 splurge was worth the value. WR4 is a starting spot for half the season, so I won’t feel restricted from pursuing future value at the position by this pick.
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| 9 | twilson
ID: 138241911
Wed, Sep 19, 2018, 18:39
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6.12 Cam Newton QB, CAR
Only two IDPs taken through 81 picks! I’m not saying it’s unreasonable looking at most of the recent selections, but it still surprises me. As does Burkhead being the third Patriots back off the board. He would have been a very strong consideration right here. The only name I mentioned in my lengthy 4/5 rationales still on the board is Tarik Cohen. We’re close to his conventional ADP at this point despite his substantial returner boost. He was the RB#17 last year (RB#24 in ppg), has the potential for a larger role in 2018, and we’re already 33 RBs deep into the player pool. His new head coach could just not be interested in using him, which is suggested by his lack of usage in the preseason. That happened last year too, though, and Cohen got the work once the games started to matter.
Dion Lewis is another RB option. He’s the pass-catching half of a committee in Tennessee, which tends to be the better side to own. Derrick Henry is unlikely to give way completely, but Lewis is talented enough to defend his turf. It wouldn’t be the most exciting pick from an upside perspective barring injury, but Lewis should prove a reliable RB3.
I also like Peyton Barber. People have finally started to realize he’s the starting RB for Tampa, which has been clear for weeks. Ronald Jones has done nothing in preseason to earn even backup work. I think Barber has a very real chance to hold the job all year long. And yet, his ADP is so low that he may even make it to the 8/9 turn.
After Olsen went, I lost interest in TE for the moment. WR is off the board for roster reasons. Joey Bosa is hurt and has never exceeded 8.5 ppg; I don’t understand why he’s going this early. Though DL has the lowest replacement level of any position, a top 100 draft pick should still be a good bet to approach 10 ppg. After Wagner, it’s a slight drop to the rest of the LBs. Kuechly is the consensus next man up, but his concussion problems and Telvin Smith’s TFL prowess drop him behind the Jaguar.
Finally, I was planning to wait until extremely late for a QB this year, but I am forced to consider Cam Newton after he has dropped so far past his ADP. If I commit a high pick to the quarterback position, I require both a high floor and ceiling. Newton certainly qualifies on both fronts. He has more seasons above 23 ppg than below 17 ppg. The return of Olsen and improvement of Funchess and McCaffrey give Newton the best skill position complements he’s had in a while, and he’s healthier than in 2017.
It’s hard to pull the trigger on a QB in the early 6th given how much value is almost guaranteed to be present rounds from now. I don’t need an RB3 until week 13, but I’ll never scoff at appropriately priced RB depth. Telvin Smith would be an excellent anchor for my defensive core that I’ve never had the pleasure of owning before. All three positions are ones I can address later on in the draft/year, so I’m free to choose the player or strategy I’m most enamored with.
Newton and Smith are my preferred two picks for the 6/7 turn. But who should I take first? Neither Holt nor Tree has a QB or LB yet, so that doesn’t narrow it down. Newton is an obvious ADP outlier. Smith has gone after Kuechly across the board, but I can easily envision Holt doubling up. If I like Smith more than Newton, it’s not by enough to take the riskier path to getting both, which makes Newton the pick.
7.03 Luke Kuechly LB, CAR
Holt displayed his taste by grabbing Telvin Smith on the turn and doubling up with Mosley as I thought he might. Tree took a QB in Garoppolo, so I may or may not have snuck Newton through instead. No Smith forces me to evaluate Kuechly/alternative LB vs. Cohen/Barber/Lewis.
Kuechly may be the consensus LB#2, but I have my doubts about that. He last played the full 16 games in 2014 and has multiple multi-week concussions in his past. That puts him at a meaningfully higher risk of another such absence, and I hate when I have to carry injured IDPs. Also, he tends to be mildly overrated in RIFC because he is more tackle-heavy than most other top LBs. I really enjoy and appreciate the RIFC scoring system with its increased emphasis on TFL, as it better matches fantasy points to player quality than any other rubric I’ve experienced. If only the NFL bothered to standardize stadium scorer judgment of what exactly constitutes a TFL or QB hit, but that’s a complaint for another day. Don’t get me wrong on Kuechly—he’s still a 10+ ppg stud, but there are others in his range.
