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Subject: 8 MAR 02 Price Movers
Posted by: I_AM_CANADIAN
- [57031710] Fri, Mar 08, 2002, 12:12
| Prices updated on: Friday, 3/8 | Gainers
| Player | Change | | Gagne, Simon | + 120,000 | | Iginla, Jarome | + 100,000 | | Conroy, Craig | + 80,000 | | Roenick, Jeremy | + 70,000 | | Turco, Marty | + 50,000 | | Hrdina, Jan | + 50,000 | | Burke, Sean | + 40,000 | | Boucher, Brian | + 40,000 | | Aucoin, Adrian | + 40,000 | | Lindros, Eric | + 40,000 | | Kovalev, Alexei | + 30,000 | | Yashin, Alexei | + 30,000 | | Kapanen, Sami | + 30,000 | | Jagr, Jaromir | + 20,000 | | Lalime, Patrick | + 20,000 | | Losers
| Player | Change | | Murray, Glen | -100,000 | | Stumpel, Jozef | -60,000 | | Sundin, Mats | -40,000 | | Morozov, Aleksey | -40,000 | | Sakic, Joe | -30,000 | | Roy, Patrick | -30,000 | | Fernandez, Manny | -30,000 | | Forsberg, Peter | -30,000 | | Sykora, Petr | -30,000 | | Modano, Mike | -30,000 | | Audette, Donald | -30,000 | | Straka, Martin | -30,000 | | Alfredsson, Daniel | -30,000 | | Garon, Mathieu | -30,000 | | Vokoun, Tomas | -30,000 | | |
| 1 | KrazyKoalaBears
Donor
ID: 266182910
Fri, Mar 08, 2002, 12:30
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I wonder if TSN has checked their repricing algorithm lately...
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| 2 | C.SuperFreak
ID: 589291221
Fri, Mar 08, 2002, 12:40
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c'mon KKB you should know better, it's gravity. ;)
In 2 weeks I've made just under 3 mill and not even going for cash.
Also interesting to note that my division leaders have really burned up their trades and made little or no headway in the standings.
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| 3 | KrazyKoalaBears
Donor
ID: 266182910
Fri, Mar 08, 2002, 12:49
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I know it's Gravity, but where are all the losers for all the buyers? Manny Fernandez is the beginning of the Gravity losers (yes, I do suspect that Modano is now in Gravity after his huge selloff), so that leaves $300k worth of "big" losers and $760k worth of "big" gainers for a difference of $460k. Now I know the numbers shouldn't matchup, but they're usually a LOT closer than that. For instance, the last time the Price Movers looked "normal", there was $470k+ worth of "big" losers and $710k worth of "big" gainers. A difference of only $240k, or almost half of today's differential. It's just very, VERY strange at this point in the season given all the trades between yesterday and today with the trade refresh. That is usually the time where there are little to no Gravity losers appearing on the Losers list.
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| 4 | Chitown
ID: 46932214
Fri, Mar 08, 2002, 13:00
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KKB it looks as if their calculations may be reversed. If I remember and from your example loser $$$'s should be higher than gainer $$$'s every time.
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| 5 | The Left Wings
ID: 760719
Fri, Mar 08, 2002, 13:32
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It does look weird. When's the last time before this past week we have 7 gravity losers on the list?
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| 6 | KrazyKoalaBears
Donor
ID: 266182910
Fri, Mar 08, 2002, 13:40
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Chitown, it's not neccessarily that Losers (excluding Gravity players) should be more than Gainers or vice versa. It's just that the numbers should be somewhat close. Almost $500k difference says to me that something is wrong. Especially when there are so few large losers on a Friday, just a day after trades were refreshed.
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| 7 | Chitown
ID: 46932214
Fri, Mar 08, 2002, 13:41
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I looked at 5 random examples and found similar $$$'s for gainers and lossers on three and loser $$$'s higher on two. Could it be day trading and/or differential picks skewing the $$$'s?
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| 8 | KrazyKoalaBears
Donor
ID: 266182910
Fri, Mar 08, 2002, 14:03
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Chitown, the question is, how close were the numbers if they were different (excluding yesterday since it had a similar problem)? They're never going to match up exactly. But just look at the Wingers. $300k worth of gainers, but only $140k of losers. $270k worth of C gainers and $130k worth of losers. $150k of G gainers and only $30k of losers (assuming Roy didn't hit Gravity today). It just doesn't make sense. At this point in the season, rosters begin looking more and more similar, especially with the lemmings. To get price changes like this, the sells would have to be WIDELY dispersed with a VERY concentrated set of buys. That's just usually not the case at this point in the season.
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| 9 | Perm Dude
Leader
ID: 46132213
Fri, Mar 08, 2002, 14:08
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KKB, I think you're right. While some of the buys might be new teams, this looks a little one-sided.
pd
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| 10 | ¤ Mario LeMoose ¤
ID: 49223814
Fri, Mar 08, 2002, 14:23
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Maybe the BORG has returned.
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| 11 | The Left Wings
ID: 760719
Fri, Mar 08, 2002, 14:59
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Making $300k+ 7 straight days does tell me that something has changed. Money hasn't come easy this season until this week.
