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Subject: RIFC AAA#2 Draft Recap
Posted by: holt
- [33703118] Fri, Sep 02, 2005, 03:49
RIFC Managers - You are each invited (though not required) to post your general reflections on the completed draft. Comments may be as detailed or as general as you wish. As a catalyst, feel free to comment on any of the following:
1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?
2. What were your favorite picks? Which do you wish you could do over?
3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?
4. What surprised you most about the draft?
5. If you could start over, would you do anything differently?
Non-managers are also welcome to post general comments on the draft, and to raise questions.
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| 1 | wiggs
Donor
ID: 04991311
Sat, Sep 03, 2005, 00:01
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I will be the 1st to give this a shot. I hope no one gets upset with my analysis.
1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?
My strategy was to grab the best player in the league (imo) in LT and then go from there. My initial plan was to take a 2nd RB in the 2nd round, but when Holt and CJ slipped to me in rounds 2 and 3 I had to take them.
2. What were your favorite picks? Which do you wish you could do over?
My favorite picks were LT, CJ, Holt of course. Picks I wish I could do over, Michael Bennett, unless he stays healthy and Michael Pittman.
3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?
Culdeus, Hubble, THK, Holt, Toral and TB. I really hate this question.
4. What surprised you most about the draft? Nothing really surprised me to much. There were a few picks that shocked me alittle, but I would rather not point them out.
5. If you could start over, would you do anything differently? I dont think I would have done anything differently, but I wish I could have gotten a better 2nd RB
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| 2 | culdeus
ID: 516121713
Sat, Sep 03, 2005, 00:16
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I'll play. I started this earlier tonight and I can't seem to fall asleep even though I have to be up early tomorrow. You can pick up on what would be my responses in the following. Second half to come later:
Wiggs:
Offense:B+
Wiggs will live and die based on what he did at the end of round 2. And it’s a great test case. Passing on some marginal 3rd tier (at best) RBs for two solid WRs in a 0ppr league was a great risk. I’m sure it killed him that Green didn’t hold out one more pick because after those first three picks nothing is really all that solid.
Defense:A
In addition to taking two WRs early he also grabbed IDPs early and often. Maybe too early given the lack of O depth he’s left with. Two complete rounds he passed on O depth to grab extra defense. This knowing how weak gurupies are at grabbing quality late round IDP talent. Well, at least he won’t have to worry about people sneaking past by virtue of a superior D because it isn’t happening
Will win league if:
Collins must live up to the hype in some capacity. He’s gonna have to find a better 3WR out there than what he’s left with on waivers as well as getting a timely RB pickup early. Still in a 14 person league this is an automatic contender
Hubble
Offense:B-
As much as the picks to the 5th were no-brainers it doesn’t make me love who they turned out to be. I have to worry if either JJ or Chambers can excel to their projections this year. I’m also a little worried Trent Green may have finally peaked. That stent thing would have me worried.
Defense:A-
Great job grabbing quality guys. Not a ton of value with McGee I thought or this would be an A. I’d figure that guy would have lasted at least 3 more rounds at a minimum and there were far better quality DBs on the board at that point as well.
Will win league if:
Gotta have somebody pull through from the WR corps if not two guys. A good 4 round starting core and solid D also makes this team a contender early on.
CEHP
Offense:B+
I know the double QB pick was accidental and maybe it turns into depth down the line, but in the end it didn’t hurt him all that much. Obviously here was the first guy that just said forget idps “I’m going straight O for the first 11 rounds” The depth and sleeper potential gained in that endeavor should work out for the best
Defense:C-
Not at all fired up about the DBs here and for a 13th round the LB picked up was pretty far down the list (Barton). This should be a weak spot out of the gate. Maybe Carolina can pitch some shutouts early until some replacements can be brought in.
Will win league if:
Can find good value to swap out accidental QB depth and bolster the WR and IDP contingent. As is I don’t find this team as competitive as the first two I looked at.
Fugazi
Offense: F
Really quite a pathetic showing here. I could come up with loads of negative things to say, but I’ll go easy since it’s pretty obvious this might be this guys first go at this. I count not a single top 20 RB top 30 WR or top 20 TE even. I’m holding my tounge at this point.
Defense:B+
Well, by reaching early for IDPs it isn’t hard to get good guys, but not necessarily good value. Only quarles I really have a….problem with.
Will win league if:
I could say lots of mean things here, but I won’t.
Culdeus
Offense: A-
I got what I consider a gift with Holmes. With Holmes comes LJ and getting him in the 6th isn’t out of control bad I guess. A solid group of WR top to bottom and good QB depth should make this the unit to watch early. If Jordan doesn’t pan out it could get dicey at the RB2 spot.
Defense:A-
Not as happy with this group as I wanted to be. Solid LBs, but the DB/DL isn’t as strong as I’m used to in comparison to other leagues. I let those spots slide in the hopes I’d get some steals and nothing materialized. Oh well.
Will win league if:
Obviously Jordan has to come through and Vick lives up to his promise as being a dual threat QB. Easily one of the more competitive teams in the league and after last years brain farts should make a good showing.
THK
Offense B
Not a bad group all told. TO in the second was a pretty big risk for a dominant RB league. I’m just a little worried Carnell/evans/mason are all in questionable offenses that could limit top end production
Defense: A
Wow, for all his waiting around he ended up with THE group to watch here. Two top 10 DBs 2 top 14 LBs and a decent DL and Team D.
Will win league if:
It’s not going to take much beyond getting some of the young guys to break out and have either Plummer or Carr match their career years. Sleeper team to win it all so far. You know I sort of ignored this team because I either submitted a q before he picked and checked out after I picked and didn’t notice this guy gaining steam. I do now.
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| 3 | Hubble
ID: 59562922
Sat, Sep 03, 2005, 01:35
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1. Plan Strategy?
Well, i decided to be diferent this year and pick 2nd. The plan was then to pick Shaun Alexander and Marvin Harrison as my core even if they shared Bye week. And from there to pick best player avalaible trying to fill in RB, QB and WR first. Obviously i got side tracked in week 7-8-9... I aimed at studs, not too old and not injury prone. I also wanted to get few valuable non starting RB just in case they get the job... i could always trade them. Since you cant win a league with just a draft, i will be very active in the F/A pick-ups... so beware all!
2. Favorite/worst pick?
Favorites
1.02 Shaun Alexander... just read lately that they want to throw more to him. I would love to see that! 400 yds receiving?
4.13 Trent Green, i consider he did slip far considering he wasnt injured at the time. Now i do hope it not serious... I agree that this could be Green's peakin year... should still be worthy of 4.13
20.13 Eric Coleman... If he can duplicate last year's number... i'd be laughing.
In fact pick 1 to 8 are very solid IMHO
Worst
9.03 Brian Urlacher... Should have picked 2nd QB or 3rd WR here... I would have had only one weekness instead of two. Very bad pick even though Urlacher will be a top LB. Back up QB would have been way better value for MY team.
19.02 David Patten... I just don't need him... it has no realy consequences... but i thought this pick sucked.
3.Best team?
In my humble opinion, TB as the best all around team (even better than mine). Then i would say CanEHdian Pride and Culdeus
4. Surprises?
it is always amazing to see how i think i'm sure about my next pick until i actually have to make the pick... then i chicken out... and re-analyse everything. Something really surprised me during the draft and i meant to write it here, but i forgot it... and that is surprising.... and it sucks cause it was really relevant :)
5. Something i'd do diffently
Well obviously pick 9.02.... screw IDP and pick a back-up QB... Give me McNair in 9.02 i still pick up Volek in 21.02 and it gives my team the security. Now if Green is healthy all year, that becomes irrelevant and i really beleive i have a strong team.
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| 4 | The Beezer
Leader
ID: 191202817
Sat, Sep 03, 2005, 01:40
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As an outsider, I thought I'd share my best and worst values in each round, along with overall rankings of the teams IMO. Regardless of whether I overrate you or underrate you, just remember that I'm in AAA and not the bigs for a reason. :)
Round 1:
Best value - Priest at 1.05 jumps out at me just because of his production when he's on. He could win 3-4 games for Culdeus even if injuries occur.
Worst value - I'm not high on Jamal this year as I prefer my first round picks out of jail during the offseason. Not a bad pick but there's a few on the board I would have taken instead.
Round 2:
Best value - I really like all the WR picks in this round. If pressed I'd take CJ at 2.14 just because it's the lowest pick and he's top 3 in my book.
Worst value - In hindsight, Tatum Bell is the obvious outlier in this round. That hurts. 'Nuff said.
