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Subject: Survivor week # 15
Posted by: Ednecks
- [26819197] Tue, Dec 14, 2004, 15:53
Well folks it's down to the nitty gritty as they say. Four teams left after the expected departure of C5. Are these the four best teams after the draft was conducted, I don't think any of the four were considered in the top five except maybe SuperClyde. I think getting rid of STB, Corky, Scotty and JDB were critical in the rest of use hanging around at this point in the contest.
I'll give my opinions on what I think each teams chances are and they may differ from other's as we have already seen and heard from last week. In the End we both had some things correct and SC ruling the week was way wrong.
In order of Total points
Superclyde-- I think the Clyde may struggle to get enough points this week, I don't like his matchups and the only bonus is that Dunn is the only healthy back left in Atlanta. He's on the edge and may just do enough with points from Vintiateri on Monday night?
SuperClyde
Vick -vs- Car (Poor to Avg)
Alexander -vs- NYJ (Poor)
Muhammad -vs- ATL (Avg)
Bruce -vs- Ari (Avg) with Chandler at QB.
SC chances take a hit this week and He will live or die with what comes out of the ATL -vs- Carolina game.
Ednecks
Culpepper -vs- Det (Great)
Westbrook -vs- Dallas (Good)
Horn -vs- TB (Avg)
Coles -vs- SF (Good)
Ednecks were very well balanced and losing Duckett points after last week may hurt him in the long run, no Kicker hasn't hurt yet, but will it before the end? He will scrap by this week with Culpepper points.
SSS
T. Green -vs- Den (Avg)
TMart -vs- Seattle (Good to Great)
J. Smith -vs- GB (Good)
Heap -vs- Indy (Great)
I've always said I liked his chances if he gets CMart points and I think he cruises into the final three with ease.
Shak
Pennington -vs- Sea (Avg to good)
Davis -vs- Chicago (Avg to good, with Urlachter hurt)
Dillon -vs- Miami (good)
S. Moss -vs- Seattle (Avg, depends on that one deep pass he gets?)
Shak will go as far as Davis and Dillon take him, they score in the twenties and he's probably alright, going to be close.
After what I've seen all year you can guess pretty close, but I think this week will be very close all around. I do think SSS is safe this week with SC, Ednecks and Shak fighting it out for the last place and a ticket off the rock.
If I had to predict one person to go this week it would be the Shak daddy, just because his WR's are so bad. I've been hurt with Green and Duckett probably getting benched and SC has many bad matchups, but he's got a strong squad from top to bottom and will get enough points this week.
I'll say it's between me and Stat Boy and what Dillon gets on Monday night.
Good Luck Fellows
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| 1 | RBP @ Work
ID: 39228222
Tue, Dec 14, 2004, 22:56
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Not to throw any bad Mojo Jimbo's way but I'm not sure how he made it this far? I think he goes bye bye this week or the next. Injuries are playing a huge role right now, Duckett goes down and Heap comes back, that's a big swing when things are thisclose (space between this and close omitted on purpose).
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| 2 | Ednecks
ID: 26819197
Wed, Dec 15, 2004, 11:07
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Your probably Scotty. Shak is the weaker team of the four, but Davis and Dillon are playing well at the moment and If he gets decent QB pts he has a chance at staying alive this week.
The Clyde has got to be the favorite and I think SSS with Heap back edges me out as the second favorite. I'll have to depend on Culpepper, Westbrook and Horn to keep me alive each week, with a little help from Coles and Crumpler. It was going to be difficult at this point of the contest no matter who was left....just happy to be alive
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| 3 | Shak, Sensitive One
ID: 481029813
Wed, Dec 15, 2004, 11:10
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Scotty, sounds like sour grapes. "Not sure how I made it this far?" That's a little harsh, isn't it? I think it's pretty obvious -- I made it this far on the back of my first two picks: Dillon and D. Davis.
I haven't been the favorite to go since week 3. I may not score a lot of points each week, but I score consistently -- and I believe that is the name of the game.
