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Subject: How important is money for hockey?
Posted by: TT
- [52715301] Wed, Sep 28, 2005, 19:51
I have played smallworld basketball for a long time now and I prefer it over hockey. Because you know exactly what is going to happen. A 10 million dollar player will get you more points than a 5 million dollar player. There are the rare nites when a 5 mil player will get you more points than a 10 mil player, but likely not by much. You will never see a 10mil player put up a donut, or even negatives. Unless they get injured early during the game which cannot be predicted.
Hockey on the other hand is very volatile every nite. It is not uncommon for a 10 mil player to put up 0 while a 5 mil player put up 100+. And it is not uncommon for a 10 mil player to go 2 or 3 nites without a single point. It is not only the points that is hurting you, it is the fact that you spent so much money on a player to have a couple bad games in a row. And it is VERY difficult to predict exactly when the 10 mil player will break out of his slump.
In basketball if 2 players have the same average but 1 player plays 1 game and the other players 2, you know approx how much more points you will get choosing 1 player over the other. You will approx get the players average. In hockey you also get the player that plays 2 games over the player who only plays one, but you really have no idea if you will indeed get more points from one player or not, you can only hope you do. The player's particular average only matters over the course of a long time, maybe even a season. But over the course of 1 or 2 games all bets are off.
So what I am trying to say is a 50mil roster team (all players playing) can very easily outpoint the 70mil roster team (again all players playing) on any given nite. Maybe even through a span of 1 week or 2 weeks. Now of course you can say over a long period of time, the average of the 70mil team would outpoint the average of the 50mil team. And you would be right. But how many of us keep the full roster in tact long enough to let the averages even out? Not much. And by the time the averages start to even out, the 50mil roster probably would have jumped on the new "flavour of the week" and again will be putting up huge #'s, despite only 50mil. And you must also jump on this "flavour of the week" if you want to keep up. Which sounds kind of funny that the 70mil roster has to try and keep up with roster moves of the 50mil roster. Unless the 70mil roster can find a hot 10mil player, but the 50mil roster player can most likely pick him up too if he really is worth it. You have to hope there are 4 or more hot 10 mil players so the 50mil roster guy can only pick up maybe 2.
So I find hockey less fun than basketball because hockey is more luck and basketball is more strategy intensive. Anyone care to disagree? |
| 1 | R9
Leader
ID: 02624472
Wed, Sep 28, 2005, 20:01
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I would care to disagree. ;) The main point you miss is that there is never 7 'flavor of the week' forwards at any one time. So while two winger slots and maybe a center might be taken by streaking cheapies in the 3-5 mil range, the rest of your roster is where the differentiation is. If Mr. 50 mil only has two expensive dudes and the rest mid-tier decent guys, you can outpoint him over the long haul just by being able to afford more expensive dudes.
In any one or two week period, a 50 mil team could definitely out-point a 70 mil team. Over the course of a very long season though that's impossible.
There are always those who say that roster value isn't important, yet every year the top 10 of every sport is filled with teams who's RV has made the difference. It really isn't random chance, that extra RV makes the difference.
One final thought as well: When looking at the sortables its often the case that over the 7, 15 and 30 day splits a 4-5 mil player is beating everyone, including the 10 mil players. However, one must remember that at the START of that 30-day hot streak, nobody in their right minds could've predicted that streak. On any given day, one is left guessing who will outpoint everyone over the next 30 days. You're just as likely to pick a 5 mil player who gets 1/2 of the 10 mil player's points as you are to pick the 5 mil dude who leads all players. Given that, I'd rather take the 10 mil player anyday.
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| 4 | TT
ID: 52715301
Wed, Sep 28, 2005, 20:38
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True those who win likely have the highest roster value. But how about thinking of it this way: The reason they have a higher roster value is because they had players who produced good throughout the season. Which is true, a player doesn't gain money unless he produces. And when you consistently have players who performs well on your team, of course you are gonna be high ranked. And then the money comes along as a result of your players performing well.
Case in point, the managers at the top with the high roster values never uses 100% of their RV. How often do you see managers with 10 mil, 20 mil in the bank during the season? Unless the manager has the top3 centers, wings, d, and top2 goalies money wise doesn't it prove my point that whoever is hot at that point is more important than who is most expensive at that point? Of course there are some expections of the highest priced player is injured or whatever.
edit: I can't spell or anything.
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| 5 | R9
Leader
ID: 02624472
Wed, Sep 28, 2005, 20:45
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I'll use this baseball season as an example. In July, there were a ton of decent priced SP's putting up stellar games. However, the expensive SP's were also doing good themselves, at a slightly better clip. The expensive hitters were all doing what we expected them to do. So many managers with only average payrolls got the expensive hitters and the cheap pitchers, and wondered why they weren't gaining any ground. Those of us with stacked RV's got the expensive hitters AND the expensive pitchers, and that slight difference got us to the top 100.