Round 3:
Best value - McNabb at 3.09 is my favorite as I have the top 3 QBs pretty far ahead of the field and with all the top WRs and RBs gone this was a no-brainer from what I see.
Worst value - Barlow at 3.08. Mainly because he was a black hole last year, but I also think he would have lasted until 4.07 and allowed a better WR pick here.
Round 4:
Best value - Drew Bennett at 4.10. Hard to say as a lot of picks are close together. We'll call it the "Norm Chow" rule and move on.
Worst value - Stokley at 4.11. I feel bad for picking on Fugazi again but Stokley went at least 4 rounds later in every draft I've seen.
Round 5:
Best value - I like Benson at 5.13 as I think he'll really be a high performer in the second half of the season.
Worst value - Brooks at 5.03. I like Brooks but not at this point with the guys left on the board.
Round 6:
Best value - LJ at 6.10. Culdeus locks up the KC running game without having to use a 5th rounder to do it. Bravery should be rewarded and it was here.
Worst value - Faulk at 6.06. I see Marshall as a 10th rounder at best since you just don't know when he'll get his hands on the ball from week to week.
Round 7:
Best value - Mike Anderson at 7.13. If this draft was starting today, you might see Mike and Tatum's draft slots switches. Even if Tatum eventually wins the job, this pick should still come out ahead.
Worst value - Mark Clayton at 7.09. As a Boller owner and a Sooner fan, I still don't think Clayton will get the chance to do much this year.
Round 8:
Best value - Heap at 8.06. Boller will be all over his security blanket this year and Heap will be top-5 at TE.
Worst value - Charles Grant at 8.14. This pick could have waited 2 rounds even though I think he's a top-3 guy at DL.
Round 9:
Best value - Brees at 9.05. culdeus grabs the last decent QB off the board.
Worst value - Shelton at 9.14 looked early then and is looking worse by the day. I drafted him too so I'm hoping to be wrong about this one.
Round 10:
Best value - Charles Rogers at 10.06. High risk, high reward pick. Right spot to swing for the fences here.
Worst value - Vanderjadt at 10.14. Too early for a kicker this year IMO.
Round 11:
Best value - Jax D at 11.06. They should be really good this year and as the 10 D off the board this is a good find in the middle rounds.
Worst value - Michael Jenkins at 11.10. I just think the risk is too great and he could have been picked up much later.
Round 12:
Best value - Kerney at 12.12. Tops on my board for DLs and I like this just a hair better than 4-5 others this round.
Worst value - Willie Parker at 12.11. I think he'll be lucky to get 4 starts this year. If Bettis and Staley both miss 8-10 games this pick will be OK but this is too risky for my liking here.
Round 13:
Best value - Kevin Williams at 13.13. Nice find in the DL pile by Mike V. KW could be #1 by season's end and looks like a force from here.
Worst value - Troy Williamson at 13.01. I just can't see taking him ahead of Taylor at this point. He likely would have been there in round 15 IMO.
Round 14:
Best value - Lloyd at 14.06. Yes, SF stinks and the QB situation is muddled, but a #1 WR is a #1 WR, especially in round 14.
Worst value - Curry at 14.03. Too early and will probably be too inconsistent to use with any confidence.
Round 15:
Best value - Toomer at 15.10. I thought this was a typo at first. Toomer's likely WR3 worthy and is a great find this late.
Worst value - Edwards at 15.14. Great dynasty pick, but I just don't see much this year.
Round 16:
Best value - Sharper at 16.07. I'm worried about the team change, too, but this guy is a steal here even if his numbers drop from the move.
Worst value - Little at 16.02. I just don't see him doing much this year.
Round 17:
Best value - William Green, 17.10. Starter for now in Cleveland. If he does anything at all, this pick is a bargain.
Worst value - Quarles at 17.04. See Little, 16.02.
Round 18:
Best value - Toss-up between Witherspoon and Farrior. 2 LBs that will outperform more than half the players taken ahead of them.
Worst value - I don't see a bad pick in this round.
Round 19:
Best value - Arizona D at 19.13. This is a defense that should be taken seriously. Nice value here.
Worst value - Texans D at 19.14. I just think the AFC South is going to light them up way too much to make them worthwhile.
Round 20:
Best value - Dominic Rhodes at 20.03. Would be a huge steal if anything happens to Edge, plus he's a kick returner so he's not just wasting space.
Worst value - Peerless Price at 20.14. I paid $1 for him in the RG auction league. That probably invalidates everything typed in this post, but there you go.
Round 21:
Best value - Kasay at 21.09. Top-10 K with this pick means waiting was the right move for Tree.
Worst value - If they have a pulse, there's no such thing as a bad pick in round 21.
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Here's my rankings of the teams after the draft:
Culdeus
Tree
Mike V
Wiggs
TB
Hubble
Toral
Holt
THK
BMD
CEHp
Peter N.
MJD
Fugazi
If nothing else, this is bulletin-board material. Hope you found it interesting if nothing else.
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| 5 | TB
Sherpa
ID: 031811922
Sat, Sep 03, 2005, 02:04
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Pre-draft thoughts-
Looking at my rankings before the draft and the results from players from last years scoring format, I decided that the QB and WR positions are as deep as I have ever seen them. I had a blast drafting and playing in the RIFC last year. Being involved in 9 drafts this year, I wanted to try something different and just have fun with my picks. I think I was too uptight last year and entirely to trusting with my projections from footballguys.
Picking My Draft Spot and Draft Strategy-
- I picked the 10th spot so I could grab two solid RB early. I did think about grabbing the 3rd spot so I could grab Peyton Manning. Neither Guru or Taxman had overly impressive teams last year (not saying they were bad, just not dominating rosters), but they both won a lot of games and made the play-offs largely because of Culpepper and Manning. If Holt or Fugazi make the play-offs this year, I am completely changing my strategy for next year.
- Draft a top defense early. I absolutely hated playing the rotating defense game last year. With 14 teams, the top 20 defenses are never going to be available. It was frustrating losing games by only a couple points because my defense sucked. It was bad enough that I drafted Deuce McAllister in the first round and Steve Smith in the 3rd round. I had enough problems scrambling to make points without defensive woes. Well, I think it is safe to say that the Baltimore defense will not be injured this year.
- Stick to a VBD, but don't overthink what I am doing and don't rely on the draft dominator to hold all the answers. Draft dominator is a great tool for keeping all of my leagues organized, but their projections are not going to be perfect. Last year I had players that did much better than what was projected; Pittman, Plummer, Clayton, Burress, and Houshmandzadeth. I also grabbed some players that did well based on articles from FBG or that the dominator said would do well; R. Johnson, Charles Grant, Vinatieri, and Jimmy Smith. But, I drafted some players that didn't turn out near as good as it said they would; Toomer, Brooking, Foreman, Tampa Defense, and OMG Ron Dayne. Wait, can't blame that on FBG, I was drinking.
- Grab a player I really want early if I feel he will help my team. VBD be damned if I lose out on a guy because he isn't there 19 picks later. A lot of players come of the board after each of my even round picks so if I think a player is one of the top 20 talents available or think he won't be around by my next pick and I want him, I should just draft him.
Favorite Picks in Hindsight and Do-Overs
No favorite picks. I look at my team and feel like it is very average. If my team stays healthy, I could win a lot of games but I could also lose more than I win. Nothing stands out as "Great Pick!" and I am not as confident of this team as most others probably are of their teams. I hate having Tom Brady as my QB. Not that I think he will have a bad year, I just hate seeing him play well or NE win games. Hopefully my picking him will jinx the Patriots. I hope he throws 10 interceptions the first week. I think Davis and Westbrook form a solid rushing Duo and like the early bye weeks. I'm hoping The Bus is healthy and running well by week three to fill in.
10.05- Derrick Brooks- I should have drafted Nate Clements in this spot. Motley Crue and I were just talking about him and I forgot about him when it was my turn to draft which made me jump way too early on:
13.10 Jerry Azumah- Nobody had this guy on their radar. Reminds me of my Gannon "sleeper" pick last year. If just one person tells me they were thinking about drafting him, I wouldn't feel so bad about this pick. Then again, I look through the draft summary and don't see a single player taken after him that makes my heart ache because they are not on my team.
11.10 Michael Jenkins- I see where he went in most other drafts and think I could have gotten him further down. I stuck by my "strategy" above and grabbed a player I wanted. I knew I was going to grab the Indy defense with my next pick, though, and there was no other receiver that stood out for me.
Quick Glance at Every Team
Wiggs- Only weak spot is RB2. Very solid team. Hope I get him on week 10 or I am probably losing to him.
