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Subject: TSN - Bernie/Erik (Price Changes)
Posted by: Dr. Doom
- [596271411] Mon, Mar 25, 2002, 11:20
I know it's late in the season, but I am concerned that the repricing is not working the same as it did before the all-star and Olympic breaks.
Most every day the gainers and losers appear to be similar in some fashion to a previous days movers. I certainly can not prove this but there is some evidence that looks interesting at least to me.
Since the resumption of re-pricing after the Olympic break there has not been one day where a players salary change has been greater than $80,000.
On the day that repricing resumed Feb 26 (post Olympics) three players had dramatic price changes on the positive side.
Khabibulin +110K from (-20K loss to 90K gain)
Sundin +160K from (-40K loss to 120K gain)
Theodore + 100K from (60K loss to 60K gain)
The losers on that day of any magnitude in terms of price change variance were
Shanahan -200K (+20K to -180K)
Turek -110K (+20K to -90K)
Federov -120K (+40K to -80K)
Thibault -90K (+50K to -40K)
All of these changes looked normal as we had seen all year.
Going back in time to the all-star break a similar pattern was evident. Over the course of nine days until the Olympic break, no one had a positive net change of more that 80K, and two players had a negative change of 80K or more, both on the same day.
Prior to the all-star break, four or more players per day had changes that would fit into this model. Rarely was there a day no one would gain or lose 80K more than the previous day. In fact from Dec. 19 to Feb 4 there were only 5 days on the postive side and 4 on the negative side where no one saw and +/-80K net change and 3 of these days were at Christmas.
Here is an example of the pre all-star break price swings.
Mike Modano (these are actual change $)
Jan 18 +10K
Jan 19 -140
Jan 20 +120K
Jan 21 -80K
Jan 22 -60K
Jan 23 +30K
Jan 24 -90K
Jan 25 +60K
Jan 26 -80K
Jan 27 +80K
Jan 28 +40K
Jan 29 -80K
Is this example extraordinary, not for the popular players, there are a lot more of them.
I have a spreadsheet that was liberally sprinkled with the colors of positive and negative net changes. The colors died after the all-star break.
If I have missed the boat entirely, I apologize in advance for wasting your time.
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| 1 | Dr. Doom
ID: 16142182
Sun, Mar 31, 2002, 16:55
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It's over a month since the Olympic break and I still don't get it. The party line is that everything looks okay to us. What does that mean. It doesn't look okay to me. I have been tracking the Ultimate Hockey standings for the whole year, adding teams as they get into the top 100, adding team from the weekly winners.
For the past three days I have added the frozen rosters into the mix of data. The Ulimate Hockey is nowhere near as big as the regular pool and the frozen rosters should be a good indication of actual roster movement.
Right now I have, around 650 teams out of the about 750 teams. I have also dumped a bunch of inactives, so the sample should be very representative.
I have spent way to much time looking at this and I don't want to replicate this any time soon. I am just very unconvinced at the legitimacy of these price changes.
I would guess there are some statistics gurus out there that could shoot me down but these samples are not even close to the actuals. What is the likelyhood of that with a sample well over 50% and over 95% of the top 500.
