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Subject: Rotoguru Fantasy Hockey League Recap thread
Posted by: The Beezer
- Leader [191202817] Thu, Sep 29, 2005, 22:25
Since this is mainly using an Rotoguru Invitation challenge structure, it seems appropriate to use the guidelines for the recap thread from the man himself:
Managers - You are each invited (though not required) to post your general reflections on the completed draft. Comments may be as detailed or as general as you wish. As a catalyst, free free to comment on any of the following:
1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?
2. What were your favorite picks? Which do you wish you could do over?
3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?
4. What surprised you most about the draft?
5. If you could start over, would you do anything differently?
Non-managers are also welcome to post general comments on the draft, and to raise questions. |
| 1 | KrazyKoalaBears
Leader
ID: 517553018
Fri, Sep 30, 2005, 11:15
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1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?
Last question first. Yes, I was able to execute my strategy as planned.
My strategy was to take the best overall player available with my first pick, regardless of position. People may have differing opinions, but based on my cheat sheet, that was Naslund. My strategy after that was to have 2 solid keepers (got 'em with Aebischer and Cloutier) and then to round out the rest of my team. I also planned on taking into account availability of players. So, if there were a lot of good LW's on the board and not so many D's, I took a D (Blake). And so on and so forth. The last part of my strategy was to fill up my bench (after having all my starting spots filled) with "potential"; guys who could be worth starting as the season goes along, but also might not.
2. What were your favorite picks? Which do you wish you could do over?
Favorites: Naslund, Gaborik, Giguere, Cheechoo, Leopold, Hartnell, Dupuis. All of these are based on potential vs. where I got them.
Do Over's: Most people look at their team at this point and like what they see and I'm no different. Given a Do Over, I probably wouldn't take Drury and Bouwmeester where I did.
3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?
I never look beyond the first 5 or so picks when doing this because it's at the top where the most differentiation will be, IMHO. Given that, I like pfb's team the most. 2 good goalies with a good mix of the rest of the team. Handcuffing Boucher to Joseph in the 17th round was a good move and didn't cost him much.
4. What surprised you most about the draft?
The number of backup keepers taken earlier than expected. I know WAS isn't the greatest team in the world, but to see backups go off the board before all the starters were gone, particularly a good keeper like Kolzig, was surprising. It worked to my advantage, but it still surprised me. Outside of handcuffing, I didn't expect to see any backups taken until the last 2 or 3 rounds.
5. If you could start over, would you do anything differently?
Probably not. I like my team and how it's positioned. The Kolzig trade helped my team a lot as I was able to fill 4 needs at once and the rest of my draft was pretty straight forward. The only thing I might do differently is go after Brodeur with my first round pick, but G's aren't as valuable as forwards in this league, so I'm not even sure about that.
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| 2 | barilko6
ID: 10839137
Fri, Sep 30, 2005, 11:36
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1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?
Missing out on hockey for such a long period of time, I think I was out of it on a number of picks. I wanted to stay away from rookies for the most part, and select players who I thought would benefit from new surroundings, time off, and the new rules. My goalies might be a little weak, depending on how Pittsburgh and St. Louis perform, and if Grahame locks down a solid number one gig in TB.
Decided I would go with some high risk/reward picks with Mario, Lindros, and almost all my defensemen.
2. What were your favorite picks? Which do you wish you could do over?
I know many were surprised with Gonchar so early, but almost every site and publication I have been looking at have him rated in the top 10, so I am ok with that pick. I also like Mario and Eric if they can stay healthy as more than a point/game players.
There are a number of players who I have that will need to exceed expectations to warrant a higher draft pick...but I am confident that they can do it!
3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?
I like Butchie, mMoses, and Rogue9. Some serious firepower on those 3, especially the last two. Their teams are dependant on goalie performance though, but the offensese are pretty solid.
4. What surprised you most about the draft?
The goalies going so quickly...This really put me behind the 8-ball. I like the Dipietro pick, and if I had of looked at the stats more, I would have picked him ahead of Thibault.