Hubble- Recent injury concerns for Green don't bode well. Trust me, as a Gonzo owner, I am hoping for a healthy Green. A solid team with nice offensive depth.
cehp- Pride is a fantasy football pro and has a solid team, except for his IDP. IDP was his weakness last year as well. I was thinking it would be nice to catch him in week 8 when Edge and Dunn have their bye weeks, but by then Henry and Williams could both be starters.
fugazi- Great QB, two nice DB's, and an okay WR corp. RB is very weak. Did I mention nice QB?
culdeus- Very good starting line-up. Hope to play him on week 5. Will have to do some shuffling week 7 at the WR position.
thk- Well rounded team. Will definitely compete this year.
mjd- Concerned with RB2 and WR's. Could be a good team, but could also be a bottom team.
holt- Really like the starting line-up except for RB2. Could still win a lot of games with Cpep at QB.
tree- If McNabb only fell one more spot...I just called you the f-word while writing this up. =) The more I watch Jackson this preseason, the more I am liking this team. LB and DB are weak. I project Kailee Wong to average about 2 more points a game than Greenwood. Right team, wrong LB.
TB- My team sucks.
Toral- Seeing how he has no less than 4 players I targeted to draft, I am going to have to say his team sucks too. Seriously, good team with good depth.
bmd- I am tired of saying solid team again and again so I am backspacing to tell you your QB sucks and so does your DL and DB. Could win it all.
Mike V- If Mike Anderson hangs on to starting job, very solid team. At one point in the draft I didn't like this team. Now, Benson has signed and Anderson is a starter. No weak areas.
Peter N- Good team. No offensive depth so needs to stay healthy to win it all.
I guess I like almost everyone's team and think anyone could make the play-offs.
If you could start over, would you do anything differently
As mentioned earlier, I am in 9 total leagues this year. I love football, it is my favorite sport. I picked this league over the other one because holt was commishing it and every owner who had already signed up were people I wanted to be in a league with. I expected a smooth draft and solid league participation in discussion and rationales. That didn't pan out like I was expecting and yes, it has taken away some of the enjoyment of this draft. I like being very involved in all my leagues, from putting together excel charts to running projections to just chatting away about what's going on. I don't foresee that level of participation from most owners. Hope I am wrong.
I look forward to setting my line-ups each week, grabbing half a dozen of my future starters from waivers, and seeing how the team I am managing performs in this league. I am tired of qualifying leagues being considered "less" than the Invitational League. Top to bottom the teams in this league drafted much better than last year and the competition seems even tougher. Somebody has to come in 2nd to last place and I am hoping it isn't me.
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| 6 | holt
ID: 33703118
Sat, Sep 03, 2005, 03:05
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"Not a ton of value with McGee I thought or this would be an A. I’d figure that guy would have lasted at least 3 more rounds at a minimum and there were far better quality DBs on the board at that point as well."
what are you talking about?
McGee scored 187 points in this format last season. that's more than any other IDP, and only 7 points less than your #1 pick Priest Holmes.
and if you give yourself an A- in defense then you'll have to give everyone else an A. your team defenses are bad. your DL is not top ten. I don't think your DB has ever played a single down in the NFL. fletcher is the only "top 10" you have on your defense.
it would be nice if you could make your opinion without being so rude. your comments about fugazi's draft are offensive. yes this is only the second draft he has done, but your judgement (I believe you used the word pathetic) is over the top. his defense will most likely out-score yours, and I'm not so sure that his offense won't out-score yours too. for starters, his QB out-scored your QB by over 140 points last season. you out-cheat-sheeted him for sure, but take a look at last year's pre-season cheat-sheets and you'll start to get an idea of how much you can count on them.
you're the one who used the #5 pick on an old injury-prone RB who will be splitting carries. rose-colored lenses.
"I count not a single top 20 RB top 30 WR or top 20 TE even. I’m holding my tounge at this point."
you should have held your tongue before that point.
I think Fred Taylor qualifies as a top-20 RB. at the time that Tatum Bell was drafted it was assumed that he would be the starter. willie parker was a good pick. he may turn out to be a top 20 before long.
Stokely and Kennison can be considered top-30 WR's, and Plaxico may or may not be. hard to say since the season hasn't been played yet.
no top 20 TE? uhhh, ok. graham had 7 td's last year. Heiden had 5. you're sitting there with LJ Smith and yet it's ok for you to criticize someone else's TE selections???
Making pre-season predictions and assessments is one thing, but to do it the way you do it - I think it's rude and unsporstmanlike.
normally I don't criticize draft re-caps, but in this case I just have to. I think your draft grades are heavily biased and are based on a flawed understanding of this league's scoring system. and surely there's some way you can grade other people's drafts without sounding like a draft-nazi.
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| 7 | holt
ID: 33703118
Sat, Sep 03, 2005, 05:37
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I always preface draft re-caps by saying that drafts are only the beginning. everyone will have several picks that don't pan out. a good draft doesn't mean you'll make the playoffs and a bad draft doesn't mean you're out. anyway...
1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?
even though I'd love to have 2 strong RB's, I didn't want to try to force it by taking a crap RB in the 2nd rd. I'd much rather take an impact player like culpepper. by taking the 8th pick I was pretty sure I'd come out with a good RB and culpepper, and it worked out.
I had also planned on taking a lot of WR's with up-side. I figure the more I take the better chance that one will really pan out.
I planned to wait as long as possible to take any IDP's, but I wanted one of the few DB/return men. I ended up with clements in the 10th. I'm sure he wouldn't have lasted another round so I consider him to be good value. my other idp I got in the 16th, 18th, and 20th, and I don't have any wasted bench slots for their back-ups.
2. What were your favorite picks? Which do you wish you could do over?
happy to have culpepper with the 2.07 pick.
also happy with my late wr prospecting picks (Curtis 11.08, Caldwell 12.07, Calico 13.08, Matt Jones 19.08).
McMichael in the 8th saved me from 3rd tier TE hell.
do-overs? I honestly can't say I wish I could re-do any. at the time I made them I did the best I could. even with my pick of Barlow in the 3rd - at the time I only had 1 RB and Barlow was the only RB left that was guaranteed to be starting the 1st week of the season, so I did what I thought I had to do. in a few weeks it will be easier to say which ones I'd like to re-do, but right now I have to stick to my guns and hope my research pays off.
3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?
honestly, I think we're all in about the same boat right now. injuries could sink any of us. there are strengths and weaknesses on every team. it's gonna come down to luck and the ability to correct problems. even teams that end up with solid players in every spot can flounder if they just don't have enough 'dynamite'. this is what makes things exciting. you see something weird happen every week.
-wiggs has a lot riding on Kerry Collins. rb2 and wr3 could be dicey, but half the league has the same problem.
-hubble may end up with issues at rb2 and wr3, but that is common. solid looking team.
-cEHp has questionable defense in my opinion but if it doesn't work out, who's to say he won't fix that?
-fugazi has manning who can almost win games on his own. also has some great IDP's, but RB and WR will be like a high-wire act. must find a way to get steady points from those spots.
-culdeus - picks seem solid enough. not sure how the holmes/johnson thing will play out, and jordan will need to prove he's the man this year.
-thk - similar to hubble. looks solid enough. rb2 and wr3 could be issues at some point, so what's new?
-mjd - again, rb2 and wr3 could become issues, and favre and mcnair could be stressful at times, but for now the pieces are all there and the team seems solid.
holt - rb2 is an issue for me too. I'd really like to see barlow not suck, or if Barlow sucks i'd like to see the Bus not stealing td's from Staley all year. but, like most of you guys, I like my team and think it's greatest team in the universe and hope it will be referred to for years to come as "The Team".
-tree - it all seems ok but those WR's - dunno - maybe they'll be great- something tells me he should have more depth or other options here but we'll see.
- TB- i don't see any issues here. an injury can make an issue pop up easy enough but it all looks good right now.
-toral - looks alright. not a lot of firepower at WR but they're ok.
- bmd- could be decent. lot of hopes riding on Palmer/Warner. I could envision some depth or performance issues with those wr's but maybe they'll be just fine.
-mike d - rb situation is foggy. could be great or could end up as disaster. great wr1 and 2, questionable options at wr3. some risks here but like all the other teams, I can envision a playoff run.
- peter n - will really need leftwich, ahman green, and dillon to all come through. if they all have decent years then playoffs are possible. my be painting himself in a corner with all those idp's on the bench and not much depth on offense.
