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Subject: RIFC #AAA2 Draft Rationales #2 - rounds 7-12
Posted by: wolfer
- [207522420] Fri, Aug 28, 2009, 11:05
Please post them here. Remember to post all 6 rationales in the same post. |
| 1 | Slizz
ID: 557152814
Sat, Aug 29, 2009, 23:50
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7.03 – Percy Harvin, WR, MIN - I admit it, this pick was a total reach, but I didn’t want to chance him not coming back to me in the 8th round. Could I have played it safe and went with Torry Holt? Yes. But after reading countless articles on how good he has looked in training camp and the expected impact he is slated to have, I couldn’t pass it up! Given the fact he will be returning kicks and that he is the teams #2 option, I figure why not? Rotoworld sums it up best: “The easy choice as the rookie with biggest impact, Harvin's playmaking talent is undeniable. The only questions revolved around his offensive role and how often Brad Childress and Darrell Bevell were willing to put the ball in his hands. The answers: Harvin will start immediately, playing in both the slot and the backfield. Chilly has made it clear that the rookie will be force-fed the ball on a weekly basis as the team's second-most important offensive weapon. It's fair to expect 45-50 catches and at least many rushing attempts while Harvin establishes himself as a weekly option for fantasy leaguers.” 8.12 – Kellen Winslow, TE - While many might consider the TE position to be exceptionally deep for fantasy football than other years, I feel that there is a drop-off after the top 10 (Carlson) and didn’t want to risk waiting until the 10th round (10.12) to land mine. Sure, the Visanthe Shiancoes & Dustin Kellers of the world will have their weeks, but consistency matters, and Winslow gives me that. How will he do in Tampa? My guess is 850 yards and 6-8 TD’s sounds well within reason for the “soldier”. 9.03 – Lance Briggs, LB, CHI - This was a tough pick for me because I A) I needed an IDP and B) there were 3 (DeMeco Ryans and Jerod Mayo) so closely ranked that I didn’t know who to go with. While I knew that DeMeco Ryans wasn’t going to fall to me in the 10th, I was hoping Mayo would! Briggs is a lock for 90-100 tackles and is arguably the best pass-defending LB in the NFL. Here’s to hoping he continues that trend. 10.12 – Chicago Bears Defense - Probably should have gone with the Chargers Defense as their preseason ranking warrants a selection over Chicago. However, the projection system I utilize has the Bears finishing about the same with San Diego, given that, the Bears or Bear players always get precedence. 11.03 – EJ Henderson, LB, MIN - Tackling Machine. Has been since that way since Maryland. Henderson should get plenty of cheapo tackles as a benefit from playing behind the Williams Wall and will end up as a top 20 LB…I can live with that! 12.12 – Laveranues Coles, WR, CIN - Wow. Didn’t expect to get him here. I was just looking for best WR available as I was pretty thin in that department (Currently Harvin is my flex). Getting Coles helps give me an option that I can flex (in case my high risk pick of Harvin doesn’t work out) and, perhaps, even start if he and Carson really click. A win/win situation for me.
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| 2 | The Beezer
Dude
ID: 191202817
Sun, Aug 30, 2009, 15:17
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7.07 – David Garrard, QB, JAX
With Moss going early this round and my other target, Donald Brown, vanishing 1 pick in front of me, I had to scramble to find who I wanted next. No one’s really jumping out at me as a clear pick, so I went through each position and asked myself, “which player off this list would I be upset the most if they get picked the pick after mine?” When I did this, the only name that came up as someone that could reasonably be picked in the next 2 rounds is Garrard.
Garrard is the 13th QB picked in this draft. Last year, with the lousy O-line and an absolute joke of a receiving corp, he finished ranked #11 in QBs. This year, he’s got an upgraded line and some new guy at WR that should be an upgrade. I say he finishes in the top 10, and his being underrated is why I’ve been comfortable leaving my QB slot unfilled until now.
8.08 – Torry Holt, WR, JAX
The decision here was between 2 players – Holt and Earnest Graham. The dilemma around choosing Graham for me is pretty simple – I get Ward’s backup but then I don’t have a true backup if LDT misses any time. I also feel more confident in my ability to find value at RB off the wire once the season starts than at WR. With Holt, I have 4 WRs that I can feel comfortable starting every week and can use my picks in the next few rounds at other positions. That gives me more freedom in taking the best available player, which is how I prefer to operate.
