| 0 |
Subject: Blackjack - holding on 16
Posted by: JeffG
- Leader [1584348] Wed, Mar 30, 2005, 16:27
I need help from the gurupie community. A buddy of mine is off to Vegas in less than 48 hours for a 4-day weekend. I just learned this morning that he ALWAYS stands on 16 in blackjack. I have spent time today trying to explain why this is not a good play in math terms, logic, and general anecdotal analagies.
I have pointed out web sites like this one or this one which give good arguments with data to back it up.
Please help. |
| 1 | JeffG
Leader
ID: 1584348
Wed, Mar 30, 2005, 16:28
|
More info I passed to him..
Here is a fact…
Standing on 16 vs a 7 will lose you $0.48 for each dollar bet.
Hitting on 16 vs a 7 will lose you $0.40 for each dollar bet.
Math shows the actual win percentage for either strategy is roughly the same (26% vs 27%), but if you factor in a 7% chance when you hit the hand ends in a push your expected return is much greater. Source
Standing on 16 vs 10 or picture will lose you $0.52 for each dollar bet
Hitting on a 16 vs 10 or picture will lose you $0.48 for each dollar bet
In this scenario, your win percentage actually goes down slightly by hitting (21% instead of 21.5%) but the chance of pushing 5% of the time makes this a better play. Source
|
| 2 | ChicagoTRS
ID: 122532215
Wed, Mar 30, 2005, 16:39
|
Blackjack is all math...just a matter of downloading one of the many charts and there is math behind them to back them up. Always standing on 16 will certainly lose more money in the long run.
The simple rule with 16 is to stand if the dealer shows 2,3,4,5,6 hit is the dealer shows 7,8,9,10,A. Always split 8s(16).
|
| 3 | leggestand
Leader
ID: 451036518
Wed, Mar 30, 2005, 16:43
|
I always stand on 16. I surrender if I have 16 versus 9, 10, or A, so, really I only stand on 16 when the dealer has a 2-8 upcard.
|
| 4 | wiggs
Donor
ID: 04991311
Wed, Mar 30, 2005, 16:44
|
Chicago said that just about perfect. I have been playing blackjack at the casinos for about 5 years and I go home a winner a lot more then I go home a loser using that philosophy.
|
| 5 | ChicagoTRS
ID: 122532215
Wed, Mar 30, 2005, 16:53
|
The correct strategy to play 16 if surrender is allowed is to...stand on 2,3,4,5,6...hit on 7,8...surrender vs 9,10,A.
Only other times to use surrender is:
15 vs 10,A
17 vs A
8,8 vs A
Playing it any other way and you are going against the odds. I use to play Blackjack a lot but eventually learned in the long run you are going to lose no matter how well you play. Plus the game is boring...really no thought...you are just a robot making the right plays.
Tell your friend to learn to play Texas Hold'em...that is the one game in the casino that can consistently be beat...because you are beating other players not the house (well really you have to beat the rake which at times can be a tought thing depending on how much they are taking...at high rake tables I have seen an entire table of losers as the house/rake was beating all of them)
|
| 6 | poeman316
ID: 152543015
Wed, Mar 30, 2005, 16:54
|
According to the mathematical statistics you sited from the website, and given the fact that we are playing for the streaks, it's pretty much a push.
You also have to take into consideration that if you stand on 16, you get to figure into your odds the slight chance that the dealer will bust. If you take a hit and bust first, these very slight percentage points become a mute point, as the dealer has already taken your chips and placed them into his tray...
In addition, on those occasions where you stand on 16 and the dealer does bust...you look pretty slick...as opposed to busting yourself out before forcing the dealer's hand, like every other chump out there mindlessly playing "the stat card". That's got to be worth .02 points at least!
Bottom line...don't beat yourself! Make the dealer beat you... (there's a joke in there somewhere).
Second point. The house holds an advantage at each and every game in the casino. That's why these multi-billion $$ monstrosities continue to rise from the desert sands. That's why gamblers play hunches...by emotion and feeling, looking for whatever tips the scale in our favor for those briefest of moments...and generally sends us home empty handed, licking our wounds...saving our $$ until we can return again...
|
| 7 | wiggs
Donor
ID: 04991311
Wed, Mar 30, 2005, 17:02
|
alot of casinos I play at do not allow you to surrender, but if they did then I would surrender a 16 to anything 7 or higher.
|
| 8 | ChicagoTRS
ID: 122532215
Wed, Mar 30, 2005, 17:03
|
The only games that can be beat consistently in a casino are Poker and the Sports Book.
Those are the only two games where professionals exist. People actually make a living playing those games.
Very few people make a living betting on sports but there are a select few that are good enough...it is very tough to beat the vig.
There are MANY people who make a living playing poker. The beauty of the game is you just have to be a better player than the rest of the schmucks at the table...play poker enough and have enough aptitude for the game and you will quickly realize that it is not that difficult to be a consistent winner.