I am also very surprised that I went with 4 Pittsburgh players with my five first picks...lol
5. If you could start over, would you do anything differently?
I would have a completely different team! There are so many choices out there that are great, and I really like mine, but with the uncertainty of the players and teams and all that, I am sure I would be able to go in 20 different directions with my team. That being said, I like the looks of my team, and think I have enough for a top 5 finish.
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| 3 | Hubble
ID: 56213211
Fri, Sep 30, 2005, 16:37
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1- Plan
As i repeated myself many times, i think going 2 goalies in first 2 rounds was a good strategy... I'm not sure about taken 4 in the first 10 rounds though... :) But then again, Wins and SO will be hard to get and if you aim for max game played without picking goalies that would hurt your averages that would help winning 2 categories, kinda like saves in baseball. Then again the balance is important, missing on the big guns gives me a late start in offensive categories. I felt that G, A, +/- and PIM are easier to adress on the F/A... and being active and selective... 2 qualities that you need anyway if you wanna win that league. I wanted to stay away of injury prone players and i think i did pretty good. Now i take a mental note for next year to stay away of fat prone players... i sure do hope that Tkachuck is sweating his ass off right... to be ready for openener. At least he'll get some PIM when fighting the guys that will laugh at him!
2-Favorite pick... and worst!
Alex Tanguay (4.06) and Kovalev (5.09) are both real great value IMHO... I predict Kovalev being top 10 in pts! I also like having Cole (11.09) and my late rounders...(Conroy, Tucker, Bulis, Bouchard)
My worst pick are: Keith Tkachubby... euh.. Tkachins... Tkachuck! How ashamed he must be... and am i! Anyway hopefully he'll get in shape soon. Also i paid a little to much for Biron (8.06) and Emery (10.06)... I'd like my team more with Datsyuk (9.06) and Zubov (10.12) for example...
3-Best team?
I really hate saying this, but it really look to me that all teams are pretty much even... Some team are real strong offensively but week in goals, some are balanced, some are strong in goals... I realize that is a shitty evaluation, but i would really need more time to deeply analyse everyone's team. If projection are something not reliable in fantasy, this is even more true with this year's hockey draft. IMPOSSIBLE to know... But my gots tell me that Mmoses, Dienasty and Barilko could be among top teams.
4-Surprise
How hard it was to evaluate what round each guy should go. When i would look at a guy i was thinking "surely i can wait few more round"... then he was gone, then i was like "bah... plenty more out there..." then few rounds later i was "crap... not much left euh?..." Was fun though!
Start over... what different?
With insight I would definitly take a bet on Crosby in round 3 or 4... Again not take Emery that early...
Conclusion of the thing... it was fun! I sure hope no1 will quit and that we will be 14 manager fighting at the end with no quiters.
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| 4 | The Beezer
Leader
ID: 191202817
Fri, Sep 30, 2005, 18:04
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1. Plan
The plan for this draft was pretty simple - take the top 2 goalies on my board, then take the rest of the starting lineup with the best available player at each pick, then one backup for each position. Goalies are so valuable in this setup that I can't overstate how important they are - I had them as deserving of the first 19 picks in the draft. I took a weighted 3 year average for every player in the league as my starting point and made minor adjustments based on changes in opportunities.
I tried very hard to avoid players with injury histories, rookies, or high picks that had changed teams. I also looked for balanced players that would contribute in all categories. I pretty much accomplished all of these goals.
2. Favorite picks/do-overs
I really think Smolinski might be a significant steal at 16.10. That pick just keeps looking better and better to me. Honestly I wouldn't change any of my picks - I pretty much like them all.
3. Best teams
I really like the teams that LIttle M, KKB, and Philflyboy put together. Since Tkachuk is back practicing with the team I think Hubble's team looks good as well.
4. Surprise
I was very surprised how long some teams waited to fill their goalie position. I think those teams will need huge breaks to win as I just see them falling behind in the goalie categories quickly. I was hoping that a lot of players would fall to me while people went rookie crazy, but I didn't really see that happen early - nicely done.
5. What I do different?
Not a thing. I'm either going to be a strong contender or I've completely misread everything I've looked at preparing for the coming season.