I still believe that drafting 18th put me at a big disadvantage, but I think I did a decent job. With picks 18 and 19, I had the choice of Dillon, Davis, Rudi, Faulk, and Owens. I was really torn on TO, but I think I picked the right two there. 35 picks later at 3.18, I knew I needed to pick up a QB because there would be a run on QBs before I picked 35 picks later, so I picked up Pennington. QBs selected in round 4 after Pennington were Gannon, Garcia, and Plummer. The one pick that I missed badly on the whole draft was the 55th pick (4.1), when I selected Santana Moss. That's the reason I don't have a realistic shot to win it all.
I understand that luck plays a big part in this game, but I think I have just as much right to be here as the other three teams. I may have the lowest total of the four, but I got here because I have scored consistently with my two RBs and two QBs. That's not a fluke.
Unfortunately, I am the weakest of the four and it does look like this is where I bow out. If I should make it any further, then you can then take potshots at me and call me a fluke, but until then I think you owe me my due!
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| 4 | Shak, On The Edge
ID: 481029813
Wed, Dec 15, 2004, 11:27
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Ed, here's my take on your take:
SC -- Vick has historically done very well vs. Carolina. I don't think that will change this week, especially at home. Losing Duckett increases Vick's value and makes his matchup good rather than poor to average. Also, I don't like Bruce this week at all. Chandler has been horrible and he locks on to Holt too much. Could he make a big adjustment this week? Possibly, but I'm not big on Bruce this week.
BigEd -- Losing Duckett will hurt some, but his points last week were an unexpected bonus. I think you are safe this week.
Actually, I agree with everything else. I just don't see how I can advance this week. Realistically, the most I can score this week is 70. I will probably come in at 55-60. That won't be nearly enough to continue. After this week, I think it will be a real crap shoot. Good luck to all.
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| 5 | Ednecks
ID: 26819197
Wed, Dec 15, 2004, 12:25
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I do agree Scotty was a little harsh. Shak's team was lucky/fortunate in the early weeks to get by, but he said he planned it that way. I've always thought his team was decent if he got any QB points out of Pennington and Carr. If things went as it should have only SC would probably still be alive with STB, Corky and RBP and possibly myself. Is Scotty pissed about losing his High game and getting kicked off the rock way too early, sure he is, but it's not like the Scotty I know to be bitter about someone's good fortune, unless you two have a Fantasy feud going?
I just like SC's and Statboys love for the game and I really enjoy thier comments each year. They are never far off the mark, but they both know who the master is!!!
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| 6 | Ednecks
ID: 26819197
Wed, Dec 15, 2004, 12:34
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On the Vick opinion. I understand he's done well against Carolina in the past, I just feel that game will be low scoring and not many fantasy yards for either team. One guy will go large out of that game and it will be either Vick or Muhammad and I just feel after winning the division so early the Falcons will not be as hungry as Carolina....just a guess. Dunn without Duckett has got to be better, but I still feel he wont be huge.
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| 7 | Shak
ID: 481029813
Wed, Dec 15, 2004, 13:43
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LOL, I bow down to the Master. First you spank us in BBM and now you are looking good here. How come you aren't in our contract league? I beat SC last week. I face STB this week and hope to face Scotty in the championship of that one. That is an outstanding league. If you are interested, I will put you on the list in case we lose anyone.
Scotty, you going to set up the playoff challenge again this year?
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| 8 | Ednecks
ID: 26819197
Wed, Dec 15, 2004, 13:52
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I play in a league that Mike put together and I played with Scotty and STB and most of the Mildenhall boys before. I won my division and made the playoffs. I'm interested If a slot comes availble...you might want to ask the other's I'm not everyones cup of tea....Loud and opininated..but I do love it.
I like playing with guys that have the Love, it makes it 10 times more fun and beating the best is what The Neck is all about!!!
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| 9 | RBP @ Work
ID: 39228222
Thu, Dec 16, 2004, 00:45
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You guys are crazy, I was just stirring the pot. Shak is the 3rd smartest guy I know behind Jon Hobdy and the "Neck".
Playoff leagues are a go. Ed won that one last year too. We usually do two different formats: Draft and hold and weekly redraft. $20 will get you into both formats ($10 each) and I'll probably only take people I know first so I don't get stiffed.