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| 12 | Hershy
ID: 31635315
Fri, Mar 08, 2002, 15:17
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TLW: I defininitely disagree. Making money this year has been much easier than in past year!
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| 13 | Tuques
ID: 40218810
Fri, Mar 08, 2002, 15:57
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Hershy I totally disagree with you and agree with TLW caue I'm in the same situation I only have a RV of 64M.... Compare to 75M last season at this time....
Tuques
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| 14 | perk9600
ID: 4542177
Fri, Mar 08, 2002, 16:18
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Well I have had an easier time making money this year than last, but only because I am a better player than I was last year. I don't think it has been particularly easy to make money this year, just look at the gurupie standings average money and you will see that people like you Hershy are in the minority. Most of us are around the 70 million mark.
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| 15 | Kings Fan
ID: 9243514
Fri, Mar 08, 2002, 16:23
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TLW - same here. I've had 10 straight days of 320k+. I was only at 70 mil at the Olympic break, so it does appear like something's amiss.
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| 16 | KrazyKoalaBears
Donor
ID: 266182910
Fri, Mar 08, 2002, 16:35
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Personally I couldn't say one way or another if making money has been easier, but it's obviously been pretty easy for everyone over the last 3-4 days. Pretty much just pick up someone with a heartbeat and you're making money.
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| 17 | KrazyKoalaBears
Donor
ID: 266182910
Fri, Mar 08, 2002, 16:53
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Some further proof. Only 18 Gurupies lost money yesterday (which also appeared to be an anomaly day) with only 4 losing $200k or more, yet here are some previous number of losers: 03/02: 30
03/01: 29
02/28: 32
02/27: 44
Olympic Break
02/13: 39
02/12: 44
02/11: 46
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| 18 | Hershy
ID: 31635315
Fri, Mar 08, 2002, 17:15
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It might be because I am having a great year that I am disagreeing. I find that the best money making strategy is skipping the first day of play to see who the big money makers are. I made millions in the first week or two.
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| 19 | The Left Wings
ID: 760719
Fri, Mar 08, 2002, 17:23
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Perhaps we had more differentiation in the middle of the season. Now, there are only several good teams with good schedules and so the buys are concentrated. If 10 players were sold 10 times and they were all replaced by the same player (100 buys), then of course it's easier to make money and the losers lose little compared to the gainers.
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| 20 | KrazyKoalaBears
Donor
ID: 266182910
Fri, Mar 08, 2002, 18:11
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TLW, that's just the point. Everyone's roster has been somewhat similar since December/January. Pick any 2 teams and probably 1/2 the players are the same. Rosters get more similar as the season goes on. The price movers for today and yesterday are similar to what would be expected at the start of a season. Wide spread sells from greatly different drafts (so loss percentages are spread out) with a concentrated buying of who is hot (so gain percentages are focused on a select few). But we all know that a scenario like that is highly unlikely at this point in the season, which is what makes these changes look way off.
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| 21 | The Left Wings
ID: 760719
Fri, Mar 08, 2002, 18:45
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Actually, I thought that the rosters have been somewhat different since January.
In November, most teams look similar with guys like Parrish and Bates. But then in January when Iginla faded, there did not seem to be a player who everyone had on his roster. It's been different since the Olympic break. Everybody has Iginla, and most have Lindros, as well as Palffy, Allison, Sakic, Roy, etc.
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| 22 | Blizz
ID: 441241523
Fri, Mar 08, 2002, 19:23
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Maybe the losers do equal the buyers. Its just a theory I came up with now and havent checked but perhaps the players gain or loss shouldnt be the comparison...rather their delta gain or loss should be what is compared.
e.g. Gagne would be +10, Iginla would be +0, Lindros would be -50, Turco +20 etc...
So some of the gainers, like Lindros could actually be a loser.
I'm probably wrong, I haven't put too much thought into it, but it's just something to think about.
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| 23 | KrazyKoalaBears
Donor
ID: 266182910
Fri, Mar 08, 2002, 22:11
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Anyone notice anything interesting about the Basketball price movers? Gainers
Thomas, Kurt + 130,000
Davis, Baron + 70,000
Francis, Steve + 60,000
Tinsley, Jamaal + 60,000
Alexander, Courtney + 40,000
Payton, Gary + 30,000
Thomas, Kenny + 30,000
Wallace, Ben + 30,000
Mashburn, Jamal + 30,000
Whitney, Chris + 30,000
Webber, Chris + 20,000
McDyess, Antonio + 20,000
Hamilton, Richard + 20,000
Radmanovic, Vladimir + 20,000
Laettner, Christian + 20,000
| Losers
Miller, Andre -110,000
Davis, Dale -90,000
Billups, Chauncey -80,000
Garnett, Kevin -40,000
Fox, Rick -40,000
Horry, Robert -40,000
McGrady, Tracy -30,000
Hill, Grant -30,000
Armstrong, Darrell -30,000
Grant, Brian -30,000
Ratliff, Theo -30,000
Oakley, Charles -30,000
Anderson, Derek -30,000
Olajuwon, Hakeem -30,000
Mercer, Ron -30,000 |
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| 24 | C.SuperFreak
ID: 589291221
Fri, Mar 08, 2002, 23:05
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It's probably not that important but if you select 10 random players not on the gainers/losers list there are no money gains (0 to 10 grand) to be had.
