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Subject: Survivor Week 14
Posted by: Shak
- [481029813] Tue, Dec 07, 2004, 14:19
I still can't get over the rags-to-riches story of GCobb. He was kicked out in week 2 and had the lowest scoring team (total points) from week 2-11, with the exception of week 4. In week 12 he scored 129 and then he went off for 175 this past week. He may hit 200 this week -- especially if Bell steals more carries from Droughns.
On to the fab five survivors. In order of total points:
SuperClyde -- Has enough balance to survive the occasional lemon that Vick produces. Key games this week:
Vick and Dunn (is that country group?) vs. Oakland (great)
Alexander at Minn (great)
Muhammad vs SL (great)
Maybe SC will get 200 points this week with all the super matchups he has.
BigEd - On a roll!
Culpepper vs. Seattle (great)
Westbrook at Washington (poor)
Horn at Dallas (average)
Has enough balance and fire power to get a pass for this week.
SSS - Solid #3 in a little trouble.
T. Green at Tenn (good, MNF)
Martin at Pittsburgh (very poor)
J. Smith vs. Chicago (good)
His survivor life will probably come down to Monday night with Trent Green. Having his only RB going to Pitt makes life tough.
Shak - Only Chicago Bears have weaker WRs.
Pennington and Moss at Pitt (very poor)
Carr and DD vs. Indy (great)
Dillon vs. Cinci (great, if healthy)
Will have to rely on RBs to carry the day. Really needs a super outing from Dillon to move on.
C5 - Ranked 14 out 18, but has super PK duo.
Plummer vs. Miami (average)
Palmer at NE (very poor)
Barlow at Ariz (poor because SF sucks so bad)
Mason vs. KC (great, MNF)
Nothing really stands out on this team other than the PKs. I don't see how his survivor life won't come down to the Monday night game. Really needs a good outing from Plummer and Mason.
The heart says anyone but me (PLEASE). The head says C5 and SSS will battle it out on MNF. The gut says C5 is history. |
| 1 | RBP @ Work
ID: 39228222
Tue, Dec 07, 2004, 17:17
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Still in shock that I got beat down last week. Shocked!
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| 2 | Ednecks
ID: 26819197
Tue, Dec 07, 2004, 17:19
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I looked at the the matchups for all the teams and there is no clear cut favorite or someone that is assured of a bad week. So that means, It's a crap shoot this week.
You can say that C5 is the underdog, but I sure didn't think that Housemanzadeh would be the player to beat me up in one of my leagues. I think QB points are important this week and from now on...I think if Plummer and Palmer don't score above 15 points then C5 will struggle.
I like my top five scorers against anyone at the momment, Culpepper,Westbrook, Horn, Crumpler and Coles normally will get me around 75-80 points on their own. SC has a very nice top five players with Vick, Alexander, Bruce, Muhammad, Chambers and Viniateri.
I do think Shak stays alive as long as Dillon and Davis are scoring, having Pennington back is a big deal because you can't count on Carr.
SSS, I've alwyas said I like his chances, getting Heap back helps and you do have to love Cmart and Trent as your studs, He has quality WR's but they are not consistent scorers.
Lots of if's and's and but's for this week. I'll go out on a limb and say if Dillon doesn't play Shak loses. I do think SC is safe and me and the other three will score around 75-100 points.
Hell I don't know nothing!!!!!
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| 4 | Shak
ID: 481029813
Tue, Dec 07, 2004, 18:24
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You looked at the matchups and you don't think there is a clear cut favorite? Are you on some strong prescription medication? How can you not like Mike's matchups this week? You really don't think that you and Mike are the favorites? A crap shoot? Wow!
I also think SSS is looking good with Trent and CMart, but you don't think he should be worried about CMart at the Steelers? If CMart doesn't score big, he is looking at Trent, Heap, and a few inconsistent WRs. I'd be surprised if he has more than 30 points going into the Monday night game.
You don't agree that C5 is the underdog at this point? He is ranked 14 out of 18 and only has Barlow at RB. His QBs have to play Miami and NE. That doesn't sound like big points. He has to be considered a big underdog.
I wish it were a crap shoot and we were all equal, but I don't see it that way. BTW if Dillon plays, who do you think goes?
