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Subject: RIFC AAA#2 Post all rationales in this thread
Posted by: TD
- Leader [036331011] Mon, Aug 18, 2008, 23:41
Please post all rationales in this thread in any order. I will edit them into the proper order on the official rationale thread. We'll give this a shot sans placeholders.
This thread will be for managers in the 2008 RotoGuru Invitational Football Challenge AAA#2 to provide the rationale for each pick.
Here are the ground rules:
1. Only managers in this league should post here. If you want to provide feedback (either from other league managers, or from those not in the league), put it in the discussion thread. (Non-conforming discussion in this thread will be deleted.)
2.We'll attempt to keep this thread 2 rounds behind the actual draft. With the lag, most comments should not have an impact on the draft in progress. However, if there are aspects of your pick that you feel need to be kept under wraps, feel free to protect that information. In particular, please avoid mentioning the names of any players who are still undrafted at that time of the post.
If possible, please post your (2 round lagged) comments at the time you make each pick. For example, you should post your comments for your round 1 pick when you make your round 3 selection. When your post is ready, simply post it here in any order. I will handle the rest.
3. Once the draft is over, each manager is also encouraged to provide a general draft recap, at which time you can discuss your overall strategy, mention any undisclosed factors, comment on what worked out well and what didn't, etc.
Please use the following format:
1.01 Wilbert Montgomery, RB, PHIL
Several sentences of rationale.
As part of your first round rationale, please comment on your selection of draft sequence.
Many have found it useful to write the rationale prior to making the pick. This was first suggested by Guru a few years ago and I do it as often as I'm able. I've rationaled myself into and out of several picks. Not sure if it helps make better picks, but it does help you keep up with the rationales and they are easier to write as you go through the process of deciding on a particular pick.
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| 20 | The Beezer
ID: 31756616
Thu, Aug 21, 2008, 17:50
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6.02 Joey Galloway, WR, TB
I had Galloway higher on my draft board than Driver, but liked the chances of JG getting through just a bit more. The 37 year old was #2 in the NFL last year in YPC (behind some Santonio Holmes guy) and is the undisputed WR1 for the Bucs. I think he'll continue to churn our WR2 numbers this year and that's easily worth a seventh round pick. I didn't seriously look at any other players or positions for both this and the Driver pick.
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| 24 | The Beezer
Dude
ID: 191202817
Sat, Aug 23, 2008, 09:24
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7.13 Brian Urlacher, LB, CHI
IDP strategy in the RIFC leagues has improved considerably in the 5 years of competition - no longer can you wait until after the midpoint of the draft to start building out an effective IDP lineup. This is due to many reasons, such as:
- improved understanding of how schemes impact production, which means fewer sleepers in great opportunities get through to the late rounds
- more diligence during the season preventing easy picking of injury replacements
- better understanding of IDP value in this format due to experience
Last year, I was behind at this position, which along with the complete collapse of the St. Louis Rams offensive line led to a bad year for my squad. This year, I knew that as soon as more than 2-3 IDPs went off the board, I wanted to go after my top guys and get them to make this a strength of my team.
Urlacher has been a top LB for many years and looks like a lock to be a top 10 LB and could be even more. With the Bears' inept offense, the defense will be on the field a lot.
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| 25 | The Beezer
Dude
ID: 191202817
Sat, Aug 23, 2008, 09:31
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8.02 Ray Lewis, LB, BAL
I had Lewis slotted at around the same level as Urlacher, and as long as he can avoid serious injury he should be a top 10 guy for me. I was even happier that I went LB/LB after seeing 9 more go off the board before my next pick.
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| 26 | The Beezer
Dude
ID: 191202817
Sun, Aug 24, 2008, 14:09
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9.13 Reggie Brown, WR, PHI
I felt confident that the third LB I wanted to pick up would be there at 10.02, but I had less confidence about Brown making it by Frick since he still needed a third receiver. Therefore, I decided to pull the trigger here.
Brown's is expected to start week 1 despite his hamstring issues. With Curtis out, he will have the opportunity to live up to the flashes of potential he has shown. At this point of the draft, that's a gamble worth taking.
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| 27 | The Beezer
Dude
ID: 191202817
Sun, Aug 24, 2008, 14:18
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10.02 Keith Bulluck, LB, TEN
I was pleasantly surprised to see Bulluck slide down this far. He slipped a bit last season, and since he's on the wrong side of 30, it prompted the questions of whether it was an anomoly or a sign of the end.
I'm betting on anomaly, and if I'm right, this is a steal considering how many LBs were picked before him.
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| 28 | The Beezer
Dude
ID: 191202817
Sun, Aug 24, 2008, 19:35
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11.13 Justin Fargas, RB, OAK
It's not often that you can get an RB that ran for 1000 yards last year in the 11th round. Of course, there are circumstances in the form of a new savior in Oakland, so Fargas is back to where he started last season.