In particular, the duo of Lavonte David and Kwon Alexander in Tampa Bay are big play talents that match Kuechly’s ability to take roost in the double digits. David used to be far superior to Kuechly until Alexander joined him and tamped down his upside. Now he falls a little short on a per game basis, but has fewer injury concerns. Alexander has a PED suspension already on his record, but talent and youth are on his side. The list of active LBs with 11+ ppg seasons is a short one, and he’s on it. [If you’re curious, there are 7: Wagner, Kuechly (x2), David (x3), Alexander, Von Miller, and undrafted.]
I already discussed the RBs in my 6.12 rationale. One more name I considered is Reshad Jones, who entered the 11+ Club himself in 2015 and has stuck as a stud ever since. [Landon Collins came within half a point of joining him the year after, but Patrick Peterson back in 2011 is the only other active DB who has done it. He’s still undrafted, but as he hasn’t been fantasy relevant since he stopped returning punts years ago, I feel comfortable violating the standard.] Jones is worthy of a pick here, but I’m making myself be a little more disciplined this year with respect to IDPs. It’s too easy to find reasonably productive DBs on the waiver wire to pick one when similar talents are also on the table.
This wasn’t one of my favorite picks, but I chose to strengthen my starting lineup rather than invest in RB depth. Also, I think that a heavy LB run is about to begin in earnest. I went with the consensus guy in Kuechly rather than his contemporary David.
8.12 Reshad Jones DB, MIA
Round 8 contained a lot of really good picks. I strongly prefer these players to the ones drafted in round 7, Gostkowski and Wentz excepted, and I think they are comparable to half of rounds 5 and 6. Even my pick is going to be one of the many people I considered at 7.03. Also, I am shocked that only 2 of the 22 picks were IDPs, and not a single linebacker in sight. That makes us a huge outlier this year, and possible historically. I’ll check my historical sheets if anyone is interested to know if that is true, just let me know.
So who survived? Looks like Barber, Cohen, David, Alexander and Jones. I continue to like all four, but I can’t do my LB2 this early. That leaves the two RBs and the DB. Reshad Jones is a bona fide stud, and his situation is just as strong as last year, which is why I definitely like him more than Landon Collins this year. His scheme hasn’t changed, and Miami’s LBs haven’t improved. That should leave plenty of tackles for him to vacuum up. I mentioned Cohen for the first time all the way back in my 4th round rationale more than 50 picks ago. His value becomes more and more glaringly obvious with every passing pick. The same is true for Barber, as RBs projected to get as many snaps as him do not grow on trees. Is he really that different than Marshawn Lynch, Jamaal Williams, and Derrick Henry?
There’s also one new name to add to the list of consideration. Jordan Reed is coming at a 3 round discount to last year even though he is currently healthy. Some drop is appropriate given his repeated soft tissue and foot injuries, but it’s reasonable to project him as a top 3 or 4 TE while he is at full strength. He’s gaining a quarterback that emphasizes TEs and has a cheap handcuff that should be a low end TE1 when Reed is out. I like a couple more tight ends after Reed, but that type of ceiling disappears after he gets drafted.
I stuck with the same thinking that I did for 7.03—starting lineup over RB bench. It’s not a choice I’m going to be able to make for much longer. It also helps that Tree has 3 RBs, so I doubt that both RBs will be taken over the short turn to 9.03. After that, it was between Reed and Jones. TE makes more sense from a roster construction standpoint, but I allowed myself to make the luxury pick of Reshad Jones. I just really like him as a player and haven’t ever had the pleasure of owning him in RIFC.
9.03 Jamison Crowder WR, WAS
It seems that Holt agrees with me about Jordan Reed’s appeal, so this pick will finally be about depth. There’s not enough separation amongst the DL options for me to go in that direction while quality offensive options are available. Cohen and Barber are the RBs, though I also like Bilal Powell after them.