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| 5 | Ednecks
ID: 26819197
Tue, Dec 07, 2004, 20:12
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I understand what your saying, but this is the only week that someone wasn't without a QB or a number of studs. Sure C5 and SSS are underdogs compared to SC, but I'm a RB and WR from being very average and your two RB's from definetly going home.
If Taylor can get 115 all purpose yards on Pitt, then Cmart can too...will he struggle, most likely. I'm just saying it's a little more up in the air this week compared too previous weeks.
If Dillon plays I think it's still between you and C5 with you having a slight advantage.
I've said in the past each team's goal is to get three players with 20+ points and they should be safe. We can't predict how games will proceed, we can go by past results and that's a good indicator, but I didn't think Baltimore or Buffalo would give up that many points or yards last week.
I'm always on the Meds, but yeah I don't see Vick as a guy you can depend on and I do think SC well score well this week with Alexander and Mush, but the other's are avg. How did we lose STB who was clearly the favorite team to win it all.
Bottomline is I see Me and SC a little in front of the other three teams, but I don't it as insurmountable for you, SC or C5 to score enough to make it very interesting.
Sorry if that contradicts you...just the way I see it..
I have been wrong in the past once or twice. I will stick with if Dillon doesn't play, you can go hold the money with Scotty cuz both you boys won't see a dime!!!
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| 6 | Superclydes
ID: 24721137
Wed, Dec 08, 2004, 02:10
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I am going to have to agree with (gulp) Ed on this one. My perspective has changes towards how I perceive each team has to do.
In the beginning weeks, there was always a team out there that just didn't have a good draft or was unlucky with injuries.
That should have lasted for the first five weeks. Then next to leave the rock were people who had serious injuries to key players on their team or had a QB benched or something like that. If I were to guess, I would have to say that that should have lasted until week 10 or so.
The rest of the way should have been the lucky ones drafting the right backups or were not hit hard by injury.
I was really expecting to have around 6-8 teams that were scoring good on a weekly basis. I must admit that I am looking at the matchups, but don't hold my breath on those. All it takes is one or two of the key scorers on any team and they are swimming. I know I am stating the blatently obvious, but you have to look at it from that perspective from now on. You can't just say "Someone will have a worse game than me." anymore. An average team will get you to the final 6-8 teams, but now you have to have the teams with the above average players step up.
Matchups are important to gage how you team might perform, but it is all one big turkey shoot. No longer are we left with having one player sit out one game and getting by. We all didn't make it this far by a stroke of luck, well we really did, but it is more of a whole team concept now. If one of your players underperforms, you better have a backup that is stepping up.
I can honestly see in the coming weeks seeing scores of 85+ taking a walk. In the first couple of weeks 85 put you as a prodigy of FF!!
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| 7 | Ednecks
ID: 26819197
Wed, Dec 08, 2004, 11:21
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Shak you stated the Pros and Cons very well and they may well come true. I believe we have all been lucky at least one week during this run and who's turn is it this week.
I don't want to leave this week and I think with our teams looking just a little better then the rest, Me and SC are being cauious about how we slang off the competition.
Plus he agreed with me and I can't have that!!!
SC 14th off the Rock!!!
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| 8 | Shak, Prognosticator
ID: 481029813
Wed, Dec 08, 2004, 11:30
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Just because I like a good debate, I'm going to kick this horse a little longer. I disagree that this is the first week that "someone wasn't without a QB or a number of studs." I think week 11 was incredible. There were four teams within four points of getting the boot. It took several recounts before we really knew who was gone. Each team had a decent QB and several studs. LHC was still very strong then with Garcia, Rudi, Holt, Burress, and Burleson (Moss was still hurt). In looking back, I don't really think there was a clear underdog that week. Was it a surprise that Tim was booted? Absolutely! Could such an upset happen again? Sure. But does that mean all teams are equal? Not a chance! This week much more than week 11, there are favorites and there are underdogs. It's the haves and the have nots. It would be a huge upset if you or Scott got the boot. HUGE!
Certainly, if I lose my best player I'm history. I don't have the depth to take that hit. That's not going out on a limb -- that's a no-brainer.