4. What surprised you most about the draft?
how fast the last few rounds went. very nice. too bad about the rationale participation. I was poor with that too. feels like there's not enough time in the day. especially with baseball leagues still in full swing and pulling into the final stretch.
5. If you could start over, would you do anything differently?
if anything I would have grabbed some more RB options earlier, like travis henry or mike anderson for example. really would like to have another RB or two.
__________
anyway, I know my team by team analysis didn't say much. I just honestly think that it's still a 14 team race, and there are all kinds of wild and wacky things to come. dunno who will have huge years and who will bust. it should be fun and exciting to watch.
good luck to everyone, but especially to me, because I want to win and prefer that you all lose in the end.
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| 8 | culdeus
ID: 516121713
Sat, Sep 03, 2005, 10:28
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Fine, if you don't like the tone you don't have to pick me apart using the n-word. Seriously. Maybe it can be classified as mean-spirited, but it's at least spirited and is infinately more quotable than flower and roses writeups that most people write. I write these up because it gets me ready for live drafts. I like to take a step back and see who is drafting what where and when, especially when they make decisions to get backups over starters and when people handcuff. If you don't want to see the rest of them fine. I'll stop.
As to McGee. The guy isn't even for sure to keep his starting job let alone get those tackle numbers with the recent additions on D for Buffalo. That and people picked on him because he was a rookie last year. An additional year and the guy comes down to earth. And remember it's not how many points you score relative to other posisions that matter. Remember that when you look at TeamD's as well (I'll explain my anti-TeamD rationale later regardless).
But you are probably right, when I do these I usually do all of them at once and sweep back through and tweak the grades. I'd say I'd regrade my D as ~B to B+, but I like my upside with Davis the guy is going into a great system as their SS and will play up more in 3rd down situations. If not there is always the wire.
I probably just should have said nothing about Fugazi. I'm dissapointed someone with so little experience could make it in this league and. I stand by my evaluations of his team and I'll leave it at that.
I make no personal attacks of any kind and really re-reading it I thought everything else for the most part was sweet-clean. But maybe I'm wrong.
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| 9 | Hubble
ID: 59562922
Sat, Sep 03, 2005, 10:29
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Oh .... now i rememeber what did surprised me in the draft... thanks to HOLT!
I was surprised to see some manager drafting without knowing the rules... I humbly have to say that it was cristal clear that IDP return yards would be counted. If some managers were unsure about it, they could always have asked before the draft started. I don't mean to pick on anyone, and i'm sure it wouldn't have made any difference since it involves only 2 or 3 players.
I sure do agree with Holt (obviously, since it is my choice) that with returning yards included, McGee is clearly worthy of a 8th round pick. Therefore, my defense clearly deserve A+.
:)
Other than that, i don't mean to put gaz into the fire, but i don't consider Culdeus's comment to be offensing. There is nothing personnal here, and i actually kinda like trash talk. Beside as i said i enjoye reading those, even if people would be laughing at my team. I say thanks Culdeus for the time you took to write that stuff. It is always fun the re-read those comment at the end of the season and i sure will have a good laugh if Fugazi qualifies to RIFC and Culdeus get demoted to RIFC-double D.
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| 10 | culdeus
ID: 516121713
Sat, Sep 03, 2005, 10:30
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Whoops, if i could edit that last one I'd say McGee wasn't a rookie last year, but was playing corner full time for the first time last year.
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| 11 | TB
Sherpa
ID: 031811922
Sat, Sep 03, 2005, 11:22
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Culdeus, I enjoy your recaps so finish them up. I know you were not trying to be mean-spirited. Holt is somehow related to fugazi so there is not only a built-in defensive mechanism for family, but he probably feels somewhat responsible for bringing him into this league. I do think you rely too much on draft dominator projections to make your draft picks and tend to over value your own players. I know that I did the same thing last year. I am also surprised you don't seem to have a solid grasp on return scoring. I wonder how many people realized that they could go to our league site and see how players performed last year with this scoring format. McGee was the highest scoring DB and IDP at 11.71 a game. Not only were he and Clements the only two DB to score more than 10 points a game (only 4 IDP managed this), but there were only 8 other DB who played 16 games that averaged more than 8 points a game and only 11 LB who did the same. If he scores the same this year he will be drafted even sooner next year.
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| 12 | culdeus
ID: 31630622
Sat, Sep 03, 2005, 12:55
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For sure my achilles heel will be if KR/PR becomes a major factor. I felt I overthought that last year and in the end only a few reliable fantasy producers brought anything to the table with return points and probably wouldn't have changed anything for me anyway.
Leading up to the draft I spent a scant amount of time reading the rifc threads I was busy training and couldn't review the stuff at work so I went by what was on the website and never looked back. By the time I realized I was wrong it was mostly too late. Oh well.
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| 13 | culdeus
ID: 31630622
Sat, Sep 03, 2005, 13:06
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correct, but when evaluating it I'd say that the first redraft round more easily equates to the 6th round because IDPs would not go as early as they come off the board in the keeper rounds.
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| 14 | culdeus
ID: 516121713
Sat, Sep 03, 2005, 14:47
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More:
And so I continue.
MJD
Offense: B-
I’m fairly lukewarm on this entire unit. I’m not convinced Ronnie Brown won’t get into a RBBC after week 4 behind one of the worst OLines in the NFL this year. And behind that are two handcuffs. I guess I like the Coles pick there sort of a question mark in my eye, but Colbert and Engram don’t just scream upside to me, but shockey sort of stands in as a WR3 I guess. I like the QB depth, good value I thought getting 2 decent guys to bounce between.
Defense: B+
I guess I have to think Newman will take punts for the Cowboys this year. Given the pathetic state of their overall special teams unit he’ll have to make the yards on his own. Decent set of TeamD’s to bounce between, but I have my doubts that Pitt will remain a top flight unit overall.
Will win league if:
Ronnie Brown must be the #1 guy for the year and Farve and McNair keep the salad forks out of their backs. Not the flashiest team in terms of sexy picks with tons of upside, but should be competitive each week out.
Holt
Offense: B
I’m sure when Jackson went off the board there was no question that a swap to QB was in order. So I have no major issue with that. If anything this draft was a victim of who drafted around him. I think in the end a more Wiggsy strategy would have paid off with WR instead of Barlow there, but then who knows if Foster would have worked out in the 4th long term. I’m really not fired up about how the WR/TE group looks. I don’t really see a primary wr in a good system on the roster.
Defense:B
I take it Nate Clements will be taking punts. Jamie Sharper hasn’t been a consistent fantasy producer for two years now and in a new setting I don’t see that changing. The problem with drafting a mainly sack guy like Foley is sacks come every other game or so. I’d prefer gobs of tackles to go along with that which isn’t really the case. I had the Bills as the second D in this system.
Will win league if:
Ricky keeps taking the bong hits or comes back very slow. Needs lots of help at WR/TE week in and week out. Right now I see this team as middle of the pack with a decent shot to crack the playoffs, but not top tier.
Tree
Offense A-
Of all Tree’s team I think I ended up liking this one the best after all. He got away with robbery with McNabb in the late 3rd. Wow. Portis and Jackson were also great values in this system and he’s got Davis on the rejuvenation machine hopefully coming back strong. I like Driver to have a good year, but I’d think he’ll be looking to upgrade WR3 soon.
Defense:B+
Sort of filled up the bench with IDP guys some with decent upside, but nothing I’d call top 10. I’ve got no issue with when these guys were taken though.
Will win league if:
It won’t take much. Probably has to get one more reliable WR and maybe shift the IDP situation around a bit, but I’m pretty sure this is the most solid team overall I’ve looked at so far.
TB
Offense B-
I just can’t make a convincing case that this offense will be a long term producer. It has the look of a great team for 2003 to me. Davis and Westbrook both are better suited for ppr leagues than just straight yard and td leagues. Maybe they’ll both stay healthy and their situations stay intact long enough to live up to their draft spot. All three WR are on geriatric watch. I have to think all four of these guys (incl Gonzo) have to drop a step or two at some point. Brady reminds me of Aikman 1995 great winner, but just not a great fantasy guy.
Defense A-
For all the KR/PR talk I don’t see a certified/bonafide guy on this roster. I was under the impression Berrian would be taking most of the kick/punt duties? Maybe not, I don’t know for sure. Regardless me loves vilma and brooks and even though Baltimore went too early IMO it’s still somebody you don’t really have to worry about pulling for a bad matchup too often. I pretty much made this an A- for the simple fact that I felt the Indy pick was a waste in the 12th. No reason whatsoever to make that pick there when Parker/Shipp made better choices from a sleeper perspective.
