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0 Subject: RGFHL 9 Draft Recap Thread

Posted by: C.SuperFreak
- [508511519] Tue, Sep 24, 2013, 21:59

Alrighty RGFHL managers it's time do your part and keep the Rotoguru hockey forum off life support and add some analysis to your draft.

Who knows it could lead to a future as a hockey analyst on ESPN, TSN, Sportsnet etc. I don't know if other users read our stuff but it is our only opportunity to understand our rival managers plan and strategy for this years draft.

It's also a place to look back on our decisions and predictions. Purely optional but if you would like to post your thoughts on this years draft then have at it.

Your best value pick:
Your riskiest pick:
Thoughts on your own team:
Sleeper pick on your team:
Sleeper pick of the draft:
Name the manager who stole the one player you had really wanted:
Name that player:
Thoughts on other teams:

Predict the top 3 mgrs:
First:
Second:
Third:

Cup Winner:

Other noteworthy items:
1filthy
      ID: 4157202
      Wed, Sep 25, 2013, 02:22
Your best value pick:
I seem to not find value very well the last couple years. Always digging a big hole early, but I hope I found some gems this year. Tried to pick offense earlier, as that was my previous year's drafting weakness. Always fixing one hole and creating another though. Hopefully I don't have too many glaring weaknesses this year. Of my last 3 forwards, I'd say Steen has a good chance of being a good value pick for me. He seems healthy and if that lasts, he could be the key to the Blues' offense. Abdelkader could be huge if he sticks with the big guns, but I'm not banking on it for the whole season. Heatley, could be huge but I'm not banking on it either. Hoping he stays dependable, I like what the Wild are doing. Really like my Pominville pick too. He might be the real value pick if the other 3 all bomb out. For defense, Wiercioch should be a steal for my 3rd guy, plus I think I'm really gonna like Seth Jones. For ultimate value, I think I'd say Seth Jones in the 15th will be my value pick of the draft. For keeper value, I think Yakupov is gonna bust out and make the 4th round look silly.


Your riskiest pick:
Any of Duchene, Yakupov, Skinner could flop for me. Pretty early for banking on so many youth cornerstones on offense. Duchene in the 2nd might backfire on me, as well as Varlamov as my 3rd goalie, the Avs are a big question mark this year. Could be brutal all around? Hopefully not. I could be keeping all 3 of these guys next year, or stuck waiting on their potential all year this year. All my keeper choices are pretty risky as well, plus banking pretty heavy on the Wild, and Markov is due for an injury too. But even Sid has question marks, so I'm not terribly concerned.


Thoughts on your own team:
Kinda wish I could have locked up goaltending a bit better. But I bet we all wish that. Stayed strong and delayed on D enough to get some nice offensive depth this year. And I like my D despite the wait. Already got a couple bashers in there since I don't think I drafted much for PIMs. If one of those guys stick, I'll be alright. Lot of wild cards all around, but I like the looks of everything now that the smoke has cleared.


Sleeper pick on your team:
I really think Yakupov is going to be ridiculous this year now that he's settled. Like so many young Russians before him.


Sleeper pick of the draft:
I like Bogosian as a late sleeper, Michalek as a mid sleeper, and aside from Yakupov, Logan Couture should move into keeper territory as an early sleeper this year.


Name the manager who stole the one player you had really wanted:
Tommyd was stealing some good names from my wishlist in general.


Name that player:
Starting with Eberle in the 1st (even Seguin or Ryan would have been awesome to slip to me). Also, Ekman-Larsson, Johansson, Garrison. In addition, it was hard to let Landeskog go by, but after last year, it was best.


Thoughts on other teams:
All looks good for now. Until the real brutal goalies are revealed, and the gem sleeper goalies are found.


Predict the top 3 mgrs:
First: myself. I'd be crazy to want anything else at this point in time!
Second: Cobwebs. Those Sens look scary!
Third: Dienasty. Not looking ready to fall off the podium!


Cup Winner:
Sens. Looking scary! (Alfredsson tries to pout his way back at the trade deadline with Detroit struggling, but Sens say no!?!!)