My WR ranks were decimated by all the 8th round action, but one name slipped through the cracks. Like Reed, Jamison Crowder has a 3 round discount from 2017. Unlike Reed, his drop is primarily for performance reasons. His TDs dropped from 8 to 3 and his punt return yardage was halved despite a similar number of attempts. The volume was all still there, including in the red zone and at the goal line, so I expect the TDs to jump back up while the PR yardage has a mild rebound. I think his possession-style game will be a good match for the tendencies of Alex Smith.
There are more contributor-quality WRs left worth owning than RBs, but the talent pool isn’t quite as deep as I thought before the draft started. Ideally, I’ll own 3 useable RBs and 5-6 WRs. I was quite torn on this decision, but sided with the player who is most likely to start for me during the season. Once the bye weeks start, I can sub Crowder in for any of the five RB/WRs I’ve drafted thus far, while Cohen and Barber can only slot in for two.
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| 10 | twilson
ID: 138241911
Thu, Sep 20, 2018, 15:24
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10.12 Chandler Jones DE, ARI
It’s amazing to me that there are still almost as many RBs being drafted as IDPs of any type. It means that I have abandoned my hope for a solid RB3; even the Washington pair that I was eyeing as backups if I missed on Barber, Cohen, and Powell went. On the flip side, there are IDP studs still available in the double digit rounds.
I’m also still without a TE. After passing/missing on Reed at the last pair, I had penciled in David Njoku for this pick. He’s a first round pick who looks like he’ll be on the field almost all the time after only getting half the snaps as a rookie. With him gone now too, I’m looking at filling the slot from the leftovers. I didn’t want to end up in this position, but I do have some late round sleepers to target if need be. For now, my preferred names are Kittle and Eifert, but I’m the last team left without a TE. There’s no need to force it if there are other positions I want instead.
Okay, so those IDPs. I’m obviously not going to take my DB2, but DL and LB are both on the table. In terms of roster construction, DL1 is a much higher priority than LB2. The player pool at DL dies at a certain point, and it’s much harder to find productive in-season DL replacements than LB or especially DB. My pre-draft DL plan was to wait until a few had been taken, then grab my DL1, and follow 2-4 rounds later with Myles Garrett as my DL2. Chandler Jones was my tentative target as that DL1 due to his positional switch from LB which might allow him to slip through the cracks a bit. That seems to have happened here, though it’s really more about the general draft IDP avoidance than anything else. Had he been classified as a lineman last year, he would’ve been the DL#1 by almost a full point. His TFL numbers exploded from 15 to 27 with the switch to Arizona. I’m expecting something a lot closer to 15 for 2018, but that would still make him an 8 ppg player. That, and a chance at upside, is all I’m asking from a late 10th round pick.
I was close to taking Lavonte David all the way back at 7.03. 50 picks later, he’s still on the board. He and Jones are my clear top two right now. Time for another round of “Who might survive the turn?” starring Tree and Holt. Tree has 1 LB/0 DL, while Holt is at 2 LB/ 0 DL. Both players are major droppers by RIFC ADP. That means I’ve got a real shot at slipping David through the turn, making Jones the pick.
11.03 Lavonte David LB, TB
Wow, I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a DL/DL/DL/DL/DL run before! That was fun, especially since I got in near the start of it. I didn’t enjoy seeing Garrett go to Holt, but I wasn’t willing to pay this price anyway. David made it back around because Tree preferred Zach Brown to him. I understand that, even if I disagree. He was a big ADP dropper too.
12.12 George Kittle TE, SF
Looks like everybody decided to switch over to the defensive side all at once! 23 IDPs in a 28 pick span is a run for the ages. It made sense, but that means it’s time for me to swap back to offense. RB and WR aren’t that exciting right now, so I’ll lock in my starting tight end. As I mentioned in my 10.12 rationale, Kittle and Eifert are the two guys I’m considering.