Will win league if:
The geriatric oft injured squad holds itself together. This team likely has the highest average age going into the season. It will be interesting if that equates to a higher major injury count. Anyway should be a mid top-tier team with great championship chances as long as things hold together.
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| 15 | holt
ID: 33703118
Sat, Sep 03, 2005, 18:05
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culdeus - I do like that you spend time on the recaps and wish more people would do so. yes, TB is right - fugazi is my brother. last year's ribc qualifier was the first time he played fantasy sports. he made it to this league not because he's my brother, but because he earned an invitation by making the playoffs. in fact if memory serves, my team lead the league in points (not W/L though) and was knocked out by his in the first rd of the playoffs (most likely due to manning scorching some defense). he had a lot of the same issues last season. I remember that he drafted quentin griffin pretty early.
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| 16 | holt
ID: 33703118
Sat, Sep 03, 2005, 18:28
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just dug up a couple of posts from last season's discussion thread. this was the 1st rd of the playoffs:
___________________
150 holt
ID: 497552
Mon, Dec 13, 2004, 03:27 scores going into monday night:
8-BMD - 106.42 + dante hall
1-A's guy - 97.44 + eddie kennison
5-pops - 61.5 + chris brown, lawrence tynes
4-promize - 110.9
6-fugazi - 92.9 + antowain smith, johnnie morton
3-holt - 100.3 + derrick mason
7-hubble - 110.68
2-kev - 93.2 + keith bulluck
looks like 2 games are still riding on the chiefs/titans game.
__________________________
156 Athletics Guy
ID: 411251314
Tue, Dec 14, 2004, 00:42 Eddie Kennison is my hero!
______________________
157 holt
ID: 497552
Tue, Dec 14, 2004, 04:06 final scores (pending any stat adjustments):
8-BMD - 111.46
1-A's guy - 117.14
5-pops - 80.9
4-promize - 110.9
6-fugazi - 110.3
3-holt - 108.5
7-hubble - 110.68
2-kev - 104.2
congrats to the winners, you bastards.
_________________
159 holt
ID: 497552
Tue, Dec 14, 2004, 04:13 man - I lost to my bro by 1.8 points. we were watching the game, and mason made that 20 yd catch right at the end, which would have been enough to give me the win. but then instant replay showed he didn't have control of it. argh. there was a brief moment of time there where it looked like I had pulled out a victory. I hate that geek manning.
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| 17 | Kyle
ID: 367751
Sat, Sep 03, 2005, 19:07
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As a AA manager i like to see the smack talk in the upper leagues. Holt, your comment from last year angers me! As a colts fan i am offended and you should have lost if that is your feeling on manning.
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| 18 | holt
ID: 33703118
Sat, Sep 03, 2005, 19:13
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lol! it was my feeling on manning after he knocked me out of the playoffs.
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| 20 | Athletics Guy
ID: 87513016
Sun, Sep 04, 2005, 17:20
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156 Athletics Guy
ID: 411251314
Tue, Dec 14, 2004, 00:42 Eddie Kennison is my hero!
Sweet memories :)
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| 21 | Toral
ID: 53422511
Sun, Sep 04, 2005, 17:45
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Excellent team reviews, culdeus, I really enjoyed them.
Now you can start on Political Gurupie ;) The horror, the horror!
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| 22 | cEHp
ID: 15521916
Sun, Sep 04, 2005, 18:30
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culdeus -- you keep referring to my "QB Problem" -- can you elaborate? At first I thought you were referring to my "RB problem" being that my RB1 & RB2 have the same bye week but you keep calling it a "QB" problem. I don't follow.
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| 23 | culdeus
ID: 516121713
Sun, Sep 04, 2005, 19:16
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Did I have it down wrong that you drafted two QBs too early on accident? I put it in the notes early on.
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| 24 | culdeus
ID: 516121713
Sun, Sep 04, 2005, 19:20
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Whoops, I see if you put notes in DD it carries over to all the leagues. It was rfs in the poli league. My bad. Hmm....I'll try to edit it. Heck you have two very bonafide starting QBs anyway so in a way it was a compliment. Had you had Orton or something backing up Brooks I would have caught the issue.
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| 25 | culdeus
ID: 516121713
Sun, Sep 04, 2005, 19:22
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Toral
Offense: A
Wow, I really like the looks of this setup. Maybe Martin was a pick or two early, but it is made up by getting Jones a pick or two late. Then in the 5th Brown got picked up and the guy as a 3RB should make a good fill in. The WR group is aged a bit but solid and Bulger is one of the most reliable producers out there. As long as Jones lives up to his hype this should/could be the #1 unit of this league
Defense B
Not a huge fan of TB’s Defense anymore and Dunta Robinson seems destined to disappoint IMO. LB/DLs seem serviceable, but not spectacular.
Will win league if:
Won’t take too much to make a deep run. Maybe Gruden’s still got it, but seeing what that offense has in the bag they are in trouble. A couple of good pickups if needed on IDP and this goes from a top tier to the championship easily.
BMD
Offense B+
I think if I do this again I’m gonna have to get to the back of the draft order. Lots of good 1-2 RB combos here. I just didn’t like the Palmer pick when Brady would have easily had lasted around the turn. Same with Warner. Other than that the only thing I can nipick is that the Antonio Bryant pick is just so bang/bust.
Defense C
I’m under the assumption that Dawkins isn’t catching anything on a ballistic trajectory this year. Other than that I’m not sure he was a draftable player in this system. Neither was Little. Bulluck should be solid, but the 7th round was pretty early I thought. Neither TeamD are what I would call imposing
Will win league if:
On first glance the team looks pretty solid, but the more I looked at it it seems somewhat middle-tier to me. Bryant has to keep his head on straight and there needs to be some quality IDP waiver pickups early on. Otherwise I’d see it as 50/50 a playoff team.
Mike V
Offense A
Sometimes these slow drafts have winners relative to when big events happened. It would seem Mike V got the biggest boost this year from that with Anderson, Benson, and to a lesser extent Droughns in differing degrees. Solid top to bottom, but I’m a bit worried the best years are behind Smith and SMoss.
Defense: B-
Strong at DL/DB and weak at LB and Team D. Demarcus Ware was a sexy pick that was undoubtedly motivated by the preseason game. In reality where he lines up he’s unlikely to get tackle numbers to justify the 11th round pick.
Will win league if:
Any of the preseason darlings pay off and maybe between a couple of these LBs something pays off. Still with how things look this is probably a lower top tier team.
PeterN
Offense: C
This is a purely based on the picking strategy. The sheer lack of warm bodies on the bench never works and Eric Shelton as RB3?!? This can’t end well. This is one of those teams on pins and needles all year and in a 14 person start 6 league you just can’t exist like that. That being said the WR/TE group might actually be the best there is.
Defense: A-
I guess so, the guy’s got enough players here to start two whole squads. I’ll be watching the wire to see when he starts dumping some of these guys as wasted 12th rounders that could easily end up on my or somebody’s bench.
Will win league if:
Well might want to talk to somebody with IDP problems and work something out otherwise this team is lower mid-tier to lower tier. One of the strangest drafting strategies seen who knows maybe it works out. I understand being on the turn sort of wears on people because you can’t count on anything falling to you for sure.
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| 26 | Toral
ID: 53422511
Sun, Sep 04, 2005, 19:24
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Another example of how DD seems to take over people's minds and make them into pod people ;)
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| 27 | culdeus
ID: 516121713
Sun, Sep 04, 2005, 19:27
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I'll try to take a stab at how this thing might shake out 1 to n, but this league is so tight top to bottom there is just no telling. There are probably 7 teams that wouldn't shock me if they won this thing and another 5 that if they catch a couple of good breaks anything can happen.
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| 28 | cEHp
ID: 15521916
Sun, Sep 04, 2005, 23:57
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Draft Recap:
My plan was to go with the flow of the draft, leave my defensive picks until late and try to achieve a balanced team with solid depth throughout all position (except IDP)
Favorite picks:
Anquan Boldin (4.12) - Stud wide receiver that fell considerably due to preseason nose injury. The guy is fully recovered from his injury last season and posted huge numbers in a truncated season.
Keyshawn Johnson (11.03) - Gives me a WR4 w/ 1000 yard potential. Very happy w/ my overall offensive depth after this pick.
Patrick Kearyney (12.12) - Top notch DL, considerably long after many other IDPs had been off the board.
Antoine Winfield (14.12) - Pro Bowl DB that missed a few games last season diminishing his tackle stats. Notched 3 INTs (career high) in fewer games than the year before. Should post over 100 tackles now that he has had a full season in his new system.