As far as the RV gain being because we owned players doing well... not really. Most of my gained RV was from early in the year, when gaining RV was easy. Buying a 1.5 mil forward who just scored 5 goals in 3 games for example. He gains 1 mil over the next 8 days, but scores only 20 TSNP because he's still a mediocre nobody who just got lucky before. Thats how most money is made...
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| 6 | TT
ID: 52715301
Wed, Sep 28, 2005, 21:09
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Again I must ask why ppl have money saved in the bank then. Shouldn't it be the more expensive the player, the more productive he will be? Of course with some exceptions.
And can you tell me if the same people are near the top of hockey every single time? I know for sure in Basketball Rotoguru along with many others are always at or near the top.
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| 7 | Taxman
SuperDude
ID: 029463114
Wed, Sep 28, 2005, 22:56
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Can't answer your question about the same people at the top... but can confirm that I (consistently) have not been at the top :(
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| 8 | smallwhirled
ID: 39816268
Thu, Sep 29, 2005, 11:30
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HUGE factor.
The difference between the real stud Dmen and the cheapie is really large. You can get a top 5 DMan and he will produce like a semi stud foward. The quicker you can lock in stud Dmen, the faster you can make up ground on the leaders.
Here is a group of what I'd say are the most important things to remember to be successful.
1) Make RV like crazy.
2) Following 1, allows you to lock in stud Dmen.
3) If you run out of trades (get to 0) before refresh, you are playing the game wrong.
4) Which leads into number 4, it is easier to gain a competitive RV advantage by taking advantage of LATE IN THE WEEK trading, it's more volatile.
Players that get to 0 trades tend to gain RV in the beginning of a trade refresh, and then lose most of it back at the end of the trade week. The biggest key is to continue to make a lot of RV every single day of the trade week. Getting used to the cycle and learning to play this way takes experimenting and practice.
Also, I tend to value stud fowards more than stud goalies. They tend to hit their averages more consistantly. If there is a page that accumulates stats this year, you will see my team very high in goals/points/assists as I tend to look for longer term values in at least 1 goalie slot until right near the end.
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| 9 | The Dienasty
ID: 132591
Fri, Sep 30, 2005, 00:58
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The difference between the real stud Dmen and the cheapie is really large. You can get a top 5 DMan and he will produce like a semi stud foward. The quicker you can lock in stud Dmen, the faster you can make up ground on the leaders.
I whole heartedly agree.
The quicker you can convert all of your roster positions into major point contributors, the better. Towards the end of the season, you want your defence to be able to produce was well as your forwards... Sure, there will be cheap players out there ready to step in and give you good value for your dollar, but studs are expensive for a reason. The likes of Gonchar, Blake, Leetch and Chara will always out perform thier sub $2,000,000 counterparts, and that's why you make money. To get as many points s possible, as soon as possible, before anyone else gets a chance to.
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| 10 | TT
ID: 52715301
Fri, Sep 30, 2005, 01:45
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Just we are making money just for the D-Men?
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| 11 | smallwhirled
ID: 39816268
Fri, Sep 30, 2005, 11:13
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No.
Since when is an average foward going to beat Naslund in the semi long run?
When you can afford Mario, Thornton, Vinny, Naslund, Forsberg, Pallfy, Iginla, Gonchar, Leetch, Chara, and your pick of 2 stud goalies.....then you have enough money.
Seriously, you should make RV until the very last day of the season, or until you can afford something like I mentioned above (which may not be attainable).
Oh, and finding hockey much less fun than hoops? I disagree. Hoops is fine, but stud games are pretty much a rough prediction of 40. Significant ground cannot be made up, I'm talking large deficits....and you have no chance for a high finish unless you have a ton of RV. This makes the game predictable and boring, and I always find it more of a chore to check my team rather than just pure fun. Once the top leaderboard in hoops sorts itself out by the last quarter of the season, if the teams have similar RVs, then they should end up with similar points so there won't be much movement.
TSN Hockey combines the best of both worlds. The strategic (number of games/schedule/RV making/ etc) of hoops, and the unpredictability of baseball. A good stud game is 100, a bad one is like a 0. That is a 100 point differential with one player on one day. Ground can be made up very quickly, that is what makes it fun. Yet, you will still see RV be more of a factor than baseball because the studs (in the semi long run) will not suck....which is what happened with stud pitching in baseball this year, and why RV wasn't as big of a factor as it could have been.
For me, if I rank the 3 similar TSN games in terms of MY knowledge of the sport, it is...baseball, hoops, hockey.
Ranking them in order of most fun....hockey, baseball, hoops.
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| 12 | TT
ID: 52715301
Fri, Sep 30, 2005, 12:15
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If money is so important, why would you ever consider doing anything else other than a day late team, week late team, etc ?
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| 13 | smallwhirled
ID: 39816268
Sun, Oct 02, 2005, 11:46
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Because it really doesn't matter which way you start, it matters how you finish. Starting with a late team does well only if you continue to make a ton of RV, if not you just missed out on a couple of days points. Both strategies do work, though. I've finished top 10 with both a week late and an on time team.
I'm probably going to start on time with my team, fwiw.
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