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| 5 | The Dienasty
ID: 132591
Fri, Sep 30, 2005, 18:51
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1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?
The night before the start of the draft, i actually went through a couple of scenarios for which i thought might be involved in, each one being based around either an early draft position, or a late one. When i found out the next morning that i was slated to draft dead in middle, i was a bit disheartend. But that doesn't i mean didn't have fun.
My strategy didn't really come to being until it came to my first pick. 3 of the first 6 selections were goalies, so i elected to go with 2 strong metminders and work from there... I wanted a balanced team so im glad i was able to sneak in a quality forward before picking a second goalie.
2. What were your favorite picks? Which do you wish you could do over?
I liked where i got my top 4 wingers... And if Modano can bounce back, i like the way my 3 starting Centers look too. I thought i drafted a bit poorly coming down the stretch. Cooke, Carter and Whitney, Van Ryn and Markov could turn out real nice if things go my way, but i had other plans with those picks. I either got scooped right before thier selections, or just, upon hignsight, missed someone i would rather had instead.
3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?
R9's team looks good. If his goaltenders hold up, i think he's the one to beat. There's plently of scoring to go around and on more than one occasion, he selected a player that i thought for sure was on his way back to me. At times it seemed like he was working off the same list as i was...
4. What surprised you most about the draft?
There wasn't too much that surprised me about the way things went down outsdie of a couple of picks that i thought were intriquing.
. If you could start over, would you do anything differently?
I would have liked to have loaded up on more players from quality teams like Ottawa, Philly, Boston, Detroit and Colorado. Teams that know how to win and know how to score. I'm going to be relying on the NHL's new sense of parity very heavily. I may be in tough in the +/- category, but those numbers change so much from year to year, player to player, that you really can only just hope.
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| 6 | R9
Leader
ID: 02624472
Fri, Sep 30, 2005, 23:27
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1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?
Going into the draft, my first thought was "what can I do to give myself a chance at finishing 1st?' I figured alot of managers would be filling in their two goalies early, and if I went that route I'd really just be following the pack. Once my late draft position was made clear I decided on a different approach and decided to take as many offensive picks as I could. I was actually hoping to wait a bit longer on my goalies then I did, but with mMoses doing the same as me my hand was forced.
I didn't want to take any rookies (like Lehtonen) who could do amazing, but could also need some ajustment time to the NHL. Still, I had targeted a few goalies who I thought could slip: (in no particular order) Dipietro, Thibault, Grahame, Denis, Conklin, Roloson, Garon and Giguere. I wanted to take two of them, but as late as I could so that my offense would be loaded. Some went earlier then I figured they would, but I'm happy with the two I got. If they bust I'm obviously going to struggle, but that can be true of almost any of the non-top5 goalies. To be dealing with that from my 7th and 8th round picks instead of my 2nd and 3rd seems like the better deal to me.
2. What were your favorite picks? Which do you wish you could do over?
Obviously in hindsight I would've taken another stud winger if I'd known about Kovalchuk's contract nonsense. Supposedly they aren't too far appart, and I can only hope he really wants to play in the NHL. Otherwise my offense will take a big hit.
My favorite picks would have to be Mogilny in the 13th and Nedved in the 17th. Both are (for now) on their team's top line playing with other talented players, and have done well in the past. To get them relatively late in the draft provides me some solid depth to handle injuries and holdouts.
My worst picks are probably Boynton (12th) if he doesn't sign and Cairns (19th). I could've had Cammalleri in the 19th instead (he was on my queue for a long while, but I took Nedved instead). My lack of defense depth will likely have me scouring the WW all year to handle any injury there.
3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?
I like Beezer's team as it seems very well rounded. Strong offensive D-men and solid 'tending. Still, his forwards lack some obvious firepower (mostly because he drafted alot of D and G early instead) and that might be hard to overcome if none of them breakout.
mMoses has alot of firepower, but curiously his 3rd LW and RW slots are highly speculative. Probably the easiest spots to fill off the wire though, and Moses is always one of the more active WW dudes. Goaltending will be a serious weak point all year, unless he gets lucky with Fleury.