George Kittle had a surprisingly good rookie year in 2017. He managed to break 500 yards even though he was a 5th rounder. Though it may not sound like much, very few rookie TEs break that threshold. He ended the season on a high note, though his target volume didn’t really spike. Hopefully it is evidence of a bond with Garoppolo. I’m not sold that the upside scenario will play out, but it’s certainly a possibility. He’s dealing with an injury but is projected to return for week 1.
Tyler Eifert has been a touchdown machine when healthy. Unfortunately, that hasn’t happened in over a year. He has chronic back problems that have required multiple surgeries, not to mention his ankle, head, and neck injuries. There’s talk of keeping him on a play count this year in an effort to keep him upright and productive for as long as possible. As long as he gets all of the red zone snaps, that would be okay with me. It might be the case that Eifert’s body has nothing left to give, but the price to find out is pretty cheap at this point.
I believe in Kittle’s story more than Eifert, so he’s the pick. Eifert just isn’t someone you can draft as a starter.
13.03 Adoree Jackson DB, TEN
The turn didn’t affect me much. I still can’t find an RB3 worth drafting at cost, but WR deserves at least a cursory glance. Kelvin Benjamin is the biggest ADP dropper. He should have a strong share of the Buffalo targets, but is there really enough upside that I can see myself starting him regularly over one of the four WRs I already own? Christian Kirk may or may not be the second receiver in Arizona, and he returns punts.
I could double up at TE and take Eifert, or I can get a solid backup QB. I like Jared Goff, and he’s an ADP dropper to boot. But how often would I really be starting him over Cam Newton? If I don’t go backup QB now, I am okay with 4-5 others as pure backup plays later on.
It feels silly to be considering a DB2, but why is Adoree Jackson still undrafted? He is a starting cornerback that returns both punts and kicks. Last year, Tennessee even gave him 5 carries and a target on offense! I’m guessing that the new regime will skip that last bit. They’ve also been trying all through camp to find someone else to win one of the return jobs from Jackson, but that effort seems to have failed. In the past, drafting 2 stud DBs would prevent me from pursuing the many promising options that pop up during the season, but I found last year that the top safety free agents are often more interesting than the linebackers. I can easily see myself starting 3 DBs in many weeks. With that said, I’m not going to draft more than 2.
I’m not feeling the WRs, and Eifert is more speculation than anything else. Which is more valuable to me: good backup QB or proven stud DB? I think the phrase “proven stud” is answer enough.
14.12 Tyler Eifert TE, CIN
Nothing too exciting in the past 22 picks. Goff, Benjamin, and a handful of DL mostly. Note that starting yesterday, I’ve been in Canada with limited internet and will remain so through Labor Day. This will increase my use of queues when I know who I probably will want. Eifert was a clear option last turn and I’d like to take two bites at the TE apple given my weak #1.
15.03 Christian Kirk WR, ARI
I’m having a little trouble remembering who else I had in the queue for this pick. I briefly discussed Kirk in my 13.03 rationale. He’s a 2nd round rookie who returns punts and has the best shot at being the third option in Arizona behind David Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald. That’s the kind of profile that has occasionally delivered a WR1 season out of nowhere. Randall Cobb and Tyler Lockett, anyone? The odds are low, but high uncertainty is a feature in the 15th round.
I think Bortles was the backup choice. With more time I would’ve searched for a DL2 worth picking, but I had to go with a name already in my general queue so that I could get on with my vacation.
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| 11 | twilson
ID: 138241911
Thu, Sep 20, 2018, 15:25
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16.12 Ezekiel Ansah DE, DET
I had time overnight to check out DLs and Ansah clearly stood out. Multiyear DL1 track record and healthy entering the year. He’s not exciting, but I’m drafting him as DL#20. If I hadn’t gotten Ansah, I likely would’ve punted DL2 and played matchups unless I managed to hit on a breakout.