I don't believe anyone that scores 85 is in danger this week. I really believe the losing score will be below 70. Certainly, if I don't have Dillon I have little chance of getting to 60. If CMart fails to score double digits at Pittsburgh, I don't see how SSS scores 70. I don't expect C5 to score 70. That's my prediction and I'm sticking to it.
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| 9 | Shak, Stat Boy
ID: 481029813
Wed, Dec 08, 2004, 11:44
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BTW, Fred Taylor had 76 yards on 27 carries! That's less than 3 yards a carry. That was also in Jacksonville. He totaled 12.5 points. I think CMart will be lucky to get that. Pitt leads the league in least rushing yards allowed and rushing TDs allowed. They have shut down Jamal Lewis, Corey Dillon, Bryan Westbrook and just about every other RB they've faced. Only Rudi rushed for a 100, but then he was completely shut down in the rematch. I think confidence is not high that CMart will have 100 total yards. Just my guess.
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| 10 | Superclydes
ID: 63402814
Wed, Dec 08, 2004, 13:42
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Very well researched Jim. I am not saying 85 for this week, but after this week I could see it. CMart will have a tough time. Their defense has been doing it for them all season. Last week was their only disappointing week, but still pulled off the win.
What I was trying to get at was that in week 11, their scores were in the mid 60's. I was just thinking that by that time, the lower scoring teams would have been weeded out. Now in fairness, it isn't easy to draft a team without any transactions and score consistantly with 18 teams involved. They were just unlucky. Still thought the scores would have been higher. I can't remember what the score was that left last week, but four teams were above that 85 point mark I believe. I was just saying the average/lucky teams are departing and the consistant higher scoring teams are left. Anyone can have a bad week.
Ed, what I was trying to explain is that if the vote goes for division games, they will count towards the tiebreakers, if random is selected, the division record stay as they are right now and the same tiebreaking system is used. You just better hope for a win either way and put it out of reach!!
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| 11 | Ednecks
ID: 26819197
Wed, Dec 08, 2004, 13:49
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I agree, I never said CMart would go large against Pitt. I said Taylor had over 100+ total yards, 76 rushing, 34 recieving with 5 Rcpts, you do get points for both Stat Boy!!!CMart could match those totals.
I do think that if you get to 80 points this week you are safe. If everything goes as planned then C5 loses with about 60+ points.
I'll beat the dog even further and say I've heard that BArlow might not play, so I would think that C5 is more of a favorite to go this week, He's been living off QB and K points for a while.
I've always said he was the favorite, just that he keeps getting enough to stay alive every week, what's different this week?
Upset city!!! Just a feeling Stat Boy!!!
Something strange is going to happen....I saw the White Buffalo again!!!!
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| 12 | Shak, Stat Boy
ID: 481029813
Wed, Dec 08, 2004, 14:27
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Looks like we had a bottleneck with our e-mail server at work -- and it just got unplugged. That's why you are just now receiving the week 13 prelim results e-mail.
Just for S&Gs, here's more stats. This is the losing score for each week:
1) Champs 59.5
2) GCobb 37
3) AJaye 29
4) JoeFut2 39
5) B2 48.5
6) JDB 24.5
7) CPS 45.5
8) JHHH 15
9) RBP 30
10) Corky 53
11) STB 61.5
12) Dawgs 44.5
13) LHC 62
We've come a long way, haven't we? Average low score is 42.2.
Big Ed, of course I realize RBs get points for receptions -- I've screwed up the stat sheet enough to know that. However, I'd be willing to wager next years entry fee that CMart does not get 12.5 points this week. Considering he got 32 last week, I would think that's a bet you can't refuse.
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| 13 | Ednecks
ID: 26819197
Wed, Dec 08, 2004, 14:41
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Mike the only people who really cared about it either being a random game or a Division game is Me, Dragons and LR. If I was LR I would ask the guys who it doesn't matter too one or the other to get them to vote for it being a Division game.
You know it's not fair, If you were in the same boat, you'd be complaining. Don't tell me to just win and then you have no worries, that just makes me want to come across the water and slap some sense into your rockhard head. I'll leave it alone, only because I said I would.................ARGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGG!!!
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| 14 | Ednecks
ID: 26819197
Wed, Dec 08, 2004, 14:43
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Sorry Fellows, That is a argument me and mike are having in another league.