Dienesty's team looks really solid top-to-bottom. Van Ryn and Markov were two dudes I was expective to fall to me, and thus why I'm starting Carins atm. ;) His biggest weakness is probably +/-, but thats based on 03/04 stats and with so many teams changing alot of players its a very speculative stat for now.
4. What surprised you most about the draft?
Probably that mMoses went for the same 'no early goalie' stategy as me! Also the Kolzig trade. While I agree that Kolzig is starting, that's probably not a good thing. The more games he starts the more his awful GAA and SAV% will affect PD's ratios. To me, he's like having a SP in baseball who gets 200 IP of 5.00 ERA 1.40 WHIP. No thanks. :)
If you could start over, would you do anything differently?
I would just take St. Louis over Ilya in round 1. The threat of 0 pts from my 1st round pick is enough to make me wish we WERE restarting. ;) Would also probably spend more time on my last few picks, even if they will end up on the WW soon enough anyway...
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| 7 | tommyd
ID: 46928248
Sat, Oct 01, 2005, 10:01
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1. What was your plan/ strategy?
To pick players that would contribute is all categories. I was hoping to get a top forward and goalie with my first two picks. Unfortunately both Kipper and Nabokov did not make it back to me in the second round. In the late rounds I tried to get value, I'm pretty sure I've got too many mash units on my team though.
2.Favorite picks/ do over?
Iginla is a top 5 in my book and I really think Jason Blake could have a breakout year. Do overs : I would not have taken Jason Allison so early, although if he plays he could be a good pick.
3. Teams I like the most?
I think R9 has a strong team if his goalies can hold up and also mMoses.
4. What surprised you about the draft?
Some of the backup goalie picks in the early rounds really surprised me.
5. If you could start over what would you do differently?
Not take as many injusy prone players ie Allison, Yzerman and Roberts. Steve was a homer pick though as he is my favorite player so I would do that again.
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| 8 | C.SuperFreak
Sustainer
ID: 53771616
Tue, Oct 04, 2005, 00:01
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1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?
This is a strange year; 3 years worth of rookies, the olympics, player retirements, free agent movement and a new look to the game. All factors to consider.
After realizing that I had last/first pick in the draft I focussed on the positions that I thought could solidify positions that everyone else would be fighting over as the rounds progressed, namely goaltending and defence. I had a plan of grabbing two top notch goalies with my b2b picks. However that was partially scrubbed when the top tiered (in my opinion) goalies had been snatched up. I ended up with a choice of Kipper or Nabokov. I chose Kipper. I didn't consider that goalies would go so early with all the big name forwards out there.
Another priority on my list is to attempt to draft a team that could remain injury free. I believe I did that, but after reviewing the current injuries, i may have to dip into the FA market sooner than later.
2. What were your favorite picks? Which do you wish you could do over?
Fave: Martin St. Louis. 1.14 pick.
Fave: Patrice Bergeron. 13.14 pick.
Too Early: Antero Niittymaki. 12.01. This might be a break or bust. It all depends on how Esche performs.
Worst: Pavel Vorobiev. 17.14 Yikes what was I thinking. Actually I had read a boxscore the previous day (before drafting him) and he lit it up, so I overreacted. Stupid.
3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?
mMoses, hands down, the pickup of Datsyuk solidified his team.
4. What surprised you most about the draft?
Goalies. Goalies. Goalies. I thought we'd clear at least 2 rounds before the feeding frenzy started.
Still scratching my head over the Kolzig/2 pick trade.
5. If you could start over, would you do anything differently?
Yes, I wouldn't be so jumpy to pick up 3 defensemen so early. They are quality guys but I really sacrificed all my offense for those 3 d guys.
Audit Barilko's method of how he came up with the draft order! :)
Great draft, slow at times, but that's the way it is after going 1 year without pro hockey.
Good group of participants. Cheers.
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| 9 | barilko6
ID: 10839137
Tue, Oct 04, 2005, 10:44
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re post 8, point 5....
blame the draft order on Philly!!! haha, I wish I had been more at the bottom, but I guess with the way things played out, players could have been had at any spot.
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