Other noteworthy items:
Olympic year! My real favourite team will be in action, going for Gold again! My fave team from childhood, the Canucks, continue to alienate me. Nothing good since Linden left. And really since Bure left. And really ever, but right now is pretty aimless. Hard to get excited for them, especially when being bombarded with it only makes me less excited! Even the Leafs are more exciting right now, but that's not saying much, their excitement was costly. New divisions this year? Forgot until this moment. (My rust is showing! Still baseball season...) All for now. Good luck this season everybody, should be a good one again! Cheers.
2Goldcoach
      Leader
      ID: 9228209
      Wed, Sep 25, 2013, 21:29
Who was my best value pick:
Michal Neuvirth G Was round 16 *

My riskiest pick was (and still is):
Jacob Markstrom G Fl *
With Thomas at tryouts Jacob who still has options may be the odd man out. He was well liked by CBS hockey pundits so I took a flyer.

Thoughts on my team:
On paper not too bad; +/- might become an issue but I should be able to cope, lets just keep the injuries and suspensions (Clarkson) to a minimum!

Sleeper pick:
Troy Brouwer RW Was
I am expecting/hoping actually that Troy gets involved with some high octane offense here.

Sleeper Pick of the draft:
I am going with James Reimer G Tor.
I was looking to pick him up but did not want a fourth goalie that early, I expect he will win the most starts and do well for the Leafs (sorry about that I AM Canadian)

Manager who stole my player(s):
Has to be Cobwebs. Here is the * from questions 1 & 2
I was going for Tim Thomas (round 16) as my fourth goalie and as a handcuff to Markstrom in the event he was sent down. I had to change horses and took Neuvirth (surprised he was still there) as a handcuff to Holtby. Cobwebs also plucked Landeskog, Huberdeau, Shattenkirk and Tarasenko from the top of my queue. Either he’s a genius or….

Thoughts on the process:
I like this software, good work Fred! I think the draft should be opened 1 day before the actual start of the clock so that queues can be set by those in weird (to us) time zones. Draft ran smoothly on the whole. I try to keep a queue running about a rnd and a half ahead and this seemed to work well for me. Suspension of Clarkson for 10 games is a bummer. It forced me to pick a backup RW earlier than planned.

Top three finishers: (Not counting myself)
1. C Superfreak…Lots of offensive if Crosby stays healthy improved Goal tending over last year
2. Cobwebs …naturally; he has all the players I wanted.
3. The Dienasty…Pekka Rinne may be the best netminder out there; and I think Nashville will be improved enough to allow him to bring in solid G stats to go with a solid draft across the board.

Cup Winner: Pittsburg…with a healthy Crosby and Malkin if the shrink gives even a small dose of confidence to Fleury they’re in a good position to take it all.

3Cobwebs
      ID: 36843169
      Thu, Sep 26, 2013, 05:54
Your best Value pick:
Most of my picks were value picks but those that stood out were:
Landeskog (5.08), hoping for a bounceback season and not a Stastny-like demise.
Huberdeau (9.08), the Calder Trophy winner who is now bigger and stronger and should continue to improve this season.
Kulikov (17.08), back from shoulder surgery, has great upside, good value for a last round pick.
Tim Thomas (16.07), was planning on handcuffing Rask here but since his backup was not anointed yet I had to look elsewhere. Thomas is 39 but still in good shape, so if he can come close to his previous numbers he could end up with more starts than Markstrom. This late in the draft it's a low risk high reward situation.

Your riskiest pick:
My riskiest pick was when I chose Spezza over Nash as my keeper. Spezza is always an injury risk, and now he's got a new linemate in Ryan, and he's the new captain, so lots of question marks here.
MacKinnon (12.05), don't know what I'll get here, playing on the third line, a hip flexor injury that could bother him during the season, but he is a #1 draft pick so I'm hoping that he can produce.

Thoughts on your own team:
The plan was to pick Ryan first and then not get caught up in picking iffy goalies early but instead build a strong base for my forwards and d-men. The first 10 rounds were difficult for me because I was on the road in Scotland and didn't have time to do research, so I had to trust my instincts instead.
I wasn't happy with picking Tarasenko at 10.07, it was my last pick in Scotland and I rushed it, he's a good player but should have gone with Clowe or a D-man instead.
For the most part I tried to go with value and focus on players with the higher SOG. As usual I missed out on PIM-players. Injuries to Karlsson and Spezza ruined last season for me, hopefully I can avoid the injury bug this time and be a contender inspite of bad PIM.