17.03 Jameis Winston QB, TB
We’re firmly in RB lottery ticket territory now. I’ve looked to figure out if any of them are worth a priority selection; usually I just stock up elsewhere while everybody else takes their shots and then come in to clean up afterwards. I like Holt’s pick of Wilkins on the turn. Gore, Ware, and Breida are three others I’ve considered, but none have grabbed me enough to deviate from my norm. I’m going to do the same at WR for now before I slide in for my 6th and final there. I’m all set at IDP until the very end. That leaves backup QB. Winston is a known quantity at this point. He’ll put up 15-17 ppg once he’s back from suspension. He’s a backup, so the early suspension has limited impact. His receiving corps is as strong as it’s ever been. I would’ve been okay with Andy Dalton or Tyrod Taylor, but I have to pick someone.
18.12 James Conner RB, PIT
It’s too bad I didn’t take Breida last time around given the subsequent breaking news of the McKinnon ACL tear. I’m also sad that I missed out on Chris Godwin, who I was intending to draft as a bit of a handcuff to Mike Evans. But seeing James Conner go in the 16th in the big league made me frightened that I wouldn’t get the handcuff that really matters for my roster. Even if I didn’t own Bell, Conner is the #1 handcuff to own. The Steelers love their bellcow RBs more than any other team in the league. If Bell gets hurt or continues his holdout into the season, Conner is an instant mid RB1. No other player was considered.
19.03 John Brown WR, BAL
Lost out on Ware on the short turn, which leaves only Gore left from my RB shortlist. Reading a little bit more has made me slightly doubt my prior conclusions, so my interest is a little lower than it had been. Otherwise, I like John Brown and Paul Richardson at WR. Brown has been lighting up the preseason on his new team. Before sickle cell anemia played havoc with his health, Brown put up a 1,000 yard season. If he’s found a way to manage the disease, he’s in a position where that could happen again. Richardson is also in a new city, and his role is likely to expand. He has a chance to be the primary outside threat in the Washington passing offense, and experts I trust have him ranked relatively high.
As much as I could use a “break glass in case of emergency” RB3 for the first 3 weeks, I’d rather prioritize a potential starter talent where one exists. I think John Brown qualifies, so he’s the pick.
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| 12 | twilson
ID: 138241911
Thu, Sep 20, 2018, 15:26
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20.12 Rod Smith RB, DAL
I’ve waited long enough; it’s time to choose my lottery tickets. I don’t see any good backups behind bad starters to speculate on, so I’ll just go with clear backups to the elites. There’s a lack of clarity for the Rams behind Gurley, so that leaves Rod Smith in Dallas and Chase Edmonds in Arizona. Despite the recent injuries, the Cowboys still have a better offensive line than the Cardinals, so Smith is my preference of the two.
21.03 Chase Edmonds RB, ARI
I’ve got room for one more lottery ticket and plenty of need to hit it big, so Edmonds joins my team too. He’s had a good preseason cementing the backup job.
22.12 D’Onta Foreman RB, HOU
Everybody always seems to forget about the IR slot that got added to RIFC a few years ago. I like to use a late pick on a player to stash there. In all situations but this, Foreman is on my Do Not Draft list. No NFL RB has ever returned from an Achilles tear to great success. But Foreman is young and behind a weak starter that he already usurped once. Medical advances are always happening, and other positions have seen success stories, so why not take a shot on Foreman when it costs me nothing? I can always drop him if I need the IR slot for a more important player. I was planning to do this in the 24th round, but I just didn’t see anybody that differed much from what will be in the FA pool after the draft ends.
23.03 Boston Scott RB, NO
I did want to draft an RB3 that I would actually feel decent about starting if Lynch gets hurt early. Boston Scott is seemingly the #2 RB in New Orleans during Ingram’s suspension, and he does returns to add some guaranteed volume. Nothing exciting, but he has some short-term upside. I also considered the veteran [undrafted] who has a similar profile.
24.12 Daniel Carlson K, MIN
I had Ka’imi Fairbairn teed up to go here but Chucktaylors sniped him right in front of me. Daniel Carlson seems like a decent fallback for the moment. He was drafted in the 5th round by the Vikings and has a decent week 1 matchup at home against the 49ers. Minnesota should have a good offense this year. I will probably play matchups at K until I hit on a strong option.
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