Team I like most:
I really like Tree's team. If Stephen Davis stays healthy he will have tremendous RB depth. McNabb was huge in the 3rd round and he stole Morlon Greenwood who was supposed to be my LB2. He should make a serious run for the title.
Toral - Extrememly solid draft. Great mix of young potential and proven talent. May need some help at WR as I think Moulds will have a long season w/ Losman at the helm however Rod Smith was a nice value pick. A lot could hinge on McCariens -- if he has a solid season Toral could easily make it to the dance.
Dilligad - I'd say this is my boom or bust pick. One of the gamblers in the draft that will go a long way if a few picks hit. Benson will really give his RB depth a boost however he could also be his kiss of depth. Orton could spell doom in his inaugural season. Also depending heavily on Mike Williams to provide offense after WR3.
Surprises - How quickly IDPs started coming off the board. I was dead set on waiting due to the lesson I learned after "The Pick Heard 'Round the World" in lasts years AAA draft. I took well deserved flack for it and was not going to falter again. Ironically, Champ Bailey went undrafted this year ----- ;)
Start over - Would I have passed on Warrick Dunn due to the bye week issues --- nah! I loved the pick and I think my contingency plan could work out very well down the road. Would I have waited on Aaron Brooks? -- nah! Brooks is a stud and will take his game to the next level in a simplified scheme. I would have not taken Deltha O'Neal -- at the time of the pick I assumed that he would take over the punt/kick return duties that he excelled at prior to his injury last year. It looks like this is not the case and therefore he value isn't as high as I expected. Easily replaced though as most late IDPs are.
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| 29 | mjd
Donor
ID: 501381415
Mon, Sep 05, 2005, 19:48
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I suddenly got swamped right after the draft ended, but I do plan to participate in this and be an active member of this league.
I'm enjoying all of the remarks that I've read so far.
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| 30 | mjd
Donor
ID: 501381415
Tue, Sep 06, 2005, 00:24
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This is my first year playing in any RIFC league. Even though I'm relitively new to fantasy sports, I do know that players on the Rotoguru boards are some of the most experienced and skilled out there. I also know that I can get better, faster, by playing in a RIFC sanctioned league. My first year in a RIBC AA league has been a bust, but I'm in 2 other keeper leagues with Rotoguru boards members and those teams are still in contention coming into the last month of the season. I really enjoy the tough competition.
I also have spent alot of time reading and understanding the rules. especially the scoring system and now, the FA/WW rules.
1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?
My plan from the very start, was to choose somewhere in the middle of the draft and to pick 2 RB, 2 WRS, and 1QB, in that order, with my 1st 5 picks. Nothing that happened in the 1st five rounds caused me to deviate from my plan. From there, the plan was to let the draft come to me and try to pick the best player available, according to my needs. Wait and see what falls to me.
2. What were your favorite picks? Which do you wish you could do over?
My favorite picks were Willis McGehee and Joe Horn. The Bills are a run and play tough D team and I expect McGehee to get 30+ touches per game. I'm not a big Saints fan, but Joe Horn has proven that he is among the elite WR for several years now.
The Ronnie Brown pick at 2.08 causes me concern in a couple of ways. First, I drafted the 1st Miami player chosen in the draft. And Miami really sucks. They still have not recovered from the Ricky Williams quitting last year. He very well could mess up my RB situation this year if he comes back after his 4 game suspension and Sabin decides to go RBBC or worse yet, takes over the starting job. At the time I drafted Brown, I thought this was unimaginable. Now, as I look at worse case scenerios, I see that I had other options with less risk. I'm hoping on the best case where Brown has a 4 week head start and Ricky is way behind when he returns. Waver wire behind.
I'm also happy with my QBs, Farve and McNair, my Ds, Pittsburgh and Wash, and a couple of my IDPs, Terence Newman and James Farrior.
Bobby Engram as my 3rd WR has lost much of it's appeal with Seattle's late signing of Peter Warrick.
3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?
I was so busy drafting, doing intradraft research, and managing my baseball teams, that other than noticing when my next rated player was snagged off the board just before I was to pick, I didn't pay much attention to other teams. I noted individual players, but not specific teams. The lone exception was picking Washington as my 2nd D at 14.08. One team still had not picked a D yet, and I had Washington as the last D in that tier, before a significant dropoff, IMO.
Looking at all the teams now, I think that most will be competitive and that once again injuries and the waver wire surprises will greatly influence the standings.
4. What surprised you most about the draft?
The fact that I drew the #1 hole as far as choosing draft position. It's never happened before. I already wrote in the draft rationales why I picked 7th. I was only tempted for a brief second to grab that #1 pick.
I was also surprised to see so many IDPs coming off the board so early. I expected the top 3 or 4 come off early, but not nearly as many that did.
My real surprise of the draft was Priest falling to the 5th overall pick. Culdeus really stepped in it here and did a nice job of handcuffing his backup in a reasonable spot. And Culdeus, I cannot disagree with any of your assessments except I think you were a little generous with your grades. I can also see where other players disagree with your assessment of their team. Your grades always cause controversy. This controversy usually leads to spirited debate. I'm here for that debate. Once again, well done.
5. If you could start over, would you do anything differently?
That's easy using 20/20 hindsight. Don't draft Ronnie Brown and Bobby Engram as my #2 RB and #3 WR. Lamont Jordan would have been a less risky pick and there was at least a half a dozen better choices at WR before 15.08, where I took Engram.
That said, I always like to have room for the various unknowns that come off the waver wire.
One more thing. Next time, before I volunteer to be responsible to call someone every time it is their pick, I will demand compensation in the form of a trade of draft picks. Say my last round pick for their 15th or 16th rounder. It certainly was not the cost of the calls. I have unused minutes every month. And most of the calls were made during the time where I had unlimited minutes. I don't have any problem helping someone out for a few days or even a week if they need help. It's just the inconvenience of being responsible for someone else for a longer period of time. It was difficult enough to be responsible for myself. At the time I promised, things were a little testy and some people were upset. I really didn't want this draft to suck and once we worked everything out and went to a 4 hour clock the second week, it was a blast. So if that helped in any way, it was well worth it.
I greatly debated with myself if I should buy the services of a web site to aid with my drafts. I bought footballguys.com last year and even though I thought they had a decent year last year, they were not at their best and my biggest mistake last year was relying on their rankings too much. This year, I will buy a service, but after the draft. For this draft, I relied on multiple free sites, but mainly my knowledge and gut feeling. I get so mad at myself for going with the advice of the so called experts because I put out the cash instead of my gut feeling.
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| 31 | culdeus
ID: 6722322
Wed, Sep 07, 2005, 17:53
|
This is late in coming, but I had to stew on this awhile. I tinkered with some better ways to break this down, but in the end I’ll just keep it simple. In reality I have no clue who will win this thing. This league is pretty flat top to bottom and schedules will play en enormous role in who gets that extra win or two. Yes, this is a pretty cut and dry cheatsheet analysis and yes this is based on data that wasn’t available when drafting. So it goes.
Another thing. I do a lot of this in stages. I don’t try to refer back to my earlier grades that much and for the most part they are discarded for this and a more quantitative approach is taken. I’d say the grades are 25/75 quan/qual and this is 80/20 quan/qual
Breaking down the teams I usually go with the following areas.
1. 2 top 24 RB 3 top 36 WR [DD]
– I would go to 28 and 42, but there is a massive dropoff even at 22 and 30 that I’d rather not cross too far.
2. [ONE OF THREE] Either a top 3 QB or sufficient depth to cover either a RB1,2 WR1,2 injury or very strong TE/D/PK group. [DD]
-I struggled with what else to balance this criteria with as there is no flex.to really play QB off. Potentially this group may prove to be too large, but I will have a heavy hand when dealing with the last set.
(q)=Strong QB (d)=Depth (t)=te teamd pk
3. Reasonable IDP personages [DD]
-Meaning team has what could be described as a top 6 IDP grouping. I will do my best to ID KR/PR guys, but I’ll admit I haven’t taken that fully into account for everyone.
Beyond that teams that met 2 of 3 criteria were looked at for:
4a. Gambles that might pay off BIG TIME [ME]
-This means RB in RBBC situations that could clear up in their favor. QB in a new system that might explode. Must be drafted in rounds 15+ with few exceptions. With a large league you need people with UPPPSIDE potential because the waiver pool is already drained. This is subjective for the most part.
4b. Reasonably youthful squad [ME]
-Again a very subjective look at teams with injury risk either without quality backups or handcuffs in place to cover for them. Injuries in a 14 team league can just murder you.