And yes I'd love to see Big Ed in our Dynasty turned Contract league. I think this is the 5th year of the league. We've had some good owners in that league and it has evolved (after almost disbanding) into a really nice format IMO. The Neck ruffled some feathers in the 2003 redraft league by calling it like it was, which was nice because I was getting screwed (Tradegate) and made to look like the bad guy and Big Ed was the only one to get my back. I still appreciate that.
For the record I'd gladly trade places with the "weakest" of the final four teams....
Even internet crap, get back to work!
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| 10 | Superclydes
ID: 24721137
Thu, Dec 16, 2004, 02:16
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I am glad Jim, you are down on yourself this week because I don't like my matchups. Atlanta has clinched, so I am not sure how much they will play their starters. Bruce is definitely not getting the looks he was with Bulger. My only bright spot is that Morris may seem more time this week. Muhammed isn't looking well either against the Atlanta D.
Yeah, Ed in the contract league would be good. But like he says, he takes some getting used to:o) I can always count on him for a comment or two about any given situation. Usually slamming me, of course.
I am hoping to just be able to squeak through this week. Last week I had tough matchups and still scraped together almost 90, so I am crossing my fingers for this week.
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| 11 | Ednecks
ID: 26819197
Thu, Dec 16, 2004, 10:29
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I know Scotty was playing, but I can't resist a fight, Scotty those were nice words and much appreicated, I rate you highly also...Damn it must be Christmas time!! Looking forward to the playoff contests, its a Drafting and strategy bonanza and the neck loves matching up against you boys who I consider the top Fantasy players around...I'll just whoop SC in this one and send his hopeful ass Home!!!
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| 12 | Shak
ID: 481029813
Thu, Dec 16, 2004, 13:14
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Just a reminder on how the weather can effect games this time of year:
"The forecast for Sunday is calling for a high of 15 degrees with snow and high winds in Green Bay. Last week the passing game suffered in winds gusting to 30 MPH. Be sure to check the weather reports as it gets closer to game time."
If the weather forecast holds true, would you consider sitting Favre, Walker, Leftwich, or Jimmy Smith if you'd ordinarily start them? I have Walker and Smith in one league and may have to sit both of them.
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| 13 | Ednecks
ID: 26819197
Thu, Dec 16, 2004, 14:57
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You never now exactly what you might get in bad weather games. I guess the wind is the big downer on the passing game. The Denver/Oak game played in the snow was a scoring machine. I would agree that it will bring the stats down most of the time. I have Green/Taylor and LT going in those cold weather games, but since they are RB's not much of a factor.
In Buffalo the wind always plays a part in there home games at this time of year.
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| 14 | Superclydes
ID: 63402814
Thu, Dec 16, 2004, 15:43
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Tough call. Walker has only had a few looks lately, so he is due. GB is fighting for the wildcard, so expect them to fight until the end. Favre has played there for almost 13 years, so unless the wind is ridiculous, I expect him to pass. Don't expect 50 yard bombs, but short screens. I would heavily favor the Pack if the temp stays the same. Those Florida boys only know what 15 degrees looks like in their freezer. I don't think I would sit Walker, but would consider benching Smith. What are your options?
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| 15 | Shak
ID: 481029813
Thu, Dec 16, 2004, 16:02
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In my A league, I have Reggie Wayne, Jimmy Smith, D Mason, and Joey Galloway. I have to start Wayne, but I'm torn between the other 3. Mason didn't look very good on MNF.
In the contract league I have Holt, Coles and Houshmandzadeh. Which two should I start?
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| 16 | Ednecks
ID: 26819197
Thu, Dec 16, 2004, 16:43
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Tough calls. I would start Wayne,and Mason normally, but Mason did look like he was in pain on Monday night. I'd gamble with Galloway against NO and hope he gets what he got last week? I know it's tough to bench Smith, but I think the cold weather will affect his old bones?
Contract League: Holt and Housh, you got to start him solely on the looks he's been getting, nobody hotter then him but D. Bennett. Still tough calls. I don't think you lose out either way with those three.
Not sure If that helps/
I have a Problem with QB's in my one league do I start HAssellbeck agains the Jets or Collins -vs- Tenn or Voleck in the same game. Not sure! I do have A. Green and LT and Horn. Do I start Porter, Bruce, or T. Jones in the flex position?