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| 2 | Dr. Doom
ID: 16142182
Sun, Mar 31, 2002, 16:56
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| Ultimate Price Change Gainers - March 29 | | Player | Pos | Team | Salary | Change | Buys | Gagne, Simon | W | Phi | 6440000 | 50000 | -4 | Daze, Eric | W | Chi | 4570000 | 50000 | 18 | Bertuzzi, Todd | W | Van | 4180000 | 50000 | -2 | Shanahan, Brendan | W | Det | 7830000 | 40000 | -1 | Elias, Patrik | W | NJ | 7730000 | 40000 | 19 | Burke, Sean | G | Pho | 6930000 | 30000 | -7 | Thibault, Jocelyn | G | Chi | 5820000 | 30000 | 18 | Lidstrom, Nicklas | D | Det | 5370000 | 30000 | 3 | Holik, Bobby | C | NJ | 3220000 | 30000 | 21 | Nieuwendyk, Joe | C | NJ | 2970000 | 30000 | 28 | Numminen, Teppo | D | Pho | 1300000 | 30000 | -3 | Roy, Patrick | G | Col | 8880000 | 20000 | 3 | Salo, Tommy | G | Edm | 7080000 | 20000 | -1 | Modano, Mike | C | Dal | 6270000 | 20000 | -8 | Zhamnov, Alex | C | Chi | 4230000 | 20000 | 16 | Comrie, Mike | C | Edm | 3510000 | 20000 | 2 | Cloutier, Dan | G | Van | 3040000 | 20000 | -10 | Briere, Daniel | C | Pho | 1630000 | 20000 | 2 | Brodeur, Martin | G | NJ | 8580000 | 10000 | 20 | Kovalev, Alexei | W | Pit | 7800000 | 10000 | 2 |
| Ultimate Price Change Losers - March 29 | | Player | Pos | Team | Salary | Change | Buys |
Guerin, Bill | W | Bos | 5570000 | -80000 | -2 | Bure, Pavel | W | NYR | 7250000 | -50000 | -5 | Dafoe, Byron | G | Bos | 7280000 | -40000 | 1 | Murray, Glen | W | Bos | 3590000 | -40000 | 3 | Lindros, Eric | C | NYR | 7040000 | -30000 | 1 | Lalime, Patrick | G | Ott | 6930000 | -30000 | -2 | Khabibulin, Nikolai | G | TB | 6920000 | -30000 | -2 | Roberts, Gary | W | Tor | 1910000 | -30000 | -2 | Lemieux, Mario | C | Pit | 8430000 | -20000 | 0 | Fleury, Theo | W | NYR | 7960000 | -20000 | -2 | Cechmanek, Roman | G | Phi | 7530000 | -20000 | 0 | Iginla, Jarome | W | Cal | 6670000 | -20000 | -8 | Hedberg, Johan | G | Pit | 6640000 | -20000 | 0 | Alfredsson, Daniel | W | Ott | 6180000 | -20000 | -12 | Belfour, Ed | G | Dal | 6050000 | -20000 | 0 | Allison, Jason | C | LA | 6010000 | -20000 | -14 | Yzerman, Steve | C | Det | 5440000 | -20000 | 0 | Gonchar, Sergei | D | Was | 5410000 | -20000 | 1 | Dunham, Mike | G | Nas | 5360000 | -20000 | 0 | Hejduk, Milan | W | Col | 5330000 | -20000 | 0 |
| Ultimate Sample Gainers - March 29 | | Player | Pos | Team | Salary | Change | Buys | Nieuwendyk, Joe | C | NJ | 2970000 | 30000 | 28 | Holik, Bobby | C | NJ | 3220000 | 30000 | 21 | Brodeur, Martin | G | NJ | 8580000 | 10000 | 20 | Elias, Patrik | W | NJ | 7730000 | 40000 | 19 | Jagr, Jaromir | W | Was | 8890000 | 0 | 18 | Thibault, Jocelyn | G | Chi | 5820000 | 30000 | 18 | Daze, Eric | W | Chi | 4570000 | 50000 | 18 | Zhamnov, Alex | C | Chi | 4230000 | 20000 | 16 | Rafalski, Brian | D | NJ | 4520000 | 10000 | 8 | Gaborik, Marian | W | Min | 3620000 | 10000 | 8 | Housley, Phil | D | Chi | 2300000 | 10000 | 8 | Bondra, Peter | W | Was | 7290000 | 0 | 6 | Amonte, Tony | W | Chi | 4300000 | 10000 | 6 | Yashin, Alexei | C | NYI | 6930000 | 0 | 5 | Aucoin, Adrian | D | NYI | 1680000 | 10000 | 5 | Roy, Patrick | G | Col | 8880000 | 20000 | 3 | Lidstrom, Nicklas | D | Det | 5370000 | 30000 | 3 | Murray, Glen | W | Bos | 3590000 | -40000 | 3 | McCabe, Bryan | D | Tor | 2540000 | 10000 | 3 | Zubrus, Dainius | W | Was | 500000 | 0 | 3 |
| Ultimate Sample Losers - March 29 | | Player | Pos | Team | Salary | Change | Buys | Allison, Jason | C | LA | 6010000 | -20000 | -14 | Sundin, Mats | C | Tor | 6840000 | -10000 | -12 | Alfredsson, Daniel | W | Ott | 6180000 | -20000 | -12 | Bonk, Radek | C | Ott | 4640000 | -20000 | -10 | Cloutier, Dan | G | Van | 3040000 | 20000 | -10 | Hossa, Marian | W | Ott | 5120000 | -10000 | -9 | Deadmarsh, Adam | W | LA | 2960000 | -20000 | -9 | Iginla, Jarome | W | Cal | 6670000 | -20000 | -8 | Modano, Mike | C | Dal | 6270000 | 20000 | -8 | Theodore, Jose | G | Mon | 6040000 | 0 | -8 | Fedorov, Sergei | C | Det | 7040000 | 0 | -7 | Burke, Sean | G | Pho | 6930000 | 30000 | -7 | Chara, Zdeno | D | Ott | 1760000 | -20000 | -7 | York, Mike | C | Edm | 3320000 | 0 | -6 | Bure, Pavel | W | NYR | 7250000 | -50000 | -5 | Naslund, Markus | W | Van | 6910000 | 10000 | -5 | Potvin, Felix | G | LA | 5540000 | -10000 | -5 | Oates, Adam | C | Phi | 4630000 | 10000 | -5 | Hasek, Dominik | G | Det | 10010000 | 0 | -4 | Gagne, Simon | W | Phi | 6440000 | 50000 | -4 |
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| 3 | Dr. Doom
ID: 16142182
Sun, Mar 31, 2002, 16:56
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| Ultimate Price Change Gainers - Mar. 30 | | Player | Pos | Team | Salary | Change | Buys | Shanahan, Brendan | W | Det | 7900000 | 70000 | 8 | Elias, Patrik | W | NJ | 7770000 | 40000 | 0 | Gagne, Simon | W | Phi | 6480000 | 40000 | -1 | Daze, Eric | W | Chi | 4610000 | 40000 | -10 | Bertuzzi, Todd | W | Van | 4220000 | 40000 | 6 | Nieuwendyk, Joe | C | NJ | 3010000 | 40000 | -2 | Roy, Patrick | G | Col | 8910000 | 30000 | 1 | Brodeur, Martin | G | NJ | 8610000 | 30000 | -4 | Thibault, Jocelyn | G | Chi | 5850000 | 30000 | -11 | Lidstrom, Nicklas | D | Det | 5400000 | 30000 | -1 | Holik, Bobby | C | NJ | 3250000 | 30000 | -3 | Hasek, Dominik | G | Det | 10030000 | 20000 | 1 | Kovalev, Alexei | W | Pit | 7820000 | 20000 | 10 | Zhamnov, Alex | C | Chi | 4250000 | 20000 | -8 | Cloutier, Dan | G | Van | 3060000 | 20000 | 2 | Briere, Daniel | C | Pho | 1650000 | 20000 | 3 | Numminen, Teppo | D | Pho | 1320000 | 20000 | 2 | Sakic, Joe | C | Col | 9610000 | 10000 | 0 | Tkachuk, Keith | W | StL | 7550000 | 10000 | 2 | Fedorov, Sergei | C | Det | 7050000 | 10000 | 1 |