Sleeper pick on your team:
My only sleeper pick is Silfverberg (15.08), if he can continue to progress and work himself up to the top line with Perry and Getzlaf, the points will come.

Sleeper pick of the draft:
Everyone likes Beau Bennett (Taxman 14.02) as a sleeper. Playing with Malkin or Crosby will inflate his numbers.
I like Tyson Barrie (tommyd 14.04) as a sleeper. Erik Johnson never seems to get it in gear and produce offensively like he should, Barrie got the chance to QB the PP last spring for a few weeks, and has great upside to rack up points in a full season.

Name the manager who stole the one player you had really wanted and name that player:
Would have liked to have gotten Pacioretty (Goldcoach 2.10) but couldn't resist getting Weber (2.05), Would have taken Max in round 3 had he fallen to me.
The run on d-men that started at the end of round 10 had really emptied my Q, only Goligoski was left and IAC took him.

Thoughts on other teams:
A few things surprised me, CSF being the first manager to fill his D, LittleM waiting a long time to fill his D. There were some players taken too early but that's not surprising any more.
All teams look really good and its hard to pick the top 3. It will be a competitive season.

Predict The Top 3:
First: CSF, now even with a strong D and goalies will make the difference
Second: The Dienasty, by order of merit
Third: Any of the remaining teams, impossible to predict

Cup Winner:
Montreal
4tommyd
      ID: 28237206
      Thu, Sep 26, 2013, 09:07
Your best Value pick: I think Kassian(if he stays with the Sedins) could be a great pick. Nyquist could be a nice pick as well, he was great in the playoffs and Detroit's main guys are getting older Also Johannson who is playing with OV and Backstrom.


Your riskiest pick:
Probably Semin - keeper talent but bad attitude and could regress again after a bit of a bounce back year. Also Dubnyk if the Oilers don't take their next step forward.

Thoughts on your own team:
I think my top end guys are pretty good - Hall, Stamkos and Anderson are solid keepers. Eberle has potential to be anoher keeper for years to come. I would have really liked a solid 4th dmen after Erhoff but the run on them ruined those plans so I picked a few different yonger players hoping that one will break out. IMO I have 3 solid goalies and had Ramo in my que for the 4th one but he was snagged. In retro Galchenyuk might have been too high a pick, probably a year too early.
Sleeper pick on your team:
Johannson(10.04)will have a big year for the reasons stated above.

Sleeper pick of the draft:
Dienasty with Brassard, Jordan Stall is a great pick in the 14th. Seth Jones - Rocket Richard.

Name the manager who stole the one player you had really wanted and name that player:
Wiercioch- Rocket Richard, also Dienasty with Kunitz who I just assumed was a keeper.

Thoughts on other teams:
Cobwebs with a lot of rookie,second year players. Dienasty has some nice vets in the last couple of rounds. IAC got some nice dmen with later picks. CSF with the best keepers in the league will be strong.

Predict The Top 3:
First: CSF really like the keeper pick ups. Especially if Bobrovksy maintains.
Second: The Dienasty, by order of merit - ditto
Third: I like Rocket Richards team.

Cup Winner:
Detroit
5The Dienasty
      ID: 23847120
      Thu, Sep 26, 2013, 14:13
This is was the toughest draft ever in RGFHL, without a doubt.

Best value pick:
14.01 O'reilly, Ryan (COL)
I remember noting very early when training camps began that word was O'reilly would get a spot on Colorado's top line next to Matt Duchene. Then the draft began and i completely forgot about him until the 14th round, when unbelievably he was still sitting there on my draft board. I kind of envision a Tavares/Moulson light version potentially happening here, and with his skill and i can see it happening. I've got him pegged for about 60 pts, and in the 14th round, that's not bad for a depth forward with C/LW eligibility.

Riskiest pick:
7.12 Tlusty, Jiri (CAR)
I owned Tlusty last season, and he had a great year for a waiver wire pickup. But a lot of luck went his way last year; a sweet gig on Eric Staal's and line and one of the league top shooting %'s to go with it. I feel he can produce again this year, but when i look back on a couple of the players taken after him, i feel like i could have locked down a more sure bet than Tlusty. Most notably, Milan Michalek who's the player i should have drafted, who also went off the board immediately after i picked Tlusty.