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| 17 | RBP @ Home
ID: 16124215
Sat, Dec 18, 2004, 04:44
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I have some neat tweaks to Survivor 2005. I have an idea where we have 2 groups of 8 teams from the start. The lowest scoring group by average either gets to vote off a team or the lowest scorer is eliminated. Not sure which would work better right now and not sure about a lot of things for that matter. Just taking it to the next level. The lowest scoring team on the winning side is safe and the highest scoring team each week would have immunity. Will discuss it later in the offseason but if you actually watch SURVIVOR on CBS it would be somewhat like that where the winning group is safe and the losers eat one of their own, certainly the lowest scoring team.
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| 18 | Superclydes
ID: 63402814
Sat, Dec 18, 2004, 06:15
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I absolutely love it. I am for the whole "conference" thing. It gives an avenue for teams to put the blame on someone other than their ass. I think we need to make the conference thing "random". I got ROYALLY screwed in the pain game league and Jim cheated his way to victory in the contract league. JUST KIDDING JIM. Honest mistake. You also need to change the bye laws in the contract league, tiebreakers read, division record before H2H. I was schooled by Buddy on how it should work.
I don't mean to offend anyone here, especially Ed his feelings are hurt easy, but I think we need to make this sort of a keeper league. We are all over the world and having to send money to strangers over the internet is lucky at best. I think that if the owners here are dedicated enough, we should make it like the contract league where there is a hold fee.
Speaking of fees, I would like to also propose this be instead of a "cheap promo" league, make it into something serious. But on the other hand, if I spent $50 and had a bad week 1, I would be majorly pissed. Keep it simple, but among friends.
Scotty, this has to be the best idea you ever came up with. I am more addicted to this than heroin, and that is quite impressive. Now if I can just convince the wife that fantasy sports don't rule my life, I would be fine. For those who don't know me, I am not "that" addicted to fantasy sports and have never done heroin, I just like to keep people on edge.
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| 19 | Ednecks
ID: 26819197
Sat, Dec 18, 2004, 10:24
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That's the deal Mike you never know If I'm really offended or not!! Am I a little tender, maybe.
I really dont like the idea of a losing score getting to vote off a studly team! Then I would have to draft a avg team like Mike does every year and the Edneck would have trouble doing that.
I do like the idea of divisions. Maybe we can have a losers bracket of some sort, sort of like in Softball? The whole deal is the draft and once we know the rules we can make a few plans.
I agree with Mike this is a lot of fun....Mike, you know you love having me around.....
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| 20 | Superclydes
ID: 63402814
Sat, Dec 18, 2004, 11:52
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Ed, I wouldn't have it any other way!! For those of you who don't know, I have only met Ed once in person at a football draft at a friend of mines house about four years ago. He does actually possess a huge knowledge of football prowess, no matter what he says here:o) He has his moments that he makes me think, but always comes around to sense.
What about the contract league? Buddy is just changing a rule, with a vote of course, but you can't change a rule of things that have been done.
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| 21 | Ednecks
ID: 26819197
Sun, Dec 19, 2004, 00:04
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Well fellows it doesn't look good for the Ednecks so far. The ATL/CAR game was nice for SC, so I'll need the rest to faulter somehow.
I'm scared!!!
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| 22 | RBP @ Home
ID: 16124215
Sun, Dec 19, 2004, 05:51
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"I really dont like the idea of a losing score getting to vote off a studly team! Then I would have to draft a avg team like Mike does every year and the Edneck would have trouble doing that"
Yes Ed I thought of that too. Just throwing out ideas because now that I've sold a few of you on the idea I want to go to the next level. There is a couple more ideas I had......