| Ultimate Price Change Losers - Mar. 30 | | Player | Pos | Team | Salary | Change | Buys |
Guerin, Bill | W | Bos | 5490000 | -80000 | -1 | Bure, Pavel | W | NYR | 7200000 | -50000 | -1 | Dafoe, Byron | G | Bos | 7240000 | -40000 | -1 | Allison, Jason | C | LA | 5970000 | -40000 | -4 | Lalime, Patrick | G | Ott | 6900000 | -30000 | 0 | Khabibulin, Nikolai | G | TB | 6890000 | -30000 | 0 | Sundin, Mats | C | Tor | 6810000 | -30000 | -1 | Alfredsson, Daniel | W | Ott | 6150000 | -30000 | -2 | Murray, Glen | W | Bos | 3560000 | -30000 | 7 | Roberts, Gary | W | Tor | 1880000 | -30000 | 0 | Lemieux, Mario | C | Pit | 8410000 | -20000 | 0 | Fleury, Theo | W | NYR | 7940000 | -20000 | 0 | Cechmanek, Roman | G | Phi | 7510000 | -20000 | 0 | Lindros, Eric | C | NYR | 7020000 | -20000 | 5 | Hedberg, Johan | G | Pit | 6620000 | -20000 | 1 | Belfour, Ed | G | Dal | 6030000 | -20000 | 0 | Theodore, Jose | G | Mon | 6020000 | -20000 | 4 | Potvin, Felix | G | LA | 5520000 | -20000 | 2 | Yzerman, Steve | C | Det | 5420000 | -20000 | 0 | Dunham, Mike | G | Nas | 5340000 | -20000 | 0 |
| Ultimate Sample Gainers - Mar. 30 | | Player | Pos | Team | Salary | Change | Buys | Kovalev, Alexei | W | Pit | 7820000 | 20000 | 10 | Shanahan, Brendan | W | Det | 7900000 | 70000 | 8 | Conroy, Craig | C | Cal | 3350000 | 10000 | 8 | Murray, Glen | W | Bos | 3560000 | -30000 | 7 | Bertuzzi, Todd | W | Van | 4220000 | 40000 | 6 | Lindros, Eric | C | NYR | 7020000 | -20000 | 5 | Theodore, Jose | G | Mon | 6020000 | -20000 | 4 | Nabokov, Evgeni | G | SJ | 7780000 | 0 | 3 | Naslund, Markus | W | Van | 6920000 | 10000 | 3 | Johnson, Brent | G | StL | 5590000 | 10000 | 3 | Pronger, Chris | D | StL | 4970000 | 0 | 3 | Aucoin, Adrian | D | NYI | 1690000 | 10000 | 3 | Briere, Daniel | C | Pho | 1650000 | 20000 | 3 | Tkachuk, Keith | W | StL | 7550000 | 10000 | 2 | Salo, Tommy | G | Edm | 7080000 | 0 | 2 | Potvin, Felix | G | LA | 5520000 | -20000 | 2 | Cloutier, Dan | G | Van | 3060000 | 20000 | 2 | Numminen, Teppo | D | Pho | 1320000 | 20000 | 2 | Hrdina, Jan | C | Pit | 1240000 | -10000 | 2 | O'Donnell, Sean | D | Bos | 930000 | -10000 | 2 |
| Ultimate Sample Losers - Mar. 30 | | Player | Pos | Team | Salary | Change | Buys | Thibault, Jocelyn | G | Chi | 5850000 | 30000 | -11 | Daze, Eric | W | Chi | 4610000 | 40000 | -10 | Zhamnov, Alex | C | Chi | 4250000 | 20000 | -8 | Amonte, Tony | W | Chi | 4310000 | 10000 | -6 | Jagr, Jaromir | W | Was | 8880000 | -10000 | -5 | Brodeur, Martin | G | NJ | 8610000 | 30000 | -4 | Allison, Jason | C | LA | 5970000 | -40000 | -4 | Deadmarsh, Adam | W | LA | 2940000 | -20000 | -4 | Gonchar, Sergei | D | Was | 5400000 | -10000 | -3 | Holik, Bobby | C | NJ | 3250000 | 30000 | -3 | Housley, Phil | D | Chi | 2310000 | 10000 | -3 | Alfredsson, Daniel | W | Ott | 6150000 | -30000 | -2 | Satan, Miroslav | W | Buf | 5080000 | -10000 | -2 | Rafalski, Brian | D | NJ | 4530000 | 10000 | -2 | Czerkawski, Mariusz | W | NYI | 3810000 | 0 | -2 | Comrie, Mike | C | Edm | 3510000 | 0 | -2 | York, Mike | C | Edm | 3310000 | -10000 | -2 | Nieuwendyk, Joe | C | NJ | 3010000 | 40000 | -2 | Langkow, Daymond | C | Pho | 2690000 | -10000 | -2 | Passmore, Steve | G | Chi | 500000 | 0 | -2 |
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| 4 | Dr. Doom
ID: 16142182
Sun, Mar 31, 2002, 16:57
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| Ultimate Price Change Gainers - March 31 | | Player | Pos | Team | Salary | Change | Buys | Shanahan, Brendan | W | Det | 7970000 | 70000 | -8 | Nieuwendyk, Joe | C | NJ | 3050000 | 40000 | 0 | Roy, Patrick | G | Col | 8940000 | 30000 | 0 | Elias, Patrik | W | NJ | 7800000 | 30000 | 3 | Lidstrom, Nicklas | D | Det | 5430000 | 30000 | 0 | Bertuzzi, Todd | W | Van | 4250000 | 30000 | -15 | Gaborik, Marian | W | Min | 3660000 | 30000 | 10 | Holik, Bobby | C | NJ | 3280000 | 30000 | 1 | Gagne, Simon | W | Phi | 6500000 | 20000 | 6 | Hull, Brett | W | Det | 5890000 | 20000 | 3 | Thibault, Jocelyn | G | Chi | 5870000 | 20000 | 19 | Daze, Eric | W | Chi | 4630000 | 20000 | 17 | Amonte, Tony | W | Chi | 4330000 | 20000 | 11 | Zhamnov, Alex | C | Chi | 4270000 | 20000 | 15 | Housley, Phil | D | Chi | 2330000 | 20000 | 7 | Hasek, Dominik | G | Det | 10040000 | 10000 | -1 | Sakic, Joe | C | Col | 9620000 | 10000 | 2 | Brodeur, Martin | G | NJ | 8620000 | 10000 | 0 | Kovalev, Alexei | W | Pit | 7830000 | 10000 | 12 | Tkachuk, Keith | W | StL | 7560000 | 10000 | 4 |
| Ultimate Price Change Losers - March 31 | | Player | Pos | Team | Salary | Change | Buys |
Bure, Pavel | W | NYR | 7150000 | -50000 | -1 | Allison, Jason | C | LA | 5920000 | -50000 | -6 | Guerin, Bill | W | Bos | 5440000 | -50000 | -4 | Alfredsson, Daniel | W | Ott | 6110000 | -40000 | -8 | Lalime, Patrick | G | Ott | 6870000 | -30000 | -1 | Bonk, Radek | C | Ott | 4590000 | -30000 | -4 | Deadmarsh, Adam | W | LA | 2910000 | -30000 | -5 | Lemieux, Mario | C | Pit | 8390000 | -20000 | 0 | Fleury, Theo | W | NYR | 7920000 | -20000 | -1 | Cechmanek, Roman | G | Phi | 7490000 | -20000 | 0 | Dafoe, Byron | G | Bos | 7220000 | -20000 | -2 | Sundin, Mats | C | Tor | 6790000 | -20000 | 0 | Hedberg, Johan | G | Pit | 6600000 | -20000 | -1 | Belfour, Ed | G | Dal | 6010000 | -20000 | 1 | Potvin, Felix | G | LA | 5500000 | -20000 | -4 | Yzerman, Steve | C | Det | 5400000 | -20000 | 0 | Gonchar, Sergei | D | Was | 5380000 | -20000 | -3 | Dunham, Mike | G | Nas | 5320000 | -20000 | 0 | Hejduk, Milan | W | Col | 5290000 | -20000 | 0 | Hossa, Marian | W | Ott | 5090000 | -20000 | -3 |