Thoughts on your own team:
As mentioned off the top, this draft was unbelievably difficult. If everyone else was in fact going off of queue's most of the time, it sure as hell didn't feel like it. I normally make it a point to focus on value picks at every opportunity, but it just didn't open up at all this year. Everyone seemed to be working off the same spread sheet.

I like my goaltending the most. Pairing a strong statisical goalie like Pekka Rinne with another one who won't hurt those stats too much in Kari Lehtonen was a priority for me. Both goalies should get the bulk of the starts for their respective teams and that makes day-to-day roster management much, much easier. i'm pleased with my depth with Steve Mason and Khabibulin, one is fighting for a starting job on a competitive team, the other a back up on the leagues best team.

My forwards are a mixed bag, the top end scoring should be secure and reliable (Staal, Getzlaf, Kunitz, Marleau and Letang) but the middle of the line up im not so sure about. Tlustly, Parenteau, Hodgson and Stewart have all got question marks to me ranging from previous inconsistency to relying too heavily on quality linemates. I'd be happy to have an offense that ranks in the top half. Overall, i'd say i accomplised most of what i set out to do, except with players i didn't expect to do it with. I'd be ecstatic with a top 3 finish.

Sleeper pick on your team:
11.12 Brassard, Derick (NYR)
Ever since joining the New York Rangers he's been putting up 1st line center type of production, and although he isn't actually one in NYR, if feel he's on the right track to become one. I'm hoping here for 60-65 pts in a breakout season.

Sleeper pick of the draft:
7.07 Nugent-hopkins, Ryan (EDM)
There's a lot to pick from here. I like where LittleM picked up Grabovski and tommyd grabbed Johansson. Infact, the entire 10th round is full of sleepers and potential game changers. But i think Nugent Hopkins going in the 7th is the biggest sleeper of all when you're looking at a guy who showed near point per game ability not too long ago, and is on the rise.
Name the manager who stole the one player you had really wanted:
9.08 Huberdeau, Jonathan (FLA)
Huberdeau would have slotted in real nice into my 2LW slot, but Cobwebs went and spoiled that party. Nice pick.

Thoughts on other teams:
Like in previous years, there's a lot of balanced rosters going into the season again. I thought Cobwebs and IAMCANADIAN had great drafts. A lot of spread out offense and multi-dimensional guys who i like to draft myself. CSF's keepers were the best of the best and i also thought he rounded out real well, especially with the D. Ira is also strong, im pretty much a fan of his drafts every year it seems. Taxman's team is also formidable again. I think the rest of us will have work to do to catch those 5, for now.

Predict the top 3 mgrs:
First: IAMCANADIAN
Second: CSF
Third: Cobwebs

Cup Winner:
San Jose Sharks

Other noteworthy items:
Let's do this.
6I_AM_CANADIAN
      ID: 14615220
      Thu, Sep 26, 2013, 20:12
Your best Value pick:
Mikko Koivu in the 6th?

Your riskiest pick:
Jonathan Bernier in the 4th if it ends up a major timeshare or if Reimer wins the job.

Thoughts on your own team:
I think Goaltending is an issue, and that's too bad, since I had a ton of real quality keepers... but we can only keep 1. I think the Defence is strong, and I'm think I've covered enough PIMs to keep me competitive with Lucic and Dubinsky.

Sleeper pick on your team:
Brandon Dubinsky - Playing on an explosive first line w/Gaborik, and has a nice "edge" to his game too. I think he can way out produce his 10th Round status.

Sleeper pick of the draft:
Silfverberg or Tim Thomas both really stand out to me.

Name the manager who stole the one player you had really wanted and name that player:
Can't remember any specifics, since I normally had some pretty long queues, but whoever shored up the quality goalies before I did.

Thoughts on other teams:
I'm way to wet around the ears for that... from what I can tell so far, Cobwebs (who drafted next to me) looks playoff worthy.