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| 15 | Ednecks
ID: 26819197
Wed, Dec 08, 2004, 14:50
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If the entry fee is still $20 then you got a bet.
Fifty bucks is a little high for me to trust CMart against a very good Pitt Def.
I think the stat line will read something like 65 rushing, 25 recieving with 3 RCPT and 1 TD for a total of 15.5
I hope....
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| 16 | Ednecks
ID: 26819197
Wed, Dec 08, 2004, 14:51
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Not sure If he's on the injury list yet, but If he's questionable or higher then the deal is off.
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| 17 | Shak, Stat Boy
ID: 481029813
Wed, Dec 08, 2004, 15:34
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Ok, you got it -- for the entry fee or $20 towards the entry fee if it is raised.
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| 18 | Shak, Stat Boy
ID: 481029813
Wed, Dec 08, 2004, 17:30
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Looks like you were right -- Barlow is out.
49ers' running back Kevan Barlow has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Cardinals, according to the team's official website. He suffered a concussion during the week 13 loss to the Rams and will not be ready to play by Sunday. Backup running back Maurice Hicks will start in place of Barlow this week.
As they say in Korea -- C5 is in deep Kim Chi!
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| 19 | Ednecks
ID: 26819197
Wed, Dec 08, 2004, 20:08
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It sure is looking that way. No RB's and QB's have tough matchups. I guess we have a clearcut favorite and we are back to feeling a little safer.
My dad's friend is married to a Korean and that Kim Chi do stink!!!!
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| 20 | Superclydes
ID: 24721137
Thu, Dec 09, 2004, 03:28
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No I wouldn't be complaining. That was what was set up at the beginning of the year. I only intended on this being a pickup game of our baseball owners. Hence, I didn't write a constitution. Most of us played in the league last year and we had less complaints about a 100x's worse schedule!
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| 21 | Superclydes
ID: 24721137
Mon, Dec 13, 2004, 04:10
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Uh, oh. I maybe out of contention this week. I don't think I did that well, but hopefully I squeak through. I would like to kill Duckett!! Talk about stealing thunder. If I do miss it this week, I will have bombed in all of my leagues. This is the only one I stand a chance in. Unless Mason can get me 35+ !!!
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| 22 | Ednecks
ID: 26819197
Mon, Dec 13, 2004, 10:04
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I'm not sure who scored what this week. I'm close too 100 points again this week. I think it has to be C5 I think he needs major points from Mason.
A SC lose this week would have been nice.
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| 23 | Ednecks
ID: 26819197
Mon, Dec 13, 2004, 12:08
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This is roughly what I have totaled for the remaining 5 teams
Ednecks 98.5 (all done)
SSS 91.5 (T. Green)
SC 81.5 (all Done)
Shak 80.0 (all Done)
C5 45.0 (Mason)
C5 looks done as expected. Next week should be a crazy week and who the favorite is I dont have a clue. I do think you better score 80+.
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| 24 | Shak, Stat Boy
ID: 481029813
Mon, Dec 13, 2004, 12:13
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Sorry about the delay. I'm working on the results now. I did notice that CMart had only 11.5 points this week. I do believe that means I win that sidebet.
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| 25 | Ednecks
ID: 26819197
Mon, Dec 13, 2004, 12:31
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Stat Boy didn't I mention the modified Stableford scoring system for that bet? All receptions were worth one point. He He
Yeah it was close I just didn't get my TD. I did have the results right with 72 rushing and 35 Rect yards...Let me know how and when you want it paid. I know me and Scotty usually get somekind of NFL playoff game going for twenty bucks like last year...just let me know..you Lucky !"£$%^&.
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| 26 | Shak, Stat Boy
ID: 481029813
Mon, Dec 13, 2004, 12:35
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Another bit of bad news for you -- SSS has 102 with Green going tonight. If C5 does exit tonight, I think I'm clearly the 98 pound weakling from here on out.
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| 27 | Shak, Stat Boy
ID: 481029813
Mon, Dec 13, 2004, 12:43
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My stats are pretty similar to Ed's. Only change was to SSS and my scores.
SSS 102 (T. Green)
Ednecks 98.5 (all done)
SC 82 (all Done)
Shak 77 (all Done)
C5 45.0 (Mason)
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