| Ultimate Sample Gainers - March 31 | | Player | Pos | Team | Salary | Change | Buys | Thibault, Jocelyn | G | Chi | 5870000 | 20000 | 19 | Daze, Eric | W | Chi | 4630000 | 20000 | 17 | Zhamnov, Alex | C | Chi | 4270000 | 20000 | 15 | Kovalev, Alexei | W | Pit | 7830000 | 10000 | 12 | Amonte, Tony | W | Chi | 4330000 | 20000 | 11 | Gaborik, Marian | W | Min | 3660000 | 30000 | 10 | Passmore, Steve | G | Chi | 510000 | 10000 | 10 | Nylander, Michael | C | Chi | 2460000 | 10000 | 7 | Housley, Phil | D | Chi | 2330000 | 20000 | 7 | Gagne, Simon | W | Phi | 6500000 | 20000 | 6 | Tkachuk, Keith | W | StL | 7560000 | 10000 | 4 | Elias, Patrik | W | NJ | 7800000 | 30000 | 3 | Lindros, Eric | C | NYR | 7010000 | -10000 | 3 | Hull, Brett | W | Det | 5890000 | 20000 | 3 | Johnson, Brent | G | StL | 5600000 | 10000 | 3 | Calder, Kyle | C | Chi | 2010000 | 0 | 3 | Brunette, Andrew | W | Min | 1550000 | 10000 | 3 | Sakic, Joe | C | Col | 9620000 | 10000 | 2 | Blake, Rob | D | Col | 5600000 | 0 | 2 | Recchi, Mark | W | Phi | 5560000 | 0 | 2 |
| Ultimate Sample Losers - March 31 | | Player | Pos | Team | Salary | Change | Buys | Bertuzzi, Todd | W | Van | 4250000 | 30000 | -15 | Cloutier, Dan | G | Van | 3060000 | 0 | -10 | Jagr, Jaromir | W | Was | 8880000 | 0 | -9 | Shanahan, Brendan | W | Det | 7970000 | 70000 | -8 | Alfredsson, Daniel | W | Ott | 6110000 | -40000 | -8 | York, Mike | C | Edm | 3290000 | -20000 | -8 | Nabokov, Evgeni | G | SJ | 7780000 | 0 | -6 | Bondra, Peter | W | Was | 7290000 | 0 | -6 | Naslund, Markus | W | Van | 6930000 | 10000 | -6 | Allison, Jason | C | LA | 5920000 | -50000 | -6 | Deadmarsh, Adam | W | LA | 2910000 | -30000 | -5 | Potvin, Felix | G | LA | 5500000 | -20000 | -4 | Guerin, Bill | W | Bos | 5440000 | -50000 | -4 | Oates, Adam | C | Phi | 4630000 | -10000 | -4 | Bonk, Radek | C | Ott | 4590000 | -30000 | -4 | Iginla, Jarome | W | Cal | 6680000 | 0 | -3 | Osgood, Chris | G | NYI | 6480000 | -10000 | -3 | Gonchar, Sergei | D | Was | 5380000 | -20000 | -3 | Hossa, Marian | W | Ott | 5090000 | -20000 | -3 | Francis, Ron | C | Car | 4560000 | 0 | -3 |
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| 5 | Dr. Doom
ID: 16142182
Sun, Mar 31, 2002, 16:58
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I am sure the free game changes are just as inaccurate as the Ulimate changes.
Thanks
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| 6 | ¤ Mario LeMoose ¤
ID: 302173117
Sun, Mar 31, 2002, 17:17
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You're correct in your assumption about abnormal price changes for the free game, Dr. Doom; check out this thread and this thread.