As an Arkansas alum, I want McFadden to have an Adrian Peterson-like season. If Fargas were to have a Chester Taylor-like season, that'd be a nice addition. Hopefully, Fargas will not be needed other than week 7.
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| 30 | The Beezer
ID: 31756616
Mon, Aug 25, 2008, 18:00
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12.02 Gary Brackett, LB, IND
I couldn't resist picking up one more every down LB and I didn't see any screaming pickups at the other positions after getting Fargas.
Brackett should put up solid LB2 numbers as my LB4, and he also has a different bye week than the other 3 so I will just need one LB bench spot to cover the gap.
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| 31 | The Beezer
ID: 31756616
Mon, Aug 25, 2008, 18:05
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13.13 Heath Miller, TE, PIT
I tend to usually get my TE pretty early, but with all the IDP pickups and the relative lack of differentiation on my board at the TE position outside a handful, I decided to let this slide.
Miller may end up blocking a bit more with the deteriorating Steeler O-line, but Big Ben does like to look for him in the red zone. While I don't expect him to be the #7 TE like he was last year, he should be a solid TE1 with a bit of upside potential.
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| 32 | The Beezer
ID: 31756616
Mon, Aug 25, 2008, 18:14
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14.02 Packers Defense, DT, GB
I've let defenses slide nearly to the end of the draft in the past because I didn't see any evidence that performance was predictable. This worked out well some years (2006 New England) but not well last year. Historically a lot of Ds go off the board about this time, so I wanted to get the defense rated second on my board before they vanished.
GB plays in a division with a bad quarterback (Min), bad rushing game (Det), and bad everything (Chi). They definitely have a lot of skilled players that can make big plays, so they can probably win me a game or two this year and still put up an average to good score every week.
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| 33 | The Beezer
ID: 31756616
Wed, Aug 27, 2008, 17:46
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15.13 Jeff Garcia, QB, TB
With Manning's lingering injury concerns, I wanted to get a QB2 that projected to be strong across the first 4 weeks of the season. Garcia fills the bill and should be able to provide replacement-level stats when necessary - I'm hoping just week 4 will be all I need.
Garcia and Edge were both on my first fantasy team in the RIFC leagues, so it's like a bit of a reunion here.
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| 34 | The Beezer
ID: 31756616
Wed, Aug 27, 2008, 17:52
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16.02 Ellis Hobbs, DB, NE
Guru said it best in his RIFC rationale - he's a starting DB that returns kickoffs. He should see more plays this year, so if he makes tackles that will up his value. And if he misses them, the other team will probably score and kick off to him, so that also ups his value.
DBs tend to fluctuate a lot so that's why I didn't worry about drafting one until now - if Hobbs (or Bailey) aren't bringing it, there's usually someone on the wire that is.
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| 35 | The Beezer
Dude
ID: 191202817
Wed, Aug 27, 2008, 22:21
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17.13 Kenny Watson, RB, CIN
Watson had a pretty decent year last year, and with Rudi's decline and Chris "PUP" Perry on the roster, Watson could end up with a larger-than-expected role. Then again, maybe not. But what more can you expect in the 19th round?
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| 36 | The Beezer
Dude
ID: 191202817
Sun, Aug 31, 2008, 08:28
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18.02 Champ Bailey, DB, DEN
I couldn't pass up taking Champ in this spot as I think his interception count will bounce back most of the way this year. When playing IDP scoring, it's too often the case that you end up starting someone in a great situation who isn't necessarily that good of a player, so it's nice to take a guy who should perform and who could be a potential HoF corner.
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| 37 | The Beezer
Dude
ID: 191202817
Sun, Aug 31, 2008, 08:32
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19.13 Stephen Gostkowski, PK, NE
Kickers are unpredictable and the RIFC leagues rightly wait until near the end of the draft to pick them. Having said that, my top choice was on the board and I didn't really have any other players that jumped out at me, so I figured locking this down now was my best move.
Gostkowski kicked a ton of extra points last year and did a good job for me on multiple teams, so it's nice to have him back. The Patriot offense may decline slightly but he should still have ample opportunity to put points on the board every week.
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| 38 | The Beezer
Dude
ID: 191202817
Sun, Aug 31, 2008, 08:35
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20.02 Kyle Vanden Bosch, DL, TEN
I had Vanden Bosch in my overall top 5 at DL and I figured he would last a while, so I wasn't desperate to fill this starting position before now. The Titan defense has a lot of guys considered among the best at their positions, which helps them all out when it comes to reducing double teams. As long as he stays healthy, he should be a consistent performer for me.
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| 39 | The Beezer
Dude
ID: 191202817
Sun, Aug 31, 2008, 08:39
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21.13 Justin Gage, WR, TEN
While Gage isn't going to set the world on fire, he does seem to be a solid performer who I can toss into the lineup if everything else goes to pot and get a few points. He's my WR5 so hopefully his primary role is keep the bench warm.
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| 40 | The Beezer
Dude
ID: 191202817
Sun, Aug 31, 2008, 08:57
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22.02 Cardinals Defense, DT, AZ
The Cards have a late bye, a decent matchup when the Packers have their bye week, and a lot of games against teams with lousy offenses. Plus I actually think they're going to be a productive defense on top of that.