Predict The Top 3:
1. Cobwebs
2. SuperFreak
3. IAC?
;)

Cup Winner: New York Rangers
I've been a fan since I don't know when... and they've "under-achieved" many a year since 1994. I think they've got a great nucleus for this year.
7Taxman
      ID: 458432717
      Sat, Sep 28, 2013, 19:12
Your best value pick: Pick 12.02 Detroit RW, Daniel Alfredsson should thrive in the Detroit system, always a solid +/- guy and a veteran point producer. Looking at his age, last year's fall off looks like his skills are declining...but he played 41 0f 46 games w/o Spezza at center. Having Weiss and possibly Datsyuk (should Abdelkader not produce) DA will be good for @ 50 points with 15 or so coming on power play.


Your riskiest pick: Pick 5.11 Brad Richards, C, NYR I'm hoping for a bounce back season...otherwise, there were better investments on the board.

Thoughts on your own team: My thoughts begin with ha-ha. Funny team that is unlike my prior drafts. Usually I look for SOG and PIM. This team s/b in the running for the Lady Bing and SOG will be middle of pack. Focused on the two areas that I lost huge ground final month last season...Asst and PPP and I tried to stay away from big minus +/= players (like Schultz whom I took @4.02). I'm hopeful with goalies potential, although I'd rather have Lehtonen, than Miller. Inexplicably, I was blinded by that bright shiny object Parise that looks so good, but never quite dominates, using 1st pick, allowing Dienasty to grab the big L leaving Miller as the booby prize for having made a goofy choice. Short summary, this team could contend, but it will not dominate. Somewhere, somehow, I have to upgrade my keepers (same keepers the last 3 seasons) and hope they don't break (Sharp or Malkin).

Sleeper pick on your team: @ 14.02 Beau Bennett, RW, PIT. Currently is playing (well so far) with Malkin and Neal line.

Sleeper pick of the draft: Little M's TB draft picl Jonathan Druin. He will be a star, maybe not this year, and a probable keeper.


Name the manager who stole the one player you had really wanted: IRA

Name that player: @ 11.05 Slava Voynov Talented young puck moving D man that could have a Schultz type break out year w/o the negative +/-. I wanted to take him in 10th round but opted for DET C Weiss instead hoping Voynov would slide to me @11.11.

Thoughts on other teams: It seems that this year more D drafted in early rounds with 1 in 1st, 2 in 2nd, 3 in 3rd and 6 in 4th. That's a lot of F passed over. Last season, I had Pavelski, Marleau and Couture and they started were on fire early season, but were pretty quiet from then on. All were picked by middle of round 4 this year and I went for Thornton. So by now you can tell I have little to say about the other teams. CSF strong and deep with great Goalies: Gold Coach could be a sleeper due to solid top 2 Goalies an could surprise but seems short on depth; PD could have dominant Goalies and productive D, but team has more grit than fire power; if Schneider can retire Brodeur, Little M will be competitive and if his young players show up, he can surprise, IAC is loaded for bear, but needs Bernier (or another G) to break out to be competitive; Cobwebs also loaded, but only 1 (maybe best) Goalie will hurt...if he comes up with another G, he can win; TD almost back doored for a win last year and still has formidable offense...he can compete again if another Goalie appears to help Anderson; RR needs offensive production that matches his Goalies to win; Wolfer lacks high powered offense to match his Goalies; ans Dienasty can repeat with solid Goal keeping and production from his deep roster


First: CSF
Second: Cobwebs
Third: Dienasty

me ... 4th

Cup Winner: Ice lizards (Penguins)

Other noteworthy items:Best draft ever. Everyone was focused and as others said..seemed as if we all had same cheat sheets
8Ira
      ID: 782467
      Wed, Oct 02, 2013, 04:47
Your best value pick: Pick 7.05 David Krejci
Picking a 60-point center in the 7th round is good value. Nuff said.

Your riskiest pick: Pick 8.08 Ray Emery
Could easily go bust like every other goalie that plays for the Flyers. I waited too long for an insurance #3 goalie and he was the only one left expected to get 40+ games this year.

Thoughts on your own team: Possibly the most risk-free draft I've done in the Rotoguru leagues. Not really hinging my production on bounce-back or injury-prone players for once. I feel I had a strong draft, but I feel most of us did. I hate that Cam Ward has been my keeper goalie for the past however many years. Hopefully this is the year it changes (I say this every year). Goaltendings been holding my team back since joining this league but I think Luongo's going to surprise everyone this year and return to top-5 status. If my goaltending holds up, I think I stand a good chance in the other categories.