The only other game that could be considered beatable is blackjack if you are a card counter but card counting is frowned upon and will get you 86-ed from the casino. Even if you are a very good card counter you are only pushing your advantage vs the house up a few percent...I think a good poker player has much higher edge.
|
| 9 | biliruben
Leader
ID: 589301110
Wed, Mar 30, 2005, 17:28
|
If you are good counter, and the deck is strongly positive (lots of 10s left), then it makes sense to stay on 16.
At the penny-ante houses around Seattle, you can get away with counting, though the two-deck shoes are hard to find, and it is some serious work to count on a 6-deck shoe.
Vegas, you would probably get tossed if you over-stayed your welcome on a high-stakes table.
|
| 10 | culdeus
ID: 492152212
Wed, Mar 30, 2005, 17:56
|
Why not surrender?
|
| 11 | MadAndRabidDOG
ID: 412552721
Wed, Mar 30, 2005, 20:00
|
Chicago I believe there are people making livings playing horses and greyhounds also.
But the takeout is tough. You really have to know what you are doing.
|
| 12 | GoatLocker
ID: 427272213
Wed, Mar 30, 2005, 22:23
|
Chicago called it right in 2 and 5, but Bili makes a very good point in 9.
Bili's comment is even stronger if you are playing heads up with the dealer.
For the avg person who goes to Vegas or wherever once a year, doing what Chicago said is the right thing to do.
You can count and not get run, but you have to do it smart.
You'd be amazed at how many times I have been one on one with the dealer. Seen the deck go very, very rich and suddenly had two or three people sit down.
They watch the table and when it goes rich they hit it.
Not enough to get them run though.
Don't go as much as I used to, but for years, it was not uncommon to be there every other weekend.
MARD is right with his comment, but it is real hard to make a living in those two areas. Yet, I do know quite a few people who do it with the ponies.
But, you really have to stick to your guns and make the right bets. Patience is truly a virtue and you have to be willing to sit all day and only bet one race.
You have to really spend a lot of time watching every single race and taking good notes. Also pays to keep a list of horses you are waiting on to run again. You have to know the jockey's and know the trainers.
And the old adage that it takes money to make money is very true here, but more so based on betting the odds. If you see a horse that you handicap at 3-2 and he is overlayed to 4-1 or 9-2, you need to bet him and bet him hard. That is where there is money to be made.
Likewise, if there is a morning line favorite who was 5-2 and is bet down to even money, stay far, far away.
Played the ponies for a long, long time, but when my racing buddy passed away, I ended up not spending as much time. Real hard to beat the ponies if your not putting a lot of time into them.
Cliff
|
| 13 | MadAndRabidDOG
ID: 412552721
Thu, Mar 31, 2005, 21:14
|
Goat, I don't think you have to watch every race. It does help though if you can see what kind of trouble the horse got into or what the jockey was doing with him. Just like Wild Desert the other day in the Lands End Stakes, if you know something about handicapping you can spot a horse that's going to run just by looking at the Racing Form. I don't think Andy Beyer even watches every horse race. He just relies on the Speed Figures he developed.
I had a real strong feeling about that horse the other day and he did run, but he just came up a 1/2 length short.
You are right that you have to be patient and you can't bet every race. Not if you want to make a profit. If you're just looking for action then go ahead and bet every race but make sure you at least break even when you go home.
|
| 14 | MadAndRabidDOG
ID: 412552721
Thu, Mar 31, 2005, 21:16
|
And actually the horse that won the Lands End interfered with Wild Desert in the stretch. The jockey did an objection but the stewards didn't allow it.
Wild Desert passed the winning horse a little past the finish line.
|
| 15 | MadAndRabidDOG
ID: 412552721
Thu, Mar 31, 2005, 21:19
|
And you're also right about OVERLAYS. They are the key to any type of gambling on a long term basis. You have to have an advantage in order to make money. That's in ANY gambling game.
|
| 16 | GoatLocker
Sustainer
ID: 060151121
Fri, Apr 01, 2005, 09:11
|
If Beyer is looking at bet big bucks on a horse, I guarantee you that he goes to the video archive and watches xx number of races of the horse he is interested in.
I agree I can look at the form and get a good feel, but if I'm thinking about putting $500 on a horse to win, I want to see the last 5 races or so.
The problem with objections is, that if a bug boy lodges an objections against Gary Stevens, unless it is beyond obvious, the Stewards will never change it.
Cliff
|
| 17 | culdeus
ID: 492152212
Tue, Apr 12, 2005, 09:01
|
TIVO Alert
History Channel airing a special "Breaking Vegas" about the Hyland BJ team.
|
|
|
|
Post a reply to this message: (But first, how about checking out this sponsor?)
|
|