9.07 – Fred Jackson, RB, BUF
I definitely wanted an RB here and would have taken Graham if he were still available. Since there are negative reports in Tampa that indicate that Ward may be in a deteriorated situation at the start of the season, I wanted to get someone who can start strong and that will still contribute even if their situation doesn’t improve. With Lynch out the first three games, Fred Jackson is almost certain to get heavy workload in the first 3 weeks, and he’s proven that he can be better than an average backup scoring wise even after that if Lynch fully takes the #1 job back. While not ideal, I think he can at least keep me from giving up a lot of points to the field during bye weeks if I can’t find a diamond in the rough.
10.08 – Matt Cassel, QB, KC
As confident as I am in Garrard, QB is definitely my weakest position currently among the major offensive positions, so it was worthwhile to grab a good second QB while the pool is good. Cassel will probably spend a lot of time running for his life, but I expect that he should be a solid performer as the Chiefs face a lot of bad defenses and will likely be playing from behind a lot to boot. With this pick, I feel like my offense is solid and it’s now time to focus most of the attention for the next 10 rounds on the defensive side of the ball.
11.07 – Mario Williams, DL, HOU
No less an authority than Guru himself summarized the benefits of choosing Mario much earlier than DLs typically go – he’s a strong candidate to be #1 by several points over the field, he has a high floor barring an unanticipated injury, and with his week 10 bye, I can afford to pass on carrying a backup until over half the season is complete. My top LB and DB picks, as well as my other sleepers should still be there next round so pulling the trigger on Mario was appropriate given that another DL (Allen) has already been picked.
12.08 – D.J. Williams, LB, DEN
I don’t know that I’ve picked someone with the last name of Williams (which I share) every draft, but it definitely seems like it. I definitely have never done it on 2 straight picks, but D.J. is a top-5 talent on a defense with a bunch of turnstiles all around him, so I expect to see him putting up double-digits more often than not. Barring unexpected injury, he’s at worst at the bottom of LB1 at the end of the year.
Halftime report:
Ward’s outlook continues to drop and RB2 is definitely the weakest point on my team. I’m not really sure what I would have done in round 4 differently, even knowing what I know now, as the guys that went after him don’t excite me either. Getting Jackson buys me 3 weeks to get a long-term solution either via trade, the waiver wire, or by Ward taking the starting spot in TB by force. I’m comfortable with this for now but it’s not ideal by any stretch.
I feel like I have the other key spots on my team nailed down, particularly WR and TE. While my QBs aren’t elite, I think together they add up to a top-5 guy if I play it right, and I’m definitely glad that I skipped the early QB run as I think that worked out in my favor. As overall draft ability has increased in fantasy football, it’s become less of a determinant of overall success as teams tend to be more even than they were when I started playing in the mid-90s. So far, I feel I have the best team (which I always feel like in every draft I do) but furthermore, I think I have a good team even if my crystal ball is really warped.
Looking at the other teams, I don’t see any dominant teams out there. Several team strike me as having a great foundation: Promize, GoatLocker, Kyle, and Valkyrie have the teams I am most impressed with so far.
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| 3 | Frick
ID: 4945458
Sun, Aug 30, 2009, 15:38
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7.14 Jerious Norwood RB, ATL
Norwood's value with rely on Michael Turner, but with Turner having to deal with the curse of 370, I hope Norwood gets plenty of touches, plus he will also be returning kicks when he is RB2 for the Falcons.
8.01 Ted Ginn WR, MIA
Ginn is entering his 3rd year and after a decent first 2 years, I hope for him to have a break-out 3rd year. He's not a top tier WR, but is good enough to be a WR2 for my team.
9.14 Josh Wilson DB, SEA
I picked Wilson for his kick returning more than his DB points. He was one of the top IDPs last year when you add in return points. He got an additional boost due to getting some starts in the Seattle backfield last year, which he won't get this year, but he should be the NDB. Plus DB is one of the hardest spots to get consistent points from, so I'm happy with Wilson as my starting DB, provided he keeps the KR job.