Sleeper pick on your team: @ 16.08 Brendan Gallagher
Hoping for a breakout year. Could easily be a 30-30 guy this year with decent PIM. I'm expecting him to get a lot of top-6 time and the Habs are stacked with skilled forwards.

Sleeper pick of the draft: Little M 15.06 Mikail Grabovski
Not a bad start for him. He'll get ample PP time with Backstrom and Ovechkin and could easily be a top 5 round pick next year.

Name the manager who stole the one player you had really wanted: PermDude

Name that player: @ 9.04 Sam Gagner
I felt pretty luck to get all the players lined up for each pick, and this was the only one that I had stolen from me. 1 pick before me. Guy could have a huge year playing with Yakupov. I guess it worked out for me as he broke his jaw shortly after the draft.

Thoughts on other teams:
I really loved IAC's team….until I saw the goaltending. One of Bernier or Bishop will have to come up big, and the league belongs to IAC. Big hill to climb though. tommyd has huge potential. Galcheyuk, Johansson, Kassian, Eberle, Dubnyk. If those guys perform, look out. Cobewbs looks to be the most rounded but could suffer in PIM and needs Fasth to get the starts. Taxman has the safest team and will have the reliable vets to keep him competitive.

First: tommyd
Second: Cobwebs
Third: Taxman


Cup Winner: Penguins still the favorite for me
9filthy
      ID: 4157202
      Sat, Oct 19, 2013, 23:12
Yakupov gets the filthyrich curse! But getting to play with Eberle in an attempt to break the curse might work out perfect in the long run?! Seems more like he'll be a prima donna... like so many Russians before him!

10% self report card:
Datsyuk, MRichards, Skinner, Benn, Steen, Duchene, Pominville, Abdelkader, DRoy, Yakupov as my forwards. Cut Heatley and added DRoy since draft. I was way off about the Wild in general, though Heatley was quickly scooped up. Not willing to wait after last year's down year. Wouldn't mind adding a RW with grit if anyone's in the trade market. Datsyuk, Skinner, Benn, Steen, Duchene, and surprisingly still Yakupov having high value to me. MRichards, Pominville, Abdelkader, DRoy all moveable. Skinner and Duchene both looking like they might be good keeper options so far, which makes me feel smart, but the overall hype I had for Yakupov really brings me back down to earth. I'm not quite a blind squirrel, but pretty close! Datsyuk, well I've been on the fence about him as a keeper forever, but he always stays, and he seems better than ever now, I'm gonna just go ahead and name him as one of my keepers for next year right now:)

Byfuglien, Markov, SJones, Wiercioch, Lindholm, Irwin, Fraser(IR) as my D corps. Cut Bouwmeester, and BDillon, IR'ed Fraser, added Lindholm and Irwin. Sharks seem incredible, I really like the Irwin pickup. Jones is looking awesome. The rest have been about what I expected. Lindholm is a huge wild card. Really hyped for Fraser to come back and give me a PIM boost! I think I value all of these guys pretty high, but would definitely be willing to include one in a deal.

MSmith, NBackstrom, Varlamov, Harding, Giguere as the goaltending team. Added Giguere since the draft. Varlamov has been so great that I had to add his backup! Thankfully I already had Backstrom's backup, as he's been a huge dud. Harding has been as much of a beast as Backstrom has been bust though. And Smith is about as expected, up and down, but generally pretty good. Backstrom and/or Harding are very tradeable. The rest, probably not.

All for my team... Taxman in the lead, and looking tough to beat. Niemi is carrying teams this year! Sharks look real tough. I'm liking the Blues, Pens, Sens as division winners elsewhere. Usually I'm way off, so hopefully I get to laugh at my picks later.
10Perm Dude
      ID: 339541411
      Sun, Oct 20, 2013, 00:16
Wow, I've never seen a more effective jinx of a guy. Taxman with a -12 as I type this, dropping to 5th place.
11filthy
      ID: 4157202
      Sun, Oct 20, 2013, 14:44
Wow, sorry buddy! I'm sure I jinxed many of my own players if my mojo is indeed that good.
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