Back to the divisions (tribes if you will). I think it would be cool to have two Chiefs, maybe even the final two from the previous year. Then each chief is give 9 draft slots, one gets the even and one gets the odd. Then the 2 chiefs draft 7 owners each (16 prepicked owners, not just anybody you want) from the "owners" pool. Then the Chief assigns each owner a draft slot where they will draft from.. You may put weak owners early and your better guys later or whatever floats your boat. I like the idea of teh two tribes competing against each week on a PPG average basis. The highest scoring team each week could have immunity, or e could give out immunity to the highest scoring team on the losing tribe to avoid the weaklings voting off the powerhouses. reagrdless it is in your best interest to keep the high scorers around until the merge. At some prepositioned number teh two tribes will merge and it will be a free for all with the lowest scoring team voted off each week.
I don't know, just an idea and I think it would be cool to see what alliances would form how it would play out. Would the losing teams really be stupid enough to cut their own throats to eliminate a strong team? I can see it now, massive emails sent back and forth as owners ally up to get rid of the skank teams and low and behold somebody gets voted off and they never saw it coming. Major drama, major. I like it.
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| 23 | Ednecks
ID: 26819197
Sun, Dec 19, 2004, 10:33
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You are talking major bickering and As much as I would love to believe people would keep the better teams out of a sense of surivival, I think you would get buddy alianances forming. I'll play anything once and it does sounds right up my street with all the Emails that would be flying around. Your really trying to form the gameshow in fantasy football, I don't mind putting my money up and depending on my own talent to get a win, but when I have to depend on the likes of some of these clowns to keep BigEd alive, I can see the hate mail already.
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| 24 | Ednecks
ID: 26819197
Sun, Dec 19, 2004, 10:36
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A lot of A$$ kissing will be needed to survive, that means me and Shak have no chance??
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| 25 | RBP @ Home
ID: 16124215
Sun, Dec 19, 2004, 15:25
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Just an idea. Maybe teh fairest way is for the lowest scoing team from the losing tribe getting the boot. Then you can't get screwed by dudes that do not like you. I like teh other stuff though.
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| 26 | Shak
ID: 277541221
Sun, Dec 19, 2004, 17:26
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I'm not big on the tribe idea. It would make it too complicated. When would you join the tribes? What if there is an inbalance in numbers between the two tribes. What's the point if you're not going to vote? What's wrong with the way it is now?
BTW BigEd is in serious trouble!!!
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| 27 | RBP @ Work
ID: 39228222
Sun, Dec 19, 2004, 17:43
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Jimbo,
That's cool, just throwing out ideas--That is how this format got started in the first place. I posted my idea at the huddle.com and it grew from there. I explained the tribes in an earlier post then expounded upon that idea. I'm cooling to teh voting out teh weakest team though because the weak would ally and kick out teh strongest teams and that makes it a whole new ballgame, I don't think I want to go there. I do like the two tribes though and the chiefs drafting owners, I think that would cause lots of good discussion. How big of trouble is the Neck in???
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| 28 | Shak
ID: 277541221
Sun, Dec 19, 2004, 17:55
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He was 11 points down going into the late games with Horn left. I was 2nd lowest with Dillon left.
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| 29 | Shak
ID: 277541221
Sun, Dec 19, 2004, 18:01
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Scotty, you are in a barnburner in the contract league. Too close to call.
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| 30 | RBP @ Work
ID: 39228222
Sun, Dec 19, 2004, 18:18
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Yes I know. I need to get at least even before Dillon plays on MNF. I need Brooks to throw a TD pass, that would help.
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| 31 | RBP @ Work
ID: 39228222
Sun, Dec 19, 2004, 18:43
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Any chance I get a group of points from the Raven D??? I doubt it
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| 32 | Shak
ID: 277541221
Sun, Dec 19, 2004, 18:52
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Ed has life -- Horn scores with less than 4 mins left in the game. I'm going to need some points from Dillon to give Ed the boot.
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| 33 | RBP @ Work
ID: 39228222
Sun, Dec 19, 2004, 19:03
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Horn scores, YES!!!!! Because that means my QB is getting me "some" points. Shak how are you doing in LMSCL?
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| 34 | Shak
ID: 277541221
Sun, Dec 19, 2004, 19:09
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I had a big lead on Tim, but he has been chipping away. He has Edge and Wayne tonight and I have no one, so he may win going away.