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| 25 | The Left Wings
ID: 760719
Fri, Mar 08, 2002, 23:44
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Losers lose more than gainers gain.
That may be the beginning of differentiation between teams.
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| 26 | Bernie
ID: 46027521
Sat, Mar 09, 2002, 00:19
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I don't know about other positions but the unequal distributions at centre seem to be reasonable. Within a couple of days we lose many top centres to injury, suspension or bad schedules. As a result many managers were escaping Lemieux, Thornton, Yzerman, Modano, Weight, Lang, Federov, (and even Sundin to an extent on schedule basis). This left them with a lot of bucks and only a select few to go to with those dollars and a decent schedule at the time. Hence we see the rise in value of Lindros, Roenick, Bonk & Conroy (and probably Sakic on Thursday). This is almost a two to one sell to buy probability ratio leading to the bought players rising almost twice as much as sold players dropping. It's following the post Olympic ".. I broke my fingernail, or my finger, or my leg or something just before or during the Olympics but I carried on for King (Clancy) and Country but now I can't play for a few days/weeks/'til the playoffs/next year sometime" that we've seen mentioned in other threads.
This might also be true for wingers et al but for some reason I see the pattern in the centres.
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| 27 | Erik B.
ID: 44811314
Sun, Mar 10, 2002, 13:27
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KKB:
I'll review this first thing on Monday. At first glance, these price changes don't seem off. Tell me what you're seeing that i'm missing.
-ESB
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| 28 | Greenbelt
ID: 31251109
Sun, Mar 10, 2002, 13:31
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Eric;
KKB is most likely somewhere on Hwy 27 about now. I believe post #3 is what he's getting at. More tonite.
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| 29 | KrazyKoalaBears
Donor
ID: 266182910
Sun, Mar 10, 2002, 21:12
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Erik, the main thing that looks off is that 9 of the people on the Losers list are in Gravity, so where are all the losers to account for all the Gainers? It just seems like it would take a LOT of -$10k and -$20k losers to account for the kinds of gains seen on the Gainers side. Look at the wingers. The top 2 Gainers, both over $100k, are Wingers, yet there are only 2 non-Gravity Wingers on the Losers list and it doesn't suggest near enough trade activity to boost Iginla and Gagne, so it would require a LOT of -$10k and -$20k guys. Add in the rest of the Winger gainers and it requires even more of those losers. It just doesn't seem to add up right. Maybe everything is alright and it just looks weird, but I think it could use a good looking at.
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| 30 | Domi's Left Fist
Donor
ID: 141161110
Mon, Mar 11, 2002, 09:32
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I don't know, I think what we are starting to see is the change over in mentality towards the end of the year.
1. The first 3/4 of the season is characterized by saving up of trades which results in a) fewer trades and b) the majority of trades being made after new allotment of trades on Wed.
2. Now, not only is everyone trading more often, but they have changed strategy from $$$ to points resulting in a more 'schedule' based strategy that necessitates trades on a more regular basis and on every day of the week.
3. It seems that the $$$ algorithm for movement becomes very steeply curved at both ends of the scale (bell curve -- on the high end somewhere around $120,000)at a relatively low level of trades. This results in several things. a) on a tuesday at the beginning of the season (very low trading day -- 100,000) you will still see 1-2 $80-90,000 gainer(s).
b) after noon on a wed. a month into the season (a relatively high trading day) you will still only see 2-3 $100,000+ movers AND the max. gainers will be affected by the extremely steep curve at the $120,000 mark. On a typical Thursday you would see say 600,000 trades (200,000 users X 3 trades)
This lead to a situation where all trades were being burned on one day (price movement was very far into the curve, where an additional trade has very little impact) and therefore the maximum weekly gain for a team was very limited.
All of this, in my opinion, can lead to the situation we are seeing now ... Every day a medium number of trades (say 250,000), leading to a 'Thursday' every day of the week and thus, a very high weekly movement. Basically, the usage of trades for $$$ movement is at the most efficient point of the curve.
Add this to the fact that every one has just started to change strategies from money/points (a wider variety of choices) to strictly points (a limited number of choices) and you get the other aspect of the situation we are seeing ... strong gainers from a very spread out pool of losers.
I don't know about the above, but it's my take on the situation.
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| 31 | winmiller
Sustainer
ID: 107452613
Mon, Mar 11, 2002, 12:21
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Today's (3/11) price movers have me nearly convinced that the algorithm is now picking up lagging days. There is no way that Hasek, Shanahan, and Fedorov belong on today's gainers in the face of two days off and a 1 in 5. I do believe that they might have seen some buys on Saturday and Sunday, but for some reason that activity is just showing up now.
Maybe TSN is secretly trying out the 5 day pitcher price mover algorithm on us hockey clones.
;)
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