10.01 Josh Cribbs WR, CLE
Another player picked for his KR skills, noticing a trend yet? Rumors are that the Browns want to get Cribbs more involved in the offense, which could really increase his value, or could detract from his return points. We'll see.
11.14 Ray Lewis LB, BAL
If Ray produces like he did last year I'll be extremely happy with this pick. Lewis generates huge tackling numbers, but missing time to an injury is a concern.
12.01 Philadelphia D
I might have been early here, but knowing that every other team will pick twice before I pick again I decided to get one of the units that should be in the top tier at the end of the year. The loss of their DC could be a big factor, especially if they struggle through the year.
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| 4 | jseth333
Dude
ID: 24100310
Mon, Aug 31, 2009, 08:54
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7.06 Donald Brown, RB, IND
Have been hearing nothing but good things about his progress
and the plans to use him during the regular season. With the
fragility of Addai could easily see him become a big part of the
offense.
8.09 LenDale White, RB, TEN
Who knew losing 30 pounds could be so easy? Was not planning
on taking another RB here but he just stood out to me as
someone who should have been taken earlier. Should get plenty
of touches and touchdowns even with Chris.
9.06 Domenik Hixon, WR, NYG
The quarterback has to throw to someone? Suffering from the
drops but seems to be still in good favor.
10.09 Jerod Mayo, LB, NWE
Reports are that New England is going to loosen things up a little
this year allowing Jerod to blitz more and be more of a ball
hawk. Hopefully adds up to a strong IDP season.
11.06 Josh Morgan, WR, SFO
Not happy with my wr's in light of Brandon's suspension --
assume that will be worked out but hopefully some combo can
work out.
12.09 Brent Celek, TE, PHI
Decided not to wait any more for a TE - reports are that he is
expected to be a big part of the offense - let's hope so.
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| 5 | Kyle
Sustainer
ID: 052753312
Mon, Aug 31, 2009, 13:00
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7.12 Julius Jones, RB, SEA
He was the best RB left on the board, and one of the highest ranked players on my list. I was surprised that a potential 1000 yard back was on the board, and even though he won't get many TDs, he'll get the ball a lot. He'll be a great bye week fill in until I saw he has the same bye as Knowshon, but if either of my backs go down for a little while, then I'll have a solid backup to stand in for them.
8.03 Greg Olsen, TE, CHI
I love Olsen's potential with Cutler at the helm. I'm a big fan of pairing my QB with their #1 receiver and Olsen is just that. He'll have a great opportunity to get redzone passes, since the Bears don't have a go to WR and he could have a Tony Gonzalez like season. 800 yards and 6 TDs are my expectations, but my dream is 1000 yards and 10 TDs.
9.12 Donald Driver, WR, GB
He's the #2 WR in GB, but really I see him as 1B. They could very well put up nearly identical numbers and I could see 900-1000 yards. 6 or 7 TDs are my expectation, but who knows since Grant really doesn't have the ability to put the ball in the endzone.
10.03 Oshiomogho Atogwe, DB, STL
I made this pick while walking through a downtown Boston marketplace. Imagine the frustration I had trying to spell his name on my phone. As I said I love tackle machines, and without much of a LB crew or a runstopping DT, OJ could have a monster 120 tackle season from the DB spot. Throw in 6 or 7 INTs, a potential TD and you've got yourself a NICE season.
11.12 San Diego Chargers, DEF, SD
There was a run of team defenses and it always comes before I expect it. This was the 4th defense on my board and the 6th off the board. I fully expect them to produce up to '07 numbers now that Merriman is back. They really didn't lose anything so this should be a solid group again. Honestly, a defense is a defense, and I'm kind of thinking I should have waited, but I like to get the best on the board when a runs going, and this didn't seem like to horrible of a reach for me.
12.03 Kirk Morrison, LB, OAK
Best LB on my board and #6 on my rankings. I feel like Oakland's going to be on the field a lot and the MLB usually gets a ton of tackles when that happens. He's had some pretty good seasons and should continue to produce tackles, sacks and maybe an INT or 2. Can't say I was overly excited about a team defense in this spot. :)
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| 6 | Nerfherders
ID: 310111515
Mon, Aug 31, 2009, 13:34
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7.09 Hines Ward, WR, PIT
The 7th round in this league is always that transition round where you can go in very many different way. I needed a WR 3 and Hines Ward really can't get much better at that spot. He's slowing down a little bit but he's still a favorite target and will get his yards and TD's.