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| 35 | RBP @ Work
ID: 39228222
Sun, Dec 19, 2004, 19:16
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I don't care who I play next week. As long as my boys show up I'll be ok. Probably going to have to break down and bench T. Jones for Roy Williams. That was a pretty good pick for the 12th/13th pick in our rookie draft.
How are you guys doing in other leagues? Me you ask?
1st round bye, #2 seed in a contract league.
#3 seed in Buddy's keeper league ($100), 1st round loss.
Fighting for my life in LMSCL, but I think I'll survive with 100+ points.
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| 37 | Ednecks
ID: 26819197
Sun, Dec 19, 2004, 19:36
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I'll leave the rock as soon as Mike get the boat ready!!
SSFFL (Main League) 12 teams 6th and last playoff seed, started out 0-6 and made the playoffs with a 7-7 record. Blowing out the #3 seed and will win easy.
Mikes (Pain Game) Beating Buddy (Trash) with the Collins to Porter hookup and I hope this one is over..50+ lead and he has Vinateri and Baltimore left.
Keeper League lost in the first round of the playoffs.
Good luck everyone and it sucks to leave at this point, but I had a feeling it was going to be close.
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| 38 | Shak
ID: 277541221
Sun, Dec 19, 2004, 19:55
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I was the #2 seed in my A league ($250 entry). Unfortunately, I am getting schwacked by Volek. I need a huge outing by Manning, Wayne and McMichael.
#1 seed in an ESPN league. Will advance to championship game.
WC team in LMSCL. In a nailbiter with Tim this week. I have a 22 point lead and he has Edge and Wayne going.
Missed the playoffs in my other keeper league, but I have set myself up well for next year in that league.
And of course there is this little contest. I don't know how I've made it this far. I'm sure I'll finish 3rd.
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| 39 | Ednecks
ID: 26819197
Sun, Dec 19, 2004, 20:23
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$250 bucks, now that's a man's league. I like the thought of that kind of cash coming home..damn.
Shak you and Scotty look to be winning a few leagues, I thought I was the master, but it's obvious you and the Human wreakingball are the best!!!
Later and I'll play anything with you boys, all you have to do is ask... No Homo games..I know Mikes mind..thought I'd say that before he does...
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| 40 | RBP @ Work
ID: 39228222
Sun, Dec 19, 2004, 21:58
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No year is complete without at least 1 Championship. The best year I had was a few years ago when I won my Dynasty and Redraft league in teh same year (only playing in 2 leagues at that time). Paid $100 and won close to $800, that's a pretty good return for 1 season. If I had my druthers I would have won the $100 league because 1st place pays at least $800. Next would be LMSCL because that's $400. The last league I'm in is $30-40 entry fee range can't remember but I probably have the best chance in that one.
I'm thinking maybe SSS has the edge in Survivor, but really any of the remaining 3 could win at this point.
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| 41 | Shak
ID: 277541221
Sun, Dec 19, 2004, 22:08
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Any of the three?? Hmmmm. Are you changing your tune now?
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| 42 | RBP @ Work
ID: 39228222
Sun, Dec 19, 2004, 23:47
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...I said at this point.
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| 43 | Shak
ID: 277541221
Mon, Dec 20, 2004, 00:36
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Earlier this week you said you weren't sure how I made it this far, but now you believe I have a legit chance to win it all? I think we all know I belong in the slim and none category. It was a fun ride while it lasted.
Just out of the money. :-(
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| 44 | RBP @ Home
ID: 16124215
Mon, Dec 20, 2004, 05:48
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I stand by my statments, both of them. I am surprised you made it this far and you have just as good of a shot to win it as the other two. Anything can happen, I'll trade you places if you like :-)
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| 45 | Ednecks
ID: 26819197
Mon, Dec 20, 2004, 11:24
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I said you would have to score 80+ to stay alive after last week. It will be the same this week.
Shak is definetly the weaker team of the three soley because his Wr's suck. Pennington has a tough matchup against NE this week, so he'll need big points out of Carr to have a chance.
He's alive and that's all that matters. It would be a upset If Shak goes through to the final and he, Scotty, Mike, SSS and the human race knows that.
Have Fun.....I'm happy just to beat Buddy in the Pain Game league, I owed him a whoopin after he beat me in the Baseball final (WOF).
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