Qualifiers (*Marginal)
1. CEHP*, culdeus, THK, Holt, Tree*, Toral, MikeV, PeterN
2. Fugazi(q), culdeus(d), THK(d), MJD(t), Holt(Q),Tree(Q),TB(t),Toral(d), BMD(d)
3. Wiggs, Hubble, Fugazi, culdeus, THK, TB, MJD
Teams that made 2/3
Fugazi, culdeus, THK, MJD, TB, Holt, Toral, Tree
A second cut was made based on criteria 4.
Fugazi (cut) based on lack of upside outside of Willie Parker nothing much to see here. Tatum Bell looks to be DOA as well as Fragile Freddy in the injury prone category.
Culdeus(stays) Priest, however injury prone is handcuffed with LJ. And to a certain extent the NE WR corps is handcuffed together. Reggie Williams could breakout this year.
THK(stays, barely) Really tough call this. It’s tough to look at the TB and CAR situation and see anything but RBBC at best, busts at worse. So much upside around other areas it sort of washed
MJD (cut) Just not seeing the Farve/McNair combo making it. The RB AND WR situation are both thinner than Laura Flynn Boyle. This team just can’t live through the season intact.
Holt (cut) I don’t see any backup that really gets me going. Yeah the starting group looks ok, but when push comes to shove in byes this team might get chopped up.
Tree (stays) I like this group a lot. Davis, Rogers, and even Abraham and Greenwood could represent tremendous value with lots of upside and they might not even start a majority of your games.
TB (cut) I just can’t see all these previously injury prone backs lasting the whole season. Same with the WR group, all old and over the hill. Just asking to be starting waiver wire guys by week 6. Sorry, I really like this squad overall and if it holds together it will be a force, but I’m not putting any money on it.
Toral (stays) Can plug in Pennington, Brown, McCarenis right away and not drop too much in production. Easy choice here. Handcuffed KJ even when it was mostly optional to do so.
So who’s left? And what do they need to happen to succeed?
Culdeus – Jordan must play like an RB2, one of NE WR is a stud, TeamD roulette must pay off
Tree – Needs a 3rd WR and a wee bit of IDP help
THK – Gotta have a RB2 that can be a week in week out starter. TeamD roulette warrior also. Got a pile of mediocre WR2/3 to sift through each week correctly.
Toral – Needs IDP help. Martin or Brown has to be a stud.
Ok that’s over. Looking at all factors I’ll now attempt to make my ridiculous projection of 1 to n for this league. Drum rollll…..
----40%----
Tree
Toral
Culdeus
THK
-------35%------
TB
Wiggs
Holt
Mike V
------20%------
Peter N
CEHP
BMD
------5%-------
Hubble
MJD
Fugazi
This is the basic way I see things shaking out. I’ve got a pretty high confidence that the winner will come out of the top 4 40% of the time and you can see on down where I see the tiers breaking up. This is fairly contra-indicated by draft dominator. It would actually have the top 4 as:
Wiggs
PeterN
Culdeus
TB
For the record. And then after TB there is just a huge pileup all the way to the 12th spot.
I look forward to this league much more than last year because I took the time to really understand the drafting tendencies of this group, watched what the winning teams did right, and didn’t panic.
In the end with a 14 person welfare waiver wire system much of this can get thrown out in a hurry. In an ideal world a blind bidding system would be implemented because not only is it more fair the league size just magnifies the problem that the guys in the back have getting quality people early on in the year. The real winner of this league will be the one who can pluck the top 20 RB off the wire the first week and never look back. That clears up a lot of drafting problems really quick. No amount of draft grades and rating can guess how that will work out. Just ask Promize!!!
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| 32 | cEHp
ID: 15521916
Wed, Sep 07, 2005, 20:28
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culdeus - I appreciate you taking the time out to give your take on the league, there was some very interesting insight given in your breakdown however I must call you on one of the criteria used, or perhaps not used, in making your rankings.
You are clearly a disciple of Draft Dominator, personally this is the first time I've ever heard of it but it obviously is reputable as several people are utilizing it. One thing that I find askew about the way DD breaks things down is their definition of "depth". The criteria above clearly bases depth on the ability to cover the loss of a valuable member of a team. This obviously values the "handcuff" approach to drafting. What it fails to address is the depth that provides value due to bye week coverage and trade value -- which is the downside of handcuffing.
Handcuffing players is really only beneficial if the handcuffer (more prevelant of the two) declines in value by way of injury or decreased performance. They are also both affected by the same bye week and have zero trade value as you must keep the handcuff intact otherwise it shouldn't have been done in the first place.
Conversely, taking a similarly ranked player that isn't a handcuff can benefit the team if the more prevelant player in their situation gets injured, without hurting your team, is free to cover bye weeks (unless they are the same obviously) and can be traded at any time to improve the overall team.
Too me this depth is even more important as it is need to deal w/ unavoidable situations (injuries may not happen, bye weeks certainly will) but seems to go unweighted in your formula.
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| 33 | culdeus
ID: 31630622
Wed, Sep 07, 2005, 23:15
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Well that was really 1/3 of 1/4 of the entire analysis I did. And in fact there is a component of DD that does exactly what you are talking about where it takes into account not only bye situations but strength of schedule on a week to week basis if you want. It then adjusts the rankings accordingly. I use those for more of the RB4 WR5 sort of draft picks and obviously TeamDs to get the players un-correlated.
Quickly, I would disagree as to the power of handcuffing. This is a 14 person league. Not quite by definition a deep league, but with 2RBs to start there are going to be teams with very marginal RB2s. And whatever is left on the wire you have to assume you have 0 access to because odds are DD will put you at least in the middle of the pack. Handcuffing in RIFC when needed is essential. For a guy like Holmes I would much rather have LJ and sleep at night than go after some semi-spare like Thomas Jones to cover an extra 8 points twice during the year. Especially when you have what? 7 bench spots (I need to count).
Trades in FF are hardly ever worked out because they tend to be 1RB for 1WR or multi-posistion deals. It's rare to see a RB for RB swap or anything of the sort. I think it is EXTERMELY difficult to get present value in trades for starting quality players. I've seen some notable exceptions where QB2 for RB3 swapped helped both parties by upgrading both starters right away, but those are very rare. And none of these are reasons to not take up extra roster spots for handcuffs.
More later. And I need to address TeamDs at some point as well I do think I covered it last year I should dig up that stuff.
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| 34 | FUGAZI
ID: 13828813
Thu, Sep 08, 2005, 14:38
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am i the only one who hates couldeus allready?
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| 35 | wiggs
Donor
ID: 04991311
Thu, Sep 08, 2005, 15:17
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yes
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| 36 | holt
ID: 1181585
Thu, Sep 08, 2005, 15:44
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Hate is pretty strong. I don't take him seriously enough to hate him, and I don't even know him.
I do think his opinions are without much value though.
I think comments like this one pretty much say it all:
"Holt (cut) I don’t see any backup that really gets me going. Yeah the starting group looks ok, but when push comes to shove in byes this team might get chopped up."
as if I'm not going to make any roster moves to handle bye weeks.
???
"Will win league if:
Ricky keeps taking the bong hits or comes back very slow. Needs lots of help at WR/TE week in and week out."
Ricky? lots of help at WR/TE week in week out?
if you're going make judgements of whether someone's team sucks or not, at least take the time to look at their roster and not someone else's when you're doing it. I have no dolphins RB's, and I have no WR/TE issues.
"(cut) I don’t see any backup that really gets me going."
Griese at QB2. Staley, Jacobs, and Perry backing up at RB. Curtis, Caldwell, Calico, and Jones at WR.
first off, I'm not sure if he was looking at my roster or some dude's in another league. secondly, if he was looking at my roster, then he either is relying on draft dominator too heavily or just doesn't have the same info that I do.
seriously, go look at the projections that DD used last season and then compare them to what actually happened.
I use cheat sheets like everyone else, but only to remind myself of who is still available and who I need to research.
projections are only barely useful. take Reche Caldwell for example. I'm looking at a projection for him that shows 520 yds, 4 td. problem with that is that is that he was on pace for about 1000 yds and 9 td's last season til he was hurt.
so, that projection is just someone averaging a healthy caldwell with a hurt caldwell. they said hey, he might have 1000/8, or 0/0, so let's just give him 500/4.
worthless. now if they would give multiple projections for various possibilities for each player then they'd be worth a little more.
for example:
Priest 'king kong' holmes: 2400 total yds/20 td
Priest 'committee' holmes: 1200 total yds/11 td
Priest 'the clapper' holmes 600 total yds/5 td
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| 37 | TB
ID: 1286814
Thu, Sep 08, 2005, 15:46
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Lighten up, Fugazi. He pretty much said my team is old and can't compete and I enjoyed reading it. It isn't like he dissed me personally, just provided his opinion on my broken team. I respect him for not only taking the time to contribute to the discussion, but also for having the balls to throw his opinion out there. I don't agree with everything he said and do find it somewhat humorous when he uses DD to convince himself of his strengths, but ignore DD when judging some other teams.