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| 7 | quik@lab
ID: 11462215
Sun, Mar 31, 2002, 17:20
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yeah.. i've completely given up on trying to anticipate price changes, and this backs up what my reasoning was.. hmm.. have you tried fitting the buys over x amount of days versus the price changes.. my guess is that price changes correspond directly with the buys/sells over an amount of days equal to the duration of the olympic break.
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| 8 | Dr. Doom
ID: 16142182
Sun, Mar 31, 2002, 17:30
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Moose,
Thanks, for the links, I have seen all the threads, but it has only been a month, maybe everything is fine. ;~)
quik,
I agree with you that there could be some averaging, which would backup the point of my original post. I don't have time to go through the last 13 days to find out for sure.
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| 9 | Erik B.
ID: 44811314
Sun, Mar 31, 2002, 17:49
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Guys:
I'll specifically take another look at this on Monday. I know it's been brought up before. But, honestly, the computer appears to be following our pricing formula correctly. Dr. Doom, perhaps you can email me (ebarmack@sportingnews.com) so that I can contact you and we can drill down this point by point.
-Erik
GM/TSN
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| 10 | KrazyKoalaBears
Donor
ID: 266182910
Sun, Mar 31, 2002, 18:21
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I think quik is on to something with post #7. Maybe they forgot to switch the pricing algorithm back to "normal" mode instead of "2-week" mode? Seems as good an explanation as any given that it was post-Olympics that all this started appearing.
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| 11 | Erik B.
ID: 239592612
Mon, Apr 01, 2002, 16:50
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KKB, Dr. Doom, et al:
You guys were right -- our formula was off, slightly, since the all-star break and trades have gone down as well, the combination of which made this bug hard to find. We've fixed this bug, and you should see more understandable price updates starting tomorrow.
-ESB
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| 12 | Dr. Doom
ID: 596271411
Mon, Apr 01, 2002, 18:00
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Thanks Erik,
The prices change variance was way to smooth as noted in the original post in this thread,way to much of a curve instead of a series of spikes. A special thanks to TLW who first noted the possibility in this post.
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| 13 | The Left Wings
ID: 760719
Mon, Apr 01, 2002, 20:36
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Heh thanks... Just a lucky guess... I'm just glad that the stuff I've learnt were useful at picking possible problems.
Now, how do we explain the huge money gains most of us had for the first few weeks after the Olympic break?
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| 15 | Dr. Doom
ID: 16142182
Mon, Apr 01, 2002, 21:08
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The money gains were explained by the error in the repricing. I suspect the changes were based on some cumulative number of buys or sells over a specific time frame.
If you owned a player who had positive buys he would likely continue to gain money because the previous days buys would support a positive price change.
If a popular players schedule went for a dump, he would likely not gain as much or else lose a minimum amount. A popular player with a schedule of play, day off, play, day off, .... would very likely never lose money, just gain less on the off days. Even a two day off schedule might not send you into the negatives, depending on the amount of buys in the previous days.
A good example would be the days around the Pavel Bure trade. He was acquired around the 19th of March, his gains for the previous days were zero. Prior to that a few days of losses, nothing significant. On the day of his first game with the Rangers he gained 40K, the following days gains were 70K, 100K, 120K, 110K, 100K, 90K, 20K, 30K. The two last days of +100K gains were off days and should have in all likelyhood be negative days and not big gains, but the large number of buys for his 3 games in 4 days would have supported his positive gains during two days off.
To continue the thought, once he didn't lose money on the first day of two days off, potential sellers might have put off the sell they might have otherwise done.
So, if you were holding a players who was gaining money it would have been very hard for them to drop into losing money in a decent schedule. If you had a lot of money makers you would have made a lot of money.
Again thanks for your inspiration, I knew there was a problem since the all-star break, but I couldn't put my finger on it.
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