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| 41 | The Beezer
Dude
ID: 191202817
Sun, Aug 31, 2008, 09:00
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23.13 Randy McMichael, TE, STL
I had McMichael in my top 14 TEs, and as was pointed out in another rationale, someone has to catch all the balls that Holt and Jackson don't. He should be another guy that I can plug in reliably for a few points when I need them.
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| 42 | The Beezer
Dude
ID: 191202817
Sun, Aug 31, 2008, 09:03
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24.02 Matt Wilhelm, LB, SD
Wilhelm's bye is on a different week than my first 4 LB picks, so he can fill in for each of them as needed. With Merriman's announcement that he will play through his injury, it could bode good things for Wilhelm's share of the tackles and other plays. This may be the first year that my 24th round pick lasts until week 1 in my lineup.
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| 47 | GoatLocker
Leader
ID: 060151121
Mon, Sep 01, 2008, 12:18
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6.12 Ted Ginn, Jr, WR, MIA
On most draft sheets would be ranked much lower, but fits well in here due to his returner duties.
Expect a lot more from him this year than what we saw last year.
Was real torn with this pick between Ginn and Hester.
Ginn is the better receiver, and decided to go with him and then hope that I could possibly take Hester on the wrap-around.
Which didn't happen, but that is okay.
Is a burner and has the ability to really fit in and work well in the position he finds himself for the Fins.
And the addition of Pennington as the starter is not going to hurt him.
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| 49 | GoatLocker
Leader
ID: 060151121
Mon, Sep 01, 2008, 12:22
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7.03 Anthony Gonzalez, WR, IND
Hester being gone made me take a quick look at which WR I wanted to go to next, and had no issues at all with going to Gonzalez.
Feel just fine with this choice and expect him to have a good season based on what he showed last season.
Do expect that he will be somewhere in the 10+ range TD wise and does have a chance to put up an even better number.
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| 51 | wiggs
ID: 356191618
Mon, Sep 01, 2008, 12:31
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6.13 Chris Johnson RB Tenn
Not a huge fan of this pick at this time. I really think he could pan out if Lendale White struggles at all. I have seen big things with him on ESPN and heard great things about him on the radio.
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| 52 | GoatLocker
Leader
ID: 060151121
Mon, Sep 01, 2008, 12:33
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8.12 Paul Posluszny, LB, BUF
There will always be IDPs that step up and perform better than anybody thought they would.
But, since we went to 6 IDPs, feel they real need to fit into the drafting plan and felt it was time to go out and get 2 upper tier LBs with these next 2 picks.
I see him as still in good position to have a big year.
I know a lot of people have really dropped him down their draft sheets, but I'm just very content to take him in this round.
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| 53 | wiggs
ID: 356191618
Mon, Sep 01, 2008, 12:34
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7.02 Dallas Clark TE Ind
I like Clark here alot, i really wanted Witten, but that was not going to happen. Clark almost seems like a WR in the Indy offense.
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| 54 | wiggs
ID: 356191618
Mon, Sep 01, 2008, 12:35
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8.13 Lofa Tatupu LB Sea
I didnt see anyone here offensively that I really wanted with this pick, therefore I just went with what i think is the best available point scorer. Tatupu seems like a total stud in a strong Seattle Defense.
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| 55 | wiggs
ID: 356191618
Mon, Sep 01, 2008, 12:37
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9.02 Felix Jones RB Dal
This is my 1st homer pick of the draft. I had no Cowboys to this point and and took a flyer on a rookie cowboy. Could be huge could be a poor decision. I really dont like having 2 rookie RBs in the 1st 9 rounds
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| 56 | GoatLocker
Leader
ID: 060151121
Mon, Sep 01, 2008, 13:12
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9.03 Kirk Morrison, LB, OAK
I'm real happy to get him in this slot.
Really expect a big season from him to follow up last year.
96 Tackles last year and 5 Take Aways and expect even more this year.
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| 57 | GoatLocker
Leader
ID: 060151121
Mon, Sep 01, 2008, 13:19
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10.12 Tony Scheffler, TE, DEN
There were already 8 TEs off of the board.
Not really sure how happy I'll be later with this choice, but the potential is there.
Of course, probably would feel better if he was the #1 on the Depth Chart.
Not real sure he'll be the #2, but time will tell and hopefully I'll get enough from him to keep me happy.
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| 58 | GoatLocker
Leader
ID: 060151121
Mon, Sep 01, 2008, 13:22
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11.03 Mike Peterson, LB, JAX
Wasn't really 100% sure where I wanted to go with this pick.
But, once I realized that there was still a LB left that I had ranked in the top 10, decided that the move made sense.
This also gave me 3 LBs that I had all of them ranked in the top 10.
Of course, last time I drafted Mike, he lasted all of two weeks on my team.
So, once again, only time will tell.
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