As far as grabbing quality back-up RB's and handcuffing studs, I agree with both. I think the Holmes/Johnson scenario could end up biting Culdeus if Holmes stays healthy all year and ends up splitting carries with Johnson. If they don't split carriies, Holmes is a great RB to have. If Holmes gets injured, Johnson is a great RB to have. If they split carries weekly, it could become frustrating. I would rather have a solid back-up to a uncertain starter, like Jones/Benson or Arrington/Shipp or Anderson/Bell, than a week handcuff like Moats/Gordan or Wells/Hollings/Morency or Gore/Hicks.
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| 38 | FUGAZI
ID: 13828813
Thu, Sep 08, 2005, 16:32
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i just cant stand people talking trash before the season even starts. i guess i could buy a program to draft with as well. and then we can have nice sterile drafts.
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| 39 | beastiemiked
ID: 03531815
Thu, Sep 08, 2005, 16:51
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I actually enjoy the analysis. At least he's got the cajones to muster up some predictions.
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| 40 | Hubble
ID: 56213211
Thu, Sep 08, 2005, 16:54
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i like thrash talk... and like TB i congratulate Culdeus for taking time to analyse our team HIS way... I personnaly like it when people actually answer the question 3 instead of saying everyone is good and made terrific draft.
I personnaly don't share Culdeus's views on most team... but that gives us material to read and maybe, i say maybe, help us realize some of our weeknesses. Heck it almost makes me want to take some time and write my owns... and have people hate me... lol
Cheers all
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| 41 | culdeus
ID: 6722322
Thu, Sep 08, 2005, 18:16
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as if I'm not going to make any roster moves to handle bye weeks.
???
Maybe so, I did address this. But even by the time the bye weeks start the only reasonable players to pick up of their own accord (not injury fill ins) are long gone outside of IDPs.
And again quality teams will have 0 access to the top waiver players. I can't stress this enough.
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| 42 | Hubble
ID: 59562922
Thu, Sep 08, 2005, 18:25
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That is why i plan to suck in the first weeks... LOL
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| 43 | holt
ID: 1181585
Thu, Sep 08, 2005, 18:55
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"the only reasonable players to pick up of their own accord (not injury fill ins) are long gone outside of IDPs."
but I have reserve QB, WR's, and RB's.
the only thing I don't have in reserve is IDP's, K, and TE.
your argument that bye-weeks will chop me up is pure hog-wash. bye weeks don't present any more problem to me than anyone else. in fact, I'm probably more prepared for them than most.
I really don't care how you rate my draft or how high you think I'll finish. it's not that big a deal, but when you make statements that are inaccurate or have little to no basis in fact then I have little choice but to point it out.
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| 44 | culdeus
ID: 6722322
Thu, Sep 08, 2005, 19:12
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Sigh, now I have to go open your roster again.
Ok, Duce may never get even 50% of the carries now. You couldn't have known that then, but I do now. I reserve the right to hold changes in status against people. The fact is he was still shaky in preseason prior to the pick. I don't see a single other RB that if was available in FA I would make a claim on and this knowing that Suggs (for me) has pretty much turned out to be a bust for me as well even prior to week 1.
As to WR backups the only guy I see with any sort of upside is Calico and that is if he comes back from major knee surgery with any sort of speed and Bennett regresses as well. I'll go ahead and call it right now; of your 4 backup WR at most 1 will be on your roster at the end of the year.
I stand by my breakdown of your backups. I don't think I needed DD to tell that. Honestly, it was one of the easist things to spot.
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| 45 | holt
ID: 1181585
Thu, Sep 08, 2005, 19:16
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did you see any miami RB's on my roster this time?
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| 46 | Toral
ID: 10858715
Thu, Sep 08, 2005, 19:37
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1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?
After selecting pick 11, my strategy was to grab two solid RBs, then select WRs, RBs, a TE and a D as value dictated for the first 13 rounds or so, stopping to grab 2 QBs around round 7 or so, and believing that there would be sufficient IDP value late to pick them late. I decided that Bulger was worth grabbing in the 4th round, but otherwise executed the strategy.
2. What were your favorite picks? Which do you wish you could do over?
My favourite pick was 5.11 Chris Brown. 15.11 Shayne Graham was too early. I'm surprisingly neutral about most of my picks. A lot were the best available IMO at the time, no worse but no better, not a "steal".
3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?
The teams I like best are those of CehP, culdeus, tree and TB raiders.
4. What surprised you most about the draft?
Derrick Blaylock going at 8.08 was an unpleasant surprise. I had hoped to handcuff him to Martin, but never thought of taking him close to that high. Tatum Bell going so early surprised me, but that's been happening in a lot of drafts; his ADP remained above Mike Anderson's long after Anderson was named the starter. I was surprised that a lot of teams seemed uninterested in getting a solid QB2.
5. If you could start over, would you do anything differently?
Although I still believe in taking IDPs late, I'd give serious consideration to picking one of the handful of true IDP studs early. Ray Lewis might have been a better pick than Alge Crumpler. An early IDP takes pressure off those late picks, but it would leave me a round behind in going for offensive skill player value.
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| 47 | culdeus
ID: 71032112
Thu, Nov 03, 2005, 09:14
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holt
ID: 1181585
Thu, Sep 08, 2005, 18:55 "the only reasonable players to pick up of their own accord (not injury fill ins) are long gone outside of IDPs."
but I have reserve QB, WR's, and RB's.
the only thing I don't have in reserve is IDP's, K, and TE.
your argument that bye-weeks will chop me up is pure hog-wash. bye weeks don't present any more problem to me than anyone else. in fact, I'm probably more prepared for them than most.
I really don't care how you rate my draft or how high you think I'll finish. it's not that big a deal, but when you make statements that are inaccurate or have little to no basis in fact then I have little choice but to point it out.
44 culdeus
ID: 6722322
Thu, Sep 08, 2005, 19:12 Sigh, now I have to go open your roster again.
Ok, Duce may never get even 50% of the carries now. You couldn't have known that then, but I do now. I reserve the right to hold changes in status against people. The fact is he was still shaky in preseason prior to the pick. I don't see a single other RB that if was available in FA I would make a claim on and this knowing that Suggs (for me) has pretty much turned out to be a bust for me as well even prior to week 1.
As to WR backups the only guy I see with any sort of upside is Calico and that is if he comes back from major knee surgery with any sort of speed and Bennett regresses as well. I'll go ahead and call it right now; of your 4 backup WR at most 1 will be on your roster at the end of the year.
I stand by my breakdown of your backups. I don't think I needed DD to tell that. Honestly, it was one of the easist things to spot.
Cough..Cough...
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| 48 | Motley Crue
Dude
ID: 439372011
Thu, Nov 03, 2005, 11:07
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I haven't paid much attention to this league this year, but I just read through this thread. Some enetertaining stuff, but the best line by far:
I like my team and think it's greatest team in the universe and hope it will be referred to for years to come as "The Team".
I wished I had come up with that, holt. Good stuff.
Oh, and Clements sucks. I hate that guy. After convincing myself I had a wild steal when drafting him, he proceeds to play only cornerback (the nerve) and quit returning punts. Jerk. Sheesh.
[And Ender, if you read that, well... he helped you on your bye week. Clements and I just don't get along anymore. Maybe you'll have better luck with him.]
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| 49 | holt
ID: 231035221
Thu, Nov 03, 2005, 16:31
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yes - clements does suck - and I was so proud of him when I drafted him. I think he's getting 7.8 or something like that. not terrible but disappointing. Ratliff didn't work out either. Or McQuarters. Good db/returner is a very hard thing to come by.
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| 50 | Motley Crue
Dude
ID: 439372011
Thu, Nov 03, 2005, 16:37
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Yeah, thanks to the damn coaches wanting to keep their best DB's off return duty. What do they think these guys are, fragile little schoolgirls? They're football players, dammit. Let them play!
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| 51 | Hubble
ID: 0992417
Fri, Nov 04, 2005, 19:52
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That is why McGee is worth a ton :) and that is why i did spent my 8th rounder on him... and that is why i will probably do the same next year if i can...
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