8.06 Demarcus Ware, LB, DAL
I wanted another LB here and I wasn't too pleased with the names until I saw Ware available. He is a special player and maybe wont get as many sacks, but should improve all other aspects of his game. It's an idea that you draft the talent and hope the numbers will follow.
9.09 Chad Pennington, QB, MIA
It was time finally to pick a QB. I wanted one in the 4th or 5th but they were all taken amazingly early, so I waited. And waited. But I could not pass up on Chad here, as he is as good as it gets and seems to be fully healthy this year. I suspect he will put up similar numbers to last year, in which he was a top 5 QB.
10.06 Yeremiah Bell, DB, MIA
Bell was a tackle machine last year and that is what I like to see out of a DB. He will have a similar position this year and will have an opportunity to make plays.
11.09 Eli Manning, QB, NYG
The younger Manning may not be as consistent as his older brother, but he is still good, and in fact probably a little underrated in fantasy. Considering how long I waited to grab my first QB, I figured I would make it a two-headed position and try to play matchups. Besides, Pennington isn't the healthiest of QB's, and Manning is a horse.
12.06 Miami Dolphins, DEF
The first time I was thwarted in this draft, as I really wanted the Eagles. But the Dolphins will be good this year. All their young players are a year more experienced and they have Jason Taylor back.
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| 7 | wolfer
ID: 437552820
Mon, Aug 31, 2009, 13:40
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7.11 Jonathan Stewart, RB, Car
He scored 10 times last year, despite having less than 200 carries. He will be a bigger part of the Carolina offense this year.
8.04 Tennessee Titans
Since it would be another 28 picks for me to pick again, I wanted to pick up a D in this spot. Every ranking I looked at showed Tennessee as a top 10 D, even though they lost Albert Haynesworth to the Redskins.
9.11 Matt Hasselbeck, QB, Sea
This is the year 2009, right? Hasselbeck went to the Pro Bowl in 2003, 2005, 2007 (every other year.) If form holds, this should be another Pro Bowl year.
10.04 Fred Taylor, RB, NE
Perhaps one of the most underrated running backs ever. This is another running back that fits the mold of the Patroits. A vetran that goes into there and hopes for suceess.
11.11 Chris Gamble, DB Carolina
I went off last years numbers. If he repeats those numbers, I will be ok with that.
12.04 Kevin Curtis, WR, Phil
I was trying to find another reciever in this spot that would at least start the season as a starter. Curtis fits the bill here as long as he does not get beat out by the Eagles 1st round selection.
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| 8 | Valkyrie
Dude
ID: 47042413
Wed, Sep 02, 2009, 17:31
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7.13 Derrick Mason- WR Balt
Not ecstatic with this pik, but i ambehind on WR and defense and needed a "safe" WR that would give me some production- expecting 60-70 catches and 800 yardsfrom the unretired Mason as Balt's #1.
8.02 NYGiants- Defense
I think Team defense is very under rated in RG leagues and so I am happy to pick the number 2 defense a little early
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| 9 | Valkyrie
Dude
ID: 47042413
Wed, Sep 02, 2009, 17:34
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9.13 Steve Smith- WR NYG
Again I need a WR- hoping Smith will step up as the Giants #1 but even if he stays as the slot receiver I'll at least get some production.
10.2 London Fletcher- MLB Wash
I think Fletcher is an underrated LB in a 4-3
in a running conference with Haynesworth taking a double team in front of him. I look for a lot of cheap tackles
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| 10 | Valkyrie
Dude
ID: 47042413
Wed, Sep 02, 2009, 17:37
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11.13 Shockey- TE - NO
Hopefully a value pick here. The guy has talent and can't be too bad in a passing sheme at NO.
12.03 Laurinitas MLB- STL
This guy has the opportunity to make a ton of tackles on a bad but agressive defense. Besdies with so many teams going 3-4 I have a thing for 4-3 MLB ers.
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